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Discussion [The Verge] Tech Fails of 2022: The Nintendo Switch Really Showed Its Age

It is time for a Switch successor


  • Total voters
    356
I truly do expect to be disappointed, yes. I also think it will just be an absolutely idiotic decision. Like such a dumb business decision I can't think of a more recent, dumber one. You got a near 30 million seller, most anticipated, likely GOTY contender sequel to one of the great reviewed games of all time that began the Switch's run 6 years ago. I just...I just cannot understand. Does not compute.

Disclaimer: everything that follows is just my opinion, not an attack on anyone.
With all due respect my dude, I believe that you are conflating your own expectations with the reality of Nintendo's business. The new consoles have been on the market for more than 2 years, yet the Switch will probably sell, without a revision, more than 15 millions machine next year. The huge install base and strong release schedule will also ensure some excellent software sales in 2023. Announcing the machine sometimes during late summer 2023 or even early autumn for a 2024 release would give them tons of momentum, and would also offer them the opportunity to clearly explain the positionning of both the new console and the old one, which could be supported for an additional 2 years.
There is at this point nothing indicating that Nintendo plans to release a new console for the next 10-12 months, except a lot of wishful thinking and unverfied hearsays, so it is fair to assume that their strategy was always to have a 7-ish years long cycle if nothing happens by next summer. I assume that such decision was made around 2020, when it was clear that the Switch was not a new Wii and that it wouldn't abruptly lose momentum if it was properly supported. I think it's a smart strategy by Nintendo, even when factoring third parties and especially considering that this generation will last longer than the previous ones and the Series S will probably not be dropped until 2029-ish.
 
What’s really wild to me, as someone who tends to actively participate in whatever community I tend to be part of, is that the simple act of actually being active with my posting seems to generate an unreasonable amount of pushback; it doesn’t matter where I am or what I’m posting, sooner or later, someone or the other will take umbrage at what they view as me posting excessively, either in general, or about some particular topics.

Kind of hoped this community would be better on that front but 🤷‍♂️

Anyway, yes, I agree with you. I love the Switch. I love Nintendo. I barely care for visuals and tech. I want a new Switch because the current one is clearly old, and the longer Nintendo takes to move on to their next system, the likelier the chance that third party support (integral to my enjoyment of the Switch) gets compromised as the industry moves on without Nintendo. Again.

For what it’s worth I always enjoy your threads as the OPs usually have plenty of food for thought. I might not always agree with you, but I do try to debate the points put forward for discussion- see below! :)
it's wild to me that there's seemingly nowhere on the internet where wanting a new switch doesn't get pushback

most places you're expected to have given up on nintendo, most of this site doesn't care, and even the hardware thread is full of regulars insisting that they don't care about it and just enjoy the industry talk

I sometimes feel like I'm the only person on earth who wants pikmin 4 and splatoon to be 4K without emulation
This point about ‘isn’t it time for a switch 2’ is a recurring one. I agree with Phantom Thief’s general thrust that the time to introduce a successor is before the current product falls out of the zeitgeist. While I think it’s easy enough for me to say ‘I’m not too fussed either way’, perhaps another spin for fami would be- “if they announced it in February for release in May, how would you feel, would you rush to pick it up with Zelda or wait and see?” I rarely go for hardware at launch but I could really see myself doing so with the right ‘killer app’ (showing my age there). If anything is going to sell me on a new Switch at launch it would be TotK, because while I usually just don’t care about performance, it seems like the kinda thing where it would make being an early adopter more attractive to me.

As an aside, I don’t think the ‘tech fail’ in the article headline has helped this thread at all, when you really have to reach to consider the aging Switch one of the ‘tech fails’ of the year.
 
The bubble of enthusiasts is really funny (and by that, I mean tiresome);

Switch is fine, is doing fine, biggest success Nintendo ever had since the Wii, and I guarantee you that smashing majority of people playing the system right now is just happy with it and not thinking a bit about horsepower (as they weren't thinking about that on the Wii either). Helps that games are fun, of course.

Once we get on the fabled successor, we'll reach the exact same point of complains the Switch currently have.

Better save energy and enjoy the present; 'v'

EDIT: Oh, by the way, this is not an attack on you @Phantom Thief ! Hope you don't get me wrong 🐺
 
600p third party games and 720p first party developed / published games when docked for people with 40-50+” 4k HDTV’s is an absolutely awful experience even up against the base PS4. A console from almost a decade ago…

They have a point and 2023 is past due for an upgrade. It’s a good job it looks like we’re getting it next year 😃
This was true 3-years ago…and the Switch kept selling.
 
Personally I think it's a little funny that this conversation could easily be a moot point within the next ~8 months, with a more powerful Switch model easily on the cards for a reveal - or even launch - within that timeframe. I'm very much of the mind that Nintendo will launch new hardware before Switch sales dip much more.

A lot of people seem to forget, or misremember, one of the major factors behind the reorganisation of the company and project NX: to minimise the risks inherent in generational transitions and to ensure a steady supply of software during said transitions, when first party software output would drop on existing hardware and struggle to get moving on new hardware, in turn helping to create conditions where it was risky for third parties to jump in. Another negative for Nintendo's old model was the boom and bust pattern it presented in their annual revenue stream, something they wanted to avoid in future.

