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I agree with all but one thing:I was thinking about this earlier. The current OS for the Switch, while still barebones, does provide some useful features that we just expect. So for example, you can pause your game by hitting the Home button, putting the game into a save state until the execution is called to either continue playing the game, or stop it entirely to load another app. That alone for me was huge, especially compared to the Wii U, which used even more ram for the OS. So clearly, Nintendo learned a few things from the Wii U, and probably 3DS when designing the OS, and overall footprint for the Switch.
Given how custom t239 is in relation to the X1, which is off the shelf for the most part, Nintendo might be planning on adding additional features, though not to the extent we think, but the OS footprint might be similar in the end, along with improvements such as a better eShop app, plus the use of AV1 encoding/decoding. Though, if you think of this in terms of allocation percentages, the Switch OS uses 22.1% of the Switch's entire 4GB ram. (907MB / 4096MB = 22.1%)
With 12GB of Ram on tap, that would be 12,288MB, and if we use the same 22.1% allocation the Switch 1 uses, that comes out to a rather massive 2,715MB for the OS and all its function, which if I’m honest, don’t see Nintendo utilizing THAT much. If say somehow the Switch 2 the exact same amount of ram for its OS as Switch 1 (907MB), that's only 7.4% of the total Ram available for the system.
So it’s safe to say the Switch 2 will use somewhere between 907 - 2715MB for its OS. Don’t think it'll go any lower, or higher than that range.
A "better" eShop "app".
With accounts merged and the OS either broadly the same or practically identical, I don't see them having a seperate eShop at all. The current one runs "in browser" with HTML for a bunch of reasons. It's flexible and relatively portable. A slight redesign to the eShop around launch (across both generations) with much better performance on the new system thanks to the new CPU seems more likely to me, if they bother changing anything at all.
The idea of the new system having an all new storefront they have to update alongside the last generation one doesn't gel with the smooth transition, the shared accounts, or the fact that the design language of the eShop and Home Screen are effectively the same. Same for the NSO portal.
There might be more options visible on the next generation system, but these are essentially webpages. It makes sense (at least from my perspective) to keep them the same across generations if you can.