StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Raccoon]

My Spider-sense is giving me negative vibes.

@NateDrake without adding anything, does your information remain the same?

I don't think he's gonna tell us it's cancelled on a random sunday

we might find that out later this year though

 

[HankyPanky]

still confident it's coming day 1 with TOTK. don't see any reason to suggest otherwise despite a lack of leaks which makes sense if it's not going into production till next year.

 

[karmitt]

I don't think he's gonna tell us it's cancelled on a random sunday

we might find that out later this year though

No reason to be concerned for now tho. People were hyped around July and August because those felt like the upper limit for news or announcements were it coming in October or November. 2022 is clearly ruled out, so now we wait.

If we hit end of January without any leaks then I’ll probably start to worry. I’m honestly hoping we see the official reveal by then. The furthest out that we have for Nintendo titles was FE:Engage scheduled for January 20, perhaps February 24 if you count the Kirby remake. March-May is unscheduled and January seems a good time to talk about that (and beyond).

Edit: It is a bummer that we haven’t seen Nate or anybody else comment further on it, but that’s more so because I’m thirsty for news.

 

[NintenDuvo]

When creatures do make games, are they exclusively for Nintendo?

 

[NateDrake]

My Spider-sense is giving me negative vibes.

@NateDrake without adding anything, does your information remain the same?

Have been hearing a few things in recent weeks but nothing I want to comment on in the present until I'm given additional information.

 

[plank]

My Spider-sense is giving me negative vibes.

@NateDrake without adding anything, does your information remain the same?

I do say what would tip you off? Is it information that recently been posted, or is it the fact that nothing really is happening in regards to leak and rumors?

 

[karmitt]

The summons worked and gave you no reassurance @YolkFolk ! Ominous posts are all we get until the time is right

 

[Raccoon]

The summons worked and gave you no reassurance @YolkFolk ! Ominous posts are all we get until the time is right

this + imran paints a picture I don't especially like lol

either way I feel like the finale is relatively soon

 

[Derachi]

uh oh

oh no I don't want this negativity

oh no

 

[Brofield]

Being an empath in a hardware speculation thread is hard, y'all

 

[Raccoon]

they're really about to launch Nintendo Switch 2 a year or two after Zelda, presumably their most expensive game ever

honestly? based

 

[Hermii]

they're really about to launch Nintendo Switch 2 a year or two after Zelda, presumably their most expensive game ever

honestly? based

How can you presume anything about the budget of TOTK?

 

[YolkFolk]

You’d have to imagine that if this hardware doesn’t arrive before or with Tears of the Kingdom, that it will surely have to be Switch 2 if it’s late 2023 or after. If not, it’s never coming and will evolve into something else!

 

[Raccoon]

• emily says nintendo wants to wait out the shortage (citation needed)
• the dane vs drake confusion
• natedrake is hearing murmurs
• imran is hoping for a zelda oled

I'd like to preemptively congratulate the hardware community for being the first thread to reach a thousand pages

 

[Hermii]

You’d have to imagine that if this hardware doesn’t arrive before or with Tears of the Kingdom, that it surely will have to be Switch 2 if it’s 2023 or later. If not, it’s never coming and will evolve into something else!

yea, no i can’t imagine Nintendo shelving Switch Deluxe, Nvidia putting Drake in the shield next, and that’s it.

 

[Raccoon]

How can you presume anything about the budget of TOTK?

botw was their most expensive game and I was assuming that the sequel has been more expensive. I guess with it building on the first game that may not be the case

 

[YolkFolk]

How can you presume anything about the budget of TOTK?

There’s probably not too much competition. I’d imagine it’s between BotW, TotK or Smash Ultimate.

 

[Hermii]

botw was their most expensive game and I was assuming that the sequel has been more expensive. I guess with it building on the first game that may not be the case

Yea, I personally wouldn’t assume that’s the case.

 

[YolkFolk]

yea, no i can’t imagine Nintendo shelving Switch Deluxe, Nvidia putting Drake in the shield next, and that’s it.

