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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST5| Uncharted Territory: Drake's Deception

When is the next general full-length Direct?

  • June

    Votes: 130 38.0%

  • July

    Votes: 40 11.7%

  • August

    Votes: 15 4.4%

  • September

    Votes: 129 37.7%

  • October

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • November

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • December

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • January

    Votes: 13 3.8%

  • February

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • Never

    Votes: 11 3.2%
  • Total voters
    342
  • Poll closed .
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Given the current situation, a Pikmin direct ahead of that release makes sense, but otherwise penciling in nothing other than September feels like the safest expectation. Perhaps they move up their normal September direct to be right ahead of Gamescom, but I wouldn't bet on it either.
Gengar said:
People have asked before, and I'll ask it again: is there any good reason to frontload H1 so much and leave barely anything for H2? If they were really running out of games to release this year, they would have spaced out releases a bit more in the first place, right?

That's why I'm confident we will get more news before Pikmin 4 comes out. June would be preferable so that they could spend more time in July promoting Pikmin 4. There's 5 months this year that are unaccounted for. I wouldn't be surprised if August and December have no releases, but there's a lot they can fit in between September-November. Throw in some DLC updates and announcements, then maybe one 2024 game, and suddenly you have more than enough content for a June direct. Then, in September, they could clarify release dates if needed and start talking about H1 2024.
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One possible reason that sticks out to me is that Nintendo was stuffing the box for the end of their FY to ensure that they hit their financial goals. Particularly with bringing back the voucher program in NA, they aligned that with a bigger than normal software slate to get people buying.
 
Instro said:
Given the current situation, a Pikmin direct ahead of that release makes sense, but otherwise penciling in nothing other than September feels like the safest expectation. Perhaps they move up their normal September direct to be right ahead of Gamescom, but I wouldn't bet on it either.

One possible reason that sticks out to me is that Nintendo was stuffing the box for the end of their FY to ensure that they hit their financial goals. Particularly with bringing back the voucher program in NA, they aligned that with a bigger than normal software slate to get people buying.
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Since when is "Nintendo spends ~2 months with no dated games" the safe option?
 
Derachi said:
tbh Pikmin 4 should get a 15 minute video of Aonuma playing it, while saying stuff like “I didn’t work on this, what am I doing here?”
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Aonuma tried to fuse two Pikmin together and they both just die, he turns to Miyamoto and says "this game is dogshit bro"
 
You now start with a blank base pikmin. Turn it into variants by fusing it with rocks, ice, chuchu jelly, etc. Ultrahand them together to make a bridge. Use ascend to exit the cave systems
 
The worst scenario we can have for June is not having any kind of Direct, given the absence of leaks (this for the General Direct or for Partner Showcase) and the possibility that the Pikmin 4 presentation is just a simple gameplay video like the ToTK presentation and/or a trailer.

That's why I think we might only have a General Direct in September, after the event in Seattle.
 
BassForever said:
You didn't answer the question of "why not do a better job of spreading out the H1 content through H2 if they have nothing". We all believe a good chunk of Nintendo's teams are likely working on content for the Switch successor which is why there are "no major games after TotK". That doesn't explain why they didn't space out Engage, Prime Remaster, Dreamland Deluxe, Origins, Reboot Camp, Fell Xenologue, Future Redeemed, and Tears of the Kingdom. Nintendo pushed out the next Kirby and Bayonetta game less then a year after the prior one, both titles could have easily been H2 2023 games if H2 2023 is actually barren.
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Because Nintendo's marketing strategy is frequently illogical. They probably believe TOTK is large enough to carry console sales the rest of the year that they don't need perfect release pacing.

Release pacing comes down to a lot of different factors too, not solely marketing.
 
Pokemaniac said:
Since when is "Nintendo spends ~2 months with no dated games" the safe option?
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Well given that Nintendo has increasingly focused on February and September as their main general directs, in large part due to COVID and E3 disappearing, it seems reasonable to guess in the current situation that they will just aim for September, and skip anything else beyond required marketing for Pikmin and 3rd parties. Pikmin releases at the end of July, so it wouldn't exactly be a huge stretch of time to wait.
 
I am tired of people saying, no Direct because no rumors. This has nothing to do with rumors or leaks, you have to believe yourself. That's it.
 
