StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Mr Swine]

So, given that it is based on what should be the same tech as the upcoming Switch, we have someone with an Orin Dev Kit:


However, at 15W power, it acts 4 core CPU machine running at max 1.1 GHz and the GPU is running at max 420 MHz.

Does it deactivate all the automotive parts to achieve 15w? If not then I’m not too worried.

I expect it to run at the same frequencies as the original Switch

 

[Alovon11]

Does it deactivate all the automotive parts to achieve 15w? If not then I’m not too worried.

I expect it to run at the same frequencies as the original Switch

You know that to hit OG switch frequencies that needs it to hit 1Ghz all core on the CPU and 768MHz on all the GPU cores right?

That is far more power than 15W Orin is pushing and even moreso if it already deactivated the Automotive parts at 15W

So yeah 8nm Drake is looking unlikely based on that which means 5nm Drake is more likely because why would they get a 12SM GPU if it can't run at B/C Clocks with the CPU they pick.

 

[Simba1]

I’ve been out of the loop. Last time I read about this, it was still called Switch Dane.

If it’s potentially using 5nm process, how much more powerful are people expecting it to be in relation to the previous expectations of Samsung’s 8nm? Also, doesn’t Switch V2/Lite/OLED have 4 SMs? Drake has 12??? That’s crazy! Was anyone expecting this before the Nvidia stuff leaked?

Thank you all for any answer. The thread moved very fast since Dane days and I wasn’t able to follow any of it

Personally I am glad that "Dane" is dead now, long live Drake!

 

[Hosermess]

I just posted the evidence. In Japan they give breakdowns of sales by switch model and the OLED is making up about half the sales. The OLED is much more likely to be a rebuy than the other two units are, so it's safe to say rebuys are up a lot. Of course we cant say how high until Nintendo tells us (if they tell us), but it's up substantially nonetheless. And it's just common sense. There's only so many people willing to buy a video game console, particularly for $300 and without substantial third party support. They could have the console on the market for 50 years and they're never making 200 million sales.

Posting sales breakdowns for a single country and then making up numbers that you feel are "common sense" are not evidence of much.

"The OLED is much more likely to be a rebuy than the other two units are" - this is a safe assumption, but the rest of it...who knows (besides Nintendo)

 

[Kevin]

Has Nate or any other inside made any recent comments on the Zelda delay or Switch Pro timeline? What is their current release timeline for Switch Pro?

 

[Skittzo]

So, given that it is based on what should be the same tech as the upcoming Switch, we have someone with an Orin Dev Kit:


However, at 15W power, it acts 4 core CPU machine running at max 1.1 GHz and the GPU is running at max 420 MHz.

Any indication of the die size in that video?

 

[Brofield]

Has Nate or any other inside made any recent comments on the Zelda delay or Switch Pro timeline? What is their current release timeline for Switch Pro?

Nothing has been spoken of yet. Nate's still in the midst of doing follow up research before recording his podcast (no estimated release yet iirc), but like before he's said, the devs still have their new kits in hand, making games, and some will be exclusive to the new console.

I think we're still gonna need to wait a week or so for any information from GDC to make it's way out onto the internet for more info on the hardware

 

[Crusters]

Maybe.

I think it depends.

I think if things don’t work out, they’ll try to stretch the generation even longer and longer until it works out where they feel it’s ok enough for them to move on.

But I think we may be approaching the realm of diminishing returns. For the high end anyway.

TDP in the next few years will be wild. PS3 had a high one, but nothing has match that since.

We've been in diminishing returns a long, long time. It's mostly only detail oriented enthusiasts that show the big reactions anymore.

Remember, improved graphics isn't the return, it's part of the cost. The return is people's reactions.

 

[davec00ke]

Personally I am glad that "Dane" is dead now, long live Drake!

