BotW 2 has always been a prime candidate for the launch game, but it's not the only option. Assuming a hardware delay just because the game got delayed is premature.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)
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the easy way is to just say that the games will have enhanced modes. when they get a new system, they won't have to start from scratch
ArchedThunder
Uncle Beerus
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By making it clear that it’s the same family and doing deals for the Holidays. Plus they’ll still push metric fuck loads of software.
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But that's bound to still kill their system sales for this holiday. I don't think they ever want to announce new hardware before a holiday season that's not releasing until months later. NX worked because Wii U was already dead, you can't kill what's dead.
Still, it will force a lot of enthusiasts and early adopters to wait on hardware.
Hosermess
Koopa
Premium Pricing
Have you considered the possibility that they could actually release it later than spring 23?
Because that would sure make a whole lot of things make more sense, like why the hardware is much stronger than we expected, why it seems hard to fit this on 8nm, why they're still announcing a bunch of regular switch content in 2023, etc.
Ghostsonplanets
Ghost in the Sales
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They could announce in January 23 instead of late 22. Most devices are announced and sold within a short time-frame these days. Only consoles are outlier in this aspect.
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Aren't these two lines contradictory?
Switch's big blowout was January. This time they could just skip the October video.
lol. I forgot geekbench had an RT score, but that's for cpu so its worthless
that's the thing, enthusiasts and early adopters will care. jimmy and timmy who needs mom and dad to pay for their systems won't be able to get one so soon. but they'll still be able to enjoy Pokemon for the time being. as I said before, we should look beyond gaming consoles and more at phone/pc hardware. previous gens of Iphones and Galaxys are still sold and usable, same as Turing GPUs, because those are more readily available
I'm going to play xenoblade on my launch switch then. The shit will suffer lol
ArchedThunder
Uncle Beerus
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Enthusiasts and early adopters already have Switches.
Yes, they are, thanks for pointing it out I wrote my statement backwards. I meant that it makes no sense to launch the console and then launch the game 6 months later, because you would be better off just delaying the console launch. But launching the game and then launching the console 6 months later would be fine, since the game is still there at launch, likely with some upgraded 4k version.
daase ko
Octorok
It could but it's more in the sense of zelda releasing alone in this time of the year is kinda hmm...
Every single thing that we have seen points to a 2023 release. Nothing at all points to a 2022 release.
Yet we still expect a 2022 release.
Why?
Yet we still expect a 2022 release.
Why?
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You've got it entirely backwards. Literally nothing has actually pointed to a late 2023 release. Everything we've heard thus far has explicitly pointed to late 2022 or early 2023.
I'm not talking about rumors, I mean actual data, information, release schedule, and the nvidia hack. All of it points to 2023. The device we saw is obviously not 8nm, and Nintendo does not have the ability to launch a 5nm system this year when they would have to compete with bigger dogs like Apple. BotW 2 is next year, which means a 2023 release would get it on the next console for its first holiday sales period, and the Mario Kart 8 DLC runs out in 2023, setting up nicely for a new Mario Kart game. I don't see what information at all points to a 2022 release beyond some guy on twitter told me it is.
ShadowFox08
Chain Chomp
it doesn't deconfirm it outright. It could still come out alongside the new Pokemon games.
I'm willing to bet that whether switch 2 comes out this Q4 or not, that it will offer higher resolution and performance as an incentive.
But, I'm not expecting it.
On one hand it does make more sense to sell as many regular switch consoles as possible end of year though with Pokemon. But weird they would announce a successor before that I anticipation like a release for 3-4 months after Pokemon. I dunno. I mean didn't switch get announced in January 2017 or something?
Now I wonder if Nitnendo will announce the new console during summer.
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I'm not talking just about rumors either. The hack does not suggest 2023 over 2022, the person who looked through all the info and shared it here has said it very much could be for a 2022 device.
It totally could be, if Nintendo wants to make the steam deck or fight over processors with Apple. However, it's not gonna be.
Hosermess
Koopa
"there you go, 48 new tracks"
one month later:
"oh, forget about those....here's a new game"
lol
Foltzie
Uncle Muji
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The Osbourne effect is certainly something Nintendo should be concerned with, but if their marketing tells them that current Switch purchasers are still exhausting current supply announcing Switch 4K in late 2022 is better than doing it in January 2023, especially if its already basically confirmed the way Switch was (at least that NX was coming) prior to its formal announcement.
