lemonfresh
#Team2024
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No matter when its coming, I'm still super pumped for dane.
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Hardware Furukawa on next gen Switch: still thinking about the concept of the machine, too early to talk about it, current Switch still in mid life
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Mr Swine
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I do wonder what will happen if the chip shortage continues beyond 2024 (which has a small possibility to happening think) and of Switch sales don’t have a steep drop YoY.
Would Nintendo still release news hardware or try to weather it out as much as possible till it get sorted out?
Would Nintendo still release news hardware or try to weather it out as much as possible till it get sorted out?
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The chip shortage (still hate that word for it) didn't stop Sony or MS from releasing their new consoles and those are selling very well. Why would Nintendo have an issue selling a new console?
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I think this is more of the case that as long as switch sales are high, they‘re saying it is in midlife. If switch hardware sales slows down (something like under 15 million) and system sellers like Mariokart will reach its sale potential (I’m guessing around 40-45% of Switch Sales) the narrative will change.
Dane Switch is them preparing for when that is happening. I‘m sure they have some form of plan ready to have a successor or some form of upgrade to the switch for 2023 at the earliest.
Dane Switch is them preparing for when that is happening. I‘m sure they have some form of plan ready to have a successor or some form of upgrade to the switch for 2023 at the earliest.
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We'd sooner see no games the longer we wait
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Honestly, the Nintendo Switch is an anomaly sales-wise, I don't think the system has peaked yet, it's just that the console is supply constrained. Because of this, Nintendo is in a corner right now. Third-parties want new hardware, but the base Switch and Switch OLED are selling like crazy, even six years into it's lifecycle. Something is eventually going to give, and Nintendo will need to do something about it.
Saying third parties want more powerful hardware seems like an over-simplification. The primary thing third parties want is a big customer base willing to invest in their software. That's why third parties releases continue to increase in number, and represent a bigger proportion of software units sold each year, as Nintendo reported today.
There's a whole lot of third party publishers for who it's not really a choice either, the Switch represents their biggest market and one they can't afford to ignore.
There's a whole lot of third party publishers for who it's not really a choice either, the Switch represents their biggest market and one they can't afford to ignore.
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When it comes to trusting what Nintendo say in these briefings, here's a fun factoid:
In 2014, Iwata revealed to investors that Nintendo had created procedures which would allow them to port Wii U games to their next portable console, thus helping to alleviate software shortages.
In 2014, Iwata revealed to investors that Nintendo had created procedures which would allow them to port Wii U games to their next portable console, thus helping to alleviate software shortages.
It's nice that the base switch is still selling obviously, but this isn't a reason to wait for it to dwindle and fall into irrelevancy before launching a successor. This is probably a lesson they learned from wii to WiiU transition.
Launch a new system while the brand is still strong.
Launch a new system while the brand is still strong.
The brand is nowhere close to dwindling though. It's only just past its peak.
The Wii comparison for Switch hasn't made sense for a while now. Switch is about to take to overtake it and is still moving 20m+ units a year.
OP
OP
Kano
yoda gaming
The reality is that even with no new hardware, the Switch as is can easily, easily still maintain very strong performance for both first and third party for at least two-three more years. Easily.
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Yeah you would think. There is still so much money on the table with switch.
the user base is there however and many still choose to ignore them. I think what a lot of them want is to not separate resources for specific versions of the game. an easier time developing games is what all devs want. it's why Xbox is still getting games despite the user base not being receptive to such games
...and the ones who are ignoring it would be the first to ignore a more powerful one because it's still not a PS5.
The Xbox misses out on tons of games that release on Switch and PS as well.
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The third parties that ignore Switch will probably still ignore a powerful version and the ones that heavily support it are largely niche anyway. I don't know how important third parties are to whatever strategy Nintendo has for Dane.
yea, the lack of demographic still wouldn't be the reason.
Xbox misses out on games, but that's largely JP games. still gets quite a big number of them
kimbo99
Spirit Detective
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Hence GTA finally coming. And Take-Two definitely did market research on the Switch audience.