I'm still waiting for Nintendo to release the NX

 

[ShadowFox08]

I have done it
I HAVE FOUND A WAY TO CONVERT TFLOPS ACROSS uARCHS

---GPU FLOP Comparison Method--- Ampere: 2(SM Count * (128 * Clock speed)) Turing/Vega/GCN 2(SM/CU Count * (64 * Clock Speed)) RDNA1/IC-Less RDNA2 converted to GCN TFLOPs (2(CU Count * (64 * Clock Speed)))+25% Calculate the FP32/Cycle of a GPU with the equation then look at the TFLOP value of that GPU as rated by the manufacturer, the "Efficiency" of the TFLOPs will be exposed by the difference in the FP32/Cycle result Factor in % Additions to extrapolate back to a weaker/older uArch if the % difference is properly known (EX: RDNA1/IC-Less RDNA2 is 25% better in IPC than GCN, so it would be the GCN Equation + 25%)

And with this and some extrapolation Z0m3le and I have more or less determined Desktop Ampere to be equivalent to Polaris and therefore not so far off from the rest of GCN in regards to FLOP Efficiency

And that is not considering all the features that even Ampere has over GCN like Tile-Based Rasterization, Mixed Precision FP, The Tensor and RT cores, Primitive and Mesh Shaders, Variable Rate Shading (which can boost effective GPU perf up to 20% in some reports)

Which, considering Drake is running pretty much "Ampere+" with the extra L2 Cache, and RDNA2 reporting massive IPC uplifts with infinity Cache over the 25% from GCN to RDNA1, can likely give us determination on what clocks Drake needs to hit to match the PS4 Pro or even the Series S assuming different IPC uplifts over Ampere via us being able to covert IC-Less RDNA2 to GCN and Ampere and GCN being similar FLOP-to-FLOP

(Note, this is actually lowballing Ampere as modern games that take advantage of Ampere's features will outperform GCN, but this gives us a more level comparison between Ampere, GCN (PS4 Pro/One X), and IC-less RDNA2 (Series S). So technically these numbers are a lowball for modern effectiveness)


So for example

-PS4 Pro (GCN): 2(36*(64*0.911) = 4197.888 FP32/Cycle rated at 4.2 GCN TFLOPs -Series S (IC-Less RDNA2): (2(20(64*1.565)) = 4006.4 FP32/Cycle rated at 4 RDNA"2" TFLOPs + 25% = 5008 FP32/Cycle or 5 GCN TFLOPS ---Drake based on Default Ampere for Reference--- -Drake (Pure Ampere, OG Switch Docked Clocks): (2(12(128*0.768)) = 2359.296 FP32/Cycle or 2.35 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (Pure Ampere, 1Ghz): (2(12(128*1)) = 3072 FP32/Cycle or 3 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (Pure Ampere, 1.5Ghz): (2(12(128*1.5)) = 4608 FP32/Cycle or 4.3 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (Pure Ampere, 1.63Ghz aka Matching Series S): (2(12(128*1.63)) = 5007.36 FP32/Cycle or 5 Ampere TFLOps. ---------------------------------------------------------- Now, assuming even just a marginal 10% increase in IPC over Ampere those values effectively become -Drake (768Mhz): 2.6 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (1Ghz): 3.3 Ampere TFLOps -Drake (1.5Ghz): 5 Ampere TFLOps -Drake (1.63Ghz): 5.5 Ampere TFLOps

Even a 10% increase over Ampere due to that Cache is enough to make 1.5Ghz Drake match the Series S's GCN Equivalent!

Now, Assuming Drake gets the 25% boost AMD did just from going GCN to RDNA1

--Drake: 25% better than Ampere calculation-- -Drake (768Mhz): 2.95 Ampere TFLOPs -Drake (1Ghz): 3.8 Ampere TFLOps -Drake (1.5Ghz): 5.7 Ampere TFLOps -Drake (1.63Ghz): 6.2 Ampere TFLOps

You'd only need to hit 1.1Ghz to match the PS4 Pro if they pull out a 25% IPC increase through the cache (Which, considering reports of the 4070 with the exact same core count or less than the 3090 and the only major difference in raster perf seemingly being the Cache reporting an up to 30% increase over the 3090, that may very well be the case)

And only 1.3Ghz to match the Series S!

Alright, but how many ducked taped switches will Drake be in GPU performance... taking Maxwell architecture in consideration?

Also, I thought current released ampere and desktop and current mobile laptop can't do mixed precision, or at least not as effectively as Turing and Maxwell/pascal?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Alright, but how many ducked taped switches will Drake be in GPU performance... taking Maxwell architecture in consideration?

Also, I thought current released ampere and desktop and current mobile laptop can't do mixed precision, or at least not as effectively as Turing and Maxwell/pascal?

I feel like I’ve said this to you before already

It does it differently, they all do mixed precision.

I'm still waiting for Nintendo to release the NX

SuperMetalDave will be redeemed when the NX launches .

We've been in diminishing returns a long, long time. It's mostly only detail oriented enthusiasts that show the big reactions anymore.

