Seriously the movie and the sheer size of the Switch install base is uncharted territory for a mainline Super Mario title launch. We've no precedent for those kind of circumstances and I suspect Nintendo are banking on it being a very, very big launch.
No I'm very obviously talking about the titles Nintendo are actually releasing in that period versus what they normally do across September through November. If we want to compare to previous years, in 2022 they'd already done strong sellers like Pokemon Legends and Switch Sports earlier in the year, too, but it didn't stop them from having both Splatoon 3 and Pokemon in September and November. In 2019 they'd done two Super Mario titles in the first half, but still banked on multiple big sellers in the holiday season.
A single title doing the heavy lifting is slightly unusual in the Switch era and rarely happens; 2020 and 2017 being the other examples of it, and Super Mario being the series Nintendo relied on in both of those years too. Christopher Dring is also correct to point out that, by way of comparison with the rest of the holiday line up, there isn't another major title among them. That's not a controversial thing to point out, even if I think he's being dismissive of Super Mario Wonder's launch sales potential.
This would be a really strong late life option for Switch - be great if there's a digital option for owners of the ring-con. I'm not sure, though; somebody more knowledgable than me on EPD 4's producers and activities would have to chip in to say if that's a realistic option.