StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[D36]

And with that, I have bookended a page. I am Monado, I was here from the beginning and I shall proclaim the end.

 

[LukasManak22]

I mean, they could have worked around the delay, even if they're dealing with two different mediums; it would have been like BotW and the Switch, Pokemon's been doing it for ages.

[REDACTED] releasing outside of this calendar year would still require a margin of error on Nintendo's part. I might be coming off as a pest, but could you at least give me a good as to why this new device wouldn't make the holidays? I'm trying to wrap my head around why seemingly half the thread believes this without sufficient data.

No, they couldn't. These are completely different, I can't imagine Nintendo talking to Universal that they need to further delay Mario Movie because of game when Universal has another animated movie planned for Holidays (even made by Illumination) and the potential Mario game would still not release around this time as well, just before TotK. Mario Movie does not need game and new Mario game does not need the movie.

As for the hardware, it's still better to expect nothing but be pleasenty surprised in the end, if we heard a lot more things and reports by now I would really turn into 2023 mode more.

 

[Bnois]

And with that, I have bookended a page. I am Monado, I was here from the beginning and I shall proclaim the end.

Gurl if I didn’t finish Xeno 3 like 2 weeks ago I’d be mad right now. Specifically avoided spoilers before I’m finished with it

 

[D36]

No, they couldn't. These are completely different, I can't imagine Nintendo talking to Universal that they need to further delay Mario Movie because of game when Universal has another animated movie planned for Holidays (even made ny Illumination) and the potential Mario game would still not release around this time as well, just before TotK. Mario Movie does not need game and new Mario game does not need the movie.

As for the hardware, it's still better to expect nothing but be pleasenty surprised in the end, if we heard a lot more things and reports by now I would really turn into 2023 mode more.

I'm talking about them working around the delay so that synergy would be there, not to delay it entirely.

The issue is, we are leaning towards 2023 because of a deliberate lack of information in a time of declining Switch sales. Also, the about expectations is kind of moot at this point.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

That's it, no more Sonic for you.

SEGA did not chao this post

 

[D36]

Gurl if I didn’t finish Xeno 3 like 2 weeks ago I’d be mad right now. Specifically avoided spoilers before I’m finished with it

Whoops I was trying to get the image by itself and I still don't know how it works without needing to use Google Drive.

Speaking of Xenoblade, I wonder if the DLC will get a standalone release, like Torna.

 

[ShadowFox08]

They will all sell a few thousand units, maybe a few hundred thousand. Steam Deck is the big whale, but the market is awfully crowded now.
That said Switch always had to face the portable PC alternative. I recall some people making a big deal out of the GDP win way back in 2017.

It's interesting to look at but fundamentally, these are are just running PC games in a form factor that's 2-3x the size of an actual Switch. They aren't even competing in the same space. It gives never-Nintendo owners an excuse not to own a Switch though. I guess?

Looks like the size of the switch to me...

The only reasons for hardware releases outside of late in the year have been

1. Weren't going to have enough hardware to sell for the planned holiday launch
2. Software wasn't ready for a holiday launch

So late in the year seems more likely as they've had so many years to get ready for this (hence why I expect Fall 2024)

4. Nintendo doesn't think they need to release Switch 2 yet, because the current Switch is still selling a lot and meeting their standards, and they want to make as much profit on it as possible. They know that when Switch 2 gets announced, the demand for the switch 1 model will be down drastically (in addition to declining year-to-year sales).

As OldPuck said, Nintendo's in uncharted territory with the Switch. It's the only home console that has lasted this long without a successor being released, and it's doing well despite being in its 7th year compared to consoles from every other generation and console maker. It's already beating PS4 in lifetime sales, and it could potentially overtake PS2 and DS lifetime sales in its life.

The only thing we have going for a (late) 2023 release is the lack of software announcements for Q4 2024.. Just DLC so far (MK8D, Pokemon Scarlet/Violet and maybe TOTK). But they will obviously have most of their q4 software announced by Jun-August.

I don't even know what I would do if I was Nintendo, if my goal was to maximize Switch sales before releasing the successor. It might work better for them to announce Switch 2 in the Fall, and release it in early 2024 with a big game. But Nintendo would still need a big Switch game in Q4 2023 to drive Switch sales... Because Nintendo hasn't been in this situation before, it's a little hard to predict what they will do.

 

[boodream]

It didn’t? I just said it didn’t, you agreed with me, and now you’re saying it did again. Do you understand why talking to you about it seems to go in circles?

Nintendo announced an EPD developed game for 2022 at the 2021 February direct. Period. You keep moving the goal posts to make 2023 look like 2021 but it doesn’t. And if you slice the situation any finer, you may eventually be “right” but you’ll have rendered the example meaningless by caveats.

