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Hardware Furukawa on next gen Switch: still thinking about the concept of the machine, too early to talk about it, current Switch still in mid life

The phrasing of a Tweet is very different from sharing their business strategy with shareholders. If there were new hardware this year, it would be reflected in their business strategy, even if subtly. The fact that they don't even allude to "expanding the Nintendo Switch family of devices" or something to that effect is very telling

Yep. This isn't communication to consumers. This is laying out their strategy for the next year and the years before. They aren't trying to "keep surprises". They're trying to convince investors about their plans for the future.

You're reading way too much into that one slide. There's nothing even in that slide saying the OLED model is the main focus of 2022 like you're claiming. Literally all it says is "With the Nintendo Switch lineup and its new addition, Nintendo Switch- OLED model, we will aim for a sixth year of growth"

What? This very sentence indicates that their two main focus of 2022 are the lineup and the OLED. The slide is called "Nintendo Switch in 2022" and this is what they say will allow them to achieve the sixth year of growth. I'm confused by how this is "reading too much into it", it's literally just reading the words written on that slide lol.
 
Huh? Why on earth would they mention publicly that they plan to expand the Switch family in 2022 when they literally just released a new Switch model not a month ago? That makes no sense.
They would say that their strategy will incorporate hardware in some way if it did, because it gives shareholders an accurate impression of their strategy. I don't know how much you know about Japanese business, but honor and shame are huge parts of it. They would not lie by omission to their shareholders. That would be dishonorable.
 
At the moment it means that if anything releases in the near future, say 2023, it'll be integrated into the current Switch hardware/family and won't be a successor, like Lite and OLED. The actual successor is still in concept phase and doesn't seem like it's releasing anytime soon.

And it also strongly suggests that nothing is releasing next year as Nintendo focuses on the OLED.
What about an OLED Pro then? 😯
 
What? This very sentence indicates that their two main focus of 2022 are the lineup and the OLED. The slide is called "Nintendo Switch in 2022" and this is what they say will allow them to achieve the sixth year of growth. I'm confused by how this is "reading too much into it", it's literally just reading the words written on that slide lol.
You said the OLED model is their main driver for growth, when I read it as saying the games lineup is the main driver for growth. You can't have both be the main driver.

And that's not the part about reading too much into it. You reading that this suggests there cannot be other hardware released is how you're reading too much into it.

Here's a relatively silly example:

"This weekend I plan to increase my relaxation by focusing on couches and hot cocoa" Does this statement mean I'm not also planning to eat something delicious or have some nice hot tea? No, it does not exclude any other means for increasing my relaxation, it just touches on the ones I want to mention now.


They have very, very good reasons to specifically not mention adding new hardware next year at the moment. Nothing about them using the games lineup and the OLED model to drive growth in 2022 suggests additional hardware is not possible in that year.

They would say that their strategy will incorporate hardware in some way if it did, because it gives shareholders an accurate impression of their strategy. I don't know how much you know about Japanese business, but honor and shame are huge parts of it. They would not lie by omission to their shareholders. That would be dishonorable.

They lie by omission ALLLLL the damn time. What? Every time they keep a game announcement secret that's a lie of omission. They're telling investors they plan to drive growth by selling BOTW2 and Splatoon 3 and Kirby and whatever, so do you think that's all they have for the year? If they have anything else they're lying by omission.

Nintendo just lied themselves in the omission.
 
most Danefense is predicated on Nintendo being a sneaky bastard man company that is trying to rip off idiots who wouldn't buy the OLED if they knew about the real premium model, which makes it frustrating to discuss from a product perspective

They're telling investors they plan to drive growth by selling BOTW2 and Splatoon 3 and Kirby and whatever, so do you think that's all they have for the year?
No, they said they're focusing on software. Expanding their software, too. They make no allusion to expanding the hardware family
 
What about an OLED Pro then? 😯

Not impossible. My personal expectation is that a hardware well integrated in the current Nintendo Switch family of consoles will release in late 2023. What form will it take, it's up to everyone's guess.

