StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST5| Uncharted Territory: Drake's Deception

[Cucufate]

probably a bit of a hot take but personally i've always viewed Donkey Kong games as less good Mario games anyways

 

[PixelKnight]

Wholesome games direct is up!

 

[Nathan Little]

probably a bit of a hot take but personally i've always viewed Donkey Kong games as less good Mario games anyways

 

[Marce-chan]

Every day we’re closer to seeing a new art style for the Mario series and that makes me very excited.

SAME!!!! I can't wait to see what they'll put out of the Switch. The game will probably be their longest ever development(we have reason to believe it's been in the works since 2018 and sure it was in full dev by 2019).
3D World or Odyssey like in 2D would be hype AF already but I'm pretty sure the 2D game will be way better looking than those. I think they can even put out something between Dread and LM3.

I wonder if the first good shot at sweeping the Game Awards since 2017 will make Nintendo more inclined to be more of a presence at the show this year.

Last year they announced a new Bayonetta game, revealed Fire Emblem Engage DLC and a Mario movie clip.
This year they have the strongest contender for GOTY, sure nomination and possible winner. They shadowdropped the DLC for BotW there in 2017, this year since we apparently will have to wait longer for TOTK DLC, I can see the story expansion being teased/revealed there.
If MP4 is already out by this holiday it's a contender to get nominated. If it's 2024 and already had a trailer shown by June or September Direct, I think it's likely we see another trailer for it there(like Mario movie clip and Bayo Origins).
What I really wonder tho is if the next 3D Mario doesn't end up being cross gen and they make a teaser trailer for it at the TGA for holiday 2024.

I'd be very happy with either. I just think Mario has had more time in the oven than DK.

My hope is we get the 3 games across EPD 8 and EPD 10 by the end of 2024.

My believe is 2D Mario this year, 2D DK by spring/summer 2024 and 3D Mario holiday 2024(Switch 2 launch title, hopefully cross gen like BotW).
It's great to expect those three platformers because we know for sure the teams took their time to realize their vision.
3D Mario having somewhere between 5-7 years of cooking (counting pre-production ofc) is just wild.

Here's your summer Direct

I mean a Super Mario Movie sequel is like the most inevitable thing ever. It's on track to become the most profitable animation movie ever(and it's sure to become with on-demand+home video sales).

Forget 2D Mario and 2D DK. Where's 2D Zelda? It's been 4 years since the LA's remake and nearly a decade since A Link Between Worlds. When's the next one coming out Nintendo?

And where's 2D Xenoblade? The last time we got one was never! Pikmin gets a 2D game but not Xenoblade! And we haven't gotten a brand new 2D Fire Emblem on Switch yet. Come on Nintendo. Start paying attention to these neglected series!

I think a new 2D Zelda has been in the works in some capacity (at least pre-prod) since Link's Awakening wrapped up. That game took 3.5-4 years to make and it was a remake. A new game taking about the same time to make + COVID would put it in 2024 at the earliest anyways, so I hope we get it ASAP.
My believe is it's released by early 2025 as a cross gen game. We don't see another boxed Zelda release next year because TotK will end up getting a Torna-like expansion.

 

[Ramune]

Wholesome games direct is up!

Neat! That Frogsong game that just shadowdropped looks cute.

 

[Pointy Tucks]

We might actually be getting a DK movie announcement before a DK game announcement. What a strange timeline we're living in.

There is a very real chance that Donkey Kong has multiple theme parks open before he gets a new game

 

[RealUncleNintendo]

 

[GhostWriter]

Well, it's June. Nintendo Direct rumours are gonna be everywhere all month now. I hope they show off one of the rumoured remasters (We've got Metroid Prime and Baten Kaitos, which leaves F-Zero GX, Kid Icarus: Uprising and Paper Mario; The Thousand Year Door). I don't know if we'll get one because I'm not an insider, but here's hoping something happens.

 

[Gengar]

For someone with the username Gengar, I don't post about Pokemon a lot. But you know what would be a good announcement that probably won't happen? NSO versions of the GBA mainline Pokemon games with all event Pokemon added. Not that they were huge DLC expansions, but events always seemed like fun ways to get extra Pokemon.

