StarTopic Nintendo Switch 2 Speculation Thread |ST| The Future is Probably a Year From Now

[D36]

I would do morally questionable things in exchange for Fortune Street being a launch window game.

I would do unquestionably immoral things for Custom Robo.

I would camp outside Nintendo HQ with a picket sign for a remaster of Kid Icarus Uprising and if I don't get I'll cry!

 

[Raccoon]

as we speak Pikmin 5 demos are being tinkered with in Unreal Engine 5 on Switch 2 kits at Eighting

 

[Thunder84]

The prospect of a full Switch 2 showcase is tantalizing. Directs are almost always in the 3-4 star range, but a big console blowout has 5 star potential with how much they can show.

This place is gonna be absolutely nuts in the lead up, can’t wait for that lol

 

[Neoxon]

Maybe, it all depends on when they do this reveal.. but I think they will focus on upcoming games mostly. I think the presentation will be like 60-90 minutes long and there's not going to be too much time for all the publishers that want to be showcased. Do I think Capcom would want Street Fighter over Resident Evil or Monster Hunter? I'm not so sure.

It's most certainly going to release on Switch 2 though and probably in the first year!

My guesses for what third parties would show up:

Square Enix - New Ip, DQ 12 and something Final Fantasy/
Actiblizz - CoD is going to be there, I would put the bank on this
Capcom - Monster Hunter
Ubi - Farcry or Ass-creed
EA - Sports
2K - Something, But I do think they will be there

MH6 probably isn’t until 2025 to put some distance between it & DD2. That plus Street Fighter has a long history with the launch windows of Nintendo handhelds, not to mention what Nakayama & Matsumoto said to Game Informer.

 

[D36]

Said this in the hardware thread, but it'll be funny if Prime 4 is the launch title without something like Mario launching with it. I still think we're grossly placing too much emphasis on what a "good" launch looks like.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I don't think the main team is doing the DLC. Those are just graphical refreshes of existing tracks, probably have junior staffers earning their stripes doing them overseen by a few vets.

IMO Mario Kart Next has probably been in development for the next system since at least 2021.

I agree. I just don't think they'll go from releasing a big batch of DLC over the course of ~20 months to releasing the sequel a few months later. If the system is quite late in 2024 then maybe it would work.

 

[D36]

I'm thinking it'll be the reverse. Unless a major Metroid game isn't a good launch title system-seller.

Despite what a lot of people are saying, I think it'll be a fine launch title, even without a bigger companion piece.

 

[Neoxon]

Said this in the hardware thread, but it'll be funny if Prime 4 is the launch title without something like Mario launching with it. I still think we're grossly placing too much emphasis on what a "good" launch looks like.

The key to the Switch 1’s success was having a big launch title that enticed the mainstream as much as it did the hardcore base. Metroid Prime 4 only covers the latter, not to mention that making MP4 their sole launch title would basically be ignoring the Japanese audience (as they don’t care about Metroid in general). And that wouldn’t send the best message to one of the Switch 1’s most successful markets.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

Despite what a lot of people are saying, I think it'll be a fine launch title, even without a bigger companion piece.

The real problem with Metroid being the only launch title isn't the launch month, launch month will probably only have 2.5-4 million units in circulation. The real problem is for the months after. You want a title that appeals enough to the core/casual audience to keep them buying consoles.

Breath of the Wild basically had two months to itself, and even then Mario Kart's true power is as a holiday seller, and ARMS was not that big. It basically held down the line till Splatoon 2 (though Mario Kart helped a lot). Also Japan.

 

[D36]

Wrong and this is such a bad way to run a business. The launch day is your starting point. The user base grows for as long as the system is out (years). That’s like saying BotW should’ve waited months and not released on launch day. You don’t compromise your release for some fantasy of Prime 4 being a launch title. It doesn’t and will never ever have the cache as a new 3D Mario game.

It's not gonna compromise the launch of a system that will very likely have BC and have more third-party support than it's predecessor out the gate. I fail to understand why this line of thinking is so prevalent.

 

[D36]

The real problem with Metroid being the only launch title isn't the launch month, launch month will probably only have 2.5-4 million units in circulation. The real problem is for the months after. You want a title that appeals enough to the core/casual audience to keep them buying consoles.

Breath of the Wild basically had two months to itself, and even then Mario Kart's true power is as a holiday seller, and ARMS was not that big. It basically held down the line till Splatoon 2 (though Mario Kart helped a lot). Also Japan.

