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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

It's clear that we'll have to wait longer for some news... probably a new leak.

The lack of chips could last until 2025 (if things don't get even worse šŸ˜¢) and I don't see why Nintendo has to wait for better times, when new devices (pc, smartphones, tv, cars etc) are continuously announced and released.

AptExemplaryCanvasback-size_restricted.gif
 
It will be crazy if the rumored PS5 Pro and Xbox Series XX comes out late next year (highly rumored) and we're all still posting here in this thread waiting for news on new hardware from Nintendo. Really hope this doesn't happen.
I didnā€™t keep up on those rumors. Can you point me somewhere?
 
It will be crazy if the rumored PS5 Pro and Xbox Series XX comes out late next year (highly rumored) and we're all still posting here in this thread waiting for news on new hardware from Nintendo. Really hope this doesn't happen.
I doubt there will be Pro consoles for either Xbox or Playstation. The Xbox One X sold about 7m, theres no way they recouped the R&D costs and the cost of giving everybody at E3 THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL CONSOLE t-shirt. And the PS4 Pro did not do much better.
 
The fact itā€™s still hard to find PS5ā€™s/XsX on store shelves I really canā€™t see pro level consoles coming anytime soon if ever.
 
It will be crazy if the rumored PS5 Pro and Xbox Series XX comes out late next year (highly rumored) and we're all still posting here in this thread waiting for news on new hardware from Nintendo. Really hope this doesn't happen.
Only rumor related to Xbox I have seen from somewhat reliable sources is a Xbox revision (like Switch V1 vs V2) with a more efficient chip, which is expected always from both companies. And I still doubt a ā€˜slimā€™ version of any of these two will release any time soon.
 
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I doubt there will be Pro consoles for either Xbox or Playstation. The Xbox One X sold about 7m, theres no way they recouped the R&D costs and the cost of giving everybody at E3 THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL CONSOLE t-shirt. And the PS4 Pro did not do much better.

Do we have a sales figure for PS4 Pro?
 
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This is not a terribly helpful post. No, as in a hardware launch doesn't typically mean increased expenses?
Sorry, swamped at work.

The steeper decline in operating profit versus sales is multifactorial.

Look at the key drivers of operating expense - R&D and advertising - forecast for next year is barely up. So that means they are guiding to much lower gross profit. I bet (almost for sure) on a constant-currency-basis, advertising is down.

I suspect the primary driver there is the assumption of 210m software units vs. 235m in the now-competed year. There could be some COGS headwinds on hardware too.

Guidance isnā€™t a tell they they are launching new hardware, imo.
 
Itā€™s one of many possible causes for those expenses. Not necessarily the most likely one.
Oh I never said or implied it was. I don't think that operating expenses increasing is any sort of evidence pointing to new hardware, just that it could be one of the causes.
 
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Increased expenses are usually before a hardware launch for R&D , but i feel like this case is different.
No complete new concept, even if then only 1 isntead of 2 platforms, the development was maybe spread ore with the pandemic, ...

PS5Pro? i thought we where dreaming, but a PS5 pro wont happen for at least 2 years. There is literary no point except a fuckton of cost.

People still cant get base consoles, games are being released for PS4 still in paralell... no chance.
 
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Increased expenses could be part of their hiring spree ? (And also as mentioned the new building) If it was any other company I would say acquistions lol
 
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Sorry, swamped at work.

The steeper decline in operating profit versus sales is multifactorial.

Look at the key drivers of operating expense - R&D and advertising - forecast for next year is barely up. So that means they are guiding to much lower gross profit. I bet (almost for sure) on a constant-currency-basis, advertising is down.

I suspect the primary driver there is the assumption of 210m software units vs. 235m in the now-competed year. There could be some COGS headwinds on hardware too.

Guidance isnā€™t a tell they they are launching new hardware, imo.
Hmmm I'm not well versed in financial lingo but wouldn't net sales include their software sales? And net sales overall are just down 5% on the forecast, whereas net profit is down nearly 29%. If software sales were the primary driver of that decrease, and software sales are included in their net sales, wouldn't the net sales decrease be a lot higher?

I don't know where to find their operating expense forecast, does it really show no major increase for anything?
 
Hmmm I'm not well versed in financial lingo but wouldn't net sales include their software sales? And net sales overall are just down 5% on the forecast, whereas net profit is down nearly 29%. If software sales were the primary driver of that decrease, and software sales are included in their net sales, wouldn't the net sales decrease be a lot higher?