Realistically, I think we would see Red/Blue/Yellow (gen 1 gameboy versions) hit NSO before any other generations. That would be more likely to happen in a Pokemon Presents instead of a Nintendo Direct. Anyways, GBA is one thing, but it's really too bad the game boy didn't come to NSO sooner. They could have expanded the catalogue a lot more by now if they released it earlier.

 

[Stilt Village]

probably a bit of a hot take but personally i've always viewed Donkey Kong games as less good Mario games anyways

Kind of the other way around for me. There's been no competition in 3D of course, but the best DKC games have been better than the best Super Mario Bros. games for a long long time. Wario Land 4 is also better than any SMB.

 

[Pointy Tucks]

New! The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Ok but imagine they do a Super Mario Bros. 2 Movie and give it the “it was all a dream” ending like the game

Might be worth it if it means we get to see Wart again honestly

 

[Apopheniac]

Look, we all cheered when the phase one Super Smash Bros. epically beat down Dry Fury Bowser, but the leadup to Super Smash Bros. Melee has been disappointing thus far. Deity K. Rool looks rad from the teases we've seen, but it's hard to feel attached to no-names like Takamaru, Mr. Stevenson, the Prince of Sablé, or Hakkun. Worse yet, they've made the whole thing woke by bringing in this austere chick with a blonde ponytail when they could've just brought back Link with a Zonai Cannon.

 

[Cucufate]

Personally, I want the second Super Mario Bros Movie to be an entirely unrelated animated movie in which the main characters have the faces of Mario, Luigi and co. slapped on top of theirs.

Except in Japan, of course, where the sequel will be pretty much the same as the first movie, but with the characters constantly crashing into invisible blocks.

 

[BassForever]

Diddy's Kong Quest and Tropical Freeze are the only DKC game I feel comfortable in saying are better then the average Mario game. Not that DKC games are bad, but ain't no way I'm ranking DKC 1/3/Returns over SMB1/3/W or any of the New games.

 

[HockeyBird]

Xbox hyping up showcase: Tune into the Xbox Showcase 3 months from now! In month it's the Xbox Showcase! Xbox Showcase is only 5 days away! OMG, there's going to be so many games! Only 3 more days! Games. Check. Starfield. Check. Tomorrow is the big day!

Nintendo hyping up Direct: Hey dipshits, Direct in two days. It's going to be 40 minutes long or something. You can all stop panicking and making your low effort Nintendo Direct leaks videos. Fuck.

 

[Cyrus]

As much as I love them, I’ll admit it’s hard to compare even the best DKC games to the “golden age” Mario games like SMB3 and World, but tell me with a straight face you’d rather play one of four NSMB games over something like DKC2 or Tropical Freeze

I’d rather play one of four NSMB games over something like DKC2 or Tropical Freeze

 

[Supreme Bum 01]

I’d rather play one of four NSMB games over something like DKC2 or Tropical Freeze

get out

 

[Bobo]

Xbox hyping up showcase: Tune into the Xbox Showcase 3 months from now! In month it's the Xbox Showcase! Xbox Showcase is only 5 days away! OMG, there's going to be so many games! Only 3 more days! Games. Check. Starfield. Check. Tomorrow is the big day!

Nintendo hyping up Direct: Hey dipshits, Direct in two days. It's going to be 40 minutes long or something. You can all stop panicking and making your low effort Nintendo Direct leaks videos. Fuck.

I love my Xbox and I love gamepass but all of their marketing in this generation feels like they are trying to be cool rather than just being cool.

 

[Cyrus]

get out

 

[Mr_No_U]

Xbox hyping up showcase: Tune into the Xbox Showcase 3 months from now! In month it's the Xbox Showcase! Xbox Showcase is only 5 days away! OMG, there's going to be so many games! Only 3 more days! Games. Check. Starfield. Check. Tomorrow is the big day!

Nintendo hyping up Direct: Hey dipshits, Direct in two days. It's going to be 40 minutes long or something. You can all stop panicking and making your low effort Nintendo Direct leaks videos. Fuck.

can i still make my biingo cards?

