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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Nice single core GeekBench 5 score; 754/2.2 = ~342.73. I have not come across a Zen 2 chip in the Geekbench Browser that reaches that. I want to say that on average, Zen 3 scores better, but there a few unlucky ones out there that do worse per clock.
Kinda wish I knew how to compare SPEC scores against x86 architectures. What I've seen in reviews on Anandtech is that SPEC is compiled specifically for the ISA though with the option of specific flags? Like say, x86-64 with the option to turn on AVX2 testing. So I guess these SPEC scores here can only really be compared against other ARM chips?

Nvidia also presented Grace at Hot Chips.
developer.nvidia.com

Inside NVIDIA Grace CPU: NVIDIA Amps Up Superchip Engineering for HPC and AI | NVIDIA Technical Blog

Discover the key features and benefits of NVIDIA Grace CPU, the first data center CPU developed by NVIDIA. It has been built from the ground up to create the world’s first superchips.
developer.nvidia.com developer.nvidia.com
The main thing I take away from that? The max memory bandwidth of 546 GB/s via 32 'channels' of LPDDR5X. A 'channel' of LPDDR can be either 16-bit or 32-bit. 546 / (32*32/8) ~= 4.266 GT/s. That would be LPDDR4X speed, so I'm ruling that out. 546 / (32*16/8) ~= 8.531 GT/s. That's more like almost the full speed of LPDDR5X, which makes sense. Grace is expected to be available in the first half of next year.
Why am I pointing the above out? Currently the only LPDDR5X that I see in memory manufacturer's catalogs is 7500 MT/s (Samsung). Grace shows the memory manufacturers' delivery on the full speed of LPDDR5X and roughly by when.
 
Mr Swine said:
Sadly enough I’m starting to doubt a 2022 and early 2023 reveal and release of Drake.

I think it makes most sense for Nintendo to do a July reveal and release it in august next year.
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I think a June reveal and a november release makes the most sense since that's pretty much the standard for new console marketing.
 
karmitt said:
Why does it make the most sense?
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I’m thinking that Drake is not ready yet while Nintendo will probably start to use upscaling for the Switch games until it’s out.

Shiba said:
I think a June reveal and a november release makes the most sense since that's pretty much the standard for new console marketing.
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Doesn’t that depends if Nintendo releases it as a new hardware vs revision?
 
Mr Swine said:
I’m thinking that Drake is not ready yet while Nintendo will probably start to use upscaling for the Switch games until it’s out.
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Lot of assumptions in there. We could find out any day now that Drake has been ready for some time and they’re ramping up production as we speak. Hard for anybody to make a claim about what ‘makes sense’ with all of the unknowns at play.
 
Rogue Agent said:
So from the above information that Dakhil linked to, is there any new speculation for the Drake SoC?
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No not really. We already have the Drakes feature set documented, if you care to download nvn2.

Orin is a separate thing from Drake.

Edit, we can probably reconfirm clocks will be low, assuming Drake is 8nm.
 
Hermii said:
No not really. We already have the Drakes feature set documented, if you care to download nvn2.

Orin is a separate thing from Drake.

Edit, we can probably reconfirm clocks will be low, assuming Drake is 8nm.
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Low clocks would be roughly what the Switch is clocked at now?
 
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karmitt said:
Lot of assumptions in there. We could find out any day now that Drake has been ready for some time and they’re ramping up production as we speak. Hard for anybody to make a claim about what ‘makes sense’ with all of the unknowns at play.
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That is what I hope but seeing how there is an treehouse tomorrow and in less than two weeks the rumored general direct it looks bleak. I wonder if they could announce the new model next week ahead of the direct.

ILikeFeet said:
Upscaling isn't the magic you're thinking it is
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I know but I’ve played games with DLSS so it’s magic for me!

