Discussion How much do you think Metroid Prime Remastered will sell?

[Magic-Man]

Wow, it's still Number 1 on the e-shop despite Kirby. That's pretty surprising. It feels like Metroid completely stole the hype from Kirby, and now it has no competition for another few weeks (Bayonetta Origins). We might be looking at a record breaking Metroid game.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

Wow, it's still Number 1 on the e-shop despite Kirby. That's pretty surprising. It feels like Metroid completely stole the hype from Kirby, and now it has no competition for another few weeks (Bayonetta Origins). We might be looking at a record breaking Metroid game.

It's worth noting though that the difference in sales between Metroid and Kirby in the West, was probably never that big pre-Switch, at least for well selling Metroid title. So this doesn't necessarily mean Metroid is selling a lot better than Kirby. It could just be Metroid gaining a slight lead.

At this point it's safe to assume that the remaster has sold well. As well as people are probably thinking? Not a safe assumption yet id say.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

It's worth noting though that the difference in sales between Metroid and Kirby in the West, was probably never that big pre-Switch, at least for well selling Metroid title. So this doesn't necessarily mean Metroid is selling a lot better than Kirby. It could just be Metroid gaining a slight lead.

At this point it's safe to assume that the remaster has sold well. As well as people are probably thinking? Not a safe assumption yet id say.

It probably sold fine, but it's an old style Kirby remaster at full price, as the next major release after the series got a much needed reinvention.

Like skyward sword hd, there's only so much you can do to polish it up when the major demand is being sapped away elsewhere.

 

[Rampo360]

At this point, I'm starting to believe MPR will sell better than Metroid Dread.

It's doable. Better price and 3D. People were like "Dread looks good but 60$ for a 2D game??".

I think over 5 million, the fact that you cant find physical copies. It tells something.

It tells us Nintendo printed 250.000 copies and have now ordered another 250.000

But seriously I hope it's more than a couple of millions but 5 would be huge!

 

[Leo]

I changed my vote to 3-4m. I think it will outsell Dread by a small margin.

 

[Mer.Saloon]

I still have my doubts about this game even going past 2 million. Dread may have only just barely got to the 3 Million mark at the height of the Switch's life, and then here comes Prime near the end of its life with a pretty low key release. And the trends may be good now, but who's to say how long this will keep going.

I'd love to be wrong, but I was wrong about Dread quickly going past 3+ Mill so I can wait. I really want to be wrong, and I want Metroid to finally go up there with the big sellers.

It's doable. Better price and 3D. People were like "Dread looks good but 60$ for a 2D game??".

That argument only goes so far when this had so much less to offer than Dread at the same price.

 

[IronTed]

It's worth noting though that the difference in sales between Metroid and Kirby in the West, was probably never that big pre-Switch, at least for well selling Metroid title. So this doesn't necessarily mean Metroid is selling a lot better than Kirby. It could just be Metroid gaining a slight lead.

At this point it's safe to assume that the remaster has sold well. As well as people are probably thinking? Not a safe assumption yet id say.

Yeah the 5 million takes remind me of when Dread came out. Some people got caught in the hype and thought it would do that much too. Of course it didn't get close but it's not like that matters. But tbf MPR is literally doing as good as you can expect (charting number 1 on eshop in its strongest countries, selling out physically), so all we can really tell right now is its floor. I'm sticking to my 2-3 million prediction.

 

[Mr Doggo]

I still have my doubts about this game even going past 2 million. Dread may have only just barely got to the 3 Million mark at the height of the Switch's life, and then here comes Prime near the end of its life with a pretty low key release. And the trends may be good now, but who's to say how long this will keep going.

I'd love to be wrong, but I was wrong about Dread quickly going past 3+ Mill so I can wait. I really want to be wrong, and I want Metroid to finally go up there with the big sellers.


That argument only goes so far when this had so much less to offer than Dread at the same price.

i like how quick people are to disregard dread's sales.

Prime 4 could sell 10 million copies and people would just say "well that's not even half of BOTW!"

 

[Mer.Saloon]

i like how quick people are to disregard dread's sales.

Prime 4 could sell 10 million copies and people would just say "well that's not even half of BOTW!"

I like how you're generalizing.

Anyways, he's the one saying it will sell better than Dread because it's 3D and cheaper. I was saying price and perspective only go so far in determining sales. I'm not saying there's any one reason why Dread only got to 3 Million, there could be many others.

 

[Starbreaker]

It will sell more than Dread. Book it.

 

[Marce-chan]

Are there sales numbers from the first week of physical sales in Japan yet?

 

[AngryAlchemist]

I'd love to be wrong, but I was wrong about Dread quickly going past 3+ Mill so I can wait. I really want to be wrong, and I want Metroid to finally go up there with the big sellers.

