StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[chocolate_supra]

Don't blame sleep deprivation for that. We have calendar apps on our phones.

Maybe he was too sleep-deprived to look at the calendar app on his phone

 

[TheSentry]

I’m thinking when Nintendo launches the Switch 2, they’re still going to have some cross-gen games. And I think they’re still going to try to sell Switch 1s to late adopters, which means they’ll probably drop the price. They typically do this.

I’m just guessing here but I could see them dropping the price of all the models:

• Lite: $100
• Standard: $200
• OLED: $250

And then launching the Switch 2 at like $350 or even $400. I don’t see Nintendo going below that in our current world.

 

[Concernt]

I’m thinking when Nintendo launches the Switch 2, they’re still going to have some cross-gen games. And I think they’re still going to try to sell Switch 1s to late adopters, which means they’ll probably drop the price. They typically do this.

I’m just guessing here but I could see them dropping the price of all the models:

• Lite: $100
• Standard: $200
• OLED: $250

And then launching the Switch 2 at like $350 or even $400. I don’t see Nintendo going below that in our current world.

The standard will almost certainly be gone before the next gen launches. It's not just a case of losing its market position as the OLED is pushed to the mid tier, it's a simple matter of logistics and availability. The OLED Model uses an older processor compared to its contemporaries but us otherwise a modern device in the way it's designed and the chips it uses. The V2 is very much stuck with a leg in 2017 and that means that when Nintendo runs out of stockpile to manufacture it, it's not that they'd have to slow manufacturing, it would become impossible to manufacture without a redesign. Only that redesign has already been done, and it's called the OLED Model.

As such, I expect the pricing situation to change to:

Lite - 200$
OLED - 300$
Super - 400$

When we account for inflation, 300 dollars in 2017 is 370 dollars now, so a 30 dollar increase isn't that severe, and it's clear from OLED Model sales in Europe (where it launched at over 400USD equivalent), PS5 and Xbox Series X successes that consumers aren't so price sensitive as to make 399$ a no-go zone for Nintendo.

(Also, a possible 99.99$ Nintendo Switch TV Box in early or late 2024 to milk TX1+ for all it's worth.)

 

[Truno]

So I've been thinking, and Nintendo really needs to do these things to guarantee the Switch 2's success:

1) Shadow-drop it. People loved Hi-Fi Rush and Metroid Prime Remastered being shadow-dropped, so why not do it for a console? To keep from leaks they need to make sure not to tell anyone, not even publishers and retailers: the surprise is everything.
2) Price it $100 more than the Steam Deck. More profits and it's Nintendo, after all. People will be all over it. They love Mario!
3) Don't release a mainline Mario game for it.
4) Focus hard on 2D games, designing the entire system around making sure they look the best. 3D games aren't the future nor will they ever be.
5) Call it the Nintendo Uranus

What does everyone think? Personally, in these turbulent times, the above will really cement Nintendo as a major platform holder for many years to come.

Imo the real key to success is the drip-feed DLC approach for all of their marquee titles. Imagine if TotK started off with 2 Sky Islands but they added 1 new one every 3-4 months? I think this would really propel sales

 

[Erathix]

Ooooo, I am loving this little SegaBoards transmog we've got going on here. We've got Chaos, mini Mega-Drive Sonic, classic grid patterns, terrible font.

Good ol' Sega.

 

[Zedark]

I, for one, am too old for such sudden changes in the website layout. Get off my lawn!

Spoiler

just kidding, very fun idea. I did jump a little when my phone unexpectedly yelled 'Chao!' at me, though.

 

[Zedark]

Imo the real key to success is the drip-feed DLC approach for all of their marquee titles. Imagine if TotK started off with 2 Sky Islands but they added 1 new one every 3-4 months? I think this would really propel sales

 

[arsen]

if you want the old style back, scroll to bottom and click on the "Sega" text that has the brush -> light mode

 

[D36]

They are announcing their games when they are ready. What's the reason to announce anything else in that Direct when TotK was launching just a 3 months from that point. Isn't it better to announce your Holiday game after TotK is out? Later in June for a October/November release? In 2021 they announced Metroid Dread and Mario Party at E3. In 2013, they announced Super Mario 3D World at E3 (altough it was mentioned earlier for few seconds that new 3D Mario would come later that year). In 2014 they announced Captain Toad at E3 for release later in that year, the same with TriForce Heroes in 2015 and this extends. 2022 was different since they had announced all Holiday titles already either in previous year or earlier in the year (Pokemon, Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, Mario Rabbids 2 etc.). This also happened in different years. There isn't a set pattern that they need to announce Holiday titles earlier in the year, they will announce them based on their marketing timing and schedule. Right now am operating in a scenario that they have full General Direct and in it, they will show new 2D Mario for release later in the year (roughly 4+ months from reveal to release, the same that NSMUDX and Super Mario Maker 2 had). They will probably have some smaller stuff for Holidays too. The lineup that Nintendo has for this year, with TotK included is something other could only dream of when system is old as it is and 2D Mario is perfect de ja vu title for this Switch. Then later in this FY (by the end of March 2024) we will get Switch 2.

We've definitely had more 2H titles announced earlier in the year than you're implying,as well as had information on them even earlier, especially in the Switch era.

2017: Super Mario Odyssey (October) Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (December) Both announced during the January Presentation

2018: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (December) announced during the March Direct

2019: Luigi's Mansion 3 (October) announced a year in advance during the September Direct
Pokemon Sword and Shield (November) announced during the February Pokemon Direct

2020 was 2020, but it seems like Nintendo was still disoriented even before they were hit by the pandemic, so you can have that one.