I think I was just trying to say that it’s surely 100% Switch 2 if it’s not out by the middle of this year. Going into late 2023 or early 2024 to bring out a Deluxe just seems too weird.

 

[Thugstas]

uh oh

oh no I don't want this negativity

oh no

No negativity. Don’t worry

 

[karmitt]

How can you presume anything about the budget of TOTK?

I mean at a minimum it feels like their most expensive game ever. 6 years of dev time, COVID or not, they were still paying for development the whole time. They just weren’t able to work as effectively for part of it.

The next Mario could end up being a more expensive game for all we know, but we haven’t seen it yet.

Edit: And I don’t subscribe to the idea that it’s any less ambitious or costly to develop than the first game just because they’re “reusing the same hyrule.” Expectations will be subverted

 

[Kevin]

Old rumors don't disappear just because nothing new has happened recently.

We know Nintendo is of course working on new hardware, I just remain unconvinced that 2023 is the year. Initially I thought it would absolutely launch with the new Zelda considering the time and scope of such a project but we are just over six months from the release of that game and there just isn't any rumors or signs of new hardware approaching at all. Complete radio silence on everything. I maintain that if there is no new hardware around the time Tears of the Kingdom releases then the hardware really is years out still. I do NOT see Nintendo releasing new hardware just months after Tears of the Kindom. That game would absolutely be a crossgen title if hardware is coming in 2023 at all.

Everyone is different, I don't play my Switch that much anymore. I only ever play TV play and the graphics and performance are just to bad anymore so I basically moved on. I'll play Zelda but beyond that I'm not really playing Nintendo games all that much anymore which is a huge shame because I love the games but the poor resolution and framerate issues and lack of evolution in graphics is really dampening my overall experience when I also have a PS5 and XSX. Switch is a terrible experience on a 65' OLED tv. At least in my personal experience. My friend also moved onto Steam Deck and the other consoles. Nintendo risks losing a lot of fans in the coming year or two or however long it takes them to actually release new hardware. I think a lot of people are ready to move on but if there isn't another product to move onto then I think they will switch platforms.

I guess I personally felt like 2023 was the latest you could go before releasing new hardware before people just give up but I guess that's my own projection. At the end of the day, I don't know if fans will start moving on in large numbers or not. Time and sales will tell. After nearly five years of talking about a Switch Pro I have grown very weary and very tired and I kind of just given up hope. I honestly feel broken on this subject because I wanted new hardware a lot more then I probably should have (it's a toy after all at the end of the day) but damn did I want it. At some point though you got to move on. Or I do at any rate. Tired.

 

[Hermii]

I think I was just trying to say that it’s surely 100% Switch 2 if it’s not out by the middle of this year. Going into late 2023 or early 2024 to bring out a Deluxe just seems too weird.

I think it will be effectively Switch 2 no matter when it’s coming out.

And I think it will be Drake, no matter when it’s coming out honestly. Creating a soc costs a lot of money, it’s not something you just shelve.

 

[Raccoon]

we are currently experiencing the metroid prime trilogyification of the new switch: weird ass development circumstances wind up slowly invalidating the details and timeline of a persistent leak

you'll get your clean break switch 2 in holiday 2024 and like it

 

[Skittzo]

Y'all need Jesus patience.

 

[Serif]

I don't see what's changed. Drake exists and has been in development. The Nvidia leak is irrefutable. I doubt it's shelved and I doubt hardware can be delayed indefinitely. At this point I'm just waiting for it, not worrying if it'll come to fruition.

 

[Raccoon]

I guess I personally felt like 2023 was the latest you could go before releasing new hardware before people just give up but I guess that's my own projection. At the end of the day, I don't know if fans will start moving on in large numbers or not. Time and sales will tell. After nearly five years of talking about a Switch Pro I have grown very weary and very tired and I kind of just given up hope. I honestly feel broken on this subject because I wanted new hardware a lot more then I probably should have (it's a toy after all at the end of the day) but damn did I want it. At some point though you got to move on. Or I do at any rate. Tired.

what you have to remember is that they can absolutely let fans lapse for a few years without appreciably affecting their business. it sucks for us I guess but even if it's 2026 we'll come back

 

[Hermii]

I mean at a minimum it feels like their most expensive game ever. 6 years of dev time, COVID or not, they were still paying for development the whole time. They just weren’t able to work as effectively for part of it.

