StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Hermii]

Hm.. I wonder why. Avoid leaks? Total hardware change, i.e. changed from NVIDIA to AMD? Another reason? Hmmm...

Imo, If there was a total hardware change, it's more likely to be industrial design/ feature related rather than soc.

 

[boodream]

Because they will release the Switch U in 1 year. It makes less sense to release new software when the new console is near. I even think they will release MP4 as a launch title for the Switch U.

It is precisely for all these reasons that 2D Mario or 2D DK is the most logical choice for the end of 2023. This is exactly the kind of game that does not need the new resources and will not be used to highlight them, unlike 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, the next Mario kart, Animal Crossing or Smash Bros among others.

This is the ideal compromise to continue to feed the release calendar with a title that will excite people thanks to the movie without depriving the next hardware of titles that will motivate the public to buy it.

I really don’t understand that so many people continue to trust a vague tweet that explains that Nintendo will stop releasing games and become an NBA franchise rather than Nintendo’s own financial report that explains counting on the future release of games on the current switch to reach its target of 15 million units sold.

On the subject of digital foundry, I’m a little worried that they have tackled completely secondary topics such as the release date of the console or the power of it instead of insisting heavily on the most important point: Nintendo should really use anti-aliasing.

 

[Armoured_Bear]

Nintendo doesn’t seem keen on delivering a cross gen though.

What do you base that on?

 

[invwar]

They didn't have to. The console was mentioned by Nintendo nearly 2 years before release, and there was already some accurate leaks about 9 months before release if I recall.

Don't we have a consent that the Eurogamer Leaker was an employee of Ubisoft? Only other alternative I could imagine would be Sumo Digital, who really teased the Switch release of Snake Pass massively.
If it had been a US/Canada based developer, it would be very likely Kotaku or IGN.

 

[Paul_Subsonic]

Nintendo should really use anti-aliasing.

Depends which one. I really hope Nintendo continues to not use TAA.

 

[invwar]

It is precisely for all these reasons that 2D Mario or 2D DK is the most logical choice for the end of 2023. This is exactly the kind of game that does not need the new resources and will not be used to highlight them, unlike 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, the next Mario kart, Animal Crossing or Smash Bros among others.

This is the ideal compromise to continue to feed the release calendar with a title that will excite people thanks to the movie without depriving the next hardware of titles that will motivate the public to buy it.

I really don’t understand that so many people continue to trust a vague tweet that explains that Nintendo will stop releasing games and become an NBA franchise rather than Nintendo’s own financial report that explains counting on the future release of games on the current switch to reach its target of 15 million units sold.

On the subject of digital foundry, I’m a little worried that they have tackled completely secondary topics such as the release date of the console or the power of it instead of insisting heavily on the most important point: Nintendo should really use anti-aliasing.

Nintendo will need a 2D Mario for the winter, a DK is welcome from my side too, but New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (15m) and Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (4m) shows that its Mario who is selling. And it is much easier to place this year after the movie success.

 

[boodream]

Depends which one. I really hope Nintendo continues to not use TAA.

It was a joke about DF (which I think is doing an awesome work) being overconcerned about that.

Nintendo will need a 2D Mario for the winter, a DK is welcome from my side too, but New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (15m) and Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (4m) shows that its Mario who is selling. And it is much easier to place this year after the movie success.

I think we’ll have both. Mario for Christmas and donkey Kong at the same time as the theme park expansion opens. While waiting for the next switch, we will certainly also have remakes and remasters. We already know that Bandai Namco is working on a title of this kind.

 

[ShadowFox08]

What? No that is not at all comparable to that.



Why would you waste that on the Nintendo switch when you have a New Console on the Horizon? This is why I said many pages ago that this is a balancing act and not easy for Nintendo. You can’t just throw everything at the switch and then have the new system behind dry Especially for the first two years which is super crucial for it.

Nintendo isn’t developing for a console that is a switch, it’s for something that is a lot higher than the switch. Just like how dev times increased from Wii to Wii U, they’ll increase again from Switch to Switch 2

Maximize Switch sales. Also, multiplatform.

Just to make sure I understand correctly, if Nintendo for whatever reason only had 1 8GB Module and decided post-tape-out to change it to either 2 6GB Modules or 2 8GB Modules, they would likely have to make a new SoC?