Essentially, we're in a position where Nintendo's best interests - as far as they've calculated and prepared for after the Wii U/3DS troubles - is to launch new hardware before their major revenue stream is in danger of drying up; to launch new hardware while making sure the software pipeline is strong; and to make sure it's easy for existing customers to stay within the Nintendo platform and migrate over to new hardware (they've reaffirmed this several times recently to investors).

New hardware in 2023 fits that context. Switch is in decline but not in trouble, and engagement with the platform still seems to be high; major new software is still coming and could be made available on new hardware; the technology (as Miyamoto himself said recently) exists to make the transition easy for customers too.
 
If it doesn't come with ToTK, I genuinely think that will be one of Nintendo's dumbest business decisions that I can remember. Like--you have to be so business inept to not pair the most anticipated game of 2023 with the most anticipated system. I just cannot fathom that stupidity, but it is Nintendo. Maybe I am missing something.

Almost nobody in the world can just go buy a ps5 in store right now.
They're not releasing a new console 5 months form now.
 
It's almost like it came out more than 5 years ago, pikachuface :O

Anyway, that's how it goes. Didn't need an article for it. The problem here is just the Switchs own success. It is selling so well and obviously it would be foolish to abandon it when it is still selling so well, even in face of the new consoles. It's basically like DJ Khaled: Suffering From Success.
 
I agree that I think we hear/see new hardware in 2023, what I don't think is that we're going to have "new console reveal -> release to store shelves" between January and May for TotK like some people are having maximum hopium for. I feel a lot of people are setting themselves up to be disappointed and burned.

My guess is the timeline will be something like this

Jan-Mar: Normal Nintendo Direct showing off the rest of the 2023 line up

Apr: TotK Direct

Jun: E3/Summer Direct with hardware reveal and big launch exclusive reveal, next major Mario game inspired by the film

Nov: Next Switch launch with this Mario game
 
Honestly the more I think about it, the more certain I am that we won't see the Switch's successor in 2023. Even leaving aside the Zelda issue, they've got multiple DLCs and additional content to wrap up for Xenoblade, Mario Kart, Splatoon 3 and likely Pokemon, which a new console's launch would interrupt. We likely should have seen the writing on the wall when they announced Mario Kart 8 DLC will last for 24 months tbh.

I think Nintendo's huge start to the financial year will give the Switch one last big boost which could last well until next Christmas (especially if they have something Mario related in the pipeline). They've announced Pikmin 4 is coming this year and if they pepper their release schedule with enough smaller titles the momentum could last until March 2024, when they release Switch 2 seven years to the nose since the OG Switch released. Bosh, that's a pretty amazing financial year for Nintendo right there.
 
Honestly the more I think about it, the more certain I am that we won't see the Switch's successor in 2023. Even leaving aside the Zelda issue, they've got multiple DLCs and additional content to wrap up for Xenoblade, Mario Kart, Splatoon 3 and likely Pokemon, which a new console's launch would interrupt. We likely should have seen the writing on the wall when they announced Mario Kart 8 DLC will last for 24 months tbh.

I think Nintendo's huge start to the financial year will give the Switch one last big boost which could last well until next Christmas (especially if they have something Mario related in the pipeline). They've announced Pikmin 4 is coming this year and if they pepper their release schedule with enough smaller titles the momentum could last until March 2024, when they release Switch 2 seven years to the nose since the OG Switch released. Bosh, that's a pretty amazing financial year for Nintendo right there.
Considering the successor is backwards compatible which is very likely, I really don't see how it would interrupt anything regarding those DLC.
 
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I agree that I think we hear/see new hardware in 2023, what I don't think is that we're going to have "new console reveal -> release to store shelves" between January and May for TotK like some people are having maximum hopium for. I feel a lot of people are setting themselves up to be disappointed and burned.

My guess is the timeline will be something like this

Jan-Mar: Normal Nintendo Direct showing off the rest of the 2023 line up

Apr: TotK Direct

Jun: E3/Summer Direct with hardware reveal and big launch exclusive reveal, next major Mario game inspired by the film

Nov: Next Switch launch with this Mario game
If Switch 2 launches next fall, I will be extremely disappointed if there aren't plans for TotK to take advantage of that extra power...
 
Considering the successor is backwards compatible which is very likely, I really don't see how it would interrupt anything regarding those DLC.
Put it this way. Why announce a 24 month plan for Mario Kart 8 DLC if a Switch 2 was just around the corner (when it's taking away resources that could be put towards MK9)? Why release Splatoon 3 this year if it's only going to get a 6-12 months of additional content before the entire audience has to move to Switch 2? It's not a deal breaker I admit, and there are ways around it (an Octo-expansion type deal for Splatoon 3 on Switch 2 maybe), but it's very odd to have Nintendo commit to long term service games and additional content if they are gearing up for a new console launch imminently.
 
Honestly the more I think about it, the more certain I am that we won't see the Switch's successor in 2023. Even leaving aside the Zelda issue, they've got multiple DLCs and additional content to wrap up for Xenoblade, Mario Kart, Splatoon 3 and likely Pokemon, which a new console's launch would interrupt. We likely should have seen the writing on the wall when they announced Mario Kart 8 DLC will last for 24 months tbh.