2021: Shin Megami Tensei V (November) re-announced a year in advance during the first Partner Showcase
Pokemon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl (November) announced during Pokemon Presents

2022: Xenoblade Chronicles 3* (July) *announced during the February Direct for September, but was pushed forward for unknown reasons
Splatoon 3 (September) announced a year in advance during the previous February Direct
Mario and Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (October) announced a year in advance during the E3 Direct
Bayonetta 3 (October) re-announced a year in advance during the September Direct

2023: Pikmin 4 (July) announced during the September Direct

My point here is that, even if we have titles announced eons ago, we always had a few things to look forward to later and that even includes third-party announcements. This last Direct barely gives us an inkling (woomy)
of what to expect in even the summer, both first and third-party wise, coupled with Furukawa's comments on uncharted territory, it's plain to see why many of us in this thread are wondering and even assuming new hardware is so close. Again, this may just be my confirmation bias, but I'd like to think my guesstimation is somewhat accurate; even though patterns are meant to be broken, there's no denying that there is one and that is very important in this discussion.

 

[FeiFongWong]

Yeah, its really weird that we are getting a game almost every month up until july and seemingly nothing for 5 next months. We'll see soon-ish what is nintendo planning. Would be great that they held a direct in june.

 

[Angel Whispers]

Imo the real key to success is the drip-feed DLC approach for all of their marquee titles. Imagine if TotK started off with 2 Sky Islands but they added 1 new one every 3-4 months? I think this would really propel sales

Date aside, the Devil is truly among us, and Hell is a place on the Internet, nine circles deep.

 

[KeijiKG]

Maybe he was too sleep-deprived to look at the calendar app on his phone

Excuses, excuses.

 

[D36]

I'm willing to concede to 2024 if we hear about 2H software and nothing else before the end of June. I know some of us expect a July reveal, but that's cutting it too close imo.

Maybe we should bet famicoins to see who's right

 

[Thraktor]

I disagree that a specific "Switch 1 to Switch 2" solution is desirable for BC in the same way as NVN is for native games, and I think you're missing that there's a connection between your two paragraphs here (BC and future-proofing). The reason why the NVN approach exists is to wring every bit of performance of something you explicitly will not reuse (natively) on a future platform. That's the opposite proposition of BC, where you want things to remain compatible into the future with changes in architecture and possibly even graphics vendor, and where low overhead and flexibility are more important than bare metal performance. Using a cross-platform API as the foundation for BC means they can reuse it on any future platform that supports Vulkan, which should be all of them, even if NVN doesn't exist anymore. Whereas "implement this in any way they wish without any regard for anyone else" i.e. treating it only as a "Switch 1 to Switch 2" problem would mean that the same effort needs to be undertaken again for every future console.

The pertinent difference between the two cases, as I mentioned, is that "in the case of the emulators, there is probably little to no benefit from using NVN over Vulkan". If Nintendo were developing, say a Gamecube emulator, I would assume there would be very little cost difference in implementing it in NVN or Vulkan, and very little, if any, performance difference between the two. I would be very surprised if that were the case for BC between Switch 1 and 2. For backwards compatibility, we're talking about managing compatibility between two versions of the same API running on two closely related architectures. A targeted compatibility layer which only concerns itself with the specific differences between the two would both be much simpler (ie cheaper) to build and more performant than a general purpose compatibility layer which maps everything to a higher-level API and is expected to function well on very different hardware.

That's not to say I don't think Nintendo could make such a compatibility layer work in Vulkan, it's just a significant upfront cost, both in dollars and performance, with an uncertain long-term benefit.

I paraphrased it a couple times already, but you can just check out the "Performance" section of the blog post. It states that the best case scenario is no performance penalty, and that in the general case there are performance penalties, which may be offset by CPU performance improvements in handling the pipelines. And rather than listing any performance improvement metrics, a list of maximum permitted regressions which they tested for is cited.

I agree with @oldpuck that the reason for performance regressions being mentioned is more likely about guarding against bad implementations than anything else.

In any case, I don't disagree that there may be cases where changing to this new approach could have an increased performance overhead, I'm just genuinely curious as to where that overhead would come from, and whether it would be large enough to outweigh what appear to be very significant benefits on the application side. It'll probably be some time before we get any real-world indications on performance (ie actual game engines refactored to use this approach), so I'm trying to better understand the implications in the meantime.

I know dolphin, at least, is subject to the same shader stutter that emulators for newer platforms are (if I understand correctly it's a shader per set of TEV parameters, or something like that), with the only real mitigation being that they've been able to write an "ubershader" that can (slowly) emulate the whole TEV pipeline in software for impacted pixels while they generate and compile an optimized shader in the background. Obviously Nintendo would probably ship shader caches to address the problem of having to generate them on the fly, but apparently the reason why dolphin has to do this is because games can just reconfigure the TEV with no warning and get results basically instantaneously. That definitely sounds like dynamism to me, but I don't know how it maps to this new extension.

Yeah, you may be right. I was assuming that Nintendo would precompile shaders and produce a pipeline object for each possible configuration of the TEV pipeline during setup, or each configuration actually used in the game being emulated, and then switch between these Vulkan pipeline objects as the TEV configuration changes. Of course that depends on the combinatorics of possible TEV configurations being small enough to make such a scheme viable, which may not be the case. It also may just allow for a simpler codebase, even if there isn't a performance difference.

As an aside, it's occurred to me that the platform which this will have the biggest impact on will probably be Switch's somewhat-competitor, the Steam Deck. Almost all Steam Deck games run through dxvk, a Direct X to Vulkan compatibility layer, and shader compilation and associated stuttering has definitely been an issue there (although improved since launch). I could see this being very useful for dxvk, although also probably a very large refactoring project to implement.

 

[Wilmore]

Regarding the release of the hardware there are two possibilities:
-> WiiU option: (Announcement in April) - introduction in June - release in November
-> Switch Option: Announcement in October - presentation in January - launch in March.

