I think the obvious locks are TotK and Starfield, I could see both spiderman 2 and ff16 getting in and after that it's truly chaos, armored core 6 has the from software factor and looks crazy so it's probably getting nominated. The other big ones seems to be diablo 4, resi4 and I guess Baldur gate 3 but I think that's an easy cut, same thing for street fighter 6 sadly.
I'm still pretty sure that ff16 will get a nomination even if it's getting the same hype it had pre release, it's still final fantasy. I don't remember my first list but i think we're getting this.
Totk
Starfield
Armored core 6
Ff16
Spider man 2
Diablo4/resi 4
Still think the race will be between zelda and Starfield, if Starfield delivers it will probably win otherwise we're getting a 2017 2. Armored core 6 is a dark horse pick though and it wouldn't surprise me if it becomes the game of the year, but they gave from software the goty last year too with elden ring so it's unlikely we'll get the 2peat