I mean, as much as I'll admit I wanted Metroid Dread to sell even faster than it did, beating every game in the series in less than half a year is pretty quick? That 3 mil figure is going to be with about ~6 months of tracking. Really not that bad.

That argument only goes so far when this had so much less to offer than Dread at the same price.

The audience isn't the same. A lot of people who buy 2D Mario are casual gamers or people who are into Nintendo for heavy hitters / surface level IP (this sounds so gatekeepy but I swear I don't mean it that way, you get what I mean). Those weren't the people complaining about a 2D game being $60, they're the people who enter a Walmart for a gallon of milk and leave with a copy of NSMBUDX and MK8D.

It's just not really comparable to Metroid's main draw - which is the core gamers. Core gamers love to complain all the time about games not being worth their value because their short and maybe required less budget. Doesn't matter if it's the best game of all time, if it's 2D and sub 10 hours they'll be livid.

 

[Mr Doggo]

Are there sales numbers from the first week of physical sales in Japan yet?

i havent seen anything although i also havent checked lmao.

I predict lower sales than dread in japan, opening will probably be 40k to 60k at best (vs dread's 86k) which doesnt matters since its japan and not america - but observe how there will be users who will run with it and create a narrative that the game is a failure (even after american and european sales revealed, those are the worst ones)

 

[IronTed]

Given that the best selling 3D Metroid game in Japan sold like 90k, I can't see MPR getting anywhere near that physically. Maybe with digital it can be in that ballpark.

 

[Mr Doggo]

Given that the best selling 3D Metroid game in Japan sold like 90k, I can't see MPR getting anywhere near that physically. Maybe with digital it can be in that ballpark.

to be honest the last 3d metroid game released in a console that didn't have any sort way of selling digital games...

oh yeah there was FF but that sold like 10k in japan lmao.

 

[MeatheadSamus]

Prime will get like 20k physical--no way they do that well given scarcity. Nobody in Japan cares enough to go desperately hunting to find a copy. They'd just go buy digital if they cared enough, and I don't think enough care enough period.

 

[Joe]

How is it still #1 on the US eShop 3 weeks later?? That's amazing!

 

[Mr Doggo]

How is it still #1 on the US eShop 3 weeks later?? That's amazing!

well ackchually japan is the only one that counts therefore metroid is doomed

 

[Eddy]

I predict/hope Dread should be at 3.5 million by December 31, 2022.
I still cannot find a copy of MP1 Remastered

 

[Mr Doggo]

I predict/hope Dread should be at 3.5 million by December 31, 2022.
I still cannot find a copy of MP1 Remastered

i hope too. 3.5 million by 2022 would probably mean a lifetime of... 4.5 million copies which would be mindblowing. Depending on how metroid 6 went it could sell 6 million. We shall see.

 

[Mr Doggo]

Honestly that kinda bothers me, Dread was a complete new game and it didn't get half of what nintendo has been doing with this. Favoritism?

 

[Leo]

Honestly that kinda bothers me, Dread was a complete new game and it didn't get half of what nintendo has been doing with this. Favoritism?

NSO icons weren't a thing when Dread came out, were they?

Dread got everything Nintendo could possibly give it, including lots of advertising, a demo, and releasing along with new hardware. In comparison, Prime Remastered's campaign is pretty subtle.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Are there sales numbers from the first week of physical sales in Japan yet?

won't be counted because it wasn't out yet

 

[Zeal543]

Honestly that kinda bothers me, Dread was a complete new game and it didn't get half of what nintendo has been doing with this. Favoritism?

excellent, meta ridley will look wonderful with the uraya/mechonis sword background

Edit: aw what the fuck Nintendo can't combine series for the icon?

 

[afternoon delight]

How is it still #1 on the US eShop 3 weeks later?? That's amazing!

This honestly with news of restocks and demand is just wild and wonderful to see.

 

[Marce-chan]

https://mynintendonews.com/2023/03/06/uk-charts-metroid-prime-remastered-enters-at-no-2/

Metroid Prime Remastered was number 2 this week on the UK physical only, with digital probably being way bigger.

The second biggest launch of the year there, surpassing Fire Emblem Engage and Dead Space Remake(both of which the physical versions didn't come 2 weeks after the game).

It was surpassed by the terf game by only one thousand of units, and knowing how that terf IP is big there and with that game being #1 since its release, we can presume it sold pretty big.

All the signs for it are better than it's ever been. The game will sell greatly.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

https://mynintendonews.com/2023/03/06/uk-charts-metroid-prime-remastered-enters-at-no-2/

It sucks that Nintendo'a limited release strategy is going to make it harder to estimate how well it sells based off physical units.

 

[Zeal543]

It sucks that Nintendo'a limited release strategy is going to make it harder to estimate how well it sells based off physical units.