Both options are compatible with the Pokemon leak; the lack of game ads in the second half of the year is also not indicative of anything since it has happened in previous years.

 

[Concernt]

I'm willing to concede to 2024 if we hear about 2H software and nothing else before the end of June. I know some of us expect a July reveal, but that's cutting it too close imo.

Maybe we should bet famicoins to see who's right

August isn't even too close!


August reveal and November release is nothing I would consider exceptionally odd. July would be perfectly fine.

 

[Concernt]

Regarding the release of the hardware there are two possibilities:
-> WiiU option: (Announcement in April) - introduction in June - release in November
-> Switch Option: Announcement in October - presentation in January - launch in March.

Both options are compatible with the Pokemon leak; the lack of game ads in the second half of the year is also not indicative of anything since it has happened in previous years.

There are many more options than that...

 

[Cybergatuno]

We've definitely had more 2H titles announced earlier in the year than you're implying,as well as had information on them even earlier, especially in the Switch era.

2017: Super Mario Odyssey (October) Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (December) Both announced during the January Presentation

2018: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (December) announced during the March Direct

2019: Luigi's Mansion 3 (October) announced a year in advance during the September Direct
Pokemon Sword and Shield (November) announced during the February Pokemon Direct

2020 was 2020, but it seems like Nintendo was still disoriented even before they were hit by the pandemic, so you can have that one.

2021: Shin Megami Tensei V (November) re-announced a year in advance during the first Partner Showcase
Pokemon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl (November) announced during Pokemon Presents

2022: Xenoblade Chronicles 3* (July) *announced during the February Direct for September, but was pushed forward for unknown reasons
Splatoon 3 (September) announced a year in advance during the previous February Direct
Mario and Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (October) announced a year in advance during the E3 Direct
Bayonetta 3 (October) re-announced a year in advance during the September Direct

2023: Pikmin 4 (July) announced during the September Direct

My point here is that, even if we have titles announced eons ago, we always had a few things to look forward to later and that even includes third-party announcements. This last Direct barely gives us an inkling (woomy)
of what to expect in even the summer, both first and third-party wise, coupled with Furukawa's comments on uncharted territory, it's plain to see why many of us in this thread are wondering and even assuming new hardware is so close. Again, this may just be my confirmation bias, but I'd like to think my guesstimation is somewhat accurate; even though patterns are meant to be broken, there's no denying that there is one and that is very important in this discussion.

I would add that we always had a bunch of games with TBA release dates: TotK, Bayonetta 3, SMT5 and Metroid 4. Always something to look forward to in the mid-term.
Except Metroid 4 which always seemed ways off, I always had the feeling that any one could be re-announced at any time and release in the next 6 months.

As Metroid 4 still feels very abstract, there is nothing, absolutely nothing, to look forward to after July, in 3 months.
This is also unprecedented.

 

[Dekuman]

The empty H2 is a puzzle piece that should resolve itself soon enough, and once we have that solved, we would get a better picture of when the next Switch launches.

I'll also emphasize as @D36 noted that the lack of known games is unpredecented in the 6 years of Switch. So there's something going on.

Until we get H2 sortd out , I'm going to lean in and say it's a potential argument for a late H2 Switch 2 release. Just because we had some fake leaks use this date and then out themselves as faking it doesn't mean H2 2023 is off the table.

Full disclosure, i've felt late H2 announce and Spring 2024 as more plausible.

 

[D36]

August isn't even too close!


August reveal and November release is nothing I would consider exceptionally odd. July would be perfectly fine.

Really? What about launch titles, like a 2D/3D Mario? Wouldn't you want at least three months worth of marketing for a game like that?

 

[D36]

I should also point out that the Switch's release date was a fringe case, as it was supposed to be a holiday launch and it just happened to work out. I can see Nintendo doing that again, but I would argue that a holiday release is more likely, as that would maximize profit. The 3DS also launched under similar conditions, but we all know how that turned out.

 

[ILikeFeet]

another entry into the gaming handheld market, Asus. yes it's 4/1, but this is pretty much a real product

 

[TSR3]

I expect the pricing situation to change to:

Lite - 200$

Isn't the lite 200$ in US already? Are you not expecting a price cut for it in the future? I would have guessed it would go down to $169 even to $149, following the 3DS/2DS precedents

 

[Dekuman]

another entry into the gaming handheld market, Asus. yes it's 4/1, but this is pretty much a real product

They will all sell a few thousand units, maybe a few hundred thousand. Steam Deck is the big whale, but the market is awfully crowded now.
That said Switch always had to face the portable PC alternative. I recall some people making a big deal out of the GDP win way back in 2017.

It's interesting to look at but fundamentally, these are are just running PC games in a form factor that's 2-3x the size of an actual Switch. They aren't even competing in the same space. It gives never-Nintendo owners an excuse not to own a Switch though. I guess?

 

[Hush]

As a worst case scenario, that's a pretty good one to have. OLED model was still 10 million for its first year.

I don't think most people would EXPECT a mid-gen upgrade in year 7 or 8, so I don't think it will take much to convince the people who aren't fools or trolls that that's not the case.

Don´t overestimate consumer behavior. A lot of products are presented to people and they form their own opinions on what it ¨really¨ is to them. A more powerful Switch may seem like a stopgap between some new gimmick based platform that redefines the experience. I really think Nintendo needs drive home why it is the next generation of their platforms and why it isn´t just the same Switch experience with better graphics.

 

[Dekuman]

Don´t overestimate consumer behavior. A lot of products are presented to people and they form their own opinions on what it ¨really¨ is to them. A more powerful Switch may seem like a stopgap between some new gimmick based platform that redefines the experience. I really think Nintendo needs drive home why it is the next generation of their platforms and why it isn´t just the same Switch experience with better graphics.

