I mentioned it in the past, that would be the most Nintendo thing ever to somehow downclock Drake to X1 level of performance in BC mode
I'm not really expecting them to do it though. How likely is it that Nvidia has managed to fit an X1 in the larger Switch 2?
The tricky thing for Nintendo is that getting exactly TX1 levels of performance isn't really going to be possible. Back on the Wii, when playing Gamecube games Nintendo would clock the CPU and GPU down to the same clocks as the Gamecube ran at, and likewise with Wii games on the Wii U. Because Nintendo reused the same hardware architectures across generations, they were able to guarantee that games would run
precisely the same as on the older hardware*. There's a good reason to do this, as it's possible that some games would have unexpected bugs when running at higher clock speeds or on more powerful hardware, so running at the same clocks speeds on functionally identical hardware means not having to test hundreds of games to see if any of them break in strange ways.
This approach to BC really hobbled Nintendo with the Wii U, and thankfully they've dropped it for Switch 2, where instead of using the exact same A57 CPU cores and Maxwell GPU architecture as before, they're using newer iterations with (presumably) A78 cores and an Ampere GPU. On the CPU side, the A78 will be able to directly run code compiled for the A57 cores in the original Switch, but because it's a different architecture, it's not going to run it at the same speed. Even clocked down to the same 1GHz, the A78 is going to run almost all code faster, and may even run some code slower, if it was very tightly optimised for the A57.
On the GPU side, it's no longer binary compatible with shaders compiled for Maxwell, so there will have to be a compatibility layer which converts compiled shaders from Maxwell to Ampere. This will again mean potential performance differences compared to the original Switch, even at identical clock speed, with some code running faster or slower depending on architectural differences (and how good the compatibility layer is at generating performant Ampere shader code). Because Nintendo can't guarantee identical performance to the original Switch, they will likely have to err on the side of higher performance, to ensure that, even in the worst case scenarios, performance is at least as good as the original hardware.
One side effect of this change in approach is that they have to do a lot more testing. In fact, I suspect that this is the reason news is coming out about BC now. Nintendo needs to test as many games as possible under BC, and they're not going to do that all in-house. My guess is that Nintendo have been testing their BC solution with their first-partly titles for some time, and have recently become happy enough with the performance and compatibility to expand out to third parties, asking them to test their games and provide feedback. Hence Nate's comment that "testing is underway". I would assume the main focus will be on the GPU compatibility layer, catching edge cases not present in Nintendo's games, but they'll also be on the lookout for any performance issues.
My guess is that we'll get slightly improved performance in BC mode, with games hitting their framerate caps a bit more often and running at slightly higher resolutions in cases where dynamic resolution is present, but I don't expect major performance improvements. One important factor will be battery life, so I'd expect Nintendo to choose clocks in BC mode that are just high enough to guarantee as good or better performance than the original Switch and leave it at that. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo use an increase in battery life on Switch 1 games as part of their pitch for people to upgrade, so there's an incentive to lean more towards modest clocks and better battery life than trying to squeeze every bit of performance they can out of previous-gen games.
* I suspect there are probably some very small performance differences due to smaller things like changes to the cache, but it's clear than Nintendo were trying to achieve as close to identical performance as possible.