Could be no Direct in June, we get a gameplay breakdown of Pikmin 4 tail end of June on Twitter.
July we get a Twitter drop of FZero GX HD coming end of August.
Full Direct early September which will give us 2 more big games for Oct and Nov (one remaster and one new game)

DLC sprinkled throughout the rest of the year for MK/Splat3/Pokémon
 
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Derachi said:
tbh Pikmin 4 should get a 15 minute video of Aonuma playing it, while saying stuff like “I didn’t work on this, what am I doing here?”
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Reminds me of first 3DS breakdown before the launch of the system where Iwata, Miyamoto and Shigesato Itoi sat down and talk about it. Itoi was like, "dude i ain't making any games for this system, why did you call me for".

It was actually pretty wholesome. Just three good friends talking about the new product. And reminiscing about past and their old boss.
 
MrBones said:
Because Nintendo's marketing strategy is frequently illogical. They probably believe TOTK is large enough to carry console sales the rest of the year that they don't need perfect release pacing.

Release pacing comes down to a lot of different factors too, not solely marketing.
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Not really no. Since the Switch era they have consistently spaced releases to avoid huge gaps. Even in 2020, they didn't have three months pass without a game.
 
Instro said:
Well given that Nintendo has increasingly focused on February and September as their main general directs, in large part due to COVID and E3 disappearing, it seems reasonable to guess in the current situation that they will just aim for September, and skip anything else beyond required marketing for Pikmin and 3rd parties. Pikmin releases at the end of July, so it wouldn't exactly be a huge stretch of time to wait.
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That's a lot to read into two weird years, neither of which particularly resemble the current one in relevant ways. 2020 was 2020, and summer was pretty squarely in the maximally disruptive COVID blast zone. 2022 is closer, but there's a couple pretty key differences in that Nintendo affirmatively decided to not do E3 this year, rather than the event getting cancelled, and in 2022, their entire fall lineup was announced well before this point. Two months is a very long time to go without dated releases, especially when there's a trade show Nintendo's attending in the middle of it where they typically demo upcoming games.

Like I've said, Nintendo's schedule this year makes no sense without some sort of summer presentation.
 
The date is July 21st. Pikmin 4, the highly anticipated title that Nintendo fans have been clamoring for is finally released.

"ok but where are the dated games" Nintendo fans ask.

"nintendo is dead" they proclaim. "nintendo falcon punched my heart" they say with tears running down their faces.

Nintendo goes bankrupt and all Nintendo Switches burst into flames as Miyamoto buys Twitter Blue to tweet the entire Mario movie.

September comes around, a mysterious video appears on Nintendo's youtube channel

"Another Development Update on Metroid Prime 4 for Nintendo Switch"
 
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Dardan Sandiego said:
Hello everyone. I'm Shinya Takahashi, and I'm responsible for development at Nintendo. Thank you so much for playing Nintendo games.

I wanted to speak with you today to give you an update on your backlog that you've been building since March 2017.

We deeply understand the high anticipation that Nintendo fans have for new Nintendo games. We have felt it especially from the passionate words from fans we heard when it became clear that we wouldn't have a Nintendo Direct in June. Ever since you pre-ordered the The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom game despite having two games still shrinkwrapped, we've been wanting to give you an update.

As a result of your continued failure to play the games you bought at launch for the full price - although this is very regrettable - we have to let you know that your current backlog progress has not reached the standards we expect from Nintendo fans.

Nintendo always strives for the highest quality in our games and we expect our fans to honour that work by playing our games. If we're not satisfied with our customer's progress, we aren't able to deliver new games that will live up to their expectations.

From this perspective, we have determined that the current state of Nintendo announcements is appropriate and we had to make the difficult decision as a publisher. We have decided to reexamine our announcement schedule itself and change it. Specifically, we have decided to not announce any new games until our customers' backlog progress has reached a level that meets our expectations.

We did not make this decision lightly.

This will essentially mean no new game announcements, so their releases will be delayed from our initial internal plans.

We strongly recognize that this will come as a disappointment to the many Nintendo fans who have been looking forward to the next Nintendo Direct. I'd like to extend my deepest, heart-felt apologies to everyone. It will be a long road until he next time we will be able to update you in a new Nintendo Direct. However, we will continue developing games so that when you have finished your backlog, we will be able to show them to you.

