Hardware Furukawa on next gen Switch: still thinking about the concept of the machine, too early to talk about it, current Switch still in mid life

[Skittzo]

wait what's the actual issue then

I thought people were just making fun of bloomberg and at worst not believing them

Nah it's the growing anger and outright hostility towards any and all reporting from both Bloomberg and Nikkei by a surprisingly large number of people. Like, we had someone on this very website temporarily banned for wanting to dunk on something very much true and rather innocuous Nikkei recently reported. Another person here tried to somehow tie in Jason Schreier to all of this to claim he's somehow on an anti Nintendo crusade.

It's not simply people joking or not believing these articles, it's devolved into outright toxicity and conspiracy theories.

 

[NateDrake]

There were separate rumors of ADEV that showed up well after the 4k DLSS ones started. I don't think we have any solid evidence anyone outside of Nintendo knew of ADEV before maybe June or so, when the 4k DLSS ones had already been going for around half a year at that point.

ADEV kits were not available for order/request until the OLED was confirmed. No developer contact of mine was even aware the OLED revision was coming to market. All were surprised by it because that was not the hardware they had been working with. No developer is confusing a base Switch devkit, with no extra benefits beyond a slight RAM boost, with a devkit with 4K output and DLSS support.

The ADEV kits are not required for development, either. The extra RAM can assist in debugging and other processes; but ADEV is not the devkit that went out in late 2020.

It's insulting to think Bloomberg & Nikkei didn't do their due diligence to verify such things, tbh.

 

[Supreme Overlord]

Quite clear their software investment will be to drive sales for the Switch going forward. I still expect a Switch 2 in 2023 at the latest.

At the same time, hardware sales will have to meet a limit at some point. Something like the Switch actually sees more leeway with that --being both a personal console someone might want for just oneself and also good for family, friends, or party gaming, as well as upgrades being seen as more feasible based on that personal handheld aspect--, but it's definitely something that will have to be kept in mind. Software sales will likely be the driving factor, at some point, especially given the attach rate.

And I was trying not to pull this in right away, but as ever it is relevant, but I can see the eventual new hardware even pushing those same software sales. Especially without the two separate and incompatible lines of hardware, and with the likelihood of backward compatibility, it seems likely a lot of the software will continue to sell for the current Switch but then will also be selling for the new device as well. I do expect a lot of the library to overlap.
The Switch can continue its lifecycle long after the next hardware arrives.

Nintendo's talking a lot, but they're not really saying all that much. Some loosely collected thoughts on the matter:

Yup, exactly. On the hardware front, the statements don't really say much anything either way.

"Successor" is a term with a lot of baggage that means different things to different people.

I keep bringing this up to no avail, so I'm just going to sit back here and reference your wisdom.

Because this can't be repeated enough: While it is sometimes true that consoles drop dead when their successor releases, this is not a necessary component of the transition.

And Nintendo is in a different situation than it was during those times, too, where they don't have anything to fall back on if they kill off a console to supplant it with another. They had situations in the past where they continued to support hardware after the next thing released, but now not doing so would be an incredible risk. To kill off one console and then have the other utterly fail?
Again, it seems much more likely that the current Switch will continue to be supported, and that this support will also serve whatever comes next. This mitigates the risk.

There were separate rumors of ADEV that showed up well after the 4k DLSS ones started. I don't think we have any solid evidence anyone outside of Nintendo knew of ADEV before maybe June or so, when the 4k DLSS ones had already been going for around half a year at that point.

And there's this. What's suggested is a lot more incompetence than the conflation of information from two different types of sources (developers and production pipelines). It's suggesting that all the information from one type of source has been misinterpreted and not followed up upon. One is an easily understood mistake that really should have been avoided, and the other is outright incompetence. Nobody making the games would even find the OLED kit worth commenting on in such a way as to cause this confusion.
The suggestion doesn't make sense.

wait what's the actual issue then

I thought people were just making fun of bloomberg and at worst not believing them

Nope, people outright find these outlets to be malicious and out to get Nintendo. There have been accusations of information being made up for this purpose, even in reports wherein there are specific details that can't just be waved away as "plans change" (which, plans can and do, but this has received a bad rap from people using it as an excuse for stuff they did make up, and so when they legitimately do it's still taken as indication that the outlet made stuff up) -- which is why I keep pointing to the 11 developers as sources, which is absolutely either true or false and would be a big scandal if it were made up, but which I do see people indicate absolutely is a complete falsehood.