I don't know where to find their operating expense forecast, does it really show no major increase for anything?

1. Yes sales includes software but it also includes translational and transactional difference from FX.

2. Iā€™m not sure how else to explain it to you. Guidance assumes fewer software unit and fewer hardware unit.

3. Look at the filing. Page 14.

4. They are low balling guidance.
 


Nate what is your take on this No comment thing.

For me its a clear sign, that a Switch Pro is definitely planned for this FY.

You just cant say nothing, vecause it fuels rumors via Bloomberg etc. Thats the farthest of all possibilities imaginable.

Business doesnt work like this, and these rumors etc. are good for a company.


Its still insane to me, that after all these years and occurrings we still have so pessimistic people.

Remember GCN vs RDNA on PS5 and XSX?

OMG that was wild: ā€žNo its impossible, never ever, they will never release in 2020, even 2021 is in danger becaude of COVIDā€¦.

Do these type of comments also make you sometime angry?šŸ˜…šŸ˜‚
 
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1. Yes sales includes software but it also includes translational and transactional difference from FX.

2. Iā€™m not sure how else to explain it to you. Guidance assumes fewer software unit and fewer hardware unit.

3. Look at the filing. Page 14.

4. They are low balling guidance.
Team March 2023. . .
 
1. Yes sales includes software but it also includes translational and transactional difference from FX.

2. Iā€™m not sure how else to explain it to you. Guidance assumes fewer software unit and fewer hardware unit.

3. Look at the filing. Page 14.

4. They are low balling guidance.
Okay regardless of the outcome I'm genuinely interested in this stuff so let me try to discuss it a different way:

This is how they determine ordinary and operating profit:
642hluI.png

(page 7 from the release)

For FY 23 they're forecasting net sales of 1,600 bn yen, operating profit of 500bn yen, and ordinary profit of 480bn yen, to get a net profit of 340bn yen.

If we use the same methodology in this sheet above, starting with 1,600 bn yen for net sales, then they're expecting cost of sales + selling, general and administrative expenses to total 1,100 bn yen, which is basically flat on last year. Then, the operating profit is subject to non-operating income and non-operating expenses, which last year totaled to be a gain of 78 bn yen. However, this year they're expecting that to instead be a loss of 20bn yen. That's kinda what I'm confused about I guess, they're expecting a nearly 100bn yen swing in expenses, particularly non-operating expenses it seems.

Could that be explained by their new building?
 
It will be crazy if the rumored PS5 Pro and Xbox Series XX comes out late next year (highly rumored) and we're all still posting here in this thread waiting for news on new hardware from Nintendo. Really hope this doesn't happen.
If Sony and Microsoft can release new hardware hell if several other companies can release new hardware amidst the chip shortage, you will still have people that do not post in this thread come into the thread and say ā€œoh they should wait until the shortages get betterā€œ.

You will also get posts about how they should stockpile for an adequate launch, when no other company is doing this. I do not understand why there is this incessant belief that Nintendo is somehow exclusive when it comes to chip shortage and that they can get around it when no other company can get around it. Or that they cannot release hardware when thereā€™s several other companies that are releasing hardware despite there being a semiconductor shortage

How does this make sense sway? How does it make sense.

I understand some people do not want a new model because they want to keep getting their moneys worth for what they already bought, but please do not behold Nintendo as some exclusive company that is exempt from all of the stuff that goes on.

Because spoiler: they arenā€™t.

You can give the argument ā€œthey march to the beat of their own drumā€œ, but the drum goes out the window as soon as you look up what they actually are relative to anybody else. The type of hardware they put out is unique yes, the type of software they put out is unique yes, however they are not above everybody else in this industry. They are just another player, another fish in the pond, another rival to another company for space and resources, another rival to a company for consumer mind share and spending, etc.
 
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One of these days Nate is gonna respond with a Rorschach gif when he's sick of our shenanigans šŸ˜‚
 
Hasnā€™t this been known/ speculated since before it launched?

Cpu is the same as the others. Gpu is the easiest thing to scale down. The 7.5 gb Ram was always the likeliest candidate for causing dev headaches.

Donā€™t know how this relates to the dlss model though.

MS has a mandate that every game on Xbox needs a series s version. There is no way Drake switch will get every game.
 
Okay regardless of the outcome I'm genuinely interested in this stuff so let me try to discuss it a different way:

This is how they determine ordinary and operating profit:
642hluI.png

(page 7 from the release)

For FY 23 they're forecasting net sales of 1,600 bn yen, operating profit of 500bn yen, and ordinary profit of 480bn yen, to get a net profit of 340bn yen.