 

[Mandos]

Definitely curious to see what Nintendo has this month no matter the form

Also give me that Baten Kaitos release date and format confirmation

 

[Pointy Tucks]

I’d rather play one of four NSMB games over something like DKC2 or Tropical Freeze

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, and forming an opinion based on your personal tastes and experiences is a key aspect of individuality and self expression.

That being said, your opinion hurts my soul

 

[theguy]

can i still make my biingo cards?

i heard they’re called banjo cards for xbox

 

[Rampo360]

Diddy's Kong Quest and Tropical Freeze are the only DKC game I feel comfortable in saying are better then the average Mario game. Not that DKC games are bad, but ain't no way I'm ranking DKC 1/3/Returns over SMB1/3/W or any of the New games.

For me it's only TF, not even DKC2.

 

[eye0h]

Sorry everyone but times are changing. It's no longer Mario and Sonic at the Olympic games. It's Link and Kiryu at the Olympic Games.

This is literally a game of the year contender off concept alone

 

[Pointy Tucks]

can i still make my biingo cards?

for sure! Here's mine:

 

[Mandos]

Definitely feel we’re getting more first party this year and a direct this month makes the most sense. Tho I’m also cool with a partner showcase. Only question is when

 

[rickyson33]

for sure! Here's mine:

technically the Starfield Direct is a separate event

 

[Pointy Tucks]

technically the Starfield Direct is a separate event

My bad! here's a fixed version:

 

[Evil Lucario]

Man, I wonder if Microsoft has anything. They didn't ship a single goddamn game to retail last year. As Dusk Falls and Pentiment were the only Microsoft-published games then. That is truly dire. Granted, the pandemic must have absolutely wrecked plans and caused a gaping hole there, but still that's rough.

And once FF16 ships, nearly every game Sony announced in 2020 except for Goodbye Volcano High and Pragmata would have come out. Meanwhile Microsoft hasn't really shipped much of ANYTHING aside from Halo Infinite and a couple other things like Psychonauts 2 and Forza Horizon 5, but a bunch of stuff from their 2020 shows have just not showed up at all.

 

[GhostWriter]

Jeff has heard early rumblings of Nintendo doing something in July. They don't usually do one in July, but it'd be interesting to see if it's just a Partner Showcase like last year. If the rumours are to be believed, then this is a quiet year for Nintendo, so a Partner Showcase would actually make a lot of sense.

With that in mind, what impossible port do you think would happen this time?

 

[Josh5890]

Man, I wonder if Microsoft has anything. They didn't ship a single goddamn game to retail last year. As Dusk Falls and Pentiment were the only Microsoft-published games then. That is truly dire. Granted, the pandemic must have absolutely wrecked plans and caused a gaping hole there, but still that's rough.

And once FF16 ships, nearly every game Sony announced in 2020 except for Goodbye Volcano High and Pragmata would have come out. Meanwhile Microsoft hasn't really shipped much of ANYTHING aside from Halo Infinite and a couple other things like Psychonauts 2 and Forza Horizon 5, but a bunch of stuff from their 2020 shows have just not showed up at all.

Forza Horizon was a huge hit in 2021, as was Microsoft Flight Simulator, and Psyconauts 2. HiFi Rush has been the surprise hit of 2023 so far.

This year we know about Starfield and Forza. After that, Avvowed and Hellblade 2 are likely 2024 games. Fable and Perfect Dark is probably 2025, but those teams are getting there. Rare has Everwild in progress, although that timeline is very murky. State of Decay 3 should be shown at some point, same with Outer Worlds 2. Plus the Gears of War team is due to share something, as well as Compulsion. And that doesn't even include Bethesda's teams as they are working on more than just Starfield.

Microsoft definitely has seen a dry spell and Redfall didn't work out, but they have a lot cooking that we should see tomorrow and in the near future.

 

[Joe]

Jeff has heard early rumblings of Nintendo doing something in July. They don't usually do one in July, but it'd be interesting to see if it's just a Partner Showcase like last year. If the rumours are to be believed, then this is a quiet year for Nintendo, so a Partner Showcase would actually make a lot of sense.

