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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Tentacle-tropes said:
Honestly the only thing I’m expecting out of this holiday period is FE:Engage marketing within the next month or so. Anything else is probably gonna be around their Feb Direct & after.
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Well, we still have Mario Kart 8 DLC Wave 3 and the Golf update for Nintendo Sports between now and the end of the year. There is also the chance that Nintendo does something at the TGA's next month. And there is Goldeneye for NSO. That one is a wild card right now.
 
Yeah, I'm really not expecting any further announcements this year beyond the expected Twitter drops and maybe an FE Direct. Certainly nothing hardware-related (at least officially).
 
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Josh5890 said:
Well, we still have Mario Kart 8 DLC Wave 3 and the Golf update for Nintendo Sports between now and the end of the year. There is also the chance that Nintendo does something at the TGA's next month. And there is Goldeneye for NSO. That one is a wild card right now.
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Everything but FE can be announced through Twitter, even then that can be announced through Twitter as well.

I still don’t understand why anyone places any importance on the TGA’s for Nintendo. They don’t seem entirely interested outside of 3rd stuff & Smash dlc.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
Everything but FE can be announced through Twitter, even then that can be announced through Twitter as well.

I still don’t understand why anyone places any importance on the TGA’s for Nintendo. They don’t seem entirely interested outside of 3rd stuff & Smash dlc.
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Oh yea, all of those things I mentioned are 100% Twitter announcements.

As for TGAs, they are always a possibility. We could get a Zelda or Metroid trailer. Or just a commercial like last year. Anything is on the table.
 
Kevin said:
We know Nintendo is of course working on new hardware, I just remain unconvinced that 2023 is the year. Initially I thought it would absolutely launch with the new Zelda considering the time and scope of such a project but we are just over six months from the release of that game and there just isn't any rumors or signs of new hardware approaching at all. Complete radio silence on everything. I maintain that if there is no new hardware around the time Tears of the Kingdom releases then the hardware really is years out still. I do NOT see Nintendo releasing new hardware just months after Tears of the Kindom. That game would absolutely be a crossgen title if hardware is coming in 2023 at all.

Everyone is different, I don't play my Switch that much anymore. I only ever play TV play and the graphics and performance are just to bad anymore so I basically moved on. I'll play Zelda but beyond that I'm not really playing Nintendo games all that much anymore which is a huge shame because I love the games but the poor resolution and framerate issues and lack of evolution in graphics is really dampening my overall experience when I also have a PS5 and XSX. Switch is a terrible experience on a 65' OLED tv. At least in my personal experience. My friend also moved onto Steam Deck and the other consoles. Nintendo risks losing a lot of fans in the coming year or two or however long it takes them to actually release new hardware. I think a lot of people are ready to move on but if there isn't another product to move onto then I think they will switch platforms.

I guess I personally felt like 2023 was the latest you could go before releasing new hardware before people just give up but I guess that's my own projection. At the end of the day, I don't know if fans will start moving on in large numbers or not. Time and sales will tell. After nearly five years of talking about a Switch Pro I have grown very weary and very tired and I kind of just given up hope. I honestly feel broken on this subject because I wanted new hardware a lot more then I probably should have (it's a toy after all at the end of the day) but damn did I want it. At some point though you got to move on. Or I do at any rate. Tired.
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If 2005 or 2016 is anything to go by, Nintendo fans will NOT move on. Everyone was "done" with Nintendo in those years for the Gamecube and Wii U respectively based on discussion on NeoGaf/Reddit, due to the very abysmal game line-ups and those systems being disliked by many people by their final years, plus the systems were selling record low numbers at that point. Then by the time the Wii and Switch were announced and released, well, judging by how much they sold, it's obvious everyone came crawling back in bigger numbers than ever before.

In other words, Nintendo can keep pushing the Switch 1 till 2026 for all they care and we'll all "claim" we're done, but the instant they announce Switch 2 for release in 2027 with a launch day 4k Zelda with raytracing and a 4k 3D Mario and (hopefully) Metroid Prime 5, we will make the announcement thread reach 500 pages one day after the announcement stream, and you and maybe I will both be there on page 1 of that thread. No Nintendo fan is leaving lmao
 
Josh5890 said:
Oh yea, all of those things I mentioned are 100% Twitter announcements.

