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News Officially from Nintendo: Annoucement of next console this FY, Direct In June (no Switch 2 at direct)

Galgavias said:
I really think people need to temper their expectations around a September reveal. As I said earlier, that would completely wreck their holiday sales momentum, and they're aiming to sell a lot of Switch units this year.

Let's see what the situation is after the June Direct, because if they have some heavy hitters planned for later this year, they won't want to sabotage their own products by overshadowing them with a new console reveal.
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A presentation in January and a release in March would make a lot of sense.
 
Galgavias said:
I really think people need to temper their expectations around a September reveal. As I said earlier, that would completely wreck their holiday sales momentum, and they're aiming to sell a lot of Switch units this year.

Let's see what the situation is after the June Direct, because if they have some heavy hitters planned for later this year, they won't want to sabotage their own products by overshadowing them with a new console reveal.
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I don't know - given the cut to profitability that they're forecasting, it looks to me like they're gunning for those sales through price drops and bundles, and aiming for a market that's not going to be looking at Switch 2 regardless of when they announce it.
 
ILikeFeet said:
kinda funny seeing people immediately jump on the "after March" train despite the March "delay" still not moving
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yeah this announcement of an announcement is about a month out from when we saw the original Switch being announced to be announced in 2016 for 2017 (April vs May) - assuming the Switch shows up late March rather than early March that probably makes sense, and there is no reason to suspect any dramatic shift beyond March next year
 
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We all knew that Switch wasn’t coming this year but what we didn’t know was if we would have another Switch 1 direct or any first party releases after Luigi’s mansion.
I’m now 99.9% that we are going to see Prime 4 next month!
 
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Looking forward to that Nintendo direct next month, curious to see what they got, some wacky and experimental stuff we tend to get at this point tends to be fun.
 
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Brazil said:
Alright - here's the video in English!

Hope that helps, and apologies for the accent.

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Thank you so much for this!

Don't apologize for the accent! Perfect!

  • More remasters expected to be revealed for Switch. I'm looking at you WWHD/TPHD
  • Last dedicated Direct for Switch. I feel this pretty much guarantees a fall reveal. October would be my guess.
  • January blowout and March launch. Pretty aligned with original Switch series of events.

EDIT: In regards to MP4, I do feel the June Direct is the time and place.
 
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Alright. So a fall reveal. Hopefully Nintendo lets 3rd party devs announce their games beforehand and just say "coming to the Switch Successor" or whatever lmao.

spekkeh said:
Reveal around October would crater their sales in Nintendo's most important two months though (it didn't matter with the Switch since Wii U was effectively off life support anyway). If this is the issue then don't expect a presentation until January (or, given that January is an important month in Japan, February).
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stop this.
 
HOLY SHIT LET'S GOOOOOOO

first look:

2rBbwrJ.png
 
something else that gets me excited for switch 2 reveal trailer is that there are decent chances to have our first glimpse at one or two brand new first party games such as the next 3D mario (or mario kart??)
 
Dwebble said:
I don't know - given the cut to profitability that they're forecasting, it looks to me like they're gunning for those sales through price drops and bundles, and aiming for a market that's not going to be looking at Switch 2 regardless of when they announce it.
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That can be possibly explained by the fact they'll likely be prepping to mass manufacture their new console, which will cost them a lot. Might be another reason why they're riding out the Switch 1 for a bit longer, so they take less of a big hit before the successor launches.

Who knows, but I think the June Direct will tell us what their plans are. If it's filled with some heavy hitters, then we're waiting another year for Switch 2. If it's port central, then we could see it by the end of the fiscal year
 
spekkeh said:
Reveal around October would crater their sales in Nintendo's most important two months though (it didn't matter with the Switch since Wii U was effectively off life support anyway). If this is the issue then don't expect a presentation until January (or, given that January is an important month in Japan, February).
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A price cut would mitigate that somewhat, especially among families with young children who have no interest in getting the next-gen Switch at launch.
 
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Brazil said:
Alright - here's the video in English!

Hope that helps, and apologies for the accent.

Click to expand...

No one should ever feel like they have to apologize for having an accent. You can speak more than one language, that’s freaking awesome. And it’s a hell of a lot more than any random American can say about themselves, me included.
 
It's been close to ten hours now and I still can't believe the confirmation of the console actually happened today... I'm over the moon!! I took a short nap before the results were posted and I haven't been able to sleep since because it's just really exciting AHHH!!
 
I’ve been skeptical they’d show anything this year if it’s not going to launch this year. It would rob Switch 1 of its last holiday quarter (which is double the revenue of any other quarter) and on its face not be a savvy business decision. See: Osborne Effect.

BUT it all depends on what they’re competing with. Showing it this year without hardware to sell could be a strategy to discourage existing switch owners to wander over to PS5 Pro or new Xbox hardware - “Don’t buy a PS5 pro this year, save your money to play new Mario on Switch 2 early next year. Look at how great it looks!”