With that in mind, what impossible port do you think would happen this time?

I think the "quiet second half of 2023" claim has been debunked or at least highly questioned.

 

[JorgenRaft]

It is time for monke believers to rise up.

 

[palemire]

It is time for monke believers to (david) wise up.

Ftfy

 

[Mandos]

Jeff has heard early rumblings of Nintendo doing something in July. They don't usually do one in July, but it'd be interesting to see if it's just a Partner Showcase like last year. If the rumours are to be believed, then this is a quiet year for Nintendo, so a Partner Showcase would actually make a lot of sense.

With that in mind, what impossible port do you think would happen this time?

The quiet year rumor for Nintendo used a 13 million seller as a threshold. Nintendo has plenty of H2’s that only have 2-5 million sellers, plus revivals and new ips don’t have estimates. All the rumor really had was that leaks from Nintendo first party had dried up and no major partnerships have leaked. The first half of the year being so insanely dense means that they have plenty.

Also others have said June. Nintendo has always put out something in June. It’s always possible they’re having a live non announcement event in July tho

 

[Hocot8]

I think the "quiet second half of 2023" claim has been debunked or at least highly questioned.

well yeah cause it isn't based in logic.

I think big Nintendo fans will have plenty to enjoy. Kinda hoping for some casual niche game like Tomodachi life or whatever to come out. Put that on top of remasters and maybe a small game involving a big IP like AC would be great. Not to mention whatever the big holiday game is.

 

[hologram]

Imo 2d Mario is most logical explanation of the very optimistic software forecast for the FY. This is the only game that could pull high sales numbers, and I expect 3d Mario to be made for the next machine.
2d Mario sell to the mainstream audience and should benefit from the movie success.
Donkey kong is a possibility, but it is far from having the same sales potential.

Not having them credited in 5 years is really a lot of time, even covid delayed things more. If the full development started in 2019, it's not unreasonable to expect this game this year, especially if they want to sell 15M Switches this FY. There was no way this game would be ready like last year, it actually has little to do with Movie release, it's just EPD developmemt schedule. 2D Mario is the only Nintendo's biggest holiday seller in the last holiday of the Switch.

I wouldn't say it's inevitable, but that it's the likeliest candidate for me.

I would also say it's important to remember Nintendo don't have a Pokemon RPG this year and so they'll need another big brand to step up for the holiday season, and every October on Switch has a Super Mario franchise title of some kind. That bit of context is pretty vital to me, because you have to ask: what title will Nintendo use to replace Pokemon? And will they break a long span of Super Mario every October? On the latter front, this is the first June/July without a Mario title since 2017; but I can't see the holiday season going by without Mario.

Sure, DK or Tomodachi would perform strongly on Switch, and both are feasible from a development perspective. But neither has the selling power of a mainline Mario release. I do think an alternative possibility here is Mario Party in October. Perhaps DK or Tomodachi get September, and Prime 4 comes in November. But we have even less pointing to DK or Tomodachi than we do Super Mario, because we know 2D Mario in Kyoto is inevitable at some point, while there's still some debate as to what EPD 8 are doing.

My point is not that there is no evidence, but that the evidence all relies on inference rather than actual rumors. The inference is solid and logical, but at the end of the day it's still just inference. Some people appear to be treating "2D Mario in late 2023" like it's as certain as "Retro is remastering Metroid Prime" or "Ubisoft is making a sequel to Mario + Rabbids", which had a lot more direct evidence.

I think I agree with MisterSpo about it being the likeliest candidate, but like... of all the possibilities, it has a plurality of the probability but not a majority, if that makes sense.

 

[Instro]

Imo 2d Mario is most logical explanation of the very optimistic software forecast for the FY. This is the only game that could pull high sales numbers, and I expect 3d Mario to be made for the next machine.
2d Mario sell to the mainstream audience and should benefit from the movie success.
Donkey kong is a possibility, but it is far from having the same sales potential.

Is the software forecast particularly optimistic? It's 30+ million less than last FY, and includes TotK which is going to outsell a majority of their releases from the previous FY combined. That's coupled with the return of the voucher program as well. I'm not sure they need a another blockbuster release to hit their numbers.