You said the OLED model is their main driver for growth, when I read it as saying the games lineup is the main driver for growth. You can't have both be the main driver.

And that's not the part about reading too much into it. You reading that this suggests there cannot be other hardware released is how you're reading too much into it.

Here's a relatively silly example:

"This weekend I plan to increase my relaxation by focusing on couches and hot cocoa" Does this statement mean I'm not also planning to eat something delicious or have some nice hot tea? No, it does not exclude any other means for increasing my relaxation, it just touches on the ones I want to mention now.


They have very, very good reasons to specifically not mention adding new hardware next year at the moment. Nothing about them using the games lineup and the OLED model to drive growth in 2022 suggests additional hardware is not possible in that year.

Both are the main drivers. It doesn't matter lol. Software drives hardware and hardware drives software.

I think you are trying a bit too hard on words and semantics tbh. The strategy has been laid out and I just did a very basic reading of its implications and what Nintendo is intending to do in 2022. It is not strictly impossible that they release a console, but giving their intents for next year, I will safely say it is pretty unlikely.
 
most Danefense is predicated on Nintendo being a sneaky bastard man company that is trying to rip off idiots who wouldn't buy the OLED if they knew about the real premium model, which makes it frustrating to discuss from a product perspective


No, they said they're focusing on software. Expanding their software, too. They make no allusion to expanding the hardware family

They also didn't mention any plans to release movies in that slide. But we know they do plan to release one next year.

They might also release another mobile app like Pikmin Bloom. Or maybe a new Game and Watch or other type of merchandise. Them not mentioning it there doesn't mean they're lying. It just means that it won't be the major focus of growth for the whole year.

Not impossible. My personal expectation is that a hardware well integrated in the current Nintendo Switch family of consoles will release in late 2023. What form will it take, it's up to everyone's guess.



Both are the main drivers. It doesn't matter lol. Software drives hardware and hardware drives software.

I think you are trying a bit too hard on words and semantics tbh. The strategy has been laid out and I just did a very basic reading of its implications and what Nintendo is intending to do in 2022. It is not strictly impossible that they release a console, but giving their intents for next year, I will safely say it is pretty unlikely.
Ah okay, I thought you were arguing that this means they're explicitly denying it will happen.

Yeah, it seems the plan for 2022 is clearly predicated on software and the OLED model driving most of their revenue growth. It's possible they release a new model towards the end of FY2022, to contribute a bit towards that growth too. But yeah obviously the slide means the main focus of the year will be software + OLED model.
 
The simple and easy thing would be to make another hybrid upgrade specs and features then call it a day. Knowing Nintendo that being too easy just wouldn’t be their style. I’m expecting something with VR involved out of the box for their next console. I think moving away from switch would be bat-shit crazy but I feel confident Nintendo will do just that.
 
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It just means that it won't be the major focus of growth for the whole year.
Even in a 2022 Dane timeline, there is something to consider about what it means from a product perspective. We very well could see a "soft launch" of the Pro, with it being such a scarce and enthusiast targeted product to start that it isn't a major part of their strategy. Far more relevant to growth is the potential Dane launch game, BOTW2
 
Switch has been in its mid life since like 3 years ago?

Dane Switch is going to come when it is ready, and no investor is going to get mad if Nintendo releases a new model in 2022 or 2023, or claim Nintendo lied to them today for not detailing anything about future hardware.
 
Dane Switch is going to come when it is ready, and no investor is going to get mad if Nintendo releases a new model in 2022 or 2023, or claim Nintendo lied to them today for not detailing anything about future hardware.
a shareholder will stand up at the next q&a and say shuntaro furukawa is a bastard man
 
Discussions of "concept, timing, everything, etc." is what every platform holder does up until they set the reveal date. "Concept" doesn't really mean they are going to design its gimmick or features but rather the marketing of what it is and the selling point to it.