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I very much doubt a more powerful Switch would be ignored by third parties like most are saying. If it's easy enough to port PS4/XB1 games to it I'm sure you'll see the likes of Capcom and SE and Ubisoft bring some of their games from that gen, and if they do well enough maybe some new games too.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
A next gen switch with its own exclusives is still coming, they are talking about a new family of systems that’s not called switch that’s even further out
I feel like you're being purposely obtuse here, because you're described exactly how they treat the current Switch and the point is development has/is moving to PS5/XSX in which being PS4/XBO powered and getting ports of older PS5/XBO is not a time sensitive thing.
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A stronger Switch will not completely head for a parity in term of released against PS5/XS but it will certainly receive some AAA releases day and date from the like of Ubisoft, Capcom or SE I think, moneyhats asides. At least until the cross gen period ends, but I'm not sure when that'll happen tbh. Otherwise their loss, esp. for JP publishers. For Western ones, I can see at least Ubisoft jumping in with whatever they have at the moment, considering that they'vr been in very good term with Nintendo so far.
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I'm definitely not trying to be obtuse, but perhaps I'm misunderstanding the current conversation.
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That’s my take here. Switch Dane isn’t a next generation system. It’s a revision in Nintendo’s eyes which is kind of what’s been said for a while now.
Edit: Nintendo will release a “next generation” system in another 4-5 years. And whatever it is may be a hybrid at its core, but it’s going to deliver an additional unique type of interactivity; the usual gimmicky ‘something’.
I personally hope they at least keep the Switch naming alive for decades, but we’ll see how that goes.
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NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Stop obsessing over the fuckin' branding of the next Switch, ffs.
Every single thread on this matter devolves into the same rinse and repeat bullshit.
Devkits for a new Switch are in hands of developers. Whether it'll be marketed as a Switch 2, Switch 4k, Switch Pro is ultimately trivial. It's up to Nintendo to decide how and where to position it. If they want to position it as a successor then they will. If they want it as a GBC/New 3DS then they will do that.
It's new Switch hardware. It's a new Switch.
It's not a new concept like going from GCN to Wii or from Wii U to Switch. It's still a Switch.
Every single thread on this matter devolves into the same rinse and repeat bullshit.
Devkits for a new Switch are in hands of developers. Whether it'll be marketed as a Switch 2, Switch 4k, Switch Pro is ultimately trivial. It's up to Nintendo to decide how and where to position it. If they want to position it as a successor then they will. If they want it as a GBC/New 3DS then they will do that.
It's new Switch hardware. It's a new Switch.
It's not a new concept like going from GCN to Wii or from Wii U to Switch. It's still a Switch.
Supreme Overlord
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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I think there are a few things muddying the topic at hand, such as readings of the actual statements as well as a lack of clarity regarding what people are talking about when referring to new hardware.
I know there's a disagreement regarding the actual text itself. For instance, Kano, you read into and editorialize from this statement that the next-gen hardware is indicated to be "seemingly still early in development," but the statement itself doesn't provide any indication that this is the case.
Again, the product will be in concept discussion, with its final details and release timing undecided, until literally that moment at which these aspects are locked in and (largely) immutable. Concept discussion doesn't necessarily mean what you read it as.
That's an example of reading into things.
When you argue that you just made a very basic reading through literally just reading the words, you're not noticing the parts that you're reading into this, that you're subconsciously adding. That's not an attack on you; most anyone will fall into the same thing sometimes. The thing is, this isn't all merely reading the words and recounting what they say.
But I begin to wonder of some of what you're reading into this stems from some derision toward reports and sources that point to new hardware appearing in the near-ish future:
And I shy away from completely discounting reports that refer to 11 individual sources, because that's a big scandal of sourcing to lie about, especially in a publication aimed at investors.
I mean, this doesn't exactly sound neutral, and I think it might be what's coloring your readings here.
But I also think part of what's clouding conversation around the topic is a lack of clarity regarding what people are actually trying to talk about. We're throwing around terms like "successor" or "pro" or "next-gen," but different people have different ideas as to what each of these mean. It really seems some disagreements would be easier to sort out if we were more clear on these points:
I'm not sure if this rambling has managed to clear anything up, but I hope it does.
