StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Deleted member 887]

I wouldn't be surprised with a 2023 release, at any window. Announcement, manufacture, and release are separate process, dictated by different forces.

The evidence is thick on the ground that Nintendo intended to release this device in the arena of fall 2022, and that external partners were still being told that in September of last year. Should that date slip to 2023, it could reflect any number of things - but a 6 month delay doesn't indicate a radical rethink of die size, process node, or feature set. There simply isn't enough time to do that.

Release schedule data comes from many of the same sources that our assumptions about the hardware are coming from, and they tend to confirm each other. If you want to start speculating for dramatic differences from that baseline, you have to start cherry picking data points, believing half of what sources X, Y, and Z have said, while disbelieving the other half, even when X, Y, and Z agree on both halves. That starts to strain the imagination.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I don't think devkits are indicative because it was likely delayed. It's hard to believe that bloomberg and everyone else were all wrong when they said a powerful switch was coming last year. They probably weren't wrong, plans just changed.

The only way it was delayed if there was an issue on their end in terms of development, but nothing indicates that there was a delay and the most reliable information was that it is a derivative of an existing family of chip that was planned way before now and releases this year.

People keep pointing to the OLED model but we knew about that model well in advance from the firmware.

Mind you, firmware isn’t always indicative of everything ie what will release, we didn’t know about the N3DS at all until it was announced.

The data breach indicates that they are well along on a product and have already set the stage for what the hardware will be. And this is planned at the beginning, they don’t add it as time goes on (or they won’t get anything out lol with that mindset).


Even then, it isn’t like they couldn’t simulate the performance with NVidia’s technologies.


With all that said, team 2023 will win this battle

 

[TinyPikachu]

Well… Gives me more time to save up money if the new Switch is released in Spring 2023.

 

[GamerJM]

I'm a strong believer in a Spring 2023 release now. They're gonna want a Switch 1 repeat I think.

 

[ShaunSwitch]

My personal conclusion based on the leak is simply "it wasn't just started, and it's not done yet."

If you want to talk about sampling, though, devkits were supposedly out in late 2020. If that's true, then it's a much better indication of progress than anything in the leaked files.

Great, thanks for confirming. Wasn't there something in the leak that indicated hardware testing on the actual chip has been performed in February? If this is the case and its final silicon I'd say within one year of that for the chip to go into mass production makes sense.

I don't think devkits are indicative because it was likely delayed. It's hard to believe that bloomberg and everyone else were all wrong when they said a powerful switch was coming last year. They probably weren't wrong, plans just changed.

I think it's pretty evident places like bloomberg got rumours of the Drake switch and the OLED model crossed. I think it's more likely the OLED was always the 2021 hardware with Drake always being planned for whatever window it does release in.

One thing worth considering. Some of us are thinking spring 2023 for Drake now because BOTW2 is delayed, partially based on the fact the original switch launch was delayed from holiday 2016 to March 2017 because BOTW needed more time, but the current situation isn't the same.

Firstly, what games were available at switch launch? I remember wanting as much software as I could get and I ended up with BOTW, Bomberman R, Has Been Heroes, 1-2 Switch. Not a stellar line up. If they hadn't delayed the hardware along with BOTW it would have been an abysmal launch.

This time around there is no need to delay the hardware for the same reason, we already have Xenoblade title, pokemon title and possibly a new Mario title launching holiday 2022, these titles could all be cross gen, there's also the entire back catalogue to lean on and unannounced releases, along with third party Drake exclusives we have been told are coming.

It isn't the same situation at all. So whilst for me, a launch alongside BOTW2 always felt more likely, holiday 2022 isn't ruled out just because the launch window of BOTW2 has moved.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I think that, if Mario is set for 2023 and it’s a holiday game that can also work.

 

[totofogo]

Hello hardware enthusiasts! I come to you as an OLED lover wondering if I will soon meet a tough decision with the Switch "Pro" - are there rumors either way regarding whether the new model would include an OLED?

