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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST5| Uncharted Territory: Drake's Deception

When is the next general full-length Direct?

  • June

    Votes: 130 38.0%

  • July

    Votes: 40 11.7%

  • August

    Votes: 15 4.4%

  • September

    Votes: 129 37.7%

  • October

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • November

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • December

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • January

    Votes: 13 3.8%

  • February

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • Never

    Votes: 11 3.2%
  • Total voters
    342
  • Poll closed .
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Apopheniac said:
I realize this is a weird post but I thought this was easier than writing up "list of stuff we expect" from scratch
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Baten Kaitos probably isn't the action game remaster; the BK remasters are published by Bamco, while the hiring calls were for a Nintendo-contracted project, which probably means a Nintendo-published game.
 
SammyJ9 said:
The latter is still unique circumstances given covid and the lockdowns. IIRC wasn't it confirmed somewhere that the Direct Mini we got post-Animal Crossing was originally going to be a full General, but it was cut down and adjusted due to uncertainty and lockdowns and such? I could be making that up but I'm pretty sure I remember that being the case.
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Nah, a Mini was always the plan. The Mario Direct was originally an April event and got pushed to September due to Covid.

We know that because several journalists were caught off guard when the final Mario Maker 2 update dropped out the blue in late April 2020; they'd expected that to come as part of the Mario anniversary announcements. Then, when the anniversary Direct did happen, marketing information for the Mario Maker 2 anniversary events were dated as late April 2020, rather than the actual late September dates, which suggests the Mario Direct should've aired all the way back in April. So you'd have had a Mini confirming 51 Worldwide Classics and the Xenoblade date, and a few weeks later a bunch of Mario stuff would've been confirmed; instead we got one shot announcements and the Mario Direct only came six months after the Mini.

Mario was Nintendo's big marketing focus in 2020, but got thrown off and delayed to September. That's why things were especially off that year, even before Covid shifted Nintendo's plans, with zero full fat Direct in the first 3 months.
 
MisterSpo said:
Baten Kaitos probably isn't the action game remaster; the BK remasters are published by Bamco, while the hiring calls were for a Nintendo-contracted project, which probably means a Nintendo-published game.
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Not to mention that BK can't really be considered an action game, even by japanese publisher standards which can define games genre very loosely.
 
MisterSpo said:
Baten Kaitos probably isn't the action game remaster; the BK remasters are published by Bamco, while the hiring calls were for a Nintendo-contracted project, which probably means a Nintendo-published game.
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Watch it end up being Smash Ultimate DX for the new console.

Either that or it ends up being nothing like that "Smash 6" job listing back in 2014.
 
Pokemaniac said:
You're forgetting about the pair of FDC remakes, Xenoblade DE, and Detective Pikachu 2 (which still hasn't resurfaced, lol). The English localization for the former wasn't announced yet, but the game had been announced in Japan. Prime 4 also absolutely still counts, as they're still leaning on that to have something perceived as a major release after Zelda.

It was way different than just having Pikmin 4 with a date and Prime 4 and Detective Pikachu 2 still floating in the ether.
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I already mentioned Xenoblade before, and I didn’t mention Detective Pikachu because it’s still in the same spot right now. That just leaves FDC, and I’m sorry but I don’t think Nintendo was ever really counting on a pair of (at the time) JP only eShop VNs to ever really count. The whole point about Prime 4 was because it was rebooted; if Nintendo hadn’t announced it in 2017, they wouldn’t have had to announce the reboot later on. The game would probably still be under wraps.

So assuming Pikmin and Xenoblade “cancel out” the only major differences are Zelda and Bayonetta, the former of which was still clearly a long ways off in the eyes of fans and investors. Considering that Prime 4 is actually fairly imminent now compared to back in 2020, I think the situation is a lot closer then you’re making it out to be.
 
Magic-Man said:
It's not really about keeping 2024 under wraps, it's more about the Switch not having as many new games because of the future console. If H2 is mostly ports, there's no reason to announce all of them early. We're already looking at two or three month marketing windows no matter what we get in June anyways.
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Then don’t announce all of them early. But I still don’t see the reason why they’d want to keep their big holiday game under wraps.

Regardless, Nintendo has pretty much always given their ports and remasters a 3+ month lead. I don’t see why that would suddenly change.
 
Thunder84 said:
Then don’t announce all of them early. But I still don’t see the reason why they’d want to keep their big holiday game under wraps.

Regardless, Nintendo has pretty much always given their ports and remasters a 3+ month lead. I don’t see why that would suddenly change.
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It's already going to change, regardless of what happens in June. Unless we don't have an August game for some reason, but then September isn't much better. And I think the holiday game this year is 2D Mario, which doesn't need much marketing.
 
Speculation season is ON.