Yes.

I do really have a feeling that once MK8DX's DLC is over, Nintendo is ready to reveal their next Mario Kart title when the Switch 2 is revealed.

I think it's gonna be a least a year before a new Mario kart gets released.

Nintendo doesn’t seem keen on delivering a cross gen though. Especially one like the other platforms that do 2-3 years of cross gen before straight dropping the older platform.

What makes you say that? To be fair, this situation is new for Nintendo. They've never had a console last this long while selling so much a. I'll admit we don't know for sure what they will do, but they're not about to throw away a +120 million install base. This is what a lot of us are predicting. That they will have a cross gen period. I think also part of the reason why many came up with this, is the early rumors of Drake having cross gen support and being an iterive. successor.

The underperformance of the ROG Ally so far is making me give a second thought to this wild hypothetical I saw elsewhere: what if the Ally's the salvage bins of the Phoenix chips? I'm not necessarily believing it yet, but I dunno, I expected better.

Aside from that, I think that my takeaway is that it's actually pretty impressive that Zen is able to be pulled down into laptop power ranges and still perform so well as it is, but at the end of the day, that's not the primary segment they're for. IMO, as long as Intel's Core series continues the back and forth with Zen and keeps the pressure on AMD into needing to expand the core to keep up performance in the server segment, I'm not expecting a whole lot of improvement in specifically the 10 watt SoC space from Zen based chips. Not that AMD should be all that bothered by that; that's below typical laptop range. And handheld PC is still too small a market on its own. I don't yet see a need for AMD to come up with a separate CPU line just for low power.
And I'm restating that I think that progression for x86-based PCs in specifically 10 watt or under SoC range will have to rely on microarchitecture series that specifically target lower power in the first place. whispers Aaaaaattttoooommmm

Rich addresses the performance issues at 15w. There's a work around.

DF Weekly: Hands-on with the Asus ROG Ally - is it really a Steam Deck killer?

Digital Foundry's first impressions of the powerful new Asus handheld.

www.eurogamer.net

It is precisely for all these reasons that 2D Mario or 2D DK is the most logical choice for the end of 2023. This is exactly the kind of game that does not need the new resources and will not be used to highlight them, unlike 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, the next Mario kart, Animal Crossing or Smash Bros among others.

This is the ideal compromise to continue to feed the release calendar with a title that will excite people thanks to the movie without depriving the next hardware of titles that will motivate the public to buy it.

I really don’t understand that so many people continue to trust a vague tweet that explains that Nintendo will stop releasing games and become an NBA franchise rather than Nintendo’s own financial report that explains counting on the future release of games on the current switch to reach its target of 15 million units sold.

On the subject of digital foundry, I’m a little worried that they have tackled completely secondary topics such as the release date of the console or the power of it instead of insisting heavily on the most important point: Nintendo should really use anti-aliasing.

I'm totally fine if they don't address AA. I have classic mcable for that :⁠-⁠)

Jk, but mcable does help a bit.

 

[lattjeful]

On the subject of digital foundry, I’m a little worried that they have tackled completely secondary topics such as the release date of the console or the power of it instead of insisting heavily on the most important point: Nintendo should really use anti-aliasing.

If games built for Drake have AA, that's how I'll really know we're in Nintendo's next generation. Only Drake gives EPD the power to... checks notes smooth out edges. No TAA unless you're using DLSS please

Actually though, won't Nintendo have to start implementing anti-aliasing in their games if they plan to leverage the tensor cores for DLSS? Gonna be weird seeing Nintendo games with clean edges if that's the case.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

What do you base that on?

What makes you say that? To be fair, this situation is new for Nintendo. They've never had a console last this long while selling so much a. I'll admit we don't know for sure what they will do, but they're not about to throw away a +120 million install base. This is what a lot of us are predicting. That they will have a cross gen period. I think also part of the reason why many came up with this, is the early rumors of Drake having cross gen support and being an iterive. successor

Q5 You previously acknowledged the challenge in the dedicated video game platform business when the hardware generation changes. The previous software is no longer playable on the new hardware, necessitating a start from scratch. However, by utilizing Nintendo Account or maintaining backward compatibility on new hardware, it now seems possible for content to endure across hardware generations, similar to how visual content is treated. I think there are both advantages and disadvantages to having newly launched hardware maintain backward compatibility with previous hardware, but what kind of internal discussions have you had about this subject?