I really hope people don't believe that almost 5 years later they are still in the early stages of the next platform
 
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Even in a 2022 Dane timeline, there is something to consider about what it means from a product perspective. We very well could see a "soft launch" of the Pro, with it being such a scarce and enthusiast targeted product to start that it isn't a major part of their strategy. Far more relevant to growth is the potential Dane launch game, BOTW2
Yep, not gonna disagree with any of that.

Switch has been in its mid life since like 3 years ago?

Dane Switch is going to come when it is ready, and no investor is going to get mad if Nintendo releases a new model in 2022 or 2023, or claim Nintendo lied to them today for not detailing anything about future hardware.
Middle in this sense doesn't mean "exactly at the halfway point". It really just means they're out of the main starting growth phase and haven't really entered the traditional decline phase yet.
 
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I think we can't read too much into comments like these because, as in all business, things change. Nintendo can always say, if a new console does arrive in 2023, 'Well we amended our plans based on market conditions.' Similarly if a new console comes much later.

I still think that the existence of games like Splatoon 3 indicate that - regardless of what form a new Nintendo console takes - Switch will still be supported for a while, especially if it gets cross gen support with whatever comes next. I've said before I can't see Nintendo waiting beyond 2024 to release significant new hardware (be it a whole new Switch or a significantly upgraded one) and I stand by it.
 
Thank you for pulling the information OP! My thoughts:

  • Nintendo saying that the Switch is still in the mid-life cycle isn't that surprising considering they have been saying the same thing for a while. It is nice to know that they system is going to keep being supported for years to come.
  • Nintendo said that the next gen console is still in the "concept phase" is interesting, considering we are coming up on five full years of the Switch being in the market. I don't think that means we are not getting any new hardware in the near/mid future because Nintendo's business model includes a continuous release of hardware to boost sales. Even if there isn't a "new" system there will be more hardware in the mean time like a Pro model or another lite.
  • Furakawa sees the importance of long term customer retention with the account system (welcome to 2021 I know lol) and that is music to my ears. While it doesn't 100% confirm without a doubt that backwards compatibility will be a thing with the next system, that makes me feel even better about its chances. More so, it sounds like the NSO apps have a good chance to carry over which is awesome. I really don't feel like starting over with the same 20 NES games for the fifth time.
 
It’s pretty bold that Nintendo themselves are setting a goal for YoY growth for the Switch in 2022, as basically no one has seen that as the current trend, especially with supply chain constraints. They must be confident in next year’s pipeline.

It sounds like there are alot of unannounced Video Games for the Nintendo Switch which will be released during 2022 :)
 
Do we think that Furukawa would be saying such things right up until the minute the official reveal of the next console happens?
 
Thank you for pulling the information OP! My thoughts:

  • Nintendo saying that the Switch is still in the mid-life cycle isn't that surprising considering they have been saying the same thing for a while. It is nice to know that they system is going to keep being supported for years to come.
  • Nintendo said that the next gen console is still in the "concept phase" is interesting, considering we are coming up on five full years of the Switch being in the market. I don't think that means we are not getting any new hardware in the near/mid future because Nintendo's business model includes a continuous release of hardware to boost sales. Even if there isn't a "new" system there will be more hardware in the mean time like a Pro model or another lite.
  • Furakawa sees the importance of long term customer retention with the account system (welcome to 2021 I know lol) and that is music to my ears. While it doesn't 100% confirm without a doubt that backwards compatibility will be a thing with the next system, that makes me feel even better about its chances. More so, it sounds like the NSO apps have a good chance to carry over which is awesome. I really don't feel like starting over with the same 20 NES games for the fifth time.

The use of the word "concept" is literally to throw people off, they prepare for questions like that and choose words that carefully give the impression things not so far away aren't even close to being a priority.
 
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Do we think that Furukawa would be saying such things right up until the minute the official reveal of the next console happens?
Maybe not this exact thing. They'd probably go straight to "we cannot comment" or "we have no announcements at this time" rather than specifically talk about how they're currently discussing it.
 