It's a thing of people not understanding how journalism works or trusting it at all.
And it snowballs from there.
These outlets have been wrong in different ways before, this is true, but this all goes far beyond that.

...

Anyhow, yeah, Switch software sales are promising, and will likely continue for some time to come, continuing the Switch's lifespan for years to come, even after new hardware releases.
Putting your games on Switch is a good idea. Give me all the games I personally desire.

 

[GamerJM]

I don't understand how they can say that the Switch is "in the middle of its lifespan" like three years in a row when it launched in 2017. If that's the case now then it was still closer to the beginning than the middle when they first said that in like 2019 or whatever. I feel like either covid heavily impacted successor's plans or they're being very liberal with the definition of "mid life" here.

 

[fwd-bwd]

Note: None of my points below are that serious. We are only talking about an unreleased gaming console after all.

When you have "4K on OLED" in reporting and then OLED doesn't have 4K, then there was some serious deficiencies in that reporting from a sensationalist press.

Did you just call Nikkei and Bloomberg sensationalist press? Surely you jest.

It's especially frustrating when there's a continual narrative of Switch about to fall off a cliff and third parties abandon it en masse which goes against the reality of what's happening.

Neither Bloomberg or Nikkei claimed that "Switch about to fall off a cliff and third parties abandon it en masse". Bloomberg described the 2021 sales as "dwindling" (it means "gradually diminishing" in the dictionary), which isn't wrong.

the thing that hits me the most is that, out of all developers, ZYNGA is probably the last one to get early prototype devkits. they barely make any console games. they have zero importance in the current industry nor do they have any history with nintendo. they are only making a star wars f2p for mobile and switch next year and i don't see why they would somehow be one of the earliest developers with access to the future of nintendo

The Zynga inclusion is very strange. Maybe the next hardware is trying to be more than a Switch, and they are trying to create more mobile experiences for it? Otherwise I can't imagine that they're part of the earliest push.

The namedropping of Zynga actually makes the report more credible. As you observed, Zynga is not the usual suspect when it comes to next-gen (I'm using the word loosely) console games; it Bloomberg is making shit up, Zynga would not be the one to build a narrative upon.

As gaming enthusiasts we often discount the mobile games out of hand without realizing that some biggest games on the planet are mobile: Genshin, Honor of Kings, etc. The release of Pokemon Unite indicates that the importance of multiplat "mobile" games isn't lost on TPC/Nintendo.

Another point to consider is that Switch is the only current platform that does not have a modern Star Wars game. It got Marvel (MUA3 and Guardians Cloud) and DC (Super Hero Girls and Universe Online), but no Star Wars (not counting Lego or Pinball). Thus, having the Star Wars license probably allowed Zynga early access to the new devkit, and emboldened them to talk with Bloomberg. This brings me to the next point ...

You know I listened to the Kinda Funny Games Daily and they talked about how Switch would lose 3rd party support

The alternative could be that this thing is much further along than it ought to be, and it's been pushed back a bunch. But if that were the case, I imagine we'd actually know more about it. It's definitely a weird situation

Bloomberg did report that it's been pushed back, and some developers are not happy about it. This uncertainty, discontent even, might partly motivated these 11 devs to speak with Bloomberg. The Japanese version of the Bloomberg story stated that "複数のゲーム会社幹部は、もし発売が撤回されれば任天堂に対する信頼を損なうことになると述べた。" (Several game company executives said that if the launch is withdrawn, it will undermine the trust in Nintendo.) It somehow was omitted from the English version, making it seem like a message directed squarely at Kyoto.

I previously meant to point to the underlying assumptions and contentions and how they led to reading particular elements into the statements presented in the OP, and how that led to the thread being framed more as a rebuttal against the idea of new hardware releasing anytime soon than as a focus on the statements themselves. I still maintain that the statements were read into and the summaries editorialized as a result.

Agreed. The chart and the comments from Nintendo are most likely describing a brand new console/concept further into the future instead of the "next gen Switch", but many posters here chose to read it differently. The reason that Wii U or 3DS was excluded from the chart was not due to their disappointing sales, but their close adjacency to Wii and DS. The "20XX" console would be something very different from Switch.

Lastly, that David Gibson tweet ("On next gen, we are not saying right now, we are still going through internal discussion on concept, timing etc and discussing everything") may be a misquote, because it is not in the official Q&A transcript at all. Edit: My bad. I just realized that I miss the last paragraph when translating the investor Q&A, which corresponds to what David Gibson wrote. I'll update my translation.

