Christo750
Source of the Right Arm
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
also it's pretty clear at this point, $70 games are here to stay. if people think it's worth it, they'll pay it.
Surely you’re just actively trolling about Paper Mario at this point.Damn, terrible legs for TOK compared every other Mario game on the Switch
just general sales trends. botw has sold 32.25M (switch + wii u combined), totk just sold 18.5 million in a month and a half. even tho botw is not done selling it's a very safe bet that totk will catch up. it's probably gonna be at like near 25 million by the end of this year, a successor to switch is nowhere in sight until late 2024 and even then there's no reason totk will stop selling.What is this assumption based on?
25 million is easy money. I even think we may hit that by end of october. once we hit the holiday season, it's game over.just general sales trends. botw has sold 32.25M (switch + wii u combined), totk just sold 18.5 million in a month and a half. even tho botw is not done selling it's a very safe bet that totk will catch up. it's probably gonna be at like near 25 million by the end of this year, a successor to switch is nowhere in sight until late 2024 and even then there's no reason totk will stop selling.
The point is that a traditional Zelda has a direct opportunity cost of another open air Zelda that will make 3x-4x the sales in roughly the same amount of development time. It’s one thing if they outsource a traditional game to another team, but from the standpoint of what the Zelda team should be putting their efforts into, it’s just way more financial sense for Nintendo to be directing them towards more open air games.By that logic, why does Nintendo develop any games that are not Mario games, Animal Crossing, fitness games, or open air Zelda?
Were Xenoblade 3 numbers updated? I don't think so?I've been pretty pessimistic about Xenoblade 3's performance in general ever since I finished the game but was not expecting it to still be behind DE at this point.
Maybe the DLC expansion will help a bit but damn.
yeah. with 18.5 million in 1.5 months, and additional 7 million for the remaining 6 months of the years is a very conservative estimate. we've already seen the weekly/monthly sales charts for july and the game is not slowing down.25 million is easy money. I even think we may hit that by end of october. once we hit the holiday season, it's game over.
…we don’t have any new XC3 numbers yet, so we can’t really say it’s behind DE. In fact, when you adjust for launch timing, XC3 is ahead of both DE and XC2 as of March 2023.I've been pretty pessimistic about Xenoblade 3's performance in general ever since I finished the game but was not expecting it to still be behind DE at this point.
Maybe the DLC expansion will help a bit but damn.
the latest number we have for 3 is 1.86 million as of march 2023, which puts it behind 2 (2.7M) and DE (1.88M), both as of december 2022. 3 will ofc surpass DE when we next get numbers for it.Were Xenoblade 3 numbers updated? I don't think so?
But what sales trends are you citing? What precedent do we have for an evergreen launch title to get a direct sequel released late in the consoles life, launch with roughly 55-60% of the original's sales, then go on to outsell it lifetime?just general sales trends. botw has sold 32.25M (switch + wii u combined), totk just sold 18.5 million in a month and a half. it's a very safe bet that it'll catch up. it's probably gonna be at like near 25 million by the end of this year, a successor to switch is nowhere in sight until late 2024 and even then there's no reason totk will stop selling.
Ah ok we are on the same page then. The legs on DE and 2 are pretty interesting at this stage. Sale prices plus the release of 3 must have helped.the latest number we have for 3 is 1.86 million as of march 2023, which puts it behind 2 (2.7M) and DE (1.88M), both as of december 2022. 3 will ofc surpass DE when we next get numbers for it.
18.5M was in 1.5 months but we know for a fact at least 10M of that was by day 3. I'd assume at least 15M was within the first month, probably more than that.yeah. with 18.5 million in 1.5 months, and additional 7 million for the remaining 6 months of the years is a very conservative estimate. we've already seen the weekly/monthly sales charts for july and the game is not slowing down.
The 10M was sell-through. So it took 3 days to 10M and 46 days to sell additional 5.7M.18.5M was in 1.5 months but we know for a fact at least 10M of that was by day 3. I'd assume at least 15M was within the first month, probably more than that.
It's hard to make extrapolations like this for games with huge openings, you need more data before you can confidently say the sales pace is still extremely high.
I mean TF was fucked releasing on the Wii U AND had a flurry of negative publicity because of the absolute whine fest that surrounded it and how "Retro NEEDED TO SAVE METROID AND THE WII U".I think the reason donkey Kong went on a hiatus again is because of how huge the drop is from DKCR.
DKCR did 4.2m first month, tropical freeze switch took years to get there.
They won't just do DKCR 3 since they've been down that road with DK before and the games just kept selling less. DK will appear again when they've got a new idea and probably not before.
Passing Zelda 1 would make it the best selling 2D game, which makes me happyLink's Awakening (2019) at 6.46 million is the real Classic Zelda sales story. Surely it's now overtaken Zelda (NES) and is the fifth best selling title in the series. March on, my favourite game.
I'm still upset we haven't gotten an original 2D Zelda on Switch. It's been four years since Link's Awakening...Link's Awakening (2019) at 6.46 million is the real Classic Zelda sales story. Surely it's now (with another 7 months of sales since the white papers update) overtaken Zelda (NES) and is the fifth best selling title in the series. March on, my favourite game.
It's got better legs then Sw/Sh in the same time frameAlso, damn Scarlet/Violet don't seem to have the legs people predicted. Which I'm not surprised by, nor do I have a horse in its race, but people predicted HUGE sales carrying over into 2023 and that doesn't seem to have been the case.