That's where the branding comes in. Wii U was treated as a mid-gen upgrade/new gimmick because the consumers have been conditioned to think Wii as the over-arching brand and Wii U wasn't immediately clear as a next-gen console despite us nerds knowing it being significantly more powerful.

I don't see the same issue with Switch. We have Switch LITE which is positions as a smaller portable only Switch, the base Switch, and Switch OLED which clearly positions it as a premium Switch with an OLED screen. They can simply call it the new Switch, the Switch Super, the Switch <insert superlative> and people will get it. In a way, Switch is a lot more like the NES in terms of its brand positioning.

We also don't have a glut of Switch branded products (with the exception of 1-2-Switch and Switch sports) on the market that would confuse people.

 

[ILikeFeet]

They will all sell a few thousand units, maybe a few hundred thousand. Steam Deck is the big whale, but the market is awfully crowded now.
That said Switch always had to face the portable PC alternative. I recall some people making a big deal out of the GDP win way back in 2017.

It's interesting to look at but fundamentally, these are are just running PC games in a form factor that's 2-3x the size of an actual Switch. They aren't even competing in the same space. It gives never-Nintendo owners an excuse not to own a Switch though. I guess?

I don't see this breaking into the six digit units. this is gonna be $600 or so at minimum. Valve has the benefit of a store to subsidize the product but even they can't put out enough volume to make the product cheaper

 

[Hush]

Really? What about launch titles, like a 2D/3D Mario? Wouldn't you want at least three months worth of marketing for a game like that?

This is kind of my point in my exchange with another member in this thread, you need ample marketing time for any game or gaming device. I think we are still very much in the ~5 month rule and anything less would be very narrow to build plus maintain high levels of hype. It takes time for product listings and info drops to roll out and consistently remind people ¨X is coming so be excited!¨

If there is a Switch 2 or 3D Mario, or both even then there is no way we don´t hear about it by July.

 

[Hush]

That's where the branding comes in. Wii U was treated as a mid-gen upgrade/new gimmick because the consumers have been conditioned to think Wii as the over-arching brand and Wii U wasn't immediately clear as a next-gen console despite us nerds knowing it being significantly more powerful.

I don't see the same issue with Switch. We have Switch LITE which is positions as a smaller portable only Switch, the base Switch, and Switch OLED which clearly positions it as a premium Switch with an OLED screen. They can simply call it the new Switch, the Switch Super, the Switch <insert superlative> and people will get it. In a way, Switch is a lot more like the NES in terms of its brand positioning.

We also don't have a glut of Switch branded products (with the exception of 1-2-Switch and Switch sports) on the market that would confuse people.

The Wii U was treated as a serious new platform but the controller focused reveal was the kiss of death, too many people said ¨So its just a controller add-on?¨ and it spread like wildfire. It was also not serving any purposes that the 3DS didn´t fulfill, like a new 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros., etc. It was no secret why Nintendo decided to merge their console and handheld divisions really.

Also, in a controlled marketing experiment with no variables, you are definitely right about the Switch 2. With perfect conditions then there is nothing to worry about. But there are always variables with consumer reaction being one of them. And Nintendo has experienced how bad it can get

 

[Deleted member 887]

In any case, I don't disagree that there may be cases where changing to this new approach could have an increased performance overhead, I'm just genuinely curious as to where that overhead would come from, and whether it would be large enough to outweigh what appear to be very significant benefits on the application side.

Non-game applications. A good example - and one which I go back to a lot just because I am familiar with it - is a browser renderer. CSS actually defines a pretty small number of primitives, and you can handle the whole spec with something like 6 shaders. It's basically a best case scenario for pipelines, and likely to be highly sensitive to performance differences between the two.

It'll probably be some time before we get any real-world indications on performance (ie actual game engines refactored to use this approach), so I'm trying to better understand the implications in the meantime.

One of the goals of Vulkan/Mantle was to simplify drivers, and the pipeline API was Khronos/AMD's attempt to not only jettison a huge chunk of lgic but to heavily discourage the then-rampant growth of shaders that only varied by tiny amounts, and were generated at run time. It didn't work.

If you look at Unreal, one of the reasons that engine has been so successful is the way designs can rapidly generate lots of single purpose shaders, often parameterized. That means all Vulkan - and DirectX 12 and Metal, which took similar approaches - managed to do was push the maintenance and CPU burden out of the driver and into the engine.

One of the values of Vulkan is it lets the hardware vendors and game developers to talk that isn't dominated by Microsoft, and Mantle was a huge influence on DirectX 12, which essentially copied its command queue system wholesale. I'm more curious to see how long before DirectX follows suit here, or if they'll take a different direction. If they do, I expect not only for game engines to happily eject their cruft, but that driver support will get more and more robust as it becomes shared between API implementations.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

The Wii U was treated as a serious new platform but the controller focused reveal was the kiss of death, too many people said ¨So its just a controller add-on?¨ and it spread like wildfire. It was also not serving any purposes that the 3DS didn´t fulfill, like a new 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros., etc. It was no secret why Nintendo decided to merge their console and handheld divisions really.

Also, in a controlled marketing experiment with no variables, you are definitely right about the Switch 2. With perfect conditions then there is nothing to worry about. But there are always variables with consumer reaction being one of them. And Nintendo has experienced how bad it can get

The kiss of death was being conceptually unsound. It wouldn’t have mattered if the device had the perfect reveal since it was a device made for literally no one.

 

[LukasManak22]

We've definitely had more 2H titles announced earlier in the year than you're implying,as well as had information on them even earlier, especially in the Switch era.

