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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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I think it could be more interesting to known about the next games that could be use de advances of Drake, before going on circles

I think the Kingdom Come Deliverance port, Hogwarts Legacy, the leaked Remnant from the ashes port, Zelda TotK and the leaked Metroid Prime Remake are good potential games for this.
 
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Raccoon said:
no doubt, but if it's unrecognizable from the rumors I'd say it's not the same product
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what rumors are you referring to? you mentioned Dane, but the source of that also said it was the T239 SoC. so they just got the codename wrong, but they were right about the existence of the chip. what other relevant rumors are there that's explicitly about the hardware? Mochizuki and NateDrake didn't talk of specifics, only referring to analogies and base features like DLSS
 
probably in the minority but it feels like Zelda was pushed back for the new hardware as for whatever reason Drake wasn't going to be ready this holiday. this is why i'm still so confident we'll see it with Zelda. no Drake = Zelda finished and coming this year. Drake = extra few months for polish and to work on enhancements. will be very surprised if the near radio silence on Zelda and pushing to next FY was simply due to it not being ready after so long in the oven. the timelines have always been aligned.
 
Ojoloco said:
Why this wave of negativity? I'm sure if anything had changed, Nate would have already change his statements by saying that they have changed with the new information.

In addition to, as they say, the fact that there is not a rumor or leak every week does not invalidate everything that came before it, such as the Nvidia leak, the Linux leak or Nate's information.
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Not all of it is negativity, it also doubles as a (IMO premature) “I told you so” for some.
 
ILikeFeet said:
what rumors are you referring to? you mentioned Dane, but the source of that also said it was the T239 SoC. so they just got the codename wrong, but they were right about the existence of the chip. what other relevant rumors are there that's explicitly about the hardware? Mochizuki and NateDrake didn't talk of specifics, only referring to analogies and base features like DLSS
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Skittzo said:
It confirms the rumors... What rumors exactly are you referring to that the NVN2 leak doesn't explicitly confirm?
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I'n referring to the assertion that it's a more powerful switch coming in late 2022 or early 2023. if what actually happens deviates dramatically from this I'd say the rumors didn't pan out, even if they were true at the time

again, my primary point of comparison tonight is metroid prime trilogy hd. it already happened once with the 2019 switch pro becoming the v2 and the 2021 switch pro being a conflation of multiple products. now I'm entertaining the idea of what the next paradigm shift would be. a switch 2 in 2024 qualifies imo
 
Terrell said:
Not all of it is negativity, it also doubles as a (IMO premature) “I told you so” for some.
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not sure if you mean me but there isn't a chance that I, ryuichi "dramatically wrong about nintendo plans at least twice every year" rakunagi would be setting up an i told you so
 
As a result of the recent non-news, Nintendo should delay all the favorite games to spite the ones happy for no new hardware.


Now we both suffer 🤭
 
Terrell said:
Not all of it is negativity, it also doubles as a (IMO premature) “I told you so” for some.
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Had enough of these over the last year. It’s bad enough when things don’t pan out - we don’t need self righteous ‘told you so’s to pour salt in the wound.

That said, Raccoon isn’t the type. I don’t think…

ReddDreadtheLead said:
As a result of the recent non-news, Nintendo should delay all the favorite games to spite the ones happy for no new hardware.
Now we both suffer
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Do it. I’ll wait :]
 
Raccoon said:
I'n referring to the assertion that it's a more powerful switch coming in late 2022 or early 2023. if what actually happens deviates dramatically from this I'd say the rumors didn't pan out, even if they were true at the time

again, my primary point of comparison tonight is metroid prime trilogy hd. it already happened once with the 2019 switch pro becoming the v2 and the 2021 switch pro being a conflation of multiple products. now I'm entertaining the idea of what the next paradigm shift would be. a switch 2 in 2024 qualifies imo
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I don't think the MPTrilogy comparison holds up. that's still nothing but insider rumors, rooted in how much you think said insiders are credible. it's pretty hard to morph something like that once very-actually-real information drops. hanging on to old or alternative ideas now require extraordinary evidence.

so on what basis are you hanging on there being something else, whatever that "else" is? if something other than the T239 was being used, why should we believe that in face of the information we have?
 
FE Engage? Delayed, Scarlet and Violet? Delayed, TOTK? Delayed, next wave of Mario DLC? Delayed, NSO update? Delayed. Pikmin4? DELAYED AGAIN!


Delay it all and watch the internet burn😘

If you ordered any of these right now, tough luck buttercup now you gotta wait.

