StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST5| Uncharted Territory: Drake's Deception

[Joe]

Yes. Just look at all these examples, which I will now cite...

Paper Mario: Color Splash.

 

[GamerJM]

Pikmin 4 can’t be the last big game before switch 2. That means you’re saying Nintendo is gonna go at least 8-9 months without a big game

It depends on how you define "big game". I think it means Mario platformer/Zelda/Metroid/Splatoon/Animal Crossing/Smash/Mario Kart, i.e. a game that's either in their top echelon of sales or critical acclaim. Pikmin doesn't count by that metric, neither would something like Donkey Kong or Kirby. Nintendo goes 8-9 months without a game of that stature all the time. I think the Switch already had its final non-cross-gen big game released with Zelda.

 

[Brofield]

Yes. Just look at all these examples, which I will now cite...

The Legend Of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Gamecube)

 

[theguy]

i friggin almost GAAAH

 

[xghost777]

how so??? does a system usually need a huge finale game?

Pikmin is big enough to work, but they usually don’t go silent for months and months between the last big game and new hardware. We have a couple candidates too for big games floating too namely 2D Mario, Donkey Kong, and Metroid Prime 4 that could be the last big game.

 

[xghost777]

Grubb’s statement is interesting, but I’m still firmly #TeamJune.

 

[Cyrus]

What's the info that makes people think it's coming Holiday 2024? I still think Spring 2024 is decently likely, especially if the rest of this year is as underwhelming as some speculate. All I remember is NateDrake saying he thinks Holiday 2024, but even that sounded more like a prediction than anything directly related to insider info he had iirc.

It’s informed speculation, hence why I said conjecture. With what little information we have about Drake, and Nintendo’s own comments (I’m actually not sure what Nintendo’s track record on denying new hardware, given that NX was announced 2 whole years before its launch), we can assume that the successor to the Switch is launching later in 2024. It could very well launch sooner, but again, with what little information we have, signs are pointing to late 2024, which, if Pikmin 4 was Nintendo’s last “big” release on Switch, would mean a software drought almost a year and a half long, which is unreasonable to expect.

 

[SirShorse]

It’s informed speculation, hence why I said conjecture. With what little information we have about Drake, and Nintendo’s own comments (I’m actually not sure what Nintendo’s track record on denying new hardware, given that NX was announced 2 whole years before its launch), we can assume that the successor to the Switch is launching later in 2024. It could very well launch sooner, but again, with what little information we have, signs are pointing to late 2024, which, if Pikmin 4 was Nintendo’s last “big” release on Switch, would mean a software drought almost a year and a half long, which is unreasonable to expect.

NX was announced that early because the Wii U was bombing hard and Nintendo needed to ensure people they weren't exiting the console business

 

[Dark Cloud]

Who do I believe? Team Right or Team Wrong?

 

[Legion of Primes]

Just remember that I was literally the first person to vote for July when Raccoon opened up the poll.

I just recently returned so I voted July

I was team Chaos reigns supreme

 

[Deleted member 1005]

Nintendo’s June direct is another development update for Metroid Prime 4, but this time it’s just Miyamoto fortnite dancing on Prime 4’s grave while announcing Pikmin 5, 6, and Hey Pikmin 2.

 

[GamerJM]

I’m actually not sure what Nintendo’s track record on denying new hardware

It's pretty bad outside the NX iirc. They would deny new versions of the 3DS not long before announcing a new model all the time. Also, there's not a lot of relevant data on this because the industry used to be way different with console announcement -> release times. The "Ultra 64" was announced years before release (and we had a lot more info on it than we had on the NX at the time), that just doesn't happen anymore because there's no reason to build hype for that long when news can spread online in seconds and everyone has a phone on them to read it.

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

#teamswitch2sping2024

 

[Apopheniac]

Who do I believe? Team Right or Team Wrong?

Always go with Team Wrong

 

[SirShorse]

Who do I believe? Team Right or Team Wrong?

Team Wroight

 

[Pokemaniac]

I was on Team July before Grubb, I will claim victory.



There's no way they have separate Switch and Switch 2 months so close.

The point of the idea is to split up what could be a single Direct into multiple for clarity. Not something I necessarily expect Nintendo to do, but it could happen.

 

[AtomicZach]

Who do I believe? Team Right or Team Wrong?

Don't know...he seems kind of fishy...

 

[Apopheniac]

So, this is just an idea I've been toying around with, but there is a scenario where it could be both June and July. Depending on how Nintendo wants to message things, what they could do is do sort of a Direct sandwich where they announce the rest of the Switch titles for the year, then announce Switch 2, then announce all the Switch 2 titles and enhancements in 3 separate events. It'd help to make it clear what is for each platform.

