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Sales Data Updated sales numbers for Switch titles: Tears of the Kingdom (18.51M), and more (UPDATE: new sales numbers for many other games, see threadmarks)

Jesus Christ.

The plumber should be thankful he has his karting pastime, because there’s genuinely a chance mainline Zelda has become a bigger juggernaut than mainline Mario.

Like… I don’t see Wonder outdoing this. It’s going to soar past Odyssey too, we haven’t even hit its first holiday.

You can’t even make the Wonder will outleg it argument, because BotW is an extremely leggy title
New Super Mario Bros U. deluxe sold 760K in this quarter alone, so I think Wonder is going to surprise, both with initial sales and with legs.
 
I know the numbers are good but let's not get carried away here people. Some of the predictions I'm now seeing for current and future Nintendo game sales are verging on the ludicrous. Let's keep our expectations in check.
 
New Super Mario Bros U. deluxe sold 760K in this quarter alone, so I think Wonder is going to surprise, both with initial sales and with legs.
It'll only be a "surprise" because some people have the analytic skills of gold fish. There's no reason to think Wonder won't be massive.
 
It's actually the complete opposite.

TOTK is a bigger game than BOTW, launched to a bigger userbase, has more WOM given the traction of its launch, and the franchise is more popular than ever. All of which will ultimately lead to it being leggier than it's slower selling predecessor.

Suggesting it needs to prove to have BOTW's legs is akin to saying that GTA5 would have to prove to have GTA4's legs when it got off to a much faster start in sales (GTA 5 also launched at the end of PS3/360's lifecycle and wound up selling much more than GTA 4).

Like I said, this will be a game Nintendo consumers will buy in droves for the better part of the next decade. There is nothing to suggest otherwise. Buckle up.
Everything points to TotK opening bigger because BotW expanded the built-in audience. TotK sold as well in 2 months as BotW did in 3 years because BotW created the environment that made it possible. You say "slower selling" like it's an indication that BotW's WoM was comparatively weak. In fact, it's probably the strongest case of WoM -> audience expansion since Pokemon Blue/Red. Which sold like 100k in its first week and is, to date, still the best-selling Pokemon game by a wide margin. But yeah, literally every Pokemon game since has obviously opened at much higher than 100k.

A breakout hit expands the audience, and then the audience naturally decays. Typically. May not be the case here, but it's definitely too early to tell. It's premature to declare that TotK's legs are much stronger than BotW's and will go on to sell 50m copies when we only have launch quarter sales. You don't even have a second data point on your graph yet to draw a straight line between the two.

GTA4 wasn't really a huge series breakout. It sold a few million more than San Andreas, which in turn sold a few million more than Vice City, which sold a few million more than GTA3. There was a pretty steady, linear expansion there. So that example isn't really applicable here. The comparison you're making with Zelda is that GTA6 will sell like 250 million copies because GTA5 sold 150. One enormous breakout hit, and then a follow-up that somehow almost doubles it, because reasons. That's... a little more audacious.
 
Everything points to TotK opening bigger because BotW expanded the built-in audience. TotK sold as well in 2 months as BotW did in 3 years because BotW created the environment that made it possible. You say "slower selling" like it's an indication that BotW's WoM was comparatively weak. In fact, it's probably the strongest case of WoM -> audience expansion since Pokemon Blue/Red. Which sold like 100k in its first week and is, to date, still the best-selling Pokemon game by a wide margin. But yeah, literally every Pokemon game since has obviously opened at much higher than 100k.

A breakout hit expands the audience, and then the audience naturally decays. Typically. May not be the case here, but it's definitely too early to tell. It's premature to declare that TotK's legs are much stronger than BotW's and will go on to sell 50m copies when we only have launch quarter sales. You don't even have a second data point on your graph yet to draw a straight line between the two.

GTA4 wasn't really a huge series breakout. It sold a few million more than San Andreas, which in turn sold a few million more than Vice City, which sold a few million more than GTA3. There was a pretty steady, linear expansion there. So that example isn't really applicable here. The comparison you're making with Zelda is that GTA6 will sell like 250 million copies because GTA5 sold 150. One enormous breakout hit, and then a follow-up that somehow almost doubles it, because reasons. That's... a little more audacious.
Nope. I'm saying slower selling because it is in fact slower selling. Sure. BOTW laid out the groundwork for TOTK, but I'm strictly talking about how much each of these games will sell LTD regardless of circumstances.