 

[Skittzo]

I don't understand how they can say that the Switch is "in the middle of its lifespan" like three years in a row when it launched in 2017. If that's the case now then it was still closer to the beginning than the middle when they first said that in like 2019 or whatever. I feel like either covid heavily impacted successor's plans or they're being very liberal with the definition of "mid life" here.

Mid life in this case (as I've been saying for years) is referring to the three phases of a console's life- the beginning/growth phase, the middle/peak phase and the decline phase. We're still in the middle/peak phase.

 

[Abzeronow]

Mid life in this case (as I've been saying for years) is referring to the three phases of a console's life- the beginning/growth phase, the middle/peak phase and the decline phase. We're still in the middle/peak phase.

And we'll be in the peak phase until 2023 when Dane Switch gets announced for Holiday 2023 or Spring 2024. Nintendo will obviously try to time any significant upgrade or successor towards beginning of the decline phase.

 

[Oregano]

Neither Bloomberg or Nikkei claimed that "Switch about to fall off a cliff and third parties abandon it en masse". Bloomberg described the 2021 sales as "dwindling" (it means "gradually diminishing" in the dictionary), which isn't wrong.

That was clearly in reference to posts in this thread, and not something I claimed Bloomberg/Nikkei said.

 

[fwd-bwd]

That was clearly in reference to posts in this thread, and not something I claimed Bloomberg/Nikkei said.

Got it. Thank you for the correction.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I don't understand how they can say that the Switch is "in the middle of its lifespan" like three years in a row when it launched in 2017. If that's the case now then it was still closer to the beginning than the middle when they first said that in like 2019 or whatever. I feel like either covid heavily impacted successor's plans or they're being very liberal with the definition of "mid life" here.

I think people put way too much stock into investor speak, which is intentionally loose. they can't reveal everything so they never make any solid rhetoric because things change on a dime. "mid-life" means whatever Nintendo needs it to mean at the time, and since there's no legal definition, they can get away with it

 

[LoneRanger]

I’m not an insider but I think it would be smart for Nintendo to release a new switch hardware, capable of 4k resolutions with DLSS, in the next 18 months. So they can:

• Switch hardware wouldn’t feel outdated as they have a device that can max out 4k resolution (that is standard for current gen consoles).
• They can release a new wave of their 2017/early 2018 first party titles (new splatoon, zelda, xenoblade, kirby, bayonetta, mario kart, oh wait, some of those are already announced lol) that pushed OG Switch hardware to achieve maximum fidelity at cost of low resolution. Nobody would complain because they have the 4k model ready for those who want the best experience.
• Switch has sold really quick and pretty well worldwide, so Nintendo has a solid position with third parties and negotiations will be more easy
• If this machine is capable of pulling PS4 level ports with very easy, it would be smart to flood the next model with lots of past gen ports. Examples: COD from Activision, GTAV/RDR2 from Rockstar, RE Engine from Capcom, FFXV/VIIR/XVI or KH3 from Square-Enix, Elder Ring from Bandai-Namco, Madden/Fifa from EA, AC/WD/FC open world games from Ubisoft, Hogwarts Legacy/Gotham Knights from Warner Bros.

At the end, they can aim for a 180-200 million console market with a good chunk of PS4/XOne games + other generations content + multiple HD installments of their IPs (this includes WiiU ports) + previous sub HD Nintendo consoles (via NSO). That would be insane and may take a 10 year console span, but I think if Nintendo does the rights things, its possible. Switch family can truly be an ultimate console.

 

[Raccoon]

The Japanese version of the Bloomberg story stated that "複数のゲーム会社幹部は、もし発売が撤回されれば任天堂に対する信頼を損なうことになると述べた。" (Several game company executives said that if the launch is withdrawn, it will undermine the trust in Nintendo.) It somehow was omitted from the English version, making it seem like a message directed squarely at Kyoto.

oh my god

the idea that nintendo's difficulty nailing down hardware is damaging their relationships with third parties is not good

no matter what you believe, this whole situation is undeniably a mess

 

[Skittzo]

oh my god

the idea that nintendo's difficulty nailing down hardware is damaging their relationships with third parties is not good

no matter what you believe, this whole situation is undeniably a mess

Unless of course they haven't actually delayed anything and don't plan to do so.

