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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST4| Tears of the Speculation

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Kevin said:
Weird I don't recall seeing it the other day when I was on the store page. Either way there has been a LOT of movement this week in regards to Advanced Wars so I feel that's enough evidence for us to go to Phase 2 of our holy plan! IT'S HAPPENING!!! lol
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Gather together my fellow Nintendo Famiboarders and follow me right this way. YES... YES... THIS WAY... just down this dark hallway here, right pass this sewer grate. Please do ignore that foul odor... right this way... oh don't you worry about that loud bone crunching sounds and loud voices of hellish anguish you're hearing. Pay no attention, The Nintendo Direct is coming and we must all be in the right place at the right time. Please right this way!
 
Idk this week is becoming more and more likely, still I have the feeling its gonna be the week of the 8th. Anyways we wont have to wait much longer.
 
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I’m not really up to date with most game development cycles unless I’m actually interested in them, but out of curiosity.

Excluding Zelda which always have long development cycles, and obscure things like Miyamoto saying (or mistranslation) saying Pikmin 4 was nearly done like 7 years ago, or Metroid dread - is Metroid Prime 4 one of Nintendo’s games with the longest “announcement to gameplay” where they’ve announced a game but no gameplay, or even an official CGI trailer? It’s just over 4 years now isn’t it? Is there anything else that comes close?

Only other things I can think of are games from the 90’s and early 2000’s where studios would say preemptive comments like “we are working on X game”, but then we never saw it. At least with MP4 we got a logo and stuffs

Also I forget, who did we believe the original developers for MP4 to be? Was it Bandai?
 
We are now 50/50 of It happening the next week or the next next week... Too many smoke already
WE WANT FIRE
"Chibi Robot in Flames"
 
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I have a feeling that Nintendo will private last year's February Direct, to avoid confusion. I know they had Directs on the same days in the past but that was always a more than a year gap.
 
Awesomegames23 said:
Today, Fami learns addition and subtraction.
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Now Let's Go for something a little more complex
X is the number of the direct announcement
Y is the direct date
Z is the direct week
What is the true valor of X/Y based on the probability of It being any week in february except the last one?
 
Should warn that online retail sites are not the word of god and can be just as reactive to rumors and speculation as we are (e.g. - so many sites adding Switch Pro pages in May/June 2021 only for it to be a false alarm). I personally believe it's leading to something, but it also could be a feedback loop of sites editing things because of speculation which was spurred by sites editing things and so on. Hype responsibly
 
Jannyish said:
I would ask why Microsoft would give up their exclusivity but seeing how they have done that with pretty much any of their games that can feasibly run on the Switch I guess that point is nullified.
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Right now they're using the game as a way to drive Game Pass (though the game is also on Steam, should be mentioned). Once that factor is no longer particularly a thing, and sales slow to a lull, I think for Microsoft they think a Switch release is a way to give it a second life. That's just smart business, in the same way Sony are currently giving their older exclusives a second life by releasing them on PC.

While Nintendo is certainly a competitor (so is Steam), it's not as much of a direct competition as against PlayStation, so exclusivity towards Nintendo is not quite as important, at least not in the long run.
 
Remember back in 2018 (?) when we thought Metroid Prime was gonna be at the game awards and a online retailer listing popped up with a Prime listing only for the reason to be “we are expecting it too?”

And Joker happened instead. What a fun time. Then prime 4 was shockingly delayed a few weeks later.
 
Aside from SV DLC I am curious what else Pokémon's gonna bring next month. Masters, Unite, and Café are ongoing I guess but I'm not sure what else they've got for spin-offs. PMD feels like a safe bet since RTDX was March 2020, but that's gonna depend on what Spike Chunsoft's been up to. Haruki Suzaki's group at Bandai-Namco only wrapped up New Snap recently so their next game is still a ways away. Detective Pikachu's supposedly been In The Works a while but who knows what the deal with that is. Every other spin-off series aside from those seems to be dormant, but maybe we get something new out of left field
 
Mpl90 said:
As I said on Discord as well, the biggest element that gives me pause even when acknowledging the info you just shared and the biggest reason behind a...call it "gut feeling" of mine is the airing time for the Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak Digital Event that will be streamed on February 1st (Febuary 2nd) for Japan.

