New Super Mario Bros U. deluxe sold 760K in this quarter alone, so I think Wonder is going to surprise, both with initial sales and with legs.Jesus Christ.
The plumber should be thankful he has his karting pastime, because there’s genuinely a chance mainline Zelda has become a bigger juggernaut than mainline Mario.
Like… I don’t see Wonder outdoing this. It’s going to soar past Odyssey too, we haven’t even hit its first holiday.
You can’t even make the Wonder will outleg it argument, because BotW is an extremely leggy title
It'll only be a "surprise" because some people have the analytic skills of gold fish. There's no reason to think Wonder won't be massive.New Super Mario Bros U. deluxe sold 760K in this quarter alone, so I think Wonder is going to surprise, both with initial sales and with legs.
Everything points to TotK opening bigger because BotW expanded the built-in audience. TotK sold as well in 2 months as BotW did in 3 years because BotW created the environment that made it possible. You say "slower selling" like it's an indication that BotW's WoM was comparatively weak. In fact, it's probably the strongest case of WoM -> audience expansion since Pokemon Blue/Red. Which sold like 100k in its first week and is, to date, still the best-selling Pokemon game by a wide margin. But yeah, literally every Pokemon game since has obviously opened at much higher than 100k.It's actually the complete opposite.
TOTK is a bigger game than BOTW, launched to a bigger userbase, has more WOM given the traction of its launch, and the franchise is more popular than ever. All of which will ultimately lead to it being leggier than it's slower selling predecessor.
Suggesting it needs to prove to have BOTW's legs is akin to saying that GTA5 would have to prove to have GTA4's legs when it got off to a much faster start in sales (GTA 5 also launched at the end of PS3/360's lifecycle and wound up selling much more than GTA 4).
Like I said, this will be a game Nintendo consumers will buy in droves for the better part of the next decade. There is nothing to suggest otherwise. Buckle up.
Nope. I'm saying slower selling because it is in fact slower selling. Sure. BOTW laid out the groundwork for TOTK, but I'm strictly talking about how much each of these games will sell LTD regardless of circumstances.Everything points to TotK opening bigger because BotW expanded the built-in audience. TotK sold as well in 2 months as BotW did in 3 years because BotW created the environment that made it possible. You say "slower selling" like it's an indication that BotW's WoM was comparatively weak. In fact, it's probably the strongest case of WoM -> audience expansion since Pokemon Blue/Red. Which sold like 100k in its first week and is, to date, still the best-selling Pokemon game by a wide margin. But yeah, literally every Pokemon game since has obviously opened at much higher than 100k.
A breakout hit expands the audience, and then the audience naturally decays. Typically. May not be the case here, but it's definitely too early to tell. It's premature to declare that TotK's legs are much stronger than BotW's and will go on to sell 50m copies when we only have launch quarter sales. You don't even have a second data point on your graph yet to draw a straight line between the two.
GTA4 wasn't really a huge series breakout. It sold a few million more than San Andreas, which in turn sold a few million more than Vice City, which sold a few million more than GTA3. There was a pretty steady, linear expansion there. So that example isn't really applicable here. The comparison you're making with Zelda is that GTA6 will sell like 250 million copies because GTA5 sold 150. One enormous breakout hit, and then a follow-up that somehow almost doubles it, because reasons. That's... a little more audacious.
This keeps being funny to me yeah. The Mario brand is huge right now while IP was already selling good before the movie came out. Yet somehow people think TotK is like Nintendo's last big seller for the Switch.It'll only be a "surprise" because some people have the analytic skills of gold fish. There's no reason to think Wonder won't be massive.