As for TGAs, they are always a possibility. We could get a Zelda or Metroid trailer. Or just a commercial like last year. Anything is on the table.
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There’s always a possibility but I’ll believe it when I see it considering how Nintendo has treated the TGA’s over the last couple of years in terms of importance.
 
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Josh5890 said:
Oh yea, all of those things I mentioned are 100% Twitter announcements.

As for TGAs, they are always a possibility. We could get a Zelda or Metroid trailer. Or just a commercial like last year. Anything is on the table.
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I'm thinking we will get our first full size Zelda trailer at a Nintendo Direct in February or Mach with a Zelda Direct or Treehouse blowout in April.

highgar said:
If 2005 or 2016 is anything to go by, Nintendo fans will NOT move on. Everyone was "done" with Nintendo in those years for the Gamecube and Wii U respectively based on discussion on NeoGaf/Reddit, due to the very abysmal game line-ups and those systems being disliked by many people by their final years, plus the systems were selling record low numbers at that point. Then by the time the Wii and Switch were announced and released, well, judging by how much they sold, it's obvious everyone came crawling back in bigger numbers than ever before.

In other words, Nintendo can keep pushing the Switch 1 till 2026 for all they care and we'll all "claim" we're done, but the instant they announce Switch 2 for release in 2027 with a launch day 4k Zelda with raytracing and a 4k 3D Mario and (hopefully) Metroid Prime 5, we will make the announcement thread reach 500 pages one day after the announcement stream, and you and maybe I will both be there on page 1 of that thread. No Nintendo fan is leaving lmao
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Oh absolutely I would return. I meant that I am playing less Switch these days and more games on other systems these days and that trend I feel will continue. People always come back if a good product becomes available but I do feel that people are starting to lose interest in Switch. I mean I feel like half of my Nintendo YouTube channels I watch are now talking and hyping the Steam Deck these days. Even IGN's NVC podcast was talking about how great Steam Deck is. People want something new from Nintendo and I think they are starting to gravitate towards other platforms now but of course they and all of us will gladly come back someday when Nintendo has something more modern to offer us.
 
Kevin said:
I'm thinking we will get our first full size Zelda trailer at a Nintendo Direct in February or Mach with a Zelda Direct or Treehouse blowout in April.



Oh absolutely I would return. I meant that I am playing less Switch these days and more games on other systems these days and that trend I feel will continue. People always come back if a good product becomes available but I do feel that people are starting to lose interest in Switch. I mean I feel like half of my Nintendo YouTube channels I watch are now talking and hyping the Steam Deck these days. Even IGN's NVC podcast was talking about how great Steam Deck is. People want something new from Nintendo and I think they are starting to gravitate towards other platforms now but of course they and all of us will gladly come back someday when Nintendo has something more modern to offer us.
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Switch will be entering its 7th year in March. If you have been in since year 1, losing interest is natural. All platforms eventually see decline. I don't think you're really point out anything out of the ordinary. Nintenod isn't dumb. They wont ride out the switch for much longer. At worse we will be at 2024 Q1 for a new set of hardware and even that seems too far out.

The PS4 and Xbox One had the same curve. 7ish years before being replaced. Software is going to decline this fiscal year and is only going down from here. A replacement is coming. But enthusiast players and their interest isn't what determines platfor interest.
 
Raccoon said:
we are currently experiencing the metroid prime trilogyification of the new switch
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Speaking of Prime... 👀

If Super Switch doesn't launch with TotK, I still wouldn't rule 2023 out. I could see it launching in the holiday window alongside the new Metroid Prime overhaul. You'd think that'd be a hell of a hyped-up game for the core audience who want a higher-performing system.

Don't get me wrong, my money is still on it launching with Zelda, I'm just saying if it doesn't I won't automatically assume it's 2024 or later. Zelda is huge, it doesn't necessarily need new hardware to help sell it. Nintendo might think Super Switch would be better utilized elevating a game that would need the help (like Metroid).

