Pre-Release Metroid Prime 4: Pre-Release Discussion Thread

[Ryuusagi no hoshi]

Holy copium!.
But then again it's Metroid fans that we are talking about so no surprise i guess.

Accept the reality that it's more probable that MP4 IS a Switch game and it doesn't matter at all in the Switch successor side of things.
Enjoy what is given to you Metroid fans buy the game and maybe hope that it gets a boots patch on the next console that is it, no shame on being niche.

 

[Joe]

The reason I'm sceptical of these rumours is the timings don't add up. Nintendo pushing to release it this year solely on Switch 1 would have meant, if the plan was to release Switch 2 between September - November, the latest they realistically could have released the game without it getting swept up in Switch 2 marketing would have been July. And if Nintendo's initial plan all along was to make it a summer game like TTYD remastered, then surely they'd have revealed it by now?

Prime 4 has been a huge investment from Nintendo, with two different teams and 7 odd years of development costs. They're going to want to make their money back, and the best way to do so is get it on the new console and aim for those BOTW-esque evergreen sales. As I've said before, chucking it out at the end of the Switch 1's life doesn't really do anyone any favours. It doesn't push consoles, it won't sell more than 2-3 million, it doesn't grow the Metroid brand, and you're taking away an anticipated release from the new console's launch lineup. And if rumours are to be believed, a lack of launch games is the reason Switch 2 got delayed to 2025, making a decision to release Prime 4 this year even more confusing.

I have no doubt the original plan was to launch it this year, but logically speaking if Switch 2 has been delayed, then you have to imagine Prime 4 has been too.

If the Switch 2 is backwards compatible, then it releasing on Switch 1 wouldn't make much of a difference if they had said in their marketing that you can play it on the new hardware as well. In fact, that would have benefitted the Switch 2 by making its backwards compatibility features (and possible enhancements of compatible games) known and visible to the public.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Holy copium!.
But then again it's Metroid fans that we are talking about so no surprise i guess.

Accept the reality that it's more probable that MP4 IS a Switch game and it doesn't matter at all in the Switch successor side of things.
Enjoy what is given to you Metroid fans buy the game and maybe hope that it gets a boots patch on the next console that is it, no shame on being niche.

I don’t get these fans. It’s going to be the best selling Metroid game of all time anyways. Nintendo will green light more games.

 

[Danny]

I think you're way overestimating how big Metroid is. Fire Emblem is the more popular franchise, so if anything that would get delayed instead.

There's also the fact that Metroid doesnt sell well in Japan, the home of Nintendo and one of the biggest customer bases.

This is a weird argument, there is always possibilities for series to grow in popularity.

There is no chance that Metroid Prime won't be a pretty radical departure from other prime titles to try to make the franchise more popular, both WW and in Japan. Not saying that Nintendo/Retro will succeed in doing that but its clearly possible. This game could easily sell over 5 million if Nintendo make some easy changes to the classic Metroid prime formula. Make it a semi open world with huge open areas to explore and you easily make the franchise more appealing to non Metroid fans by that fact alone for example.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Holy copium!.
But then again it's Metroid fans that we are talking about so no surprise i guess.

Accept the reality that it's more probable that MP4 IS a Switch game and it doesn't matter at all in the Switch successor side of things.
Enjoy what is given to you Metroid fans buy the game and maybe hope that it gets a boots patch on the next console that is it, no shame on being niche.

We have no idea what this game is like! How are we making these statements?

 

[Jahranimo]

If Prime 4 is coming out this year for this Switch, then I'll be more than happy to play it on there. I do still think the game will also be on Switch 2 with enhancements though.

 

[Magic-Man]

We have no information on the game whatsoever other than it being probably really big budget

How are we judging sales potential here. This game might be a Doom Eternal clone or have online co-op or be structured like God of War 2018 or even be a fucking Soulslike, we have nothing here.

Like, let's compare this to another long awaited game that has had zero officially released information: Dragon Age Dreadwolf. If we had no leaks, we would probably expect Dreadwolf to be like the prior games in the series.

But leaks have shown that Dreadwolf has little to nothing to do with the rest of the series gameplay wise and is a God of War 2018 clone.

A wise Magic-Man once said:

"If Metroid Prime 4 doesn't play like Metroid Prime, they shouldn't call it a Metroid Prime game"

Seriously, a Metroid Prime game that isn't like the previous games would piss off the fanbase. Nintendo already tried to do something similar with Federation Force and it bombed.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

A wise Magic-Man once said:

"If Metroid Prime 4 doesn't play like Metroid Prime, they shouldn't call it a Metroid Prime game"

Seriously, a Metroid Prime game that isn't like the previous games would piss off the fanbase. Nintendo already tried to do something similar with Federation Force and it bombed.

Prime 3 was already a massive departure from Prime 2, there are basically only two "true" Metroid Prime games in the series and the last one of those released 20 years ago.

I'm also pretty certain Metroid Prime 4 will end up ditching the "Prime 4" part of the title for something else.

Again, Dragon Age Dreadwolf is just a God of War 2018 clone (and God of War 2018 itself has nothing whatsoever in common with prior God of War games)

 

[Christo750]

The reason I'm sceptical of these rumours is the timings don't add up. Nintendo pushing to release it this year solely on Switch 1 would have meant, if the plan was to release Switch 2 between September - November, the latest they realistically could have released the game without it getting swept up in Switch 2 marketing would have been July. And if Nintendo's initial plan all along was to make it a summer game like TTYD remastered, then surely they'd have revealed it by now?

Prime 4 has been a huge investment from Nintendo, with two different teams and 7 odd years of development costs. They're going to want to make their money back, and the best way to do so is get it on the new console and aim for those BOTW-esque evergreen sales. As I've said before, chucking it out at the end of the Switch 1's life doesn't really do anyone any favours. It doesn't push consoles, it won't sell more than 2-3 million, it doesn't grow the Metroid brand, and you're taking away an anticipated release from the new console's launch lineup. And if rumours are to be believed, a lack of launch games is the reason Switch 2 got delayed to 2025, making a decision to release Prime 4 this year even more confusing.

I have no doubt the original plan was to launch it this year, but logically speaking if Switch 2 has been delayed, then you have to imagine Prime 4 has been too.