Regardless, we do have reports pointing to new hardware in the near-ish future, and I don't think these statements actually refute those.
I know there's a disagreement regarding the actual text itself. For instance, Kano, you read into and editorialize from this statement that the next-gen hardware is indicated to be "seemingly still early in development," but the statement itself doesn't provide any indication that this is the case.
Again, the product will be in concept discussion, with its final details and release timing undecided, until literally that moment at which these aspects are locked in and (largely) immutable. Concept discussion doesn't necessarily mean what you read it as.
That's an example of reading into things.
When you argue that you just made a very basic reading through literally just reading the words, you're not noticing the parts that you're reading into this, that you're subconsciously adding. That's not an attack on you; most anyone will fall into the same thing sometimes. The thing is, this isn't all merely reading the words and recounting what they say.
But I begin to wonder of some of what you're reading into this stems from some derision toward reports and sources that point to new hardware appearing in the near-ish future:
With your reference for "knowing" a new model will release in 2020 being naught but an analyst making a prediction, that leaves 2019 --where rumblings came from the "Mariko" Switch, which did have some beefed up components but used those to extend battery life-- and 2021 --where all signs point to mixed reports from developers (Dane) and production lines (OLED)--, with both of these years having things happening to point to those reports.
And I shy away from completely discounting reports that refer to 11 individual sources, because that's a big scandal of sourcing to lie about, especially in a publication aimed at investors.
I mean, this doesn't exactly sound neutral, and I think it might be what's coloring your readings here.
But I also think part of what's clouding conversation around the topic is a lack of clarity regarding what people are actually trying to talk about. We're throwing around terms like "successor" or "pro" or "next-gen," but different people have different ideas as to what each of these mean. It really seems some disagreements would be easier to sort out if we were more clear on these points:
Sometimes it appears disagreement isn't even about the existence of new hardware, but about what that hardware is positioned as. These marketing matters aren't especially pertinent, though (There are discussions where they might be, but the disagreements in question don't tend to relate to that).
I'm not sure if this rambling has managed to clear anything up, but I hope it does.
Regardless, we do have reports pointing to new hardware in the near-ish future, and I don't think these statements actually refute those.
lemonfresh
#Team2024
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I think the real argument is if its coming out like next year or a couple years from now. I think there is enough info out there to know that the Dane indeed exists. There is like pages of links in the hardware thread for anyone that wants to see all the sources and info
TonyBaduy
Moblin
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Third parties already have dev kits for their new hardware, so it's not only that they want the new hardware, Nintendo would screw them over if it doesn't launch by late next year, or early next year, because they'd have already finished games and ports they cannot sell and THAT would not go well with their profits.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
If that were the actual core discussion, sure; however, the subtle and passive attacks directed at Nikkei or Bloomberg reporting have become apparent in each and every single thread on this matter.
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There's this weird seemingly growing subset of fans that feels almost like Bloomberg and Nikkei are intentionally trying to harm Nintendo's business or something by putting out supposedly bogus rumors.
It's very odd to see, I have no idea where this trend came from.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
No clue but it is annoying.
Nikkei got the production cut info. They, too, reported in early 2021 that there would be new Switch hardware; yet, people act like Nikkei never gets anything right and that they keep harping on the new Switch hardware claim until something happens. It's insulting and stupid to suggest Nikkei or Bloomberg are reporting bad info for laughs or to suggest they are lying and keep spreading the same false rumor.
maidhhc
Abundance is a social relationship 🌱
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do you have any rough expectations on when we'll see the device? would love to know your opinion on when it could finally arrive
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
I do not. Lots of things still ahead for it. I just know the general window that third-party partners are planning to have their games ready, which is, of course, subject to change.
Supreme Overlord
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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That's the thing, too, is sometimes it's not even that people feel almost like that's the case: it's been outright stated in the past, that these individuals and publications are out to get Nintendo, like there's some vendetta or obvious malicious intent.
Even something like referencing 11 sources, as mentioned above, is shrugged aside as clearly made up. From a professional publication. Catering to investors.
I point to that example specifically because the accusation is incredible. That's what really gets to me.
Such a happening would legitimately be a major scandal.
