StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Hermii]

It being clocked high or low doesn’t change the price

It can if it affects yields.

Case in point, the ps5 has terrible yields mainly because of it’s crazy high clock speeds. Less chips are usable, so price per chip goes up.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

It can if it affects yields.

Case in point, the ps5 has terrible yields mainly because of it’s crazy high clock speeds. Less chips are usable, so price per chip goes up.

That’s the price of the wafer, not the price of the individual console.

And Nintendo would have to go some crazy high clocks for that to even happen, no one is expecting that. Like at all.

No one even mentioned this.

PS5 has a GPU at 2.23GHz, which is crazy high.

 

[Kenka]

@BobNintendofan : unsubstantiated claims are frowned upon in general. I am not talking strictly about forums.

Personally, I do not enjoy your posts.

 

[Deleted member 887]

LMAO it was always clear, that's why everyone was telling me I was crazy for expecting 2023 a few days ago.

So, Bob, I just went through all your posts because I feel like there is a lot of yelling in circles, and I'm realizing that I don't know that we're even agreeing on the thing we're arguing about.

Prior to today, you've only mentioned the word 2023 once, in a sentence where you also held up 2024

a combination of covid pushing up demand for their console, and the chip shortage caused them to push their new console back until late 2023 or early 2024.

That's the only time you mentioned 2023, and there is no-one telling you that 2023 is crazy, only people telling you that your rationale for that delay doesn't make any sense to them. Here is me specifically:

I'm not saying that a release date is guaranteed for this year, but I am saying that I think the data says the opposite of "console is probably still a while away"

And others

That's not to say it's definitely 2022 or anything. Ultimately we don't know with a large degree of certainty either way.

I have yet to see any company have their hardware delayed by this shortage.

Here in fact, people reply to you they believe 2023 is likely

You don't just have a sequel API with a actual GPU hardware spec inside of if for something that's "A while away"

That is for something that's within the next FY.

Next FY extending to March 2023, of course.

And that they believe you are referring to 2024, which you do not correct

I mean the attitude of "we're definitely not seeing this thing until 2024 and you'd be foolish to believe insiders again." I'm a little tired of that rhetoric.

This new model releasing in 2024 would be equivalent to development on the original Switch having been in full swing as of March 2012, or the 3DS as of February 2006. Game system hardware just doesn't/can't take that long to develop.

Edit: It would also mean dev kits were available for somewhere between 3 and 4 years, which is insane.

The reason people believe you mean 2024 is because you are not only vague about your timeline, but also because you keep saying that the current kind of leaks were "years in advance"

The reason why differentiating these types of leaks is important in this context is because broad leaks about hardware plans can happen years in advance,

And because you suggested late game rethinks that had to have happened internally at Nintendo after September 2021, when the Mochizuki article quoted devs saying they planned their Pro games for late 2022

So do I think these people are lying? No, I just think their information is out of date.

If it launches a year and a half later than expected, it's easy to see them simply using a newer process.

A year and a half later than late 2022 is of course, 2024, not 2023.

No one here is arguing with you that a 2022 release is inevitable, that I can find. Perhaps there is one or two people who said so, though my frankly annoying trawl through all of your posts couldn't find one, but they certainly aren't the predominant voices in this thread. Instead, it is the actual video game and chip devs arguing with you about whether a last minute change of plans due to "covid" and "chip shortages" makes any sense (most people seem to think no, and I agree with them), and that a radical rethink in the underlying chip design like changing process nodes is unlikely in the kind of time you're talking about. Which, of course, is one of the reasons that everyone assumed you were talking 2024.

If you believe 2023, then a rethink from the leaked design seems fundamentally impossible, so stop hawking it. If you believe that a redesign is ongoing, then stop trying to say that you believe in 2023. And whatever you say, don't claim people said things they didn't, and try to be clear about your meaning so that we're not arguing over things we actually agree on.

 

[Sol]

What if the Switch 2 was always planned by Nintendo to release in spring 2023, and with BotW 2, they just felt that with Pokemon Gen 9 already coming out for the holiday, that it would be much better to move it a few months back to strengthen the launch of the new hardware?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Please find anyone who told you it had to come in 2022 and couldn't slip to 2023.

The position of everyone in this thread who was expecting 2022 was that it could also slip to early 2023 if need be, and it has been that way for a very long time.

Well, not me, I’ve been team 23, late or early, all along , you can’t change me now! I just hope for early, but you never know.

