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Sales Data The Legend of Zelda Moves 10 Million Units in 3 Days; 2.24M Units in Japan, 4M Units in the Americas

kimbo99 said:
10Ms is a pretty crazy attach rate, especially this late in the lifecycle of the Switch. I wonder if the engine will be Nintendo's bread and butter for all AAA games moving forward
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This runs on the same engine as Switch Sports and Splatoon 3. So probably.
 
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boodream said:
However, it's not as if all the money from the film went to Nintendo. It's actually a reason to think that in the future, Nintendo may rely more on its new internal division than on outside partners for its adaptation projects. That said, I'm dubious about the artistic relevance of a Zelda adaptation, in any form whatsoever. But given the size of the license, they're going to do it.
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Yeah, i'm just measuring the revenues generated by both properties, so it would include the whole price. That's the 'value of the brand'.

Just realized Mario went on VOD today, so between not counting back catalog sales, hardware sales because of the movie and Zelda and VOD, $2 billion in 35ish days for Mario and Zelda is an extreme low ball, probably $2.5-3 billion would be more reasonable
 
Johna X said:
I'm a bit confused about the size and scaling of the Japanese game market reading this... like surely it's smaller then other markets but reading that BOTW only sold 3.5 mil where as rhythm heaven ds sold 2 mil in japan alone like what do games like DQ sell... I swear I'm not trying to just bring up RH, moreso just like to me this would imply games generally sell in the under a mil to 3 mil range in japan, which would make Japanese game sales far more consistent then overall like how much did MK8D sell for another example cause if 40 mil extra copies total means only like 3 mil extra in japan...
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Game Data Library is a great place to check old Japanese game sales (non-digital). This page by default shows the top 100 LTD. Until the DS, it was incredibly rare for anything to reach 4 million. But DS/PSP/3DS/Switch each added a few.
 
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Does my heart good seeing Nintendo thrive like this

So much of the industry is tied up with GaaS shit and AAA trend-chasing, and then EPD rolls up on their old-ass hardware with pristine game design and boundless creativity and look at 'em go. You love to see it.
 
Honestly, I'm starting to think even the next 3D Mario will be on the Switch, at the least cross-gen. The sales potential on a huge userbase is just way too good for games like this.
 
Tbone5189 said:
20mil by end of year? 30mil is more likely
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It would probably be a good idea to see the legs for a few weeks or a month or two before declaring that.

I've always pegged this as a very front loaded game, though the social media effect may help its legs more than expected.
 
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Deserves better. Not impressed with you lot.

RochHoch said:
Does my heart good seeing Nintendo thrive like this
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Specifically after playing this game I want more than anything for the efforts to be validated. They've spent more time on story/presentation here than any other game aside from perhaps Xenoblade, alongside packing the world with great meaningful side quests and characters, and it's really elevated what Zelda can be. Fujibayashi and Aonuma should be given carte blanche by the higher ups moving forward (if they haven't been already).
 
Just for shits and giggles, here are the domestic shares of total sales for some of the other Zelda games, taken from Game Data Library and Celine's data on Install Base:

Legend of Zelda - 25%
Zelda II - 36%
Link to the Past - 25%
Link's Awakening - 14%
Ocarina of Time - 15%
Majora's Mask - 18%
Oracle duology - 19%
Wind Waker - 17%
LttP/Four Swords GBA - 10%
Minish Cap - 13%
Twilight Princess - 7%
Phantom Hourglass - 19%
Spirit Tracks - 25%
Skyward Sword - 9%
Breath of the Wild - 12%

Considering that Spirit Tracks was overshipped and strongly discounted, if TotK's Japanese sales hold, it may be something of a sea change for Zelda's Japanese relevance.
 