 

[lemonfresh]

Forget Bloomberg lets hears what Nintendo has to say on the matter





I think that settles it

 

[ILikeFeet]

oh my god

the idea that nintendo's difficulty nailing down hardware is damaging their relationships with third parties is not good

no matter what you believe, this whole situation is undeniably a mess

this is no less a mess than most launches. coordinating around launches is expensive, so if things change, you will piss someone off. let's not assume things are dire so immediately

 

[Terrell]

They aren't as cagey as you think. Lumen isn't coming to Switch or XBO and PS4. Nanite is supported however. The question is if DQ12 will make use of these features

OOOoo, I need the source there, cuz that's really good news if true.

Yeah this is the stuff I'm talking about. People somehow think that a more powerful console (keeping in mind it will still be a tablet, so it'll still be very underpowered compared to a PS5 or XSX, i think most people agree that whatever it is will be PS4 power at best) will means all those games are going to come to the next system but that's just not going to happen. Some more games would probably happen, but the bulk of the third party support will be the same games that are already on the Switch: AA games for the most part (be it both ports and original titles), some exclusive AAA titles, with late ports of some others AAA games, and many free-to-play titles. And clearly it's fine just like that.

Until Nintendo makes a standard box like PS5 and XSX, that situation won't change lol.

See, I remember people making the same argument against any AAA 3rd-party support on the exact same premise. But we live in a world where Wolfenstein Youngblood had a day-and-date release on Switch with other platforms. Such a thing would have been unfathomable in late 2016. I would have been one of those people thinking that.
I don't think that anyone should reasonably expect total 1-to-1 parity in releases, that's obviously unrealistic. But more capable hardware opens better opportunities for expanding 3rd-party releases on Nintendo hardware.
This in line with Nintendo's aspirations to grow their 3rd-party relations, with Switch being a really positive first step in that process. The same investor presentation this Q&A response came from illustrated their happiness with the current state of 3rd-party releases, with 3rd-party packaged software exceeding Nintendo's own packaged software sales in FY2021.

You don't take that momentum and then go "ehh, whatever".

 

[Kano]

But we live in a world where Wolfenstein Youngblood had a day-and-date release on Switch with other platforms. Such a thing would have been unfathomable in late 2016. I would have been one of those people thinking that.

There will always be exceptions, but they have been very few and between. The amount of day and date AAA third party games is extremely, extremely small. You could probably easily list them all.

Also, the Switch version of Youngblood was awful. Unplayable mess.

 

[ILikeFeet]

OOOoo, I need the source there, cuz that's really good news if true.

documentation

• Lumen does not support current-generation consoles, such as PlayStation 4 and Xbox One.
  • Projects that rely on dynamic lighting can use a combination of Distance Field Ambient Occlusion and Screen Space Global Illumination on current-generation consoles and legacy PC hardware.
  • Lumen is developed for next-generation consoles (PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series S / X) and high-end PCs. Lumen has two ray tracing modes each with different requirements:
• Lumen does not support mobile platforms and there are no plans to develop a dynamic global illumination system for the mobile renderer. Games using dynamic lighting need to use unshadowed Sky Light on mobile.

Nanite is currently supported on PlayStation 5, Xbox Series S|X, and PCs with graphics cards meeting these specifications, using the latest drivers with DirectX 11 or 12:

• NVIDIA: Maxwell-generation cards or newer
• AMD: GCN-generation cards or newer

 

[NateDrake]

Unless of course they haven't actually delayed anything and don't plan to do so.

The implication by Bloomberg was more directed at the possibility of Nintendo delaying the hardware extensively or outright cancelling the device. No third-party partner wants to spend upwards of a yr and millions of dollars working on a project only to see the hardware be cancelled in the eleventh hour.

The facts remain as they did months ago: devkits went out in late 2020 to the priority partners. Another wave was sent around May/June 2021. Timing can change a bit in regards to a release window as third-parties target late 2022 but such changes have to be within reason.

 

[Skittzo]

The implication by Bloomberg was more directed at the possibility of Nintendo delaying the hardware extensively or outright cancelling the device. No third-party partner wants to spend upwards of a yr and millions of dollars working on a project only to see the hardware be cancelled in the eleventh hour.

The facts remain as they did months ago: devkits went out in late 2020 to the priority partners. Another wave was sent around May/June 2021. Timing can change a bit in regards to a release window as third-parties target late 2022 but such changes have to be within reason.