@BobNintendofan i speak for myself, but I do not want you to stop posting in here, I know that it can be hectic and people eventually just choose not to post because they feel unwelcome, Gay Bowser even stopped because of that. However, I feel like rethinking the meta of how the discussion is had can change the perspective here, of the way the talk is handled, and in a way that does communicate one to another.

I know disagreements can happen, but understanding why they think that and whether you agree or disagree is fine. Opinions are of course still opinions in the end. Some have reasons to believe 2022, others have reasons to believe 2023, all have reasons to believe why 2024/25 doesn’t make sense or quite align.

 

[Deleted member 887]

I would really like the thread to consider the possibility that the Zelda delay is because Zelda is behind, a thing that has happened to a couple Zelda's before.

 

[Skittzo]

What if the Switch 2 was always planned by Nintendo to release in spring 2023, and with BotW 2, they just felt that with Pokemon Gen 9 already coming out for the holiday, that it would be much better to move it a few months back to strengthen the launch of the new hardware?

Spring of any year has always felt unlikely to me simply because of how it impacts their ability to announce/market it. I think they always wanted it to launch in a holiday season, there's a reason why literally everybody aims for that (even Nintendo with Switch and 3DS originally wanted to launch it earlier).

 

[ILikeFeet]

It can if it affects yields.

Case in point, the ps5 has terrible yields mainly because of it’s crazy high clock speeds. Less chips are usable, so price per chip goes up.

Which explains why AMD is selling chips as mining GPUs

 

[Hermii]

That’s the price of the wafer, not the price of the individual console.

And Nintendo would have to go some crazy high clocks for that to even happen, no one is expecting that. Like at all.

No one even mentioned this.

PS5 has a GPU at 2.23GHz, which is crazy high.

One impacts the other.

It may not have a huge impact, but it does have an impact. The better yields, the more drakes Nintendo can produce the better.

 

[Look over there]

What if the Switch 2 was always planned by Nintendo to release in spring 2023, and with BotW 2, they just felt that with Pokemon Gen 9 already coming out for the holiday, that it would be much better to move it a few months back to strengthen the launch of the new hardware?

I'd have trouble squaring that with Nate's sources (presumably devs?) being told to plan for a late 2022 release (which holds/held true as of... last summer, I think?).
But a one or two quarter delay has always been possible.

 

[Deleted member 887]

I'd have trouble squaring that with Nate's sources (presumably devs?) being told to plan for a late 2022 release (which holds/held true as of... last summer, I think?).
But a one or two quarter delay has always been plausible.

I've had a wild theory that the reason Zynga devs went on background with Bloomberg was because they were racing to hit a 2022 deadline and were starting to suspect that Nintendo might pull the rug out from them by letting the hardware slip. Zynga doesn't have a console background and having project schedules that they've got financials riding on (and possibly built around a tie in to a franchise which might be time limited) dictated by platform holders is likely new to them.

 

[davec00ke]

I've had a wild theory that the reason Zynga devs went on background with Bloomberg was because they were racing to hit a 2022 deadline and were starting to suspect that Nintendo might pull the rug out from them by letting the hardware slip. Zynga doesn't have a console background and having project schedules that they've got financials riding on (and possibly built around a tie in to a franchise which might be time limited) dictated by platform holders is likely new to them.

Or maybe Bloomberg just got it wrong like when they said Switch PRO would launch in 2019 and again in 2021

 

[Bosintang]

End of 2023, early 2024 remains my guess unless the machine is less powerful than rumored.

 

[Skittzo]

Or maybe Bloomberg just got it wrong like when they said Switch PRO would launch in 2019 and again in 2021

IIRC they never used the term "Switch pro" for either of those. In 2019 they said two new models would launch, which was correct. They also said one may have new features for enthusiasts which was not exactly correct.

 

[davec00ke]

IIRC they never used the term "Switch pro" for either of those. In 2019 they said two new models would launch, which was correct. They also said one may have new features for enthusiasts which was not exactly correct.