Remember, improved graphics isn't the return, it's part of the cost. The return is people's reactions.

Fair enough, I’ve been admittedly entering the diminished zone over the years. Maybe this next console era will be the last that I notice? But things already are looking greater and greater as time goes, but less and less impressive.

Personally I am glad that "Dane" is dead now, long live Drake!

He’ll go sing to you as a personal concert

 

[ShadowFox08]

I don't think people specifically want a revision, it's just all that's on the market. If there were a new console instead, I'm confident they would prefer that.
As for the comparison to PS5/XBX I don't think it's as clear cut as you believe it is.

The PS5 is only around 4-5x stronger than the PS4. Making PS5 games run on PS4 isn't a crazy ask. The console we are seeing looks more around 15x stronger than the Switch. Games would have to either be rebuilt from scratch, or built for the switch and then bumped up for the new console which would be an immense disappointment and a baffling waste of hardware power when they could have easily gone with a cheaper more budget option and still done 4k switch ports.

Also, I don't think it's fair to assume this extensive crossgen period was necessarily even the original plan of Sony and Microsoft. It is being driven in large part by the chip shortages. We have no idea how much support would have been cross gen normally.

I don't think you are accounting for PS5's more recent architecture VS 2011 GCN AMD GPU.. It's a bit more than 5x. And with CPU I think it was 7-8x I wanna say?

So, given that it is based on what should be the same tech as the upcoming Switch, we have someone with an Orin Dev Kit:


However, at 15W power, it acts 4 core CPU machine running at max 1.1 GHz and the GPU is running at max 420 MHz.

I have so many questions. I can't watch the video ATM.

1. Does this model have a 25 watt mode enavled also? I forgot.
2.it confirmed Orion is using an 8nm node? I'm guessing it is.
3. Is this the big Orion that has all the SMS 2048 cuda cores with 64GB space or 1792 cuda cores with 32 GB space? I believe the former has 16 SMs as well.
5.3 and 3.37 TFLOPs are the max clocks for these, I believe.

 

[ShadowFox08]

I feel like I’ve said this to you before already

It does it differently, they all do mixed precision.


SuperMetalDave will be redeemed when the NX launches .


Fair enough, I’ve been admittedly entering the diminished zone over the years. Maybe this next console era will be the last that I notice? But things already are looking greater and greater as time goes, but less and less impressive.

He’ll go sing to you as a personal concert

but it's not as performant because it doesn't have as many fp16, right? Is that the reason why Turing is more efficient per flop vs ampere, despite being older? 2x as many fp16. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It's not being released alongside BOTW2, bc when in the hell would they announce it???
They wouldn't want it to announce before the holiday season because that would mean a terrible holiday season

The easy answer is... announce it after the holiday season. We barely saw any Switch footage before January 2017. GBASP was announced January 2003.

But there have also been plenty of successful systems that managed to survive one last holiday season with people fully aware something new was coming in spring. PS1, GB, DS. So uhh, most of the 100+ million club, really.

There is no evidence that there is saturation.

Where saturation ends is harder to say, but shipments do seem to be on a downward trend for most of the last year, unless that's entirely production limits.

We've been in diminishing returns a long, long time.

People joke about things like Skyrim and GTAV being rereleased over the last decade, but really they're just some of the most obvious signs that it's no longer a given that new games on new hardware will make previous major games seem obviously outdated.

 

[Mr Swine]

You know that to hit OG switch frequencies that needs it to hit 1Ghz all core on the CPU and 768MHz on all the GPU cores right?

That is far more power than 15W Orin is pushing and even moreso if it already deactivated the Automotive parts at 15W

So yeah 8nm Drake is looking unlikely based on that which means 5nm Drake is more likely because why would they get a 12SM GPU if it can't run at B/C Clocks with the CPU they pick.

Maybe Nintendo is deciding to run the hardware at very low clock speed so that it sits between One S and PS4 in docked mode while way below in undocked mode? Maybe only using 2SM for BC?

Either that or Nintendo just splurged money on making a complete custom SoC for 5nm instead of a cut down Orin at 8nm

 

[EddyZacianLand]

The easy answer is... announce it after the holiday season. We barely saw any Switch footage before January 2017. GBASP was announced January 2003.

But there have also been plenty of successful systems that managed to survive one last holiday season with people fully aware something new was coming in spring. PS1, GB, DS. So uhh, most of the 100+ million club, really.