Yeah I assumed it wasn't based on anything typically likely. It seemed more like they said that bit to try and preemptively counter nintendo's own explicit narrative that they have no other device in the works.

Anyway the point of my response to Raccoon was that there's zero reason to believe anything is a mess or will be a mess.

 

[MisterSpo]

Timing for new hardware must also be a pain in the pandemic given the demand for components. Didn't this briefing also suggest Nintendo would adjust hardware plans based on component availability?

It shouldn't really need saying, but there are huge issues now that make a complex undertaking like launching new hardware even more difficult.

 

[NateDrake]

Yeah I assumed it wasn't based on anything typically likely. It seemed more like they said that bit to try and preemptively counter nintendo's own explicit narrative that they have no other device in the works.

Anyway the point of my response to Raccoon was that there's zero reason to believe anything is a mess or will be a mess.

It's to hedge their bets to cover for any uncertain change, essentially.

 

[Terrell]

documentation

Yeah, that says it supports PS5, Series X/S and PCs with Maxwell-generation cards or greater. I'm taking this to mean not all hardware using Maxwell architecture, just PC GPUs. The huge bulk of Maxwell-generation GPU cards are operating at a far greater capacity than the Tegra X1.

There will always be exceptions, but they have been very few and between. The amount of day and date AAA third party games is extremely, extremely small. You could probably easily list them all.

Also, the Switch version of Youngblood was awful. Unplayable mess.

I just don't buy the notion that they've made all these in-roads to get 3rd-party titles like they have to just give up on continuing to try pushing for more. All is not achievable in a hybrid format, but more certainly could be.

 

[Deleted member 645]

That doesn't make these responses any more logical or mature though. As you said these publications got most of the details right both times, Bloomberg just mixed up a couple details in their report this year. Treating them like some tabloid rag because Nintendo hasn't put out the spec bump people want is simply toxic entitlement.

it is what it is and sadly it’s not going to change anytime soon. This is a historic issue that happens over and over. I can remember the 3ds pre launch and”rumors” about how it being as powerful as ps360. In reality this was based on it running and having a version of street fighter 4. It’s like the people that are releasing information know how thirsty Nintendo faithful are for a powerful console. I should say a console at least as powerful as the other two. This is based on the GameCube. Nintendo fucked themselves because of that mini-disc. They could have really had every third party the other console had from a technical standpoint. Now we still see Nintendo faithful starving for a console that is in the same league and more importantly can run the games from third parties like Sony and Microsoft. It’s going to be an endless cycle until Nintendo and Nvidia does something. I personally love the switch architecture and what it was able to accomplish. I hope they up the game and really nail it with the switch 2/pro/4K.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Yeah, that says it supports PS5, Series X/S and PCs with Maxwell-generation cards or greater. I'm taking this to mean not all hardware using Maxwell architecture, just PC GPUs. The huge bulk of Maxwell-generation GPU cards are operating at a far greater capacity than the Tegra X1.

we know that mobile won't support nanite, but I doubt that's because the hardware explicitly can't. it's probably an issue with mobile's battery usage.

that said, I still don't see the multiple hundreds of thousands of triangle meshes being useful in a game. maybe rare cases like Horizon's robot animals which can go up to 500K triangles, but I have no idea if those models are deformable or not (and nanite can't be used for deformable objects)

 

[OpulentEmpress]

They raised the software forecast.

I saw that part, too, but still, raising the profit forecast while lowering the hardware by 1.5 million is huge.

 

[OpulentEmpress]

This also semi-confirms that Nintendo is a lot more sure of BotW 2's release date too.

If it's coming out before March 31st.

 

[Skittzo]

I saw that part, too, but still, raising the profit forecast while lowering the hardware by 1.5 million is huge.

They probably make more profit per software unit sold on average than hardware unit sold. Especially considering this software forecast doesn't include digital only games which often tend to have much lower prices.

Even if they make less profit per software unit (first party software they absolutely do but third party and possibly overall they may make less) 10 million more units of software is definitely enough extra profit to outweigh 1.5 million units of hardware.

Plus, that's not getting into any of their expenses, the forecast of which could easily have changed since 3 months ago.

 

[OpulentEmpress]

They probably make more profit per software unit sold on average than hardware unit sold. Especially considering this software forecast doesn't include digital only games which often tend to have much lower prices.

Even if they make less profit per software unit (first party software they absolutely do but third party and possibly overall they may make less) 10 million more units of software is definitely enough extra profit to outweigh 1.5 million units of hardware.