A5 Shigeru Miyamoto (Representative Director, Fellow):


In the past, we built a service called Virtual Console as a way for players to enjoy classic games on more modern hardware. In terms of compatibility, visual content has an advantage because it can be enjoyed continuously as long as you have a playback environment. However, legal rights for visual content can become quite complicated, so I have mentioned before that Nintendo is proceeding with visual content with a firm grip on the rights. Previously, software development for dedicated video game systems was conducted in development environments dedicated to each hardware platform. This meant that those environments could not be brought forward when the hardware changed, and it would become impossible to play software released for previous hardware without making changes. However, the software development environments have recently been gradually integrated. So, generally speaking, it has become easier to implement an environment where software released for past hardware can be played on new hardware.


Having said so, Nintendo's strength is in our creation of new entertainment, so when we release new hardware going forward, we plan to continue to offer new and unique gameplay that cannot be realized on existing hardware.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2022/221109_2e.pdf

The idea of an iterative successor died the moment Nintendo decided to do anything but iterate.

If there’s any semblance of a CG, it’ll be short lived and Nintendo will drop the switch like cold Turkey and put all their efforts into the Switch next to not have a Wii U or a 3DS scenario.

3DS actually released with a notable amount of 3rd party games at the time.

It flopped.

Why? Because people were buying it for first party games, and saw thirds as an extra.

And where were the first party games of note? Nowhere to be seen. Flopped, bombed, failed, dead on arrival, fish out of water, etc etc etc. price cut few months later and an attempt to salvage it.


Now, you can argue that this can be interpreted as “we’ll continue making new games like we’ve always done when new hard work comes out“, but the thing is, this is what Nintendo has always done. From Wii to Wii U, there was no real cross gen. From DS to 3DS there was no real cross gen. From Wii U to switch the only cross gen title was breath of the wild. From game cube to Wii the only cross gen that I’m aware of was twilight princess. From Nintendo 64 to game cube I don’t think I need to elaborate on, so I won’t.

I think the only consoles that they did a proper cross gen similar to the other platforms type of cross gen was from Game Boy advance to Nintendo DS and from Nintendo 3DS to Nintendo switch in which they supported the old platform for years after the successor already came out. But I could be wrong on these and there was another platform I’m missing.


I’m not including Pokémon in this, as that’s developed by a third party company, and has always done its own thing. I’m including Nintendo proper in-house games that they develop and publish for the Nintendo systems.

GF can and has released games on other platforms in the past.




Funnily enough, the systems that receive a proper cross GEN similar to other platforms are also the systems that sold incredibly well.


But in any case, to me they don’t seem keen on doing what we call a cross gen period like the others, and seem more keen on moving on and not looking back.

Maximize Switch sales. Also, multiplatform.

Why would it be multiplat? The idea is that it releases only in the switch to help it hit that 15M number, not take it away.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Depends which one. I really hope Nintendo continues to not use TAA.

Machine learned scalar upsampling

Or dlss1

 

[Bosintang]

Don't we have a consent that the Eurogamer Leaker was an employee of Ubisoft?

Maybe, that I don't know. But the Eurogamer leak was like, a year before release no?
This reinforces the idea that if the console was to release imminently (<6 months), it would have already leaked.

Also, Snake Pass was such an amazing game, and quite the technical showcase for an early game. It really didn't receive the success it deserved.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Digitimes is reporting that mediatek is working on an SoC with Nvidia gpu for mobile and laptops. Digitimes can be hit or miss

MediaTek to adopt Nvidia GPU in flagship mobile chip

MediaTek is expected to integrate an Nvidia GPU into its next-generation flagship mobile processor as early as 2024, according to industry sources.

www.digitimes.com

 

[LitKai]

Do you think the first Mario game for the Switch U will be Super Mario Galaxy 3, Super Mario Odyssey 2 or a new 3D Mario?

 

[Hermii]

Digitimes is reporting that mediatek is working on an SoC with Nvidia gpu for mobile and laptops. Digitimes can be hit or miss

MediaTek to adopt Nvidia GPU in flagship mobile chip

MediaTek is expected to integrate an Nvidia GPU into its next-generation flagship mobile processor as early as 2024, according to industry sources.

www.digitimes.com

Repurposing of T239 after Nintendo went to AMD?

