StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST5| Uncharted Territory: Drake's Deception

[MisterSpo]

Why make H1 so packed then?

What would the strategy be behind bunching up lots of games and experiences two weeks apart in the spring, but then dropping down to one a month after?

A slightly lengthy post, but it's speculation season so I think it's better to have fleshed out context. TLDR - there's very little unusual about Nintendo's software line up in the first half of 2023, apart from the absence of any Mario game and any June release. (which is easy enough to explain - Mario movie in April times Zelda in May)

The reason the software slate is viewed as unusual is because someone (cough Christopher Dring cough) kicked off a bunch of 'reports' that Nintendo had no major Switch titles after Zelda, didn't have games ready to exhibit at E3, and would have a weak second half to the year. Those types of reports seem to have thrown off a lot of people's expectations. Currently, Nintendo have 6 games in the first half of the year, so I think expecting somewhere around that for the second half of the year seems about right, because it would keep them running at the pace they achieved in 2022. It might go higher if they have some budget, eShop only titles. Perhaps saying things 'slow down' wasn't quite right of me; looking at the last 2 years, each half to the year is broadly comparable, though in 2021 things slowed down in the second half versus a busy May/June.

Take a look at the 2021 release slate: Super Mario 3D World, New Pokemon Snap, two Detective Club games, Miitopia, Mario Golf, Game Builder Garage, and DC Super Hero Girls, plus Bravely Default 2 regionally published by Nintendo, in the first half of the year. 9 Nintendo-published titles, internationally, in a six month period, and a huge timed third-party exclusive in Monster Hunter Rise to boot. The second half was Skyward Sword HD, Pokemon Unite (both July), WarioWare (September), Metroid Dread, Mario Party (both October), Pokemon D/P (November), and Big Brain Academy (December). Not weak, by any stretch (even if Zelda, Mario Party, and Pokemon were varying forms of re-release), but pretty standard by Nintendo's software pacing on Switch, with some doubled-up months for releases (February, May, June, July, October); plus an NSO tier expansion in October and a major EPD DLC in November. (Look how much things clumped up in May through July that year!)

In 2022 the release schedule actually slowed down; though it was impressive that the year featured entirely new software from Nintendo. You had Pokemon Legends, Kirby, Switch Sports, Mario Strikers and FE Warriors: Three Hopes (both June), plus Triangle Strategy as a timed exclusive regionally published by Nintendo. Six games in six months, like this year. You then had Xenoblade 3, Live Alive as a timed exclusive (both July), Splatoon 3 (September), Bayonetta 3 (October), Pokemon S/V (November) plus Mario + Rabbids (October) as an exclusive title; so another six, two of which were third-party games regionally published by Nintendo. Again, the line-up is varied and consistent, but the two halves of the year are broadly equal; in some months, exclusives double up (March, June, July, October).

I'm not convinced DLC release timing tells us too much about Nintendo's software slate; timing on that may well be dictated by whatever Nintendo thinks is the best way to drive adoption for the DLC rather than anything else.

A lot of talk about Nintendo's software line up and releases being off or unusual or too much has filtered through the context of multiple reports that Nintendo didn't have much coming for the second half of 2023 or after Zelda; in fact, what we have so far is a fairly standard year for Nintendo on Switch, and I expect that to remain the case in the second half.

 

[Dark Cloud]

It tells me Nintendo will have titles that don’t need a long announcement to release for second half of 2023. They knew they didn’t have to announce any games in February. A direct in June is long enough for all the games coming in H2 2023 (5-6 months window).

That’s why 2D Mario fits so well because Nintendo has a clear history of doing a small window from announcement to release with them. It also fits with all these port rumors, e.g., TTYD remaster, F-Zero GX remaster, etc. They don’t need a long window at all and neither does games like Mario Party, Mario Baseball, DK, Wario Land, Detective Pikachu 2, etc.

 

[MisterSpo]

It tells me Nintendo will have titles that don’t need a long announcement to release for second half of 2023. They knew they didn’t have to announce any games in February. A direct in June is long enough for all the games coming in H2 2023 (5-6 months window).

That’s why 2D Mario fits so well because Nintendo has a clear history of doing a small window from announcement to release with them. It also fits with all these port rumors, e.g., TTYD remaster, F-Zero GX remaster, etc. They don’t need a long window at all and neither does games like Mario Party, Mario Baseball, DK, Wario Land, Detective Pikachu 2, etc.

Yeah, I think this is the kind of thing we should expect. 2D Mario would be my big bet for Christmas; I'm also still half-expecting an Animal Crossing spin-off of some sort, perhaps with help from NdCube.

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

if TTYD remaster is real I expect it to be a January or February release TBH

 

[VegiHam]

A lot of talk about Nintendo's software line up and releases being off or unusual or too much has filtered through the context of multiple reports that Nintendo didn't have much coming for the second half of 2023 or after Zelda; in fact, what we have so far is a fairly standard year for Nintendo on Switch, and I expect that to remain the case in the second half.

...