If the plan is to launch it on Switch 2, they will do that anyway. Switch 1 has an incredible active player base and there is already an audience for Metroid on it. Switch 1 is the best place to launch it to make their money back, release a Switch 2 upgrade patch (make it a $10 upgrade if you want, who cares) when the system comes out.

 

[Magic-Man]

Prime 3 was already a massive departure from Prime 2, there are basically only two "true" Metroid Prime games in the series and the last one of those released 20 years ago.

I'm also pretty certain Metroid Prime 4 will end up ditching the "Prime 4" part of the title for something else.

Again, Dragon Age Dreadwolf is just a God of War 2018 clone (and God of War 2018 itself has nothing whatsoever in common with prior God of War games)

Prime 3 didn't sell a ton of copies, and isn't remembered fondly compared to the other two entries.

You're looking at two games from other companies. Nintendo is different. They brought back 2D Metroid and it was extremely similar to the previous entries.

 

[Joe]

Good gracious I just want this game to be shown soon. I can't deal with many more months of this uncertainty.

 

[Ryuusagi no hoshi]

I don’t get these fans. It’s going to be the best selling Metroid game of all time anyways. Nintendo will green light more games.

Yeah probably, i hope anyways cus if not then sheesh poor Metroid fans take another L boys.

We have no idea what this game is like! How are we making these statements?

Because precedent?, statistics?.
Time and time again fans say that Metroid matters, that it's gonna be the big one for sure, that Metriod would sell millions.
Where's Dread?. 3 millions?.
I'll be happy with that after all this time.
Be happy if it sells 3 or 4 and hopefully 5 that would be fantastic.
But if it can't do that with 100+ million out there then well there you go one more to the bag.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Prime 3 didn't sell a ton of copies, and isn't remembered fondly compared to the other two entries.

You're looking at two games from other companies. Nintendo is different. They brought back 2D Metroid and it was extremely similar to the previous entries.

The thing is that Prime 1 did very well and then Prime 2 flopped and Tanabe and Sakamoto have been trying to figure out how to make the 3D series popular ever since (with no success obviously). Each game since Prime 2 has been a massive departure from Prime 2 and the prior one.

I don't know if Nintendo was like "let's go back to the Prime 2 style but just spend 6 years of development on it."

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Yeah probably, i hope anyways cus if not then sheesh poor Metroid fans take another L boys.

Because precedent?, statistics?.
Time and time again fans say that Metroid matters, that it's gonna be the big one for sure, that Metriod would sell millions.
Where's Dread?. 3 millions?.
I'll be happy with that after all this time.
Be happy if it sells 3 or 4 and hopefully 5 that would be fantastic.
But if it can't do that with 100+ million out there then well there you go one more to the bag.

The first four Drakengard games were massive failures and the 5th Drakengard game (Nier Automata) has outsold Final Fantasy 7 Remake.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Prime 2 flopped on a low user base GameCube. Nintendo sequels on the same system always do worse. And Prime was low selling to begin with…..

 

[lattjeful]

The first four Drakengard games were massive failures and the 5th Drakengard game (Nier Automata) has outsold Final Fantasy 7 Remake.

I don't think the situations are comparable. I love Drakengard, but those games are clunky at best and bad at worst. Automata was the natural progression of where the franchise was going + some luck. It refined a lot of what Replicant/Gestalt did, and benefit from strong word of mouth due to the game's story, 2B's... "assets" helping with marketing the game, having bigger names with pedigree like Square Enix and Platinum Games tied to it, and being a good game unlike its predecessors. One can also argue that it doesn't have the baggage it otherwise would've been saddled with had the game been titled "Drakengard 5." With a few exceptions, one thing Metroid has consistently been is good. It doesn't quite have that room to grow into being The One Where Everything Finally Comes Together like Automata did for DrakenNieR.

I don't think it's totally out of the question for Prime 4 to blow up like Automata did, but it's unlikely. A first person 3D Metroidvania is a niche within a niche. They can make it a big budget graphical showcase, expand the story presentation (somewhat along the lines of how Sekiro expanded on Dark Souls' style of cryptic story telling with actual cutscenes and present, main characters would work), and update the shooting but it'll still be what it is at the end of the day: Metroid Prime.

 

[Goodtwin]

"If Metroid Prime 4 doesn't play like Metroid Prime, they shouldn't call it a Metroid Prime game"

Good chance this is why the Bamco build was canceled. I'm guessing Nintendo looked at the work in progress and thought to themselves, this is not a Metroid Prime game. So I do think Nintendo is looking to stick close to the winning formula that Prime established. Not every IP that Nintendo puts out there is going to be a massive seller. Nintendo has funded two Bayonetta games knowing the sales ceiling was low by their standards, but its a game that helps broaden the appeal of the platform. Metroid is similar. They know its sales ceiling is low compared to Mario, Zelda, Splatoon and even Kirby, but its an IP that sits in stark contrast to those titles, appealing to a different audience than many of their titles really cater to.

Retro started Prime 4 development back in 2019/2020, the bulk of its development has been solely on Switch. If we are to assume that Retro got dev kits shortly after T239 was taped out, then they got them late 2022 or early 2023. At this point, development was firmly rooted to Switch. The overall design ethos of the game would have always centered around the limitations of Switch. The perception that Prime 4's development has seen any dramatic shift towards targeting SNG is probably misguided, but times will tell.

I still think Prime 2 and 3 are coming to Switch. As far as the concerns go with adapting Prime 3 to Switch, Im failing to see how the gyro and motion controls along with DA controls cant work and work rather well. Some things could also just be moved to action prompts, press A to insert energy cell. Prime 3 still revolved around a lock on system for shooting, so instead of using the pointer controls while locked on you now use DA controls. When ever they reveal Prime 4, I expect them to go ahead and shadow drop Prime 2&3 HD as a package similar to Pikmin 1+2.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I don't know if it's a lock this is much more of a Metroidvania than like Jedi Survivor (which is on pace to sell 15m copies)... Or a lock to be first-person (though both are fairly likely).

It's just really like... It's been like three years of trying to judge the sales potential of a game with literally no information about it.

It's been in development a while at Retro Studios and they've received a lot of art outsourcing help....... That's literally all we know.

 

[lattjeful]

I don't know if it's a lock this is much more of a Metroidvania than like Jedi Survivor (which is on pace to sell 15m copies)... Or a lock to be first-person (though both are fairly likely).