Thank you for pulling the information OP! My thoughts:

  • Nintendo saying that the Switch is still in the mid-life cycle isn't that surprising considering they have been saying the same thing for a while. It is nice to know that they system is going to keep being supported for years to come.
  • Nintendo said that the next gen console is still in the "concept phase" is interesting, considering we are coming up on five full years of the Switch being in the market. I don't think that means we are not getting any new hardware in the near/mid future because Nintendo's business model includes a continuous release of hardware to boost sales. Even if there isn't a "new" system there will be more hardware in the mean time like a Pro model or another lite.
  • Furakawa sees the importance of long term customer retention with the account system (welcome to 2021 I know lol) and that is music to my ears. While it doesn't 100% confirm without a doubt that backwards compatibility will be a thing with the next system, that makes me feel even better about its chances. More so, it sounds like the NSO apps have a good chance to carry over which is awesome. I really don't feel like starting over with the same 20 NES games for the fifth time.

A great Summary :)
 
That's exactly what I'm saying.

Up until days before it's announced I'd expect they would say things like "no plans" rather than things like "we're discussing concepts" like Furukawa has said here. That's why it makes me think it's still rather far off.

So is there reason for investors to even listen to Nintendo if they are lying all the time? Dosent sounds like a good business practice. But that's just me.
They're not lying though. It's all carefully worded so as not to be lies but at the same time not give away all of their plans.
 
I feel like we go through this every time there's new hardware on the horizon. Or even if a substantial amount of time has passed.

So is there reason for investors to even listen to Nintendo if they are just lying all the time? Dosent sounds like a good business practice. But that's just me.
It's not exactly lying. And even if it was, investors would be more pissed if Nintendo launched a product and then told the public "don't buy this, there's something better coming next year"
 
That's exactly what I'm saying.

Up until days before it releases I'd expect they would say things like "no plans" rather than things like "we're discussing concepts" like Furukawa has said here. That's why it makes me think it's still rather far off.
I don't see the logic of changing the speech from "We are thinking of it" to "We have no plans". I don't see any trend or change of specific words, they can say they are still thinking of the concept up to the minute the announce it, I don't expect Nintendo to change the way they comment on this in any meaningful way.

The crux of the thing here is that these statements are not indicative of the progress of the hardware. We already have developers with 4K-enabled kits, this hardware is not as "conceptual" as it may seem.
 
I don't see the logic of changing the speech from "We are thinking of it" to "We have no plans". I don't see any trend or change of specific words, they can say they are still thinking of the concept up to the minute the announce it, I don't expect Nintendo to change the way they comment on this in any meaningful way.

The crux of the thing here is that these statements are not indicative of the progress of the hardware. We already have developers with 4K-enabled kits, this hardware is not as "conceptual" as it may seem.
I'm going by past precedent. When new hardware is actually on the horizon they say things like "we have no plans to announce this" or "we cannot talk about it" rather than "we're currently undergoing internal discussions on the concept and timing". Of course it doesn't have to mean anything different but it is a markedly different way of talking about future hardware plans than we've seen from them when new hardware is actually coming soon.

And the fact that 4k devkits are out does not mean that this next gen console is launching soon. Because they're far more likely to launch a new 3DS/GBC style iterative upgrade Switch within the next 2 years than a traditional next-gen successor.
 
I think people are too hung up on the sucessor Vs revision debate (or if you prefer the gen debacle). Generations are not someting factual, it's something we (mostly gamers) inventend to define a time period on the gaming landscape when competing consoles would go head-to-head around same time and with devices sharing similar specs/power and pretty much the same strategy. However, times have changed. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft, now more than ever, offer more different things than just a few 1st party and 3rd party exclusives. On top of that, every new gamer now was born in a world where electronic devices exist and particularly mobile devices, which see regular "refreshes" in terms of hardware, but that are essentially the same family with shared applications and games.

Next Switch I believe will be neither a new itineration nor a successor in the real sense of the word, but it'll be a mix of past generation changes: it'll be a whole new hardware, leaps and bounds superior to current models (as if it was a traditional generational jump), but it will keep a shared library with current models (as if it was just a regular refresh model). And Nintendo needs to market it as both of these things. People nowadays are used to this sort of updates/refreshes while keeping the same ecosystem, which would be a hard pill to swallow in the 90s or early 200s.