I'm imaging something like

• the current base model is retired
• OLED becomes base model and new Switch is introduced which also has an OLED Screen

or perhaps

• the OLED is discontinued, base model is discounted
• new Switch is introduced which has an OLED Screen

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Great, thanks for confirming. Wasn't there something in the leak that indicated hardware testing on the actual chip has been performed in February? If this is the case and its final silicon I'd say within one year of that for the chip to go into mass production makes sense.

The files were edited in feb I think at NVidia, idk about testing.

 

[Hermii]

Happy to provide the math and examples

	Ops / CUDA	CUDA	Operating frequency	FP32	FP32 in TFLOPS
Tegra X1 @ 15W	2​	256​	1000​	512000​	0.512​
Switch Dock	2​	256​	768​	393216​	0.393216​
Switch Undock	2​	256​	384​	196608​	0.196608​

The stock Tegra X1 chip, when clocked at ~1000 MHz gives you 0.5 TFLOPS of FP32 (or 1 TFLOP of FP16). This is consistent with the Nvidia marketing around the Terga X1 performance. (Some articles were very tricky, and called it a "1 TFLOP machine", but when you dug in, they were quoting the FP16 performance even though the standard is FP32)


Once you lower the clocks down, which allows it to run cooler, allowing for a less expensive cooling solution, extends the chips lifespan, and lowers the power required when running on battery. We should expect Nintendo to repeat this and underclock again.

You forgot, lower clocks also gives better yields,.

 

[Mr.Gamerson]

There are more than enough quality titles releasing by the end of fall to sell out the initial shipment of Switch NXT consoles Nintendo can make. BOTW2 being delayed gives them more time to analyze demand and make special editions. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the console still launches late this year.

 

[LiC]

Great, thanks for confirming. Wasn't there something in the leak that indicated hardware testing on the actual chip has been performed in February? If this is the case and its final silicon I'd say within one year of that for the chip to go into mass production makes sense.

I don't know of anything like that.

The files were edited in feb I think at NVidia, idk about testing.

The last updated date of all the files is just the day the breach happened, so that doesn't tell you anything. The only actual evidence of updates is mostly in dates that were entered manually in copyright headers and things like that, but those aren't always kept up to date. Add to that the fact this is a snapshot of just one branch of a source control repository from one individual checkout, and there's very little reliable date information to be had. The best you can say is that some files were updated at least as recently as X year.

 

[Sol]

I'm a strong believer in a Spring 2023 release now. They're gonna want a Switch 1 repeat I think.

Same. It would be exactly 6 years after the release of the Switch and BotW.

Makes too much sense.

 

[ShaunSwitch]

I don't know of anything like that.

The last updated date of all the files is just the day the breach happened, so that doesn't tell you anything. The only actual evidence of updates is mostly in dates that were entered manually in copyright headers and things like that, but those aren't always kept up to date. Add to that the fact this is a snapshot of just one branch of a source control repository from one individual checkout, and there's very little reliable date information to be had. The best you can say is that some files were updated at least as recently as X year.

Thanks for confirming, must have misread somewhere.

 

[menx64]

Same. It would be exactly 6 years after the release of the Switch and BotW.

Makes too much sense.

I'd love this to become a trend to be honest. New hardware with a GOTG is a killer combination. I would expect botw2 outsell the console as Botw did back in the day!

 

[Hermii]

I'd love this to become a trend to be honest. New hardware with a GOTG is a killer combination. I would expect botw2 outsell the console as Botw did back in the day!

I do expect a lot more people will play BOTW 2 on Switch 1.

Its a completely different situation than the Switch launch.

 

[Serif]

Hello hardware enthusiasts! I come to you as an OLED lover wondering if I will soon meet a tough decision with the Switch "Pro" - are there rumors either way regarding whether the new model would include an OLED?

I'm imaging something like

• the current base model is retired
• OLED becomes base model and new Switch is introduced which also has an OLED Screen

I don't think there are specific rumors. Current speculation is that next Switch might reuse OLED parts, like chassis, screen, and battery, for ease of production. I think the OLED may become the base model, I'm not expecting a price drop this soon but maybe the Lite gets one.