It's just really like... It's been like three years of trying to judge the sales potential of a game with literally no information about it.

It's been in development a while at Retro Studios and they've received a lot of art outsourcing help....... That's literally all we know.

I'd say first person because it's part of the identity. I also think it'd be weird as hell. Even if they expand the room sizes like we all expect them to, I think having to do combat and exploration in the types of rooms that Metroid Prime tend to have (I'm thinking kinda jammed together and almost claustrophobic) in third person would feel clunky. Like if Dark Souls had a pea shooter.

 

[Danny]

I don't know if it's a lock this is much more of a Metroidvania than like Jedi Survivor (which is on pace to sell 15m copies)... Or a lock to be first-person (though both are fairly likely).

It's just really like... It's been like three years of trying to judge the sales potential of a game with literally no information about it.

It's been in development a while at Retro Studios and they've received a lot of art outsourcing help....... That's literally all we know.

I agree, most people seem to think Prime 4 will be like Prime 1 with better graphics and design, we have no idea what kind of changes the game will make from previous entries. Compare Breath of the Wild to Skyward Sword to see how much changes can happen in a franchise from one game to the next. Metroid Prime 4 is being made with a very different set of devs compared to when the original trilogy was made.

 

[Shoe]

I still think Prime 2 and 3 are coming to Switch. As far as the concerns go with adapting Prime 3 to Switch, Im failing to see how the gyro and motion controls along with DA controls cant work and work rather well. Some things could also just be moved to action prompts, press A to insert energy cell. Prime 3 still revolved around a lock on system for shooting, so instead of using the pointer controls while locked on you now use DA controls. When ever they reveal Prime 4, I expect them to go ahead and shadow drop Prime 2&3 HD as a package similar to Pikmin 1+2.

Yeah, I really don’t think dual analog in Prime 3 would be much issue. Certainly nowhere near as complex as Skyward Sword. These are the extent of the motion controls:

• Spring Ball - already included in Prime 1 Remastered
• Grapple Lasso - can make into a button (MP1R had redundant and unused buttons)
• Changing visors - make it the same as MP1R
• Interfacing with the ship - easily done with dual analog
• Context sensitive switches (pull-twist-push / pumping / energy cells) - can simply be a button prompt like the hand scanners
• Aiming minigames like the ziplines or the welding - this might be the trickiest, but replacing more lenient enemies in the former with dual analog and autocompleting the latter would be reasonable, I think
• Shaking off enemies - wiggle stick or put on same button as Grapple Lasso
• Aiming - Prime 3 has some enemies that:
1. Can’t be locked onto
2. Some that shake your lock
3. Bosses that have weak points that the player must aim at while the lock focuses on the boss itself (like Berserker Lord, Mogenar, etc.)
The first two can easily be made like MP1R by simply making the lock-on more “sticky”, and the third could have multiple lock on points for weak spots (like Omega Pirate in Prime 1).

This all seems pretty straightforward and would still keep the identity of Prime 3. But time will tell.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Okay, but like, the rail shooting and welding minigames in Prime 3 take up way too much time as is and would go from "this sucks" to "this is so fucking bad, holy shit" if you just adapted the game to dual analog. You need to cut both minigames and replace them with something else to keep the pacing consistent.

 

[oldpuck]

Metroid fans predict that the 10th game in the series will finally be the one that breaks out, betting on 10 million sales.

Nintendo releases Metroid Prime 4 as the ding-dang holiday title on the best selling console of all time.

Prime 4 sells 4 million copies, the best selling Metroid game of all time.

Metroid fans are heartbroken, then enraged. Why does Nintendo always do this to Metroid?! Release it on a dying system? What were they thinking?

@mazi knows what they must do. They step into the quantum leap accelerator... and vanish.

Two years of their lives, spent in the past, using their knowledge of the future to infiltrate Retro studios, they convince Nintendo to make Prime 4 a launch title for Switch 2. Having set right what once went wrong, Mazi leaps into the future.

4 million in sales.

"It just looks like a Switch game? Why did they release it on new hardware without an install base. Why does Nintendo keep doing this to Metroid?"

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more. Deeper into the past, Mazi spends a decade learning Japanese before arriving in 60s japan to become mentor to a young Shigeru Miyamoto. "Trust not Bamco with the Bounty Hunter" becomes Mazi's dying words. Miyamoto doesn't understand, assuming it's delirium.

60 years later, Miyamoto will remember their mentor, and abruptly decide that Prime 4 can't be trusted to Bandai Namco, and sends it directly to Retro, two years earlier. Mazi returns to their body in the altered present, where without the reboot delay, Prime 4 releases 2 years earlier. The Switch is at its peak, as is Metroid fandom, with the release of Dread the year before.

4 million in sales.

"Why does Nintendo do this? Everyone at Retro who made the first games are gone, they should have given it to another studio, make it fresh. They just hate Metroid. They hate Samus."

Now Mazi knows the truth. Travelling back one last time, Mazi must kill every alternate version of themselves in order to restore the timeline. They return to 2021, as soon as the Prime 4 thread is opened on famiboards. They post the very first reply.

2023 or 2024. it'll be switch's swan song.

 

[Joe]

I would personally love a version of Prime 3 that removed the non-combat-related motion control segments (interacting with interfaces, moving switches) because it always came across to me as needless busywork to justify the system it was on. It dates the game quite a bit, since the actual aiming with the motion controls is fantastic and we didn't need other, more obvious implementations of the motion controls. It makes playing 3 after 1 and 2 really jarring, because it turns things that could have been automated motions into the gameplay equivalent of a 3D movie having things fly directly at the screen for the gimmick's sake.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Yeah, I'm completely checked out of this mind-numbing sales discussion until we have literally any information on the game.

I've never seen so many people trying to say a game that we know nothing about will sell poorly.

 

[BozPaggs]

Metroid fans predict that the 10th game in the series will finally be the one that breaks out, betting on 10 million sales.

Nintendo releases Metroid Prime 4 as the ding-dang holiday title on the best selling console of all time.

Prime 4 sells 4 million copies, the best selling Metroid game of all time.

Metroid fans are heartbroken, then enraged. Why does Nintendo always do this to Metroid?! Release it on a dying system? What were they thinking?

@mazi knows what they must do. They step into the quantum leap accelerator... and vanish.

