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A slightly lengthy post, but it's speculation season so I think it's better to have fleshed out context. TLDR - there's very little unusual about Nintendo's software line up in the first half of 2023, apart from the absence of any Mario game and any June release. (which is easy enough to explain - Mario movie in April times Zelda in May)Why make H1 so packed then?
What would the strategy be behind bunching up lots of games and experiences two weeks apart in the spring, but then dropping down to one a month after?
The reason the software slate is viewed as unusual is because someone (cough Christopher Dring cough) kicked off a bunch of 'reports' that Nintendo had no major Switch titles after Zelda, didn't have games ready to exhibit at E3, and would have a weak second half to the year. Those types of reports seem to have thrown off a lot of people's expectations. Currently, Nintendo have 6 games in the first half of the year, so I think expecting somewhere around that for the second half of the year seems about right, because it would keep them running at the pace they achieved in 2022. It might go higher if they have some budget, eShop only titles. Perhaps saying things 'slow down' wasn't quite right of me; looking at the last 2 years, each half to the year is broadly comparable, though in 2021 things slowed down in the second half versus a busy May/June.
Take a look at the 2021 release slate: Super Mario 3D World, New Pokemon Snap, two Detective Club games, Miitopia, Mario Golf, Game Builder Garage, and DC Super Hero Girls, plus Bravely Default 2 regionally published by Nintendo, in the first half of the year. 9 Nintendo-published titles, internationally, in a six month period, and a huge timed third-party exclusive in Monster Hunter Rise to boot. The second half was Skyward Sword HD, Pokemon Unite (both July), WarioWare (September), Metroid Dread, Mario Party (both October), Pokemon D/P (November), and Big Brain Academy (December). Not weak, by any stretch (even if Zelda, Mario Party, and Pokemon were varying forms of re-release), but pretty standard by Nintendo's software pacing on Switch, with some doubled-up months for releases (February, May, June, July, October); plus an NSO tier expansion in October and a major EPD DLC in November. (Look how much things clumped up in May through July that year!)
In 2022 the release schedule actually slowed down; though it was impressive that the year featured entirely new software from Nintendo. You had Pokemon Legends, Kirby, Switch Sports, Mario Strikers and FE Warriors: Three Hopes (both June), plus Triangle Strategy as a timed exclusive regionally published by Nintendo. Six games in six months, like this year. You then had Xenoblade 3, Live Alive as a timed exclusive (both July), Splatoon 3 (September), Bayonetta 3 (October), Pokemon S/V (November) plus Mario + Rabbids (October) as an exclusive title; so another six, two of which were third-party games regionally published by Nintendo. Again, the line-up is varied and consistent, but the two halves of the year are broadly equal; in some months, exclusives double up (March, June, July, October).
I'm not convinced DLC release timing tells us too much about Nintendo's software slate; timing on that may well be dictated by whatever Nintendo thinks is the best way to drive adoption for the DLC rather than anything else.
A lot of talk about Nintendo's software line up and releases being off or unusual or too much has filtered through the context of multiple reports that Nintendo didn't have much coming for the second half of 2023 or after Zelda; in fact, what we have so far is a fairly standard year for Nintendo on Switch, and I expect that to remain the case in the second half.