Apopheniac said:
Just for shits and giggles, here are the domestic shares of total sales for some of the other Zelda games, taken from Game Data Library and Celine's data on Install Base:

Legend of Zelda - 25%
Zelda II - 36%
Link to the Past - 25%
Link's Awakening - 14%
Ocarina of Time - 15%
Majora's Mask - 18%
Oracle duology - 19%
Wind Waker - 17%
LttP/Four Swords GBA - 10%
Minish Cap - 13%
Twilight Princess - 7%
Phantom Hourglass - 19%
Spirit Tracks - 25%
Skyward Sword - 9%
Breath of the Wild - 12%

Considering that Spirit Tracks was overshipped and strongly discounted, if TotK's Japanese sales hold, it may be something of a sea change for Zelda's Japanese relevance.
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Twilight Princess being that low is crazy, even lower than SS. Wonder if the art style was a turn off for Japanese players.
 
Cucufate said:
Pictured: Koei Tecmo learning about this and trying to get a new Hyrule Warriors greenlit ASAP

giphy.gif
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Please. Age of Calamity was wonderful, one of my favourite Switch games and is actually my favourite Zelda game ever (not joking).
 
RingoGaSuki said:
Please. Age of Calamity was wonderful, one of my favourite Switch games and is actually my favourite Zelda game ever (not joking).
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It's not my favourite EVER, but I do love it. It gets unfair hate for what it isn't instead of appreciation for what it is I think.

I haven't played enough of TotK yet to know what characters and story a new HW could have. But I already know I want to play Hyrule Warriors: Age of Upheaval or whatever it would be called. I'm optimistic we could get an expanded Switch 2 rerelease of AoC with TotK stuff at least even if there's no sequel.
 
the crazy sales are gonna hold for like a long ass while too. the game absolutely exploded on all socials after a few days of launch, rest of the month's gonna be wild
 
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Just looking at my inner circle of friends, there were something like 10 people playing it on launch day. I've never seen something like this. For reference, I was the only one playing BOTW on launch day.
 
invwar said:
But as you can see, Zelda was NEVER a huge success in Japan, it's one of the few Japan developed Western franchises. So its a big success for Nintendo to finally also attract the masses in their local market.
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Zelda has had multiple million sellers in Japan before BOTW (TLOZ, Zelda 2, LTTP, OOT). Yes, it wasn't doing Dragon Quest or Pokemon numbers, but a million units in Japan is still a ton (especially considering how poorly the N64 sold in Japan).

It wasn't until the 21st century that Zelda began to significantly decline in Japan, but BOTW revitalized the franchise there.
 
Mekanos said:
Zelda has had multiple million sellers in Japan before BOTW (TLOZ, Zelda 2, LTTP, OOT). Yes, it wasn't doing Dragon Quest or Pokemon numbers, but a million units in Japan is still a ton (especially considering how poorly the N64 sold in Japan).

It wasn't until the 21st century that Zelda began to significantly decline in Japan, but BOTW revitalized the franchise there.
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I mean, the gap between OOT and BotW is 19 years. The gap between TLoZ and OOT is 14.

The series was on the outs for significantly longer than it was ever popular.
 
Mekanos said:
Twilight Princess being that low is crazy, even lower than SS. Wonder if the art style was a turn off for Japanese players.
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Keep in mind TP was the best-selling Zelda on its first run prior to BotW so the ratio is a bit misleading, it's just as much a case of Twilight Princess being very popular in the west. It sold less than Wind Waker in Japan but not absurdly less.
 
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kvetcha said:
I mean, the gap between OOT and BotW is 19 years. The gap between TLoZ and OOT is 14.

The series was on the outs for significantly longer than it was ever popular.
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That doesn't really have anything to do with the claim that "Zelda was never a huge success in Japan," though, which is empirically untrue.
 
Guaraná said:
after 40hs I can easily say that its the best game I've ever played.
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It's crazy that Breath of the Wild was my favorite game of all time until this one, and if someone now asks me which is better, Breath of the Wild or this one, I will reply that Tears of the Kingdom is the much better game.
 
So I got the last memory.