Gonna be weird with the first time since 2020 where I don't have to look forward to a Direct hoping for TotK (then BotW2) to show up.
My next thing to look forward to and get excited about on a magnitude that is reaching that game is Prime 4.
 
Might try and rewrite my post from last night later. Tbh the only thing that makes me think it won't be a Partner Showcase is TotK DLC
 
Apopheniac said:
Might try and rewrite my post from last night later. Tbh the only thing that makes me think it won't be a Partner Showcase is TotK DLC
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Thankfully, there's no chance we get a Partner Showcase due to no games being dated after Pikmin 4. Shareholders would be pissed.
 
Magic-Man said:
It's already going to change, regardless of what happens in June. Unless we don't have an August game for some reason, but then September isn't much better. And I think the holiday game this year is 2D Mario, which doesn't need much marketing.
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Nintendo hasn’t had a significant August release since Astral Chain, and that was at the end of the month. It’s not a prolific month for Nintendo in the Switch era. Everything else was either Twitter drop material or not published by them worldwide (Mario + Rabbids).

Fill that month with DLC and maybe a smaller title and it’s more than enough. Let July be Pikmin, and have everything else in H2 be September-December.
 
Occam's razor


In simpler language, Occam's razor states that the simplest explanation is preferable to one that is more complex. Simple theories are easier to verify. Simple solutions are easier to execute.



Pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate.
I.e. One should not postulate plurality (of reasons or causes) unless it is necessary.
Or in a later formulation

Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem.
I.e. Entities are not to be multiplied more than is necessary.
This can be interpreted in two slightly different ways. The first can be described as follows:

If there are several explanations for a phenomenon, it is better to prefer the least complicated one.
A more precise (narrower) understanding of Occam's razor concerns part of one theory:

If a part of a theory is not necessary to obtain results, it does not belong in the theory.

TLDR: mid-June Direct with announcements of H2 titles, followed by Pikmin 4 Direct week after that.
 
I'm still bearish on 2D Mario this year, but if it does I think the narrative is something to the effect of "Nintendo wanted it out closer to the movie but prioritized Zelda for other reasons." If that's not it idk what else they've got for internal titles
 
Apopheniac said:
I'm still bearish on 2D Mario this year, but if it does I think the narrative is something to the effect of "Nintendo wanted it out closer to the movie but prioritized Zelda for other reasons." If that's not it idk what else they've got for internal titles
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You cannot control release date of games and movies and to be honest, both Mario Movie and Zelda were delayed from their H2 2022 plan so it makes sense they are releasing in Spring.
 
For completely brand new games the only game rumored is the 2D DK game. I don’t think anything else is actually rumored. 2D Mario is from the hirings and logically makes sense.
 
Dark Cloud said:
For completely brand new games the only game rumored is the 2D DK game. I don’t think anything else is actually rumored. 2D Mario is from the hirings and logically makes sense.
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Even the 2D DK makes logically sense aside from also being rumored, what we know officially is that there is 2D game in the works at Tokyo - hirings (also 3D one and that's 3D Mario). Leaves us with: what's the 2D game? When you consider that 2D Mario is done in Kyoto. (yeah, there could be some collboration between Tokyo and Kyoto for new 2D Mario but I call that 0% likely.

EPD Tokyo staff has experience with 2D DK from the past (Jungle Beat). So even with this knowledge we can assume that this 2D project is either DK or brand new IP. Nothing else, definitely not Mario.
 
Apopheniac said:
I'm still bearish on 2D Mario this year, but if it does I think the narrative is something to the effect of "Nintendo wanted it out closer to the movie but prioritized Zelda for other reasons." If that's not it idk what else they've got for internal titles
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They prioritized Zelda because that was supposed to release in 2022(and so was Mario movie).
They probably never wanted to release the new Mario game too close to the movie because they wanted the movie to be a storm of its own(and it definitely worked).
After the movie is out and fresh in everyone's minds, release a new game and see the new storm happening.
It also apparently was always meant to be like this, since both Zelda and Mario Movie were supposed to release in holiday 2022 and got delayed. I don't believe they ever planned to release 2D Mario last holiday with Bayonetta 3 + Tears of the Kingdom + Pokémon Scarlet and Violet being planned already.
My current guess is before a delay they planned to release the 2D Mario in June but now it's coming in November, hence why we got no Mario game in June.
 
I think I’m leaning towards 2D Mario as the holiday game, DK and Prime 4 as two big 2024 games, and then Switch 2 in Holiday 2024 with 3D Mario. Think the spacing makes the most sense that way.
 
that rumored Genealogy remake seems fairly likely to release around early next year and doesn't seem like something they would necessarily hold for a new console if the timing didn't line up just right

I know it's not technically "brand new" but as a remake of a SNES game that never released in the West it's close enough to essentially be
 
MisterSpo said:
Baten Kaitos probably isn't the action game remaster; the BK remasters are published by Bamco, while the hiring calls were for a Nintendo-contracted project, which probably means a Nintendo-published game.
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I still think this is an originally Namco made title. That means... StarFox Assault. I don't see Nintendo contracting Namco to remake something from EPD region.