I don't like that this is extremely reasonable and makes sense, because I wanted to be unreasonably hyped, but I can't deny that you've build a strong case here.

 

[MisterSpo]

...

I don't like that this is extremely reasonable and makes sense, because I wanted to be unreasonably hyped, but I can't deny that you've build a strong case here.

To be fair, it could easily be a strong and interesting line up. Pikmin 4 is a really positive start to the second half of 2023, and you'll have DLC coming for Splatoon 3, Pokemon and Mario Kart at least; possibly a Zelda expansion, too.

 

[EvilChameleon]

if TTYD remaster is real I expect it to be a January or February release TBH

If that's the case, wake me up when May, June, July, August, September, October, November & December end.

 

[FeiFongWong]

Nintendo not having revealed the second half titles doesn't mean it's going to be crazy full. There's obviously going to be something, but in the last 2 years the release slate actually slowed down, in terms of the number of releases, during the second half of the year.

You're probably looking at 4 to 6 games, including Pikmin 4, for July through December.

Wow, to me (mainly xbox user for past few years) that is crazy full. If I get baten kaitos and 4 more games from ninny I'll be in heaven.

 

[Barely Able]

If we get Old Shit Year plus new 2D games for the second half of the year, I will be happy. Most of these GameCube rumors will be new games to a lot of people anyway. Still so much to play that I haven’t gotten to from last year. Plus we are feasting with RPG rereleases, which I know I’m excited for (understand some might not be into those)

 

[Beanstar40]

They still havent released the zelda remasters,
Woolly world, or xeboblade x on switch. That would be a pretty good end of the year roster if they are holding something new like a prime 4 for the launch of the new system. Speaking out of my ass of course, the people at nintendo make much more than i do to make these choices.

 

[Mr Doggo]

Spoiler: BOO!

first game to obtain negative sales, what a record!

 

[Pokemaniac]

A slightly lengthy post, but it's speculation season so I think it's better to have fleshed out context. TLDR - there's very little unusual about Nintendo's software line up in the first half of 2023, apart from the absence of any Mario game and any June release. (which is easy enough to explain - Mario movie in April times Zelda in May)

The reason the software slate is viewed as unusual is because someone (cough Christopher Dring cough) kicked off a bunch of 'reports' that Nintendo had no major Switch titles after Zelda, didn't have games ready to exhibit at E3, and would have a weak second half to the year. Those types of reports seem to have thrown off a lot of people's expectations. Currently, Nintendo have 6 games in the first half of the year, so I think expecting somewhere around that for the second half of the year seems about right, because it would keep them running at the pace they achieved in 2022. It might go higher if they have some budget, eShop only titles. Perhaps saying things 'slow down' wasn't quite right of me; looking at the last 2 years, each half to the year is broadly comparable, though in 2021 things slowed down in the second half versus a busy May/June.

Take a look at the 2021 release slate: Super Mario 3D World, New Pokemon Snap, two Detective Club games, Miitopia, Mario Golf, Game Builder Garage, and DC Super Hero Girls, plus Bravely Default 2 regionally published by Nintendo, in the first half of the year. 9 Nintendo-published titles, internationally, in a six month period, and a huge timed third-party exclusive in Monster Hunter Rise to boot. The second half was Skyward Sword HD, Pokemon Unite (both July), WarioWare (September), Metroid Dread, Mario Party (both October), Pokemon D/P (November), and Big Brain Academy (December). Not weak, by any stretch (even if Zelda, Mario Party, and Pokemon were varying forms of re-release), but pretty standard by Nintendo's software pacing on Switch, with some doubled-up months for releases (February, May, June, July, October); plus an NSO tier expansion in October and a major EPD DLC in November. (Look how much things clumped up in May through July that year!)

In 2022 the release schedule actually slowed down; though it was impressive that the year featured entirely new software from Nintendo. You had Pokemon Legends, Kirby, Switch Sports, Mario Strikers and FE Warriors: Three Hopes (both June), plus Triangle Strategy as a timed exclusive regionally published by Nintendo. Six games in six months, like this year. You then had Xenoblade 3, Live Alive as a timed exclusive (both July), Splatoon 3 (September), Bayonetta 3 (October), Pokemon S/V (November) plus Mario + Rabbids (October) as an exclusive title; so another six, two of which were third-party games regionally published by Nintendo. Again, the line-up is varied and consistent, but the two halves of the year are broadly equal; in some months, exclusives double up (March, June, July, October).

I'm not convinced DLC release timing tells us too much about Nintendo's software slate; timing on that may well be dictated by whatever Nintendo thinks is the best way to drive adoption for the DLC rather than anything else.

A lot of talk about Nintendo's software line up and releases being off or unusual or too much has filtered through the context of multiple reports that Nintendo didn't have much coming for the second half of 2023 or after Zelda; in fact, what we have so far is a fairly standard year for Nintendo on Switch, and I expect that to remain the case in the second half.