Honestly I mean that they use FSR1.0 to scale up low resolution so it looks like it’s ”sharper” thanks to the sharpening filler :p
 
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GamerJM said:
What if Drake's codename is Drake because they're going to have its reveal ad set to a song off of Drake's most recent album?
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Nintendo and musician Drake have something in common: their focus is on younger people than most of their peers focus on
 
10k said:
No, announcement in January 2023.

It's either they announce it next month for a holiday release, or they announce it early Q1 2023 for an early spring release.
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I mean, part of me is still hesitant on a January announcement right after the holidays when millions of people have just unwrapped a brand new Switch as their gift, but I've also been told that those people who are getting a Switch now likely don't care all that much for a brand spankin' new console.

At this point I'm just on board for any kind of announcement this fiscal year, but a release is a nice perk 😋
 
Brofield said:
I mean, part of me is still hesitant on a January announcement right after the holidays when millions of people have just unwrapped a brand new Switch as their gift, but I've also been told that those people who are getting a Switch now likely don't care all that much for a brand spankin' new console.

At this point I'm just on board for any kind of announcement this fiscal year, but a release is a nice perk 😋
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The people buying Switch's this holiday are late adopters who never buy stuff day 1 anyways.

This Drake model is going to be aimed at the enthusiasts and early adopters of Switch from 2017-2018.

Base Switch is also going to be supply constrained for the holidays so I doubt too many people will be unwrapping Switch's this Xmas.
 
Brofield said:
I mean, part of me is still hesitant on a January announcement right after the holidays when millions of people have just unwrapped a brand new Switch as their gift, but I've also been told that those people who are getting a Switch now likely don't care all that much for a brand spankin' new console.

At this point I'm just on board for any kind of announcement this fiscal year, but a release is a nice perk 😋
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Nintendo also does not care about potentially pissing some people off by introducing a new much more expensive model.

They've never cared about that type of thing in the past, it's odd so many focus on it as a reason they'd avoid a January announcement.
 
Skittzo said:
Nintendo also does not care about potentially pissing some people off by introducing a new much more expensive model.

They've never cared about that type of thing in the past, it's odd so many focus on it as a reason they'd avoid a January announcement.
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Smart people are the winners here, they know Nintendo is up to do evil, so they just wait and save money!

(Also they don't have to get anything during holidays cause they day 1'd OLED already!)
 
Bonejack said:
Smart people are the winners here, they know Nintendo is up to do evil, so they just wait and save money!

(Also they don't have to get anything during holidays cause they day 1'd OLED already!)
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Or those who have the odd case of buying a Playstation 5 at launch and selling it now for profit and doing the same with the Steam Deck so you can waste everything on Splatoon Amiibo and a limited edition OLED knowing they'll be worth a fortune later in my dreams

All of this is possible while waiting for the new Switch since 2020 while ending with the same amount of money in 2023.
 
Yavga said:
Or those who have the odd case of buying a Playstation 5 at launch and selling it now for profit and doing the same with the Steam Deck so you can waste everything on Splatoon Amiibo and a limited edition OLED knowing they'll be worth a fortune later in my dreams

All of this is possible while waiting for the new Switch since 2020 while ending with the same amount of money in 2023.
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Oh no, that's too much work for me. I'm lazy.
 
September is really stretching it for Drake. Just gimme Metroid Prime and/or something cool and unannounced and a meaty Zelda trailer and I'll be fine.
 
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Skittzo said:
Nintendo also does not care about potentially pissing some people off by introducing a new much more expensive model.

They've never cared about that type of thing in the past, it's odd so many focus on it as a reason they'd avoid a January announcement.
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On a similar note, though, I think the conventional wisdom that Nintendo wouldn't announce before the holidays and release after is a bit overvalued. There are strategic reasons they may choose not to do it, but it's not really a hard rule like people are treating it as. If they think it will work better strategically, they'll do it.
 
karmitt said:
Lot of assumptions in there. We could find out any day now that Drake has been ready for some time and they’re ramping up production as we speak. Hard for anybody to make a claim about what ‘makes sense’ with all of the unknowns at play.
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From the factory leaks I've seen here and elsewhere and some people I've spoken to, again, I can't claim to be a leaker but.