You can think it’s irrelevant that Nintendo has no games announced past the summer that isn’t Prime 4. A respectable opinion.

But saying “it’s precedented” isn’t factual. And saying “I’m ignoring Pokémon games because that’s not really Nintendo, and Triangle Strategy because that’s not EPD, and Splatoon because reasons” isn’t just inventing a fake example. It’s ignoring the forest for the trees

Put the February direct for 2021 against this years and they are nothing alike in terms of scheduling, ratio of first party/second party/3rd party announcements, or corporate positioning.

You're absolutely right: opinions can vary (and there's no reason to be annoyed about that), facts don't. For example, it's not an opinion to point out that Metroid Dread, Mario Party Superstars and WarioWare Get it Toghether had not been announced yet in April 2021. I don't particularly see the point of quoting my post ignoring the very simple sentence "I'm talking about Nintendo's games in the second half of this year". It is perhaps a little less vague than the random reasoning you've decided to attribute to me . But all this is not very important nor very constructive, I agree and personally I will stop here.

 

[D36]

Looks like the size of the switch to me...

4. Nintendo doesn't think they need to release Switch 2 yet, because the current Switch is still selling a lot and meeting their standards, and they want to make as much profit on it as possible. They know that when Switch 2 gets announced, the demand for the switch 1 model will be down drastically (in addition to declining year-to-year sales).

As OldPuck said, Nintendo's in uncharted territory with the Switch. It's the only home console that has lasted this long without a successor being released, and it's doing well despite being in its 7th year compared to consoles from every other generation and console maker. It's already beating PS4 in lifetime sales, and it could potentially overtake PS2 and DS lifetime sales in its life.

The only thing we have going for a (late) 2023 release is the lack of software announcements for Q4 2024.. Just DLC so far (MK8D, Pokemon Scarlet/Violet and maybe TOTK). But they will obviously have most of their q4 software announced by Jun-August.

I don't even know what I would do if I was Nintendo, if my goal was to maximize Switch sales before releasing the successor. It might work better for them to announce Switch 2 in the Fall, and release it in early 2024 with a big game. But Nintendo would still need a big Switch game in Q4 2023 to drive Switch sales... Because Nintendo hasn't been in this situation before, it's a little hard to predict what they will do.

I think you can have the best of both worlds by releasing at the start of the decline (2023), while releasing cross-gen titles for at least two years. The early adopters are more than likely going to be enthusiasts and the range of demographics will expand as time goes on, especially with releases like Pokemon to drive up sales. Nintendo wants a smooth transition, so this might be what plays out.

 

[D36]

This is the most that I've posted in a single day. I'm starting to feel like a Famiboards regular, now.

To whoever did this, when you put the UI back to normal, PUHLEASE keep the Chao reaction! Pleeaaassssee

This is now my third most Yeah'd (or in this case, Chao'd) post on this forum. I expect it to overtake my 2-part gigapost before the weekend is over.

Edit: It is now my most Chao'd post. VIVA LA CHAO!!!!!

But seriously, tho, make the Chao reaction permanent, this is beyond cute and too good to just be an April Fool's joke!

 

[Cuzizkool]

In the spirit of April Fools, this made me chuckle:



Gotta work the U in there!

 

[Pokemaniac]

You're absolutely right: opinions can vary (and there's no reason to be annoyed about that), facts don't. For example, it's not an opinion to point out that Metroid Dread, Mario Party Superstars and WarioWare Get it Toghether had not been announced yet in April 2021. I don't particularly see the point of quoting my post ignoring the very simple sentence "I'm talking about Nintendo's games in the second half of this year". It is perhaps a little less vague than the random reasoning you've decided to attribute to me . But all this is not very important nor very constructive, I agree and personally I will stop here.

Nintendo announcing H2 games in their summer presentation is not unusual. What is unusual, however, is going into said presentation without anything announced beyond July. It's typical for Nintendo to keep a "buffer" of upcoming titles to maintain confidence in the longer term prospects of their system, and this is the smallest that's gotten since early in the pandemic. The exact meaning of that is up for debate, but it's not business as usual.

 

[Dekuman]

Looks like the size of the switch to me...

from the promo videos, its slightly wider, like an XL Switch but also taller and at least twice as thick.

 

[D36]

In the spirit of April Fools, this made me chuckle:



Gotta work the U in there!

Thanks, I hate it

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Nintendo announcing H2 games in their summer presentation is not unusual. What is unusual, however, is going into said presentation without anything announced beyond July. It's typical for Nintendo to keep a "buffer" of upcoming titles to maintain confidence in the longer term prospects of their system, and this is the smallest that's gotten since early in the pandemic. The exact meaning of that is up for debate, but it's not business as usual.