Yeah, Nintendo has pretty much communicated that much to us since the MK8D booster course pack was announced. They've indirectly told us that they aren't slowing down in 2023, which is why my stance has always been that they would talk about new hardware in 2023 but release in 2024.
 
My favorite part (not here thankfully, on Twitter and other forums) is people having selective memory about how games perform. It's fine to want new hardware, I want new hardware too eventually (to see what kind of new games are possible and what new gimmicks we'll get), but claiming stuff like that even the first party games aren't 720p/1080p is funny.

If you look at the list of first party games on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nintendo_products#Nintendo_Switch (and you exclude third party games that they publish), they have around 71 games by my count.

In handheld mode, there's only 12 games that are not at least dynamic 720-648p (Xenoblade 2 + Torna, Pokken Tournament, Yoshi's Crafted World, Link's Awakening, Xenoblade DE, Origami King and both Mario + Rabbids games, which are all 3 600p, Pikmin 3 Deluxe, Age of Calamity, Bayonetta 3 and Scarlet and Violet). And those also include the only ones that have framerate issues (at least from my experience). And realistically, stuff like the Mario RPGs and Link's Awakening still look good at their resolutions in handheld mode, especially on the smaller Switch screens, it's only the ones that have really low resolutions that have issues (but this varies from person to person).

What is the acceptable range for resolution docked for people that want a new Switch? Because it feels weird to demand all games be 1080p on the Switch when a lot of PS4/XB1 games had to drop down to 900p or lower, so I'll just assume 1080p-900p is "acceptable". Then, there's only 14 games out of the 71 that don't hit that. (Pokken Tournament, Xenoblade 2, Bayonetta 1, 2, 3, Yoshi's Crafted World, Link's Awakening, Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE, Mystery Dungeon, Xenoblade DE, Pikmin 3 Deluxe, Bowser's Fury, BDSP, Scarlet Violet). And again, these are the games that also generally have framerate issues. I was also generous and included as many games as possible, even games where the computational powers of the Switch was not the reason the resolution isn't high (like Wii U ports where the resolution wasn't changed, or games like BDSP and Mystery Dungeon that just run the same in both modes).

(I didn't include games that have dynamic resolutions that could theoretically be really low but they are Splatoon 2, 3, Mario Odyssey and BotW docked, handheld they're fine.) Also didn't include XC3 because it runs at 1080p docked and 880p handheld after upscale, which is the effective resolution.

So at most 14/71. I'm not sure if that's acceptable to people or not, but to me that seems fine for a console 6 years into its life.

Also, this is from my experience/analyses on YT/dev talks, there could be games where there are bad framerates or resolutions I'm not aware of.
 
My favorite part (not here thankfully, on Twitter and other forums) is people having selective memory about how games perform. It's fine to want new hardware, I want new hardware too eventually (to see what kind of new games are possible and what new gimmicks we'll get), but claiming stuff like that even the first party games aren't 720p/1080p is funny.
I commend your effort but I have learned too late that people will just repeat things that 'sound right'. Generic statements like "indies run bad" without any elaboration that is totally at odds with real-world performance metrics. Yes the Switch is stretched thin and underpowered at this point. No we don't need to exaggerate how bad the performance is to get that point across. The most popular games like Mario Kart and Smash Bros run silky smooth so of course the performance isn't bad enough to dissuade the mass market, because some of the best-selling games don't even have 'bad' performance. I dislike the weirdly condescending and glib attitudes that "the mass market gives Nintendo a pass for performance" as if everyone were playing the exact same titles. Misinformation and hyperboles drag these discussions down and trying to correct it just ends up with folks moving the goalposts or being called a corporate bootlicker or whatever, as if I didn't want a more powerful Switch myself.
 
That article title is so hyperbolic. Also couldn’t you also put it as “Third party publishers have taken advantage of not needing to optimize to bloat their game size and make inefficient messes with tons of wasteful design choices”
 
What’s really wild to me, as someone who tends to actively participate in whatever community I tend to be part of, is that the simple act of actually being active with my posting seems to generate an unreasonable amount of pushback; it doesn’t matter where I am or what I’m posting, sooner or later, someone or the other will take umbrage at what they view as me posting excessively, either in general, or about some particular topics.

Kind of hoped this community would be better on that front but 🤷‍♂️

Anyway, yes, I agree with you. I love the Switch. I love Nintendo. I barely care for visuals and tech. I want a new Switch because the current one is clearly old, and the longer Nintendo takes to move on to their next system, the likelier the chance that third party support (integral to my enjoyment of the Switch) gets compromised as the industry moves on without Nintendo. Again.
These days we are all a little on edge. I think people realize that on the internet you can get a way with snark because its not face to face. And often times, a snarky “lol no” is much easier than saying “hey I hear your points, but these are the reasons i dissagree”. I some times fall into that trap to. But i agree, as a forum we should be better. Disagreement and conversations are great, snarky push back is really deflating.
 
Put it this way. Why announce a 24 month plan for Mario Kart 8 DLC if a Switch 2 was just around the corner (when it's taking away resources that could be put towards MK9)? Why release Splatoon 3 this year if it's only going to get a 6-12 months of additional content before the entire audience has to move to Switch 2? It's not a deal breaker I admit, and there are ways around it (an Octo-expansion type deal for Splatoon 3 on Switch 2 maybe), but it's very odd to have Nintendo commit to long term service games and additional content if they are gearing up for a new console launch imminently.
The idea behind why this might still work is in the aforementioned backward compatability. Splatoon 3 releases on current hardware to a large and active playerbase, and then it's also playable on the new hardware. Mario Kart 8 DLC entices sales and retention of NSO Expansion Paks and is also playable on new hardware (the question is what that might mean for new Mario Kart or the development team in general).