Personally, I am confident it will. I am expecting a $400+ device, where a selling point is improved graphics, so an OLED is not only fitting but feels necessary. If they enable HDR on the OLED screen then they continue to market improved handheld play with the vivid colors and contrast.

 

[menx64]

I do expect a lot more people will play BOTW 2 on Switch 1.

Its a completely different situation than the Switch launch.

I'd do it if I am not able to buy a switch2 day one, which tbh is a likely situation since I am in Costa Rica and Nintendo will probably focus their shipments to mayor markets, but it will not stop me from buying it twice. I have BOTW both on Switch and wiiU.

 

[BlueManifest]

progress on T239 in the leak also indicates a product that is very far along and likely ready to at least sample soon.

Did I miss something in the last few days?

 

[Simba1]

• March 2017. - Switch and Zelda BotW launch
• March 2023. - Switch 2 and Zelda BotW 2 launch

No surprises here.

 

[Skittzo]

• March 2017. - Switch and Zelda BotW launch
• March 2023. - Switch 2 and Zelda BotW 2 launch

No surprises here.

Huge surprise there. Wii U was dead in 2016, Switch is not dead in 2022. It makes no sense for them to announce and release a brand new generation in less than 2 months, and it makes less sense for them to announce it before holiday 2022.

March 2023 is most definitely their plan B if something goes wrong on the hardware side.

 

[mariodk18]

Definitely feel like 3D Mario for this holiday. Would pair well with the movie.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Huge surprise there. Wii U was dead in 2016, Switch is not dead in 2022. It makes no sense for them to announce and release a brand new generation in less than 2 months, and it makes less sense for them to announce it before holiday 2022.

March 2023 is most definitely their plan B if something goes wrong on the hardware side.

I'm not necessarily seeing the problem so much, especially if they make sure to highlight the cross compatibility of games. Sony and MS aren't having too much trouble here and third parties are still selling games

 

[BlueManifest]

Huge surprise there. Wii U was dead in 2016, Switch is not dead in 2022. It makes no sense for them to announce and release a brand new generation in less than 2 months, and it makes less sense for them to announce it before holiday 2022.

March 2023 is most definitely their plan B if something goes wrong on the hardware side.

The new switch doesn’t mean they have to stop selling the old switch

 

[Skittzo]

I'm not necessarily seeing the problem so much, especially if they make sure to highlight the cross compatibility of games. Sony and MS aren't having too much trouble here and third parties are still selling games

Nintendo is a lot more risk averse. They still announce their revisions 2-3 months out to avoid a drop in hardware sales, I don't see them announcing a new gen before their biggest hardware sales period of the year.

The new switch doesn’t mean they have to stop selling the old switch

But (some) people will stop buying old Switches when they know a new one is coming, and doing this right before the holiday shopping season would put a huge dent in their hardware demand.

 

[Hermii]

I'd do it if I am not able to buy a switch2 day one, which tbh is a likely situation since I am in Costa Rica and Nintendo will probably focus their shipments to mayor markets, but it will not stop me from buying it twice. I have BOTW both on Switch and wiiU.

Lets hope there won't be 2 seperate SKUs.

 

[menx64]

Huge surprise there. Wii U was dead in 2016, Switch is not dead in 2022. It makes no sense for them to announce and release a brand new generation in less than 2 months, and it makes less sense for them to announce it before holiday 2022.

March 2023 is most definitely their plan B if something goes wrong on the hardware side.

Spring is still very vague and it can change. They could have big blow up in February and release it late April/June. Not technically spring, but those things happen.

 

[LiC]

Did I miss something in the last few days?

Can't speak for anyone else, but I haven't seen anything like that in the leak, and haven't stated anything to that effect about it here.

 

[BlueManifest]

know a new one is coming, and doing this right before the holiday shopping season would put a huge dent in their hardware demand.

Any lost demand in the old switch would just be replaced by the new one, doesn’t matter if it’s dead or not in the larger picture

The ps2 wasn’t dead when the ps3 came out either

 

[mariodk18]

The Switch was new in 2016 and the Wii U was dead at that point. No harm announcing it in October. But the new switch will be a familiar concept and can be announced in early January for a late March release.