I think a big part of DKTF decline has simply to do with it being at the wrong place at the wrong time. It was relased on WiiU in a period when fans were expecting the "next-gen" Nintendo experience (the BOTW/Odissey moment), but instead Nintendo released a surplus of 2D platformers in a short span. Even the new 3D Mario of the time played and felt more similar to 2D titles. On Switch it was just treated as a complementary release with little to no marketing push (and it was still a full priced port). Basically, Nintendo did (unintentionally) everything in their power to make it flop.I think the reason donkey Kong went on a hiatus again is because of how huge the drop is from DKCR.
DKCR did 4.2m first month, tropical freeze switch took years to get there.
They won't just do DKCR 3 since they've been down that road with DK before and the games just kept selling less. DK will appear again when they've got a new idea and probably not before.
As you said, BOTW is still going to keep selling, so the number TOTK has to beat will be 35M at the least. If TOTK does end up reaching 25M by the end of this financial year, that's still a 10m shortfall is has to make up. If we presume that TOTK has the same kind of legs that BOTW enjoyed (averaging around 5M a year), that's going to take at least two years to catch up, during which we'll have a new console and new games hogging the spotlight and sales momentum.just general sales trends. botw has sold 32.25M (switch + wii u combined), totk just sold 18.5 million in a month and a half. even tho botw is not done selling it's a very safe bet that totk will catch up. it's probably gonna be at like near 25 million by the end of this year, a successor to switch is nowhere in sight until late 2024 and even then there's no reason totk will stop selling.
check out this threadIs there an archive / link to see the entire list?
They didn’t champion chibi robo, that was torturing chibi robo until it finally died without a chance of ever coming back.I think it's more likely DK went on "hiatus" because Retro didn't want to make a 3rd and Nintendo didn't have a producer/team with a unique idea to push for a new entry. We've seen many times with Nintendo that having the right team championing your ip is often more valuable then actually selling well, lets call it the Chibi-Robo theorem.
It will be at the 2024 CESA white paper. 2m is a lock.So no new Xenoblade 3 sales datas? I don't think it will hit the 2,0 but I still hope.
man it's really easy to tell which games some people are hoping to fail at times huh?
It gets funny when they have to twist themselves into knots trying to explain why the numbers are secretly a failure.man it's really easy to tell which games some people are hoping to fail at times huh?
Knowing what I know today, I would have paid 90 bucks for zelda ToTK easily.also it's pretty clear at this point, $70 games are here to stay. if people think it's worth it, they'll pay it.
We have data as of March 2023, 1.84 M.So no new Xenoblade 3 sales datas? I don't think it will hit the 2,0 but I still hope.
Just hypothetical, I have no data whatsoever to back this tbh, but wouldn't Nintendo be able to push hardware sales by creating Wonder-bundles or even a Wonder Special Edition OLED Switch? I have no idea how good these kind of editions sell but at least some hardcore fans will grab em. If priced correctly it might give hardware sales a push.There's something to the idea that certain games are big system sellers while other games are just massive software movers, and I think Wonder will move a ton of copies but won't really make a major impact on consoles sold like TOTK did.
Depends on what else there is to the game though. As of now it just looks like a really, really good 2D Mario, which is something that will resonate well with the current owners but I'm not sure how much more it'll bring in.
Calmos Zelda fans. Let's not compared 2 Zelda games selling amazing to all the Mario games selling amazing on the Switch cuz Link boy would get put in his place real quick. Mario fans have way more than just 2 must have games to choose from. BwuahahaJesus Christ.
The plumber should be thankful he has his karting pastime, because there’s genuinely a chance mainline Zelda has become a bigger juggernaut than mainline Mario.
Like… I don’t see Wonder outdoing this. It’s going to soar past Odyssey too, we haven’t even hit its first holiday.
You can’t even make the Wonder will outleg it argument, because BotW is an extremely leggy title
I don't think it has something to do with that. The WiiU was a huge flop and even mario 3d world only sold a bit over 5million(it also had the holiday boost and... it's mario). Tropical freeze on WiiU did a bit over 2 million (and it was pushed back from it's original holiday 2013 slot, which mario got).I think the reason donkey Kong went on a hiatus again is because of how huge the drop is from DKCR.
DKCR did 4.2m first month, tropical freeze switch took years to get there.
They won't just do DKCR 3 since they've been down that road with DK before and the games just kept selling less. DK will appear again when they've got a new idea and probably not before.
I really hope Miyamoto will show us a big budget DK gameif rumors and reports are to be believed, it has someone arguably more important than any of those as a first step: Miyamoto. he really wants it to come home. I think DK will find a team within EPD.
i agree there is still a market for them, but after today's news it's pretty clear that it's a much smaller market and not a priority anymore. i want another one too, but i think that's something we all need to make peace with. only so many classic 3D Zelda games to remaster, and i can't see resources being taken away from "open-air 3" to make another OOT thing.
It is pretty wild that it may end up that both Zeldas sell better than all the Mario games, including the mainline ones (other than Kart) though. Not cumulatively, of course, but that never would've been considered plausible before this gen.Calmos Zelda fans. Let's not compared 2 Zelda games selling amazing to all the Mario games selling amazing on the Switch cuz Link boy would get put in his place real quick. Mario fans have way more than just 2 must have games to choose from. Bwuahaha
i said the same thing when the issue of price came up in 2018. would've paid $100 for BOTW. would've paid $100 for TOTK.Knowing what I know today, I would have paid 90 bucks for zelda ToTK easily.
I wouldn’t pay that same cash for a single ps5 game. So Zelda can’t be the norm because it is a unicorn.