I don't think that's something that needs to be factored in, especially since BotW's success was unforseen. I see no real need to repeat that and Nintendo wouldn't be resting on their laurels because of it.

 

[D36]

Why are we acting weird over Metroid?

 

[Mbolibombo]

MH6 probably isn’t until 2025 to put some distance between it & DD2. That plus Street Fighter has a long history with the launch windows of Nintendo handhelds, not to mention what Nakayama & Matsumoto said to Game Informer.

Not sure why that's a problem.

 

[Rooster]

Said this in the hardware thread, but it'll be funny if Prime 4 is the launch title without something like Mario launching with it. I still think we're grossly placing too much emphasis on what a "good" launch looks like.

I think, for Nintendo, a good launch title is one that Japan will also care about.

Why are we acting weird over Metroid?

Because you wouldn't launch with just Kirby or Fire Emblem either.

 

[LoneRanger]

Its likely Nintendo will make 2 software presentations after revealing Switch NG hardware and before its launch.

One in June focusing mainly in its launch quarter titles and some early 2025 games. I think it will open with 3D Mario, Prime 4 in middle and end with Mario Kart.

Other one in September announcing mostly H1 2025 titles. Not all games as Switch NG exclusive, there will be some (first or third) party titles as cross-gen. It will end with a little teaser or Luigis Mansion 4 (LM3 and 2 HD got their first teaser 1 year before its release).

All mayor third party publishers will have presence in both presentations either with late ports or new multi-platform software coming to all systems in future.

 

[justanotherperson]

Its likely Nintendo will make 2 software presentations after revealing Switch NG hardware and before its launch.

One in June focusing mainly in its launch quarter titles and some early 2025 games. I think it will open with 3D Mario, Prime 4 in middle and end with Mario Kart.

Other one in September announcing mostly H1 2025 titles. Not all games as Switch NG exclusive, there will be some (first or third) party titles. It will end with a little teaser or Luigis Mansion 4 (LM3 and 2 HD got their first teaser 1 year before its release)

All mayor third party publishers will have presence in both presentations either with late ports or new multi-platform software coming to all systems in future.

I think next year we're getting an October Direct, just like that April one in 2017

 

[LoneRanger]

I think next year we're getting an October Direct, just like that April one in 2017

But why? If next HW in launching around late september to early november I think it makes more sense to make the usual september direct a little early than next HW launch to make a final push, then focus all fall marketing into various holiday titles.

 

[karmitt]

Why are we acting weird over Metroid?

Some people really don’t like or agree with the idea that the game could be the major launch title, and have larger appeal than previous entries.

I’ve already stated I think it’s very possible Metroid could be set to impress - we haven’t had a new Prime in ages, and Retro has heaps of new talent. Anybody acting like the game’s audience is fixed at 3 million (or some other arbitrary low number) is talking out of their ass. Luigi’s Mansion sold 13+ million to the expectation of no one. We don’t know anything about the game other than it’s Metroid - even the blurb from Nintendo’s site that mentioned it was returning to its first person roots and focusing on isolation is nowhere to be found (at least I can’t find it). The game could have an over the shoulder camera option for all we know.

3D Mario is an easy choice for a launch title. Tears of the Kingdom probably would have been too but we can see how that panned out. I’m not making any assumptions at this point.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Why are we acting weird over Metroid?

How are we being weird? You’re acting like it’s a juggernaut. What appeal does it have in Japan? You know where Nintendo is located and they put Japan on a pedestal? I think it’s a fantasy for some people (westerners mainly) to have Metroid as a launch title. It doesn’t have the massive appeal to carry the launch and beyond like 3D Mario will. It has little appeal in Japan and that’s a huge issue.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

Why are we acting weird over Metroid?

Probably because I famously hate Metroid

 

[D36]

How are we being weird? You’re acting like it’s a juggernaut. What appeal does it have in Japan? You know where Nintendo is located and they put Japan on a pedestal? I think it’s a fantasy for some people (westerners mainly) to have Metroid as a launch title. It doesn’t have the massive appeal to carry the launch and beyond like 3D Mario will. It has little appeal in Japan and that’s a huge issue.

I think it has the potential to be a juggernaut. My problem is how immediately dismissive were being for arbitrary reasons.

 

[Rooster]

I think if the next HW is launching next Sept we'd see it before June. That's a short window for a game, let alone a system. Plus with a window that short for a system, you're gambling against some sort of leak stealing some of the thunder.