Really?? I would just assume people would just wait and get the new one.
Wouldn't 2 months be too short of a notice for like pre orders??

 

[TurtleRock]

Really?? I would just assume people would just wait and get the new one.
Wouldn't 2 months be too short of a notice for like pre orders??

You couldn’t preorder switch until after the January presentation and it was fine? I managed to get my order in without too much issue and the launch went pretty well.

I think the preorder period lasted about 5-6 weeks.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Something like January->March would definitely be unprecedented for as big a step as this Drake hardware, but precedent's gotta start somewhere. Previous games and hardware revisions have happened in less time, though, so I'm not sure there'd be any extra problems with pre-ordering that haven't happened before.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

but it's not as performant because it doesn't have as many fp16, right? Is that the reason why Turing is more efficient per flop vs ampere, despite being older? 2x as many fp16. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Ampere just does the FP16 differently, and has a whole lot more FP16 calculations vs Turing.

FP16 is offloaded to the Tensor Cores that can do FP16.

Ampere is just not as efficient with bandwidth, which NV resolved it seems with more cache on ADA which helps it tremendously.

 

[Apopheniac]

The people who have gone over five years without buying a Switch aren't going to be swayed from buying it coming up on year six by the announcement of a new system that costs significantly more. Nintendo could announce new hardware this year and their Switch sales this holiday would be marginally impacted.

 

[BobNintendofan]

If Nintendo is going to release this later this year or early next year they will announce it soon.

Some comparisons for you:
Switch (NX) announced March 2015, released March 2017 (2 years)
Wii U announced April 2011, released November 2012 (year and a half)
3DS announced March 2010, released March 2011 (1 year)
Wii (revolution) announced June 2004 released November 2006 (2 years)
DS announced January 2004, released November 2004 (10 months)
GC announced August 2000, released November 2001 (13 months)

So as you can see the average time from announcement to release is about a year and a half, and it hasn't been less than 1 year in nearly 20 years. These things can vary, it's not like it's locked in or anything, but I see no reason to think this will be very different. If it's coming this holiday season or early next year I would expect to hear something about it in the next month. Not a formal announcement, just Nintendo saying somewhere "we're working on another console" and maybe give a code name (drake in this case)

Also, I hope this puts into context how strange it would be to announce this next January and release it next March.

 

[chocolate_supra]

If Nintendo is going to release this later this year or early next year they will announce it soon.

Some comparisons for you:
Switch (NX) announced March 2015, released March 2017 (2 years)
Wii U announced April 2011, released November 2012 (year and a half)
3DS announced March 2010, released March 2011 (1 year)
Wii (revolution) announced June 2004 released November 2006 (2 years)
DS announced January 2004, released November 2004 (10 months)
GC announced August 2000, released November 2001 (13 months)

So as you can see the average time from announcement to release is about a year and a half, and it hasn't been less than 1 year in nearly 20 years. These things can vary, it's not like it's locked in or anything, but I see no reason to think this will be very different. If it's coming this holiday season or early next year I would expect to hear something about it in the next month. Not a formal announcement, just Nintendo saying somewhere "we're working on another console" and maybe give a code name (drake in this case)

Also, I hope this puts into context how strange it would be to announce this next January and release it next March.

But every example you gave is a completely new console generation for Nintendo. If you include mid-gen hardware revisions, the announcement-to-release average goes down to a few months. January announcement for a March release would not be out of character for Nintendo at all.

 

[BobNintendofan]

But every example you gave is a completely new console generation for Nintendo. If you include mid-gen hardware revisions, the announcement-to-release average goes down to a few months. January announcement for a March release would not be out of character for Nintendo at all.

Yeah all of those 15x stronger mid gen power upgrades with massive new features like DLSS and raytracing.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Yeah all of those 15x stronger mid gen power upgrades with massive new features like DLSS and raytracing.

Love my 15x stronger Wii to the GCN and my 15x stronger than the Wii U system that is the switch

 

[chocolate_supra]

Yeah all of those 15x stronger mid gen power upgrades with massive new features like DLSS and raytracing.

I'm just saying it would not be the first time Nintendo released new hardware with only a few months of an announcement. And if power is the differentiating factor, this wouldn't even be the first time Nintendo released a significantly more powerful hardware revision with a few months announcement time.
Also I'm not super well-read on the numbers of this stuff but wouldn't 15x more powerful put Drake at like 10-15 TFLOPS? Isn't that, like, more than a PS5? Did I miss something.