Well we'll have a clear image next quarterly report

 

[ethanswift]

I am thinking less than Xenoblade 3 would sell.

 

[Reinhard Schneider]

I won't make estimates, but i can say that along with Dread will sell well enough to put the series on Nintendo's radar again.

We may very well see a sequel to Dread early on the succ's life.

 

[Mr Doggo]

I am thinking less than Xenoblade 3 would sell.

wow metroid is doomed then imagine selling less than a xeno game

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

Honestly based on some of the data we've already got I wouldn't be surprised if it not only outsells the original version but dread as well at this point (that $40 is doing a lot of the heavy lifting imo)

 

[ethanswift]

wow metroid is doomed then imagine selling less than a xeno game

actually, it's pure assumption and that's the beauty of this thread.
to address my assumption, I'd like to add that both metroid and xenoblade have no legs in Switch era.
How well they perform at launch, then most possibly how well they'll end in the end.
With Xenoblade 3 has more marketing time & coming story DLC, and sure people could argue MPR's shadow drop is hype, reviews mighty & price advantage as well as may get continuous marketing support before MP4, yet I am still thinking MPR will less than XC3.
Don't get me wrong. I am a huge metroid fan now, prefer metroid to xenoblade for sure.
After seeing dread had difficulty hitting 3 million, it's really a hard pill to swallow and what a punch to the gut.
And for any famil who see this comment and haven't purchase your copy of MPR, I strongly recommend this game to you.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

actually, it's pure assumption and that's the beauty of this thread.
to address my assumption, I'd like to add that both metroid and xenoblade have no legs in Switch era.
How well they perform at launch, then most possibly how well they'll end in the end.
With Xenoblade 3 has more marketing time & coming story DLC, and sure people could argue MPR's shadow drop is hype, reviews mighty & price advantage as well as may get continuous marketing support before MP4, yet I am still thinking MPR will less than XC3.
Don't get me wrong. I am a huge metroid fan now, prefer metroid to xenoblade for sure.
After seeing dread had difficulty hitting 3 million, it's really a hard pill to swallow and what a punch to the gut.
And for any famil who see this comment and haven't purchase your copy of MPR, I strongly recommend this game to you.

Despite my initial guess of 1-2m, It's extremely unlikely that the game can't get over xenoblade easily with how long it's been #1 in the eshop charts. Unless software sales for everything else have completely collapsed.

 

[Rampo360]

I think I overestimated at 3-4M, I don't see Europe so hot about it. Shame. Ninendo tried with the unexpectedly aggressive pricing. Not sure about the shadow drop thing though.

PS: It won't sell less than Xeno 3. Xenoblade are great games with top production value but somehow they still haven't clicked with the masses.

 

[Mr Doggo]

actually, it's pure assumption and that's the beauty of this thread.
to address my assumption, I'd like to add that both metroid and xenoblade have no legs in Switch era.
How well they perform at launch, then most possibly how well they'll end in the end.
With Xenoblade 3 has more marketing time & coming story DLC, and sure people could argue MPR's shadow drop is hype, reviews mighty & price advantage as well as may get continuous marketing support before MP4, yet I am still thinking MPR will less than XC3.
Don't get me wrong. I am a huge metroid fan now, prefer metroid to xenoblade for sure.
After seeing dread had difficulty hitting 3 million, it's really a hard pill to swallow and what a punch to the gut.
And for any famil who see this comment and haven't purchase your copy of MPR, I strongly recommend this game to you.

Thats factually not true for xenoblade. Xeno 2 has had MASSIVE legs for a switch game, if dread managed to do the same it would be selling 5 million when all is said and done. But yeah xeno is not selling more than MPR, its not nearly as strong franchise.

And reminder, we dont know how much Dread has sold since its launch. That sort of discussion should be halted until the Cesa White Papers report for 2022 comes in.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

And reminder, we dont know how much Dread has sold since its launch. That sort of discussion should be halted until the Cesa White Papers report for 2022 comes in.

We know it's not much at all. Sales already dropped off a cliff to near nothing for the first quarter after the launch one and there's no reason whatsoever to think that changed.

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

And reminder, we dont know how much Dread has sold since its launch. That sort of discussion should be halted until the Cesa White Papers report for 2022 comes in.

When is that?

 

[Mr Doggo]

We know it's not much at all. Sales already dropped off a cliff to near nothing for the first quarter after the launch one and there's no reason whatsoever to think that changed.

its january, theres every reason to think so lmao.

When is that?

No idea, but should be soon enough, 2021 was also surprisingly only a few months after 2020.

 

[Joe]

On the US eShop, Metroid Prime Remastered is #2. Meanwhile, Kirby's Return to Dream Land is #5.