Plus, that's not getting into any of their expenses, the forecast of which could easily have changed since 3 months ago.

Nintendo likes to be conservative, so it should be interesting.

 

[Procheno]

Monolith Soft hit their limit the first year so...

Not true at all. If anything, they've yet to truly show what they can do due to various circumstances holding them back.

Xenoblade 2 was quite rushed and understaffed internally, requiring a lot of outsourcing.

XBCE was a smaller side project made by a newly formed side team that also had some workers split between DE and Xenoblade 3.

Xenoblade 3 will have the bigger budget, longer development time, and latest engine optimizations that have developed since XB2. Torna the Golden Country added better grass tech, depth of field was a new common feature to add production values. XBCE has better facial tech and lighting than the main cast of XB2

Edit: I saw you say you were joking lol

 

[OpulentEmpress]

They also upped their profit forecast to $4.6B despite lowering Switch projection numbers, by 6%, to 24 million.

Must have something huge and unannounced.

I'm all eyes and ears.

if they do have some huge and announced surprise game for this fiscal year, be a new 3D Donkey Kong!

 

[MisterSpo]

From Gamesindustry's reporting of Nintendo's figures:

In an analyst briefing, Nintendo executive Ko Shiota said that the "semiconductor situation is having some effect on hardware development", and that the firm is "looking at substitute components and tweaking designs to try and reduce the impact"

I didn't notice this statement in the briefing that's already been localised, but maybe I overlooked it. Alternatively it's from the Q&A, the official transcript of which is yet to be made available in English.

They also upped their profit forecast to $4.6B despite lowering Switch projection numbers, by 6%, to 24 million.

Must have something huge and unannounced.

I'm all eyes and ears.

Isn't this more a reflection of the improved software forecast? It could simply be that ongoing software sales are higher than Nintendo expected in their initial forecast - currency fluctuations might also played a part in a revised profit forecast.

I'd love an early 2022 surprise title out of nowhere (and sure, I don't think we can rule it out given Nintendo's history here), but there could be other explanations for this bump.

 

[Pineapple Pizza]

Music to my ears that the Switch is only mid-cycle. I have around 120 games last time I checked and only completed just over a third of them. I'm in no rush as long as the indies keep coming, and NSO keeps expanding. Very rarely have I thought about horsepower, and even then I wonder if it's more a lack of optimisation than anything. 2022's lineup might be the best yet, so plenty of life in the old dog yet. Furakawa and team are charting a very sustainable course indeed.

 

[Simba1]

Nintendo around two years now is saying mid-cycle for Switch, I mean if they said something like entered "end of life-cycle" that would bring huge problem to them, and people would start expecting new Switch hardware in few months.
So some people are really getting too much in that mid-cycle statement.

 

[Delio]

I’m not an insider but I think it would be smart for Nintendo to release a new switch hardware, capable of 4k resolutions with DLSS, in the next 18 months. So they can:

• Switch hardware wouldn’t feel outdated as they have a device that can max out 4k resolution (that is standard for current gen consoles).
• They can release a new wave of their 2017/early 2018 first party titles (new splatoon, zelda, xenoblade, kirby, bayonetta, mario kart, oh wait, some of those are already announced lol) that pushed OG Switch hardware to achieve maximum fidelity at cost of low resolution. Nobody would complain because they have the 4k model ready for those who want the best experience.
• Switch has sold really quick and pretty well worldwide, so Nintendo has a solid position with third parties and negotiations will be more easy
• If this machine is capable of pulling PS4 level ports with very easy, it would be smart to flood the next model with lots of past gen ports. Examples: COD from Activision, GTAV/RDR2 from Rockstar, RE Engine from Capcom, FFXV/VIIR/XVI or KH3 from Square-Enix, Elder Ring from Bandai-Namco, Madden/Fifa from EA, AC/WD/FC open world games from Ubisoft, Hogwarts Legacy/Gotham Knights from Warner Bros.

At the end, they can aim for a 180-200 million console market with a good chunk of PS4/XOne games + other generations content + multiple HD installments of their IPs (this includes WiiU ports) + previous sub HD Nintendo consoles (via NSO). That would be insane and may take a 10 year console span, but I think if Nintendo does the rights things, its possible. Switch family can truly be an ultimate console.