/s

 

[ertaboy356b]

Digitimes is reporting that mediatek is working on an SoC with Nvidia gpu for mobile and laptops. Digitimes can be hit or miss

MediaTek to adopt Nvidia GPU in flagship mobile chip

MediaTek is expected to integrate an Nvidia GPU into its next-generation flagship mobile processor as early as 2024, according to industry sources.

www.digitimes.com

Nintendo going back to IBM confirmed.

 

[BDGAME]

Digitimes is reporting that mediatek is working on an SoC with Nvidia gpu for mobile and laptops. Digitimes can be hit or miss

MediaTek to adopt Nvidia GPU in flagship mobile chip

MediaTek is expected to integrate an Nvidia GPU into its next-generation flagship mobile processor as early as 2024, according to industry sources.

www.digitimes.com

Nintendo will be back to Digital Media Professionals Inc. (DMP). Is the current Pica GPU any good?

 

[ziggyrivers]

I don’t get how we went from:
• No announced software for 2H = REDACTED release

To:

• No announced software for 2H means Nintendo won’t release new software and ride it out with DLC

—————

It flopped.

The 3DS didn’t flop. It sold well. Not as best as it could have, which is why Nintendo decreased its price. Nintendo overestimated the 3D fad.

But the Eurogamer leak was like, a year before release no?

If you’re referring to the Switch leak, it was a couple of months prior to its unveil. And that’s if you’re referring to the info dump of what the Switch is.

Switch U

It’d be funny if the successor ends up being called the Ultra, which we could still call it the U, lol

will be Super Mario Galaxy 3, Super Mario Odyssey 2 or a new 3D Mario?

Hmm… Nintendo has incentive to release a 3D Mario game under one of those first two brands. I’d wager more over Odyssey 2. Buuut, after Bowser’s Fury feeling like a tech demo of what an open world Super Mario could be, I think they’d rather do something original. And since the Zelda and Mario dev teams are always competing, I’m even more inclined to believe they’ll do something original.

 

[LitKai]

I don’t get how we went from:
• No announced software for 2H = REDACTED release

To:

• No announced software for 2H means Nintendo won’t release new software and ride it out with DLC

—————


The 3DS didn’t flop. It sold well. Not as best as it could have, which is why Nintendo decreased its price. Nintendo overestimated the 3D fad.


If you’re referring to the Switch leak, it was a couple of months prior to its unveil. And that’s if you’re referring to the info dump of what the Switch is.




It’d be funny if the successor ends up being called the Ultra, which we could still call it the U, lol


Hmm… Nintendo has incentive to release a 3D Mario game under one of those first two brands. I’d wager more over Odyssey 2. Buuut, after Bowser’s Fury feeling like a tech demo of what an open world Super Mario could be, I think they’d rather do something original. And since the Zelda and Mario dev teams are always competing, I’m even more inclined to believe they’ll do something original.

An open world Super Mario Galaxy, where you have your own spaceship?

 

[Armoured_Bear]

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2022/221109_2e.pdf

Having said so, Nintendo's strength is in our creation of new entertainment, so when we release new hardware going forward, we plan to continue to offer new and unique gameplay that cannot be realized on existing hardware.


Me, to Shigsy :

 

[D36]

Having said so, Nintendo's strength is in our creation of new entertainment, so when we release new hardware going forward, we plan to continue to offer new and unique gameplay that cannot be realized on existing hardware.


Me, to Shigsy :

This doesn't phase me, as making new games for new hardware and supporting old hardware aren't mutually exclusive, regardless of whether or not Nintendo has done so before.

 

[LoneRanger]

I remember well Eurogamer leak was in july 2016, 9 months early than switch release and 3 months before they officially announced the system (october 2016).

Lite model was leaked by Nikkei at late january, thats ~8 months before its launch.

OLED was leaked by boomberg by late may, a little more than 4 months before its launch.

So I think next HW will leaked between at least july/august 2023 (assuming its releasing spring 2024) to january/february 2024 (guessing a september/october release).

BTW, I’m curious if they will try to beat hard in Mario/Pokémon/Animal Crossing brands as early exclusives.