I mean, they do have a decent bit of DLC announced, but they have no physical presence, yes.

 

[BDGAME]

Sheesh. Rain on my parade some more. :-(

Sorry dude. I just don't want a new device with less modes than the first one. So, I try to make a Mock show a device with more and new modes. Now you can rain on my parade too.

 

[D36]

Sorry dude. I just don't want a new device with less modes than the first one. So, I try to make a Mock show a device with more and new modes. Now you can rain on my parade too.

This looks awesome! I wonder if the technology is there to make this happen.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Looks like the size of the switch to me...

4. Nintendo doesn't think they need to release Switch 2 yet, because the current Switch is still selling a lot and meeting their standards, and they want to make as much profit on it as possible. They know that when Switch 2 gets announced, the demand for the switch 1 model will be down drastically (in addition to declining year-to-year sales).

As OldPuck said, Nintendo's in uncharted territory with the Switch. It's the only home console that has lasted this long without a successor being released, and it's doing well despite being in its 7th year compared to consoles from every other generation and console maker. It's already beating PS4 in lifetime sales, and it could potentially overtake PS2 and DS lifetime sales in its life.

The only thing we have going for a (late) 2023 release is the lack of software announcements for Q4 2024.. Just DLC so far (MK8D, Pokemon Scarlet/Violet and maybe TOTK). But they will obviously have most of their q4 software announced by Jun-August.

I don't even know what I would do if I was Nintendo, if my goal was to maximize Switch sales before releasing the successor. It might work better for them to announce Switch 2 in the Fall, and release it in early 2024 with a big game. But Nintendo would still need a big Switch game in Q4 2023 to drive Switch sales... Because Nintendo hasn't been in this situation before, it's a little hard to predict what they will do.

I think trading the holiday for a Drake announcement is the best move. the people who'd buy a switch this holiday are probably the same people who wouldn't jump in at a more expensive system, especially early. a system launch at a higher price might reap more rewards than a 7 holiday season old system

 

[Chun]

Nintendo announcing H2 games in their summer presentation is not unusual. What is unusual, however, is going into said presentation without anything announced beyond July. It's typical for Nintendo to keep a "buffer" of upcoming titles to maintain confidence in the longer term prospects of their system, and this is the smallest that's gotten since early in the pandemic. The exact meaning of that is up for debate, but it's not business as usual.

Metroid Prime 4? I know Nate has been speculating that's late this year. Combine it with a major Pokémon expansion and whatever else they have cooked up first or third party I think it is business as usual

 

[Pokemaniac]

Metroid Prime 4? I know Nate has been speculating that's late this year. Combine it with a major Pokémon expansion and whatever else they have cooked up first or third party I think it is business as usual

It's not a bad guess that Metroid Prime 4 could launch this year, but if so, it's quite strange that Nintendo didn't say anything about it, especially when they did announce Prime Remastered. In 2022, we already had release windows for Splatoon and Bayonetta, the two longer term announcements that released in the second half, by now.

DLC is something, but it typically doesn't occupy a "slot" on Nintendo's release calendar unless it's getting a standalone release, even for Pokémon.

 

[theguy]

youwannaknowthedefinitionofinsanity.gif

this is a joke and this thread is one of the best things on the internet.

 

[Chun]

It's not a bad guess that Metroid Prime 4 could launch this year, but if so, it's quite strange that Nintendo didn't say anything about it, especially when they did announce Prime Remastered. In 2022, we already had release windows for Splatoon and Bayonetta, the two longer term announcements that released in the second half, by now.

DLC is something, but it typically doesn't occupy a "slot" on Nintendo's release calendar unless it's getting a standalone release, even for Pokémon.

I think Prime 4 is a special case where they don't want to date it until they are 100% sure it hits after all this time and how sorry they were about the dev reset announcement and I do not blame them. Releasing PR seems like a good indication it's coming though esp if it was rated last summer and they've been waiting just why now?

Also if we're talking DLC slots and their relevance, we're still due for Mario Kart 8 DLC through December and I personally do not see any world where a successor blowout doesn't include MK9. Doesn't feel likely that they'll announce the next mainline mario kart game we've waited nearly a decade for while they're still selling expansion packs and subscriptions on this booster course pack.

I don't think Holiday 2024 is out of the question personally it's what I'm expecting for these reasons^

 

[Pokemaniac]

I think Prime 4 is a special case where they don't want to date it until they are 100% sure it hits after all this time and how sorry they were about the dev reset announcement and I do not blame them. Releasing PR seems like a good indication it's coming though esp if it was rated last summer and they've been waiting just why now?