Two years of their lives, spent in the past, using their knowledge of the future to infiltrate Retro studios, they convince Nintendo to make Prime 4 a launch title for Switch 2. Having set right what once went wrong, Mazi leaps into the future.

4 million in sales.

"It just looks like a Switch game? Why did they release it on new hardware without an install base. Why does Nintendo keep doing this to Metroid?"

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more. Deeper into the past, Mazi spends a decade learning Japanese before arriving in 60s japan to become mentor to a young Shigeru Miyamoto. "Trust not Bamco with the Bounty Hunter" becomes Mazi's dying words. Miyamoto doesn't understand, assuming it's delirium.

60 years later, Miyamoto will remember their mentor, and abruptly decide that Prime 4 can't be trusted to Bandai Namco, and sends it directly to Retro, two years earlier. Mazi returns to their body in the altered present, where without the reboot delay, Prime 4 releases 2 years earlier. The Switch is at its peak, as is Metroid fandom, with the release of Dread the year before.

4 million in sales.

"Why does Nintendo do this? Everyone at Retro who made the first games are gone, they should have given it to another studio, make it fresh. They just hate Metroid. They hate Samus."

Now Mazi knows the truth. Travelling back one last time, Mazi must kill every alternate version of themselves in order to restore the timeline. They return to 2021, as soon as the Prime 4 thread is opened on famiboards. They post the very first reply.

A Yeah! wasn't enough. This is exceptional.

 

[Galgavias]

If the Switch 2 is backwards compatible, then it releasing on Switch 1 wouldn't make much of a difference if they had said in their marketing that you can play it on the new hardware as well. In fact, that would have benefitted the Switch 2 by making its backwards compatibility features (and possible enhancements of compatible games) known and visible to the public.

If the plan is to launch it on Switch 2, they will do that anyway. Switch 1 has an incredible active player base and there is already an audience for Metroid on it. Switch 1 is the best place to launch it to make their money back, release a Switch 2 upgrade patch (make it a $10 upgrade if you want, who cares) when the system comes out.

Both of these options would result in lower Day 1 sales for Prime 4 as some people would wait until Switch 2 launches to get the game. Releasing Prime 4 after Switch 2 has been unveiled would definitely muddy people's decision making. Why would people rush out to get a game if they can wait 6 months for the superior version, as it were.

No-one is addressing the elephant in the room which is that if Switch 2 has indeed been delayed because Nintendo feel they don't have the launch lineup for it, why would they then release one of their most anticipated games to make a quick buck over Christmas when they could delay it a few months, have it as a cross gen title, and buy themselves some more time for Mario? You're basically robbing Peter to pay Paul in that situation.

Maybe Nintendo have done their research and feel having Metroid as a final holiday title for Switch 1 is the right option, but I feel it has more value as an exciting game to showcase their new console which will appeal to fans and early adopters. Especially if they're struggling to get the games ready for Switch 2. Sometime's it's not just about the raw game sales.

 

[Paxie]

Metroid fans predict that the 10th game in the series will finally be the one that breaks out, betting on 10 million sales.

Nintendo releases Metroid Prime 4 as the ding-dang holiday title on the best selling console of all time.

Prime 4 sells 4 million copies, the best selling Metroid game of all time.

Metroid fans are heartbroken, then enraged. Why does Nintendo always do this to Metroid?! Release it on a dying system? What were they thinking?

@mazi knows what they must do. They step into the quantum leap accelerator... and vanish.

Two years of their lives, spent in the past, using their knowledge of the future to infiltrate Retro studios, they convince Nintendo to make Prime 4 a launch title for Switch 2. Having set right what once went wrong, Mazi leaps into the future.

4 million in sales.

"It just looks like a Switch game? Why did they release it on new hardware without an install base. Why does Nintendo keep doing this to Metroid?"

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more. Deeper into the past, Mazi spends a decade learning Japanese before arriving in 60s japan to become mentor to a young Shigeru Miyamoto. "Trust not Bamco with the Bounty Hunter" becomes Mazi's dying words. Miyamoto doesn't understand, assuming it's delirium.

60 years later, Miyamoto will remember their mentor, and abruptly decide that Prime 4 can't be trusted to Bandai Namco, and sends it directly to Retro, two years earlier. Mazi returns to their body in the altered present, where without the reboot delay, Prime 4 releases 2 years earlier. The Switch is at its peak, as is Metroid fandom, with the release of Dread the year before.

4 million in sales.

"Why does Nintendo do this? Everyone at Retro who made the first games are gone, they should have given it to another studio, make it fresh. They just hate Metroid. They hate Samus."

Now Mazi knows the truth. Travelling back one last time, Mazi must kill every alternate version of themselves in order to restore the timeline. They return to 2021, as soon as the Prime 4 thread is opened on famiboards. They post the very first reply.

This is art. 10/10

 

[Gengar]

Metroid fans predict that the 10th game in the series will finally be the one that breaks out, betting on 10 million sales.

Nintendo releases Metroid Prime 4 as the ding-dang holiday title on the best selling console of all time.

Prime 4 sells 4 million copies, the best selling Metroid game of all time.

Metroid fans are heartbroken, then enraged. Why does Nintendo always do this to Metroid?! Release it on a dying system? What were they thinking?

@mazi knows what they must do. They step into the quantum leap accelerator... and vanish.

Two years of their lives, spent in the past, using their knowledge of the future to infiltrate Retro studios, they convince Nintendo to make Prime 4 a launch title for Switch 2. Having set right what once went wrong, Mazi leaps into the future.

4 million in sales.

"It just looks like a Switch game? Why did they release it on new hardware without an install base. Why does Nintendo keep doing this to Metroid?"

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more. Deeper into the past, Mazi spends a decade learning Japanese before arriving in 60s japan to become mentor to a young Shigeru Miyamoto. "Trust not Bamco with the Bounty Hunter" becomes Mazi's dying words. Miyamoto doesn't understand, assuming it's delirium.

60 years later, Miyamoto will remember their mentor, and abruptly decide that Prime 4 can't be trusted to Bandai Namco, and sends it directly to Retro, two years earlier. Mazi returns to their body in the altered present, where without the reboot delay, Prime 4 releases 2 years earlier. The Switch is at its peak, as is Metroid fandom, with the release of Dread the year before.

4 million in sales.