There's something to the idea that certain games are big system sellers while other games are just massive software movers, and I think Wonder will move a ton of copies but won't really make a major impact on consoles sold like TOTK did.This keeps being funny to me yeah. The Mario brand is huge right now while IP was already selling good before the movie came out. Yet somehow people think TotK is like Nintendo's last big seller for the Switch.
more updated numbers from the 2023 CESA white paper, thanks to Kiria and CeroG1 from install base for posting them (link 1, link 2, link 3)
updated sales numbers as of December 31, 2022 (+sales since December 2021 unless noted):
- Splatoon 2 - 13.60M (+300K since March 2022)
- Super Mario Maker 2 - 8.42M (+530K )
- The Legend of Zelda: Links Awakening - 6.46M (+380K)
- Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 4.64M (+420K since March 2022)
- Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 4.62M (+500K)
- Mario Tennis Aces - 4.50M (+220K)
- Kirby Star Allies - 4.38M (+400K)
- Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 4.12M (+300K)
- 1-2 Switch - 3.74M (+110K)
- Yoshi’s Crafted World - 3.35M (+340K)
- Metroid Dread - 3.04M (+140K since March 2022)
- Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 2.7M (+260K)
- Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 1.88M (+200K)
- Paper Mario: The Origami King - 3.47M (+130K)
- Arms - 2.72M (+60K)
- Mario Golf: Super Rush - 2.48M (+130K since March 2022)
- Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 2.40M (+170K)
- Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker - 2.35M (+220K)
- Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit - 1.73 (+150K)
- Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order - 1.60M (+100K)
- WarioWare: Get It Together! - 1.34M (+70K since March 2022)
- Astral Chain - 1.33M (+50K)
- Dr Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 1.27M (+70K)
- Bayonetta (Switch) - 1.24M
- Bayonetta 2 (Switch) - 1.23 (+190K)
- Shin Megami Tensei V - 1.1M (+100K since April 2022)
- Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 1.99M (+100K)
- Miitopia - 1.79M (+110K since March 2022)
thanks, the post has been updatedA few figures missing here (most of them from the thread, SSHD from discord):
I should have all of the Switch titles accurated updated on my spreadsheet now. Will fill in the minor 3DS / Wii U updates when they are posted (or maybe a little after since it's pretty late over here).
- BDSP - 15.06
- Skyward Sword HD - 4.15
- Big Brain Academy - 1.94
- Game Builder Garage - 1.15
The WP numbers are up to Dec 2022. The two games you’re asking about released in 2023.No numbers from the white pages for Advance Wars and MP R?
Ah okThe WP numbers are up to Dec 2022. The two games you’re asking about released in 2023.
Agree. While im a mario fan, im not buying a console for a 2d one. 3D is a diff storyThere's something to the idea that certain games are big system sellers while other games are just massive software movers, and I think Wonder will move a ton of copies but won't really make a major impact on consoles sold like TOTK did.
Depends on what else there is to the game though. As of now it just looks like a really, really good 2D Mario, which is something that will resonate well with the current owners but I'm not sure how much more it'll bring in.
It's the first new Mario game since the movie, I think there will be a lot of kids getting their first console and first Mario game this holiday season.There's something to the idea that certain games are big system sellers while other games are just massive software movers, and I think Wonder will move a ton of copies but won't really make a major impact on consoles sold like TOTK did.
Depends on what else there is to the game though. As of now it just looks like a really, really good 2D Mario, which is something that will resonate well with the current owners but I'm not sure how much more it'll bring in.
more updated numbers from the 2023 CESA white paper, thanks to Kiria and CeroG1 from install base for posting them (link 1, link 2, link 3)
updated sales numbers as of December 31, 2022 (+sales since December 2021 unless noted):
- Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl - 15.06M (+140K since September 2022)
- Splatoon 2 - 13.60M (+300K since March 2022)
- Super Mario Maker 2 - 8.42M (+530K )
- The Legend of Zelda: Links Awakening - 6.46M (+380K)
- Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 4.64M (+420K since March 2022)
- The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD - 4.15M (+240K since March 2022)
DK unfortunately doesn’t have a dedicated team for it like Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, Kirby, etc., or an influential creator pushing for new games like Pikmin and Metroid (and keep in mind both of those series had long droughts as well). I imagine it is being worked on, it just doesn’t have the same support structure as other series to ensure it’s consistently being worked on.Im so happy for dk tropical freeze selling so well on switch despite being a simple port which costs also 10 €/$ more than the wiiU original.
It's so sad to see that Nintendo is completely ignoring dk and not giving him a new game which would sell so so well on switch, I just don't get it. In the meantime we get so many Xenoblade and fire emblem games which are not selling that well.
Even Metroid and Pikmin got new games...Where is DK, Nintendo??
