Considering the company
lost half its revenue,
fired 80% of its workforce, and
lost 11.6% of its users all in one year while being
$13 billion in debt and
still having a negative cashflow, Twitter's firmly in 1998 Sega territory. Charging people to make new accounts isn't going to help that, when other social media services offer free accounts with fewer bots and less senators. At this point the optimistic route is that it ends up like Flickr, Myspace, or Tumblr.
The perceived influence of the site in the first place is outsized. Twitter has over 500 million monthly active users, but Facebook has over 3
billion and Instagram 2 billion. This is entirely down to who uses it--knowledge workers, journalists, talking heads, influencers, and political commentators. When the people that talk the most adopt a platform, that makes it seem like a bigger phenomenon than it really is.
With user behavior now
shifting to back closed messaging systems, I don't think there is a next Twitter; we're just watching the social media era wind down. Brands that want to blast out their message stand more to gain from pushing e-mail newsletters and setting up their own websites again, than trying to find the next Twitter. It's been suggested that the
idea of Twitter as a
"networking engine and signaler of clout" will persist beyond the site's actual life because the media industry is dependent on this tool existing, but I have doubts about whether it will really play out in the form of a Threads or Bluesky-type app. LinkedIn already wants to co-opt this role in a more "respectable" capacity by pushing users to write articles. Everyone not participating in the writer clout chase will gravitate to platforms that serve their needs.
In the art world, everything is in chaos. Some are going to Misskey, others to Artgram. Others are going back to Pixiv, Tumblr, ArtStation, or Instagram. Some are waiting for Bluesky to be public, and some are straight-up building their own websites. It's not just Twitter's decline that's causing this, but also the rise of machine learning tools flooding every site with an infinite supply of images dwarfing any quantity human hands can produce. (Or moderate, for that matter.) It doesn't even matter if you're better than the machine when the machine can outshout you in sheer volume--for that reason, artists will probably settle on the platform that excludes machine learning as much as possible. Which at this time probably
is just making your own portfolio site to share in Discord servers and the like, since content moderating against AI imagery is such a Herculean task.