I started a "betting time" thread where people can really lay down their predictions and we can keep tabs on it while having a more focused discussion on these two games in particular as it has taken over this thread.

You and others are free to join.

 
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It'll only be a "surprise" because some people have the analytic skills of gold fish. There's no reason to think Wonder won't be massive.
This keeps being funny to me yeah. The Mario brand is huge right now while IP was already selling good before the movie came out. Yet somehow people think TotK is like Nintendo's last big seller for the Switch.
 
This keeps being funny to me yeah. The Mario brand is huge right now while IP was already selling good before the movie came out. Yet somehow people think TotK is like Nintendo's last big seller for the Switch.
There's something to the idea that certain games are big system sellers while other games are just massive software movers, and I think Wonder will move a ton of copies but won't really make a major impact on consoles sold like TOTK did.

Depends on what else there is to the game though. As of now it just looks like a really, really good 2D Mario, which is something that will resonate well with the current owners but I'm not sure how much more it'll bring in.
 
Zelda series now over 150 million

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  • BotW was a dual release and includes 1.70 million units sold by the Wii U version
  • TP was a dual release and includes 1.43 million units sold by the Gamecube version
 
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Those TotK numbers are bonkers. Second biggest first quarter launch sales after S/V, I think? Just incredible. BotW really expanded the audience and TotK is holding said audience superbly.
 
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My 2 biggest takeaways from the white papers are that xenoblade 2 will eventually sell over 3mil copies which is absurd, incredibles legs for this game and a great sign for the series.
And second, fire emblem echoes as sold over 1mil copies, which means that it was probably close to 900k at launch legging it out to 1mil. No wonder they were pretty happy with the 3ds game performances post switch. A fe remake on the 3ds in the switch era is the 5th best selling game in the series, it bodes well for the inevitable fe4 remake on switch.
Oh yeah fucking donkey kong sold 500k last year reaching 4.62mil copies, this bodes well for the next dk game that will never exist
 
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Nearly 20 MILLION for TOTK in <50 days. I'm floored. it's truly so deserving of it.

The Mario Wonder debate is interesting because I genuinely don't think it'll beat TOTK. Not even the price or whatever, but I don't think a 2D Platformer (Mario or otherwise) has as much cache as a big 3D Adventure game these days. the days of 3D being unapproachable are over; fortnite basically eliminated that problem.

but then Mario Wonder will go on to sell 20 million and I'm going to immediately say "oh well duh, what was I thinking?"
 
more updated numbers from the 2023 CESA white paper
more updated numbers from the 2023 CESA white paper, thanks to Kiria and CeroG1 from install base for posting them (link 1, link 2, link 3)

updated sales numbers as of December 31, 2022 (+sales since December 2021 unless noted):

  • Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl - 15.06M (+140K since September 2022)
  • Splatoon 2 - 13.60M (+300K since March 2022)
  • Super Mario Maker 2 - 8.42M (+530K )
  • The Legend of Zelda: Links Awakening - 6.46M (+380K)
  • Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 4.64M (+420K since March 2022)
  • Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 4.62M (+500K)
  • Mario Tennis Aces - 4.50M (+220K)
  • Kirby Star Allies - 4.38M (+400K)
  • The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD - 4.15M (+240K since March 2022)
  • Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 4.12M (+300K)
  • 1-2 Switch - 3.74M (+110K)
  • Paper Mario: The Origami King - 3.47M (+130K)
  • Yoshi’s Crafted World - 3.35M (+340K)
  • Metroid Dread - 3.04M (+140K since March 2022)
  • Arms - 2.72M (+60K)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 2.70M (+260K)
  • Mario Golf: Super Rush - 2.48M (+130K since March 2022)
  • Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 2.40M (+170K)
  • Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker - 2.35M (+220K)
  • Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 1.99M (+100K)
  • Big Brain Academy: Brain vs. Brain - 1.94M (+350K since March 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 1.88M (+200K)
  • Miitopia - 1.79M (+110K since March 2022)
  • Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit - 1.73 (+150K)
  • Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order - 1.60M (+100K)
  • WarioWare: Get It Together! - 1.34M (+70K since March 2022)
  • Astral Chain - 1.33M (+50K)
  • Dr Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 1.27M (+70K)
  • Bayonetta (Switch) - 1.24M
  • Bayonetta 2 (Switch) - 1.23 (+190K)
  • Game Builder Garage - 1.15M (+90K since March 2022)
  • Shin Megami Tensei V - 1.10M (+100K since April 2022)
 