[insertnefemotehere]
 
Yeah, we're obviously just in the "it's time to panic" phase of the hype cycle. There's no reason to suddenly think the early/H1 2023 rumors are any less likely, it's just pessimism - it's way better to be proved wrong with good news than bad news, so they choose to doubt. But - and I've said this before - even if they're retrospectively proven correct, it doesn't mean their position is currently more reasonable (or even based on any evidence at all)
 
edit: the only things I'm talking about tonight are imran hoping for a zelda oled and natedrake hearing things that need corroborated. panicking about these things would be ridiculous, which is why I'm not. just attempting to "read the room" beyond what's accurate and think about what form a "plans change" sort of paradigm shift might take

ILikeFeet said:
I don't think the MPTrilogy comparison holds up. that's still nothing but insider rumors, rooted in how much you think said insiders are credible. it's pretty hard to morph something like that once very-actually-real information drops. hanging on to old or alternative ideas now require extraordinary evidence.

so on what basis are you hanging on there being something else, whatever that "else" is? if something other than the T239 was being used, why should we believe that in face of the information we have?
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I was supposing that the T239 is going to take a different form than expected/rumored
 
Skittzo said:
Are you trying to tiptoe around the idea that this might be a home console only?
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a home console, a VR console, a new console that breaks compatibility, etc

honestly, even coming sufficiently late enough (2024?) would feel like a significant diversion from our current understanding to me

I wish I had a stronger idea of how the zeitgeist might be wrong rather than just feeling as though we're in for another surprise
 
Raccoon said:
a home console, a VR console, a new console that breaks compatibility, etc

honestly, even coming sufficiently late enough (2024?) would feel like a significant diversion from our current understanding to me

I wish I had a stronger idea of how the zeitgeist might be wrong rather than just feeling as though we're in for another surprise
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wait, so you're talking about the form of the device? that's a completely different discussion than what the T239 is. the two are almost independent of each other
 
ILikeFeet said:
wait, so you're talking about the form of the device? that's a completely different discussion than what the T239 is. the two are almost independent of each other
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I would argue that what product the hardware ends up in has been a pretty significant part of the rumors

even I wouldn't entertain the notion that T239 doesn't exist or isn't for Nintendo. the current atmosphere just has me wondering what we'll actually get out of it, if anything
 
I’d think Nate would know and would also let us know if Drake was delayed from H1 2023 AKA 5/12/23.

I would imagine Nintendo is slowly getting ready to manufacture this thing shortly after this holiday shopping season, so between late November to early January. That way when the hardware manufacturer side info inevitably leaks to Mochizuki and the like, it’ll at least have been after most everyone has bought their Switch systems. And then they won’t have to deflect and deny rumors in the middle of Pokemon and BF sales launch.

I know it seems like things have been quiet on the dev front, but if there’s anything that would get them talking, it’d be (another?) half year delay or more of the hardware.

Think about it this way. Silence at the moment is merely another form of reassurance. Sure we’re not getting big new “11 devs and spices” articles from the Zukumber, but it's not like anyone is outright denying the rumors we’ve had for the past two years. That bombshell of an article still stands, just as Nate has corroborated.

Think of it like this. Christmas comes every year. But we as adults don’t need our parents to reconfirm that it’s still coming and that we will in fact be getting presents under the tree this year. But just because someone isn’t reaffirming that, yes Christmas is still on, it doesn’t mean that Easter or Halloween is happening instead.

Six months may not seem like a lot of time, but it is. But things are slowly moving, like the Linux update and Nate and Polygon have said. Have patience.

Remember, Mochizuki’s “imminent” article was May 26, 1.5 months before the July 6 OLED reveal and 4.5 months before the OLED launch in early October. If we follow a similar pattern, we still have until early January for a similar article, which would line up with a February showcase.

So yea, we are close, but still a little far from the truth.
 
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Raccoon said:
I would argue that what product the hardware ends up in has been a pretty significant part of the rumors

even I wouldn't entertain the notion that T239 doesn't exist or isn't for Nintendo. the current atmosphere just has me wondering what we'll actually get out of it, if anything
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that hasn't really be a part of the rumors though since that's not something devs would be privy to unless they were told to expect one set of technical specs, and no rumor said that
 
I am not expecting anything official from Nintendo until January at the earliest. No way they will announce new hardware now that we are into the holiday shopping season. (Seriously, where did the year go???)
 