The further we get from Dring's comments, the more absurd that they look, but Nintendo's lineup does still look quite strange, at least in the moment. They're allowing their announcement buffer to almost completely run out, and we're entering a nearly unprecedented period of knowing almost nothing about what Nintendo has in development. I don't doubt that things will look quite a bit different when we cross the event horizon and Nintendo finally starts acknowledging months after July exist, but at the moment, the idea that Nintendo is acting weird is absolutely not misplaced.

 

[LukasManak22]

The further we get from Dring's comments, the more absurd that they look, but Nintendo's lineup does still look quite strange, at least in the moment.

As @Raccoon would say, he is getting paid for what we are doing for fun.

 

[Johna X]

They still havent released the zelda remasters,
Woolly world, or xeboblade x on switch. That would be a pretty good end of the year roster if they are holding something new like a prime 4 for the launch of the new system. Speaking out of my ass of course, the people at nintendo make much more than i do to make these choices.

Zelda is the only one I'd bet on
They said X would be a big effort to port, at this rate I'd expect a DE for X at best on Switch 2, if not they've just moved on entirely
Like with the amount of effort they're hyping up X to have making a simple EPD style wii u port seems not worth it

Woolly World to me feels like they feel either Crafted World or the 3ds port makes it un-needed, admittedly we have gotten a 3ds remaster on switch and we did get Captain Toad on Switch and 3DS at the same time, but never a port of a wii u game later on that was also on 3ds, it just feels like since it wasn't a dual thing they think it fills the need, also Crafted World. I think many would argue Woolly and Crafted are different games, that the big missing ports cause of sequels (Sm4sh, SMM, Splatoon) are inherently iterated on in a way a platformer can't be due to levels themselves very much making the game, but I am not sure if Nintendo sees it that way. The only notable singleplayer port that that style got a sequel to on switch and still happened that i can think of is Odyssey vs 3D World, but the linearity is a big part of why I'd wager. We are likely to get a 2d mario despite NSMBUDX, of course I assume it won't be NSMB but still a 2d platformer so probably very comparable to the 2 Yoshi "World" games but the difference here is the sequel came later. I hope I am wrong but I just feel one way or another they feel the niche that Woolly World covers has already been filled, and the "saving" of that game off of a failed console already happened on the 3ds (tho given its place in the 3ds' lifespan i wouldn't be surprised if it did pretty poorly)

I wrote way more then needed there lmao but

 

[MisterSpo]

The further we get from Dring's comments, the more absurd that they look, but Nintendo's lineup does still look quite strange, at least in the moment. They're allowing their announcement buffer to almost completely run out, and we're entering a nearly unprecedented period of knowing almost nothing about what Nintendo has in development. I don't doubt that things will look quite a bit different when we cross the event horizon and Nintendo finally starts acknowledging months after July exist, but at the moment, the idea that Nintendo is acting weird is absolutely not misplaced.

I don't think it's all that odd; the Switch is old, and the system's peak is clearly behind it, which presumably means many teams are moving or have moved to new hardware. There's less incentive now to dangle carrots in front of customers to get them to buy a Switch, partially because saturation will begin to happen, partially because the enormous existing library can do that work on its own. How many games like Smash, Zelda, or Splatoon 3 remain in development for Switch? Perhaps some are (I think 2D Mario for example, certainly is or is nearly done), but other longer term, large scale titles are either going to the successor or are cross gen.

I also think some of this can be explained by the combination of Zelda and the Super Mario movie in April/May; two of Nintendo's biggest ever product launches happening back to back likely meant that Nintendo's focus was on getting those out, and Nintendo also wanted as much focus as humanly possible on those two launches, which meant a heavy marketing focus on those two products.

If this were the second or third year of Switch, I'd agree it'd be very weird for Nintendo not to clue people in on some longer term bets. In year 2, for example, before Smash was even out, they'd announced titles like Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion 3 for year 3; and before those games were out, they'd teased the new Zelda. But we're in year 7 of Switch, so that long term focus doesn't need to be there; and June is entirely empty to ramp up the second half marketing, just like in 2021 when they announced almost all the second half titles that June.

 

[Pokemaniac]

As @Raccoon would say, he is getting paid for what we are doing for fun.

That's much more charitable than my read that it sounds like sour grapes over Nintendo not contracting with his employer to run their events.

I don't think it's all that odd; the Switch is old, and the system's peak is clearly behind it, which presumably means many teams are moving or have moved to new hardware. There's less incentive now to dangle carrots in front of customers to get them to buy a Switch, partially because saturation will begin to happen, partially because the enormous existing library can do that work on its own. How many games like Smash, Zelda, or Splatoon 3 remain in development for Switch? Perhaps some are (I think 2D Mario for example, certainly is or is nearly done), but other longer term, large scale titles are either going to the successor or are cross gen.

I also think some of this can be explained by the combination of Zelda and the Super Mario movie in April/May; two of Nintendo's biggest ever product launches happening back to back likely meant that Nintendo's focus was on getting those out, and Nintendo also wanted as much focus as humanly possible on those two launches, which meant a heavy marketing focus on those two products.