(Don't get me wrong, I don't wanna hate on other Nintendo franchises, I love Pikmin, Metroid and fire emblem). I just want a new DK game, please
Im so happy for dk tropical freeze selling so well on switch despite being a simple port which costs also 10 €/$ more than the wiiU original.
It's so sad to see that Nintendo is completely ignoring dk and not giving him a new game which would sell so so well on switch, I just don't get it. In the meantime we get so many Xenoblade and fire emblem games which are not selling that well.
Even Metroid and Pikmin got new games...Where is DK, Nintendo??
(Don't get me wrong, I don't wanna hate on other Nintendo franchises, I love Pikmin, Metroid and fire emblem). I just want a new DK game, please
There's a market for them... but look at the market for the other ones. Allocating the budget for a new traditional 3D Zelda probably isn't worth it to Nintendo at this moment, especially since even without the fully open world, they're still not resource-light games.I don't want to hear that there is no market for traditional 3D Zelda games ever again. For an HD remaster of a classic 3D Zelda game to do these kinds of numbers despite being one of the most divisive games in the series and a catalyst for Nintendo to move the series in a new direction, it shows that there is indeed an appetite for this kind of game.
On a similar note, this is just more evidence that linear games are still appealing to a certain niche of gamers, and Nintendo (and other publishers) would be wise to find a way to cater to them in a way that's still profitable.
if rumors and reports are to be believed, it has someone arguably more important than any of those as a first step: Miyamoto. he really wants it to come home. I think DK will find a team within EPD.DK unfortunately doesn’t have a dedicated team for it like Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, Kirby, etc., or an influential creator pushing for new games like Pikmin and Metroid (and keep in mind both of those series had long droughts as well). I imagine it is being worked on, it just doesn’t have the same support structure as other series to ensure it’s consistently being worked on.
i agree there is still a market for them, but after today's news it's pretty clear that it's a much smaller market and not a priority anymore. i want another one too, but i think that's something we all need to make peace with. only so many classic 3D Zelda games to remaster, and i can't see resources being taken away from "open-air 3" to make another OOT thing.I don't want to hear that there is no market for traditional 3D Zelda games ever again. For an HD remaster of a classic 3D Zelda game to do these kinds of numbers despite being one of the most divisive games in the series and a catalyst for Nintendo to move the series in a new direction, it shows that there is indeed an appetite for this kind of game.
On a similar note, this is just more evidence that linear games are still appealing to a certain niche of gamers, and Nintendo (and other publishers) would be wise to find a way to cater to them in a way that's still profitable.
I don't want to hear that there is no market for traditional 3D Zelda games ever again. For an HD remaster of a classic 3D Zelda game to do these kinds of numbers despite being one of the most divisive games in the series and a catalyst for Nintendo to move the series in a new direction, it shows that there is indeed an appetite for this kind of game.
On a similar note, this is just more evidence that linear games are still appealing to a certain niche of gamers, and Nintendo (and other publishers) would be wise to find a way to cater to them in a way that's still profitable.
True, it's possible that it may do better numbers because of the movie. I hadn't really factored that in much but you're right.It's the first new Mario game since the movie, I think there will be a lot of kids getting their first console and first Mario game this holiday season.
By that logic, why does Nintendo develop any games that are not Mario games, Animal Crossing, fitness games, or open air Zelda?There's no point wasting development resources on them when they could be put towards a open air game, and an old style game would get absolutely lambasted if they tried outsourcing a new one, which is literally the only way it could happen.
it will easily outsell botw in the end, i don't think that's even a question. the issue is people coming up with wild numbers like 50 million lifetime.Seeing TOTK's launch numbers, making assumptions about legs, and concluding it will outsell BOTW is certainly a thing people are doing
Switch is a beast. A 10+ years port selling more than the original release is nuts.I don't want to hear that there is no market for traditional 3D Zelda games ever again. For an HD remaster of a classic 3D Zelda game to do these kinds of numbers despite being one of the most divisive games in the series and a catalyst for Nintendo to move the series in a new direction, it shows that there is indeed an appetite for this kind of game.
On a similar note, this is just more evidence that linear games are still appealing to a certain niche of gamers, and Nintendo (and other publishers) would be wise to find a way to cater to them in a way that's still profitable.
What is this assumption based on?it will easily outsell botw in the end, i don't think that's even a question.