Like I said though, just an idea I've been toying with. Not really any evidence for a particular format at this time (aside from Partner Showcases being particularly unlikely unless accompanied by other things).

Why would they separate the games presentation from the hardware presentation for Switch 2? We're mostly expecting this thing to be another docking handheld, and it would behoove Nintendo to show off new features in the context of new games instead of rattling off a specs sheet.

 

[Luggage]

Unless I missed some big leak or insider info, there is no reason to believe Metroid Prime 4 will be coming to anything other than the Switch. People who think it's going to be crossgen or exclusive to the next platform are just setting themselves up for disappointment. I am not looking forward to every single Prime 4 review saying "shouldn't be on the Switch". I already got enough of that in TotK reviews.

We don't even have the faintest idea what the next platform will be, so people are getting their hopes up for something that doesn't even exist.

Prime 4 coming out on the Switch or the next console doesn’t matter to me personally. Prime 4 coming out at all is enough.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Why would they separate the games presentation from the hardware presentation for Switch 2? We're mostly expecting this thing to be another docking handheld, and it would behoove Nintendo to show off new features in the context of new games instead of rattling off a specs sheet.

It is more typical for recent Nintendo to initially show hardware in a dedicated trailer, and actually detail things like software later if necessary. There is some limited precedent for incorporating the announcement into a Direct, but it hasn't happened since New 3DS.

 

[Catalyst]

No one is saying Nintendo needs a big “swan song” game, but they do need games to tide people over before the new hardware. A year-long end of life drought is what the Wii and Wii U had, and we can all agree those weren’t ideal.

On the other hand the PS4 had significant titles release shortly before the PS5 and that is considered a good transition.

 

[GamerJM]

No one is saying Nintendo needs a big “swan song” game, but they do need games to tide people over before the new hardware. A year-long end of life drought is what the Wii and Wii U had, and we can all agree those weren’t ideal.

On the other hand the PS4 had significant titles release shortly before the PS5 and that is considered a good transition.

I'm of the mind that stuff like the Gamecube remasters that will fill out the coming release months can get Twitter drop announcements, though that's not a popular take since there's not a huge non-covid precedence for that iirc.

 

[RochHoch]

Pikmin 4 can’t be the last big game before switch 2. That means you’re saying Nintendo is gonna go at least 8-9 months without a big game

This is what I expect at this point

My guess is that they must be going all in on making sure Switch 2 has a healthy software lineup, so the Switch gets to coast on Zelda for at least a year because they aint got shit for it

 

[space_dragon]

The first half of this year was too stacked for there to be so little after Pikmin 4. I'm definitely with the 2D Mario believers and the Prime 4 dreamers for H2. Just totally unsure about announcement timings.

 

[9-Volt]

The final "big Nintendo game" for Switch will probably be out at least one year after the successor launch and will be a mainline Pokémon game just like DS and 3DS.

Pokémon Black & White 2 was launched 15 months after 3DS launch,
Pokémon Ultra Sun & Moon was launched 8 months after Switch launch.

 

[xghost777]

Slightly different subject, but 9 Volt just above me is also correct. People are sleeping on the how big the cross gen period will likely be for Switch 2.

 

[NateDrake]

Pokemon games will always be the "last" major release for the prior generation. They intentionally wait for a base to form before releasing a mainline Pokemon game on the platform.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Yeah Pokémon will be the last game. Even if it’s cross gen the holiday 2024 Pokémon game will be on switch at least.

2D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, new DK game, maybe 2D Zelda, Tomadachi Life 2 and some smaller games I can still see coming exclusively to Switch. We have the TTYD, Kid Icarus, F-Zero, etc rumors as remasters for Switch.

Everything else is focused on Switch 2. There’s still big games in there that can come to Switch I believe.

 

[Pokemaniac]

The final "big Nintendo game" for Switch will probably be out at least one year after the successor launch and will be a mainline Pokémon game just like DS and 3DS.

Pokémon Black & White 2 was launched 15 months after 3DS launch,
Pokémon Ultra Sun & Moon was launched 8 months after Switch launch.

The equivalent of those games for Switch is the Scarlet and Violet DLC. That said, I do think it's fairly likely the new hardware will be out before the Indigo Disk.

More broadly, though, Pokémon is generally in a pretty different posture than usual, and it's not unlikely that SV are the last full mainline games for Switch. Even with a big cross gen period, it's not clear that GF/TPC would want to commit to a full 3rd generation on Switch, especially in light of all the catch up that needs to happen as a result of SV, and we're in a situation where that could be what it takes to get another mainline Pokémon on Switch.

 

[Andre3333456]

I think that the release year of our last game published by Nintendo on the Switch 1 will be in 2027.