If i remeber correctly they said one would be more powerfull

 

[Ojoloco]

We need the nate postcast

 

[karmitt]

My take:

1. If new hardware is actually very close to releasing, the sequel to Breath of the Wild was never going to launch before it. I’m pretty firm on this one - it just doesn’t make sense to do otherwise given how long the games take to develop and the value of the originals release on 2017 Switch.
2. The original 2022 release was most certainly not a bait and switch ie. they fully intended on releasing the game this year.
3. Hardware would have therefore been targeting late 2022; Side: This lines up with ‘third party developers targeting late 2022’ we’ve heard from Bloomberg and Nate.
4. There are many other major titles releasing at the end of this year, both announced and unannounced, not undergoing any delays.
5. These end of year titles would have sensibly supported new hardware in some way. A hypothetical Metroid Prime remake (remaster) would benefit just as much from new hardware.

Are we really having people look at today’s update and say that it’s more likely that this is due to a hardware schedule shift than just being a very typical software one?

Zelda got delayed. That’s all. You could even argue that giving the new hardware more time on the market might benefit the game, as more people can experience it at its best.

 

[Alovon11]

My take:

1. If new hardware is actually very close to releasing, the sequel to Breath of the Wild was never going to launch before it. I’m pretty firm on this one - it just doesn’t make sense to do otherwise given how long the games take to develop and the value of the originals release on 2017 Switch.
2. The original 2022 release was most certainly not a bait and switch ie. they fully intended on releasing the game this year.
3. Hardware would have therefore been targeting late 2022; Side: This lines up with ‘third party developers targeting late 2022’ we’ve heard from Bloomberg and Nate.
4. There are many other major titles releasing at the end of this year, both announced and unannounced, not undergoing any delays.
5. These end of year titles would have sensibly supported new hardware in some way. A hypothetical Metroid Prime remake (remaster) would benefit just as much from new hardware.

Are we really having people look at today’s update and say that it’s more likely that this is due to a hardware schedule shift than just being a very typical software one?

Zelda got delayed. That’s all. You could even argue that giving the new hardware more time on the market might benefit the game, as more people can experience it at its best.

Yeah, this doesn't really influence the window still, it is still Fall 2022 to March 2023.

It's just the chances of Drake itself being March 2023 have increased and IMHO the more likely release until something to pair Drake with at launch that is at BOTW2's level is announced for Fall 2022 (Mario, Unless they really want to launch it with Pokemon Scarlet/Violet)

But Drake is still likely on its own hardware schedule and there always is the odds at this point they could push Drake into March as well as they did OG Switch, we are just far out enough from a Fall 2022 launch that they still have that flexibility, but it would be a cut-close development wise, but one Nintendo did with OG Switch already.

 

[Dakhil]

I gotta say there's a really weird mindset on this board that hardware plans can't ever be delayed. Obviously once things have gone into production, there's no way to back out, but assuming Nintendo planned for an early 2022 Switch 2 launch and saw massively increased demand in mid 2020 it's not unrealistic to believe they could have delayed the console and opted for a newer manufacturing process.

I don't know if Nintendo can easily delay new hardware from the launch window of holiday 2022 to early 2023 to a launch window after early 2023 (e.g. holiday 2023 to early 2024) without angering and inconveniencing third party developers, assuming that the rumours that Nintendo's most trusted third party developers received devkits in late 2020, with more third party developers receiving devkits at around E3 2021, are true.

And changing process nodes is a process that requires companies to make plans at a minimum of at least a year in advance, not a couple of months in advance. One example is that kopite7kimi mentioned that GH100 was using TSMC's N5 process node more than two years ago. (I know Nvidia said that GH100's fabricated using TSMC's 4N process node, which is customised for Nvidia. But to be fair to kopite7kimi, TSMC's N4 process node was advertised by TSMC as an improved version of TSMC's N5 process node. So kopite7kimi was at least partially correct.)

 

[karmitt]

Yeah, this doesn't really influence the window still, it is still Fall 2022 to March 2023.

It's just the chances of Drake itself being March 2023 have increased and IMHO the more likely release until something to pair Drake with at launch that is at BOTW2's level is announced for Fall 2022 (Mario, Unless they really want to launch it with Pokemon Scarlet/Violet)

But Drake is still likely on its own hardware schedule and there always is the odds at this point they could push Drake into March as well as they did OG Switch, we are just far out enough from a Fall 2022 launch that they still have that flexibility, but it would be a cut-close development wise, but one Nintendo did with OG Switch already.

I’m not discounting 2023 as a possibility, but it’s never sat right with me. Zelda's date being moved makes it easier to swallow, but I'd still see it as a hardware delay, and one at the expense of other H2 titles.