Hell, using it as a Drake showcase might be why they reportedly went from doing a simple remaster of the trilogy to doing an involved graphical overhaul of just the first game.

Just spitballing optimistically here. Just saying if Zelda comes and goes with no hardware, the 2023 dream isn't necessarily over.
 
chocolate_supra said:
Don't get me wrong, my money is still on it launching with Zelda, I'm just saying if it doesn't I won't automatically assume it's 2024 or later. Zelda is huge, it doesn't necessarily need new hardware to help sell it. Nintendo might think Super Switch would be better utilized elevating a game that would need the help (like Metroid).

Hell, using it as a Drake showcase might be why they reportedly went from doing a simple remaster of the trilogy to doing an involved graphical overhaul of just the first game.
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The „new“ Switch will have a small installed base, it will not support the sales of a game. It‘s more the other way around, people need to see games showing the „new“ hardware is worth adopting.
 
Both names exist, it’s not hard to see why they would be confused. It’s not like Kopite is all knowing, they know something but this would be even more kept secret than the desktop GPU cards. It’s a special customer after all.

Hell, Kopite only has some limited info even on the HPC/DC cards
 
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If we have another year of the current Switch surely sales will just decline more? Unless they introduce a big price drop surely everyone who wants one will have one by now. Only sales they could get would be people still on launch units that are dying and need to get a new one?
 
ITSMILNER said:
If we have another year of the current Switch surely sales will just decline more? Unless they introduce a big price drop surely everyone who wants one will have one by now. Only sales they could get would be people still on launch units that are dying and need to get a new one?
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Probably but it's not like sales are bad currently. And there's always some amount of new people entering the market.
 
Speaking of the backplate rumors, here is the latest post from factory uncle:
Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
It’s a conversation between factory uncle and another user. Here is the original conversation.
-新机明年真的能出吗，生产线的消息感觉没爆出多少来啊
-明年还是很乐观的
067.png

不过效率这玩意不好说，得过了今年商战，明年再看了
067.png

And here is my personal translation:
Another user: Can the new model really come out next year? There is too less information from the production line.
Factory uncle: It’s still optimistic for expecting a next year launch. But the production efficiency is hard to say. Anyways, we should wait for the holiday season passing and the next year coming.

I checked his posting history and found he claimed the next year launch multiple times since September. So I assume the test production is over and the factory is waiting for the mass production.
 
This discussion about the game card technologies got me thinking if Nintendo will also launch an all-digital version of its console in the case they go with a fast option for the cartridges but hypothetically cannot quite keep their price down.

Would you buy such a device if the retail games are 10$ more expensive than the current ones?
 
Factory uncle claimed the test production of new backplate many times in the first half of 2022, and the test production ended in the summer. There is a regular time period between the end of test production and the start of the mass production. And it’s the reason why he is confident for a 2023 launch, I assumed.
 
Kenka said:
This discussion about the game card technologies got me thinking if Nintendo will also launch an all-digital version of its console in the case they go with a fast option for the cartridges but hypothetically cannot quite keep their price down.

Would you buy such a device if the retail games are 10$ more expensive than the current ones?
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It would just push me to wait longer for games, and take a sale opportunity more seriously with their games.

Normally, I don’t pay 60 for Nintendo games as I get them for 10 dollars off, so I like that advantage. But there’s the occasional 60 dollar since I can’t get the discount.

Actually thinking back, it’s less normal for me to get 50 and more normal for my to pay 60 than I thought, however most of the time I’ve paid 50, not 60.
 
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Kenka said:
This discussion about the game card technologies got me thinking if Nintendo will also launch an all-digital version of its console in the case they go with a fast option for the cartridges but hypothetically cannot quite keep their price down.

Would you buy such a device if the retail games are 10$ more expensive than the current ones?
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I'd buy an all-digital Switch if I didn't already have a few physical games, I stopped buying physical games in 2018.
 
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If Nintendo gives the ability to turn physical games into digital games, I’d just switch to digital. It would be convenient.