If it launches in Sept, I'd be surprised if it was later than a spring reveal tbh. If November, fair enough.

 

[LuckyNumber69]

If Switch 2 launches in September, then I think the "March" rumblings Nate's been hearing about makes sense as the reveal trailer; Switch 1 had its reveal trailer in October, 5 months before release, while a March reveal for Switch 2 would put it at six months before release, so not too much longer.

The big June Direct next year can then be the equivalent of the January 2017 presentation.

If everything plays out similarly to the above, then I think Nintendo will skip a February Direct. Maybe a Jan/Feb mini at best that ties together loose ends before the floodgates open for big new projects in March and beyond.

 

[Giancarlo]

i hoping even if Switch sucessor is a massive leap to Switch as rumors/report seen to indicate, Nintendo and third parties keep this contant cadence of games, not have a drought like Wii U have

 

[Amadeus]

We need another party game after Wii sport, Nintendoland and 1-2 Switch

 

[Thunder84]

The most important thing is having at least one major evergreen on the console by the holiday season. The order doesn’t really matter that much.

If the console launches in the summer with Metroid Prime, and 3D Mario launches in the fall, things will still go swimmingly.

 

[Giancarlo]

I agree MK would be a great launch title, but there's a world of difference between single-player Metroid and Mario. If the latter is a launch title, I think the audience for the former is still going to be excited for it touching down, because of the diehard, infrequent, and long-awaited nature.

But if you only had the former, you'd be failing to cater to most of the potential market given the limited waves Metroid makes.

Also one's a kinda edgy, fairly dark (by Nintendo standards) metroidvania/adventure/FPS and the other is, for the most part, a goofy, light-hearted, very child-friendly platformer. I don't think they step on each other's toes much.


But those are exactly the optimal kind of games that sell the system. Which Nintendo is going to want to do.


I think you're underestimating how many people are gonna be down to buy a new Switch after the better part of eight years, especially once they see the games for it. While Nintendo home consoles usually end in a whimper, and the Switch is still going strong, a system doesn't need to be running on fumes for people to be ready for the next thing.

I mean, assuming Nintendo doesn't shit the bed marketing/rollout-wise.


But the priority being the Switch 2 means their goal with software is to push the system and push people towards the system. If everything is a cross-release, then their priority is to have every title sell as much as it can as soon as it can. Which would hinder the former goal, considering it would dilute the draw to the priority. That's counterproductive to releasing a new system.

They're not going to forget about the Switch's install base next year, or the year after that (or maybe even the year after that) but they're also not going to give it near as much high-profile support once the successor arrives.

Nintendo will suport Nintendo Switch up to the fouth year of Switch sucessor, this suport will be similar to the first 3 years of PS5(meaning expect a lot of cross-gen games, and in year 4 of Switch sucessor, games fully build for it hardware, just like PS5 is getting games build for the hardware)

 

[Dark Cloud]

We need another party game after Wii sport, Nintendoland and 1-2 Switch

Yeah Nintendo will come up with a new IP just like those are all new IPs. Another new casual new IP at launch makes sense. It would be something related to the gimmick of the system like those games were. So far we have rumors of the cameras and maybe AR? Maybe they stick with “you have two joycons to use in a multiplayer game” a long with AR or not. It’ll be interesting to see.

 

[P4bl0]

How are we being weird? You’re acting like it’s a juggernaut. What appeal does it have in Japan? You know where Nintendo is located and they put Japan on a pedestal? I think it’s a fantasy for some people (westerners mainly) to have Metroid as a launch title. It doesn’t have the massive appeal to carry the launch and beyond like 3D Mario will. It has little appeal in Japan and that’s a huge issue.

MP4 will be a juggernaut, whether you like Metroid or not, they put in more than 6 years of development with millions invested. You don't know what appeal it has in Japan since it hasn't released. There is a marketing practice called revitalizing and that's what they have been doing with Metroid so far, so let's see where it goes and let's not count one's chickens before they are hatched

And as of their franchises appeal, Nintendo stated recently that Metroid was one of their key franchises, alongside Zelda, Mario, Kirby.
Nintendo is on a whole new wave now it's not the same Nintendo from 10 years ago with weird marketing and decisions.

This is going to be a God of War type of AAA release for Nintendo and the perfect choice to showcase the new console capabilities

 

[lemonfresh]

Every franchise in switch got a boost and are some of the best selling franchises in thier series whst make you guys think metroid prime would be different

 

[qwerp]

MP4 will be a juggernaut, whether you like it or not, they put in more than 6 years of development with millions invested. You don't know what appeal it has in Japan since it hasn't released.