 

[BobNintendofan]

The Switch was new in 2016 and the Wii U was dead at that point. No harm announcing it in October. But the new switch will be a familiar concept and can be announced in early January for a late March release.

The problem with such a sudden announcement to release is that it can cause extreme anger among people who recently bought a switch. Advanced warning decreases sales in the short term, but also increases perceived good will among consumers.

 

[ShaunSwitch]

Did I miss something in the last few days?

No I misread some previous information.

 

[Skittzo]

Spring is still very vague and it can change. They could have big blow up in February and release it late April/June. Not technically spring, but those things happen.

I mean, if the theory is that this just has to launch with BOTW2 then sure. But it's a lot more likely that their internal cutoff date to launch this is FY23, which ends March 31, 2023.

 

[Simba1]

Huge surprise there. Wii U was dead in 2016, Switch is not dead in 2022. It makes no sense for them to announce and release a brand new generation in less than 2 months, and it makes less sense for them to announce it before holiday 2022.

March 2023 is most definitely their plan B if something goes wrong on the hardware side.

Disagree, its not point about Wii U at all, but about timing, around 6 years later after Switch and Zelda BotW we probably getting next gen Switch launch with sequel to Zelda BotW.

I don't see nothing wrong with announcing "Switch 2" in January and release it in March (or April/May), this is not Wii U/Switch situation where Wii U was completely dead and they could announcing it more than 2-3 months before launch because couldnt effect on Wii U, current Switch is selling great and will keep selling very good in any case (different price points) and 90% of games will be cross gen, so they would not want to announce next gen Switch more than 2-3 months at max before launch, especially because there will be stock issues in any case and it will be sold out in any case.

Also, current Switch doesnt need to be dead in order to release next gen Switch hardware, they will probably keep selling them alongside for quite time in any case with huge majority of games being cross gen for at least 2 years.

 

[Pokemaniac]

If the delay to BotW 2 was hardware related, it was probably hardware driving the delay and not the other way around. Nintendo's 2022 schedule is pretty packed, and I find it hard to believe that they couldn't position some other game as the launch title instead.

I don't think devkits are indicative because it was likely delayed. It's hard to believe that bloomberg and everyone else were all wrong when they said a powerful switch was coming last year. They probably weren't wrong, plans just changed.

It's much more likely that two different devices were accidentally conflated than plans actually changing that significantly.

Hello hardware enthusiasts! I come to you as an OLED lover wondering if I will soon meet a tough decision with the Switch "Pro" - are there rumors either way regarding whether the new model would include an OLED?

I'm imaging something like

• the current base model is retired
• OLED becomes base model and new Switch is introduced which also has an OLED Screen

or perhaps

• the OLED is discontinued, base model is discounted
• new Switch is introduced which has an OLED Screen

There are no rumors about the specifics of the screen on the new hardware.

 

[menx64]

I mean, if the theory is that this just has to launch with BOTW2 then sure. But it's a lot more likely that their internal cutoff date to launch this is FY23, which ends March 31, 2023.

Even then, if the switch2 has a straight forward backward compatible solution, I dont think doing a late January reveal to a March 20th release would be a bad idea.

 

[Simba1]

The problem with such a sudden announcement to release is that it can cause extreme anger among people who recently bought a switch. Advanced warning decreases sales in the short term, but also increases perceived good will among consumers.

I dont think there would be any anger, it would be different price points and there would be stock issues in any case,
its not like they will selling much better thing for same price point so people would be angry.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Yes, they are, thanks for pointing it out I wrote my statement backwards. I meant that it makes no sense to launch the console and then launch the game 6 months later, because you would be better off just delaying the console launch.

This seems to assume they've only got one major game available that can make use of the new hardware. Back before Switch launch it seemed to be the case that either Mario or Zelda could've ended up the big launch game.

The uplift when moving from the GameCube to the Wii was about 2 X.

Well... yeah, it was just the same hardware running 50% faster. They'd have had to try hard to make something properly 5 years newer that was that feeble.