The idea is that a new console launch doesn't detract from these initiatives, as players don't have to choose between the content and the new hardware, and perhaps the new hardware even improves some of the content, enticing people to buy it as well.
 
The idea behind why this might still work is in the aforementioned backward compatability. Splatoon 3 releases on current hardware to a large and active playerbase, and then it's also playable on the new hardware. Mario Kart 8 DLC entices sales and retention of NSO Expansion Paks and is also playable on new hardware (the question is what that might mean for new Mario Kart or the development team in general).

The idea is that a new console launch doesn't detract from these initiatives, as players don't have to choose between the content and the new hardware, and perhaps the new hardware even improves some of the content, enticing people to buy it as well.
It for sure right now falls into the category of "this can be used to support either argument".

If you think Switch 2 is 2023, even early first half 2023, long dlc initiatives are a way to keep current customers happy on the cheap while the focus goes towards switch 2 development.

If you think Switch 2 is late 2023 or beyond, long dlc initiatives show Nintendo is in it for the long haul with Switch and plans to keep the Switch as the go to platform through the end of this dlc.
 
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I just wanted to chime in and say I don’t resent you nor your threads, so apologies if it comes off this way.

I do have a significant amount of fatigue with technology specifications as they relate to video games. I grew up in an era where most games ran poorly by modern standards, and those games were/are awesome. I don’t like modern games being boiled down to objective statistics, as if that has ever been the principal method of evaluating art.

I’m also broke, so, you know, a Switch 2 just means I’m going to be missing out.
 
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Oh, by the way, this is not an attack on you @Phantom Thief ! Hope you don't get me wrong 🐺

Yeah well this is

1671555946793.png
 
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Another article about wanting a next-gen Switch that doesn't bring up the Drake leak which is evidence of a new hardware upgrade using DLSS. Sigh.

Edit: I'll amend this saying it's possible they want to avoid legal issues due to the nature of the data breach.
Nintendo is intentionally sowing stories in the gamer press about how bad the Switch sucks now that they've sold a bunch of them so they can be hailed as visionaries with their finger on the gamers' pulse when they finally reveal that the Switch is on the same six-and-change year hardware cycle that their previous two handhelds were on. With the market convinced that their existing Switches are glorified toasters, Switch 2 shatters records and puts Sony and Microsoft out of business
 
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The idea behind why this might still work is in the aforementioned backward compatability. Splatoon 3 releases on current hardware to a large and active playerbase, and then it's also playable on the new hardware. Mario Kart 8 DLC entices sales and retention of NSO Expansion Paks and is also playable on new hardware (the question is what that might mean for new Mario Kart or the development team in general).

The idea is that a new console launch doesn't detract from these initiatives, as players don't have to choose between the content and the new hardware, and perhaps the new hardware even improves some of the content, enticing people to buy it as well.
Oh I have no doubt that Nintendo are planning a lot of cross gen upgrades and updates for existing games, no doubt they'll want to keep Splatoon 3 going and a graphical update pack for Zelda, Xenoblade etc could do wonders to entice early adopters. I also have no doubt their next console will be fully compatible with Switch games so it's not like these games will have a short shelf life.

It's more a question of how Nintendo are assigning their resources. Usually at the end of a console's life we'd see them begin to wind down on games which need long term support as they line up their ducks for a new launch. And yet we still have them releasing games which will have long term content provided for them as if nothing out of the ordinary is happening. Fire Emblem Engage has its own season pass for example.

On it's own it doesn't mean much, but I think if you combine it with how well the Switch is still selling, Nintendo's past comments and look forward to the year to come, I just don't see a company in a rush to get a new console out. That's all really. And if all goes according to plan for them, I'm not sure they need to release one yet either, at least not right now.
 
I mean I also think releasing after Tears of the Kingdom would be incredibly frustrating given what we know about Nintendo’s major first party titles. We won’t see another Zelda for 5+ years, and Zelda contributed an incredible amount to the success of Switch early on, seeing a greater than 1:1 attach rate on launch.

That said, if it happens of course there’d be some sound business reason behind it. Nintendo could be adopting the strategy we’ve seen a few times over now of re-releasing major titles on new platforms with enhancements and expecting core consumers to double dip*. I’d fucking hate the decision but a 2024 launch of a new system with a major visual update to TotK could certainly give the game a big sales boost.

Edit: * Pokémon did this a lot historically, no? And recently we have FFVIIR Intergrade. Anyway I hate my post.
 
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Oh I have no doubt that Nintendo are planning a lot of cross gen upgrades and updates for existing games, no doubt they'll want to keep Splatoon 3 going and a graphical update pack for Zelda, Xenoblade etc could do wonders to entice early adopters. I also have no doubt their next console will be fully compatible with Switch games so it's not like these games will have a short shelf life.