If this were the second or third year of Switch, I'd agree it'd be very weird for Nintendo not to clue people in on some longer term bets. In year 2, for example, before Smash was even out, they'd announced titles like Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion 3 for year 3; and before those games were out, they'd teased the new Zelda. But we're in year 7 of Switch, so that long term focus doesn't need to be there; and June is entirely empty to ramp up the second half marketing, just like in 2021 when they announced almost all the second half titles that June.

Nintendo getting down to a single dated release and only 2 undated ones (if you count Detective Pikachu 2, the game everyone, including myself, keeps forgetting was even announced and is more Nintendo adjacent) is very odd regardless of the Switch's age.

Also, as I've said elsewhere, this is absolutely not the time for Nintendo to start coasting on smaller releases. A big part of Nintendo's success during the Switch generation has been the relative consistency of their release schedule, and the ideal scenario for Nintendo is to keep their consistent release cadence going up to and through the launch of their next console. With their first half this year showing no signs of faltering (quite the opposite, in fact), I have little doubt Nintendo will manage to execute on this.

 

[MisterSpo]

Nintendo getting down to a single dated release and only 2 undated ones (if you count Detective Pikachu 2, the game everyone, including myself, keeps forgetting was even announced and is more Nintendo adjacent) is very odd regardless of the Switch's age.

If we got to late July and this was still the case then yes, I'd think it's deeply odd and pretty troubling. But they've got June as the perfect window to make announcements, and I don't think it's strange they're letting Zelda launch first before they give more games some limelight.

Also, as I've said elsewhere, this is absolutely not the time for Nintendo to start coasting on smaller releases. A big part of Nintendo's success during the Switch generation has been the relative consistency of their release schedule, and the ideal scenario for Nintendo is to keep their consistent release cadence going up to and through the launch of their next console. With their first half this year showing no signs of faltering (quite the opposite, in fact), I have little doubt Nintendo will manage to execute on this.

Sure, I agree, and I didn't say they would try to coast or that they should drop consistent releases; I think the formula they've hit on Switch has been very successful and I see no reason to deviate. I'd be more concerned for later Switch support and the next system if Nintendo had noticeably reduced their release schedule, because that would suggest they were struggling to get enough projects together. Promisingly, that seems not to be the case.

I expect, based on the first half of this year, Nintendo's software development is going well enough for both Switch and new hardware (and surely that's in part thanks to overlapping development). My personal expectation is a new mainline Mario later this year with several other releases to boot.

What I'm saying is there's little reason to tease 2025 or 2026 Switch projects, whereas back in 2018 and 2019 they would tease games that were a year or more away; this year they can use June to confirm titles for August through December, and September can confirm 2024 titles. The Switch will continue to decline but the large and varied software market, combined with Nintendo continuing their usual level of support this year and some support for several more years, will keep that ticking along. But I don't think it's unreasonable at this point to suggest Nintendo will be allocating more and more resources to a successor system (however they position it and however much cross-gen support there is) as they gradually seek to supplant the current Switch as their primary product in the next few years.

 

[Aurc]

Great thread, Raccoon. Thanks for putting it together.

I read the first few pages, and saw mentions of Metroid Prime 4. I just want everyone to remember how good the process has been to Metroid fans, these past couple years. We went from Hell to Taco Bell, and our conviction must hold steady, so that the process can continue to do its work. Don't let your faith be shaken.

We're at least seeing the game this year.

 

[Pokemaniac]

If we got to late July and this was still the case then yes, I'd think it's deeply odd and pretty troubling. But they've got June as the perfect window to make announcements, and I don't think it's strange they're letting Zelda launch first before they give more games some limelight.

Sure, I agree, and I didn't say they would try to coast or that they should drop consistent releases; I think the formula they've hit on Switch has been very successful and I see no reason to deviate. I'd be more concerned for later Switch support and the next system if Nintendo had noticeably reduced their release schedule, because that would suggest they were struggling to get enough projects together. Promisingly, that seems not to be the case.

I expect, based on the first half of this year, Nintendo's software development is going well enough for both Switch and new hardware (and surely that's in part thanks to overlapping development). My personal expectation is a new mainline Mario later this year with several other releases to boot.

What I'm saying is there's little reason to tease 2025 or 2026 Switch projects, whereas back in 2018 and 2019 they would tease games that were a year or more away; this year they can use June to confirm titles for August through December, and September can confirm 2024 titles. The Switch will continue to decline but the large and varied software market, combined with Nintendo continuing their usual level of support this year and some support for several more years, will keep that ticking along. But I don't think it's unreasonable at this point to suggest Nintendo will be allocating more and more resources to a successor system (however they position it and however much cross-gen support there is) as they gradually seek to supplant the current Switch as their primary product in the next few years.

Nintendo doesn't usually let big releases stop them from announcing things afterwards like that. I'm not sure where people get the idea it's something they do regularly.