Prime 4, in all likelihood, will not be a juggernaut, especially compared to the likes of BOTW.

Metroid Dread, which had a lot of marketing (releasing alongside the OLED) and hype around it still only managed to scrape 3 million units sold.

Japan's infamous history has told us it won't appeal to them on a broad scale. Metroid has NEVER sold well there.

MP4 will be the best selling metroid game, but that isn't saying much. Nintendo won't risk a launch of a new system by having prime 4 as the only 1st party release.

 

[MissingNo.]

I have not talked about SNES Remix in a while. I still want it. But I think that ship has sailed.

Speaking of ships that have sailed, I will never forgive Nintendo for having released a Japan exclusive video game in 2021. RIP, Buddy Mission BOND, we hardly knew ya.

 

[D36]

Why does Metroid have to appeal to Japan, when you have series like God of War breaking 10 million?

 

[EvilChameleon]

Why does Metroid have to appeal to Japan, when you have series like God of War breaking 10 million?

Well I don't think Sony cares all that much about their home market in the way Nintendo still does.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

Why does Metroid have to appeal to Japan, when you have series like God of War breaking 10 million?

Because Nintendo sells consoles in Japan, so it would be a good idea to have appealing software.

That being said like @Thunder84 said, what's more important is the launch window and consistent momentum. They could always have games that appeal to Japan later.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Ok. I’m done with the Metroid being a launch title conversation lol. I know what the billion dollar company will rest their laurels and future of their system on. All of a sudden they won’t care about their second biggest regions fans (Japan) is mind blowing to me.

There is never a guarantee a franchise will blow up or have some magical appeal to Japan. Mario has the appeal as every Nintendo fan knows. It has the appeal for decades. No matter what Nintendo thinks Prime 4 may do, you do not rest your launch on “may” when the surefire is sitting there on the golden plate.

 

[qwerp]

Why does Metroid have to appeal to Japan, when you have series like God of War breaking 10 million?

Because Nintendo cares deeply about Japan.

There is no reason for them to release Prime 4 when we already know that a 3D Mario is just waiting to be released, which will appeal to a MUCH greater audience.

 

[Rooster]

Some people really don’t like or agree with the idea that the game could be the major launch title, and have larger appeal than previous entries.

I’ve already stated I think it’s very possible Metroid could be set to impress - we haven’t had a new Prime in ages, and Retro has heaps of new talent. Anybody acting like the game’s audience is fixed at 3 million (or some other arbitrary low number) is talking out of their ass. Luigi’s Mansion sold 13+ million to the expectation of no one. We don’t know anything about the game other than it’s Metroid - even the blurb from Nintendo’s site that mentioned it was returning to its first person roots and focusing on isolation is nowhere to be found (at least I can’t find it). The game could have an over the shoulder camera option for all we know.

3D Mario is an easy choice for a launch title. Tears of the Kingdom probably would have been too but we can see how that panned out. I’m not making any assumptions at this point.

I think it has the potential to be a juggernaut. My problem is how immediately dismissive were being for arbitrary reasons.

Yeah, Luigi's Mansion sold 13+ million to the expectation of no one. It also stars Luigi. If that's the parallel, the flagship launch title of a new system is not when Nintendo gambles on a longstanding IP jumping up one, two tiers. If anything, Nintendo will get more calculated for a system launch.

It's not like Metroid is invariably fixed at 3 mil, MP4 will probably exceed that at some point, but if anyone is talking out of their ass, it's someone who is casting Metroid in the headlining position Mario or Zelda usually take and acting like it's crazy that people would find that replacement questionable.

Metroid isn't some obscure series by any means, but it's a far cry from Nintendo's top tier commercially and demographically. Especially in Japan, which Nintendo cares about. Not knowing much about the game, not having got one in a while, Retro being talented; the reasons people aren't expecting it to be a juggernaut aren't arbitrary, the reasons people are expecting it to be a juggernaut are arbitrary.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Just because people think Mario will launch doesn’t mean Metroid Prime 4 won’t have a big growth in sales btw. Metroid Prime 4 will easily be the best selling Metroid game as far as I’m concerned.

 

[qwerp]

Metroid Prime 4 will easily be the best selling Metroid game as far as I’m concerned.

That's not saying much, but yeah its true. It releasing on Switch 1 whilst being one of the first 1st party games on switch 2 will bring it easily to at least 5mil.