That works out to approximately up to 7X increase in GPU docked performance
and a 3X increase in undocked GPU performance.

Why advance in such an unbalanced way, unless this generation docked mode had proved to be by far the more popular?

 

[Q-True]

You forgot, lower clocks also gives better yields,.

Excellent point Hermii! And better yields means lower costs! Nintendo wants to keep this console affordable.

 

[Skittzo]

Even then, if the switch2 has a straight forward backward compatible solution, I dont think doing a late January reveal to a March 20th release would be a bad idea.

That's really the only possibility in my mind but it would still be kinda odd. It'll depend on how they plan to position and market it but it could work.

 

[BobNintendofan]

I gotta say there's a really weird mindset on this board that hardware plans can't ever be delayed. Obviously once things have gone into production, there's no way to back out, but assuming Nintendo planned for an early 2022 Switch 2 launch and saw massively increased demand in mid 2020 it's not unrealistic to believe they could have delayed the console and opted for a newer manufacturing process.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I gotta say there's a really weird mindset on this board that hardware plans can't ever be delayed. Obviously once things have gone into production, there's no way to back out, but assuming Nintendo planned for an early 2022 Switch 2 launch and saw massively increased demand in mid 2020 it's not unrealistic to believe they could have delayed the console and opted for a newer manufacturing process.

you seem to underestimate the time and costs of changing nodes

 

[Alovon11]

I gotta say there's a really weird mindset on this board that hardware plans can't ever be delayed. Obviously once things have gone into production, there's no way to back out, but assuming Nintendo planned for an early 2022 Switch 2 launch and saw massively increased demand in mid 2020 it's not unrealistic to believe they could have delayed the console and opted for a newer manufacturing process.

Well the idea is that FY2023 was always the target.

And that was made clear last year in 2021

So that window likely is locked.

It's just of When in FY23 it would be released.

you seem to underestimate the time and costs of changing nodes

Also this

 

[BobNintendofan]

Well the idea is that FY2023 was always the target.

And that was made clear last year in 2021

So that window likely is locked.

It's just of When in FY23 it would be released.

Also this

LMAO it was always clear, that's why everyone was telling me I was crazy for expecting 2023 a few days ago.

 

[BobNintendofan]

you seem to underestimate the time and costs of changing nodes

It can actually save money in the long run depending on a lot of factors. For example, they might be able to use a smaller battery, less plastic, etc. if they opt for a newer process. No doubt the upfront costs are higher, but I don't think Nintendo is so concerned about that with like 16 billion dollars in the bank and record yearly profits.

And of course, that doesn't even touch on the fact that a newer process can mean more sales of the hardware, from simply having a better product.

 

[Alovon11]

LMAO it was always clear, that's why everyone was telling me I was crazy for expecting 2023 a few days ago.

Were you expecting at latest March 2023?

Nintendo's FY23 is April 2022 to End of March 2023

So if you were expecting Holiday 2023, that would be FY24

 

[BobNintendofan]

Were you expecting at latest March 2023?

Nintendo's FY23 is April 2022 to End of March 2023

Yes, plenty of people here have been telling me that it is very obviously coming in 2022. Now that BotW was delayed the backtracking has begun. Now it was always early 2023. Which, to be fair, I actually think early 2023 isn't unreasonable unlike late 2022, but the blatant unseriousness I'm seeing with all of this speculation is sad.

 

[Skittzo]

Yes, plenty of people here have been telling me that it is very obviously coming in 2022. Now that BotW was delayed the backtracking has begun. Now it was always early 2023. Which, to be fair, I actually think early 2023 isn't unreasonable unlike late 2022, but the blatant unseriousness I'm seeing with all of this speculation is sad.

Please find anyone who told you it had to come in 2022 and couldn't slip to 2023.

The position of everyone in this thread who was expecting 2022 was that it could also slip to early 2023 if need be, and it has been that way for a very long time.

 

[Alovon11]

Yes, plenty of people here have been telling me that it is very obviously coming in 2022. Now that BotW was delayed the backtracking has begun. Now it was always early 2023. Which, to be fair, I actually think early 2023 isn't unreasonable unlike late 2022, but the blatant unseriousness I'm seeing with all of this speculation is sad.