As far as I'm aware, the Drake Switch went into production alongside the Splatoon 3 OLED Model and Splatoon 3 OLED Model, releasing earlier by months, seems to have plenty of stock. Given the time frame I'm under the impression that they are CURRENTLY ramping up production while other production lines get more optimised.

I'm not saying the Mariko Switch getting a smaller box means anything for Drake, but it is a fact it means they are trying to optimise production and transport down to reusing cardboard and reducing pallet sizes. That takes serious work, supply chain wise. Serious work I can't see them doing JUST to get more Marikos on shelves when OLED Model is just as popular and makes them more money per unit (even if the margin is the same).
 
Nintendojitsu said:
The only thing I expect from Nintendo is the unexpected.
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anchorman-brian-fantana.gif
 
Pokemaniac said:
On a similar note, though, I think the conventional wisdom that Nintendo wouldn't announce before the holidays and release after is a bit overvalued. There are strategic reasons they may choose not to do it, but it's not really a hard rule like people are treating it as. If they think it will work better strategically, they'll do it.
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Yeah I don't really consider it a hard and fast rule, just pretty unlikely going by how they've been doing marketing the past few years
 
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Pokemaniac said:
On a similar note, though, I think the conventional wisdom that Nintendo wouldn't announce before the holidays and release after is a bit overvalued. There are strategic reasons they may choose not to do it, but it's not really a hard rule like people are treating it as. If they think it will work better strategically, they'll do it.
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It makes strategic sense for a March launch to have a September-October reveal. I mean New 3DS was revealed in August and released in February in the West.

As others have pointed out, people just entering the Switch ecosystem probably won't shell out for the top end option.

Even if we expect many to do so, I'm going to reiterate:

Nintendo Switch is currently constrained by SUPPLY, not by limited demand. Revealing a product now that reduces demand so it matches supply means they can sell more consoles to more engaged consumers (as opposed to scalpers). It means that the people skipping out to buy their 300 dollar console now are doing so to buy their 500 dollar console later.

That's more money for them: supply satisfies demand, and there's marketing and financial breathing room for the new system.

That's just my take on it. I think the "pre holiday reveal would RUIN their holiday sales they'd NEVER do that" is silly when it both likely wouldn't and even if it might, it never stopped them before. Not the 3DS, Switch, New 3DS or Wii U reveal. All announced before the last holiday season of the previous console.
 
Hardware launches are once every 5 to 7 years there's not enough data point to use past experience

The idea they would pull a bait and switch by announcing in January just doesn't pass the smell test. The extra sales gained will be lost in unhappy consumers, and retailers from consumers returning product

It makes more sense to announce ahead of their biggest sales season or wait until well after it.

My expectation is a H2 2023 release so they could announce in the late spring or early summer

If it's come to earlier like March before the end of the FY they will let people know ahead of time. It will be positioned as a premium product so it won't impact budget minded consumers picking up an OG Switch for potentially $200 below the price of this new console
 
Concernt said:
It makes strategic sense for a March launch to have a September-October reveal. I mean New 3DS was revealed in August and released in February in the West.

As others have pointed out, people just entering the Switch ecosystem probably won't shell out for the top end option.

Even if we expect many to do so, I'm going to reiterate:

Nintendo Switch is currently constrained by SUPPLY, not by limited demand. Revealing a product now that reduces demand so it matches supply means they can sell more consoles to more engaged consumers (as opposed to scalpers). It means that the people skipping out to buy their 300 dollar console now are doing so to buy their 500 dollar console later.

That's more money for them: supply satisfies demand, and there's marketing and financial breathing room for the new system.