The next Mario could end up being a more expensive game for all we know, but we haven’t seen it yet.

A lot of Nintendo games are worked on for years by small teams, hashing things out and doing prototyping before they go into full production.

We don’t know how many people worked on TOTK for all that time.

 

[Skittzo]

but we are just over six months from the release of that game and there just isn't any rumors or signs of new hardware approaching at all.

???

There have been a metric shit ton of rumors, what are you talking about?? Just look at the OP of this thread.

This is exactly what I mean when I say older rumors don't disappear because nothing new has happened. We've been told since the end of 2020 that the plan has been late 2022/early 2023, and that hasn't changed.

 

[Raccoon]

???

There have been a metric shit ton of rumors, what are you talking about?? Just look at the OP of this thread.

This is exactly what I mean when I say older rumors don't disappear because nothing new has happened. We've been told since the end of 2020 that the plan has been late 2022/early 2023, and that hasn't changed.

us entering that time period with nothing but insidery people hearing murmurs and hoping for zelda oleds does put some pressure on it though

I don't think the leaks need defended or anything but every day like this prepares me more for a "whoops everything is totally different because shit is crazy behind the scenes" moment a la the metroid prime trilogy to prime hd conversion. and you have to admit that if there was ever a time for extenuating circumstances...

 

[Kevin]

???

There have been a metric shit ton of rumors, what are you talking about?? Just look at the OP of this thread.

This is exactly what I mean when I say older rumors don't disappear because nothing new has happened. We've been told since the end of 2020 that the plan has been late 2022/early 2023, and that hasn't changed.

I'm aware of all the rumors, I guess I'm just wondering what people are going to be saying next year IF Tears of the Kingdom releases and there is no hardware in sight which will break the current "Late 2022/Early 2023" cycle. Don't think I want to hear "Plans Change" for another year. I remember people thinking 2019 was the year a Pro could happen and I thought that was too early so I thought maybe Holiday 2020. Then the pandemic hit so I figured, maybe it was delayed a year until Holiday 2021. Then we end up getting the OLED model. Ok so maybe Holiday 2022. Nope? You can see the trend here...

 

[Raccoon]

I'm aware of all the rumors, I guess I'm just wondering what people are going to be saying next year IF Tears of the Kingdom releases and there is no hardware in sight which will break the current "Late 2022/Early 2023" cycle. Don't think I want to hear "Plans Change" for another year. I remember people thinking 2019 was the year a Pro could happen and I thought that was too early so I thought maybe Holiday 2020. Then the pandemic hit so I figured, maybe it was delayed a year until Holiday 2021. Then we end up getting the OLED model. Ok so maybe Holiday 2022. Nope? You can see the trend here...

I do empathize with @Skittzo's frustration that the bolded "delays" were completely divorced from reality, but it's not like the leaks have much tangible evidence either

 

[Skittzo]

us entering that time period with nothing but insidery people hearing murmurs and hoping for zelda oleds does put some pressure on it though

I don't think the leaks need defended or anything but every day like this prepares me more for a "whoops everything is totally different because shit is crazy behind the scenes" moment a la the metroid prime trilogy to prime hd conversion. and you have to admit that if there was ever a time for extenuating circumstances...

We have way more than insidery people hearing murmuring. We have direct, physical evidence from multiple official Nvidia sources, a report about a new backplate piece being tested in China, we have information directly from Nintendo about R&D costs rising astronomically for no discernable official reason...