 

[ZephyrPhoenix]

I can't find a single physical copy of the game ):

 

[karmitt]

I’d originally assumed it would beat 4 million but with how limited the physical stock I’m starting to think 1. It won’t hit it, and 2. Nintendo didn’t have some clever plan here with the reduced price/shadow drop; They genuinely just didn’t think it was going to be a big release.

 

[Soul Skater]

More $40 games Nintendo, please.

Since you decide prices on a "case by case basis" now, shouldn't be a problem.

 

[Leo]

2. Nintendo didn’t have some clever plan here with the reduced price/shadow drop; They genuinely just didn’t think it was going to be a big release.

That seemed to be the case for me since always.

Nintendo wouldn't sell a game for 40 dollars unless they weren't confident about it and thought it absolutely wouldn't sell at 60 dollars.

 

[karmitt]

That seemed to be the case for me since always.

Nintendo wouldn't sell a game for 40 dollars unless they weren't confident about it and thought it absolutely wouldn't sell at 60 dollars.

I had considered all sorts or reasons for the pricing, one of them being that they devalued the games when they packaged them as a trilogy, but I never assumed it was just because they were pessimistic about reception.

They probably have a much better read on their games/franchises than I do and had good reason to make the choice, even if it ended up being a misjudgment.

 

[Rooster]

What I'm taking away is that Dread, despite it selling the best in the series at that point, didn't seem to inspire Nintendo that this game would be nearly the success it seems to have been.

Shadowdrop w/ physical launch later, lower shipment quantity, mid-point Direct reveal, $40 price point (which is fitting for a remake/remaster, but if Nintendo thought this game would have done fantastic they easily could've bumped it to normal retail like the Skyward Sword remaster).

I guess it's good to prove them wrong. But it's unfortunate they seem to continue to underestimate the series.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

I’d originally assumed it would beat 4 million but with how limited the physical stock I’m starting to think 1. It won’t hit it, and 2. Nintendo didn’t have some clever plan here with the reduced price/shadow drop; They genuinely just didn’t think it was going to be a big release.

I'll admit that this kind of bothered me too at first and made me think that Nintendo didn't realize Prime was popular. However now I think there's a more logical reading:

I dont think the $40 price is because they didnt think it would sell necessarily. Dread might be in the ball park of 4m now and that's a 2D game. I think Nintendo just realizes that a 1.5-2 million selling remaster is not as good for the Metroid brand as a 2.5-3.5 million selling remaster. It's not like the Zelda remasters, where the series doesn't need every chance it can get to grow the audience.

As for the physical copies, Nintendo probably produced a small amount because even with weeks of notice after announcement, retail stores probably didn't know how much copies they'd want to buy for their stores given how late the demand tracking would be. It's not like a game with months of hype, where there is good pre order tracking, Nintendo could have very easily overproduced copies only for retailers to not touch most of them. I think the fact that the physical edition is constantly out of stock just goes to show how crucial the dynamic between retailers and suppliers is, and if the retailers bought more of Metroid than would actually sell thatd be pretty bad for future games.

 

[Zeal543]

I'll admit that this kind of bothered me too at first and made me think that Nintendo didn't realize Prime was popular. However now I think there's a more logical reading:

I dont think the $40 price is because they didnt think it would sell necessarily. Dread might be in the ball park of 4m now and that's a 2D game. I think Nintendo just realizes that a 1.5-2 million selling remaster is not as good for the Metroid brand as a 2.5-3.5 million selling remaster. It's not like the Zelda remasters, where the series doesn't need every chance it can get to grow the audience.

As for the physical copies, Nintendo probably produced a small amount because even with weeks of notice after announcement, retail stores probably didn't know how much copies they'd want to buy for their stores given how late the demand tracking would be. It's not like a game with months of hype, where there is good pre order tracking, Nintendo could have very easily overproduced copies only for retailers to not touch most of them. I think the fact that the physical edition is constantly out of stock just goes to show how crucial the dynamic between retailers and suppliers is, and if the retailers bought more of Metroid than would actually sell thatd be pretty bad for future games.

Highly doubt dread is near 4 million, it dropped hard after the initial sales period

 

[AngryAlchemist]

Highly doubt dread is near 4 million, it dropped hard after the initial sales period

I said "in the ballpark" which I personally would say 3.5 million is, and it could be there tbh. Also, Fire Emblem Three Houses had the exact same thing happen to it, second quarter sales tanked (2.29 to 2.58) and then it ended up quietly having legs that almost doubled initial sales over the upcoming years.

That being said, yeah, I'm not quite as optimistic as some people are with Dread. 3.5 mil is what I think it will be at or close to, more so than 4m.

 

[Magic-Man]

Highly doubt dread is near 4 million, it dropped hard after the initial sales period

Maybe it isn't there yet, but it'll get there before the Switch is done. Metroid Prime Remastered and Metroid Prime 4 will boost sales.