Edit: wait, for most of the library I’d be digital. Some I’d be physical.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
If Nintendo gives the ability to turn physical games into digital games, I’d just switch to digital. It would be convenient.

Edit: wait, for most of the library I’d be digital. Some I’d be physical.
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I had started buying up digital versions of my physical library, but only if they had deep discounts. Unfortunately, Nintendo's own games are not going to hit such lows. Mainly doing that because of the convenience of not swapping cards.
 
Raccoon said:
all of these but the backplate could be related to something else
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As far as I am concerned they were describing the OLED model the whole time.
The description of the insides was blatantly the OLED model, which they would have said if they were familiar with it, but they talked as if it was something new. This means the description of the back in comparison to the 'current model' was comparing it to the 2017 backplate, not the 2021 one.

It's probably not safe to assume that every factory was assembling OLED models at launch either, given them accounting for less than 50% of shipments. The launch day videos I saw were units from Vietnam.
 
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Stinky Horse said:
As far as I am concerned they were describing the OLED model the whole time.
The description of the insides was blatantly the OLED model, which they would have said if they were familiar with it, but they talked as if it was something new. This means the description of the back in comparison to the 'current model' was comparing it to the 2017 backplate, not the 2021 one.

It's probably not safe to assume that every factory was assembling OLED models at launch either, given them accounting for less than 50% of shipments. The launch day videos I saw were units from Vietnam.
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Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

nate confirms that something is happening on the 13th!?
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Not sure how you’d come to the conclusion that this was just looking at OLED vs V2 when they mention things like the piece being slightly wider, and having a cutout. The OLED kickstand is massive compared to V2, and has no notable cutouts outside of the tiny gap for guiding it into the dock.

They were also testing new color ways, and the only new devices we’ve seen this year are Splatoon 3 and Scarlet Violet, both OLED no?
 
karmitt said:
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Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

nate confirms that something is happening on the 13th!?
famiboards.com famiboards.com

Not sure how you’d come to the conclusion that this was just looking at OLED vs V2 when they mention things like the piece being slightly wider, and having a cutout. The OLED kickstand is massive compared to V2, and has no notable cutouts outside of the tiny gap for guiding it into the dock.

They were also testing new color ways, and the only new devices we’ve seen this year are Splatoon 3 and Scarlet Violet, both OLED no?
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The oled back is 3mm wider than the original, and also something like 10mm deeper with it joining all the way to the flat front panel. I really don't see anything that can't just be an interpretation of that.
The colours were tested 6 months ago or something so it's irrelevant unless you think oled will never receive new colours after last Friday.

Edit:
And if you don't interpret 'cut out' as either a recessed area or hinge holes, it implies opening the kickstand would expose the motherboard/internals, which doesn't sound right to me.
As far as I can tell, the stand being the thing to have a cut out is just fwd-bwd's interpretation.
 
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Paxie said:
If TotK really is just gonna launch with an OLED, then imo Nintendo is going to be forced to release Drake within the year or seriously risk their hardware division. Striking while the iron was ice cold was one of the biggest problems of the Wii -> Wii U transition, and enthusiast spaces are getting more and more exhausted with the 2017 Switch
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I’m starting to think Nintendo wants to milk the Oled for as long as possible next year with Zelda, Pikmin and Pokémon. So I honestly don’t see Drake coming out until early 2024
 
Nintendo wants Drake to have an install base big enough to be able to justify bigger first party exclusives by late 24/early 25 - they are not gonna wait until the last possible moment before they introduce this upgrade to the Switch.

I still expect Drake to be available by the time TotK releases.

Next year us gonna be massive for the competition for many reasons, i cant see Nintendo going into 2023 without a plan to make sure that their customers dont upgrade within the Switch eco system.

Expecting an expensive device, but its not gonna be a PSVR 2.
 
Stinky Horse said:
To me it looks like the people who believe the date sound more confident than the person who gave them the date.
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What date? I only know of a timeframe being in talk which was first half of 2023. Dunno what exactly doesn't sound viable in a timeframe that spans up to 8 months from now.
 
kvetcha said:
Why would the leaker bother describing an OLED backplate as a new part when the OLED has been on the market over a year?
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Same reason they did the same for the inside. Because it was new to them. And if it was new to them (giving details like the battery being moved away from the edge) why would you trust them to have a good insight on unreleased models?
 
