I had an updated one in the Direct speculation thread, but from way back in November, my last stab here at this was:
Happy I got Fire Emblem right, an HD-2D game right, that Pikmin 4 exists, and was only one month off for BOTW 2. We know more now so let’s go with:
January: Fire Emblem Engage
February: Octopath Traveler II and Kirby RTD
March: Metroid Prime HD and Xenoblade Wave 3 DLC
April: Mario Movie, Mario Kart Wave 4, and New Mario Platformer
May: Zelda TK and Gen 2 Switch
June: F-Zero GX HD and New Mario Sports Game
July: Detective Pikachu 2, Dragon Quest III 2D-HD, and Everybody 1-2 Switch
August: Mario Kart Wave 5 and Advance Wars 1+2
September: Xenoblade 3 expansion and New Donkey Kong game
October: Pikmin 4 and Fortune Street
November: Metroid Prime 4 and Pokemon SV DLC
December: Mario Kart Wave 6 and Zelda TK DLC 1 out of 2
I’m still torn where I’d put the next three platformers, 2D Mario, 3D Mario, and DK. I’m also torn on if Metroid Prime 4 will make it or not. We’ll definitely see it next year, I’m not worried about that, but Prime HD not making the cut this year suggests to me Prime 4 is 2024. I still want to believe for now it is the holiday game. It’s time is coming soon. I don’t know where Everybody 1-2 Switch and Advance Wars will pop up for very different reasons so I dumped them in the Summer.
Pretty close with Metroid Prime HD and Xenoblade Wave 3, but Bayonetta Origins snuck in there out of left field. Pikmin I'm very glad I was way off with. I know I bumped Advance Wars up to April in the Direct thread so glad I got that one. Everybody 1-2 Switch I was rolling with for March in the same thread and hmm torn on that one now, but it's still plausible to me if it wasn't canceled. Here's what I'll go with now:
January:
Fire Emblem Engage
February:
Metroid Prime HD, Octopath Traveler II, and
Kirby RTD
March
Bayonetta Origins and Everybody 1-2 Switch (if it wasn't canceled this and June are its last chances)
April M
ario Movie, Mario Kart Wave 4, and
Advance Wars
May:
Zelda TK
June: Detective Pikachu 2 and BoxBoxBoy + BoxBoxGirl!
July:
Pikmin 4 and Dragon Quest III HD-2D
August: Mario Kart Wave 5, Xenoblade Wave 4, and Baten Kaitos
September: 2D Mario and Splatoon Side Order
October: F-Zero GX HD and Fortune Street
November: Metroid Prime 4 and Pokemon SV DLC
December: Mario Kart Wave 6 and Zelda TK DLC 1
The tricky ones to play with for me are the JRPGs. I believe Dragon Quest III HD-2D is ultimately a Switch exclusive so I plugged it into the Live A Live spot. But that leaves Xenoblade and Baten Kaitos floating. I think they'll want to have some distance between both Zelda and Final Fantasy XVI so Xenoblade Wave 4 won't be in May or June. July I threw Dragon Quest in which I think they'll be not wanting to step on too much even though Live A Live and Xenoblade 3 were both in the same month. My thinking here then though is Mario Kart Wave 5 won't hold the month by itself, but that leaves it brushing up against Baten Kaitos which does have a Summer Window which means the latest it could be is September which seems good to spread it out...
BUT WAIT! With Mario not hitting in June as he was supposed to and my strong belief / desire for Fortune Street to manifest in October, that leaves 2D Mario in September taking the Splatoon slot of last year. 2D Mario is an evergreen you want out ahead of the holiday so boom there it goes in September now and everything else exists around it. That's why Baten Kaitos will be in August and why F-Zero GX hits in October. F-Zero GX must stay far away from Mario Kart DLC Waves and must hit in either June or October. It clearly ain't June, so it gets the hardcore October spot.
Finally then the holiday game. Unless there is a Prime 2 HD and a Prime 3 HD, I think the shadow drop of Prime HD suggests it's finally Metroid Prime 4 time in November as the big holiday game. DK gets moved to early 2024.