I'm aware of all the rumors, I guess I'm just wondering what people are going to be saying next year IF Tears of the Kingdom releases and there is no hardware in sight which will break the current "Late 2022/Early 2023" cycle. Don't think I want to hear "Plans Change" for another year. I remember people thinking 2019 was the year a Pro could happen and I thought that was too early so I thought maybe Holiday 2020. Then the pandemic hit so I figured, maybe it was delayed a year until Holiday 2021. Then we end up getting the OLED model. Ok so maybe Holiday 2022. Nope? You can see the trend here...

What you're doing is conflating multiple different rumors about entirely different products. It's not the fault of insiders that you only see the final product as "Switch Pro" and they don't need to defend their reporting if plans change, when they of course quite often do.

 

[Kevin]

We have way more than insidery people hearing murmuring. We have direct, physical evidence from multiple official Nvidia sources, a report about a new backplate piece being tested in China, we have information directly from Nintendo about R&D costs rising astronomically for no discernable official reason...

What you're doing is conflating multiple different rumors about entirely different products. It's not the fault of insiders that you only see the final product as "Switch Pro" and they don't need to defend their reporting if plans change, when they of course quite often do.

I'm not attacking insiders per say. I think it's more of a continue culture at this point from everyone that each year is basically "This is the year!" So it seems like the general consensus now is 2023 for most folks. Guess we will have to wait and see.

 

[karmitt]

We have way more than insidery people hearing murmuring. We have direct, physical evidence from multiple official Nvidia sources, a report about a new backplate piece being tested in China, we have information directly from Nintendo about R&D costs rising astronomically for no discernable official reason...

This one I was pretty sure fit into the murmurs and rumors category no?
“a report about a new backplate piece being tested in China,”

The rest I agree.

 

[Raccoon]

We have direct, physical evidence from multiple official Nvidia sources, a report about a new backplate piece being tested in China, we have information directly from Nintendo about R&D costs rising astronomically for no discernable official reason...

all of these but the backplate could be related to something else

 

[ILikeFeet]

When creatures do make games, are they exclusively for Nintendo?

they're not owned by nintendo, they can make for whoever they want. that said, yes they have only made games for nintendo systems/pokemon

 

[Ojoloco]

Why this wave of negativity? I'm sure if anything had changed, Nate would have already change his statements by saying that they have changed with the new information.

In addition to, as they say, the fact that there is not a rumor or leak every week does not invalidate everything that came before it, such as the Nvidia leak, the Linux leak or Nate's information.

 

[Serif]

all of these but the backplate could be related to something else

What else could NVN2 be related to?

 

[Skittzo]

I'm not attacking insiders per say. I think it's more of a continue culture at this point from everyone that each year is basically "This is the year!" So it seems like the general consensus now is 2023 for most folks. Guess we will have to wait and see.

See this is part of what I'm saying. Who exactly is saying "this is the year!" every year? AFAIK Nate has not once claimed "this is the year" definitively at all. Nobody but Mochizuki has IIRC.

This is what I mean by conflating different rumors and different sources. You need to apply a bit more consideration to what you're hearing and from whom before you start to believe it too much.

This one I was pretty sure fit into the murmurs and rumors category no?
“a report about a new backplate piece being tested in China,”

The rest I agree.

I guess, I figured that would lie outside the typical "insidery" people raccoon was referring to.

all of these but the backplate could be related to something else

How? NVN2 is clearly and explicitly tied to Nintendo.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Why this wave of negativity? I'm sure if anything had changed, Nate would have already change his statements by saying that they have changed with the new information.

In addition to, as they say, the fact that there is not a rumor or leak every week does not invalidate everything that came before it, such as the Nvidia leak, the Linux leak or Nate's information.

people are addicted to a constant stream of "assurance" for some reason. they need to touch some grass, IMO. just wait until we actually hear something of worth, not all silence means much

 

[Kingpin Rogers]

See this is part of what I'm saying. Who exactly is saying "this is the year!" every year? AFAIK Nate has not once claimed "this is the year" definitively at all. Nobody but Mochizuki has IIRC.

Emily did as well tbf, backed the Bloomberg report in 2021 about the Switch Pro announcement being imminent and planned for Sep/Oct of that year.
I know for me that's when I bowed out of the Switch Pro talk for the most part and now only check this thread occasionally to see if there's been any kind of concrete updates..