If we use the same methodology in this sheet above, starting with 1,600 bn yen for net sales, then they're expecting cost of sales + selling, general and administrative expenses to total 1,100 bn yen, which is basically flat on last year. Then, the operating profit is subject to non-operating income and non-operating expenses, which last year totaled to be a gain of 78 bn yen. However, this year they're expecting that to instead be a loss of 20bn yen. That's kinda what I'm confused about I guess, they're expecting a nearly 100bn yen swing in expenses, particularly non-operating expenses it seems.

Could that be explained by their new building?

Margin on all aggregate non-SW related net revenue(sales) is lower than margin on all SW related net revenue. Ergo, lower SW & SW net revenue decreases total margin by a larger amount than the increase (or smaller decrease) corresponding with non-SW net revenue.

Does that make sense?

Here's a super generalized example to show directional effect - rev drops by 5% but profit drops substantially more:

J1PQxsg.png
 
Well, bandwidth would probably still be the big bottleneck, but there's only so much to be done about that.
Quantity of ram-wise... the options are there, it's a matter of willing to pay the price. Still, a floor of 8 GB (derived from 128-bit bus width) isn't too bad a scenario, given the Series S's existence.
The main suspect seems to be the memory requirements related to ray tracing? How much do we lean towards the difference between Nvidia and AMD's implementations (as Alex brought up the difference in BVH compaction) being the/a critical factor here?
 
Hasnā€™t this been known/ speculated since before it launched?

Cpu is the same as the others. Gpu is the easiest thing to scale down. The 7.5 gb Ram was always the likeliest candidate for causing dev headaches.

Donā€™t know how this relates to the dlss model though.
There's the possibility that Nintendo equips the DLSS model* with 8 GB of RAM, similar to how the Xbox Series S has 8 GB of RAM with a bandwidth of 224 GB/s (with 2 GB of RAM with a bandwidth of 56 GB/s).

And the DLSS model*'s RAM bandwidth in the best case scenario has been reduced by more than half in comparison to the Xbox Series S (102.4 GB/s vs 224 GB/s).
 
There's the possibility that Nintendo equips the DLSS model* with 8 GB of RAM, similar to how the Xbox Series S has 8 GB of RAM with a bandwidth of 224 GB/s (with 2 GB of RAM with a bandwidth of 56 GB/s).

And the DLSS model*'s RAM bandwidth in the best case scenario has been reduced by more than half in comparison to the Xbox Series S (102.4 GB/s vs 224 GB/s).
As I wrote in my edit, MS have mandated that every game on Xbox has to be on the series s. Which makes it in practice makes the series s ram the baseline for current gen development. Every game has to scale down to the series s and the ram situation causes the most headaches. Drake will never get that kind of third party support.
 
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Margin on all aggregate non-SW related net revenue(sales) is lower than margin on all SW related net revenue. Ergo, lower SW & SW net revenue decreases total margin by a larger amount than the increase (or smaller decrease) corresponding with non-SW net revenue.

Does that make sense?

Here's a super generalized example to show directional effect - rev drops by 5% but profit drops substantially more:

J1PQxsg.png
But why would the ratio of SW related sales to non-SW related sales change so drastically this year? Their business should be the exact same as it was this year.

I'm with Skittzo here, I can't see the reason for the difference without some outside expense such as building costs, an anticipated investment write-off, or exceptional R&D expenses.
 
Margin on all aggregate non-SW related net revenue(sales) is lower than margin on all SW related net revenue. Ergo, lower SW & SW net revenue decreases total margin by a larger amount than the increase (or smaller decrease) corresponding with non-SW net revenue.

Does that make sense?

Here's a super generalized example to show directional effect - rev drops by 5% but profit drops substantially more:

J1PQxsg.png
That helps a bit, thank you. I definitely don't have a mind for finance so I'm still unclear on a bit so I guess I'll defer to the experts.
 
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It will be crazy if the rumored PS5 Pro and Xbox Series XX comes out late next year (highly rumored) and we're all still posting here in this thread waiting for news on new hardware from Nintendo. Really hope this doesn't happen.
How in the hell are they gonna launch a pro during a chip shortage when they cant even sell the base units
 
But why would the ratio of SW related sales to non-SW related sales change so drastically this year? Their business should be the exact same as it was this year.