It's more a question of how Nintendo are assigning their resources. Usually at the end of a console's life we'd see them begin to wind down on games which need long term support as they line up their ducks for a new launch. And yet we still have them releasing games which will have long term content provided for them as if nothing out of the ordinary is happening. Fire Emblem Engage has its own season pass for example.

On it's own it doesn't mean much, but I think if you combine it with how well the Switch is still selling, Nintendo's past comments and look forward to the year to come, I just don't see a company in a rush to get a new console out. That's all really. And if all goes according to plan for them, I'm not sure they need to release one yet either, at least not right now.
Nintendo doesn't have any fallback any more. The absolute last thing they want to do is wind down their current hardware before releasing the next one. That would leave them very vulnerable.
 
The year is 2027.

The Switch 2 has been on the market for 3 years. Most 1st party and 3rd party games are running at full 1080p resolution and stable frame rates. Some can even run at 4K resolution.

Despite this, people on certain websites and forums are calling nearly every game “unplayable” because they don’t look and run as well as they would on the console that’s 3 times the size of the Switch 2 and more expensive. They complain that the Switch 2 is outdated hardware and that they need the Switch 2 pro immediately. This does not happen and the system sells like gangbusters for the following 3 years with no upgraded hardware in sight.

Additionally, Pokemon games continue to sell amazingly despite still looking like early PS3 games.
 
Nintendo doesn't have any fallback any more. The absolute last thing they want to do is wind down their current hardware before releasing the next one. That would leave them very vulnerable.

I’d been thinking about that most of this gen. Wii U titles have been filling out the release calendar since launch. The well is nearly dry, and Wii and GameCube titles unless remade will absolutely not feel the same as a native Switch release.

I’m interested to see how they fill out the calendar over the next few years. Improving third party support or collaborations could be an essential part of the strategy.
 
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My guess is Nintendo will have something ready by end of next year, but they're certainly not in any rush. I'm gonna bet though it won't meet a lot of people's hopes and expectations.
 
My guess is Nintendo will have something ready by end of next year, but they're certainly not in any rush. I'm gonna bet though it won't meet a lot of people's hopes and expectations.

For once, most of the hopes regarding the upcoming console are based on solid info rather than rumors and "insiders".
Hopium is certainly consumed in large quantities when talking about the release date, but we have a pretty clear idea of what the console should be when it releases 👍🏾
 
Honestly the more I think about it, the more certain I am that we won't see the Switch's successor in 2023. Even leaving aside the Zelda issue, they've got multiple DLCs and additional content to wrap up for Xenoblade, Mario Kart, Splatoon 3 and likely Pokemon, which a new console's launch would interrupt. We likely should have seen the writing on the wall when they announced Mario Kart 8 DLC will last for 24 months tbh.

I think Nintendo's huge start to the financial year will give the Switch one last big boost which could last well until next Christmas (especially if they have something Mario related in the pipeline). They've announced Pikmin 4 is coming this year and if they pepper their release schedule with enough smaller titles the momentum could last until March 2024, when they release Switch 2 seven years to the nose since the OG Switch released. Bosh, that's a pretty amazing financial year for Nintendo right there.
Well, they will kiss the core audience good bye then....
 
So I'd just like to point out that despite people stating how tired they are of these rumors and "whining" for better hardware, the "Future Nintendo Hardware Technology Speculation" thread is by far the most viewed thread on this forum. It has 3M views: 50% more views than the second most viewed (2M) and 200% more than the third (1M). You all want it too; just admit. Ain't no shame in doing so. Now where's my "you like Krabby Patties following new/pro Switch rumors, don't you Fami?" video?

 
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So I'd just like to point out that despite people stating how tired they are of these rumors and "whining" for better hardware, yet the "Future Nintendo Hardware Technology Speculation" thread is by far the most viewed thread on this forum. It has 3M views: 50% more views than the second most viewed (2M) and 200% more than the third (1M). You all want it too; just admit. Ain't no shame in doing so. Now where's my "you like Krabby Patties following new/pro Switch rumors, don't you Fami?" video?


As someone who has participated in that thread, this is a weird flex & doesn’t exactly prove what you think it does.
 
As someone who has participated in that thread, this is a weird flex & doesn’t exactly prove what you think it does.
I'm pointing out that the numbers tell a different, perhaps even contradictory story, one which I feel is aptly conveyed in the above clip. A juxtaposition. Not intended to be a "flex" of any sort. I mean, if people were so tired of it, why would they come here to comment on it? You're so tired of the conversation, discussion and back & forth rumors, that you come here to say something instead of ignoring it? If you truly didn't care or were sick of it, wouldn't you just roll your eyes and scroll past it? If bringing up the need for a new Switch is "whining", then what about the requests to ask people to stop bringing it up? I would say I'm not rubbing anything in anyone's face or bringing up how people are gonna eat crow next year. All I'm saying is: it goes both ways.

EDIT: All instances of "you" in the above reply are meant to be rhetorical, certainly not aimed at any one individual or the poster I replied to

Why would you say the Future Tech thread is far and away the most viewed thread on this forum?
 