Also if we're talking DLC slots and their relevance, we're still due for Mario Kart 8 DLC through December and I personally do not see any world where a successor blowout doesn't include MK9. Doesn't feel likely that they'll announce the next mainline mario kart game we've waited nearly a decade for while they're still selling expansion packs and subscriptions on this booster course pack.

I don't think Holiday 2024 is out of the question personally it's what I'm expecting for these reasons^

Perhaps there's some special situation with Prime 4, but that's still something out of the ordinary.

As for Mario Kart, I don't get where the idea that Mario Kart is mandatory for showing off a new console is coming from. Sometimes it lands in the launch window, sometimes not. It's generally on the earlier side, but waiting until year 2 is hardly unusual.

 

[Chun]

Perhaps there's some special situation with Prime 4, but that's still something out of the ordinary.

As for Mario Kart, I don't get where the idea that Mario Kart is mandatory for showing off a new console is coming from. Sometimes it lands in the launch window, sometimes not. It's generally on the earlier side, but waiting until year 2 is hardly unusual.

I think the idea comes from MK being the most successful individual title they could use to push people to the new console with. It does far better than 3D Mario, we're overdue for the next kart, and if the successor is another switch, in a post wii to wii u world*, it helps avoid confusion by showing consumers "hey that mario kart you love and have been playing for 10 years? Next one is only available on this hardware" can't really make the generational jump more clear than that.

To many, myself included, it makes way more sense to push a new system out with the successor to MK8 than the successor to SMO.

*Edit

 

[D36]

I was half joking when I said this earlier today, but maybe we should bet our Famicoins on when the [REDACTED] is gonna launch. It should alleviate things while we wait until whenever this God-forsaken toaster is announced.

Wait a minute...... can you bet your Famicoins like that? I know you can spend them on colors and very rarely are there posts that are gated by them, but can you use them for wagers?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

The closest Mario kart has been to the launch of a new system was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the switch, every other time the game has launched, it was not near the launch at all. There’s a serious level of revisionism where people think that Mario kart launches at the very beginning of the life of a system.

It’s a massive system seller, but you don’t play all your cards at the start, you play them correctly and spread apart.

 

[D36]

I think the idea comes from MK being the most successful individual title they could use to push people to the new console with. It does far better than 3D Mario, we're overdue for the next kart, and if the successor is another switch, it helps avoid confusion by showing consumers "hey that mario kart you love and have been playing for 10 years? Next one is only available on this hardware" can't really make the generational jump more clear than that.

To many, myself included, it makes way more sense to push a new system out with the successor to MK8 than the successor to SMO.

I feel like MK will release at either holiday next year or the year after. Probably the former, as that would be right off the heels of the Booster Course Pass.

 

[majimazio]

I believe Metroid Prime 4 and Monolith Soft's action game (new IP?) are cross-gen.
Monolith's action game may be exclusive to [REDACTED] as they have not specified the platform.
I expect MK9 to be released before pokemon gen10.

 

[Chun]

The closest Mario kart has been to the launch of a new system was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the switch, every other time the game has launched, it was not near the launch at all. There’s a serious level of revisionism where people think that Mario kart launches at the very beginning of the life of a system.

It’s a massive system seller, but you don’t play all your cards at the start, you play them correctly and spread apart.

Thats fair but I think you can't write off the fact that MK8D played a part in the switch becoming the success it is, we are also the longest we've been without a new original console mario kart game and as far as I know we have no idea what that core team is working on? It doesn't feel out of the question that it could be a vital part of the successor launch window.

 

[D36]

The closest Mario kart has been to the launch of a new system was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the switch, every other time the game has launched, it was not near the launch at all. There’s a serious level of revisionism where people think that Mario kart launches at the very beginning of the life of a system.

It’s a massive system seller, but you don’t play all your cards at the start, you play them correctly and spread apart.

True, but they're usually very close, some of them launch within the first year of their system's life, like Super Circuit and 7.

 

[Erathix]

I was half joking when I said this earlier today, but maybe we should bet our Famicoins on when the [REDACTED] is gonna launch. It should alleviate things while we wait until whenever this God-forsaken toaster is announced.

Wait a minute...... can you bet your Famicoins like that? I know you can spend them on colors and very rarely are there posts that are gated by them, but can you use them for wagers?

Be careful, online gambling is an automatic M rating in my country now. You don't want innocent, old Famiboards here becoming M-Rated now do you? What with your FamiCoin casinos with your FamiCoin betting, next thing you know we'll be laundering with FamiCoins.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Thats fair but I think you can't write off the fact that MK8D played a part in the switch becoming the success it is, we are also the longest we've been without a new original console mario kart game and as far as I know we have no idea what that core team is working on? It doesn't feel out of the question that it could be a vital part of the successor launch window.