 

[MissingNo.]

This whole debate just keeps going in circles, so I posit that Nintendo will launch the system with Ring Fit Adventure 2 instead, and refuse to release any other game on it.

 

[P4bl0]

Prime 4, in all likelihood, will not be a juggernaut, especially compared to the likes of BOTW.

Bro stop, MP4 is going to be GOTY 2024 contender

Metroid Dread, which had a lot of marketing (releasing alongside the OLED) and hype around it still only managed to scrape 3 million units sold.

Japan's infamous history has told us it won't appeal to them on a broad scale. Metroid has NEVER sold well there.

MP4 will be the best selling metroid game, but that isn't saying much. Nintendo won't risk a launch of a new system by having prime 4 as the only 1st party release.

Let's not compare a 2D and a 3D game it's two different worlds

3 million for a 2D Metroid Game is their best selling and that's a great performance

Who talked about having Prime 4 as the only 1st party release ? That wouldn't make sense to have only one title

 

[D36]

Ok. I’m done with the Metroid being a launch title conversation lol. I know what the billion dollar company will rest their laurels and future of their system on. All of a sudden they won’t care about their second biggest regions fans (Japan) is mind blowing to me.

There is never a guarantee a franchise will blow up or have some magical appeal to Japan. Mario has the appeal as every Nintendo fan knows. It has the appeal for decades. No matter what Nintendo thinks Prime 4 may do, you do not rest your launch on “may” when the surefire is sitting there on the golden plate.

I genuinely believe that launching with a relatively niche title like Metroid will not harm the Switch 2. All I'm saying is that it has potential, it may not do Zelda numbers, but that's OK. Not everything has to strictly appeal to Japan, either, not even at launch. I can't help but feel like a lot of this sales talk has skewed our perspective a bit and we're putting too much emphasis on what constitutes as a "good launch" and often based on arbitrary reasoning.

Edit: Typo

 

[qwerp]

This whole debate just keeps going in circles, so I posit that Nintendo will launch the system with Ring Fit Adventure 2 instead, and refuse to release any other game on it.

Would still sell more than the Wii U.

 

[Dark Cloud]

That's not saying much, but yeah its true. It releasing on Switch 1 whilst being one of the first 1st party games on switch 2 will bring it easily to at least 5mil.

Right. It’s not saying much, but I wanted to make that part clear since I never touch on it lol. 5 million could be the big growth. It’s to address folks who say it should get the jump like other series have with Switch.

Metroid Dread got a jump, but it’s not much. It’s over 3 million. It ain’t like the jump was even 5 million. This series ain’t good enough to be a launch title even with a jump. The jump will most likely come from the west and not Japan.

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

some of you are going to lose your minds when Mario isn't the launch title

 

[qwerp]

Bro stop, MP4 is going to be GOTY 2024 contender

Never said it wasn't going to be.
Highly praised game != Guaranteed explosive high sales

Let's not compare a 2D and a 3D game it's two different worlds

You say that when Mario wonder is about to sell 15+ million

3 million for a 2D Metroid Game is their best selling and that's a great performance

Who talked about having Prime 4 as the only 1st party release ? That wouldn't make sense to have only one title

Nintendo will not release a 3D Mario and Prime 4 at the same time. They would HAVE separate them, otherwise Prime 4 would be overshadowed.

 

[Dark Cloud]

This whole debate just keeps going in circles, so I posit that Nintendo will launch the system with Ring Fit Adventure 2 instead, and refuse to release any other game on it.

I mean that has way more appeal than Metroid lol.

Bro stop, MP4 is going to be GOTY 2024 contender




Let's not compare a 2D and a 3D game it's two different worlds

3 million for a 2D Metroid Game is their best selling and that's a great performance

Who talked about having Prime 4 as the only 1st party release ? That wouldn't make sense to have only one title

Right because it being GOTY quality means it’ll have amazing sales. Again you only care about western society and their love for Metroid which was already more niche to begin with.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

I genuinely believe that launching with a relatively niche title like Metroid will harm the Switch 2.

Well, there you go?

 

[Rooster]

Nintendo will suport Nintendo Switch up to the fouth year of Switch sucessor, this suport will be similar to the first 3 years of PS5(meaning expect a lot of cross-gen games, and in year 4 of Switch sucessor, games fully build for it hardware, just like PS5 is getting games build for the hardware)

Well that's Nintendo, always copying Sony.
/s

some of you are going to lose your minds when Mario isn't the launch title

What's the launch title