Do we think they will find some way to get these games on existing switches out there or just leave them exclusive to Dane Switch? I'm guessing if they are exclusive then would the Dane Switch get new boxes to show off that this is something different but also still a Switch. I'm sure Nintendo will get the messaging right ( hell the way to advertise the Wii u and Switch are like night and day).

I mean im done questioning the Dane Switch and if its coming im just curious if third parties would be happy to port their games over to a fraction of the Switch total audience. I guess what im asking is will Dane really be treated like the Gameboy Color?

 

[ILikeFeet]

I mean im done questioning the Dane Switch and if its coming im just curious if third parties would be happy to port their games over to a fraction of the Switch total audience. I guess what im asking is will Dane really be treated like the Gameboy Color?

It's the same as any new launch, so I don't see why this question keeps coming up. It's on Nintendo to make a good case for customers moving on. This time, they will have an easier time convincing since Nintendo's games will support both for a time amd people has shown to support higher end systems

 

[Illucio]

From past talks with Furukawa and other people at Nintendo, alongside the leaks of the 4k test kits out there what I gathered from them is:

1. Furukawa wants the console to be more technologically on par with current consoles to be more competitive.
2. The success of the Switch will definitely push Nintendo to wanting to keep their hybrid console, meaning there will be compromises. Like Cloud version of some games.
3. Nintendo seems interested in using parts like OLED screen if they received a good deal to implement into their console and come with positive remarks from current Switch OLED owners. A 720p OLED screen may be the part used for their next console unless they find a good deal for 1080 or 4k OLED screens for the screen size.
4. Nintendo acknowledging the need of a LAN port and a better wifi chip for the digital future of downloading/cloud playing/and streaming on their devices.
5. Many test kits for Nintendo console with 4k, so Nintendo is aiming for native 4k to be achievable, but like previous games experimenting in areas to lower the resolution to weird numbers so it doesn't compromise game performance.
6. Nintendo wants to keep the multiple ways you can control and use the Switch as that opens up accessibility to different audiences, so expect the return of the joycons or their improved version of them to return.
7. To succeed from the Switch requires a significant enough upgrade in not just system specs but the hardware usability and upgrades from the previous console. PS5's haptic feedback garnered a lot of positive feedback, while Nintendo first to implement the technology, rarely used it and at a much lesser degree. Creating a controller with equal haptic feedback and possibly adaptive trigger controls. And pushing forward with the technology in more of their games.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Nintendo around two years now is saying mid-cycle for Switch, I mean if they said something like entered "end of life-cycle" that would bring huge problem to them, and people would start expecting new Switch hardware in few months.
So some people are really getting too much in that mid-cycle statement.

Furukawa: Don’t be alarmed everyone, but we’re at the end of the Switch lifecycle. This is it. The end is approaching and we have no new system announced. Yep yeppers

 

[Guaraná]

Nintendo around two years now is saying mid-cycle for Switch, I mean if they said something like entered "end of life-cycle" that would bring huge problem to them, and people would start expecting new Switch hardware in few months.
So some people are really getting too much in that mid-cycle statement.

yep, imagine saying that Switch is approaching the end of its cycle and also expect people to go get the SWOLED.
for me, the end of the Switch cycle will begin the moment the new Switch is announced.

 

[Dcubed]

The fact that Nintendo have finally started mentioning the Switch successor (first time they have officially done so!) is indication enough that we are coming to the tail end of the Switch's lifecycle.

They're not going to publically state that the Switch is coming to end of its lifecycle, even after Switch 2 gets officially unveiled, because that would be business suicide ("The Saturn is Not Our Future" was a huge blunder for a good reason!). It will forever officially be "in the middle" of its life until the day it gets replaced by Switch 2, but nonetheless, we are coming towards the end now. It's been almost 5 years, it's time for the console to start winding down and for Nintendo to start shifting resources over to its successor in the background: though Nintendo won't be saying this publically (because they can't!), this is how console generational transitions always work.

 

[Kano]

(first time they have officially done so!)

Not the first time. The slide they used to talk about it is recycled from like two years ago, and the comments are just an answer to a question.

 

[OpulentEmpress]

Isn't this more a reflection of the improved software forecast? It could simply be that ongoing software sales are higher than Nintendo expected in their initial forecast - currency fluctuations might also played a part in a revised profit forecast.

I'd love an early 2022 surprise title out of nowhere (and sure, I don't think we can rule it out given Nintendo's history here), but there could be other explanations for this bump.

The hype train took off long ago.