Aaaaand I'll take the opportunity to expain in detail what I mean for everyone :p

To make it clear enough, here's a recap of the airing times for past Monster Hunter Rise Digital Events

January 2021 - 06:00 PST / 09:00 EST / 15:00 CET / 23:00 JT
March 2021 - 06:00 PST / 09:00 EST / 15:00 CET / 23:00 JT
April 2021 - 07:00 PT / 10:00 ET / 16:00 CEST / 23:00 JST
May 2021 - 07:00 PT / 10:00 ET / 16:00 CEST / 23:00 JST
March 2022 - 07:00 PT / 10:00 ET / 15:00 CET / 23:00 JT
August 2022 - 07:00 PT / 10:00 ET / 16:00 CEST / 23:00 JST
November 2022 - 06:00 PST / 09:00 EST / 15:00 CET / 23:00 JT

February 2023 - 15:00 PST / 18:00 EST / 24:00 CET / 08:00 JT

As you can see, each and every Digital Event has taken place in the same time window, or more specifically the same time for the Japanese audience, 23:00 JT. And yet, the upcoming Digital Event will be aired 9 hours later than usual.

Normally, such an important schedule change doesn't happen without a reason.
For example, if Capcom were informed of an event happening in the same timeslot as the one they usually take, they wouldn't have issues at changing the airing time for their own event. Maybe a mere one-hour-shift (thus 00:00 JT which would still be a good-enough airing time for the Japanese audience).
Now, we're also talking about the same company that aired the Dragon's Dogma Anniversary video (with the first announcement of DDII) at the same time as the Final Fantasy VII 25th Anniversary Stream, but still. It's also true that events taking that same time slot and that aren't MH Digital Events are very rare nowadays; only a potential Nintendo Direct in the Mini / Partner Showcase time-slot would fit the criteria...and given what happened in September, a general Direct airing at that time isn't totally impossible either. However, back in September 2022 there were specific circumstances (TGS Opening and the State of Play on the same day) that probably led Nintendo to the shift in the timeslot.

Going back to the MH Digital Events: they are aimed also at the Japanese audience, so all the time slots that aren't suitable for them should be excluded; this means we should be able to exclude the time slots from 08:00 PST / 11:00 EST / 17:00 CET / 01:00 JT to 13:00 PST / 16:00 EST / 22:00 CET /06:00 JT as potential airing times for a rescheduled MH Digital Event. This also means that the next potential timeslot would be 14:00 PST / 17:00 EST / 23:00 CET / 07:00 JT, which is also used by other companies such as Sony and Nintendo themselves for their own events. Still, the Digital Event is actually going to air at 08:00 JT. Again, going to such length for this kind of huge timeslot shift usually doesn't happen without reason. Be it a conflicting event or the fact that a specific part of the content you're going to show in your event will be showed earlier in another event happening before yours.

As stated earlier, the 07:00 JT time slot is the typical one for general Nintendo Direct; Sony has also more recently started to use it / a similar time slot for its State of Plays as well.
So, the main reason I can think of for a MH Digital Event to see such an important timeslot change is because a specific part of its content will be first unveiled in another event that happens right before it. We know that the Digital Event will show a returning Elder Dragon; that may be showed first elsewhere with a trailer that ends with "Don't forget to tune in at the Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak Digital Event to get more infos on this!". That or a potential other news that is still Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak related.

Given how Sunbreak will come out only in Spring on PlayStation and Xbox, the chances that the event that could feature early infos related to the MH Digital Event is a general Direct happening at 14:00 PST / 17:00 EST / 23:00 CET / 07:00 JT are higher. Not totally granted, but higher.

Mind you: as this is speculation, it could turn out to be outright wrong and in reality there is no reason behind the big timeslot change for the upcoming MH Digital Event. Or maybe a completely unrelated reason, although I'm not sure the free DLC campaign players can enter would be a reason for that.
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My cut down version of this:
  • There have been four instances of the Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak Digital Event, always at the same time of day:
    • Tuesday, March 15 at 14:00 UTC
    • Tuesday, May 10 at 14:00 UTC
    • Tuesday, August 9 at 14:00 UTC
    • Wednesday, November 16 at 14:00 UTC
  • The upcoming Sunbreak event is airing Wednesday, February 1 at 23:00 UTC (9 hours later)
  • 22:00 UTC on Wednesday was the air date of every February general since the Switch launched (2019, 2021, 2022) plus the March 2018 general
    • That would leave a short gap between the potential end of a February 1 Direct and the 22:45 UTC countdown for the Sunbreak event
    • A Monster Hunter presentation immediately following a Direct happened in September 2020, although that was announced during the Direct and not beforehand
The caveats @Mpl90 mentioned still apply and it could mean nothing. But it sure looks like they changed the Sunbreak event's time slot to create a perfect February Direct-shaped hole.
 