"Why does Nintendo do this? Everyone at Retro who made the first games are gone, they should have given it to another studio, make it fresh. They just hate Metroid. They hate Samus."

Now Mazi knows the truth. Travelling back one last time, Mazi must kill every alternate version of themselves in order to restore the timeline. They return to 2021, as soon as the Prime 4 thread is opened on famiboards. They post the very first reply.

I don't know how others feel, but I would be fine with Prime 4 selling 4 million. I would love for it to be as high as possible, but 4 million isn't bad.

By the way, this post deserves 4 million yeahs. Probably the best thing I've read on here in a while.

 

[YolkFolk]

Honestly, I want them to launch MP4 on Switch 2.

If Switch 2 can claim to have the release of a 3D Mario and a 3D Metroid in the first year then it will be off to a great start in terms of quality big hitters from Nintendo.

If MP4 comes out this year on Switch alone then how long until the likes of Metroid Prime, 3D Zelda, Splatoon and Smash launch on Switch 2? It could be years.

Instead let MP4 be a showcase of higher resolutions, RT, and better frame rates on the new hardware. Let the Switch 2 have an early feather in its cap.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

RT will make almost no impact on Prime 4 as the game was almost certainly designed around baked global illumination and not very reflective surfaces to work on the Switch 1.

 

[Danny]

Yeah, I'm completely checked out of this mind-numbing sales discussion until we have literally any information on the game.

I've never seen so many people trying to say a game that we know nothing about will sell poorly.

Metroid seems to be the only Nintendo series with no growth potential according to some. There are other possibilities other than selling 30 million copies or 3 million. Metroid can easily become a franchise that sells more than 3 million in the future.

I have a hard time thinking Nintendo greenlit Prime 4 to be one of their most expensive game ever to be happy about it selling 3 million copies. Clearly Nintendo themselves expect this game to do better than that by budget alone. I think Nintendo more has a target of like 8 million copies or so for Prime 4. Nintendo gave Metroid Prime 4 a massive budget for it to be a breakout hit for the franchise among non Metroid fans. They want Metroid to grow to become a bigger IP than it has been for Nintendo.

Will they succeed? Who knows. But that is clearly what Nintendo has intended for Prime 4.

 

[Brock Reiher]

We have no idea what this game is like! How are we making these statements?

We know one thing-- it was announced for Nintendo Switch

 

[Danny]

We know one thing-- it was announced for Nintendo Switch

A lot of Nintendo titles have been made for one system but they instead became synonymous with the next console instead. Twilight Princess for example started its development as a Gamecube game, but is now known mostly as a Wii game. Breath of the Wild started its development as a Wii U title but became the representation of the Switch instead.

Metroid Prime 4 will become synonymous with the Switch 2 as well in the future. Regardless of which system it started its development under.

 

[Giancarlo]

Anyone else thinking Prime 2 and 3 will come this year to Switch and then next year Prime 4 will come out to Switch 1 and 2?

i always trough/expected Metroid Prime 2/3 would release 6 months/1 year before the release of Metroid Prime 4

 

[Brock Reiher]

A lot of Nintendo titles have been made for one system but they instead became synonymous with the next console instead. Twilight Princess for example started its development as a Gamecube game, but is now known mostly as a Wii game. Breath of the Wild started its development as a Wii U title but became the representation of the Switch instead.

Metroid Prime 4 will become synonymous with the Switch 2 as well in the future. Regardless of which system it started its development under.

There are many differences between the Switch vs those other consoles, but the biggest one is the Switch still has tons of momentum and the Switch 2 will be fully backwards compatible. Nintendo likely wants to sell as many copies as possible which will happen on Switch.

Metroid Prime 4 will become synonymous with the Switch 2 in the same way TLOUS 2 is with PS5.

 

[Bulgowski]

Twilight Princess for example started its development as a Gamecube game, but is now known mostly as a Wii game.

Nah, I don't really agree with this. Whenever I see it discussed online, it's usually referred to as a gamecube game. Also the popularity of Dolphin has kind of canonized it as a Gamecube game with younger people.

 

[Goodtwin]

I have a hard time thinking Nintendo greenlit Prime 4 to be one of their most expensive game ever to be happy about it selling 3 million copies. Clearly Nintendo themselves expect this game to do better than that by budget alone. I think Nintendo more has a target of like 8 million copies or so for Prime 4. Nintendo gave Metroid Prime 4 a massive budget for it to be a breakout hit for the franchise among non Metroid fans. They want Metroid to grow to become a bigger IP than it has been for Nintendo.

We do not know what type of budget Prime 4 has racked up, but I do not see Retro's expenses for their development of Prime 4 going beyond one hundred million dollars. Retro only has 195 employees, many of whom will assist on other internal projects at Nintendo. Even if ever single Retro employee overhead cost were considered part of Prime 4's budget, you wouldn't reach one hundred million dollars. If you look at Monolithsoft and the sales of Xenoblade games, its very similar. They never sell more a few million copies and they have 264 employees. My guess is that Nintendo's expectation is for Prime 4 to become the best selling Metroid game, which means just over 3 million copies. If it cant do that with a userbase as large as Switch, then they may not greenlight another one, but if it can get into that 4-6 million sold range, I think Nintendo will be very pleased and it will fall Nintendo will look at it more like Kirby, an IP that doesn't do huge numbers but can safely expect it to sell at least a few million units.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Health insurance and payroll taxes add significantly to employee costs, you should estimate a minimum of like $10k per person per month. This leads to an estimated operating cost per year for just Retro of $10,000*150(number of employees on average)*12=$18m per year. If you increase the employee count to 180 and increase the cost per employee to $11,000 due to inflation, you're at $23.76m a year. This is just Retro alone and they are receiving a huge amount of additional art support which we know (from Retro themselves) is at minimum $10 million total for Prime 4 but may be much larger than that.

The issue with estimating Prime 4's budget is just trying to estimate how much external development support it's getting as it could be as low as something like $12m or, I don't know, like $70m or something. We'll have a much better idea when we see the credits and can see how many support studios and employees from those studios worked on the game.

 

[Supreme Overlord]

Also if we do get physical back compat then "cross-gen" is redundant

Remember if Switch 2 is truly backwards compatible, there's no reason to "hold for cross gen" because everything is cross gen.