In terms of enthusiasts we're talking OLED model and would assume that most of us have already jumped on the OLED bandwagon if we were going to jump.
I don't think MK would be a launch game. I'm expecting it to launch holiday 2023 with an open world 3D Mario game, Mario Kart around June of 2024, and then Smash for the holidays 2024.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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I think the reason is the same for why the PS5 has the number of shaders it does, and it’s to keep compatibility with the previous system via the PS4 Pro.
The switch’s issue isn’t the GPU, it’s the rest that’s lackluster.
Even if 10 were disabled for 2 to be active, still has the higher memory bandwidth from the LPDDR5 and the better CPU which is where the switch falters.
XBox didn’t need to do this since their method isn’t really attached to the hardware per se, and they are pretty much agnostic to the hardware and are a software piece talking to the hardware. And this makes it possible for MS to have that kind of flexibility at the cost of some performance.
If Nintendo did this, they could worry less about compatibility between architectures.
Nothing since it pretty much finished a few days ago, anything that could or would leak would be weeks after GDC.
The switch can be as low as 150-something GFLOPs in portable or as high as 196GFLOPs I think. There’s another clock that can make it go higher but not many games actually use this.
Docked is at most 393GFLOPS FP32.
The GPU in the switch would chokeslam the GPU in the PS3 and XBox 360 even if on paper it is “worse” because of FLOPS.
Yup, I will lean on that “probably” though more than others
But 2023 seems like the safest bet
Also to add, I think Nintendo is more than fine “sacrificing” Q4 sales so long as Q3 sales are at their peak premium. Q4 is usually a down quarter for them. though with the switch it has still been a really successful quarter. Also, they will have another game that takes that “before the quarter end” sales. I think it was Zelda, Yoshi, Animal Crossing, Monster Hunter, Kirby, and now looks like Zelda again. Most of these were humongous sellers near the end of their respective quarters too. Looks good on a report I think.
Some of us have been team 2023 anyway, others have been team 2022. But the difference is really just a few months.
D
Deleted member 2551
Guest
Spring 2023 only has 2 Friday in March, March 24th and March 31st. You are betting on BotW 2 to launch at the earliest possible slot for an hypothetical Switch 2 to launch alongside it.
while the osbourne effect is certainly a thing, I don't think devices that has software that spans the variations are too affected by it. Zelda will still be on Mariko, and so will Nintendo's games for the time being. they'll be able to ride out Mariko stock while Drake is on shelfs (or being shipped to shelves)
The timing in this case is exceptionally meaningful, while it may not seem so on the surface, because Nintendo does most of their business in the holidays. So while the next switch may technically launch in spring 2023, the relevant period for them would be holiday 2023 regardless, which is a full year. This can have a lot of important effects, like on software output and securing better hardware. 5nm chips aren't gonna be hard to find in holiday 2023, for example.
ArchedThunder
Uncle Beerus
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Publishers almost never mean the actual seasons when they say these things. “Spring” usually means all of March and can even include February.
D
Deleted member 2551
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Spring also means early June tho.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Yes they are.
TSMC Expected to Begin 3nm Chip Production in Late 2022 Ahead of First M3 Macs
TSMC plans to begin commercial production of chips built on its 3nm process in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to industry sources cited by...
www.macrumors.com
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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If the big dogs that already moved to 5nm and have the 7nm consoles in dire straits to find doesn’t tell you anything, I don’t know what to tell you.The big dogs are gonna be on 3nm by then. Especially as they head into their second year in 2024, they're gonna have very few big companies fighting them for that supply.TSMC Expected to Begin 3nm Chip Production in Late 2022 Ahead of First M3 Macs
TSMC plans to begin commercial production of chips built on its 3nm process in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to industry sources cited by...
That's just the chip shortage in general. I'm expecting that to get better, but if it doesn't, no process is gonna save Nintendo's launch.
ArchedThunder
Uncle Beerus
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June is usually just referred to as Summer.