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Hell yes, and also hell no. Lol.
It’s the fake news and anti-journalist sentiment latching onto the topic coupled with a lack of and/or unwillingness to understanding that plans and processes have fluid elements to them even when some things (11 sources having devkits for example) are hard facts. Couple this with some people investing themselves too much in the dream/promise of a Switch Pro making their lives substantially better only intensifies these issues.
I machine-translated the investor Q&A about the Nintendo hardware and posted it in the Hardware Speculation thread:
famiboards.com
And @Kano, I'm not sure that your thread title is completely accurate. This is the same "Future Outlook" slide from September 2020's investor briefing, and it seems to me that they were referring to the "next gaming system" and not the "next gen Switch".
Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
I don't really get this idea of "big enough jump to be a successor" when this is Nintendo we're talking about. Wii was the Gamecube's successor but was probably a smaller jump than n3DS over the 3DS. Big enough jump can mean more than a power upgrade if it’s feature set is so far removed from...
famiboards.com
And @Kano, I'm not sure that your thread title is completely accurate. This is the same "Future Outlook" slide from September 2020's investor briefing, and it seems to me that they were referring to the "next gaming system" and not the "next gen Switch".
ArchedThunder
Uncle Beerus
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People were arguing whether or not the Switch was a successor to the 3DS for a couple years. There were people sure that a “true“ successor to the 3DS was around the corner.
Branduil
Bob-omb
Earlier the comparison of the Game Boy Color was brought up. In my mind that's exactly the kind of scenario where we argue about this forever.
On the one hand, the GBC was, in the technical sense, a much smaller upgrade than Dane will be. However, in terms of apparent upgrade, grayscale to color is a huge upgrade for most people.
Nintendo considered the GBC and GB to be the same console, however the GBC had a massive amount of retail exclusives, especially considering its short lifespan. It easily has far more retail exclusives than any other "pro" type system.
In the end I think more people think of GBC and GB as the same generation for the simple reason that Nintendo does, but if they had decided the other way it would be a pretty easy case IMO. If the Dane Switch ends up like the GBC, i.e. a massive number of exclusives, I would consider it a successor regardless of what Nintendo says.
Glio
Octorok
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Monolith Soft hit their limit the first year so...
Yeah, that's what I wanted to say. Switch is still going very strong and will be good for some time, but that's not a reason for not releasing New hardware.
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There's certainly a vein of that, yes. Some folks see new Nintendo hardware as almost a threat to Switch. I think some got so super-invested in Nintendo's ability to sell hardware units that it clouds their judgment of the situation, like folks who want it so badly to outsell the PS2, for example.
This comes down to middleware, just like it did with Switch's unprecedented support from 3rd-parties being facilitated at least in part by playing nice with middleware. If developers transition to, for example, Unreal Engine 5 in 2022 and use the Lumen and Nanite features to build their software (which... if you read up on those features, especially Nanite, why wouldn't they?), well... Epic is unsure all UE5 features like Nanite will be functional at the Switch hardware level, so there's a significant chance that excludes the Switch from any game made on that engine with those tools. Do you think Nintendo wants a release of Dragon Quest XII on their hardware? That may demand new hardware to be even remotely possible.
This can change on a dime, through no fault of Nintendo's. And they've been humbled way too many times now to give into a hubristic notion that the good times will keep on rolling; they want to be ready in the event that things take a sudden turn at the absolute least.
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I don't know if the Bloomberg article about the 11 thirds having devkits was bad faith. But of course was a bad timing releasing it just some days before the Oled was out.
I'm not criticising the content but the timing regarding Bloomberg.
I'm not criticising the content but the timing regarding Bloomberg.
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You go to press when you have the story pinned down. Bloomberg has no reason to cater their news cycle to Nintendo's whims. And I don't see how it would effect OLED sales like you seem to be implying, unless a huge mass of potential buyers were still falsely holding out hope that it had new hardware guts. The story changed nothing about what the device was and why people would want to buy it.
I still think that was an optimization issue than a hardware one. They ran hella lean and changed to a physically based render pipeline. I think their next game will look a lot cleaner with higher resolutions