This seems to pop up a bit, but the idea that backwards compatibility makes everything cross-gen seems to miss or ignore some factors. Backward compatibility simply means you can play it on the newer system, whereas cross-gen indicates more intentionality. One wouldn't go back and promote the entire Switch library as cross-gen.

Which is the other element, that cross-gen is also an avenue for marketing. It highlights different titles so they aren't lost in the previous consoles library, while calling attention to them for rhe original console as well.

None of this will provide insight into Prime 4's release plans or whether it's going to be cross-gen, of course. That all will depend on whatever cross-gen plans Nintendo has.

However, if Nintendo had planned to position Prime 4 as such a cross-gen title, then I suspect it would follow along with any minor delay in the hardware release. And I could see Prime 4 being selected for such positioning, given its particular potential for highlighting the glow-up a game could get without even being primarily developed for the new system -- so long as it wasn't deemed too much trouble to work it into a notable example, which could very well be the case.

In the end, I'm guessing cross-gen on this one. It's not like there's any weight to whether the guess is correct anyway.

no, it's not "ok" Why should Nintendo in its current state of growth give a shit about Metroid as a franchise if all it can sell is the bare minimum when that time and resources on existing IPs or new IP's would sell better. "well enough" is what killed the franchise for 6 years

I mean, yeah, if it sells well enough to continue on in recognizably "metroid" form, without causing it to be turned into something else, it's doing pretty okay. Not everything is going to reach the highest highs.

Besides, Metroid serves as basically a prestige title for Nintendo these days. And, as per the discussion from earlier, there seems to be data suggesting that the series sells a disproportionate amount of consoles compared to titles sold. There's more to consider than raw copies sold.

Nintendo is more than willing to make new entries in series that sell equivalent to Metroid. Xenoblade

The sheer number of times I've seen people insist that Metroid is absolutely not a major title but Xenoblade unquestionably is.

 

[Brock Reiher]

Which is the other element, that cross-gen is also an avenue for marketing. It highlights different titles so they aren't lost in the previous consoles library, while calling attention to them for rhe original console as well.

I understand this, but this is why it makes more sense to release on Switch first. In a world where games are forgotten a week after release, having an excuse to announce an exciting new update is even more valuable to keep people talking about the game months after release. Delaying the game so it can be overshadowed by a new console and exclsuvie games does it no favors.

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

I understand this, but this is why it makes more sense to release on Switch first. In a world where games are forgotten a week after release, having an excuse to announce an exciting new update is even more valuable to keep people talking about the game months after release. Delaying the game so it can be overshadowed by a new console and exclsuvie games does it no favors.

being overshadowed by a new upcoming console would do it even less favours, and plenty of majors ps4 and Xbone game got next gen patches on PS5 or series s/x and I can't think of a single game outside the one we can't say has benefited from any sales boosts from them

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

Metroid Prime 4tnit

 

[Christo750]

Both of these options would result in lower Day 1 sales for Prime 4 as some people would wait until Switch 2 launches to get the game. Releasing Prime 4 after Switch 2 has been unveiled would definitely muddy people's decision making. Why would people rush out to get a game if they can wait 6 months for the superior version, as it were.

No-one is addressing the elephant in the room which is that if Switch 2 has indeed been delayed because Nintendo feel they don't have the launch lineup for it, why would they then release one of their most anticipated games to make a quick buck over Christmas when they could delay it a few months, have it as a cross gen title, and buy themselves some more time for Mario? You're basically robbing Peter to pay Paul in that situation.

Maybe Nintendo have done their research and feel having Metroid as a final holiday title for Switch 1 is the right option, but I feel it has more value as an exciting game to showcase their new console which will appeal to fans and early adopters. Especially if they're struggling to get the games ready for Switch 2. Sometime's it's not just about the raw game sales.

IMO this assumes 2 things:

#1) the 3D Mario game is the "software reason" Switch 2 is delayed and not anything else.
#2) Metroid Prime has the capability of moving systems as a launch title.

If #2 is true, and if Prime 4 is ready for launch, they would just launch Switch 2 this November, ride the holiday bump, AND give the bump to Prime 4 as a cross-gen title. They wouldn't piss off third parties, who I'd imagine are really unhappy about the delay, and they'd have a huge Nintendo game that is likely unlike a lot of other offerings at launch. But a console can't launch on Metroid's back. It is a system seller to a super small niche of people, but it doesn't carry a launch like Mario or Zelda does.

Regarding #1, I doubt it. EPD wrapped Mario Odyssey 7 years ago, only consulted on Mario Maker 2, and was assisted by NST for Bowser's Fury. That team has been full steam ahead on the next 3D Mario for a long time, so I would imagine Mario isn't necessarily the problem. "Launch lineup" could just as well mean they want a 2017 scenario where they have a major new title every month. So if they need to save software for it, why put ANYTHING out this year? Why not save everything for Switch 2? Answer is, as I stated before, people are still playing Switch more than they've ever played any home console or portable this late in it's lifecycle. Maybe PS4 and 360 are passed it. It's unprecedented.

Right now, Switch 2 does not exist and Prime 4 is not announced for it. Retro Studios has been working on this game for 5 years now, and I fully and wholeheartedly agree with you that this game is expensive. Probably the most expensive video game Nintendo has ever produced; beyond any Zelda or Mario. I can armchair analyst all I want, but honestly I don't know how they make their money back on it. I fully believe they just want to get this out the door. I would almost imagine that there isn't a whole lot left first-party that isn't being worked on for Switch 2, so that's why February's VOD was a Partner Showcase and not a full-body Nintendo Direct. If Prime 4 is the last big tentpole, I think it gets a planned unveiling in its own 10-minute presentation in March or April, for release in September.

This is all assuming that it's ready to go. Which given Retro's ability and output lately, it's fully possible it isn't.

 

[Goodtwin]

We'll have a much better idea when we see the credits and can see how many support studios and employees from those studios worked on the game.