 

[antonz]

Nintendo is not going to wait for a significant decline in sales before they release their next device. They will release the Next Gen Switch and unlike previous consoles still sell the old one because its still popular enough to. They can stop releasing software for the old Switch and have the rest of its lifespan be based on late comer sales who have a whole library to play from. Then hype up the current owners with the latest and greatest.

 

[TurtleRock]

It's also just simply way easier to delay a game than it would to shift the entire launch of a brand new console to accommodate it being available at the same time as the big game.

 

[davec00ke]

Nintendo is not going to wait for a significant decline in sales before they release their next device. They will release the Next Gen Switch and unlike previous consoles still sell the old one because its still popular enough to. They can stop releasing software for the old Switch and have the rest of its lifespan be based on late comer sales who have a whole library to play from. Then hype up the current owners with the latest and greatest.

The moment the next Switch is announced the current Switch sales will collapse just like the PS4.

 

[ShadowFox08]

When they announce the successor will be interesting for sure. Not sure if I'm more excited for confirmed specs (when it gets confirmed), or when it gets formally revealed. I hope it's not January for the latter.

What do they have to lose with a 2022 reveal, be it summer or Q4? They don't have to announce the release date or price right away but can say Spring 2023.

Most people will not wait for switch 2 for whatever is releasing this fall (xenoblade, Pokemon, Mario game) especially if switch 2 ends up being backwards compatible. it will be interesting if we get physical ports of Pokemon and xenoblade for switch 2 though and or if using regular switch versions and downloading a performance patch on switch 2 to enable better performance and resolution (lol $10 upgrade). Which would be easier .

if Botw 2 ends up being a launch game, then it's likely there will be two versions.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

The moment the next Switch is announced the current Switch sales will collapse just like the PS4.

The PS4 sales collapsed because Sony announced that the successor was around the corner a year and a half before the release and cut the production of one of the models and even discontinued some models in other regions to push people to the ps5 as soon as possible.

 

[karmitt]

The PS4 sales collapsed because Sony announced that the successor was around the corner a year and a half before the release and cut the production of one of the models and even discontinued some models in other regions to push people to the ps5 as soon as possible.

Sony also strongly implied exclusivity for their new releases. They wanted the world to believe they needed to own a PS5. They even talked about having the fastest transition of customers to a new gen ever.

There's no chance Nintendo is taking the same approach. The current Switch (or at least the OLED) is going to be fully supported for years to come, and just sit as a lower price point model.

 

[menx64]

The PS4 sales collapsed because Sony announced that the successor was around the corner a year and a half before the release and cut the production of one of the models and even discontinued some models in other regions to push people to the ps5 as soon as possible.

Yeap, they did all they could to get people jump to PS5 as quickly as possible. If backwards compatible the switch will continue to sell for a few more years.

 

[ILikeFeet]

When they announce the successor will be interesting for sure. Not sure if I'm more excited for confirmed specs (when it gets confirmed), or when it gets formally revealed. I hope it's not January for the latter.

What do they have to lose with a 2022 reveal, be it summer or Q4? They don't have to announce the release date or price right away but can say Spring 2023.

Most people will not wait for switch 2 for whatever is releasing this fall (xenoblade, Pokemon, Mario game) especially if switch 2 ends up being backwards compatible. it will be interesting if we get physical ports of Pokemon and xenoblade for switch 2 though and or if using regular switch versions and downloading a performance patch on switch 2 to enable better performance and resolution (lol $10 upgrade). Which would be easier .

if Botw 2 ends up being a launch game, then it's likely there will be two versions.

announce it in early december, stress that all your switch games will carry over and some will be patched so there's no need to rush. that also gives some folks time for returns

 

[SiG]

I guess what Nintendo claimed in investor meets is now technically right:

No new hardware launching this year.

I do hope this means Nvidia/Nintendo can polish up their dev kits and support for the new successor/platform, if not grab a few more exclusive deals to get released on it to keep momentum moving forward.

Also part of me really wishes their "garage studio" is behind making another original IP. I know people are just crving for Nintendo to just dip into their back catalogue (Eternal Darkness please), but I think it's important for them to keep making new titles as a way to diversify themselves from simply just being "the Mario and Zelda studio". Splatoon is already a part of that and kind of wish they keep churning out successful original titles.

 

[Spork4000]

If i remeber correctly they said one would be more powerfull

In their defense, the red box switch has the potential to be more powerful, Nintendo took the battery life increase over power increase. It's not hard to imagine that Nintendo was testing both and ended up just going with more battery life.