They can then price drop Switch 1 and lite to squeeze out one last holiday. It’ll sell to families who want something now and have the next gen audience waiting patiently for their $400+ Switch 2
 
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Adulfzen said:
something else that gets me excited for switch 2 reveal trailer is that there are decent chances to have our first glimpse at one or two brand new first party games such as the next 3D mario (or mario kart??)
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Oh I'm sure Mario Kart gets in on the reveal trailer. Just picture a family on a couch playing it lmao. Or maybe they do the party of young adults bit again haha.
 
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I need salt for my crow, or taco bell fire sauce.

Now, the real wait begins! But at least I got this scrumptious birdo
 
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With that many eyes on just this tweet.... is it going to be hard to get this thing at launch lol?

26.7 million views
 
I think part of the reason this year has been weird and quiet for nintendo is because according to some financially-leaning news outlets in japan (think japanese bloomberg), have been reporting that the switch 2 would have been ready to launch this year and it's not a hardware or software issue but a strategic delay to wait for the yen to recover from where it is now.

so there's kind of a bottleneck this year because there's like three more months than they thought there would be a year or two ago that they have to tide consumers over on switch 1.
 
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I wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of "coming to Xbox, PS5 and the next Nintendo platform" from third parties this summer. Monster Hunter Wilds is a prime example as the early trailer certainly looks like a Switch 2 game and the marketing cycle for it is supposed to start this summer.
 
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I do want to preface this by saying I'm not a marketing expert or anything, just a huge fan of Nintendo haha!

I was thinking about this earlier but I wonder if, when the announcement does happen, if it'll be a little more grander in scale compared to what they did with the Nintendo Switch. I'm not saying they'll reveal it in a presentation but I feel like the Switch's reveal did benefit from the fact that people knew what Breath of the Wild was through Wii U demos and a number of different trailers and videos. This helped, in my opinion, really solidify it as the perfect launch title for the Switch. I do wonder now if the successor's announcement does come with not just a trailer for the console but also an announcement trailer for the main launch game (I believe the consensus is a new 3D Mario). I just can't really see them doing the same thing they did with Odyssey where it was in the First Look trailer for a couple of seconds and then they fully announced it at the Nintendo Switch Presentation in January 2017. I just feel like that might be too short of a marketing push for the game if it's only around two months of full-on marketing, especially being the launch title.

For me, I feel like they can either do this or maybe making the marketing cycle for the console slightly longer so that they can have the console's first look, an early presentation (maybe November), a Direct in February, and then the console's launch. I guess it also does depend on what the launch title is because, if it's by chance Metroid Prime 4, they could easily start the marketing for that in June with the General Direct as a Switch 1 title that in September/October they use as a showstopping piece for the new hardware. :)
 
I think they should have announced earlier in this year, would have avoided all the anxiety and uncertainty by keeping this silent so far. Well... here we go.
 
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Wow, we got a Direct announcement a month in advance

Literally just an admission of "I'm sorry this year fucking sucks, but we do have games this year, I swear"
 
RochHoch said:
Wow, we got a Direct announcement a month in advance

Literally just an admission of "I'm sorry this year fucking sucks, but we do have games this year, I swear"
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as a replacement for E3, it's not unusual for there to be an early announcement of a June showing
 
spekkeh said:
Reveal around October would crater their sales in Nintendo's most important two months though (it didn't matter with the Switch since Wii U was effectively off life support anyway). If this is the issue then don't expect a presentation until January (or, given that January is an important month in Japan, February).
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it's gonna happen at some point - they have to rip off the bandaid (and I'd argue with this announcement they have ripped off that bandaid) - you need to have time to get the press/information out that you need.

They aren't going to hobble the Switch 2's launch which is WAY more important to them than wringing out a few more sales for the original Switch by rushing all the marketing for the new console between January and March.

There will be press beats planned for at least 6 months leading up to launch for such a major product (Oct-Mar most likely). Switch 2 being a success is way more of a priority to them, the system certainly wasn't delayed to sell more Switches.
 
It's been nearly 8 years of the Switch with sales already taking a downturn, yes this isn't the Wii U, but I think they can afford to take a hit on the holiday sales with a Switch 2 announcement which will matter more in generating the right momentum to the console's release. And keep in mind - the 3DS was still active when the Switch was announced, so Nintendo were willing to give up a portion of that system's winter sales.

And I'm skeptical of how many people there are that haven't bought a Switch in nearly eight years, that would've bought one this holiday, but would choose to hold out because a Switch 2 was announced. Who knows if a Switch 2 announcement would even convince that many people to wait. The Switch by itself remains an appealing console with a ton of games, with a $200 (Lite) -$350 pricepoint vs. the speculated $350-$450 of the Switch 2. Even in the first two years of the Switch 2, I'd expect the Switch to sell as a cheaper option, until there is a Switch 2 Lite or something similar.
 
Serif said:
And I'm skeptical of how many people there are that haven't bought a Switch in nearly eight years, that would've bought one this holiday, but would choose to hold out because a Switch 2 was announced.
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If these people exist, it's to Nintendo's benefit that they hold out and buy a Switch 2 later anyway. Someone who waited 8 years isn't going to be an early adopter of the Switch 2 right after buying a Switch 1, and a Switch 2 owner is much more likely to make consistent purchases in 2025 onwards than a Switch 1 owner.
 