Assault seems to be the only action-esque Namco made title. Donkey Konga trilogy are pure rhythm games and Jungle Beat wasn't made by Namco.
 
Thunder84 said:
I think I’m leaning towards 2D Mario as the holiday game, DK and Prime 4 as two big 2024 games, and then Switch 2 in Holiday 2024 with 3D Mario. Think the spacing makes the most sense that way.
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Yeah, I definitely agree with this.
2D Mario this November, Metroid Prime 4 next March, Donkey Kong in June/July/September and a new 3D Mario in October/November alongside Switch 2.
rickyson33 said:
that rumored Genealogy remake seems fairly likely to release around early next year and doesn't seem like something they would necessarily hold for a new console if the timing didn't line up just right

I know it's not technically "brand new" but as a remake of a SNES game that never released in the West it's close enough to essentially be
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Yeah, I think Fire Emblem Engage's DLC being done two months after the game came out is pretty telling. I see that as an easy guess of an announcement for June or September, to release in January 2024. I'm pretty hyped to see how it looks like. I've read that FE4 is very dark so I'm hoping for Three Houses atmosphere with better graphics.
9-Volt said:
I still think this is an originally Namco made title. That means... StarFox Assault. I don't see Nintendo contracting Namco to remake something from EPD region.

Assault seems to be the only action-esque Namco made title. Donkey Konga trilogy are pure rhythm games and Jungle Beat wasn't made by Namco.
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I'm pretty divided into Star Fox Assault and Kid Icarus Upres.
Star Fox Assault at least for me that never played it looks like a better entry point in the series for someone who isn't into rail shooters, making the right adjustments it can be a very marketable game to revive the franchise.
Kid Icarus Uprising was even teased by Sakurai and 2 Smash games were made by Bamco so I think it's inevitable.
 
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I definitely don't think we will have to wait till September for some announcements, and definitely not Twitter ones as these are made only for EPD4 projects, DLC's and smaller eShop releases. This will be longer post, so let me explain.

Earnings are coming out in 2 days, on May 9th and Nintendo will have these games on their schedule:

Tears of the Kingdom - May 12th
Pikmin 4 - July 21st
Metroid Prime 4 - TBA

And that's it. While only 3 titles on the list, the fact that TotK is coming out in few days makes this "somewhat alright", Nintendo and investors knows it prints big money so it's okay I guess. They can reassure them at the meeting that there are more titles coming later this year.

At this earnings report Nintendo will also announce date for their shareholders meeting, which will be around late June. Do you really think they will speak in front of investors with 2 titles on their schedule? With seemingly no hardware in sight as of now? And even one title with TBA on it.

Pikmin 4 - July 21st
Metroid Prime 4 - TBA


The talk about Partner Showcase

This has been said multiple times, but the reason the last year Direct was a Partner was that E3 got cancelled and they had contracts with 3rd parties. E3 2022 was cancelled and Nintendo was seemingly going to attend so there was no turning point, and it likely has not made any sense for them to do full General and show Zelda and (maybe reveal PIkmin 4)/FE: Engage? going by the September 2022 Direct.

This year, ever since February, Nintendo said that they will not be attending E3, so it's pretty different as they have no obligations with 3rd parties and others to show something in June.

However, the fact that they are attending Gamescom in late August speaks for itself. Why would they attend Gamescom if they had nothing to show/or announced at that point? We would get Pikmin 4 session with Miyamoto? The game, which at that time will be already month out? We know from past Gamescom presentations that Nintendo likes to show new gameplay of their upcoming games there, in their "Nintendo Presents" sort of like Treehouse livestreams: Astral Chain, Luigi's Mansion 3, Xenoblade 2, Link's Awakening, Super Mario Odyssey just to name a few. This never was just a reharsh of gameplay from E3, they always showed new things just prepared for Gamescom.

I would also rule Direct Mini, as they seemingly have enough content to put together a General Direct. Splatoon 3: Side Order, Mario Kart wave, potential TotK DLC, Metroid Prime 4, 2D Metroid and some smaller titles and casual things or that F-Zero GX remaster. I would also argue that it's highly unlikely they would show or even announce for first time something like Prime 4 and 2D Mario in a small, non hosted Direct Mini and these are even shadowdropped.

TLDR: By Late June they will have something announced.
 