 

[Skittzo]

I guess what Nintendo claimed in investor meets is now technically right:

No new hardware launching this year.

Huh? They never said that this year.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Yeap, they did all they could to get people jump to PS5 as quickly as possible. If backwards compatible the switch will continue to sell for a few more years.

I see them keeping the switch base relevant for emerging markets as an easier to access unit in those regions. Drake will appeal to the enthusiasts first like the early adopters of the switch, PS5 and XBox Series. Except, with continued support and not quite the early planned obsolescence.

Huh? They never said that this year.

You misunderstood, Sig is saying that in an investor meeting, Nintendo can claim no new hardware this year but not necessarily no new hardware this fiscal year. SiG is basically saying an early 2023 is possible.

If an investor asked about new hardware that is.

I guess what Nintendo claimed in investor meets is now technically right:

No new hardware launching this year.

I do hope this means Nvidia/Nintendo can polish up their dev kits and support for the new successor/platform, if not grab a few more exclusive deals to get released on it to keep momentum moving forward.

Also part of me really wishes their "garage studio" is behind making another original IP. I know people are just crving for Nintendo to just dip into their back catalogue (Eternal Darkness please), but I think it's important for them to keep making new titles as a way to diversify themselves from simply just being "the Mario and Zelda studio". Splatoon is already a part of that and kind of wish they keep churning out successful original titles.

i think the devkits, being how they have been out for a bit, are still being polished and will also be polished for after release.

Nintendo would handle the software stack with nVidia pre and post release via hardware updates.

 

[Skittzo]

You misunderstood, Sig is saying that in an investor meeting, Nintendo can claim no new hardware this year but not necessarily no new hardware this fiscal year. SiG is basically saying an early 2023 is possible.

If an investor asked about new hardware that is.

Ah I see, that's a good point then.

 

[Deleted member 1324]

They better show the potential new 3D Mario and BotW 2 gameplay at their e3 event running on the new console when they reveal them

If the console comes in March ‘23 then they’ll reveal it in the January so I won’t get my wish!

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

I guess what Nintendo claimed in investor meets is now technically right:

No new hardware launching this year.

I do hope this means Nvidia/Nintendo can polish up their dev kits and support for the new successor/platform, if not grab a few more exclusive deals to get released on it to keep momentum moving forward.

Also part of me really wishes their "garage studio" is behind making another original IP. I know people are just crving for Nintendo to just dip into their back catalogue (Eternal Darkness please), but I think it's important for them to keep making new titles as a way to diversify themselves from simply just being "the Mario and Zelda studio". Splatoon is already a part of that and kind of wish they keep churning out successful original titles.

I mean Nintendo already has churned out quite a few successful original titles this gen alone. So I don’t think any should be concerned there unless they are looking for very specific things from the “garage studio”.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

@Look over there @Thraktor

This is for ORIN AGX, at 2.2GHz. Unsure if this would interest you but for 12 cores it gives this level of performance. And also the single threaded performance.

And of course the reminder that it is 3 separate clusters and not a single cluster so it has three separate caches.

 

[Kenka]

@Look over there @Thraktor

This is for ORIN AGX, at 2.2GHz. Unsure if this would interest you but for 12 cores it gives this level of performance. And also the single threaded performance.

And of course the reminder that it is 3 separate clusters and not a single cluster so it has three separate caches.

Do you have the source of this bench? It says '12 threads' so it could be 6 cores too?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Do you have the source of this bench? It says '12 threads' so it could be 6 cores too?

It’s ARM CPUs so 12 threads would be 12 cores and ORIN AGX has 12 CPU cores active, but it’s on linux, I think that’s why it displays it as “1 core, 12 threads” or just geekbench acting funky. Anyway, here’s the source:

 

[Look over there]

@Look over there @Thraktor

This is for ORIN AGX, at 2.2GHz. Unsure if this would interest you but for 12 cores it gives this level of performance. And also the single threaded performance.

And of course the reminder that it is 3 separate clusters and not a single cluster so it has three separate caches.

The single core, once normalized to per ghz, is niiice. It's noticeably ahead of even the best (normalized) single core scores for the 4700S.
The (raw, not normalized) multi core score is also closer than I'd have suspected against the 4700S.

Do you have the source of this bench? It says '12 threads' so it could be 6 cores too?