I can write it off because Mario kart does not bring nothing new that actually shakes up or has been something they want to use it as a showcase for a new platform. Mario kart is a safe option because it’s tried and true, not because it’s something new and different. It’s why it’s a repeat purchase gen after gen.

If Nintendo uses Mario kart to become an open world Racing game with full online interactivity that you can communicate with other players, turn it into something else that reinvents itself and truly showcases the new console and its gimmick that’s one thing. But exactly how likely do you actually think Nintendo is going to do something that could potentially alienate the millions of Mario kart fans that actually buy the system for Mario kart?

I just don’t see Mario kart as something that is going to suddenly have its wheel reinvented all of a sudden because it makes no sense to considering the history of the series and how safe of a card it is in Nintendo’s deck. Nintendo has had multiple occasions of using Mario kart to make stellar use of the gimmick, but the thing is Mario kart has not been used to showcase the new hardware and its capabilities like a game that is a demo.

 

[Cybergatuno]

IMO, and assuming BC, the next Mario Kart would have to come with an amazing new gimmick, or even a few of those, to be justifiable, when 8 Deluxe has a bunch of tracks, lots of characters and is already amazing. This isn't a story-driven single-player hit that people buy all instalments of, such as Zelda or Mario. Mario Kart 8 is already the go-to for new Switch owners. Some current owners may buy the new one but new owners won't buy the previous. I think Nintendo would be eating their own sales more than anything.

There are a lot of franchises that deserve new games. I'm still waiting for Star Fox to get a Breath of the Wild/Odyssey treatment. I consider we are currently very well served with Mario Kart.

 

[Chun]

I can write it off because Mario kart does not bring nothing new that actually shakes up or has been something they want to use it as a showcase for a new platform.

There are a lot of franchises that deserve new games. I'm still waiting for Star Fox to get a Breath of the Wild/Odyssey treatment. I consider we are currently very well served with Mario Kart.

Both of these may be true but that doesn't change the fact that MK still sells stupidly well, is overdue for a true sequel, and pushes hardware sales.

If for next holiday they launch a system that has Mario Kart 9 or whatever as the Marquee title that can not be played on the current switch, that moves units. As much as I would love for the next system to be launched with a new 3D Mario or a Donkey Kong or a new Fire Emblem, none of those are a safe bet to migrate a massive audience like Kart is. They desperately want to avoid the wii to wii u transition and if the next hardware is pretty similar, having the sequel to one of the best selling games of all time only playable on that is a clear enough distinction. Just makes sense to me.

 

[Discostew]

In the spirit of April Fools, this made me chuckle:



Gotta work the U in there!

Honestly, any "dual-screen" proposed form now are pretty much fake and unlikely to happen with Nintendo. It was one thing back in the 3/DS days where it was useful to move HUD elements off the main screen and be big enough for clarity because of the low resolution, but with higher resolution screens? It's not really needed anymore.

 

[D36]

I can write it off because Mario kart does not bring nothing new that actually shakes up or has been something they want to use it as a showcase for a new platform. Mario kart is a safe option because it’s tried and true, not because it’s something new and different. It’s why it’s a repeat purchase gen after gen.

If Nintendo uses Mario kart to become an open world Racing game with full online interactivity that you can communicate with other players, turn it into something else that reinvents itself and truly showcases the new console and its gimmick that’s one thing. But exactly how likely do you actually think Nintendo is going to do something that could potentially alienate the millions of Mario kart fans that actually buy the system for Mario kart?

I just don’t see Mario kart as something that is going to suddenly have its wheel reinvented all of a sudden because it makes no sense to considering the history of the series and how safe of a card it is in Nintendo’s deck. Nintendo has had multiple occasions of using Mario kart to make stellar use of the gimmick, but the thing is Mario kart has not been used to showcase the new hardware and its capabilities like a game that is a demo.

To be fair, with MK8 in the state that it is, something's gotta be shaken up, right? A part of me wants to say "just do Nintendo Kart, lol", but I don't think that would be enough, well for little Timmy and his family, maybe, but still. Nintendo might be seriously considering changing things up for once, even if the average consumer isn't gonna care; something that would slightly justify its existence, but not too alienating to the masses. It's something I've also felt with Smash; like where do you go after "EVERYONE IS HERE, EVEN SORA FROM KINGDOM FUCKING HEARTS"? I'd say to just reboot it, but still.

 

[D36]

Be careful, online gambling is an automatic M rating in my country now. You don't want innocent, old Famiboards here becoming M-Rated now do you? What with your FamiCoin casinos with your FamiCoin betting, next thing you know we'll be laundering with FamiCoins.