On behalf of Nintendo, I sincerely appreciate your understanding. Thank you very much.

mp4ulckb.png
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This is still best post in this thread and noone can change my mind.
 
stodesign12 said:
Agree with everything except the first part, it probably means a lot.
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I think typically he's either left them out or said something like "Nintendo wildcard" or whatever to that effect haha. That's why I said it means nothing. He also seems less comfortable talking about what he's "heard" on Nintendo because of Metroid Prime Remastered and the Zelda HD ports lol.
 
touchfuzzy said:
We're in weird times right now -- Sony first party is now going on 7 months with no dated games, and they just had a big showcase with again no release dates revealed, so no end in sight.
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Comparing Sony to Nintendo is just not wise. Look at all of the games that have been coming out this year. Final Fantasy 16 is coming too. They have 3rd party devs right covering their gaps and it seems that gamers prefer 3rd party games on PS5 than XBX.
 
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I finally clicked on this thread, started reading... Yeah I'm not ready for this. I appreciate what you all do, and will be rooting for ya Team June. But I'm good for now.

See you all in the official announcement thread or after I complete ToTK, Diablo 4, FF 16, and Pikmin 4.

Let's hope for the sanity of Famiboard it's the former and not the latter.
 
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entut1 said:
Not really no. Since the Switch era they have consistently spaced releases to avoid huge gaps. Even in 2020, they didn't have three months pass without a game.
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And every prior generational transition has resulted in software droughts in the lead up to the next console. That fact, combined with Nintendo's more limited software output this gen, makes an empty H2 totally realistic
 
Honestly, this has been a great year for Nintendo even if they don't launch anything else: Fire Emblem, Metroid, Kirby, Advance Wars, Zelda, Pikmin, Pokémon and Xenoblade expansions, plus third party games.

Personally I don't care if they don't have games for H2, I just want the announcement of new hardware. I know what's the best they can achieve with the Switch thanks to TotK, now I want to see what's next.
 
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LonkFromPA said:
Twitter direct starts tomorrow with the announcement of Paper Mario TTYD coming in September.
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If we do get a Twitter Direct in the next few weeks, I don't expect to see anything releasing in the autumn. Not yet. That can wait until July or August.
 
Hocot8 said:
Means nothing. Those are things he feels comfortable about. He's said that he hasn't really heard anything but speculated that they may just be doing some small things here and there. Which is the same thing he said would happen last year. He's probably going to speak on this more this week or next week with all of these events coming up.
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Should probably be noted that he made the distinction that last year he had actual info to back that up. This year he has nothing so far, just guessing.
 
touchfuzzy said:
We're in weird times right now -- Sony first party is now going on 7 months with no dated games, and they just had a big showcase with again no release dates revealed, so no end in sight.
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Sony has perhaps their highest selling game targeting end of this year with Spider-Man 2 and Final Fantasy XVI launching in a month. Diablo IV, Street Fighter 6 are right here, and almost every other major third party title hits the platform, unlike Switch.

Sony isn’t in a weird position. They’ve made a history of reliance on third parties, and while their showcase wasn’t great from first party exclusive perspective, it was pretty packed.

Nintendo has an extremely niche Pikmin 4 coming, and basically nothing else in the near term first or third party. Metroid Prime 4 is the only game left, and if other Metroid games are any indication, that’s about as niche as Pikmin. Nintendo’s situation may not be dire, but it definitely feels off to me. Especially so if new hardware isn’t until late next year as many are starting to speculate. I would have thought they’d try to have much stronger momentum going into a new generation, but even Tears isn’t going to prevent things from dropping off given another 18 months.

Edit: And on the subject of Tears, if we believe in earnest that 2022 was the target date, then things might feel even stranger right now.
 
Going into June and I miss E3 days of old. It was so nice going into the month knowing news was going to happen, I also took a couple days off work and just enjoyed the time. The announcements were not always great but I enjoyed having a date circled to look forward to.
 
Soralink91 said:
Going into June and I miss E3 days of old. It was so nice going into the month knowing news was going to happen, I also took a couple days off work and just enjoyed the time. The announcements were not always great but I enjoyed having a date circled to look forward to.
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Yup, agreed completely. This current environment is complete and utter dogshit in comparison.
 