Example; lets say the system releases in late 2024 with a new 3D Mario. The in spring 2025 a new Mario Kart, late 2025 both new Luigis Mansion and Pokémon Gen 10, and winter 2026 a new Animal Crossing.

+ more low key titles for enthusiast gamers (like a new game from Platinium Games or Team Ninja) + mega popular IPs from western publishers like COD/GTA.

 

[ziggyrivers]

An open world Super Mario Galaxy, where you have your own spaceship?

That would be veeery interesting! Maybe it’d work as a fast-travel method, like Link’s horseriding

Having said so, Nintendo's strength is in our creation of new entertainment, so when we release new hardware going forward, we plan to continue to offer new and unique gameplay that cannot be realized on existing hardware.


Me, to Shigsy :

Nintendo will market the Switch 2 as part of the Switch ecosystem. “A newer way to play”. After a year or two, they’ll start phasing the OG lineup out and just focus on the 2’s ecosystem.

A new console is technically a new way to play. Especially if said console is backwards compatible and, like the PS4 Pro, enhances current gen games’ performance

But again, that’s my confirmation bias talking.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Repurposing of T239 after Nintendo went to AMD?

/s

what if Nintendo ditched the T239 for this

finally, ARM X3 for a game device!

 

[Dakhil]

Repurposing of T239 after Nintendo went to AMD?

/s

Making the wishes of "tech enthusiasts" come true?

/jk

 

[mjayer]

What are the chances that we don't get any additional leaks before Nintendo's announcement of the new device? Some people seem to think it's 0, but I don't agree.

 

[LinkURL]

If Drake was really released last year, it would inevitably be on Samsung 8nm, but with this delay there are chances that we will see it in a better lithography, being able to use his real power.
It would be kind of disappointing to receive a SoC with 1500 CUDA cores but extremely downclocked due to the battery life.

 

[Dakhil]

What are the chances that we don't get any additional leaks before Nintendo's announcement of the new device? Some people seem to think it's 0, but I don't agree.

Depends on when Nintendo starts mass production of new hardware, I think.

If Drake was really released last year, it would inevitably be on Samsung 8nm, but with this delay there are chances that we will see it in a better lithography, being able to use his real power.
It would be kind of disappointing to receive a SoC with 1500 CUDA cores but extremely downclocked due to the battery life.

I don't know if Nintendo releasing new hardware equipped with Drake in 2022 is a realistic possibility, assuming Drake was indeed taped out during 1H 2022 (here and here), since to me, that doesn't sound like there's enough time to sample Drake, and then start mass manufacturing for new hardware, in time for a holiday 2022 launch.

 

[Hermii]

If Drake was really released last year, it would inevitably be on Samsung 8nm, but with this delay there are chances that we will see it in a better lithography, being able to use his real power.
It would be kind of disappointing to receive a SoC with 1500 CUDA cores but extremely downclocked due to the battery life.

Drake finished in 2022. Release date of the device will have zero impact on Drake.

Unless they somehow do a die shrink and the original Drake will never see the light of day. But I don't see that happening.

Besides that, nothing was ever inevitable about 8nm. Especially after we learned the cuda core count.

 

[ziggyrivers]

Assuming Nintendo shelved Drake, with their current console entering its 7th year in the market, what’s the soonest they can release the successor with a new SoC? How would this bode to 3rd parties with dev kits?

 

[Bonejack]

Assuming Nintendo shelved Drake, with their current console entering its 7th year in the market, what’s the soonest they can release the successor with a new SoC? How would this bode to 3rd parties with dev kits?

Not an expert, but a recent (2022) decision to change SoC would definitely rule out 2024, from my little experience.

 

[syrozz]

Assuming Nintendo shelved Drake, with their current console entering its 7th year in the market, what’s the soonest they can release the successor with a new SoC? How would this bode to 3rd parties with dev kits?

Not happening.
If they started from scratch it is 3 more years.
2022+3=2025.

Speaking of made-up scenarios about that devkit situation, is it likely that Nintendo has slightly modified Drake and is unofficially telling developers to work on the Jetson Orin NX if they want something close to their next hardware?
This thing seems very close to what a Drake devkit might look like. And that way they can keep it ambiguous for everyone (especially with less trustworthy developers).