Personally, I think Nintendo will release a Switch 2 in the near future (maybe 2022, probably 2023) - and yes, ideally name it Switch 2 - and keep releasing software that works in both OG Switch and Switch 2 (they do not want to let go of that sweet 100M+ userbase), with Lite and OLED type models of the Switch 2 will be released shortly after. 5/6 years from now we'll see a Switch 3, at which point userbase will have already shifted from OG Switch to Switch 2 in droves, and from that point onwards they'll let go of OG Switch (new games will be released for Switch 2 and Switch 3 only). And the cycle repeats ad infinitum with new devices.

They found a formula that works, and 2000s generations love gadgets and mobile technology. No need for more generational hard resets in gaming. Just one on-going Switch fami :) This would also mean that the "we're in the middle of the Switch life cycle" are not incorrect, if the OG Switch will go on sharing library with Switch 2 it is correct that we're currently somewhere in the middle of the Switch mid-life cycle. Also they're not lying when they're just discussing next gen devices as we're still talking about the Switch family of devices. Really, these terms can be interpreted in so many ways that it's really hard to take something concrete from the PR words they spew out.

Anyway, just my 2 cents on this matter. With the success we're seeing from the Switch, and the likelihood that people will still enjoy the hybrid concept, I don't see any reason not to capitalize on it. At least this is what I would do.
 
okay, this is definitely less of a fluff statement. the Danefense is gonna be weak for this one
Nah, it's just time for everyone's favorite discussion again, "what is a successor?"
Releasing another hardware would be a significant element of their plans that they arent even slightly hinting at or including.
They make no allusion to expanding the hardware family
I don't recall them making any hints to the Switch Lite or OLED model when talking about their plans for the next year in 2018 and 2020. Am I just forgetting?
 
I think people are too hung up on the sucessor Vs revision debate (or if you prefer the gen debacle). Generations are not someting factual, it's something we (mostly gamers) inventend to define a time period on the gaming landscape when competing consoles would go head-to-head around same time and with devices sharing similar specs/power and pretty much the same strategy. However, times have changed. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft, now more than ever, offer more different things than just a few 1st party and 3rd party exclusives. On top of that, every new gamer now was born in a world where electronic devices exist and particularly mobile devices, which see regular "refreshes" in terms of hardware, but that are essentially the same family with shared applications and games.

Next Switch I believe will be neither a new itineration nor a successor in the real sense of the word, but it'll be a mix of past generation changes: it'll be a whole new hardware, leaps and bounds superior to current models (as if it was a traditional generational jump), but it will keep a shared library with current models (as if it was just a regular refresh model). And Nintendo needs to market it as both of these things. People nowadays are used to this sort of updates/refreshes while keeping the same ecosystem, which would be a hard pill to swallow in the 90s or early 200s.

Personally, I think Nintendo will release a Switch 2 in the near future (maybe 2022, probably 2023) - and yes, ideally name it Switch 2 - and keep releasing software that works in both OG Switch and Switch 2 (they do not want to let go of that sweet 100M+ userbase), with Lite and OLED type models of the Switch 2 will be released shortly after. 5/6 years from now we'll see a Switch 3, at which point userbase will have already shifted from OG Switch to Switch 2 in droves, and from that point onwards they'll let go of OG Switch (new games will be released for Switch 2 and Switch 3 only). And the cycle repeats ad infinitum with new devices.

They found a formula that works, and 2000s generations love gadgets and mobile technology. No need for more generational hard resets in gaming. Just one on-going Switch fami :) This would also mean that the "we're in the middle of the Switch life cycle" are not incorrect, if the OG Switch will go on sharing library with Switch 2 it is correct that we're currently somewhere in the middle of the Switch mid-life cycle. Also they're not lying when they're just discussing next gen devices as we're still talking about the Switch family of devices. Really, these terms can be interpreted in so many ways that it's really hard to take something concrete from the PR words they spew out.