 

[BobNintendofan]

I've tried to be nice about it but frankly I think the mere idea this is a revision is so absurd it's shocking that people could believe it.
In what world is a 15x stronger console a revision?
Revisions have always been around 2-3x stronger.
Console generations are normally around 6-7x stronger.
This thing is 15x stronger. They're effectively skipping a generation, due to moving to a car processor instead of a tablet processor (which is designed to take more power). And people believe this is a revision. Why? If they just wanted a newer 4k model of the switch, take the X1 shrink it and add DLSS.

 

[Pavolink]

Wait, 15x jump from the Switch?
What? Is that real?

 

[Skittzo]

I've tried to be nice about it but frankly I think the mere idea this is a revision is so absurd it's shocking that people could believe it.
In what world is a 15x stronger console a revision?
Revisions have always been around 2-3x stronger.
Console generations are normally around 6-7x stronger.
This thing is 15x stronger. They're effectively skipping a generation, due to moving to a car processor instead of a tablet processor (which is designed to take more power). And people believe this is a revision. Why? If they just wanted a newer 4k model of the switch, take the X1 shrink it and add DLSS.

New 3DS was 6x more powerful, GBC was similar. Not sure about DSi.

Wait, 15x jump from the Switch?
What? Is that real?

Nah, not really. It's a very very upper end estimate assuming perfect optimisation and DLSS usage and all that, and even then it seems a bit high to me.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

Wait, 15x jump from the Switch?
What? Is that real?

Maybe. We really don’t know, it’s all circumstantial evidence and speculation.

 

[TurtleRock]

I've tried to be nice about it but frankly I think the mere idea this is a revision is so absurd it's shocking that people could believe it.
In what world is a 15x stronger console a revision?
Revisions have always been around 2-3x stronger.
Console generations are normally around 6-7x stronger.
This thing is 15x stronger. They're effectively skipping a generation, due to moving to a car processor instead of a tablet processor (which is designed to take more power). And people believe this is a revision. Why? If they just wanted a newer 4k model of the switch, take the X1 shrink it and add DLSS.

I think you’re putting power differences on a pedestal. It all comes down to marketing. I don’t think Nintendo cares about the raw spec difference between their consoles as much as you do.

And it’s not unprecedented for a company to have a decent boost in power for new hardware and simply market it as an iterative upgrade. This quite literally happens all the time in the mobile phone space. Apple routinely reveals phones and launches them within months. They’ve emphasized better specs and have even advertised exclusive games for new phones.

It’s not out of the question for a video game company to follow the same path. In fact, the industry started trending in this direction with the mid gen refreshes last gen.

On that note you could argue that the leap from base Xbox One to Xbox One X was a generational leap and Microsoft still treated it like an iterative upgrade.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

This is the same Nintendo that switched the idea that power is what determines a new generation and they did it several generation ago, it’s about how you, the player, interact with the software they decided to offer you regardless of the power of the system.

Wii wasn’t a next gen console if we use power as a metric, Wii was a next gen console because of everything else from the input, to the game philosophy, to the OS, to the ocean strategy and overall makeup of the hardware being different and how you interacted with said hardware.

Wii for all intents and purposes was just a GameCube Pro by specification metrics.

It’s not really as black and white as it was before.

 

[9-Volt]

I've tried to be nice about it but frankly I think the mere idea this is a revision is so absurd it's shocking that people could believe it.
In what world is a 15x stronger console a revision?
Revisions have always been around 2-3x stronger.
Console generations are normally around 6-7x stronger.
This thing is 15x stronger. They're effectively skipping a generation, due to moving to a car processor instead of a tablet processor (which is designed to take more power). And people believe this is a revision. Why? If they just wanted a newer 4k model of the switch, take the X1 shrink it and add DLSS.

First of all, for Nintendo, generations are defined by gimmicks not raw power. Successor to Switch will feature drastically different features than Switch, while retaining some.

Second, Nintendo themselves do not require that amount of power boost for their own games, so a beefed up system would only be for third parties (while first party games get an optional shiny new 4k coat). This is just a refresh to keep third party interest in a Nintendo platform high and give the Switch brand a longer lifespan.

 

[davec00ke]

Wait, 15x jump from the Switch?
What? Is that real?

It's the WUST again

 

[Spork4000]

If Nintendo is going to release this later this year or early next year they will announce it soon.