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more updated numbers from the 2023 CESA white paper, thanks to Kiria and CeroG1 from install base for posting them (link 1, link 2, link 3)

updated sales numbers as of December 31, 2022 (+sales since December 2021 unless noted):

  • Splatoon 2 - 13.60M (+300K since March 2022)
  • Super Mario Maker 2 - 8.42M (+530K )
  • The Legend of Zelda: Links Awakening - 6.46M (+380K)
  • Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 4.64M (+420K since March 2022)
  • Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 4.62M (+500K)
  • Mario Tennis Aces - 4.50M (+220K)
  • Kirby Star Allies - 4.38M (+400K)
  • Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 4.12M (+300K)
  • 1-2 Switch - 3.74M (+110K)
  • Yoshi’s Crafted World - 3.35M (+340K)
  • Metroid Dread - 3.04M (+140K since March 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 2.7M (+260K)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 1.88M (+200K)
  • Paper Mario: The Origami King - 3.47M (+130K)
  • Arms - 2.72M (+60K)
  • Mario Golf: Super Rush - 2.48M (+130K since March 2022)
  • Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 2.40M (+170K)
  • Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker - 2.35M (+220K)
  • Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit - 1.73 (+150K)
  • Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order - 1.60M (+100K)
  • WarioWare: Get It Together! - 1.34M (+70K since March 2022)
  • Astral Chain - 1.33M (+50K)
  • Dr Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 1.27M (+70K)
  • Bayonetta (Switch) - 1.24M
  • Bayonetta 2 (Switch) - 1.23 (+190K)
  • Shin Megami Tensei V - 1.1M (+100K since April 2022)
  • Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 1.99M (+100K)
  • Miitopia - 1.79M (+110K since March 2022)

A few figures missing here (most of them from the thread, SSHD from discord):
  • BDSP - 15.06
  • Skyward Sword HD - 4.15
  • Big Brain Academy - 1.94
  • Game Builder Garage - 1.15
I should have all of the Switch titles accurated updated on my spreadsheet now. Will fill in the minor 3DS / Wii U updates when they are posted (or maybe a little after since it's pretty late over here).
 
Impressive legs for Tropical Freeze considering it's an anemic port that was barely marketed. It should surpass Donkey Kong Country 2 and Donkey Kong 64 by the end of next fiscal year. A new game can easily do >10m with the right marketing.
 
I would say a certain...other big fantasy franchise from another Japanese company should take notes, but I don't wanna derail the thread too much
 
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For a 6 year-old JRPG, Xenoblade Chronicles 2’s legs are utterly fantastic - it’ll be over 3M within a year or so at this rate!

Mario Maker 2 and Tropical Freeze continue to be the most “quiet” strong sellers, and I’m sure 2023 will be excellent for both of those games as well thanks to the Mario Movie effect.

Great to see Metroid Dread pass 3M - a first for the series!

FE Three Houses passing 4M is also incredible by series standards.

Switch has been so great for Nintendo first party IP growth!
 
A few figures missing here (most of them from the thread, SSHD from discord):
  • BDSP - 15.06
  • Skyward Sword HD - 4.15
  • Big Brain Academy - 1.94
  • Game Builder Garage - 1.15
I should have all of the Switch titles accurated updated on my spreadsheet now. Will fill in the minor 3DS / Wii U updates when they are posted (or maybe a little after since it's pretty late over here).
thanks, the post has been updated
 
Came for Metroid Dread and, for once, I wasn't let down. I can't wait to see Pikmin 4 on this chart in a couple of months!
 
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yeah, they never going back to traditional zelda lol. Who could blame them?
 
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Super happy to see Three Houses oficially cross the 4m mark! Its legs are pretty incredible too, I was expecting it to be just barely over 4m, but 4.12m?? That's great! I wonder if the game has enough juice left in the sales tank to leg it to 4.5m.