Even with the credits, this is extremely hard to extrapolate who was actually working full time and for how long on the project. They credit anyone and everyone who had even the most minuscule contribution to the project. Retro took on the project back in 2019/2020, but this would not have a huge body of workers working on it immediately. They most likely started with a small group of 25-50 people to flesh out the overall concept and story and potentially new gameplay mechanics. So by 2021 they should have been beyond those preliminary planning stages and started to get into the thick of development. At most, development cost would be hard pressed to surpass 100 million dollars. A safe average profit per copy sold would be about $40. That means 4 million sold would bring in 160 million dollars, 60 million dollars above and beyond their development cost. If they were to match Dread at 3 million sold, they bring in 120 million dollars in profit and walk away with 20 million. For the same reason Monolithsoft can make Xenoblade games that only sell a few million copies and still be a healthy company, Retro can do the same with Metroid. It doesn't need to do huge numbers in order to be profitable.

Also, Prime Remastered was developed through this time period and sold over a million units bringing in 25-30 million in profit.

I understand this, but this is why it makes more sense to release on Switch first. In a world where games are forgotten a week after release, having an excuse to announce an exciting new update is even more valuable to keep people talking about the game months after release. Delaying the game so it can be overshadowed by a new console and exclsuvie games does it no favors.

Yep. We all have to remember that Nintendo is seemingly defying conventional wisdom with the release of SNG. They seemingly could launch the new hardware later this year if they really wanted to, but have instead chosen to release early next year to be better prepared on the software lineup. The fact that they are choosing to do this rather than being forced to because of circumstances, we have to consider their thought process for Prime 4 could be different than what we have been thinking. We cant even be sure that Prime 4 has had any real work done on it for the new hardware. It makes logical sense because of the development time frame, but its not something we can actually know. Its quite possible that Prime 4 has only ever been developed for Switch and any next gen work for a patch or a definitive version would happen at a later date.

When Prime Remastered shadow dropped last year, I thought for sure Prime 4 was going to be a late 2023 game. It just made sense to start building some hype for Metroid Prime again. Why hold a completed Metroid Prime for so long if not to help promote a looming Prime 4 release. The months passed us by with zero mention of Prime 4. Trying to figure out Nintendo's rationale is often times a head scratcher.

 

[Marce-chan]

With the sole exception of 3D Mario which is a known quantity when it comes to being in development for the next hardware alongside the hardware itself (Odyssey being in development since 2013 alongside Switch), I don't think there were many people already making games aiming for the next generation as early as 2019.

The scope of Metroid Prime 4 is the scope of a Switch game. It just has to be because that's the promised platform. For it to be a "graphical showcase" for the Switch 2 which likely will have a 3D Mario with more than 6 years in the making and probably a Mario Kart that took awhile and which the team made 8 look so good in 2014 that it's barely noticeable it's that old nowadays... It'd need way more than just the ~9 months porting that BotW took.

The effort needed would probably delay the game even further. Yes, it's BC, but from BC you'd get just the Switch game upscaled at best. For it to be worthy the title of a "Switch 2 game" it'd have to have enhancements for it. And what even would those enhancements beyond resolution be without making the Switch 2 version basically a remaster?

Just like not all the next gen patches didn't come as soon as PS5 and Xbox Series launched, enhanced versions of Switch games wouldn't all be a day one thing. Specially not the probably more fabled ones in Tears of the Kingdom and Metroid Prime 4.

I honestly believe it's best for us to have a game that shows Switch on its full potential and said game is played later in higher resolution or gets a proper enhanced version with new textures and lighting like Horizon Forbidden West(tho that's more a toned down PS5 game than an enhanced PS4 game...) than just potentially putting at least 6 months more of development on a game that will already have taken 6 years.

And I say that while still expecting it to be cross gen tbh...

 

[lattjeful]

Metroid fans predict that the 10th game in the series will finally be the one that breaks out, betting on 10 million sales.

Nintendo releases Metroid Prime 4 as the ding-dang holiday title on the best selling console of all time.

Prime 4 sells 4 million copies, the best selling Metroid game of all time.

Metroid fans are heartbroken, then enraged. Why does Nintendo always do this to Metroid?! Release it on a dying system? What were they thinking?

@mazi knows what they must do. They step into the quantum leap accelerator... and vanish.

Two years of their lives, spent in the past, using their knowledge of the future to infiltrate Retro studios, they convince Nintendo to make Prime 4 a launch title for Switch 2. Having set right what once went wrong, Mazi leaps into the future.

4 million in sales.

"It just looks like a Switch game? Why did they release it on new hardware without an install base. Why does Nintendo keep doing this to Metroid?"

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more. Deeper into the past, Mazi spends a decade learning Japanese before arriving in 60s japan to become mentor to a young Shigeru Miyamoto. "Trust not Bamco with the Bounty Hunter" becomes Mazi's dying words. Miyamoto doesn't understand, assuming it's delirium.

60 years later, Miyamoto will remember their mentor, and abruptly decide that Prime 4 can't be trusted to Bandai Namco, and sends it directly to Retro, two years earlier. Mazi returns to their body in the altered present, where without the reboot delay, Prime 4 releases 2 years earlier. The Switch is at its peak, as is Metroid fandom, with the release of Dread the year before.

4 million in sales.

"Why does Nintendo do this? Everyone at Retro who made the first games are gone, they should have given it to another studio, make it fresh. They just hate Metroid. They hate Samus."

Now Mazi knows the truth. Travelling back one last time, Mazi must kill every alternate version of themselves in order to restore the timeline. They return to 2021, as soon as the Prime 4 thread is opened on famiboards. They post the very first reply.

If Fami has a hall of fame, this post is going in there twice.

 

[BozPaggs]

being overshadowed by a new upcoming console would do it even less favours, and plenty of majors ps4 and Xbone game got next gen patches on PS5 or series s/x and I can't think of a single game outside the one we can't say has benefited from any sales boosts from them

*in the eyes of enthusiasts
Again we live in a bubble, the average consumer is who Ninty is catering to and the average consumer, far far more often than not, would not think like that.
If they were genuinely concerned about "overshadowing" they wouldn't reveal 2witch publicly until next January, seeing as the consensus is a public reveal this year (whatever form that may be) they clearly aren't concerned.

 

[Galgavias]

IMO this assumes 2 things:

#1) the 3D Mario game is the "software reason" Switch 2 is delayed and not anything else.
#2) Metroid Prime has the capability of moving systems as a launch title.

If #2 is true, and if Prime 4 is ready for launch, they would just launch Switch 2 this November, ride the holiday bump, AND give the bump to Prime 4 as a cross-gen title. They wouldn't piss off third parties, who I'd imagine are really unhappy about the delay, and they'd have a huge Nintendo game that is likely unlike a lot of other offerings at launch. But a console can't launch on Metroid's back. It is a system seller to a super small niche of people, but it doesn't carry a launch like Mario or Zelda does.