Some comparisons for you:
Switch (NX) announced March 2015, released March 2017 (2 years)
Wii U announced April 2011, released November 2012 (year and a half)
3DS announced March 2010, released March 2011 (1 year)
Wii (revolution) announced June 2004 released November 2006 (2 years)
DS announced January 2004, released November 2004 (10 months)
GC announced August 2000, released November 2001 (13 months)

So as you can see the average time from announcement to release is about a year and a half, and it hasn't been less than 1 year in nearly 20 years. These things can vary, it's not like it's locked in or anything, but I see no reason to think this will be very different. If it's coming this holiday season or early next year I would expect to hear something about it in the next month. Not a formal announcement, just Nintendo saying somewhere "we're working on another console" and maybe give a code name (drake in this case)

Also, I hope this puts into context how strange it would be to announce this next January and release it next March.

I don't think we should necessarily look at past trends to predict the future here. Consoles have been trending toward shorter times from announcement to launch, Also I think Nintendo wants to minimize the amount of time that Switch sales bottom out before Drake comes out.

 

[davec00ke]

This is just a refresh to keep third party interest in a Nintendo platform high and give the Switch brand a longer lifespan.

Nintendo won't invest billions of $ for third parties

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

To put it into perspective, the 3DS focus wasn’t in that it’s a stronger system, it’s a stronger system to facilitate the use of 3D on the device which was the marketing gimmick.

Nintendo could of course just lean on the boring and tried and true which is to use 4K as a gimmick even if it doesn’t hit it, hell the PS4 Pro doesn’t and it was marketed as a 4K unit. Even the One X which hit it more often had moments it was like 1178p or something for some titles that had DRS.

And I’m not saying it isn’t strong enough to be considered a whole new generation of console, I don’t disagree there. But if they aim to not differentiate the system like they did with the 3DS and the DS, and treat it more like the N3DS to the 3DS or the DSi to the DS, what are we left with?


That’s open to interpretation I guess.

Nintendo won't invest billions of $ for third parties

Too late babes. Too late.

 

[9-Volt]

Nintendo won't invest billions of $ for third parties

They literally created Circle Pad Pro and whole New 3DS control scheme because Capcom requested. They actually do what third parties ask for them.

They don't decide when the system's lifespan ends, third parties do. When they leave the system completely, the system dies. That's the bitter lesson Nintendo learned with Wii U, slew of Mario games couldn't save it from the fate the abandoning third parties brought. They need this refresh to keep third parties at bay, thus prolonging system's life.

 

[John Omaha]

I think Nintendo will market this as a sort of half revision/half new console to continue the switch hype but I don't really understand the notion that this will actually be a revision some people seem to have. As in most/all first party games will be cross gen, it wont have unique features, etc.

Yes. I honestly don't get why some people are hung up on that particular topic. Sony, which strongly believes in generations, will most likely not release a single flagship first party PS5 exclusive until 2023, despite the console launching in 2020. Microsoft will only move fully to Xbox Series later this year. The distinction matters less and less.

 

[ILikeFeet]

It's the WUST again

it's not wust since we're not imagining hypothetical architectures. this is straight from the horse's mouth. it's the clock speeds you have to worry about though

 

[davec00ke]

it's not wust since we're not imagining hypothetical architectures. this is straight from the horse's mouth. it's the clock speeds you have to worry about though

Maybe they mistaken an soc for the automotive market for the next Switch

 

[ILikeFeet]

Maybe they mistaken an soc for the automotive market for the next Switch

except that's called Orin. we're talking about dane/drake. the nvidia leak is pretty explicit

 

[Spork4000]

Maybe they mistaken an soc for the automotive market for the next Switch

It would be really strange for the sequel to the Nintendo Switch api to be for cars....

 

[Skittzo]

I think the people throwing around things like 15x or XBSS level are indeed getting ahead of themselves. We're looking at an extremely impressive jump but there are plenty of things we don't yet know and trying to factor in things like DLSS and architectural advancement which only some games will take full advantage of to try and come up with a simple multiplier is a way to disappoint yourselves.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Maybe they mistaken an soc for the automotive market for the next Switch

 

[Alovon11]

Maybe they mistaken an soc for the automotive market for the next Switch

But seriously though Drake with 12SMs is literally embedded in NVN2, aka sequel to NVN, the API NVIDIA built with Nintnedo for Switch

 

[BobNintendofan]

Wait, 15x jump from the Switch?
What? Is that real?