 

[ziggyrivers]

Not an expert, but a recent (2022) decision to change SoC would definitely rule out 2024, from my little experience.

That’s what I’m thinking as well. Depending on how long it takes to either upgrade or make a new SoC, plus pre-produce the console, I guesstimate it could take 12-18 months

Not happening.
If they started from scratch it is 3 more years.
2022+3=2025.

My sentiments exactly. Which is why I think this talk of Nintendo ditching Drake is far fetched

 

[BloodMoon]

Maybe I’m misremembering, but isn’t Drake being taped out an assumption in itself?

Granted, the general consensus here is very confident, but we don’t know that for sure right?

 

[ziggyrivers]

Maybe I’m misremembering, but isn’t Drake being taped out an assumption in itself?

Granted, the general consensus here is very confident, but we don’t know that for sure right?

Drake being taped out is from the Nvidia leak, I believe. A credible one because it was a hack

 

[Dakhil]

Maybe I’m misremembering, but isn’t Drake being taped out an assumption in itself?

Granted, the general consensus here is very confident, but we don’t know that for sure right?

Drake being taped out is from the Nvidia leak, I believe. A credible one because it was a hack

Although Drake being taped out during 1H 2022 can't be 100% confirmed, a couple of LinkedIn profiles here and here mentioning T239 does make the possibility of Drake being taped out during 1H 2022 very likely.

As far as I know, the only tidbit from the illegal Nvidia leaks is that Nintendo and Nvidia could be using Samsung for fabricating Drake (here, here, here, and here).

 

[BloodMoon]

Drake being taped out is from the Nvidia leak, I believe. A credible one because it was a hack

I thought the only source was a single LinkedIn profile. [EDIT: Two profiles]

NVN2 (I think?) was what was in the leak.

Either way I think I just need to enjoy my ZOLED and stop worrying/wondering about what’s next!

 

[Deleted member 887]

Maybe I’m misremembering, but isn’t Drake being taped out an assumption in itself?

Granted, the general consensus here is very confident, but we don’t know that for sure right?

Drake being taped out is from the Nvidia leak, I believe. A credible one because it was a hack

It's an assumption, and it's not based on the Nvidia hack, but a combination of Linux drivers and Nvidia employee resumes.

Bug fixes in the Linux kernel starting in April imply that testing was being done on real hardware. Later, and Nvidia employee and a consultant both updated their LinkedIn resumes to refer to building tools for electrical verification of T239 over the summer. Electrical verification is something you do post tape-out. The consultant was only on a summer contract for the project, before taking a separate Nvidia contract - implying that they left because the work was done, not because of any unhappiness on Nvidia's part.

All of this implies sampling/tape-out in the (admittedly broad) April-August window of last year.

 

[Bosintang]

In my opinion, there's no rational argument for shelving Drake considering the state of the art unless Nvidia did something crazy like breaking the laws of thermodynamics. If we don't hear anything until summer 2024 (it won't happen), we can probably start considering it as a possibility.

 

[TSR3]

Maybe I’m misremembering, but isn’t Drake being taped out an assumption in itself?

Granted, the general consensus here is very confident, but we don’t know that for sure right?

Taping out is confirmed, but some people are using the words 'done' or 'finished' that are wrong in this context. There's sampling after taping out, and potentially more engineering and an additional taping out (this isn't common these days, but it can happen). So yeah, it's possible to speculate that they taped out on 8nm Samsung, didn't like the results from sampling and returned for more engineering, potentially targeting a smaller node.

Edit crossed out confirmed as @oldpuck has the better memory

 

[Hermii]

Doesn't the Linux commits also indicate they are working with final or close to silicon?

Edit: Oldpuck just answered my question.

 

[ILikeFeet]

If Drake was really released last year, it would inevitably be on Samsung 8nm, but with this delay there are chances that we will see it in a better lithography, being able to use his real power.
It would be kind of disappointing to receive a SoC with 1500 CUDA cores but extremely downclocked due to the battery life.

the date doesn't determine the node. if it was to be released last year, there's nothing stopping it from being 4N. that decision would have been made upon conception. 1536 cores but low clocked would be a waste of money when they could have just gone with fewer cores for the same performance and lower price per chip. see the Z1E as an example as to why many cores + low clock doesn't work that well

 

[TomNookYankees]

I remember well Eurogamer leak was in july 2016, 9 months early than switch release and 3 months before they officially announced the system (october 2016).