Laundering with fake money..... Sounds like an Ed, Edd, n Eddy episode.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Both of these may be true but that doesn't change the fact that MK still sells stupidly well, is overdue for a true sequel, and pushes hardware sales.

If for next holiday they launch a system that has Mario Kart 9 or whatever as the Marquee title that can not be played on the current switch, that moves units. As much as I would love for the next system to be launched with a new 3D Mario or a Donkey Kong or a new Fire Emblem, none of those are a safe bet to migrate a massive audience like Kart is. They desperately want to avoid the wii to wii u transition and if the next hardware is pretty similar, having the sequel to one of the best selling games of all time only playable on that is a clear enough distinction. Just makes sense to me.

Mario Kart has been gone because the team has been tied up in Nintendo's failed mobile initiative since they wrapped up ARMS years ago. This is specifically why 8 Deluxe is suddenly getting DLC again, to salvage and preserve that work. It's really not clear that they can produce a new original game particularly soon given this context.

Mario Kart sells a lot, but it's more of an evergreen title than something that would really make a big splash at launch. Nintendo needs to bring out a new one eventually, but it's far from critical for launch.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

To further expand on my previous points, Nintendo is only limited to a single platform now. They cannot risk playing their best card at the very beginning and not using that card as a back up if their initial cars do not work.

Nintendo is at the mercy of how flexible they are at adapting to the situation that is presented in front of them. If they are inflexible, that brings an issue on their own hand And having games like Pokémon, Mario Kart, and Animal Crossing are excellent backups to their deck.

3D Mario, 3D Zelda, a new IP, Super Smash, etc are “experimental” (used in quotes) have a more critical appeal to the mass audience.



I’m aware that a new one is overdue, considering that the last one was almost 11 years ago, but I’m also of the opinion that the earliest a new Mario kart makes sense is actually for holiday end of fiscal year 2024, or 2024. Either a year or 6 months after the launch of the new system.


Because you never know how the public would react… if the price is too much or the gimmick is too uninteresting… could get a 3DS situation.


and we don’t want that to happen.

Both of these may be true but that doesn't change the fact that MK still sells stupidly well, is overdue for a true sequel, and pushes hardware sales.

If for next holiday they launch a system that has Mario Kart 9 or whatever as the Marquee title that can not be played on the current switch, that moves units. As much as I would love for the next system to be launched with a new 3D Mario or a Donkey Kong or a new Fire Emblem, none of those are a safe bet to migrate a massive audience like Kart is. They desperately want to avoid the wii to wii u transition and if the next hardware is pretty similar, having the sequel to one of the best selling games of all time only playable on that is a clear enough distinction. Just makes sense to me.

 

[Cybergatuno]

Both of these may be true but that doesn't change the fact that MK still sells stupidly well, is overdue for a true sequel, and pushes hardware sales.

If for next holiday they launch a system that has Mario Kart 9 or whatever as the Marquee title that can not be played on the current switch, that moves units. As much as I would love for the next system to be launched with a new 3D Mario or a Donkey Kong or a new Fire Emblem, none of those are a safe bet to migrate a massive audience like Kart is. They desperately want to avoid the wii to wii u transition and if the next hardware is pretty similar, having the sequel to one of the best selling games of all time only playable on that is a clear enough distinction. Just makes sense to me.

I agree IF they nail it.

Mario Kart is more akin to FIFA or Maiden, without the roster update. When a new one comes out, the previous one stops selling outright. All it does is fragment online lobbies. If Mario Kart 9 comes out and it looks better, has 12 tracks and pretty much the same gameplay, I wouldn't buy it even if it comes out on the current Switch, let alone buy a new system for it.

Just more of the same won't cut it, specially when I have 8 + DLC. They would have to really reinvent it or add some new amazing ideas to make it compelling.

If Mario Kart 9 is open-world, similar to Forza Horizon, has a lengthy story-mode, upgrades, destructible environments, vehicle damage and other great mechanics I can't think of, YEAH, I would buy that, maybe even a new system too. They may alienate hardcore fans but they're offering something new.

Otherwise, like I said, meh, it's a new FIFA with a little better graphics but without the roster update. They would shoot themselves in the foot.

 

[D36]

Mario Kart has been gone because the team has been tied up in Nintendo's failed mobile initiative since they wrapped up ARMS years ago. This is specifically why 8 Deluxe is suddenly getting DLC again, to salvage and preserve that work. It's really not clear that they can produce a new original game particularly soon given this context.

Mario Kart sells a lot, but it's more of an evergreen title than something that would really make a big splash at launch. Nintendo needs to bring out a new one eventually, but it's far from critical for launch.

God, was Fire Emblem Heroes the only success from that initiative? Cuz that's crazy when even the Mario mobile games can't seem to keep up. Heroes and MK Tour are the only ones left and Heroes might just outlive Tour, at this rate.