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spekkeh said:
Everything is possible, but I'm pretty sure they've never released a console/handheld without it being in the FY guidance of that year, so April 2025 at the earliest.

In fact, given that they don't expect Switch 1 sales to fall off a cliff, it's likely considerably far away from the 2024 holiday period, so more likely fall 2025.

I'm very disappoint. My launch Switch battery is dead and so is the lineup.
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The 2016 earnings report makes no mention of Switch forecasts for 2017 despite it launching in March so there's the precedent.

I think they'll have something like a price cut to drive sales this year.
 
If it's launching by March 2025, then it will be a reveal before the holidays. I can't see a sub 3 month marketing cycle, it will be short but not that short.

Also, I don't buy the 'revealing before Xmas will crater sales' arguments.
Software wise, all they need is to assure people of full BC and potential upgrades and people can buy games on old Switch knowing once they transfer over, it's all fully compatible.

Hardware wise, they've already sold 141+ million Switches, the people buying this year will be a completely different demographics. I expect deals /bundles/ price cuts to entice people to buy, but announcing a more powerful console that's likely $100 more is not going to crater sales.
 
The tweet states that they will 'make an announcement about the successor to Nintendo Switch'. This wording does not necessarily mean they will announce it. It also gives them wiggle room to say, for example, that the successor will be delayed further or that it will be digital-only, or something else.
Although the following statement specifically referring to the Switch's prelaunch announcements does imply that a similar topic will be covered.
 
Pennington said:
The tweet states that they will 'make an announcement about the successor to Nintendo Switch'. This wording does not necessarily mean they will announce it.
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' "Make an announcement about successor" --> "wording does not mean they will announce it" '

Do you mean "reveal" it visually? I'm confused. They said they will make an announcement.
 
If they weren't confident they could make a formal announcement of the console this fiscal year, they could have said nothing.
 
Yeah, at this point naysaying feels like blind pessimism rather than cautious optimism.

The thing is getting revealed later this year. Launch is likely March 2025, could be later but I'm still betting on March 2025. Remember, Midori (a supposedly reliable tier-1 leaker) said March 2025 as well.
 
Brazil said:
Alright - here's the video in English!

Hope that helps, and apologies for the accent.

Click to expand...


Tesouro nacional!

You absolutely deserve an ever growing audience, so I hope you keep making videos in english. Good luck, man!
 
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VintoWin said:
Yeah, at this point naysaying feels like blind pessimism rather than cautious optimism.

The thing is getting revealed later this year. Launch is likely March 2025, could be later but I'm still betting on March 2025. Remember, Midori (a supposedly reliable tier-1 leaker) said March 2025 as well.
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supposedly the delay news to third parties can suddenly and relatively recently. so this announcement and the delay was planned around the same time. no reason to think the March date is outdated already
 
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Adulfzen said:
something else that gets me excited for switch 2 reveal trailer is that there are decent chances to have our first glimpse at one or two brand new first party games such as the next 3D mario (or mario kart??)
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Would your excitement be diminished at all if the next 3D Mario and Mario Kart will also be playable on the Switch Lite and Switch OLED?
 
Raccoon said:
it seems squarely opposite their stated goal of new hardware enabling new experiences
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It's not as if there isn't a precedent for that. Sony took a very similar stance, only to follow it up with a very prolonged period of cross-generation support for their biggest games.

Granted, Sony is also in a perpetual competition with Microsoft to shoot themselves in the foot as many times as they possibly can. And while Microsoft might have had the upper hand in that competition for the better part of the past 20 years, Sony is certainly trying their best. I doubt Nintendo has much intention of joining that particular competition.
 
Raccoon said:
why are you so confident that they'd do this

it seems squarely opposite their stated goal of new hardware enabling new experiences
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Frankly put, it's extremely unlikely that if the hardware is so iterative as people are asking for, that the newer games would have any "new experiences" that couldn't feasibly be scaled down. We're so far beyond the age where the power differences alone enable easy meaningful differences to the types of games Nintendo make that you'd see in the early years of a consoles life, that they wouldn't be hurt by being cross gen.

Something like TOTK couldn't have been cross gen because no doubt it's already pushing the Switch hardware, but there's also zero chance you get anything like TOTK in the first years of nay console because it's the kind of game that would require years of work knowing exactly what the hardware is capable of and designing around it.

I don't think Mario kart will be cross gen, but I also would put money down on that 100% being a business decision and not one driven by technical limits at all.
 
Hardware limitations cause pretty dramatic changes in visual approach and game design.

As an example, I would be pretty surprised if Metroid Prime 4 had large areas or dynamic lights because their current visual approach seems to rely heavily on baked global illumination, something that does not scale well to larger areas.

Reflective surfaces are also less common in a lot of games than you would expect because reflections in games are so expensive or really bad.

This is why tacked on ray tracing is so pointless and bad. Ray tracing is used to solve dynamic global illumination problems and reflection problems that are horrible with other methods. The issue with just tacking on ray tracing to an existing game is that they already designed the game to minimize the amount of reflections and dynamic global illumination situations.
 
I think the stock price decline is due to Nintendo's forecast of the net profit -40% for the next fiscal year
 
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