Yes but I am factoring in all advantages here, basic power + architecture advantage + DLSS + raytracing.
In terms of raw flops it will probably be a much more normal leap, but the other factors add up as well, particularly DLSS.

 

[BobNintendofan]

I think the people throwing around things like 15x or XBSS level are indeed getting ahead of themselves. We're looking at an extremely impressive jump but there are plenty of things we don't yet know and trying to factor in things like DLSS and architectural advancement which only some games will take full advantage of to try and come up with a simple multiplier is a way to disappoint yourselves.

I think that people who are trying to temper expectations are simply allowing pessimism and fear of disappointment to blind them from the actual data. Unless Nintendo severely underclocks this (as in, much more than the X1) or they decided to cut features last minute there's no reason to think this thing wont run laps around the switch. There's two things to remember here when you consider the advantage we see with the Drake
1)The X1 was already 2 years old when Nintendo launched their console. This was because Nintendo bought a largely off the shelf product with only very minor modifications, because they were broke and got a good deal. So there will be more hardware advancement than you would normally expect from a console leap just from this.

2)They are switching from a tablet GPU to a car GPU, which gives a substantial advantage in docked mode because a car GPU is designed to use more power, meaning they can increase the gap between handheld and docked.

These two reasons are why it's natural to expect a larger than normal improvement in hardware.

Also, just to be clear the massive leap I am expecting is only in docked mode. I expect a much more standard leap in handheld mode. This is primarily because I expect docked resolution to improve from 900p on average to 4k. This is a 5.7x increase. Even if handheld increases from 720p to 1080p, which I believe to be unnecessary, that's still only around 2x higher. Also docked probably makes more use of the RT cores. So while the gap between handheld and docked on the switch was about 70% or so, the gap between handheld and docked on the switch 2 should be more like 3x as much.

 

[Deleted member 1324]

We've been in diminishing returns a long, long time. It's mostly only detail oriented enthusiasts that show the big reactions anymore.

Remember, improved graphics isn't the return, it's part of the cost. The return is people's reactions.

As good as something like Rift Apart on PS5 looks it’s still constrained by running on a 10teraflop gpu. The 3090ti is around 40teraflops. By the time PS6 comes around it will be around 50teraflops.

There’s still so much visually that companies like Sony and Rockstar (who are willing to push the envelop and spend crazy amounts of money on development) can achieve. Everything from character models, the geometric complexity of Worlds, lighting to texture details to material shading quality to real time ray tracing for all lighting, shadows and reflections. Then crazy sized Worlds like AC Valhalla with full BotW like physics and micro details of a GTA or RDR game.

I said not long ago that if you up the textures then the resolution of their current games and get the 30fps games like BotW/Xenoblade up to 60fps and maybe add 120fps for multiplayer heavy game like Kart, Smash and Splatoon then I think Nintendo are good on their current visual front for a while just because most of the games they publish do not go for realism or massive open photo realistic Worlds like GTA or Spider-Man. Super Mario Odyssey looks astounding at 4k on YouTube for instance.

 

[SiG]

Nintendo won't invest billions of $ for third parties

False. The Switch happened instead of the Nintendo Indy.

 

[Crusters]

As good as something like Rift Apart on PS5 looks it’s still constrained by running on a 10teraflop gpu. The 3090ti is around 40teraflops. By the time PS6 comes around it will be around 50teraflops.

There’s still so much visually that companies like Sony and Rockstar (who are willing to push the envelop and spend crazy amounts of money on development) can achieve. Everything from character models, the geometric complexity of Worlds, lighting to texture details to material shading quality to real time ray tracing for all lighting, shadows and reflections. Then crazy sized Worlds like AC Valhalla with full BotW like physics and micro details of a GTA or RDR game.

I said not long ago that if you up the textures then the resolution of their current games and get the 30fps games like BotW/Xenoblade up to 60fps and maybe add 120fps for multiplayer heavy game like Kart, Smash and Splatoon then I think Nintendo are good on their current visual front for a while just because most of the games they publish do not go for realism or massive open photo realistic Worlds like GTA or Spider-Man. Super Mario Odyssey looks astounding at 4k on YouTube for instance.

And this is exactly why I posted what I did.

Improvements in graphics is not the return that diminishes, that's a common misinterpretation of the concept.

Graphical improvements are on the cost end of the equation, it's the product of what you spend to get the return.

The return is people's reaction to the improvements.

Another thing to remember, is that it's called diminishing returns, not vanishing returns.