Typically, they would at least show their centerpiece fall title in the Q1 Direct, but for one of the first times ever, the first party announcements in that Direct (which were also few in number in the first place) stuck very closely to the stated "first half" timeframe, instead of going over like normal. Not talking about 2025, 2026, or even 2024 is not especially strange, given the circumstances, but extending that to the second half of 2023 is quite unusual, and suggests that either they're having some significant trouble pinning down a schedule right now (doesn't seem super likely, with the first half being at the point where they almost seem to be dumping things to get them out of the way), or that Switch 2 is close, and they don't want to talk about anything else until they can show it on that.

 

[Chaotic Neutral]

Joke’s on us because the real successor to the Switch is the eventually unlimited sandbox mechanisms in the upcoming TOTK DLC, releases episodically throughout the next theoretical console generation.

 

[SirShorse]

IMO definitely no Partner Showcase in June. Sure, Nintendo can have a lighter H2 this year but there's still 5 empty months that need filling, and Nintendo's not going to rely on Pikmin 4 and DLC for it's second half.
Could also argue they would ride the TOTK hype but betting on any single release driving your sales for months is a bad bet, whatever game or company it is.

 

[Thunder84]

Nintendo doesn't usually let big releases stop them from announcing things afterwards like that. I'm not sure where people get the idea it's something they do regularly.

Typically, they would at least show their centerpiece fall title in the Q1 Direct, but for one of the first times ever, the first party announcements in that Direct (which were also few in number in the first place) stuck very closely to the stated "first half" timeframe, instead of going over like normal. Not talking about 2025, 2026, or even 2024 is not especially strange, given the circumstances, but extending that to the second half of 2023 is quite unusual, and suggests that either they're having some significant trouble pinning down a schedule right now (doesn't seem super likely, with the first half being at the point where they almost seem to be dumping things to get them out of the way), or that Switch 2 is close, and they don't want to talk about anything else until they can show it on that.

We haven’t had anything on the scale of Tears of the Kingdom in H1 besides Breath of the Wild (in which they pretty much had to show off the rest of their year due to the Switch launch) and New Horizons (in which they had nothing dated besides Xenoblade Definitive, even before COVID hit). Given that the former was unique circumstances and the latter is more or less a perfect match with what’s happening right now, I don’t think it’s that out of the ordinary.

 

[SirShorse]

Joke’s on us because the real successor to the Switch is the eventually unlimited sandbox mechanisms in the upcoming TOTK DLC, releases episodically throughout the next theoretical console generation.

build your own nintendo console in TOTK

 

[Pokemaniac]

We haven’t had anything on the scale of Tears of the Kingdom in H1 besides Breath of the Wild (in which they pretty much had to show off the rest of their year due to the Switch launch) and New Horizons (in which they had nothing dated besides Xenoblade Definitive, even before COVID hit). Given that the former was unique circumstances and the latter is more or less a perfect match with what’s happening right now, I don’t think it’s that out of the ordinary.

2020 was a pretty different situation. COVID was already on the horizon and there were more undated games. I don't think it can be generalized.

 

[SammyJ9]

We haven’t had anything on the scale of Tears of the Kingdom in H1 besides Breath of the Wild (in which they pretty much had to show off the rest of their year due to the Switch launch) and New Horizons (in which they had nothing dated besides Xenoblade Definitive, even before COVID hit). Given that the former was unique circumstances and the latter is more or less a perfect match with what’s happening right now, I don’t think it’s that out of the ordinary.

The latter is still unique circumstances given covid and the lockdowns. IIRC wasn't it confirmed somewhere that the Direct Mini we got post-Animal Crossing was originally going to be a full General, but it was cut down and adjusted due to uncertainty and lockdowns and such? I could be making that up but I'm pretty sure I remember that being the case.

 

[Pokemaniac]

The latter is still unique circumstances given covid and the lockdowns. IIRC wasn't it confirmed somewhere that the Direct Mini we got post-Animal Crossing was originally going to be a full General, but it was cut down and adjusted due to uncertainty and lockdowns and such? I could be making that up but I'm pretty sure I remember that being the case.

I don't think it's been confirmed, but it's pretty obvious COVID was having significant impacts on Nintendo's marketing by then.

 

[Thunder84]

2020 was a pretty different situation. COVID was already on the horizon and there were more undated games. I don't think it can be generalized.

We were looking at a near entirely blank slate after Animal Crossing well before COVID was ever a thing. It might have changed their general marketing strategy after Animal Crossing, but I don’t think it really changed how they handled the marketing before it came out. They would’ve had less than a month to delay an entire direct by over a month, and that’s assuming they changed plans the moment the first case hit. There were only 20 active cases at the start of February.

I firmly believe that the plan was always to release New Horizons first before showing off anything else. The pandemic probably shifted things from a full blown general to a mini, but I don’t think it affected the timeline of events.

 

[stodesign12]

IMO definitely no Partner Showcase in June. Sure, Nintendo can have a lighter H2 this year but there's still 5 empty months that need filling, and Nintendo's not going to rely on Pikmin 4 and DLC for it's second half.
Could also argue they would ride the TOTK hype but betting on any single release driving your sales for months is a bad bet, whatever game or company it is.

A Partner Showcase could perfectly fill those months with last gen ports, let's say Fallout 4, Dark Souls 3, Batman Arkham, Yakuza Zero, etc. and of course new games.
Partner + first party twitter drops is a possibility.