And now I'm crying like a damn baby. I saw it coming and it still cut like a knife. This game is something truly special; even when it hurts lol. [\spoiler]
 
sanstea said:
Honestly, I'm starting to think even the next 3D Mario will be on the Switch, at the least cross-gen. The sales potential on a huge userbase is just way too good for games like this.
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It's not like early games don't hit the high numbers too, it just takes them longer. Breath of the Wild didn't need to release to a 100+ million userbase to hit 30 million. Super Mario Odyssey has sold about twice as many copies as there were Switches at the time of its release.
 
frog said:
Imagine how much more it could have sold with good marketing...
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The marketing plan seemed good to me. By keeping things quiet it means it’s spreading through word of mouth across the wider market at the same time as it’s available to buy, rather than giving all the details ahead of time just to insatiable dedicated gamers who follow games media.
 
sanstea said:
Honestly, I'm starting to think even the next 3D Mario will be on the Switch, at the least cross-gen. The sales potential on a huge userbase is just way too good for games like this.
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Finally somebody agrees with me lol.
I don't really see a world where they saw Odyssey being the biggest ever 3D Mario success and thinking "oh well that's enough Mario for Switch" or that they started development on a game in ~2018ish already aiming at it being next gen exclusive. We had 2022 and 2023 games that started development after what 3D Mario probably did and are still Switch exclusive (Pikmin 3, Splatoon 3, post reboot MP4, maybe Xenoblade 3).

I believe it'll be the launch title cross gen game like BotW was for the Switch. Then, the big holiday title after that(if it comes in spring 2024, holiday 2024, if it's holiday 2024, then holiday 2025) will be a major exclusive, either Animal Crossing or Mario Kart(like Zelda being launch title and Mario first holiday title).
 
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JRPGHurtsWallet said:
Is this sarcasm or legitimate criticism? I really have no issue with the marketing of this game.
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there are people who the marketing sucked. personally, I think marketing should be judged by how effective it was at selling the game. anything else is just how much you liked the information that was being given, but that's not a measure of how effective marketing has been. and effectiveness is something we can measure
 
The marketing was good enough, everyone was able to know that the game was a sequel to BotW and the launch date. Aside from that, we were told about some of the main tools of the game. Nothing else was needed, and the 10 million units sold is the proof.

Sometimes is good to keep surprises, and unlike with BotW, this time they didn't need to convince us.
 
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ILikeFeet said:
While not "huge" Zelda has put up good numbers in recent history

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Botw really has launched the series into a new height in Japan! I think it also shows how important gameplay is to the Japanese audience, because dare I say the setting and characters haven't changed that drastically throughout the history of series. I'm really happy the Zelda finally got the recognition it deserves in its homeland.
 
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Every Switch title for which we have launch 3-day figures and launch quarter figures saw JP % share drop from 3-day to launch quarter. TOTK just had the smallest JP share of those big openers.

Launch quarter figures are going to be gigantic. Below is what I posted at IB.

JP tends to be more upfront with these big Nintendo launches in the last few years, even in 3-day vs 1st Q comparisons, so this being less JP centric than their other big launches would change the picture a bit right?

kchmNAy.png


*ACNH assumed to have launched at 7M
*SSBU assumed to have had 20% JP Digital Share for 3-Day launch

Launch Q shipment for the above has consistently seen non-JP numbers grow by a larger amount from weekend>quarter than in JP. Smallest multiplier delta between territories was PLA (maybe my Japan figure is wrong though...did it do 2M in JP at launch @Lelouch0612 @Hiska-kun or am I misremembering)?

Range I expect for TOTK is the following:

JP will do 1.5-1.9x of its launch 3-day
OS will do 2.0-2.5x of its launch 3-day

Which puts 1st Q range at 18.8M - 23.7M.

Expecting JP to slip to 18% for launch quarter. 17M at 18% would mean 3,060,000. Current shipments + digital using high-end Famitsu's 60-80% sell-through range suggests JP shipments are already ~2.5M, so only 560,000 more shipments+digital sales in the following 7 weeks seems impossible. At 21M and 18%, it'd be 1,280,000 more shipments which seems a lot more feasible (3-350K of that will be probably knocked out this week with physical alone).
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