2017: Super Mario Odyssey (October) Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (December) Both announced during the January Presentation

2018: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (December) announced during the March Direct

2019: Luigi's Mansion 3 (October) announced a year in advance during the September Direct
Pokemon Sword and Shield (November) announced during the February Pokemon Direct

2020 was 2020, but it seems like Nintendo was still disoriented even before they were hit by the pandemic, so you can have that one.

2021: Shin Megami Tensei V (November) re-announced a year in advance during the first Partner Showcase
Pokemon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl (November) announced during Pokemon Presents

2022: Xenoblade Chronicles 3* (July) *announced during the February Direct for September, but was pushed forward for unknown reasons
Splatoon 3 (September) announced a year in advance during the previous February Direct
Mario and Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (October) announced a year in advance during the E3 Direct
Bayonetta 3 (October) re-announced a year in advance during the September Direct

2023: Pikmin 4 (July) announced during the September Direct

My point here is that, even if we have titles announced eons ago, we always had a few things to look forward to later and that even includes third-party announcements. This last Direct barely gives us an inkling (woomy)
of what to expect in even the summer, both first and third-party wise, coupled with Furukawa's comments on uncharted territory, it's plain to see why many of us in this thread are wondering and even assuming new hardware is so close. Again, this may just be my confirmation bias, but I'd like to think my guesstimation is somewhat accurate; even though patterns are meant to be broken, there's no denying that there is one and that is very important in this discussion.

I wasn't implying that there weren't more 2H titles announced earlier in the year, am aware of these cases and it's definitely more common, however the cases you listed aren't as straightforward as they seem to be, for example:

The Odyssey and Xenoblade 2 in 2017, they were part of the Switch Event, it was meant to showcase that they had titles well beyond launch, it was the EPD night when they went all in. Of course you will show games that will launch in year 1 in a presentation that will decide your future.

As for Pokemon games, it's also really simple, these were tied to Pokemon Directs (and still are) which always took place around Pokemon Day, so they were announcing them earlier.

Yeah, 2020 was different in any way to no point bringing that up.

Xenoblade 3 was pushed forward due to Splatoon not being ready in time (highly likely).

Rabbids 2 could have been looking forward to something moment or bigger marketing time.

Splatoon 3 was announced year and a half in advance because hiring for it popped ou right away after the February 2021 announcement.

No point of talking about Bayo 3 since it was announced years ago in 2017.

Both Mario Party games (2018 and 2021) were announced at E3's and were still coming that Holiday.

I stand by my point that Nintendo had no reason to announce what will they bring in Holidays because TotK is the thing that's on everyones mind, it's one of the (even if not most anticipated Switch title ever), they will be fine if they will announce their H2 games after it's out, and as I said it's not necesirally when the games are ready but how much marketing time they will give them. I don't think Nintendo has any big titles planned for this Holiday (2D Mario is still pretty big), but it's obvious that we are going slowly away from Switch hardware, however I still don't think the next gen is coming this CY, altough it will still be in this FY.

If they wanted they could have put Pikmin later in the year (which they didn't) despite people believeing so, when they bareilly showed anything in that initial announcement. If new hardware was coming this Fall they would gladly schedule that game around the hardware launch and made it 4K ready (with still being cross-gen on Switch). Pikmin is the game that would greatly benefit from the 4K output right away from it's launch. But they haven't done that, it's coming in July.

I agree that bigger releases are I would say almost precedent to be announced year earlier (Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing, Smash) but as I stated in my previous post, both NSMUDX (altough that's a port) and brand new 2D Mario (Maker 2) only had 4 months from reveal to release and that isn't a small game by any means, selling close to 8 mil. copies.

 

[LiC]

I wasn't implying that there weren't more 2H titles announced earlier in the year, am aware of these cases and it's definitely more common, however the cases you listed aren't as straightforward as they seem to be, for example:

The Odyssey and Xenoblade 2 in 2017, they were part of the Switch Event, it was meant to showcase that they had titles well beyond launch, it was the EPD night when they went all in. Of course you will show games that will launch in year 1 in a presentation that will decide your future.

As for Pokemon games, it's also really simple, these were tied to Pokemon Directs (and still are) which always took place around Pokemon Day, so they were announcing them earlier.

Yeah, 2020 was different in any way to no point bringing that up.

Xenoblade 3 was pushed forward due to Splatoon not being ready in time (highly likely).

Rabbids 2 could have been looking forward to something moment or bigger marketing time.

Splatoon 3 was announced year and a half in advance because hiring for it popped ou right away after the February 2021 announcement.

No point of talking about Bayo 3 since it was announced years ago in 2017.

Both Mario Party games (2018 and 2021) were announced at E3's and were still coming that Holiday.

I stand by my point that Nintendo had no reason to announce what will they bring in Holidays because TotK is the thing that's on everyones mind, it's one of the (even if not most anticipated Switch title ever), they will be fine if they will announce their H2 games after it's out, and as I said it's not necesirally when the games are ready but how much marketing time they will give them. I don't think Nintendo has any big title planned for this Holiday (2D Mario is still pretty big), but it's obvious that we are going slowly away from Switch hardware, however I still don't think the next gen is coming this CY, altough it will still be in this FY.

If they wanted they could have put Pikmin later in the year (which they didn't) despite people believeing so when they bareilly showed anything in that initial announcement. If new hardware was coming this Fall they would gladly schedule that game around the hardware launch and made it 4K ready (with still being cross-gen on Switch). Pikmin is the game that would greatly benefit from the 4K output right away from launch. But they haven't done that, it's coming in July.
I agree that bigger releases are I would say almost precedent to be announced year earlier (Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing, Smash) but as I stated in my previous post, both NSMUDX (altough that's a port) and brand new 2D Mario (Maker 2) only had 4 months from reveal to release and that isn't a small game by any means, selling close to 8 mil. copies.