 

[frog]

 

[Magic-Man]

A Partner Showcase could perfectly fill those months with last gen ports, let's say Fallout 4, Dark Souls 3, Batman Arkham, Yakuza Zero, etc. and of course new games.
Partner + first party twitter drops is a possibility.

No, it really isn't. Nintendo hasn't done a twitter announcement for a game in a long time. It's only been used for DLC and updates recently.

 

[JorgenRaft]

No, it really isn't. Nintendo hasn't done a twitter announcement for a game in a long time. It's only been used for DLC and updates recently.

I mean that still makes it a possibility. If they never did them previously, that'd be another thing.

 

[Magic-Man]

I mean that still makes it a possibility. If they never did them previously, that'd be another thing.

That was only a COVID thing though, and everything that got announced on Twitter was originally rumored for a Direct that got cancelled.

 

[Pokemaniac]

We were looking at a near entirely blank slate after Animal Crossing well before COVID was ever a thing. It might have changed their general marketing strategy after Animal Crossing, but I don’t think it really changed how they handled the marketing before it came out. They would’ve had less than a month to delay an entire direct by over a month, and that’s assuming they changed plans the moment the first case hit. There were only 20 active cases at the start of February.

I firmly believe that the plan was always to release New Horizons first before showing off anything else. The pandemic probably shifted things from a full blown general to a mini, but I don’t think it affected the timeline of events.

Even if the timing was always planned that way, they still had a lot more undated games. Both dated and undated games are running dangerously low right now.

 

[JorgenRaft]

That was only a COVID thing though, and everything that got announced on Twitter was originally rumored for a Direct that got cancelled.

Right, I don't think it's incredibly likely to happen but I just wouldn't go as far as to saw it's impossible.

 

[Thunder84]

Even if the timing was always planned that way, they still had a lot more undated games. Both dated and undated games are running dangerously low right now.

Only two they had were Zelda (which obviously wasn’t coming out in 2020) and Bayonetta 3 (which wasn’t exactly a sales juggernaut, and arguably isn’t 1st party anyway). Not to mention Metroid Prime 4, which wouldn’t have been announced if it hadn’t been rebooted. I don’t think I’d really classify that as “a lot”. More, sure, but not significantly more to the point where I think it makes a realistic difference.

Maybe there is something different cooking at Nintendo that’s causing this sort of marketing, but I don’t think the situation is so extreme that it has to be something different. The New Horizons situation was similar enough that it’s entirely possible we get a standard or mini direct in June without really missing a beat.

 

[Magic-Man]

I still think a Mini makes the most sense for June. The summer should be pretty full between Tears of the Kingdom (not technically summer but it's pretty close), Pikmin 4, and Mario Kart DLC. Most of the rumored titles are ports. I could see Nintendo announcing a port and a smaller casual title in a Mini, saving the reveal for whatever the holiday game is for the September Direct. Maybe Paper Mario and Everybody's 1-2 Switch?

 

[Thunder84]

I still think a Mini makes the most sense for June. The summer should be pretty full between Tears of the Kingdom (not technically summer but it's pretty close), Pikmin 4, and Mario Kart DLC. Most of the rumored titles are ports. I could see Nintendo announcing a port and a smaller casual title in a Mini, saving the reveal for whatever the holiday game is for the September Direct. Maybe Paper Mario and Everybody's 1-2 Switch?

Big hangup is that a two month marketing cycle is incredibly short for a holiday title. Not impossible or anything, but the only other time they’ve done it is COVID, and Age of Calamity wasn’t even published by them in Japan. Would they really sit on their big seller for that long?

Not to mention that any games from October or earlier would likely need to be announced in the Mini, and at that point you might as well toss in the holiday game + a 2024 teaser and make it a General.

 

[Raccoon]

I still think a Mini makes the most sense for June. The summer should be pretty full between Tears of the Kingdom (not technically summer but it's pretty close), Pikmin 4, and Mario Kart DLC. Most of the rumored titles are ports. I could see Nintendo announcing a port and a smaller casual title in a Mini, saving the reveal for whatever the holiday game is for the September Direct. Maybe Paper Mario and Everybody's 1-2 Switch?

that would leave the holiday game with only a couple months from announcement to launch

 

[JorgenRaft]

Not direct related but one thing I think that’d be cool to see is Pikmin 4 at SGF’s show floor.

Being able to watch demo footage of 3 at E3 10 years ago was fun.

 

[GamerJM]

I don't think it's all that odd; the Switch is old, and the system's peak is clearly behind it, which presumably means many teams are moving or have moved to new hardware. There's less incentive now to dangle carrots in front of customers to get them to buy a Switch, partially because saturation will begin to happen, partially because the enormous existing library can do that work on its own. How many games like Smash, Zelda, or Splatoon 3 remain in development for Switch? Perhaps some are (I think 2D Mario for example, certainly is or is nearly done), but other longer term, large scale titles are either going to the successor or are cross gen.