I'm with Skittzo here, I can't see the reason for the difference without some outside expense such as building costs, an anticipated investment write-off, or exceptional R&D expenses.

FY3/22 achieved: 23M Hardware : 236M Software
FY3/23 forecast: 21M Hardware : 210M Software

Right off the bat, the HW:SW ratio favors 2021 in raw units. Additionally we know for sure that OLED share should be higher this year, which pushes ASP this year up. Perhaps more 3rd party forecasted sales (aka lower net sale/rev per unit). Obviously we don't know for sure why, but just wanted to offer an explanation for how this could play out broadly.
 
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If I can be honest Iā€™m kind of over it. Nintendo releasing a new switch model isnā€™t exciting me. ESPECIALLY the fact that there is no guarantee that it will get third party heavy hitters. We have a console that has sold over 105 million and still hasnā€™t gotten a COD, Madden, or ā€œmodernā€ GTA. Itā€™s ridiculous to me. Steamdeck looking like more of an option for what I want in a handheld hybrid.
 
If I can be honest Iā€™m kind of over it. Nintendo releasing a new switch model isnā€™t exciting me. ESPECIALLY the fact that there is no guarantee that it will get third party heavy hitters. We have a console that has sold over 105 million and still hasnā€™t gotten a COD, Madden, or ā€œmodernā€ GTA. Itā€™s ridiculous to me. Steamdeck looking like more of an option for what I want in a handheld hybrid.
Yeah if you just want third parties just get a steam deck. Nintendo is never gonna have them all, simply because they don't want to compete with Mario and Zelda every holiday season.
 
Yeah, the next switch is definitely getting announced this fiscal year. Probably a trailer in October, and then a release in April, to coincide with the Mario movie.
 
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If I can be honest Iā€™m kind of over it. Nintendo releasing a new switch model isnā€™t exciting me. ESPECIALLY the fact that there is no guarantee that it will get third party heavy hitters. We have a console that has sold over 105 million and still hasnā€™t gotten a COD, Madden, or ā€œmodernā€ GTA. Itā€™s ridiculous to me. Steamdeck looking like more of an option for what I want in a handheld hybrid.
Iā€™ve always said that itā€™s a lot of politics rather then hardware power; hardware power helps but itā€™s only a bone throw with other reasons being used to as to why this time they canā€™t or wonā€™t put games on there.

If you want the best Nintendo games (emulated) & 3rd parties then the Deck is probably your best bet at this point.
 
The main suspect seems to be the memory requirements related to ray tracing? How much do we lean towards the difference between Nvidia and AMD's implementations (as Alex brought up the difference in BVH compaction) being the/a critical factor here?
I don't know if this answers your question, but 4A Games mentioned in an interview with Wccftech that the GPU, not the RAM, is the issue with the Xbox Series S. And I've mentioned 4A Games, because 4A Games mentioned being committed to ray tracing in an interview with Digital Foundry.
 
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If I can be honest Iā€™m kind of over it. Nintendo releasing a new switch model isnā€™t exciting me. ESPECIALLY the fact that there is no guarantee that it will get third party heavy hitters. We have a console that has sold over 105 million and still hasnā€™t gotten a COD, Madden, or ā€œmodernā€ GTA. Itā€™s ridiculous to me. Steamdeck looking like more of an option for what I want in a handheld hybrid.
Our most trusted insiders, Nate and Mochi, said there will be several third party exclusives. You should expect a third party support boom the day it launches and more in the future if it becomes a success (it definitely will).
Yeah if you just want third parties just get a steam deck. Nintendo is never gonna have them all, simply because they don't want to compete with Mario and Zelda every holiday season.
"Mario and Zelda every holiday season" is a nightmare scenario for me, a Switch only gamer. I'm tired of both of them after 30 years full of them, I'd rather have Nintendo invest in new IPs. And give third party some breathing room.
 
There's the possibility that Nintendo equips the DLSS model* with 8 GB of RAM, similar to how the Xbox Series S has 8 GB of RAM with a bandwidth of 224 GB/s (with 2 GB of RAM with a bandwidth of 56 GB/s).

And the DLSS model*'s RAM bandwidth in the best case scenario has been reduced by more than half in comparison to the Xbox Series S (102.4 GB/s vs 224 GB/s).
Despite the bandwidth reduction Iā€™m really hoping that the low amount of RAM in the Series S actually ends up increasing the number of ports to Switch 4K.
 
Please read this new, consolidated staff post before posting.

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