LiC said:
My cut down version of this:
  • There have been four instances of the Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak Digital Event, always at the same time of day:
    • Tuesday, March 15 at 14:00 UTC
    • Tuesday, May 10 at 14:00 UTC
    • Tuesday, August 9 at 14:00 UTC
    • Wednesday, November 16 at 14:00 UTC
  • The upcoming Sunbreak event is airing Wednesday, February 1 at 23:00 UTC (9 hours later)
  • 22:00 UTC on Wednesday was the air date of every February general since the Switch launched (2019, 2021, 2022) plus the March 2018 general
    • That would leave a short gap between the potential end of a February 1 Direct and the 22:45 UTC countdown for the Sunbreak event
    • A Monster Hunter presentation immediately following a Direct happened in September 2020, although that was announced during the Direct and not beforehand
The caveats @Mpl90 mentioned still apply and it could mean nothing. But it sure looks like they changed the Sunbreak event's time slot to create a perfect February Direct-shaped hole.
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Brofield said:
Oh man I zoned out and missed some excitement here, but our favourite French winkster gave some hints towards the date?

Kinda happy with more regularity. Honestly I wish Nintendo would give a week or more notice of an event, and speculation could rather be about the content of said Direct rather than trying to figure out the stupid date. It's why I like the E3 Direct most because it's a guaranteed first week of June event with like a month's advance notice.


Oh, be still my beating heart. I really don't know how to hope or expect for this game to leave the Gamecube, or even get an update for the REAL General Scales battle, but this has to be up there as a dream port/remake
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How about Drakor’s character and battle having actual dialogue, motivations, beliefs, and a boss fight in multiple phases and a much, MUCH better boss theme ?

And also, the fact that what Drakor says to Fox / Sabre is true and the heroes are basically doing everything wrong from the beginning.

Need some time travel thing so Microsoft purchase Rare much later, also motivate the Stemper bros not to ask their team to scrap 60% of the story & stuff from the N64 game.

 
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DecoReturns said:
Saw that leak Horizon multiplayer thing from Sony.

Dino multiplayer game sounds like it could be a hit. Capcom has something similar coming as well.
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That was cancelled, the actual Horizon co-op game just started development and won't release until 2027 to 2029.

We'll see what art style they choose in the end.
 
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I'm really excited!
Many famis theorizing the direct is next week, and many famis theorizing the direct is on the week after!
We are on the CLIMAX!
Monday this thread will move faster!
 
Koren Lesthe said:
How about Drakor’s character and battle having actual dialogue, motivations, beliefs, and a boss fight in multiple phases and a much, MUCH better boss theme ?

And also, the fact that what Drakor says to Fox / Sabre is true and the heroes are basically doing everything wrong from the beginning.

Need some time travel thing so Microsoft purchase Rare much later, also motivate the Stemper bros not to ask their team to scrap 60% of the story & stuff from the N64 game.

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Oh man, I actually didn't know that bit about Drakor.

Honestly I'd be down for a StarFox Adventures Zero kind of remaster if it means telling the story as they originally intended it instead of getting rushed, I'm really curious what it could have been.

RealUncleNintendo said:
So cancelled or postponed to a future date?
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Unfortunately neither; I think the last time it was mentioned, either talks or development had stalled and no new information had come forward. This was even before Halo Infinite so part of me wouldn't be surprised if that was all shelved while they put focus on trying to correct that trainwreck before and after launch.

I really wish Infinite could have lived up to expectations, and then maybe we would have heard more by now or even have that official announcement. Hell, just the thought of Halo on a Nintendo console could send shockwaves 18 years into the past and I want to be there to witness the chaos even if the franchise isn't what it used to be.
 
Honestly as much of a bummer as it would be, I kinda hope we would get confirmation MCC on Switch was cancelled outright. At least I could move on and place some faith in TimeSplitters living up to expectations whenever that gets an official trailer
 
Brofield said:
Honestly as much of a bummer as it would be, I kinda hope we would get confirmation MCC on Switch was cancelled outright. At least I could move on and place some faith in TimeSplitters living up to expectations whenever that gets an official trailer
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It would be nice to get closure on certain rumours containing games so we can move on.
 
One of these sites are gonna fuck up and launch a page for a game that hasn't been announced or will spoil a release date lol.
 
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