I'm thinking Prime 4 and maybe DK this holiday season transitioning into the Switch 2 launch in H1 next year

I don't think we'll see Mario in any dimension until the Switch 2
 
NabiscoFelt said:
I'm thinking Prime 4 and maybe DK this holiday season transitioning into the Switch 2 launch in H1 next year

I don't think we'll see Mario in any dimension until the Switch 2
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There's at least two Mario games in any given year. I'd be pretty surprised if there wasn't one this year.
 
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I expect a full on direct in June/July just because Nintendo has a barren second half of 2023. Pikmin 4 is July, and after that there is nothing announced outside of dlc. Prime 4 is probably the big holiday game for core gamers alongside a big remaster/remake like F-Zero GX or the rumored action remaster. For the more casual audience I expect we'll see a game like Rhythm Heaven or Tomodachi Life and a Mario Party Superstars 2 focused on the GC era. For a general audience I expect the rumored 2D Donkey Kong will also come out this year, and TotK's dlc will drop during the holiday period as well.

As for predicting 3rd party stuff, whatever Wayforward's exclusive is will be shown off at the next direct. I expect a couple of "bigger" late ports are announced, stuff like Tales of Arise, Strangers of Paradise FF Origins, Soul Hackers 2, etc. I think we see something from Capcom and Square Enix that is either Switch exclusive or multiplatform but announced first at the direct. Perhaps a new AA game/collection from Capcom and another ps1 remaster port from SE like the rumored Final Fantasy Tactics one. Also I expect Terf Legacy's Switch port to get a focus.

What I don't expect to see is any hint of the next Switch hardware or the next mainline Mario. I don't expect to see a Xenosaga remaster collection, or any new systems added to NSO. I don't expect them to frame the next direct as a mini or a partner showcase.
 
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9-Volt said:
I still think this is an originally Namco made title. That means... StarFox Assault. I don't see Nintendo contracting Namco to remake something from EPD region.

Assault seems to be the only action-esque Namco made title. Donkey Konga trilogy are pure rhythm games and Jungle Beat wasn't made by Namco.
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Assault is possible, yeah, but I think Kid Icarus Uprising is in the running, too.
 
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I think they’ll actually show Metroid Prime 4 this year since they finally released Prime 1 remastered. Maybe they’ll release an update in the fall with amiibo support to tie the two games together. Other than that, Zelda DLC for sure. They still have MK8 tracks left too. Maybe they have the DK game but I think their 2H will mostly be DLC and pikmin 4.

So I’m guessing partner in June, general in September. No new NSO platforms, but a trickling of games throughout the year. Lots of GBA games they can add, plus several announced N64 games and hopefully more Rare.

Edit: maybe one of those rumored GC-era things like F-Zero or namco
 
I am curious to see if Tears of the Kingdom will prove to be the first game ever to slow a speculation thread down,

I am also curious to see if the June Direct will be the time when we finally hear about Outer Wilds and, of course, Silksong.
 
Quick little direct mockup I made since I'm bored. Very safe, but it's nice to organize everything.
  • SPOTLIGHTS (Ordered)
    • Opens with Definitely Not New Super Mario Bros. Releasing in November.
    • First mid-direct spotlight is Pikmin 4 stuff
    • Second mid-direct spotlight is Dragon Quest Trilogy HD-2D, expanded from just Dragon Quest III. Releasing in October.
    • Penultimate spotlight is Splatoon 3: Side Order, releasing in August
      • I know the DLC announcements have been a lot tighter than usual lately, but Splatoon seems to be getting extra love as of late
    • Ends with a Metroid Prime 4 teaser for 2024
  • HIGHLIGTHS (Not ordered)
    • Mario Kart BCP Wave 5
    • Mario + Rabbids Wave 2, including a teaser for the Wave 3 Rayman expansion
    • Some nice looking remaster releasing in September, I'll say Kid Icarus
    • F-Zero GX Remastered, shadowdropped just like Metroid Prime
    • More NSO retro games
    • Baten Kaitos trailer
    • DecaPolice trailer
    • Something Ace Attorney (I believe dammit)
    • Other stuff that I'm probably forgetting/don't know about
EPD Donkey Kong and Fire Emblem 4 Remake are saved for the September direct.
 
SammyJ9 said:
Stop, you're giving me bad flashbacks here. I have worked very hard to purge the NLA music from my brain
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which is such a shame because that game has great music otherwise

meanwhile it has that track in the games only town for you to hear over and over again
 
It would be on-brand for Switch era Nintendo to skip having a holiday game entirely this year. Wouldn't be surprised if they aren't launching anything major after Pikmin 4 and are saving everything for the next system. Or maybe shadowdrop a small H2 title on Twitter at most.

They can coast on TOTK's success, Pikmin 4, and Zelda/Pokemon/Mario Kart DLC.
 
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