 

[Skittzo]

Emily did as well tbf, backed the Bloomberg report in 2021 about the Switch Pro announcement being imminent and planned for Sep/Oct of that year.
I know for me that's when I bowed out of the Switch Pro talk for the most part and now only check this thread occasionally to see if there's been any kind of concrete updates..

Yeah she was backing up Mochizuki's reporting, forgot about that. A lot of people understandably deferred to him for that month long period.

 

[Raccoon]

What else could NVN2 be related to?

How? NVN2 is clearly and explicitly tied to Nintendo.

definitely Nintendo, but not necessarily the product as rumored, if that makes sense. the same way that metroid prime trilogy was something

 

[Skittzo]

definitely Nintendo, but not necessarily the product as rumored, if that makes sense. the same way that metroid prime trilogy was something

I'm still not sure what you mean. We know NVN2 is an API for Drake, we literally got the Drake code name from the NVN2 leak.

 

[Look over there]

You’d have to imagine that if this hardware doesn’t arrive before or with Tears of the Kingdom, that it will surely have to be Switch 2 if it’s late 2023 or after. If not, it’s never coming and will evolve into something else!

Darn, should've never skipped hitting the B button.

 

[Raccoon]

I'm still not sure what you mean. We know NVN2 is an API for Drake, we literally got the Drake code name from the NVN2 leak.

but what if drake isn't what has been rumored? last time we were consistently hearing about a more powerful switch it was dane after all

 

[karmitt]

all of these but the backplate could be related to something else

definitely Nintendo, but not necessarily the product as rumored, if that makes sense. the same way that metroid prime trilogy was something

Bloomberg (and Nate) referring to a 4K device with DLSS, NVN2 leak with DLSS, T239 in Linux kernel are referring to 'something else'? I get it, MVG's stance that T239 in the Linux kernel isn't some 'smoking gun' as he put it for the Switch being imminent, but according to DF it's not 'nothing' - they suggest the chip is out of pre-production and into fabrication:


As for the R&D costs (as well as the stockpiling of 'raw materials' that was also noted), we don't have anything else to attribute them to. I guess you could say it's just 'something else' but hardware soon seems like an easy out.

Also, Furukawa did not deny them releasing new HW this FY to the media back in May (can't find the source, but BB mentions it in an article around the Nintendo stock split). If nothing's happening, they say so. This was the type of non-answer they give to leave an opening

Edit: The quote I found specifically says "the Nintendo president declined to comment when asked during a media briefing about when his company might unveil the next iteration of its marquee console." But that's Bloomberg's paraphrasing. I still think the same sentiment as I mentioned above applies.

but what if drake isn't what has been rumored? last time we were consistently hearing about a more powerful switch it was dane after all

Dane iirc came from kopite7kimi on Twitter, and he mentioned T239 at the same time. It makes a lot more sense to assume he made a mistake around the code name, or that the code name changed.

 

[ILikeFeet]

but what if drake isn't what has been rumored? last time we were consistently hearing about a more powerful switch it was dane after all

it's literally spelled out in the nvidia leak. you're jumping through flaming hoops to contort that information. the only question is when/if it comes out

 

[Serif]

Yeah she was backing up Mochizuki's reporting, forgot about that. A lot of people understandably deferred to him for that month long period.

Yeah. Nate gave a Q4 2022 date as early as May of last year, then Mochizuki's report came out and threw a wrench into everything. Nate and Digital Foundry even tried to reconcile Mochizuki's report with Nate's timeline, and discussed the possibility that Aula is a Switch with an OLED screen and a 4K Switch is something else - which ended up being accurate.

Mochizuki ultimately had separate but correct sources. Some sources talked about devkits, others were in manufacturing discussing an OLED screen. He put two and two together which was not unreasonable, even if it ended up being wrong.

But no reason to disregard him completely, he still reported on 4K devkits late last year. That cannot be conflated with OLED, it is most likely Drake. OLED devkits only had additional RAM.