Few (if any) people are claiming that the current lack of H2 releases necessarily has to do with new hardware. However, I don't understand your repeated assertions that there's nothing unusual about the situation. It's very unusual! Not just to not have games announced from previous years, but to have not announced any in this year's first Direct, and to have put multiple releases in the first half that were previously undated/unannounced and could have been spread out. And waiting until a major release like TotK is out to announce more games for the rest of the year is something Nintendo has never done, so that doesn't make a good explanation either. Kind of another "they can't talk about X this week because they're marketing the Mario movie" explanation, IMO, which are never actually borne out by precedent.

Edit: Also, very much disagree with the idea that Pikmin (or any other game that would have been in development for the original Switch already) would or should have been moved based on new hardware. That's just... not true. Metroid Prime 4 is not going to be a new hardware showcase either, because it has also been in development for years on the current Switch. It would not be moved based on the release date of new hardware. It's a Switch game. So is Pikmin. It has nothing to do with new hardware any more than TotK.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Regarding the release of the hardware there are two possibilities:
-> WiiU option: (Announcement in April) - introduction in June - release in November
-> Switch Option: Announcement in October - presentation in January - launch in March.

Both options are compatible with the Pokemon leak; the lack of game ads in the second half of the year is also not indicative of anything since it has happened in previous years.

Well, technically if it was the Wii U way, wouldn’t it be November of the following year? And introduced this year?

 

[Starbreaker]

I see it going like this:

Lite $149-169
OLED $279-300
Super Switch $399-449

I also see a TV only Switch variant launching in the late adoption period, for something like $129. There are people out there that just want to play some of the Switch library and don't care about handheld play. My partner being one, she almost never takes hers out of the dock.

 

[D36]

I wasn't implying that there weren't more 2H titles announced earlier in the year, am aware of these cases and it's definitely more common, however the cases you listed aren't as straightforward as they seem to be, for example:

The Odyssey and Xenoblade 2 in 2017, they were part of the Switch Event, it was meant to showcase that they had titles well beyond launch, it was the EPD night when they went all in. Of course you will show games that will launch in year 1 in a presentation that will decide your future.

As for Pokemon games, it's also really simple, these were tied to Pokemon Directs (and still are) which always took place around Pokemon Day, so they were announcing them earlier.

Yeah, 2020 was different in any way to no point bringing that up.

Xenoblade 3 was pushed forward due to Splatoon not being ready in time (highly likely).

Rabbids 2 could have been looking forward to something moment or bigger marketing time.

Splatoon 3 was announced year and a half in advance because hiring for it popped ou right away after the February 2021 announcement.

No point of talking about Bayo 3 since it was announced years ago in 2017.

Both Mario Party games (2018 and 2021) were announced at E3's and were still coming that Holiday.

I stand by my point that Nintendo had no reason to announce what will they bring in Holidays because TotK is the thing that's on everyones mind, it's one of the (even if not most anticipated Switch title ever), they will be fine if they will announce their H2 games after it's out, and as I said it's not necesirally when the games are ready but how much marketing time they will give them. I don't think Nintendo has any big titles planned for this Holiday (2D Mario is still pretty big), but it's obvious that we are going slowly away from Switch hardware, however I still don't think the next gen is coming this CY, altough it will still be in this FY.

If they wanted they could have put Pikmin later in the year (which they didn't) despite people believeing so, when they bareilly showed anything in that initial announcement. If new hardware was coming this Fall they would gladly schedule that game around the hardware launch and made it 4K ready (with still being cross-gen on Switch). Pikmin is the game that would greatly benefit from the 4K output right away from it's launch. But they haven't done that, it's coming in July.

I agree that bigger releases are I would say almost precedent to be announced year earlier (Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing, Smash) but as I stated in my previous post, both NSMUDX (altough that's a port) and brand new 2D Mario (Maker 2) only had 4 months from reveal to release and that isn't a small game by any means, selling close to 8 mil. copies.

I doubt a big fall game announcement would distract people from TotK all that much, it's a game that can stand on its own regardless of whatever is on the horizon; this would be a similar case to The Last of Us 2 and Ghost of Tsushima, where despite the impending release of the PS5, they still sold gang-busters. Even if we're moving away from Switch hardware, there should still be incentive get move said hardware, when a successor is still not available. If [REDACTED] isn't coming out this year, we should have at least gotten rumblings of something big for the end of the year, right?

Regarding, I don't think it would be necessary to push it back until [REDACTED] is out, they could just give it a next-gen patch and call it a day (I think they've already planned for that, anyway).

Mario U Deluxe is still a port and Mario Maker 2 is a level editor, neither of these, imo carry the same weight as an Odyssey, 3D World, or a new 2D entry.

 

[Hosermess]

So I've been thinking, and Nintendo really needs to do these things to guarantee the Switch 2's success:

1) Shadow-drop it. People loved Hi-Fi Rush and Metroid Prime Remastered being shadow-dropped, so why not do it for a console? To keep from leaks they need to make sure not to tell anyone, not even publishers and retailers: the surprise is everything.
2) Price it $100 more than the Steam Deck. More profits and it's Nintendo, after all. People will be all over it. They love Mario!
3) Don't release a mainline Mario game for it.
4) Focus hard on 2D games, designing the entire system around making sure they look the best. 3D games aren't the future nor will they ever be.
5) Call it the Nintendo Uranus

What does everyone think? Personally, in these turbulent times, the above will really cement Nintendo as a major platform holder for many years to come.

did you set your alarm on a Saturday just for this?

 

[Plum]

did you set your alarm on a Saturday just for this?

Nah, but I did set my alarm on a Saturnday.

