I love the doomposting in this topic. This Direct thread is the main reason I joined Fami. I love waking up every morning reading so many pages of it and refreshing during the day. June 29th is gonna be so bittersweet.
Anyways, I will make one reasonable post and after that I will fan the flames and the chaos like my brethren here.
Nate has incomplete information. Imagine you were in his shoes. You don't know the status of every project in the Nintendo pipeline and you don't know everything that is ready to be presented. Not much has leaked about the June Direct contents which I think is a good thing. It just makes more sense to say "a" Direct is coming instead of specifying. If you're wrong you get so much hate on Twitter and other places.
Secondly, a Partner's Direct seems the most unlikely. There has to be some first party games scheduled for release in the second half of the year and for early 2023. September Direct wouldn't work to showcase those coming in August - October. It would be too late.
Thus, Mini and General are most likely. But what is exactly wrong with a Mini? Isn't the difference just duration? Trim all the fluff. Zelda, Metroid, Bayonetta, Fire Emblem, Pikmin 4, 3D DK, new Mario project, 3rd party stuff like Persona, etc. all could theoretically be shown and teased in a Mini. Maybe not all of them due to time but some surely.
Ok no more reason.
Chaos will now reign