Lite model was leaked by Nikkei at late january, thats ~8 months before its launch.

OLED was leaked by boomberg by late may, a little more than 4 months before its launch.

So I think next HW will leaked between at least july/august 2023 (assuming its releasing spring 2024) to january/february 2024 (guessing a september/october release).

I could see the following happen:

• August 2023 leak due to Nintendo privately showing new dev kits at Gamescom
• Nintendo reiterates nothing new is coming out this fiscal year, but in September/October announce a price drop for the Switch, which boosts holiday sales for switch but also further feeds speculation of new hardware coming
• February/March 2024 Reveal trailer for REDACTED
• June Direct mainly focuses on REDACTED titles/features
• Release in November 2024

Nintendo has not historically done cross gen and while they have a history of continuing to release a few first party titles on successful previous hardware for a year or so they very quickly move on after that. Any first party "crossgen" would at most just be Switch games getting a boost mode in their next hardware.

 

[Dakhil]

see the Z1E as an example as to why many cores + low clock doesn't work that well

I don't know if the AMD Z1 Extreme was necessarily running at low frequencies, assuming that the max CPU frequency is 5.2 GHz and the max GPU frequency is 2.8 GHz for the AMD Z1 Extreme.

 

[Thraktor]

It's an assumption, and it's not based on the Nvidia hack, but a combination of Linux drivers and Nvidia employee resumes.

Bug fixes in the Linux kernel starting in April imply that testing was being done on real hardware. Later, and Nvidia employee and a consultant both updated their LinkedIn resumes to refer to building tools for electrical verification of T239 over the summer. Electrical verification is something you do post tape-out. The consultant was only on a summer contract for the project, before taking a separate Nvidia contract - implying that they left because the work was done, not because of any unhappiness on Nvidia's part.

All of this implies sampling/tape-out in the (admittedly broad) April-August window of last year.

To add to this, Nvidia added support for T239 to their cpufreq drivers in the Linux kernel in September last year. The cpufreq drivers are the part of Linux that allow the OS to communicate with the CPU to set clock speeds. This isn't the kind of thing that would be implemented pre-silicon, and historically Nvidia have only added cpufreq support in the kernel when silicon is widely available.

The T186 (Tegra X2/Parker) cpufreq driver was added in April 2017, several months after it had already began shipping.

The T194 (Xavier) cpufreq driver was added in June 2020, a year and a half after it started shipping.

The T234 (Orin) cpufreq driver was added in April 2022, about a month after Jetson Orin dev kits became available.

The T241 (Grace) cpufreq driver is currently being implemented (some initial work is here). Grace began sampling early this year.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

The 3DS didn’t flop. It sold well. Not as best as it could have, which is why Nintendo decreased its price. Nintendo overestimated the 3D fad.

No, the system did flop, Nintendo had to move heaven and earth to make sure it didn’t remain a flop. They sacrificed two platforms and put down a third, by releasing the 3DS, which was a successor to it to kill an activity that was going on during the DS end years.

As a result, the Nintendo Wii U receives collateral damage and never succeeded. That thing could have done better than it did, but it was so bad and far gone it did even worse.

The Nintendo Wii had premature end of its support, because they were getting ready to launch that new system which affects the year before (2010) the year of (2011) and the year after (2012)*. And the Nintendo DS already had developers pulling support from it(Square Enix) because of the rapid piracy at the end, and the new system wasn’t selling that well and developers were already pulling support for it.

Nintendo managed to salvage it as best as it could in the end and it did 76 million, but that machine did straight up flop when it came out. I don’t think Nintendo wants to repeat that entire course of action with the 3DS to do a price cut, and had to move a bunch of titles just to save the system.

It’s their only system after all.



*this is probably why they want to keep user engagement high especially during the transition art period as they said in the Q&A.

 

[BDGAME]

I don't know if the AMD Z1 Extreme was necessarily running at low frequencies, assuming that the max CPU frequency is 5.2 GHz and the max GPU frequency is 2.8 GHz for the AMD Z1 Extreme.

Did you know when AMD Z1 Extreme as tapped out?