If you don't get it and I'm not being bamboozled here lol: The post is a joke relating to today's April Fool's joke, where I pretend that Nintendo needs to follow the disastrous path of the Sega Saturn.

 

[LukasManak22]

However, I don't understand your repeated assertions that there's nothing unusual about the situation. It's very unusual! And waiting until a major release like TotK is out to announce more games for the rest of the year is something Nintendo has never done, so that doesn't make a good explanation either. Kind of another "they can't talk about X this week because they're marketing the Mario movie" explanation, IMO, which are never actually borne out by precedent.

I said it in the post, Switch is in it's 7 year, of course the software pipeline is slowing and they won't just announce any major EPD release since they moved onto next Switch.

And waiting until a major release like TotK is out to announce more games for the rest of the year is something Nintendo has never done, so that doesn't make a good explanation either. Kind of another "they can't talk about X this week because they're marketing the Mario movie" explanation, IMO, which are never actually borne out by precedent.

This is not true at all. If the Direct is closer to new release they are always waiting for that game to be out and not have presentation the same week, this happened quite a lot of times.

 

[Dekuman]

I doubt a big fall game announcement would distract people from TotK all that much, it's a game that can stand on its own regardless of whatever is on the horizon; this would be a similar case to The Last of Us 2 and Ghost of Tsushima, where despite the impending release of the PS5, they still sold gang-busters. Even if we're moving away from Switch hardware, there should still be incentive get move said hardware, when a successor is still not available. If [REDACTED] isn't coming out this year, we should have at least gotten rumblings of something big for the end of the year, right?

Regarding, I don't think it would be necessary to push it back until [REDACTED] is out, they could just give it a next-gen patch and call it a day (I think they've already planned for that, anyway).

Mario U Deluxe is still a port and Mario Maker 2 is a level editor, neither of these, imo carry the same weight as an Odyssey, 3D World, or a new 2D entry.

Yeah, the thing that puzzles me is the lack of annoucements rather than a lack of dating on H2. We knew about several 2022 big releases way back in 2021. They could have, in the spring direct, announced a game and date it for '2023' without giving a date and we didn't even get that.

The only time with Switch we had a very short announcement and release was Age of Calamity during COVID. So the only thing I can think of with the lack of H2 announcements is Nintendo themselves are not sure what their slate looks like. This would jive with insider reports of Nintendo having a weak 2nd half, likely because their sources knew nothing of H2. The alternative is of course, H2 is being reserved for the Switch 2, which means very few people know about the lineup right now

 

[MusicProposition]

I wasn't implying that there weren't more 2H titles announced earlier in the year, am aware of these cases and it's definitely more common, however the cases you listed aren't as straightforward as they seem to be, for example:

The Odyssey and Xenoblade 2 in 2017, they were part of the Switch Event, it was meant to showcase that they had titles well beyond launch, it was the EPD night when they went all in. Of course you will show games that will launch in year 1 in a presentation that will decide your future.

As for Pokemon games, it's also really simple, these were tied to Pokemon Directs (and still are) which always took place around Pokemon Day, so they were announcing them earlier.

Yeah, 2020 was different in any way to no point bringing that up.

Xenoblade 3 was pushed forward due to Splatoon not being ready in time (highly likely).

Rabbids 2 could have been looking forward to something moment or bigger marketing time.

Splatoon 3 was announced year and a half in advance because hiring for it popped ou right away after the February 2021 announcement.

No point of talking about Bayo 3 since it was announced years ago in 2017.

Both Mario Party games (2018 and 2021) were announced at E3's and were still coming that Holiday.

I stand by my point that Nintendo had no reason to announce what will they bring in Holidays because TotK is the thing that's on everyones mind, it's one of the (even if not most anticipated Switch title ever), they will be fine if they will announce their H2 games after it's out, and as I said it's not necesirally when the games are ready but how much marketing time they will give them. I don't think Nintendo has any big titles planned for this Holiday (2D Mario is still pretty big), but it's obvious that we are going slowly away from Switch hardware, however I still don't think the next gen is coming this CY, altough it will still be in this FY.

If they wanted they could have put Pikmin later in the year (which they didn't) despite people believeing so, when they bareilly showed anything in that initial announcement. If new hardware was coming this Fall they would gladly schedule that game around the hardware launch and made it 4K ready (with still being cross-gen on Switch). Pikmin is the game that would greatly benefit from the 4K output right away from it's launch. But they haven't done that, it's coming in July.

I agree that bigger releases are I would say almost precedent to be announced year earlier (Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing, Smash) but as I stated in my previous post, both NSMUDX (altough that's a port) and brand new 2D Mario (Maker 2) only had 4 months from reveal to release and that isn't a small game by any means, selling close to 8 mil. copies.

I totally agree that we can’t predict Hardware plans based on the lack of announcements for H2. With Nintendo, you should never think that just because something looks barren, a big blowout is coming. People for example expected the 3DAS titles to be released separately after the delisting, but in the end, it was just a big FOMO thing. Same goes for many other things that happened. But I’ll agree with others that it’s strange for them to not relay most of their line up in the first Direct, which they did most of the time (just not in 2020 and 2021). However, it’s generally an odd year with the movie and of course TOTK in may.

 

[MusicProposition]

I wonder what Nates standpoint on the CY23 launch speculation is. He was always pretty sure about a late 2024/early 2025 launch, but I think that’s just REALLY late.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I remember reading about people saying Horizon Forbidden West would overshadow Zelda Breath of the wild.


and that’s why Nintendo flopped and is now a hanafuda card vendor at a tiny shop in Japan because it was overshadowed by HZD.


All because they overshadowed Zelda.

oh wait, that didn’t happen! People are greatly underestimating Zelda here . And I’m not trying to knock on HZD, but come on people!