The ARM Cortex A- series don't do Simultaneous Multi-Threading/HyperThreading, so just 1 thread per core. There's a slight silicon and power cost needed to handle multithreading in a core, so apparently ARM decided to not go in that direction years ago and focus more maximizing single thread utilization. And honestly, for their particular specialty of super low power and tiny, I agree.

 

[ShadowFox08]

The single core, once normalized to per ghz, is niiice. It's noticeably ahead of even the best (normalized) single core scores for the 4700S.
The (raw, not normalized) multi core score is also closer than I'd have suspected against the 4700S.

The ARM Cortex A- series don't do Simultaneous Multi-Threading/HyperThreading, so just 1 thread per core. There's a slight silicon and power cost needed to handle multithreading in a core, so apparently ARM decided to not go in that direction years ago and focus more maximizing single thread utilization. And honestly, for their particular specialty of super low power and tiny, I agree.

So what is Sony/MS's current gen console CPU benched at exactly?

 

[Look over there]

The 4700S multi core score strikes me as usually in the 8000's, with a decent amount of low 9000's. Peak of 9430 so far.
Its single core is typically 900's/1000's, with a peak of 1085.
Base frequency's 3.6 ghz.

 

[Alovon11]

The 4700S multi core score strikes me as usually in the 8000's, with a decent amount of low 9000's. Peak of 9430 so far.
Its single core is typically 900's/1000's, with a peak of 1085.
Base frequency's 3.6 ghz.

Well those scores are likely read with the boost clock of >4Ghz so dial it back a bit for PS5 estimates

 

[Alovon11]

I have done it
I HAVE FOUND A WAY TO CONVERT TFLOPS ACROSS uARCHS

---GPU FLOP Comparison Method--- Ampere: 2(SM Count * (128 * Clock speed)) Turing/Vega/GCN 2(SM/CU Count * (64 * Clock Speed)) RDNA1/IC-Less RDNA2 converted to GCN TFLOPs (2(CU Count * (64 * Clock Speed)))+25% Calculate the FP32/Cycle of a GPU with the equation then look at the TFLOP value of that GPU as rated by the manufacturer, the "Efficiency" of the TFLOPs will be exposed by the difference in the FP32/Cycle result Factor in % Additions to extrapolate back to a weaker/older uArch if the % difference is properly known (EX: RDNA1/IC-Less RDNA2 is 25% better in IPC than GCN, so it would be the GCN Equation + 25%)

And with this and some extrapolation Z0m3le and I have more or less determined Desktop Ampere to be equivalent to Polaris and therefore not so far off from the rest of GCN in regards to FLOP Efficiency

And that is not considering all the features that even Ampere has over GCN like Tile-Based Rasterization, Mixed Precision FP, The Tensor and RT cores, Primitive and Mesh Shaders, Variable Rate Shading (which can boost effective GPU perf up to 20% in some reports)

Which, considering Drake is running pretty much "Ampere+" with the extra L2 Cache, and RDNA2 reporting massive IPC uplifts with infinity Cache over the 25% from GCN to RDNA1, can likely give us determination on what clocks Drake needs to hit to match the PS4 Pro or even the Series S assuming different IPC uplifts over Ampere via us being able to covert IC-Less RDNA2 to GCN and Ampere and GCN being similar FLOP-to-FLOP

(Note, this is actually lowballing Ampere as modern games that take advantage of Ampere's features will outperform GCN, but this gives us a more level comparison between Ampere, GCN (PS4 Pro/One X), and IC-less RDNA2 (Series S). So technically these numbers are a lowball for modern effectiveness)


So for example

-PS4 Pro (GCN): 2(36*(64*0.911) = 4197.888 FP32/Cycle rated at 4.2 GCN TFLOPs -Series S (IC-Less RDNA2): (2(20(64*1.565)) = 4006.4 FP32/Cycle rated at 4 RDNA"2" TFLOPs + 25% = 5008 FP32/Cycle or 5 GCN TFLOPS ---Drake based on Default Ampere for Reference--- -Drake (Pure Ampere, OG Switch Docked Clocks): (2(12(128*0.768)) = 2359.296 FP32/Cycle or 2.35 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (Pure Ampere, 1Ghz): (2(12(128*1)) = 3072 FP32/Cycle or 3 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (Pure Ampere, 1.5Ghz): (2(12(128*1.5)) = 4608 FP32/Cycle or 4.3 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (Pure Ampere, 1.63Ghz aka Matching Series S): (2(12(128*1.63)) = 5007.36 FP32/Cycle or 5 Ampere TFLOps. ---------------------------------------------------------- Now, assuming even just a marginal 10% increase in IPC over Ampere those values effectively become -Drake (768Mhz): 2.6 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (1Ghz): 3.3 Ampere TFLOps -Drake (1.5Ghz): 5 Ampere TFLOps -Drake (1.63Ghz): 5.5 Ampere TFLOps

Even a 10% increase over Ampere due to that Cache is enough to make 1.5Ghz Drake match the Series S's GCN Equivalent!