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I mean I also think releasing after Tears of the Kingdom would be incredibly frustrating given what we know about Nintendo’s major first party titles. We won’t see another Zelda for 5+ years, and Zelda contributed an incredible amount to the success of Switch early on, seeing a greater than 1:1 attach rate on launch.
Zelda BotW (and TP for that matter) was a bit different though, you could either get it for the hot new system, or a dead one nobody but die hards owned. This Zelda's playable on a system that many already own though, I think the majority are gonna be happy just buying it for Switch. Something like that's nice to have if you're already planning to buy the system, I'm not sure if would be a great system seller though. Frankly the only way I'd see them using Zelda to push new hardware is if new games aren't gonna be exclusive to that new hardware, like say Xbox One X, PS4 Pro, or even Nintendo's own New 3DS to a extent. If it's a standalone system with its own exclusives though I frankly expect a true Switch 2 exclusive instead, like say a new 3D Mario.

Zelda could be apart of the stratagy sure, like showing off backward comparability, or maybe some sort of "Better on Switch 2" program where games the last year or two of the Switch get updates to take advantage of the new hardware. But I really don't buy the idea it would be what Nintendo use for the big push of the system.
 
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Disclaimer: everything that follows is just my opinion, not an attack on anyone.
With all due respect my dude, I believe that you are conflating your own expectations with the reality of Nintendo's business. The new consoles have been on the market for more than 2 years, yet the Switch will probably sell, without a revision, more than 15 millions machine next year. The huge install base and strong release schedule will also ensure some excellent software sales in 2023. Announcing the machine sometimes during late summer 2023 or even early autumn for a 2024 release would give them tons of momentum, and would also offer them the opportunity to clearly explain the positionning of both the new console and the old one, which could be supported for an additional 2 years.
There is at this point nothing indicating that Nintendo plans to release a new console for the next 10-12 months, except a lot of wishful thinking and unverfied hearsays, so it is fair to assume that their strategy was always to have a 7-ish years long cycle if nothing happens by next summer. I assume that such decision was made around 2020, when it was clear that the Switch was not a new Wii and that it wouldn't abruptly lose momentum if it was properly supported. I think it's a smart strategy by Nintendo, even when factoring third parties and especially considering that this generation will last longer than the previous ones and the Series S will probably not be dropped until 2029-ish.
So I get all of this, but why does a new Switch or Switch Pro have to mean that it won't launch on OG Switch and fracture the base? They did it for the failed Wii U. They can easily just keep it on OG running at 900p/30fps, and the new one at perhaps 1080p/4k/30fps (if we're incredibly lucky, 60fps). The Switch will sell, but it still does with the OLED there. I don't see why a Pro would fracture the base if OLED and Switch Lite haven't. If you like the power, spend that $450 or whathaveyou. If not, stick with OG Switch or OLED for TotK.

I all do not expect this to happen, I just don't see why it would hurt the OG install base. Then again, I said I am missing something, and this is also why I don't run a business and why I don't trade stocks, money-based decisions are not my thing haha. I would run any business into the ground with child-like sales tactics and expectations. Maybe I should listen to my 2 year old, she tells me wise things like "GO TO SLEEP DADDY".
 
I'm pointing out that the numbers tell a different, perhaps even contradictory story, one which I feel is aptly conveyed in the above clip. A juxtaposition. Not intended to be a "flex" of any sort. I mean, if people were so tired of it, why would they come here to comment on it? You're so tired of the conversation, discussion and back & forth rumors, that you come here to say something instead of ignoring it? If you truly didn't care or were sick of it, wouldn't you just roll your eyes and scroll past it? If bringing up the need for a new Switch is "whining", then what about the requests to ask people to stop bringing it up? I would say I'm not rubbing anything in anyone's face or bringing up how people are gonna eat crow next year. All I'm saying is: it goes both ways.

Why would you say the Future Tech thread is far and away the most viewed thread on this forum?
So first of all I never said anything about being tired about the conversation so don’t be putting words in my mouth. I responded because I didn’t feel this was a “Fail of 2022.”

Second of all that data needs to be parsed more to understand the true impact of what your suggesting. Is it the most viewed? Yes. However, the juxtaposition is a very shallow one.

Third people have given valid reasons why they may be tired of it or refer to it as “whining.” If it bothers people that much they can ask the others to stop but they never do. They can’t ignore & scroll past because it appears everywhere for them. Like there is a reason a whole thread is dedicated to it.

You claim you aren’t “rubbing people’s nose” or “asking to eating crow” but the post comes off as very self-congratulatory & smug.
 
So first of all I never said anything about being tired about the conversation so don’t be putting words in my mouth. I responded because I didn’t feel this was a “Fail of 2022.”

Second of all that data needs to be parsed more to understand the true impact of what your suggesting. Is it the most viewed? Yes. However, the juxtaposition is a very shallow one.

Third people have given valid reasons why they may be tired of it or refer to it as “whining.” If it bothers people that much they can ask the others to stop but they never do. They can’t ignore & scroll past because it appears everywhere for them. Like there is a reason a whole thread is dedicated to it.

You claim you aren’t “rubbing people’s nose” or “asking to eating crow” but the post comes off as very self-congratulatory & smug.
I apologize if I suggested that you specifically were tired of new Switch posts. I claimed that "people" were doing it. In reality, I didn't want to go through the effort of quoting all the posts, but also because it isn't a unique sentiment to the thread or even forum.