I think about the release timing of Pokemon.
It is necessary to sell new hardware a few years before the main series of Pokemon release out.

3DS -> Switch
2017 Switch released, but Pokemon released "USUM" on 3DS
2018 Pokemon released on Switch for the first time (remake).
2019 Switch Lite released, Pokemon main series released on Switch for the first time.

Pokemon "SV" comes on Switch this year, so I think this kind of next story.
2023 Pokemon SV DLC release
2024 Pokemon remake release
2025 Pokemon main series release on New Switch
or
2026 Pokemon 30th anniversary, main series release on New Switch

If the main series will release in 2025, New Switch must be released by 2023, or if release in 2026, must be released by 2024.
I think the next main series will not release on OG Switch, because it's performance of Pokemon SV is marginal.
 
I wonder if that post from Imran Khan could be some kind of troll at this point, especially if he knows something?
Also if a Drake Zelda edition model is planned with the launch of the game (considering the standard Drake release happens sometime before), and it has an OLED model which seems obvious, that makes his post valid whatever happens.

I don't think we should overthink this, unless I missed some important details.
 
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If it feels like a hint, it's not worth considering. Limiting yourself to hard news/rumors will make things a lot easier as you're not trying to rosetta stone someone's post
 
Given the rising amount of PS5 units hitting the stores, i'd argue that shortage is pretty much over, or has normalized enough for a somewhat normal production.
 
Software sells Hardware

Nintendo will launch their next hardware when the software they think will motivate people to move from 1 Switch to another is ready.

Zelda totk is the best candidate. They did it with first Switch and it was successful.

I believe in Emily words that Nintendo probably wants shortages to be almost over so they can distribute easily ~20 millions of next hardware in its 4 quarters so there can be a very smooth transition.

And remember, OLED Switch was released with Dread whom we knew its release date at E3, ~1 month before the hardware announcement. So knowing or not exactly when next Zelda arrives doesn’t correlate with a potential next hardware release.
 
We’re reaching saturation point with the Switch at this point. I’m sure a ton of Nintendo devs are begging for an upgrade
 
Bonejack said:
Given the rising amount of PS5 units hitting the stores, i'd argue that shortage is pretty much over, or has normalized enough for a somewhat normal production.
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Sony has forecast a big rise (which is yet to show up in their shipments results, their figures are just above flat from last year). Nintendo is doing and saying the opposite and haven't done an overall price hike so far.
Excluding Japan, Sony's WW shipments need to be roughly the same as Nintendo's this FY.
 
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ReddDreadtheLead said:
The most interesting element about DLSS is that if they use it in portable mode, I do not expect something like ultra performance mode or performance mode to really be a common use of the feature. I expect something like quality to ultra quality mode, and in the most extreme cases.
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They just about have to use it in portable mode. DLSS isn't just an upscale, it also does AA, and requiring games to swap their AA implementation when going handheld mode is a bastard for a number of reasons.

Technically, I don't expect DLSS in handheld mode, but DLAA. I can't remember if this was in my post, like I said, it was eaten and hurriedly rewritten, but the tensor cores are obviously going to be slower in handheld mode. If you preserve the performance per-pixel scaling factor, then DLAA should take an identical frame time to your upscale in docked mode.
 
oldpuck said:
They just about have to use it in portable mode. DLSS isn't just an upscale, it also does AA, and requiring games to swap their AA implementation when going handheld mode is a bastard for a number of reasons.

Technically, I don't expect DLSS in handheld mode, but DLAA. I can't remember if this was in my post, like I said, it was eaten and hurriedly rewritten, but the tensor cores are obviously going to be slower in handheld mode. If you preserve the performance per-pixel scaling factor, then DLAA should take an identical frame time to your upscale in docked mode.
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You could potentially be rendering to 720p in both modes, which could be a lot faster in the TV mode, so while DLAA might take the same time, you would have much less time available.
Unless I am misunderstanding what you mean by performance per pixel.
 
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