 

[BDGAME]

I could see the following happen:

• August 2023 leak due to Nintendo privately showing new dev kits at Gamescom
• Nintendo reiterates nothing new is coming out this fiscal year, but in September/October announce a price drop for the Switch, which boosts holiday sales for switch but also further feeds speculation of new hardware coming
• February/March 2024 Reveal trailer for REDACTED
• June Direct mainly focuses on REDACTED titles/features
• Release in November 2024

Nintendo has not historically done cross gen and while they have a history of continuing to release a few first party titles on successful previous hardware for a year or so they very quickly move on after that. Any first party "crossgen" would at most just be Switch games getting a boost mode in their next hardware.

Nintendo never did crossgen because, in the past, when they release a new console, the previos one is already dead. But, rigth now, they are on "uncharted territory" with a new machine come and the previos still active.

So, they will need to do crossgen this time. Not the entire library, but some games will need to be released on Switch and Switch 2.

And what do you think they will sell in 2024 to wait a entire year before release the new console? They are a game company and if they stop to announce games is because the next bunch are most of crossgen and next gen exclusives. Then, they need to release the Switch 2, if not this year, on Q1 of 2024 to not loose the momentum and the incoming.

 

[Dakhil]

The T241 (Grace) cpufreq driver is currently being implemented (some initial work is here). Grace began sampling early this year.

I wonder if Grace was taped out sometime during 2H 2022. I think Grace being taped out during 2H 2022 explains how Grace was able to have LPDDR5X-8533 support, considering Samsung announced the validation of LPDDR5X-8500 on 18 October 2022 and Micron announced the mass production of LPDDR5X-8533 on 15 November 2022, and why Nvidia delayed the release of Grace from 1H 2023 to 2H 2023.

---

Did you know when AMD Z1 Extreme as tapped out?

Unfortunately, no.

 

[Pokemaniac]

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2022/221109_2e.pdf

The idea of an iterative successor died the moment Nintendo decided to do anything but iterate.

If there’s any semblance of a CG, it’ll be short lived and Nintendo will drop the switch like cold Turkey and put all their efforts into the Switch next to not have a Wii U or a 3DS scenario.

3DS actually released with a notable amount of 3rd party games at the time.

It flopped.

Why? Because people were buying it for first party games, and saw thirds as an extra.

And where were the first party games of note? Nowhere to be seen. Flopped, bombed, failed, dead on arrival, fish out of water, etc etc etc. price cut few months later and an attempt to salvage it.


Now, you can argue that this can be interpreted as “we’ll continue making new games like we’ve always done when new hard work comes out“, but the thing is, this is what Nintendo has always done. From Wii to Wii U, there was no real cross gen. From DS to 3DS there was no real cross gen. From Wii U to switch the only cross gen title was breath of the wild. From game cube to Wii the only cross gen that I’m aware of was twilight princess. From Nintendo 64 to game cube I don’t think I need to elaborate on, so I won’t.

I think the only consoles that they did a proper cross gen similar to the other platforms type of cross gen was from Game Boy advance to Nintendo DS and from Nintendo 3DS to Nintendo switch in which they supported the old platform for years after the successor already came out. But I could be wrong on these and there was another platform I’m missing.


I’m not including Pokémon in this, as that’s developed by a third party company, and has always done its own thing. I’m including Nintendo proper in-house games that they develop and publish for the Nintendo systems.

GF can and has released games on other platforms in the past.




Funnily enough, the systems that receive a proper cross GEN similar to other platforms are also the systems that sold incredibly well.


But in any case, to me they don’t seem keen on doing what we call a cross gen period like the others, and seem more keen on moving on and not looking back.



Why would it be multiplat? The idea is that it releases only in the switch to help it hit that 15M number, not take it away.

NES, SNES, GB, GBA, and 3DS all received significant support after their successors were out, occasionally actually cross gen. Not coincidentally, this is the set of Nintendo systems that continued to sell reasonably well after their successors were out. Logically, a much higher portion of the games (likely effectively 100%) released for the older system in this scenario would be cross gen on a modern system where the technical barrier to do so is relatively minimal.

It's fairly mystifying how much meaning people read into pretty nothing statements Nintendo makes to investors at times. All they're saying is they'll make exclusive games for new hardware. They're not making any particularly strong statements about what their overall output will look like.