MrBones said:
And every prior generational transition has resulted in software droughts in the lead up to the next console. That fact, combined with Nintendo's more limited software output this gen, makes an empty H2 totally realistic
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The only reason that seems off to me is if that were true, why pack H1 so much? They could easily have saved Metroid Prime, Fire Emblem Engage DLC, or XC3 DLC to plug a big empty gap. Especially since those all came out sooner than most people expected
 
I’m starting to get excited within the next 3.5 weeks we should be getting some Nintendo news in some format. It is kind of interesting some of the bigger third party games floating have been dated recently to the extent September is looking pretty solid for Switch. But there are games floating out there still I think seem like decent candidates for Directs appearances and reappearances including the Level 5 games (Layton, Deca Police, Fantasy Life), the Marvelous games (Daemon X Machina 2 and Rune Factory especially), Baiten Katos, Dragon Quest 3 HD 2D, and Dragon Quest Monsters. Lot of potential for a good Direct there alongside some new announcements from Square and Capcom especially.
 
SammyJ9 said:
The only reason that seems off to me is if that were true, why pack H1 so much? They could easily have saved Metroid Prime, Fire Emblem Engage DLC, or XC3 DLC to plug a big empty gap. Especially since those all came out sooner than most people expected
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IS and Monolith operate more independently in regards to DLC it appears.

Prime 1R who the fuck knows. They sat on it for almost 2 years, clearly someone had some brilliant esoteric marketing strategy for it.
 
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Soralink91 said:
Going into June and I miss E3 days of old. It was so nice going into the month knowing news was going to happen, I also took a couple days off work and just enjoyed the time. The announcements were not always great but I enjoyed having a date circled to look forward to.
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Yup, I'd always look forward to the weather heating up and gaming announcements heating up at the same time, plus the Giant Bomb crew and their incredible coverage, from Jeff's drive down to LA and their nightly shows. Good times.
 
xghost777 said:
I’m starting to get excited within the next 3.5 weeks we should be getting some Nintendo news in some format. It is kind of interesting some of the bigger third party games floating have been dated recently to the extent September is looking pretty solid for Switch. But there are games floating out there still I think seem like decent candidates for Directs appearances and reappearances including the Level 5 games (Layton, Deca Police, Fantasy Life), the Marvelous games (Daemon X Machina 2 and Rune Factory especially), Baiten Katos, Dragon Quest 3 HD 2D, and Dragon Quest Monsters. Lot of potential for a good Direct there alongside some new announcements from Square and Capcom especially.
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I too expect a full reveal of Marvelous's recently revealed games. Those title only reveals might suggest the full reveals can't be far away. That DXM sequel will definitely be at a Direct, my money is one this month's.

Aside from FF16 and Infinity Strash, Square is unusually silent. Just like Nintendo, they hate to have gaps in their schedule and fill big ones with remasters etc. They probably internally dated FF Tactics Remaster sometime this fall, good candidate for their big Direct reveal this month.
 
9-Volt said:
Aside from FF16 and Infinity Strash, Square is unusually silent. Just like Nintendo, they hate to have gaps in their schedule and fill big ones with remasters etc. They probably internally dated FF Tactics Remaster sometime this fall, good candidate for their big Direct reveal this month.
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u member nate talking about an ff9 remake in his last direct predictions video? i member
 
theguy said:
u member nate talking about an ff9 remake in his last direct predictions video? i member
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I forget who it was, but I believe someone of decent reputation recently said to forget about the FF9 remake for a while. So maybe 2024 for that?
 
xghost777 said:
I forget who it was, but I believe someone of decent reputation recently said to forget about the FF9 remake for a while. So maybe 2024 for that?
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oh man, that’s sad news. tbf he did say that he would only talk about things he knew wouldn’t be in a direct at the time so he may just have known about it way in advance
 
Instro said:
Should probably be noted that he made the distinction that last year he had actual info to back that up. This year he has nothing so far, just guessing.
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Well he'll be asked about it on his podcast with Minotti I'm sure. So we'll see if that changes haha
 
karmitt said:
Edit: And on the subject of Tears, if we believe in earnest that 2022 was the target date, then things might feel even stranger right now.
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psssssh
Nintendo's 1st party output is mediocre and low this gen
 
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I think we'll have something announced for after Pikmin by Pikmin's release, but I think we're either getting that in the form of a relatively underwhelming direct or a Twitter drop or two.
 
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Hocot8 said:
Well he'll be asked about it on his podcast with Minotti I'm sure. So we'll see if that changes haha
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And on the topic of this; Grubb said he believes Nintendo may not do something "big" during this period. He thinks they'll do something but I'm guessing he's not thinking general direct. I also want to add that he did NOT say he heard anything yet. Seemed like speculation.
 
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