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Indeed. Showing only a 2D Mario would be disappointing.
But I'm reticent in attributing any relevance to Gamescom. Nintendo could showcase DLCs, evergreen titles and a couple of new games and call it a day. Their presence could be a mere generic marketing push for the whole brand, in preparation for the next years, and not for specific titles. If the alleged 2D Mario has fresh ideas and is a multiplayer party mayhem, it could be enough.
I'm expecting a September Direct, so they can't blow their full load right now. Gamescom, being late August, would always be limited in scope.
Your middle paragraph describes perfectly how Nintendo usually sees and plans their GamesCom attendance.
Of course, if they announce a new 2D Mario this week, it'll be the bigger focus at their booth, but there will be a lot of demo stations for evergreens, and yes also for their "family" (casual) stuff like Horse Shit game.
And a few stations for upcoming Indie games.
Source: My own experiences from attending GamesCom for 11 years until Covid hit.
When thinking about GamesCom and Nintendo, always keep in mind that this stuff will be planned and done by Nintendo Germany, and these people are still in the "Wii Blue Ocean" mindset.
You can see it how they do their TV ads. 80% it's for one of the casual games like Switch Sports, the other 20% are Kirby, Pokemon and Splatoon.
During the "height" of TotK's release, i've seen a Zelda TV ad a whoopin' 4 times.