 

[BassForever]

I think the rumored Donkey Kong game is more likely to happen this year then a new 2D Mario. The only new Mario I'm expecting is another Mario Party, or some other kind of spinoff.

 

[Mandos]

well yeah cause it isn't based in logic.

I think big Nintendo fans will have plenty to enjoy. Kinda hoping for some casual niche game like Tomodachi life or whatever to come out. Put that on top of remasters and maybe a small game involving a big IP like AC would be great. Not to mention whatever the big holiday game is.

You mean like Horse game which is out this month

 

[MisterSpo]

My point is not that there is no evidence, but that the evidence all relies on inference rather than actual rumors.

The hiring call is there in October 2019, though, and we know 2D Mario is made in Kyoto. That's more solid than any rumoured remaster for titles like F Zero or Paper Mario, which some people are also taking for granted will happen this year (personally I can see all of those projects being real, but hiring calls are solid whereas rumours are rumours until proven).

The inference is solid and logical, but at the end of the day it's still just inference. Some people appear to be treating "2D Mario in late 2023" like it's as certain as "Retro is remastering Metroid Prime" or "Ubisoft is making a sequel to Mario + Rabbids", which had a lot more direct evidence.

I think I agree with MisterSpo about it being the likeliest candidate, but like... of all the possibilities, it has a plurality of the probability but not a majority, if that makes sense.

The one I'd put question marks over is Tomodachi, because we don't actually know what EPD 7's exact status is, or if EPD 4 will adopt the Tomodachi franchise. EPD 7 might now be external projects only, rather than external and internal. Unlike projects at EPD 8 (Tokyo) and EPD 10 (Kyoto), there's no hiring call we can point to as solid evidence that something is afoot. But given Tomodachi Life hit 6.7 million on 3DS, it's a strong contender for further growth on Switch.

Is the software forecast particularly optimistic? It's 30+ million less than last FY, and includes TotK which is going to outsell a majority of their releases from the previous FY combined. That's coupled with the return of the voucher program as well. I'm not sure they need a another blockbuster release to hit their numbers.

It's not as optimistic as their hardware target. It's still a big target for them to hit, but I wouldn't be surprised if they shoot passed it because of how strong the Switch software market is. The last fiscal year had multiple big hits, like Pokemon Scarlet/Violet shifting 20 million and Splatoon 3 and Switch Sports shifting 10 million each. For the current fiscal year Zelda is the only heavy hitter and there is nothing close to another 10 million selling title yet confirmed.

Obviously, we barely know the fiscal year line up so far. Advance Wars will hardly make a dent; Pikmin 4 hopefully lands in the 3 to 5 million range. Everybody 1-2 Switch probably breaks the million mark. Presumably evergreens decline versus last year, too, as fewer people buy into the Switch market.

I think, for me, the software target isn't all that important so much as we know that Nintendo's strategy on Switch is pretty tried and tested by now, including that they never bank the entire fiscal year on a single big title, even if sometimes one title is disproportionately successful versus the others.

 

[Dardan Sandiego]

to whom it may concern

 

[Pointy Tucks]

It is time for monke believers to (david) wise up.

Please please please Nintendo I beg of you let David Wise do the music for MonkEPD
I’ll never ask for anything ever again (for the next 24 hours)

 

[shoptroll]

to whom it may concern

Gonna have to be more specific, you’ve probably alerted like half of this forum

 

[chocolate_supra]

to whom it may concern

Me

This concerns me

 

[Magic-Man]

Edit: Double Post Glitch

 

[Magic-Man]

If there's one thing 2D Mario and 2D DK fans can agree on, it's that Celeste is better than any of those games.

 

[febasguga]

If there's one thing 2D Mario and 2D DK fans can agree on, it's that Celeste is better than any of those games.

True.

The only DK I played was Tropical Freeze and it's just... not good. Hopefully we do get a new 2D Mario instead of a new DK.

 

[Magic-Man]

True.

The only DK I played was Tropical Freeze and it's just... not good. Hopefully we do get a new 2D Mario instead of a new DK.

Profile pic checks out