On a similar note, over on Install Base we got some updated 3ds numbers, and FE Echoes apparently reached 1m! That makes me incredibly happy lol, even more so than 3H hitting 4m. The sales numbers of both bode really well for the FE4 remake imo... assuming it exists lol.
 
There's something to the idea that certain games are big system sellers while other games are just massive software movers, and I think Wonder will move a ton of copies but won't really make a major impact on consoles sold like TOTK did.

Depends on what else there is to the game though. As of now it just looks like a really, really good 2D Mario, which is something that will resonate well with the current owners but I'm not sure how much more it'll bring in.
Agree. While im a mario fan, im not buying a console for a 2d one. 3D is a diff story
 
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There's something to the idea that certain games are big system sellers while other games are just massive software movers, and I think Wonder will move a ton of copies but won't really make a major impact on consoles sold like TOTK did.

Depends on what else there is to the game though. As of now it just looks like a really, really good 2D Mario, which is something that will resonate well with the current owners but I'm not sure how much more it'll bring in.
It's the first new Mario game since the movie, I think there will be a lot of kids getting their first console and first Mario game this holiday season.
 
Im so happy for dk tropical freeze selling so well on switch despite being a simple port which costs also 10 €/$ more than the wiiU original.
It's so sad to see that Nintendo is completely ignoring dk and not giving him a new game which would sell so so well on switch, I just don't get it. In the meantime we get so many Xenoblade and fire emblem games which are not selling that well.
Even Metroid and Pikmin got new games...Where is DK, Nintendo??
(Don't get me wrong, I don't wanna hate on other Nintendo franchises, I love Pikmin, Metroid and fire emblem). I just want a new DK game, please
 
more updated numbers from the 2023 CESA white paper, thanks to Kiria and CeroG1 from install base for posting them (link 1, link 2, link 3)

updated sales numbers as of December 31, 2022 (+sales since December 2021 unless noted):

  • Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl - 15.06M (+140K since September 2022)
  • Splatoon 2 - 13.60M (+300K since March 2022)
  • Super Mario Maker 2 - 8.42M (+530K )
  • The Legend of Zelda: Links Awakening - 6.46M (+380K)
  • Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 4.64M (+420K since March 2022)

Is there an archive / link to see the entire list?
 
  • The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD - 4.15M (+240K since March 2022)

I don't want to hear that there is no market for traditional 3D Zelda games ever again. For an HD remaster of a classic 3D Zelda game to do these kinds of numbers despite being one of the most divisive games in the series and a catalyst for Nintendo to move the series in a new direction, it shows that there is indeed an appetite for this kind of game.

On a similar note, this is just more evidence that linear games are still appealing to a certain niche of gamers, and Nintendo (and other publishers) would be wise to find a way to cater to them in a way that's still profitable.
 
Im so happy for dk tropical freeze selling so well on switch despite being a simple port which costs also 10 €/$ more than the wiiU original.
It's so sad to see that Nintendo is completely ignoring dk and not giving him a new game which would sell so so well on switch, I just don't get it. In the meantime we get so many Xenoblade and fire emblem games which are not selling that well.
Even Metroid and Pikmin got new games...Where is DK, Nintendo??
(Don't get me wrong, I don't wanna hate on other Nintendo franchises, I love Pikmin, Metroid and fire emblem). I just want a new DK game, please
DK unfortunately doesn’t have a dedicated team for it like Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, Kirby, etc., or an influential creator pushing for new games like Pikmin and Metroid (and keep in mind both of those series had long droughts as well). I imagine it is being worked on, it just doesn’t have the same support structure as other series to ensure it’s consistently being worked on.
 
Im so happy for dk tropical freeze selling so well on switch despite being a simple port which costs also 10 €/$ more than the wiiU original.
It's so sad to see that Nintendo is completely ignoring dk and not giving him a new game which would sell so so well on switch, I just don't get it. In the meantime we get so many Xenoblade and fire emblem games which are not selling that well.
Even Metroid and Pikmin got new games...Where is DK, Nintendo??
(Don't get me wrong, I don't wanna hate on other Nintendo franchises, I love Pikmin, Metroid and fire emblem). I just want a new DK game, please

I think the reason donkey Kong went on a hiatus again is because of how huge the drop is from DKCR.

DKCR did 4.2m first month, tropical freeze switch took years to get there.