I do say you may be overblowing the people saying it was guaranteed Holiday 2022.

It just was most likely to be Holiday 2022 at the time due to us still running off of the info that BOTW2 was targeting 2022 at the moment.

Now that BOTW2 has slipped into (Likely March) 2023 the most likely date has shifted accordingly

 

[Q-True]

Don't want to be that guy, but you are coming off as a bit aggressive.

Tablets, phones etc run in burst, they maybe 2.5 TFLOPS running at max but they quickly throttle so its a false equivalency. They also don't need to maintain that performance for 3+ hours.

We also have to consider the performance delta between docked and handheld mode. If Nintendo sticks to a 720p display (likely imo if they keep the form factor the same,) then the delta between docked and handheld will be even larger.

Whilst 600gflops is probably a little low I can see Nintendo running a 302mhz clock on the gpu giving us around 930gflops in handheld.

Also, regarding previous comments on late 2023 being likely. This is just as baseless as any claims anyone else has made. Most insiders stated a window of late 2022 - early 2023 and that's what I've seen most people agree with. The state of NVN2 and the progress on T239 in the leak also indicates a product that is very far along and likely ready to at least sample soon.

Claims of not having fab space for 5nm are baseless, Nvidia has secured 5nm TSMC capacity and reportedly has some Samsung 5nm capacity they could use later this year. The window for Drake in 2022 was always tight, for me the movement of BOTW2 makes spring 2023 for the Drake switch more likely and the leak, insiders and activity from nvidia makes this also a possibility.

Not saying late 2023 is not likely either, I'm just saying that there are no grounds to dismiss spring 2023 either and even holiday 2022 is still possible depending on what other releases Nintendo has up its sleeves.

I love your post ShaunSwitch!
I thought I was the only one who thinks Nintendo will go with a 720p OLED display for the Switch 4K.
Unless by the time they go to make the order, they can get a 1080p panel for less (LOL), I think they will go with 720p again.

I agree with what some of you are saying, that the CPU needs to match between handheld and docked.
Keeping the same CPU clocks between modes means that CPU power draw becomes a larger % of the overall power budget in handheld mode.

The Switch is our historical example where CPU clocks are the same in both modes, and then GPU is 2X higher in docked mode.

A more modern example is the Xbox Series of consoles. Both run the same games, just at different target resolutions (like Switch).
The CPU in both is similar (3.6 vs 3.8 GHz)
Series S targeting 1080p-1440p has 20 CUs with 4 TFLOPS
Series X targets 4K and has 52 CUs with 12.16 TFLOPS

That is a 3X GPU power jump based on the target resolution. (Moving from 1440p to 4K is only a 2.4X increase in pixels, but not all Series S games run at 1440p.)

If the Switch 4K runs in handheld on a 720p screen, and then targets 4K on a TV, then the divide between the target resolutions is even larger. (Yes DLSS will help here but you still need to push 4X more pixels when moving from 720p to 1440p. Moving from 720p to native 4K would be a 9.6X increase, so we know that is not happening.)

Not sure if its even possible in the power budget, but if they can run the same # of cores at 2GHz in both handheld and docked, that would be crazy awesome!
Scared we are going to end up with 4 CPU cores again, but hoping/dreaming we might get 6 or 8.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Excellent point Hermii! And better yields means lower costs! Nintendo wants to keep this console affordable.

It being clocked high or low doesn’t change the price.

I gotta say there's a really weird mindset on this board that hardware plans can't ever be delayed. Obviously once things have gone into production, there's no way to back out, but assuming Nintendo planned for an early 2022 Switch 2 launch and saw massively increased demand in mid 2020 it's not unrealistic to believe they could have delayed the console and opted for a newer manufacturing process.

It’s not that hardware can’t be delayed, it’s that if it is delayed, why are folks saying that they would release it the year directly after the proposed year? Ex: “it’s not coming 2022 because it got delayed to 2023 holiday!”

If you get a delay, it’s not a year, it’s perhaps 24-40months of a delay.