Raccoon said:
I would argue that what product the hardware ends up in has been a pretty significant part of the rumors

even I wouldn't entertain the notion that T239 doesn't exist or isn't for Nintendo. the current atmosphere just has me wondering what we'll actually get out of it, if anything
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Nah, the rumors right now have only really talked about its capabilities (4k/DLSS) and its codename (T239/Dane/Drake). And of course timing.

None of the rumors have specifically said it has a specific form factor, all we've heard from Nate is that devs are under the impression that it's "a stronger Switch". Whether that means it'll have the same form factor or be home only or VR is not particularly clear from that wording.

I'd say the strongest evidence we have that it does have the same-ish form factor is that Chinese backpiece leak, since they said it was slightly different. If it was a radically different form factor, like home only or VR then it would likely have an extremely different backpiece.

But yeah very few of the main rumors we've been discussing touch on the form factor, so I don't really see that being something where the rumors and the final hardware may disagree.
 
I’m happy that this thread is moving, even if we’re just trying to assuage the rodent’s fears. It’s nice to see reiteration of all the evidence up to this point - 2023 here we go.
 
Been only 46 or so days since the T239 Linux commit regarding the core count, we're lucky the commit is open-source because we're unlikely to see any closed-source Nintendo specific details barring exceptional leaks, and the Nvidia data breach was particularly exceptional.

Considering the hardware is a new Switch-type device we're unlikely to hear any details about a new form factor like we did for the NX.

That and it not entering production 'til next year could explain the relative 'silence'.

Bloomberg already reported on devkits late last year, and we shouldn't necessarily rely on folks willingly breaking NDA just to share details about something coming as early as next May.

Feels like the pessimism stirred from Imran's post about 'holding out for a Totk OLED'. But he specifically posted that in a thread about someone getting an OLED Switch because their launch unit's fan was having issues, and Imran commented that his fan was also having issues and he wants to hold out until there's a model he particularly wants, like 'some kind of' TotK OLED.

Imran even Tweeted the same thing - "I am hoping to hold out until TOTK because I bet there will be a good Zelda-themed one" - when someone asked him if he'd be upgrading to an OLED. The context is specifically "since your Switch is about to die, that's a good excuse to upgrade to an OLED (the best version of the Switch on the market right now)" and Imran's answer is "I'm not upgrading to an OLED unless there's a version of it that I'd want". I'm not reading it as a confirmation or deconfirmation of anything.

According to his Patreon post Imran bought an OLED Switch 2 days ago, anyway. So much for waiting :p (I totally get it I want one sooooo bad....)
 
I had sort of assumed that the rumors insinuated a "better switch" but if that's irrelevant then yeah, any discussion of it is moot
 
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You know, more info could be just... laying around, somewhere in the internet right now, much like the linux kernel stuff.

In other words, we should start googling random shit more often.
 
Skittzo said:
See this is part of what I'm saying. Who exactly is saying "this is the year!" every year? AFAIK Nate has not once claimed "this is the year" definitively at all. Nobody but Mochizuki has IIRC.

This is what I mean by conflating different rumors and different sources. You need to apply a bit more consideration to what you're hearing and from whom before you start to believe it too much.

I guess, I figured that would lie outside the typical "insidery" people raccoon was referring to.

How? NVN2 is clearly and explicitly tied to Nintendo.
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I was mostly referring to regular people proclaiming this was the year. I'm aware Nate said 2022 was a possibility. When that didn't happen he said early 2023. So that is what we have to go on in terms of insiders. The bloomberg stuff was a disaster. We all thought we were getting Switch Pros in 2021 and we got an OLED instead. Oh well. Maybe it will come out next year or maybe it won't. That's basically all any of us can really say. My mindset was what happens to this conversation if Zelda comes out and there is still no new hardware? Will we start talking about late 2023? 2024? Beyond?
 
mariodk18 said:
I’d think Nate would know and would also let us know if Drake was delayed from H1 2023 AKA 5/12/23.

I would imagine Nintendo is slowly getting ready to manufacture this thing shortly after this holiday shopping season, so between late November to early January. That way when the hardware manufacturer side info inevitably leaks to Mochizuki and the like, it’ll at least have been after most everyone has bought their Switch systems. And then they won’t have to deflect and deny rumors in the middle of Pokemon and BF sales launch.

I know it seems like things have been quiet on the dev front, but if there’s anything that would get them talking, it’d be (another?) half year delay or more of the hardware.

Think about it this way. Silence at the moment is merely another form of reassurance. Sure we’re not getting big new “11 devs and spices” articles from the Zukumber, but it's not like anyone is outright denying the rumors we’ve had for the past two years. That bombshell of an article still stands, just as Nate has corroborated.