I would be incredibly shocked if Nintendo ran with over 1.2 TFLOPS(FP32) undocked.
To hit this they would need to run all 1536 CUDA cores at 395 MHz or run 768 CUDA cores at 790MHz.
Given that battery life and heat are key factors for Nintendo, I do not seem them doing it.
The uplift when moving from the GameCube to the Wii was about 2 X.
The current Switch performance works out to:
Docked = 0.393216 TLOPS
Undocked = 0.196608 FLOPS
I was suggesting the Switch 4K would be under 2.9 TFLOPS docked and given I believe half of the GPU will be normally be off while in handheld, under 0.6 TFOPS undocked.
That works out to approximately up to 7X increase in GPU docked performance
and a 3X increase in undocked GPU performance.
This already makes the Switch 4K more powerful undocked then the OG Switch is docked!
For Nintendo, in one generational jump, overall that actually seems a little on the high end to me.
Would be very interested in everyone's thoughts on this.
I'm really trying not to be rude but you are so obviously uninformed on video game generational leaps. 3x would in fact be an extremely small leap in performance, especially when you consider that the Switch's processor was already 2 years old when the console came out. You are talking about likely 8-9 years of advancement for 3x the performance. This goes beyond being just a budget option, it's frankly laughable.
Do you understand how insanely underpowered this would be? Tablets when the switch 2 comes out will most likely be around 2.5 tflops, and you are predicting a 600 gflops switch 2. Your phone is probably stronger than that, and this is a dedicated video game console.
OP
OP
Theoretically, a SoC fabricated using Samsung's 8N process node can absolutely fit inside a console the same size as the OLED model by using a much more compact motherboard (e.g. Jetson Orin NX).
The only time I could see Nintendo and Nvidia competing with Apple over capacity is if Nintendo and Nvidia are planning to use TSMC's N5 process node for the fabrication of Drake, which I don't think is a very high possibility, although not a close to zero possibility.
I think Samsung's 5LPE process node being used for the fabrication of Drake is definitely a possibility, especially with Orin probably being fabricated using Samsung's 8N process node, and with T239 rumoured to be a custom variation of Orin. And Nintendo and Nvidia won't be competing with Apple for capacity for Samsung's 5LPE process node since Apple doesn't use Samsung's 5LPE process node.
And I think there's also a possibility Nintendo and Nvidia could use TSMC's N6 process node for the fabrication of Drake, assuming TSMC is Nintendo's and Nvidia's semiconductor foundry company of choice.
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Happy to provide the math and examples
| Ops / CUDA | CUDA | Operating frequency | FP32 | FP32 in TFLOPS | |
| Tegra X1 @ 15W | 2 | 256 | 1000 | 512000 | 0.512 |
| Switch Dock | 2 | 256 | 768 | 393216 | 0.393216 |
| Switch Undock | 2 | 256 | 384 | 196608 | 0.196608 |
The stock Tegra X1 chip, when clocked at ~1000 MHz gives you 0.5 TFLOPS of FP32 (or 1 TFLOP of FP16). This is consistent with the Nvidia marketing around the Terga X1 performance. (Some articles were very tricky, and called it a "1 TFLOP machine", but when you dug in, they were quoting the FP16 performance even though the standard is FP32)
Once you lower the clocks down, which allows it to run cooler, allowing for a less expensive cooling solution, extends the chips lifespan, and lowers the power required when running on battery. We should expect Nintendo to repeat this and underclock again.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
Announcing in holidays, it will mostly only be enthusiasts that see this announcmemt that have already bought a switch, if it hurts overall holiday sales it won’t be by much. There will also be a price decrease for the old switch this holiday to go along with the new hardware announcement
Ghostsonplanets
Ghost in the Sales
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The big dogs won't be on N3 by 2023. Apple A16/M2 will use N4P. Apple A17 will be out only late 23. The only top dog on N3 by Q1/Q2 23 will be Intel.The big dogs are gonna be on 3nm by then. Especially as they head into their second year in 2024, they're gonna have very few big companies fighting them for that supply.TSMC Expected to Begin 3nm Chip Production in Late 2022 Ahead of First M3 Macs
TSMC plans to begin commercial production of chips built on its 3nm process in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to industry sources cited by...