 

[Deleted member 887]

I’m

Metroid Prime 4? I know Nate has been speculating that's late this year. Combine it with a major Pokémon expansion and whatever else they have cooked up first or third party I think it is business as usual

No. Which is not to say that wouldn’t be a “normal” year, but what’s unusual isn’t the titles we’re getting in the future, because we have no idea what they are, and that is the unusual part.

I'm not trying to be hostile, I see your point. I just think we've lost the thread a little bit - the interesting thing isn't 'what will Nintendo's H2 2023 look like' but 'why don't we know jack shit about Nintendo's future.'

Nintendo has never gone this long without a hardware revision, they've never had so few software titles announced, and such a hard cut-off If you are in the 7th year of a system, and you intend to support it for 18 more months, and you've got a regular cadence of releases to come, then you announce some in order to establish to third parties, to customers, to distributors, and to investors that you intend to support your platform for an extended period of time.

Even if we have a "totally normal" H2, Nintendo has chose to market that H2, and their platform as a whole, in a totally unprecedented way. There are three possibilities - 1) H2 has something coming that needs an alternate marketing strategy, 2) something happened and Nintendo isn't sure what kind of H2 they will have, and are having to hedge, or 3) it's a normal year but they've chosen a new marketing strategy which is unusually risky at a time when questions about the platform's health are sounding more and more legitimate.

I think that 1 or 2 are totally possible, and that "something" could be any number of things, not just hardware. But folks saying they expect a "normal" year and don't see what the fuss is about seem to be pointing at 3, and that's bonkers to me.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

To be fair, with MK8 in the state that it is, something's gotta be shaken up, right? A part of me wants to say "just do Nintendo Kart, lol", but I don't think that would be enough, well for little Timmy and his family, maybe, but still. Nintendo might be seriously considering changing things up for once, even if the average consumer isn't gonna care; something that would slightly justify its existence, but not too alienating to the masses. It's something I've also felt with Smash; like where do you go after "EVERYONE IS HERE, EVEN SORA FROM KINGDOM FUCKING HEARTS"? I'd say to just reboot it, but still.

I find that with Nintendo Kart or smash kart or whatever people call it these days it puts them in a sticky situation with licensing hell

Lest not pretend Smash Bros is in a safe space to wander free! It is royalty and licensing hell!!!

 

[D36]

I find that with Nintendo Kart or smash kart or whatever people call it these days it puts them in a sticky situation with licensing hell

Lest not pretend Smash Bros is in a safe space to wander free! It is royalty and licensing hell!!!

I probably should have mentioned that there wouldn't be a huge emphasis on guest characters, hence why I expect the next Smash to be a hard reboot.

 

[LiC]

Also if we're talking DLC slots and their relevance, we're still due for Mario Kart 8 DLC through December and I personally do not see any world where a successor blowout doesn't include MK9. Doesn't feel likely that they'll announce the next mainline mario kart game we've waited nearly a decade for while they're still selling expansion packs and subscriptions on this booster course pack.

If the window for hardware is tied to the next Mario Kart, I hope you're ready to wait until 2026 for new hardware, because that game is very likely not in development right now.

 

[Procheno]

I think one thing a lot of people tend to gloss over when it comes to Nintendo's 2023 lineup debate is the fact that Nintendo intentionally front-loaded 80% of their games into the 1st half of this year minus Pikmin 4 which is in mid July aka might as well have been H1. If they were "short on software for this year/holiday season", why in the world would they dump every single game of theirs in the first 3-5 months?

Fire Emblem Engage (And every single one of its DLCs within 3 months)
Metroid Prime Remastered (A big flag as they could have easily held it to later this year instead of placing it dead squat within weeks of Fire Emblem and Kirby)
Kirby Return to Dreamland HD
Bayonetta Origins
Advance Wars 1+2 Reboot Camp (Another game they could have left for later this year instead of squeezing it into a perfectly valid H1)
Zelda Tears of the Kingdom
+
Octopath Traveler 2 for third party

All that leaves is:
Pikmin 4 in mid July
Baten Kaitos I + II HD (A small weight HD port release) in "summer" which could be June or July for all we know
Potential Xenoblade 3 stand alone expansion ala Torna the Golden Country (Big to me but small weight for sales)
Pokemon DLC
Splatoon Wave 2 DLC
The last of Mario Kart 8's DLC

Selling nothing but DLC and AA/small port releases for your H2 lineup is not a strategy we know Nintendo would be comfortable with, even if they did have MP4 lined up. You can't sell hardware on DLC of old games from previous years

 

[Chun]

I’m

No. Which is not to say that wouldn’t be a “normal” year, but what’s unusual isn’t the titles we’re getting in the future, because we have no idea what they are, and that is the unusual part.