With regards to the data, I didn't claim to delve into a deep analysis of the data, but I do think the 1M view difference between the top three most viewed threads on the forum is significant. Is it shallow? I would say it's simple, yet effective. A 100% difference between them. In fact, all three of the threads are speculation-related, so there is actually a common theme. I mean, the next non-speculation thread is the XBC3 ST at 300K views! I'm just saying the numbers tell a different story. Yes there are those tired of it, but there are equally, if not more, people interested in discussing it. If someone makes a dedicated thread on a question or article, is it fair for the people that are supposedly "tired" to enter the thread and ask them to stop? They're not doing anything wrong and it's simple enough to click on the "ignore" button, I think.

And I agree that people are within their right to voice their complaints and reasons for why they don't like the thread...but I find it odd that they're going out of their way to enter it. I mean, isn't odd that you'd be tired of it, yet still engage in the discussion? In fact, to have been tired of the discussion in the first place would generally mean one was following it up to that point. Is there likely some frustration resulting from disappointment? Sure, but my point was that even the people saying they're tired of the Pro posts are usually some of the first to comment. High and rapid engagement, one might say.

On the other hand, while people have every right to ask people to stop, the people posting or asking about the next Switch also have every right to refuse...or even ignore them. And I don't think it would be all that rude considering this is a forum meant to facilitate and encourage debate, discussion, questions, polls, etc. When would be the right time to ask or post about the next Switch hardware or relay one's desires for it? Should they have to ask the tired side for permission or have a waiting period between posts? What is that line?

And I do admit, there is a bit of smugness and it mostly comes from the fact that I feel like the hardware speculators seem to be treated like the villains or the bad guys. There are times when I am scared to bring up my desire or wishes for new hardware outside the HW speculation thread. I worry that I'll ask to stop or upset people. But if it's fair for people to say they're tired of all these posts, isn't also fair for others to say they're tired the blowback as well?

It's also a result of various posters coming into the HW speculation thread and treating us like we're doomsdayers. "You said it was gonna happen last year! And the year before that! If you keep saying it, well of course it's going to happen eventually!" It almost feels like there's a preference that Nintendo maintains this "unpredictable god" image, where no one can predict what they'll do and you're a fool if you try. When in reality, the people in the HW ST would argue that there is a rhyme to the reason and that there are patterns, history, trends, and general rules that Nintendo follows leading up to hardware launches.

I would say that Nintendo's hardware cycles are not random and that given that it's about to be 6 years since the launch of the Switch, it's entirely normal for speculation and desires for a next-gen Nintendo Switch to ramp up (especially given that we didn't get a "new" mid-gen revision- like the FDS, GBC, DSi, expansion pak, 64DD, Motion Plus, or new 3DS).
 
I agree that I think we hear/see new hardware in 2023, what I don't think is that we're going to have "new console reveal -> release to store shelves" between January and May for TotK like some people are having maximum hopium for. I feel a lot of people are setting themselves up to be disappointed and burned.

My guess is the timeline will be something like this

Jan-Mar: Normal Nintendo Direct showing off the rest of the 2023 line up

Apr: TotK Direct

Jun: E3/Summer Direct with hardware reveal and big launch exclusive reveal, next major Mario game inspired by the film

Nov: Next Switch launch with this Mario game
That’s exactly my impression. New hardware between September and November.

If it is switch 2, November. If it is switch pro, September.

I actually would love to see what the japanese journalists expects from 2023. If they say they don’t see new hardware coming, I’ll be even more bullish about new hardware.
 
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I apologize if I suggested that you specifically were tired of new Switch posts. I claimed that "people" were doing it. In reality, I didn't want to go through the effort of quoting all the posts, but also because it isn't a unique sentiment to the thread or even forum.

With regards to the data, I didn't claim to delve into a deep analysis of the data, but I do think the 1M view difference between the top three most viewed threads on the forum is significant. Is it shallow? I would say it's simple, yet effective. A 100% difference between them. In fact, all three of the threads are speculation-related, so there is actually a common theme. I mean, the next non-speculation thread is the XBC3 ST at 300K views! I'm just saying the numbers tell a different story. Yes there are those tired of it, but there are equally, if not more, people interested in discussing it. If someone makes a dedicated thread on a question or article, is it fair for the people that are supposedly "tired" to enter the thread and ask them to stop? They're not doing anything wrong and it's simple enough to click on the "ignore" button, I think.

And I agree that people are within their right to voice their complaints and reasons for why they don't like the thread...but I find it odd that they're going out of their way to enter it. I mean, isn't odd that you'd be tired of it, yet still engage in the discussion? In fact, to have been tired of the discussion in the first place would generally mean one was following it up to that point. Is there likely some frustration resulting from disappointment? Sure, but my point was that even the people saying they're tired of the Pro posts are usually some of the first to comment. High and rapid engagement, one might say.

On the other hand, while people have every right to ask people to stop, the people posting or asking about the next Switch also have every right to refuse...or even ignore them. And I don't think it would be all that rude considering this is a forum meant to facilitate and encourage debate, discussion, questions, polls, etc. When would be the right time to ask or post about the next Switch hardware or relay one's desires for it? Should they have to ask the tired side for permission or have a waiting period between posts? What is that line?

And I do admit, there is a bit of smugness and it mostly comes from the fact that I feel like the hardware speculators seem to be treated like the villains or the bad guys. There are times when I am scared to bring up my desire or wishes for new hardware outside the HW speculation thread. I worry that I'll ask to stop or upset people. But if it's fair for people to say they're tired of all these posts, isn't also fair for others to say they're tired the blowback as well?