 

[LiC]

I said it in the post, Switch is in it's 7 year, of course the software pipeline is slowing and they won't just announce any major EPD release since they moved onto next Switch.

If the pipeline was slowing down then they would have released Prime and Pikmin in the second half of the year. I really don't see how that can be disputed. And it's not even about not having a major EPD release announced. They have zero releases announced.

This is not true at all. If the Direct is closer to new release they are always waiting for that game to be out and not have presentation the same week, this happened quite a lot of times.

I doubt this is actually true if you actually go and check, but that's not what I was talking about. They already had a Direct this year, and they didn't use it to announce a single H2 game. Using TotK's May launch as an excuse for that doesn't make sense. The normal thing to do would be to announce some H2 games in the first Direct, market and release TotK, then fully reveal and start marketing the H2 games in earnest with the June Direct. TotK's existence doesn't mean they can't mention anything for H2 until after May 12.

 

[Hosermess]

I wonder what Nates standpoint on the CY23 launch speculation is. He was always pretty sure about a late 2024/early 2025 launch, but I think that’s just REALLY late.

He speculated about that window, that doesn't mean he is/was pretty sure about it.

 

[LukasManak22]

Edit: Also, very much disagree with the idea that Pikmin (or any other game that would have been in development for the original Switch already) would or should have been moved based on new hardware. That's just... not true. Metroid Prime 4 is not going to be a new hardware showcase either, because it has also been in development for years on the current Switch. It would not be moved based on the release date of new hardware. It's a Switch game. So is Pikmin. It has nothing to do with new hardware any more than TotK.

I haven't said that it should be moved to new hardware, read the post. I said it would benefit the game to be one of the launch titles for new system which still being cross-gen for this Switch (as they announced it already in Septemebr 2022 for that console and was developed for years for that system as well). Miyamoto saying that 4K would benefit the series and we all know it as well, as this kind of game is perfect to show the power of the new system.

I doubt a big fall game announcement would distract people from TotK all that much, it's a game that can stand on its own regardless of whatever is on the horizon; this would be a similar case to The Last of Us 2 and Ghost of Tsushima, where despite the impending release of the PS5, they still sold gang-busters. Even if we're moving away from Switch hardware, there should still be incentive get move said hardware, when a successor is still not available. If [REDACTED] isn't coming out this year, we should have at least gotten rumblings of something big for the end of the year, right?

Regarding, I don't think it would be necessary to push it back until [REDACTED] is out, they could just give it a next-gen patch and call it a day (I think they've already planned for that, anyway).

Mario U Deluxe is still a port and Mario Maker 2 is a level editor, neither of these, imo carry the same weight as an Odyssey, 3D World, or a new 2D entry.

Only thing we got was "no major titles after TotK" which at the end of the day was nothing since the source said he basically knows nothing.

Mario Maker 2 is level editor but it still is a new 2D entry in the series, it has full campain in it too. New. Super Mario Bros. Wii was announced E3 2009 and was released that Holiday. New Super Mario Bros. 2 was announced in April 2012 and was released in July 2012. So I would say for 2D series is more common than is is not not have is announce closer to release (in some cases) when they aren't tied to hardware reveal (Wii U - New. Super Mario Bros U).

 

[LiC]

I haven't said that it should be moved to new hardware, read the post. I said it would benefit the game to be one of the launch titles for new system which still being cross-gen for this Switch (as they announced it already in Septemebr 2022 for that console and was developed for years for that system as well). Miyamoto saying that 4K would benefit the series and we all know it as well, as this kind of game is perfect to show the power of the new system.

I said moving the release date. "It would be perfect for cross-gen/4K/whatever" doesn't mean Nintendo is going to move its Switch games around because of new hardware. They have Switch games they want to release for the Switch. If one of them was targeting in or after the launch window of new hardware, some of us expect they would throw in a graphics patch and so on. They would not move a game in order to do that. Same way they wouldn't delay TotK again for a cross-gen release just because its release date ended up kinda sorta near new hardware.

 

[Hush]

The kiss of death was being conceptually unsound. It wouldn’t have mattered if the device had the perfect reveal since it was a device made for literally no one.

It was the first HD Nintendo system and it had a slew of first party games... how was it a device for no one? The tablet controller was no a deal breaker for the average customer, the problem is the masses were left utterly confused on what the product was. People literally were like ¨Oh so you can play it like handheld but you cant take it with you? It doesn´t attach to the Wii? Wait what does the tablet screen add to games?¨. That sort of confusion just turns people off and it SPREADS which is more damaging than anything

 

[Teal'c]

As much as some of the theories related to the (missing) lineup for the second half of 2023 may make sense, they are not indicative of Drake's release date in my opinion (after all, third parties are also missing).
Or at the very least, it could be that Nintendo already has some first-party releases ready to go, and is simply waiting to announce them (a bit like Engage) while it watches how things develop.

p. s. happy to be wrong

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

It was the first HD Nintendo system and it had a slew of first party games... how was it a device for no one? The tablet controller was no a deal breaker for the average customer, the problem is the masses were left utterly confused on what the product was. People literally were like ¨Oh so you can play it like handheld but you cant take it with you? It doesn´t attach to the Wii? Wait what does the tablet screen add to games?¨. That sort of confusion just turns people off and it SPREADS which is more damaging than anything

Who cares if it was their first HD device. In the bolded you literally answer your own question. The masses were confused because the device was conceptually unsound; meaning the device was made with no thought to who it was targeting or how to appeal to them except the absolute diehards. Being an unsalvageable mess is way more damaging then just confusing people; at least in the latter’s case you can recover from it while the former is impossible short of a complete redesign. Like what do you think was gonna happen if they had a better reveal for the WiiU? It probably amounts to a couple extra million in sales, so instead of being a complete disaster it becomes a partially complete disaster.