Now, Assuming Drake gets the 25% boost AMD did just from going GCN to RDNA1

--Drake: 25% better than Ampere calculation-- -Drake (768Mhz): 2.95 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (1Ghz): 3.8 Ampere TFLOps -Drake (1.5Ghz): 5.7 Ampere TFLOps -Drake (1.63Ghz): 6.2 Ampere TFLOps

You'd only need to hit 1.1Ghz to match the PS4 Pro if they pull out a 25% IPC increase through the cache (Which, considering reports of the 4070 with the exact same core count or less than the 3090 and the only major difference in raster perf seemingly being the Cache reporting an up to 30% increase over the 3090, that may very well be the case)

And only 1.3Ghz to match the Series S!

 

[Blomqvist]

If this SOC is on 5NM it will outperform Series S after DLSS, that is crazy! With this performance VR form factor is possible.

 

[Zedark]

Do you have the source of this bench? It says '12 threads' so it could be 6 cores too?

A 6-core CPU can't reach the 9.4x improvement, that would be unheard of. For example, a 6-core Ryzen 5 product reaches a 4.66x, which is much more sensible. The part you found is most likely a 12-core part.

Nice find btw, that is quite an impressive performance I feel, and puts the single-core performance roughly in the ballpark of where I had expected it, which is likely somewhat north of half the performance of the PS5/XSS after adjusting for the clocks that they use.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I would really like the thread to consider the possibility that the Zelda delay is because Zelda is behind, a thing that has happened to a couple Zelda's before.

Next step would be thinking why it is behind at this point ? And optimization for a new plattform launching around that time might be among the reasons that would come up.

BotW 2 could be the prime example of showing off how cross-gen games can and will be executed across the Switch family of systems. BotW was the essential launch game for the OG Switch and educated people in terms of the capabilities of the system - 4K/60 BotW 2 for the next Switch could do the same while showcasing a massive jump for a baseline Switch title.

PS. You are obv. right but people connecting hardware launches and mainline Zelda releases shouldnt come off as an surprise, considering the importance of the series among hardcore Nintendo fans that would show up on Day 1 for a potential +400 USD hardware revision/upgrade.

 

[Pagan]

So how many switches per month can foxconn produce? If they delayed botw2 for 3 to 4 more month later, how many more switch pro/4k/2 will they have at launch if it launches in march.

 

[Kenka]

So how many switches per month can foxconn produce? If they delayed botw2 for 3 to 4 more month later, how many more switch pro/4k/2 will they have at launch if it launches in march.

I am mostly talking out of my ass but since Nintendo plan to sell 23 million consoles this fiscal year, we can assume they want the same output from their factory. So very crudely, they want to push 2 million devices per month or stockpile 6-8 million consoles for launch, if we follow your argument.

That is, assuming the BotW 2 delay is indeed an indication of the time window at which they want to launch the succ and assuming the delay was done to increase the stocks available at launch. Those are two big ifs.

A 6-core CPU can't reach the 9.4x improvement, that would be unheard of. For example, a 6-core Ryzen 5 product reaches a 4.66x, which is much more sensible. The part you found is most likely a 12-core part.

Nice find btw, that is quite an impressive performance I feel, and puts the single-core performance roughly in the ballpark of where I had expected it, which is likely somewhat north of half the performance of the PS5/XSS after adjusting for the clocks that they use.

On this topic, does anyone have the results of the same benchmark for the A57?

 

[Pagan]

There was some speculation that a 3D Mario will launch in cross-promotion with the Mario movie in December. If Drake is this year, that could be a launch title.

After listening to z0mbl3's podcast, what I understand is there's not a super huge window to delay release of hardware if they reserved production lines. So BotW2's delay doesn't tell me much. If this comes in 2022 then we'll still have a few months to enjoy a 4K BotW1 patch.

He has a podcast? Could you share the link?