Think of it like this. Christmas comes every year. But we as adults don’t need our parents to reconfirm that it’s still coming and that we will in fact be getting presents under the tree this year. But just because someone isn’t reaffirming that, yes Christmas is still on, it doesn’t mean that Easter or Halloween is happening instead.

Six months may not seem like a lot of time, but it is. But things are slowly moving, like the Linux update and Nate and Polygon have said. Have patience.

Remember, Mochizuki’s “imminent” article was May 26, 1.5 months before the July 6 OLED reveal and 4.5 months before the OLED launch in early October. If we follow a similar pattern, we still have until early January for a similar article, which would line up with a February showcase.

So yea, we are close, but still a little far from the truth.
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I don't think Nintendo particularly cares about enthusiasts knowing of their future switch successor. I think it's more of a logistics thing where it just costs more to manufacture stuff: some companies are shifting production from China to other countries due to the Covid lockdowns, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo is similarly studying similar moves.
 
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So were the 4k Switch devkits real? That got me thinking of games with multiple hardware profiles, that even if an actual 4k Switch never releases, a platform like Drake could still acknowledge the 4k profile so it can act like one.
 
Kevin said:
I was mostly referring to regular people proclaiming this was the year. I'm aware Nate said 2022 was a possibility. When that didn't happen he said early 2023. So that is what we have to go on in terms of insiders. The bloomberg stuff was a disaster. We all thought we were getting Switch Pros in 2021 and we got an OLED instead. Oh well. Maybe it will come out next year or maybe it won't. That's basically all any of us can really say. My mindset was what happens to this conversation if Zelda comes out and there is still no new hardware? Will we start talking about late 2023? 2024? Beyond?
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I mean, at some point it has to be coming. Unless you're willing to believe Nintendo would throw away millions in R&D cost.

Raccoon said:
yeah like at some point we'll have to assume it's canned, right?
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No. We have hard proof that it exists, has existed at least in concept since 2019, and was being actively worked on as recently as August of this year.

It's happening at some point. They're not going to throw away 3+ years of work and hundreds of millions of dollars.
 
Kevin said:
My mindset was what happens to this conversation if Zelda comes out and there is still no new hardware? Will we start talking about late 2023? 2024? Beyond?
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Doesn't feel like it's worth having the conversation. There’s enough evidence pointing to early 2023 that the only answer to your hypothetical at this stage is “plans changed.”

If we hit February without a formal announcement, I don’t expect it’ll happen without some news hitting (Bloomberg or otherwise) digging into the why and how. Mochizuki already proposed that Nintendo not delivering would betray third party trust in the company.
 
It was only recently that we got the Tegra239 Linux update that Serif mentioned a few posts above, which suggests that it has not been canned at this stage of its development. We have so much information about this thing already that it has kind of spoilt us.

Instead of just being pessimistic for no logical reason, it's best to have some patience for the next wave of official news or rumours. I could understand if we got nothing for like half a year but we still get little snippets here and there, even if they have nothing to do with the release date of this new device.
 
Skittzo said:
I mean, at some point it has to be coming. Unless you're willing to believe Nintendo would throw away millions in R&D cost.


No. We have hard proof that it exists, has existed at least in concept since 2019, and was being actively worked on as recently as August of this year.

It's happening at some point. They're not going to throw away 3+ years of work and hundreds of millions of dollars.
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Raccoon said:
yeah like at some point we'll have to assume it's canned, right?
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karmitt said:
Doesn't feel like it's worth having the conversation. There’s enough evidence pointing to early 2023 that the only answer to your hypothetical at this stage is “plans changed.”

If we hit February without a formal announcement, I don’t expect it’ll happen without some news hitting (Bloomberg or otherwise) digging into the why and how. Mochizuki already proposed that Nintendo not delivering would betray third party trust in the company.
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Yeah I'll drop the topic. I'm honestly just depressed as heck lately which is just fueling my negativity with this. Sorry. We are all eager for new hardware and I hope we get something next year and if not we'll all live. I should practice better patience.
 
Discostew said:
So were the 4k Switch devkits real? That got me thinking of games with multiple hardware profiles, that even if an actual 4k Switch never releases, a platform like Drake could still acknowledge the 4k profile so it can act like one.
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It’s hard to say if it was or is real, as the way NVN and NVN2 can work, you don’t need a physical devkit necessarily to work with. Just a capable enough PC that runs windows.