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

 

[Nathan Little]

It depends on how you define "big game". I think it means Mario platformer/Zelda/Metroid/Splatoon/Animal Crossing/Smash/Mario Kart, i.e. a game that's either in their top echelon of sales or critical acclaim. Pikmin doesn't count by that metric, neither would something like Donkey Kong or Kirby. Nintendo goes 8-9 months without a game of that stature all the time. I think the Switch already had its final non-cross-gen big game released with Zelda.

Donkey Kong is both critically acclaimed and a huge seller. With EPD presumably developing one and the attraction coming next year, no doubt they will try to promote it as a big tentpole release.

 

[Wockio]

Donkey Kong is a huge seller.

Is it though

 

[Amadeus]

Is it though

I mean DK is huge, he's a gorilla after all

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

it means this

 

[Stilt Village]

Is it though

Yes?

DKC - 9 million copies
DKC2 - 5 million copies
DK64 - 5 million copies
DKCR - 6 million copies

Only single digit millions isn't that impressive by Switch standards, but it's historically always been a best-seller for the system it's released on, in the top 10-20 titles. Except Jungle Beat, for obvious reasons.

 

[chocolate_supra]

Paper Mario: Color Splash.

I mean

technically the WiiU's swan song game was Breath of the Wild..

*runs away*

 

[Dark Cloud]

Yeah DK is big and guess what it hasn’t had a new game on the Switch like these other Nintendo series. You haven’t seen the numbers it will do on the Switch user base.

 

[zumaddy]

Welp there's been a ton of new pages since I last checked, is the July dream I believed in actually getting some smoke?

 

[Nathan Little]

Is it though

I'm pretty sure Nintendo asked this same question to DK while they willfully ignored him and swam in a pool of golden bananas like Scrooge McDuck that was all raked in by the gorilla himself.

 

[Trevelyan]

Pokemon games will always be the "last" major release for the prior generation. They intentionally wait for a base to form before releasing a mainline Pokemon game on the platform.

A Legends sequel for next holiday would be absolutely sublime, imho.

 

[GamerJM]

Yes?

DKC - 9 million copies
DKC2 - 5 million copies
DK64 - 5 million copies
DKCR - 6 million copies

Only single digit millions isn't that impressive by Switch standards, but it's historically always been a best-seller for the system it's released on, in the top 10-20 titles. Except Jungle Beat, for obvious reasons.

You conveniently left out Tropical Freeze.

 

[Nathan Little]

You conveniently left out Tropical Freeze.

Tropical Freeze is at 4.12 million on Switch. 2.02 million on Wii U.

Nintendo software and hardware sales data from 1983 to present

I'm going to keep this thread updated with new, more up to date info whenever is possible. UPDATED WITH DATA UNTIL DECEMBER 2023 独創 What does the following data represent? The data here presented is either financial data or shipment data provided by Nintendo itself directly from Nintendo's...

www.installbaseforum.com

 

[Stilt Village]

You conveniently left out Tropical Freeze.

I also left out 3 and a bunch of others. It's still a best-selling Wii U game, for what little that means. The Switch port is even beating out the likes of Fire Emblem and Xenoblade.

 

[Magic-Man]

DK isn't a big seller... yet. It definitely has the potential to be one though.

 

[Lord Azrael]

The equivalent of those games for Switch is the Scarlet and Violet DLC. That said, I do think it's fairly likely the new hardware will be out before the Indigo Disk.

More broadly, though, Pokémon is generally in a pretty different posture than usual, and it's not unlikely that SV are the last full mainline games for Switch. Even with a big cross gen period, it's not clear that GF/TPC would want to commit to a full 3rd generation on Switch, especially in light of all the catch up that needs to happen as a result of SV, and we're in a situation where that could be what it takes to get another mainline Pokémon on Switch.

No way. Aren't the DLC waves dated for fall and winter? Probably meaning Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. And Nintendo already said no new hardware this fiscal year. I agree that gen 10 would not be on the Switch considering it's coming 2025 at the earliest, but something like a Let's Go or Legends game could easily launch on Switch after the succ is already out.

 

[Deleted member 386]

Honestly, I'd probably drop any mention of a Direct happening or not happening in an episode.

Even when I write things out... people still misreport what I'm saying.

Genuine question: have you ever thought about not being coy and just sharing info that you know? If you don’t want stuff to get misreported, why not just come out, say what you know or don’t know and be done with it? Why all these clues and hints?

 

[ZaWams]

Genuine question: have you ever thought about not being coy and just sharing info that you know? If you don’t want stuff to get misreported, why not just come out, say what you know or don’t know and be done with it? Why all these clues and hints?

As he stated, even if he writes it out or says it clear it will be misrepresented. It happens 100% of the time

 

[Raccoon]

THE POLL CLOSES IN LESS THAN A MINUTE

 

[MuddySeal]

Well it’s over