That's just my take on it. I think the "pre holiday reveal would RUIN their holiday sales they'd NEVER do that" is silly when it both likely wouldn't and even if it might, it never stopped them before. Not the 3DS, Switch, New 3DS or Wii U reveal. All announced before the last holiday season of the previous console.
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Please consider that my upvote counts for like 20.
I can’t express enough how much I agree with all of this, thank you!!
 
Concernt said:
That's just my take on it. I think the "pre holiday reveal would RUIN their holiday sales they'd NEVER do that" is silly when it both likely wouldn't and even if it might, it never stopped them before. Not the 3DS, Switch, New 3DS or Wii U reveal. All announced before the last holiday season of the previous console.
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I've kind of ended up along this line of thinking as well. I don't think it would tank their holiday sales. Plus I'm guessing there's probably 1-2 more unannounced titles that will release before Christmas that will help juice their sales. And I think the reveal would include the premium price along with the date & features (and maybe like 1 exclusive title but with heavy emphasis on it being cross-gen) so consumers can choose to wait and pay more if they want to.

hopium.jpg
 
10k said:
The people buying Switch's this holiday are late adopters who never buy stuff day 1 anyways.
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Serious question, would a Switch buyer in 2022 still be considered "late adopter" if the price of entry remains the same as Day One?
Not to mention, as Concernt reiterated, Nintendo has stated that they are actually supply-constrained even now (while still maintaining their 21 million-unit FY target).

So "Early adopter" I get: full price, relatively soon after product is released.
"Late adopter" I always took to mean needs that enticement of lower entry price to hit their purchase threshold?

On the other hand ... this is year freakin 6 on the market! 🤔

Confused and impressed!

Zelda
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Speaking of release windows, how late does Nintendo define "Spring 2023"? Does that make May or June as the cutoff?

I do not think this will be the strategy, but a March 2023 announcement for a June release of both a new system alongside the new Zelda at least has that switch anniversary thing kinda going for it.

Only three months of ramp-up to release of a new system feels too short tho.
 
uncleoptimus said:
Speaking of release windows, how late does Nintendo define "Spring 2023"? Does that make May or June as the cutoff?
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Spring 2023 timeslot will be whatever works the best for Nintendo, I would just think about it as March-June and it can release at any time. Imo Nintendo would prefer a March release but if they cant make it will be later, that was the strength of announcing it as Spring 2023 instead of Q1 23 or March 23
 
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uncleoptimus said:
Serious question, would a Switch buyer in 2022 still be considered "late adopter" if the price of entry remains the same as Day One?
Not to mention, as Concernt reiterated, Nintendo has stated that they are actually supply-constrained even now (while still maintaining their 21 million-unit FY target).

So "Early adopter" I get: full price, relatively soon after product is released.
"Late adopter" I always took to mean needs that enticement of lower entry price to hit their purchase threshold?

On the other hand ... this is year freakin 6 on the market! 🤔

Confused and impressed!



Speaking of release windows, how late does Nintendo define "Spring 2023"? Does that make May or June as the cutoff?

I do not think this will be the strategy, but a March 2023 announcement for a June release of both a new system alongside the new Zelda at least has that switch anniversary thing kinda going for it.

Only three months of ramp-up to release of a new system feels too short tho.
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Scientifically, spring is basically Q2 of the calendar year. Officially it's March 21-June 21. But Nintendo I think calls June summer releases. Wind Waker came out in the west March 24, 2003 and I think they marketed it as a Spring release.

But.....