And considering that it’s dev studios in the recent world, who have higher end work stations, they can have Drake be a form that doesn’t need a form.

Basically nothing hinges on an actual devkit being needed.


Also this is something I want to address, sorry to use your post as a launching pad DiscoStew

. Does anyone remember the initial report by Bloomberg about devkits being sent out in 2020? The first thing devs would be doing is getting their engines to run on the thing at all, ie working with their engines. They wouldn’t have a game ported to it if they can’t even get it to run.

And engine work takes time, quite some time. How many next gen games have you guys seen released on the new hardware with all its features? Like…. 10? Most games are still built around legacy and it’s already been two years since the PS5 and Series launched to the world. UE5 is still a mess. We haven’t seen next Gen Resident Evil game, so RE Engine version is still set for around the legacy hardware. Activision has 4 different types of engines and the recent one is still cross-gen.

There’s more reasons to this such as having a high install base on last gen, but guys, if you haven’t seen a game leak for the new hardware it’s because they have to get to step 1 before getting to step 11. And things take time.

Cross gen masks this process, and even more so with current development vs last development.



I’m going to posit a final perspective to look at this: the PlayStation5 and Xbox series have had their development kits out for well over 3 years, approaching 4 years even. The consoles came out 2 years ago.

How many games actually make use of the hardware and it’s new features?
 
Homura said:
You know, at this point I wonder if the real launch title for Switch Drake won't be ToTK, but Detective Pikachu 2.
With the way they're talking about it, it sounds like they're aiming for incredibly high-quality graphics, which would be an ideal technical showcase for new hardware.
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A Pokémon spin-off isn't really launch title material. Plus it's really worth keeping in mind that Creatures acts as a support studio for many Pokémon related projects.
Raccoon said:
we are currently experiencing the metroid prime trilogyification of the new switch: weird ass development circumstances wind up slowly invalidating the details and timeline of a persistent leak

you'll get your clean break switch 2 in holiday 2024 and like it
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What's happened is we've passed the deadline for an official announcement during 2022 and have entered the end of year news deadzone. Nothing about the state of the rumors has really materially changed.
Raccoon said:
but what if drake isn't what has been rumored? last time we were consistently hearing about a more powerful switch it was dane after all
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There is a really obvious mechanism for a name mixup to happen there (Marvel vs DC), and they still got the (weird and idiosyncratic) product number correct.
 
Raccoon said:
what you have to remember is that they can absolutely let fans lapse for a few years without appreciably affecting their business.
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Are you trying to differentiate too-deep fans like us, here? Because if their business is still strong, I'd say by definition they've still got plenty of fans.
Skittzo said:
None of the rumors have specifically said it has a specific form factor, all we've heard from Nate is that devs are under the impression that it's "a stronger Switch". Whether that means it'll have the same form factor or be home only or VR is not particularly clear from that wording.
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Seems pretty clear to me. If someone said "a stronger Game Boy", one wouldn't expect a home console or a toilet. That it's just been referred to as some kind of Switch has always been part of the discussion as to whether it will be pushed as a revision or successor, not that it's neither.
Discostew said:
So were the 4k Switch devkits real? That got me thinking of games with multiple hardware profiles, that even if an actual 4k Switch never releases, a platform like Drake could still acknowledge the 4k profile so it can act like one.
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They're just the same thing in different terms. Any 4K Switch dev kits in 2020 would just be very early approximations of what is now most commonly called Drake.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
Seems pretty clear to me. If someone said "a stronger Game Boy", one wouldn't expect a home console or a toilet. That it's just been referred to as some kind of Switch has always been part of the discussion as to whether it will be pushed as a revision or successor, not that it's neither.
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I more mean that it could be a Switch Lite kinda situation, where it has a different form factor and possibly different functionality. It would still be a "stronger Switch", not something entirely different.

Of course for many other reasons (mostly that we've heard no rumors about major form factor differences in production) I do believe it'll likely have the same or mostly similar form factor.
 
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We can't really know when it comes out beyond what has been speculated as the timing to us. I dunno. I'd love it in time for TOTK but if not then we wait. Nothing we can do but let the time tell. But no it hasn't been canceled. That's just silly.
 
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Josh5890 said:
I am not expecting anything official from Nintendo until January at the earliest. No way they will announce new hardware now that we are into the holiday shopping season. (Seriously, where did the year go???)
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Honestly the only thing I’m expecting out of this holiday period is FE:Engage marketing within the next month or so. Anything else is probably gonna be around their Feb Direct & after.
 
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