It's also a result of various posters coming into the HW speculation thread and treating us like we're doomsdayers. "You said it was gonna happen last year! And the year before that! If you keep saying it, well of course it's going to happen eventually!" It almost feels like there's a preference that Nintendo maintains this "unpredictable god" image, where no one can predict what they'll do and you're a fool if you try. When in reality, the people in the HW ST would argue that there is a rhyme to the reason and that there are patterns, history, trends, and general rules that Nintendo follows leading up to hardware launches.

I would say that Nintendo's hardware cycles are not random and that given that it's about to be 6 years since the launch of the Switch, it's entirely normal for speculation and desires for a next-gen Nintendo Switch to ramp up (especially given that we didn't get a "new" mid-gen revision- like the FDS, GBC, DSi, expansion pak, 64DD, Motion Plus, or new 3DS).
Sure I understand that since it can be a pain to quote that many people. And, we’ve seen in plenty of topics before not related to hardware where people are exasperated about certain topics continually popping up not matter what.

I’m not saying that do a deep dive just that the information has to be parsed more for better understanding. While that 3mil can provide a point, I think it a deceptive number to use in a comparison. I just think there are too many factors to consider for it to be worthwhile.

There’s a time & place for either response really. You don’t have to ask permission just gotta know how to read the room one might say. That goes for people engaging in a topic they claim are tired with. It’s hard though on certain topics because you don’t expect it to turn out that way. Take this one for instance which is just masquerading as a Switch 2 article with not a whole lot of newness to it.

Tbf a lot of that can be chalked up to, what I consider, bad reporting from games press. They’ve even eased up on it because they went way too hard, way too fast with Switch 2 talk. They also help perpetuate myths way more then they should. I watch SpawnWave for instance & he still throws around the “Nintendo gonna Nintendo” unironically in quite a few segments.

I can get it can be frustrating. I’ve had to ignore multiple Pokémon/XC2/Post-Awakening FE/PM threads at times which is annoying.
 
Nintendo learned that their core fans will buy up the consoles regardless of when it's released; what good does it do for enthusiasts when they're now fighting with parents during Black Friday sales trying to secure one for their kids as a gift for the holidays? It's gonna be extremely difficult to get one regardless of the time of year, but it doesn't mean more money for Nintendo if they can't supply enough consoles to satisfy demand

It's why myself and many others hope/expect a Spring release for new hardware. It worked wonders for the Switch in 2017; seems to be a logical first step if they want to recreate the same success for this new system
 
So I get all of this, but why does a new Switch or Switch Pro have to mean that it won't launch on OG Switch and fracture the base? They did it for the failed Wii U. They can easily just keep it on OG running at 900p/30fps, and the new one at perhaps 1080p/4k/30fps (if we're incredibly lucky, 60fps). The Switch will sell, but it still does with the OLED there. I don't see why a Pro would fracture the base if OLED and Switch Lite haven't. If you like the power, spend that $450 or whathaveyou. If not, stick with OG Switch or OLED for TotK.

I all do not expect this to happen, I just don't see why it would hurt the OG install base. Then again, I said I am missing something, and this is also why I don't run a business and why I don't trade stocks, money-based decisions are not my thing haha. I would run any business into the ground with child-like sales tactics and expectations. Maybe I should listen to my 2 year old, she tells me wise things like "GO TO SLEEP DADDY".

I don't think it would fracture the base. I think however that Nintendo just don't need a new console yet, and they probably anticipated that when they chose the release date of their new system. I'm expecting 2024, or at best the end of 2023. If it comes earlier, I'll just be pleasantly surprised.
 
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Fails of 2022: the Nintendo Switch really showed its age
It's a console in its sixth year so it's obvious it shows its age however Switch's hardware sales decline rate is much better than PS4 in the same timeframe.
If the Switch get a successor after the same time PS4 got one then the next Nintendo console would launch in March 2024.

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The year is 2027.

The Switch 2 has been on the market for 3 years. Most 1st party and 3rd party games are running at full 1080p resolution and stable frame rates. Some can even run at 4K resolution.

Despite this, people on certain websites and forums are calling nearly every game “unplayable” because they don’t look and run as well as they would on the console that’s 3 times the size of the Switch 2 and more expensive. They complain that the Switch 2 is outdated hardware and that they need the Switch 2 pro immediately. This does not happen and the system sells like gangbusters for the following 3 years with no upgraded hardware in sight.

Additionally, Pokemon games continue to sell amazingly despite still looking like early PS3 games.
I’m sorry but I’ve seen this argument multiple times and it’s really stupid to me.
Switch 2 will surely allow for enough graphical fidelity, performance and resolutions for many years so only few people who don’t know what they’re talking about would complain.
There’s a reason PS4 games are still released and run great even in 2022, the problem with current Switch is that it doesn’t even reach those standards so current technical complains are very legitimate.
Switch 2 situation should be very different imo, so imagining that we’ll see the same scenario even after 5/6 years doesn’t really make sense.
 
We will know in the coming months if Drake is coming out around/before may depending on what Nintendo announces in the first Direct.

If it’s pretty “weak” and by that they just announce AA games for the first 6 months then I don’t think Drake is out until November 2023 or early 2024
 


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