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
Don't want to be that guy, but you are coming off as a bit aggressive.
Tablets, phones etc run in burst, they maybe 2.5 TFLOPS running at max but they quickly throttle so its a false equivalency. They also don't need to maintain that performance for 3+ hours.
We also have to consider the performance delta between docked and handheld mode. If Nintendo sticks to a 720p display (likely imo if they keep the form factor the same,) then the delta between docked and handheld will be even larger.
Whilst 600gflops is probably a little low I can see Nintendo running a 302mhz clock on the gpu giving us around 930gflops in handheld.
Also, regarding previous comments on late 2023 being likely. This is just as baseless as any claims anyone else has made. Most insiders stated a window of late 2022 - early 2023 and that's what I've seen most people agree with. The state of NVN2 and the progress on T239 in the leak also indicates a product that is very far along and likely ready to at least sample soon.
Claims of not having fab space for 5nm are baseless, Nvidia has secured 5nm TSMC capacity and reportedly has some Samsung 5nm capacity they could use later this year. The window for Drake in 2022 was always tight, for me the movement of BOTW2 makes spring 2023 for the Drake switch more likely and the leak, insiders and activity from nvidia makes this also a possibility.
Not saying late 2023 is not likely either, I'm just saying that there are no grounds to dismiss spring 2023 either and even holiday 2022 is still possible depending on what other releases Nintendo has up its sleeves.
Good thing if you read my post I was specifically talking about holiday 2023.
Let's set the stage here for where handheld expectations can reasonably be.
While it varies heavily by year somewhere around 30-40% increase is generally what you expect from mobile performance per year. 8 years of standard increase in performance (2015-2023) would put the switch 2 at the low end around 1.6 tflops. However, I think we're all expecting Nintendo to go with less budget hardware options this time. Factoring that in but also factoring in the increased power draw from DLSS, I think putting the absolute minimum handheld performance at 1.2 tflops is being in fact very generous. And I think my 1.6 tflop expectation is completely reasonable. I think anyone going below that is just being pessimistic.
While it varies heavily by year somewhere around 30-40% increase is generally what you expect from mobile performance per year. 8 years of standard increase in performance (2015-2023) would put the switch 2 at the low end around 1.6 tflops. However, I think we're all expecting Nintendo to go with less budget hardware options this time. Factoring that in but also factoring in the increased power draw from DLSS, I think putting the absolute minimum handheld performance at 1.2 tflops is being in fact very generous. And I think my 1.6 tflop expectation is completely reasonable. I think anyone going below that is just being pessimistic.
I disagree with this on multiple levels.
1. Flops isn't the be all, end all of game performance measurement. 600 Gflops ampere, with a much less bottlenecked design and a ton of new features (not to mention the cpu upgrade), would absolutely be a good upgrade.
2. Tablets typically cannot max out their performance for a very long time. Nintendo will most likely go for sustainable, stable, reliable performance as they did with the original Switch that was also clocked much slower than other TX1 devices. This mean comparing it to the peak performance of other tablets and phones, is comparing apples to oranges.
But in fact, it is not. The switch which was using 2 year old hardware when it released was almost as strong as the ipad that launched at the same time while in portable. There's no reason to believe they cant match current high end tablets if they use newer hardware, and expecting them to be far behind other tablets is delusional. Now of course I am not expecting the flops to be as high because they'll reserve some of the power for DLSS and potentially raytracing though I think they might just disable that in portable.
LiC
Member
My personal conclusion based on the leak is simply "it wasn't just started, and it's not done yet."
If you want to talk about sampling, though, devkits were supposedly out in late 2020. If that's true, then it's a much better indication of progress than anything in the leaked files.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Anyone that actually expected Nintendo to have a safe launch with the next device was delusional. They can be on 8nm or they can be on 7nm or 5nm, the product was going to be hard to find but it will going to get better, but don’t expect some amazing development for the shortages.
It was going to be hard to find no matter what node
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They were absolutely wrong because they conflated production information about the OLED model with development information about Drake. This is all well documented.
Orin was never going to release before 2022, it was planned for this year as far back as 2019. I find it extremely unlikely Drake or Dane or whatever was ever planned for 2021.
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