I also think some of this can be explained by the combination of Zelda and the Super Mario movie in April/May; two of Nintendo's biggest ever product launches happening back to back likely meant that Nintendo's focus was on getting those out, and Nintendo also wanted as much focus as humanly possible on those two launches, which meant a heavy marketing focus on those two products.

If this were the second or third year of Switch, I'd agree it'd be very weird for Nintendo not to clue people in on some longer term bets. In year 2, for example, before Smash was even out, they'd announced titles like Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion 3 for year 3; and before those games were out, they'd teased the new Zelda. But we're in year 7 of Switch, so that long term focus doesn't need to be there; and June is entirely empty to ramp up the second half marketing, just like in 2021 when they announced almost all the second half titles that June.

I mean, even when Nintendo basically "gave up" on getting people into the Wii U, they still dangled carrots and announced games throughout years like 2015 and 2016. I realize that's a different era but you kinda have to go off of what exists further in the past when you're talking about a late in life console

 

[Magic-Man]

that would leave the holiday game with only a couple months from announcement to launch

We've seen weirder things lately. Metroid Prime Remastered got shadowdropped in the last Direct after all. Nobody saw that coming. Bayonetta Origins also had a pretty short announcement to release window, but that is third party so it's different. Something like 2D Mario explains itself.

Big hangup is that a two month marketing cycle is incredibly short for a holiday title. Not impossible or anything, but the only other time they’ve done it is COVID, and Age of Calamity wasn’t even published by them in Japan. Would they really sit on their big seller for that long?

Not to mention that any games from October or earlier would likely need to be announced in the Mini, and at that point you might as well toss in the holiday game + a 2024 teaser and make it a General.

In my opinion, October could be another port month. I think they're saving a lot for next year and the Switch 2. The first half of this year was crowded, but half of the games released were remasters. The second half will probably be the same way. We have Pikmin 4 in July, something new in November, and maybe a third new title in between. Fill in the rest with ports and DLC.

 

[Thunder84]

We've seen weirder things lately. Metroid Prime Remastered got shadowdropped in the last Direct after all. Nobody saw that coming. Bayonetta Origins also had a pretty short announcement to release window, but that is third party so it's different. Something like 2D Mario explains itself.


In my opinion, October could be another port month. I think they're saving a lot for next year and the Switch 2. The first half of this year was crowded, but half of the games released were remasters. The second half will probably be the same way. We have Pikmin 4 in July, something new in November, and maybe a third new title in between. Fill in the rest with ports and DLC.

There’s a difference between ports and remasters. Metroid Prime got the shadowdrop, yes, but that’s still the outlier. Remasters like Miitopia, Skyward Sword HD, and Return to Dream Land Deluxe all got the standard 3-5 month lead.

If they’re set on keeping 2024 under wraps for Switch 2, then I’d argue that you have it the wrong way around. Let June be the big General where they outline H2, and then hold a Mini in September to provide more information on the rest of the 2023 lineup, announce some DLC stuff, and fulfill 3rd party obligations. Fits much better than cramming everything into a 2 month window.

 

[Apopheniac]

2023:

NEW STUFF -
Fire Emblem Engage (Intelligent Systems)
Bayonetta Origins (Platinum)
Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (EPD)
Pikmin 4 (EPD)
Fashion Dreamer Style Savvy (Syn Sophia)
Detective Pikachu (Creatures Inc)
Animal Crossing: Party Plaza (NdCube)

OLD STUFF -
Kirby's Return to Dreamland Deluxe (Vanpool/HAL)
Metroid Prime HD (Retro Studios)
Advance Wars 1&2 Reboot Camp (WayForward)
F ZERO GX HD (Tantalus)

DLC STUFF -
Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Monolith Soft)
Mario Kart 8 DX (EPD)
Switch Sports (EPD)
Splatoon 3 (EPD)
Pokemon Scarlet/Violet (Game Freak)
Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope (Ubisoft Milan)
Fire Emblem Engage (Intelligent Systems)
Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (EPD)

• Disney Illusion Island [July 28]
• Samba de Amigo: Party Central [summer]
• Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective [June 30]
• Baten Kaitos I & II HD Remaster [summer]
• DECAPOLICE [2023]
• FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time [2023]
• Professor Layton and The New World of Steam [undated]

Just to give people an idea of potential Post-Zelda Nintendo projects:

• Advance Wars 1&2 Reboot Camp (confirmed, TBC)
• Pikmin 4 (confirmed, 2023) [mentioned above]
• Metroid Prime 4 (confirmed, TBC)
• Detective Pikachu (confirmed, TBC)
• EPD 8 3D action game (hiring call, October 2019)
• EPD 10 2D action game (hiring call, October 2019)
• EPD 8 2D action game (hiring call, August 2020)
• Nintendo x Bandai-Namco 3D action game remaster (hiring calls in 2022/23) [might be Baten Kaitos?]
• SynSophia fashion game (hiring call, December 2020) [mentioned above]
• Grezzo medieval fantasy game (hiring call, 2021; trademark 'Jet Dragon' registered in 2022)
• Finished but unannounced Retro Studios game (LinkedIn, September 2021; heavily rumoured to be Metroid Prime remastered)

Before we even get into the realm of speculation, rumours and guesswork, you can run up 11 titles all potentially heading to Switch and/or its successor. Throw on

• the recent F ZERO rumours [mentioned above]
• the older rumours of a Fire Emblem remake in the works to launch after the latest new titles
  
  as well as some guesswork -
  
  
• that studios like NdCube are perhaps due to launch new software on Switch;
• that Good-Feel probably have Nintendo-contracted software as well as their own self-published game in the works for Switch;
• that perhaps Monolith Soft have been working on an action game after all;
• that NST now have an unusually high number of game designers and might be working on their own project;

and so on.