Anyway, just my 2 cents on this matter. With the success we're seeing from the Switch, and the likelihood that people will still enjoy the hybrid concept, I don't see any reason not to capitalize on it. At least this is what I would do.
I agree with most of this, though I just want to say what you're describing in the bolded would indeed be an iteration. GBC and New 3DS were both leaps and bounds superior to the current models in terms of hardware, just like Dane is likely to be.

And another point- people keep saying that Dane is going to be more powerful to the extent of a traditional generational jump, but based on what we know of Dane I'm not sure I'd agree. We're looking at something that will likely only be 2-3x better on the GPU side here. It'll have a much better CPU but so did the new 3DS.

I think people might be overselling what this new 4k Switch will be capable of technically.
 
Nah, it's just time for everyone's favorite discussion again, "what is a successor?"


I don't recall them making any hints to the Switch Lite or OLED model when talking about their plans for the next year in 2018 and 2020. Am I just forgetting?

They've rarely had such detailed strategy document in the past. Usually it only sticks to current data rather than establishing a strategy for the coming year.
 
They've rarely had such detailed strategy document in the past. Usually it only sticks to current data rather than establishing a strategy for the coming year.
I wouldn't call that a detailed strategy document myself.

Regardless, the OLED is a 2021 model that they're expecting to make waves in 2022. It could reasonably follow that they intend to release a new device in 2022 that they simply don't anticipate to be a driver for growth - at least in 2022 itself. There could be a variety of reasons for this, such as supply issues, pricing it high, or just releasing too late in the year to make a major difference in the total year sales.
 
It’s pretty bold that Nintendo themselves are setting a goal for YoY growth for the Switch in 2022, as basically no one has seen that as the current trend, especially with supply chain constraints. They must be confident in next year’s pipeline.

They also upped their profit forecast to $4.6B despite lowering Switch projection numbers, by 6%, to 24 million.

Must have something huge and unannounced.

I'm all eyes and ears.
 
Not exactly on the main topic, but the fact that they mention BOTW2 as set for release in 2022 is a good thing. I don't take it as 100% set in stone though. Just like I don't take it is as a 100% certainty that DaneSwitch won't be released in 2022 (FY or calendar) just because it's not mentioned or even hinted at.

The slide on p22 displaying the increased sales from titles by other software publishers ("in tandem with their presence") is interesting though.

I figure depending on how the next months go (OLED, Pokemon, GTA etc.), Nintendo may finally pull the trigger on finalizing a Dane release date. The OLED was leaked in March for June production & October release. (a tape out being involved makes it a bit different though I imagine). Going to be an interesting holiday season on many fronts.
 
I wouldn't call that a detailed strategy document myself.

Regardless, the OLED is a 2021 model that they're expecting to make waves in 2022. It could reasonably follow that they intend to release a new device in 2022 that they simply don't anticipate to be a driver for growth - at least in 2022 itself. There could be a variety of reasons for this, such as supply issues, pricing it high, or just releasing too late in the year to make a major difference in the total year sales.

I dont see how a new Switch hardware wouldn't be a major growth driver. Especially for such a hardware focused company as Nintendo. Even if it were to release in the last month of the year.
 
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if I remember right they had a patent for passive virtual network upscaling and another for external assisted hardware acceleration.

Switch successor could easily capitalize on those, like the idea thrown around of a “power dock” that would help improve the games when the switch was locked in
 
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Nintendo said the report contained several mistakes which was true. It had a lot more going on than just the tidbits on the 3ds redesign.
Look, I am not going to chase your goalposts. It has been well documented that companies have no obligation nor desire to stay true to their words if that means hurting their business. Nintendo is no different from that, and history has shown this.

And again, this doesn't mean Nintendo is launching its Switch successor in 3 months, just that statements from the company rarely represent its real state. We already know there are dev kits out in the hands of many developers, so this device is not as far in the future as the "concept" statement may imply.
 


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