Regarding #1, I doubt it. EPD wrapped Mario Odyssey 7 years ago, only consulted on Mario Maker 2, and was assisted by NST for Bowser's Fury. That team has been full steam ahead on the next 3D Mario for a long time, so I would imagine Mario isn't necessarily the problem. "Launch lineup" could just as well mean they want a 2017 scenario where they have a major new title every month. So if they need to save software for it, why put ANYTHING out this year? Why not save everything for Switch 2? Answer is, as I stated before, people are still playing Switch more than they've ever played any home console or portable this late in it's lifecycle. Maybe PS4 and 360 are passed it. It's unprecedented.

Right now, Switch 2 does not exist and Prime 4 is not announced for it. Retro Studios has been working on this game for 5 years now, and I fully and wholeheartedly agree with you that this game is expensive. Probably the most expensive video game Nintendo has ever produced; beyond any Zelda or Mario. I can armchair analyst all I want, but honestly I don't know how they make their money back on it. I fully believe they just want to get this out the door. I would almost imagine that there isn't a whole lot left first-party that isn't being worked on for Switch 2, so that's why February's VOD was a Partner Showcase and not a full-body Nintendo Direct. If Prime 4 is the last big tentpole, I think it gets a planned unveiling in its own 10-minute presentation in March or April, for release in September.

This is all assuming that it's ready to go. Which given Retro's ability and output lately, it's fully possible it isn't.

Regarding point one, we don't know what the situation is regarding Nintendo's launch titles for Switch 2, only that the rumour was the reason it's launch has been 'delayed' was because they were concerned they didn't have enough games ready for the launch window. Whether this involves 3D Mario or not is a moot point. If we take this rumour at face value, and Nintendo are struggling to get some tentpole releases ready for the Switch 2's launch, then delaying Prime 4 and making it cross gen would be a solid option to bulk out the the launch lineup, and to give them more time for the other big hitters.

As for point 2, I feel we're now entering the realm of Schrodinger's Metroid where the franchise is both a system seller and niche franchise depending on the argument you want to make. But what it is is a game that early adopters of the Switch 2 would want to play, in the way BOTW was that game for Switch 1. We know the next console is likely going to be very supply constrained, so unlike Switch where Nintendo had nothing to lose, we could see Nintendo follow a strategy similar to Sony where they launched the PS5 with a Demon's Souls remake with their big hitters coming later. Nintendo could follow a similar strategy relying on a 'smaller' franchise while the launch rush passes, before coming in with their more recognisable franchises down the line.

The one scenario I might entertain is that Prime 4 has always been a Switch 1 title, and if Nintendo have that and Pokemon ready for this holiday season, that might have given them the confidence to push the Switch 2's launch back 6 months and give it more time to cook. But that doesn't explain my previous conundrum which is if Nintendo had planned all along for this to just be a Switch 1 title, then logically it would have had to have been a H1 2024 title. And if that was the case, why haven't we seen it yet? In that scenario Prime 4 could easily have been the 'one last thing' from the September Direct instead of TTYD. Or it could have been a show stealer at the Game Awards. I would be very surprised if Nintendo decided to keep it under wraps for ages to only reveal it with a few months until release. I know that was what happened with Dread, but Prime 4 is on a whole new level.

The expenses angle is definitely a factor here, and Nintendo will want to get maximum return on their investment for this Metroid project they've clearly put a lot of time, money and effort into. If I were in their position, giving it the Cross Gen treatment would be the best way to guarantee return on investment, and the best opportunity to boost the profile of the Metroid franchise they've perhaps ever had. But maybe Nintendo are just happy for it to remain a prestige franchise and they have bigger fish to fry with Switch 2. Guess we'll see.

 

[Christo750]

Regarding point one, we don't know what the situation is regarding Nintendo's launch titles for Switch 2, only that the rumour was the reason it's launch has been 'delayed' was because they were concerned they didn't have enough games ready for the launch window. Whether this involves 3D Mario or not is a moot point. If we take this rumour at face value, and Nintendo are struggling to get some tentpole releases ready for the Switch 2's launch, then delaying Prime 4 and making it cross gen would be a solid option to bulk out the the launch lineup, and to give them more time for the other big hitters.

As for point 2, I feel we're now entering the realm of Schrodinger's Metroid where the franchise is both a system seller and niche franchise depending on the argument you want to make. But what it is is a game that early adopters of the Switch 2 would want to play, in the way BOTW was that game for Switch 1. We know the next console is likely going to be very supply constrained, so unlike Switch where Nintendo had nothing to lose, we could see Nintendo follow a strategy similar to Sony where they launched the PS5 with a Demon's Souls remake with their big hitters coming later. Nintendo could follow a similar strategy relying on a 'smaller' franchise while the launch rush passes, before coming in with their more recognisable franchises down the line.

The one scenario I might entertain is that Prime 4 has always been a Switch 1 title, and if Nintendo have that and Pokemon ready for this holiday season, that might have given them the confidence to push the Switch 2's launch back 6 months and give it more time to cook. But that doesn't explain my previous conundrum which is if Nintendo had planned all along for this to just be a Switch 1 title, then logically it would have had to have been a H1 2024 title. And if that was the case, why haven't we seen it yet? In that scenario Prime 4 could easily have been the 'one last thing' from the September Direct instead of TTYD. Or it could have been a show stealer at the Game Awards. I would be very surprised if Nintendo decided to keep it under wraps for ages to only reveal it with a few months until release. I know that was what happened with Dread, but Prime 4 is on a whole new level.

The expenses angle is definitely a factor here, and Nintendo will want to get maximum return on their investment for this Metroid project they've clearly put a lot of time, money and effort into. If I were in their position, giving it the Cross Gen treatment would be the best way to guarantee return on investment, and the best opportunity to boost the profile of the Metroid franchise they've perhaps ever had. But maybe Nintendo are just happy for it to remain a prestige franchise and they have bigger fish to fry with Switch 2. Guess we'll see.

Those are the three magic words lol.

I still think it's out in October of this year, but one thing I think we can agree on is that Prime 4 is gunna be $70 no matter where it launches.