I'm not trying to be hostile, I see your point. I just think we've lost the thread a little bit - the interesting thing isn't 'what will Nintendo's H2 2023 look like' but 'why don't we know jack shit about Nintendo's future.'

Nintendo has never gone this long without a hardware revision, they've never had so few software titles announced, and such a hard cut-off If you are in the 7th year of a system, and you intend to support it for 18 more months, and you've got a regular cadence of releases to come, then you announce some in order to establish to third parties, to customers, to distributors, and to investors that you intend to support your platform for an extended period of time.

Even if we have a "totally normal" H2, Nintendo has chose to market that H2, and their platform as a whole, in a totally unprecedented way. There are three possibilities - 1) H2 has something coming that needs an alternate marketing strategy, 2) something happened and Nintendo isn't sure what kind of H2 they will have, and are having to hedge, or 3) it's a normal year but they've chosen a new marketing strategy which is unusually risky at a time when questions about the platform's health are sounding more and more legitimate.

I think that 1 or 2 are totally possible, and that "something" could be any number of things, not just hardware. But folks saying they expect a "normal" year and don't see what the fuss is about seem to be pointing at 3, and that's bonkers to me.

Fair enough.

Like I mentioned, imo I believe this scenario you're laying out be tied up in Metroid Prime 4 and the pressure to nail that one. If that's releasing this fall I imagine they aren't releasing it alongside another major 1st party title. Metroid is more popular than ever right now and if there was ever a chance for it to be huge it's here.

For that reason, to me it makes sense that theres no word on H2 from them yet because theres nothing to say that we don't already know. We know Prime 4 exists, and again in this hypothetical, there is nothing else to announce for H2 beyond the already announced DLC.

As far as why we haven't seen it yet, well I would imagine it's due Zelda being out soon and them waiting to give Metroid a proper spotlight to own the 2nd half of the year.

Apologies for the hypotheticals, but I think its misguided to act as if an empty H2 is truly empty and therefore indicative of the successor when we know MP4 is still an announced Switch title, we just got prime remastered for a potential ramp up, and there is some smoke on it hitting by the end of CY2023.

 

[ShaunSwitch]

I believe H2 2023 is likely the time a new switch console will release and this is the reason we know little about upcoming switch games. We talk about maintaining support for the original switch but I think this support will be limited hence H2 being a mystery.

To really sell the difference between the new and old system and hit home the fact the [REDACTED] needs to land two game releases.

The first is a must have title in a really popular franchise, this one is obviously 3D Mario, but I don't think this will distinguish [REDACTED] as I believe they will release it for the switch also off the back of the Mario movie.

The second is a graphical showpiece that is exclusive to drake. I don't think this is prime 4 as its been promised for switch for so long it would not be a good move to not release for switch. As some others have said the rumoured new monolith IP could be a good candidate, maybe with a gritty, realistic looking aesthetic, but I've had an idea, although an unlikely one, that Nintendo could take a dormant IP and completely reinvent it for [REDACTED]. I think something like a completely open universe star fox game with some light RT effects could be mind blowing. Maybe something akin to starlink battle for atlus but with less Ubisoft feeling filler content in the universe and a more engaging open world like BOTW.

I don't think there's just one of these showpiece titles either that will be exclusive, I think Nintendo have a few ready for H2 hence the quiet. Sure third parties can fill the gap but these are all games many people will have played already on other platforms so I think Nintendo needs some [REDACTED] exclusives prepped for release, hence not talking about H2 games now.

 

[Dakhil]

It's orin agx, but it does not work due to the incompatible board
It is now just a "figure" for viewing only

Translation by lieeiusex.

 

[TomNookYankees]

IMO, and assuming BC, the next Mario Kart would have to come with an amazing new gimmick, or even a few of those, to be justifiable, when 8 Deluxe has a bunch of tracks, lots of characters and is already amazing. This isn't a story-driven single-player hit that people buy all instalments of, such as Zelda or Mario. Mario Kart 8 is already the go-to for new Switch owners. Some current owners may buy the new one but new owners won't buy the previous. I think Nintendo would be eating their own sales more than anything.

There are a lot of franchises that deserve new games. I'm still waiting for Star Fox to get a Breath of the Wild/Odyssey treatment. I consider we are currently very well served with Mario Kart.

This is why I'm leaning towards Nintendo just doing a next gen patch for MK8DX and announcing a second boost course pass. It's not like they are showing signs of abandoning Mario Kart Tour any time soon and part of the benefit of MK8DX DLC has been that it lets them make tracks to be used in both games and there's still 40+ tracks from previous games they can use for second DLC.