Japan historically, has based the Spring season on the blooming of the cherry blossom trees which is March to May. https://www.ana.co.jp/en/ca/japan-travel-planner/ideas/seasons/

So March could still be on the table (and falls within the fiscal year)
 
10k said:
Scientifically, spring is basically Q2 of the calendar year. Officially it's March 21-June 21. But Nintendo I think calls June summer releases. Wind Waker came out in the west March 24, 2003 and I think they marketed it as a Spring release.
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we have two relatively recent precedents:

ARMS was announced as spring and wound up on June 16

Kirby and the Forgotten Land was announced as spring and wound up on March 25

it seems like it's meteorological to me, especially with Splatoon's summer launch being in early September, but I still imagine a little earlier or a little later are on the table
 
Raccoon said:
we have two relatively recent precedents:

ARMS was announced as spring and wound up on June 16

Kirby and the Forgotten Land was announced as spring and wound up on March 25

it seems like it's meteorological to me, especially with Splatoon's summer launch being in early September, but I still imagine a little earlier or a little later are on the table
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I've already accepted BOTW 2 is slipping into Q2 2023. Still hopeful the Drake is coming by March 31, 2023 though.
 
uncleoptimus said:
Serious question, would a Switch buyer in 2022 still be considered "late adopter" if the price of entry remains the same as Day One?
Not to mention, as Concernt reiterated, Nintendo has stated that they are actually supply-constrained even now (while still maintaining their 21 million-unit FY target).

So "Early adopter" I get: full price, relatively soon after product is released.
"Late adopter" I always took to mean needs that enticement of lower entry price to hit their purchase threshold?
Click to expand...
In tech, "early adopter" and "later adopter" are more about risk thresholds than cost thresholds. How much are you willing to put up with bugs and growing pains at the same time that the platform is limited - or even investing in a platform that might not pan out.

Early adopters of the Switch paid 300 bucks not knowing about potential hardware issues, no NSO, and no major exclusives (Zelda was on the Wii U after all). You could look at the Wii U and wonder how much life this system had in it, or look at Arms* and 1-2 Switch and worry that Nintendo was going for the return of Wii-style waggle..

Late adopters know about Joy-Con drift, but also have better battery life, NSO is established (regardless of quality) and the breadth and depth of the library is clear. The price point may not have changed but the value proposition is clear. (Also, with a raft of discounted games from 3rd parties, arguably the price of maintaining your Switch has gone down)

*I'm kind of upset that this narrative set in for Arms, which is very different from the actual game, and I think constrained it's sales
 
oldpuck said:
In tech, "early adopter" and "later adopter" are more about risk thresholds than cost thresholds. How much are you willing to put up with bugs and growing pains at the same time that the platform is limited - or even investing in a platform that might not pan out.

Early adopters of the Switch paid 300 bucks not knowing about potential hardware issues, no NSO, and no major exclusives (Zelda was on the Wii U after all). You could look at the Wii U and wonder how much life this system had in it, or look at Arms* and 1-2 Switch and worry that Nintendo was going for the return of Wii-style waggle..

Late adopters know about Joy-Con drift, but also have better battery life, NSO is established (regardless of quality) and the breadth and depth of the library is clear. The price point may not have changed but the value proposition is clear. (Also, with a raft of discounted games from 3rd parties, arguably the price of maintaining your Switch has gone down)

*I'm kind of upset that this narrative set in for Arms, which is very different from the actual game, and I think constrained it's sales
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Just a minor quibble, and not to do with your overall point -- there was no "NSO" in the sense of classic games and other perks, but online play was free until those happened. Also not sure I agree about the launch lineup/"no major exclusives" part. BotW might as well be exclusive since Wii U was a branded failure, and several other major games including Splatoon 2 and Odyssey were already announced in January before launch.
 
As an early day 1 adopter I was buying it because Switch sounded cool and it's Nintendo and there's that neat Zelda game on it plus the next Mario. It really felt like I was holding a future tech with Switch, something I haven't felt since at least the N64 with Nintendo


The fact it would get all those great 3rd party games and PC cross play titles like Civ6 and become home of arguably the best JRPG lineup was a nice bonus. Someone buying the Switch now wouldn't have the feeling of holding the future but they'd be buying a machine with lots of games. If they buy it during the holidays chances are there were instore discounts, promos, rebate gift cards or one of the bundles Nintendo puts out around that time as well
 
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