Entirely possible some of these aren't for Switch, and very likely a number of these won't launch exclusively for Switch and are instead going to end up being cross-generation; but I don't really see the pace of releases on Switch slowing, even if we end up with more re-releases and spin-offs than 2022.

I realize this is a weird post but I thought this was easier than writing up "list of stuff we expect" from scratch

 

[Magic-Man]

There’s a difference between ports and remasters. Metroid Prime got the shadowdrop, yes, but that’s still the outlier. Remasters like Miitopia, Skyward Sword HD, and Return to Dream Land Deluxe all got the standard 3-5 month lead.

If they’re set on keeping 2024 under wraps for Switch 2, then I’d argue that you have it the wrong way around. Let June be the big General where they outline H2, and then hold a Mini in September to provide more information on the rest of the 2023 lineup, announce some DLC stuff, and fulfill 3rd party obligations. Fits much better than cramming everything into a 2 month window.

It's not really about keeping 2024 under wraps, it's more about the Switch not having as many new games because of the future console. If H2 is mostly ports, there's no reason to announce all of them early. We're already looking at two or three month marketing windows no matter what we get in June anyways.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Only two they had were Zelda (which obviously wasn’t coming out in 2020) and Bayonetta 3 (which wasn’t exactly a sales juggernaut, and arguably isn’t 1st party anyway). Not to mention Metroid Prime 4, which wouldn’t have been announced if it hadn’t been rebooted. I don’t think I’d really classify that as “a lot”. More, sure, but not significantly more to the point where I think it makes a realistic difference.

Maybe there is something different cooking at Nintendo that’s causing this sort of marketing, but I don’t think the situation is so extreme that it has to be something different. The New Horizons situation was similar enough that it’s entirely possible we get a standard or mini direct in June without really missing a beat.

You're forgetting about the pair of FDC remakes, Xenoblade DE, and Detective Pikachu 2 (which still hasn't resurfaced, lol). The English localization for the former wasn't announced yet, but the game had been announced in Japan. Prime 4 also absolutely still counts, as they're still leaning on that to have something perceived as a major release after Zelda.

It was way different than just having Pikmin 4 with a date and Prime 4 and Detective Pikachu 2 still floating in the ether.

 

[Instro]

I'm thinking Detective Pikachu 2 never got out of the planning stage after the film underperformed.

 

[goldrogerii]

I'm thinking Detective Pikachu 2 never got out of the planning stage after the film underperformed.

They released a recruitment interview with the lead background artist of Detective Pikachu 2 earlier this year. So it's definitely still in development.

背景アーティストとしてのさらなる高みへ | クリーチャーズな人々 | 株式会社クリーチャーズ採用情報

株式会社クリーチャーズ採用情報サイトの「背景アーティストとしてのさらなる高みへ」ページです。実際にクリーチャーズで働く様々な声を掲載しています。クリーチャーズは、ポケモン原作３社の１社であり、『ポケモンカードゲーム』の企画・制作、ビデオゲームソフト『ポケットモンスター』シリーズから派生するデジタルコンテンツの企画・開発、ポケモンの3Dモデリング・モーション制作を行っている、ものづくりの会社です。

recruit.creatures.co.jp

 

[Instro]

They released an recruitment interview with the lead background artist of Detective Pikachu 2 earlier this year.

背景アーティストとしてのさらなる高みへ | クリーチャーズな人々 | 株式会社クリーチャーズ採用情報

株式会社クリーチャーズ採用情報サイトの「背景アーティストとしてのさらなる高みへ」ページです。実際にクリーチャーズで働く様々な声を掲載しています。クリーチャーズは、ポケモン原作３社の１社であり、『ポケモンカードゲーム』の企画・制作、ビデオゲームソフト『ポケットモンスター』シリーズから派生するデジタルコンテンツの企画・開発、ポケモンの3Dモデリング・モーション制作を行っている、ものづくりの会社です。

recruit.creatures.co.jp

Ah ok. Must have just had some delays during COVID then.

 

[Pokemaniac]

I'm thinking Detective Pikachu 2 never got out of the planning stage after the film underperformed.

No, it was just announced super early just like the first game.

 

[Dark Cloud]

TOTK in May, then a General Direct is a great 2 month combo. June gives TOTK a month to breathe before Nintendo is ready to move on with their next big announcements for the rest of the year.