They won't just do DKCR 3 since they've been down that road with DK before and the games just kept selling less. DK will appear again when they've got a new idea and probably not before.
 
I don't want to hear that there is no market for traditional 3D Zelda games ever again. For an HD remaster of a classic 3D Zelda game to do these kinds of numbers despite being one of the most divisive games in the series and a catalyst for Nintendo to move the series in a new direction, it shows that there is indeed an appetite for this kind of game.

On a similar note, this is just more evidence that linear games are still appealing to a certain niche of gamers, and Nintendo (and other publishers) would be wise to find a way to cater to them in a way that's still profitable.
There's a market for them... but look at the market for the other ones. Allocating the budget for a new traditional 3D Zelda probably isn't worth it to Nintendo at this moment, especially since even without the fully open world, they're still not resource-light games.

Think you'll have to make do with remakes and remasters for the time being.
 
DK unfortunately doesn’t have a dedicated team for it like Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, Kirby, etc., or an influential creator pushing for new games like Pikmin and Metroid (and keep in mind both of those series had long droughts as well). I imagine it is being worked on, it just doesn’t have the same support structure as other series to ensure it’s consistently being worked on.
if rumors and reports are to be believed, it has someone arguably more important than any of those as a first step: Miyamoto. he really wants it to come home. I think DK will find a team within EPD.

I don't want to hear that there is no market for traditional 3D Zelda games ever again. For an HD remaster of a classic 3D Zelda game to do these kinds of numbers despite being one of the most divisive games in the series and a catalyst for Nintendo to move the series in a new direction, it shows that there is indeed an appetite for this kind of game.

On a similar note, this is just more evidence that linear games are still appealing to a certain niche of gamers, and Nintendo (and other publishers) would be wise to find a way to cater to them in a way that's still profitable.
i agree there is still a market for them, but after today's news it's pretty clear that it's a much smaller market and not a priority anymore. i want another one too, but i think that's something we all need to make peace with. only so many classic 3D Zelda games to remaster, and i can't see resources being taken away from "open-air 3" to make another OOT thing.
 
I don't want to hear that there is no market for traditional 3D Zelda games ever again. For an HD remaster of a classic 3D Zelda game to do these kinds of numbers despite being one of the most divisive games in the series and a catalyst for Nintendo to move the series in a new direction, it shows that there is indeed an appetite for this kind of game.

On a similar note, this is just more evidence that linear games are still appealing to a certain niche of gamers, and Nintendo (and other publishers) would be wise to find a way to cater to them in a way that's still profitable.

There isn't a meaningful market. The 'traditional' games take practically as long to develop as the open air ones, for maybe a third of the sales potential, if everything went absolutely perfectly and they had a TP level hit. Despite being a newer release, it can't even keep pace with the equivalent 2d rerelease of the same series.

There's no point using development resources on them when they could be put towards a open air game, and an old style game would get absolutely lambasted if they tried outsourcing a new one, which is literally the only way it could happen at this point.

Hell, this is barely keeping pace with Age of calamity, to show how little demand there actually is.
 
There's no point wasting development resources on them when they could be put towards a open air game, and an old style game would get absolutely lambasted if they tried outsourcing a new one, which is literally the only way it could happen.
By that logic, why does Nintendo develop any games that are not Mario games, Animal Crossing, fitness games, or open air Zelda?
 
Damn, terrible legs for TOK compared every other Mario game on the Switch
 
I don't want to hear that there is no market for traditional 3D Zelda games ever again. For an HD remaster of a classic 3D Zelda game to do these kinds of numbers despite being one of the most divisive games in the series and a catalyst for Nintendo to move the series in a new direction, it shows that there is indeed an appetite for this kind of game.

On a similar note, this is just more evidence that linear games are still appealing to a certain niche of gamers, and Nintendo (and other publishers) would be wise to find a way to cater to them in a way that's still profitable.
Switch is a beast. A 10+ years port selling more than the original release is nuts.

That's why I keep saying when someone mentions BOTW is selling 3x over the best Zelda iteration due to changes they made is telling half of the story. All major Nintendo franchises got a 2~3x boost just by being on Switch. Of course kudos for BOTW to attract 10 ~ 15 million more people to the franchise. But a more traditional game with the same hype, great critical reception, and marketing as Twilight Princess could sell 18M in today's scenario.
 


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