This is a pretty sensible guess, really. To add detail to this:
- EPD 8
They have two games in development and haven't been the primary developer of an original game since 2017 (Super Mario Odyssey). Their 3D game issued a hiring call in October 2019, and a 2D project issued a hiring call in August 2020. Both of these games should be candidates for the cross-gen period/new hardware. EPD 8 did port 3D World, produce/co-develop Bowser's Fury (with NST & 1-UP), and produce 3D All-Stars (with NERD & iQue), but all of these projects were small in scope. They moved to new larger offices in either 2019 or 2020, so may have expanded as a group; their 3D title is presumably Super Mario and is presumably co-developed with 1-UP Studio (and perhaps NST have a supporting role, though they've been busy with 2 projects since Bowser's Fury). A possible shift to the shared ModuleSystem game engine (used in Splatoon 3, Switch Sports and Tears of the Kingdom) might also explain the prolonged absence from EPD 8 as they expanded, reorganised, and familiarised themselves with new tools instead of continuing with their own custom engine. The 2D title is unknown, but rumours pointed to DK. I'd say the 3D title is a year one candidate for next-gen and the 2D game follows in 2025/year two.
- EPD 9
They haven't led development on a new game since 2017, and their exact role with Mario Kart Tour (2019) is difficult to parse given an absence of credits for the game as well as the previous existence of an EPD smart devices group. EPD 9 did serve as producer for Mario Kart Live, where primary development was handled by Velan Studios, and presumably they at least produced the DLC for 8 DX though again, an absence of credits makes the exact development arrangements difficult to ascertain. However, EPD 9 are in much the same situation as EPD 8, whereby it's been a fair period of time (at least four years) since they last shipped a major product and therefore, given Mario Kart's importance, you'd expect EPD 9 to be a year one candidate for next-gen.
- EPD 4
They haven't been as 'absent' as long as the two other groups, but they have been very prolific on Switch. They led development on 1-2 Switch (2017), Labo (2018-19), Ring Fit Adventure (2019), Game Builder Garage (2021) and Switch Sports (2022), and also served as the producer for Brain Training (2019 with indieszero), Big Brain Academy (2021 with indieszero), Miitopia (2021 with Grezzo) and Everybody 1-2 Switch (2023, with NdCube). Given how prolific they are, and given Everybody 1-2 Switch was eventually handed over to NdCube and Switch Sports updates have stopped, I'd assume EPD 4 are all hands on deck to get projects out on new hardware as soon as possible. I'd consider them a strong candidate for new IP in year one and a Ring Fit Adventure follow up in year two or three.
- EPD 5
I had actually thought they're slightly less likely to turn up just as soon as the three groups listed above, but when you stop and look at their output they've shipped a major product on a near-annual basis on Switch (Splatoon 2, 2017; Octo Expansion 2018, Animal Crossing 2020; Happy Home Paradise 2021; Splatoon 3 2022; Side Order 2024). Animal Crossing is enormously more popular now than it ever has been, and, incoming Lego aside, it's bizarre to me that Nintendo are yet to try and capitalise on that popularity with either a spin-off, remake, or a similar style franchise (Tomodachis of the world, unite). I'd peg EPD 5 as a potential 2025 title and it could well be the next mainline Animal Crossing coming at an earlier point in the next generation than it managed on Switch. Not unprecedented at all; Animal Crossing launched towards the end of 3DS's second year in Japan (2012) and the end of the DS's first year in Japan and North America (2005).
- EPD 7
The future of Tomodachi is up in the air in terms of who actually handles the next title, and it's possible this has become an EPD 4 property. It's also unclear if EPD 7 are still internal plus external development, or have shifted over entirely to being an external group. That uncertainty being the case, I'd say the safest bet for the next EPD 7 title is Metroid 6, with MercurySteam, probably launching in 2025. Perhaps Nintendo and EPD 7 spring a cross-gen Tomodachi title from somewhere, because I think at least some key staff for that game have been inactive for a while, but I'm not sure that's a safe bet.
- EPD 10
Having just shipped Pikmin 4 (with Eighting) and now shipping Super Mario Bros Wonder, you'd have to assume it's 3 to 4 years before we see more from this group. Given the success of Pikmin 4 and the development support provided by Eighting, we may well see Pikmin 5 before we see the next Super Mario Bros.
- EPD 3
Difficult to judge. I suspect we'll at least see EPD 3 turn up in a producing capacity in the next couple of years; Wind Waker or Twilight Princess provide easy port fodder as a late Switch/early next-gen filler title; Grezzo might turn out a remake of an older 2D Zelda; a third Hyrule Warriors feels inevitable given the success of Age of Calamity. The real question is whether Aonuma's ambition to retool 2D/'portable' Zelda comes to fruition, and whether any younger minds at EPD have been given the chance to take charge of that series. Aonuma's 2017 comments pointed to a future for that sub-series, and though I expect co-development would have to happen, I do expect EPD 3 to take firm control if they are making new 2D Zelda. Absent new 2D Zelda, expect the legendary franchise to be limited to re-releases and spin-offs for the next 4 to 6 years.
I was gonna run through likely subsidiaries, but this is already a wall of text...
