P4bl0
Legend
How about this time you buy my Switch 2 if it’s not h1?
Deal
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Furukawa Speaks! We discuss the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Successor and our June Direct Predictions on the new episode of the Famiboards Discussion Club! Check it out here!
StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Deal
Meelow
Koopa
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That is shocking. By the time it releases, it would have been announced a year before the release.
Especially seeing how it's just a remaster of a 3DS game and Metroid Prime and SMRPG got a much closer announcement to release date and they are full-blown remakes, heck I wouldn't be surprised if TTYDR releases earlier in 2024 than later.
So maybe Luigi Mansion 2R was supposed to be released earlier in 2024 but got delayed or Nintendo decided to just announce it way earlier.
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They announced it to try and capitalize on the Mario movie popularity. Probably quite early into production, yeah.
Dekuman
Gerudo
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His latest tweet today seems more firm compared to his 2022 tweet when he put a question mark next to it. Maybe there was no new info and he's just repeating what he knew and he didn't bother indicating it was his lack of firmness, but it's just worth noting.
I think the rationale of it not being 8nm is sound, but we just have to treat conflicting data fairly.
LiC
Member
Yeah, if you drill into this, or go to the other threadmarks, there's a post I made detailing how the relationship between Nintendo, NVN/NVN2, and T239 is not in question. In the facile sense of "anything is possible," sure, we don't know that Nintendo hasn't totally cancelled NVN2 and everything associated with it and is planning on releasing an AMD-powered home console instead. But unless they did that, NVN2 and T239 are what is going to be used in the hardware released next year.
There are plenty of other examples I could have used, too, I just picked the ones that needed the least context for non-technical people to understand. Another would be, without getting into the weeds about what this is for, this code comment:
"V2's only addition is MIG support [...]; should be identical to V1 for T239 since it can't do MIG."
Something changed from V1 to V2 in the common libraries Nvidia is pulling into NVN here. But they put a note saying it's okay to use the V2 version of it because the only change from V1 is for something that's not relevant to T239. They only call out T239 here, because it's the only chip that is the final target, so everything revolves around its capabilities and behaviors.
That's definitely not the case.
This tweet, which came 13 days after his original post about T239, is very definitive -- and at minimum, it's 50% wrong already, because Orin and Drake are not based on Ada.
Dekuman
Gerudo
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eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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This is my worst nightmare
After today's Direct, I think I'm starting to see how things will play out. Given that we didn't see Prime 4 or FE4, I'm thinking those are now locks for the February 2024 Direct. Maybe not Prime 4--I could see Nintendo holding it back to launch the Switch 2. Then I'm thinking that the Mar. 2024 date Nate heard about is going to be the announcement for Switch 2, but it will be a bit brief (a la Oct. 2016 Switch reveal). Then June 2024 will be when Switch 2 gets the full blowout reveal (like the Jan. 2017 presentation). And the system will release sometime in H2 2024.
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Right - you'll notice he got #2 and #3 wrong.
He seem to be basing his guesses that T239 is same as Orin, which is 8nm. Orin is indeed 8nm, but that's not necessarily the whole picture. T239 is customized, not a "cookie cutter Orin" SoC.
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LiC
Member
I know. But considering he was just as "firm" about several things in 2021 that turned out to be wrong, I don't find convincing the argument that his recent "firm" tweet is an extra-credible claim. The tweet I posted is from about 8 months before Orin developer kits started shipping, so the fact that he was still claiming it was based on Ada suggests that he doesn't have good information on Tegra chips even when they're nearing release.
Personally, I'm still a coin flip on the process node, and I also just don't care that much. But this kopite thing is just really and truly not new information, and shouldn't be taken as such, unless he wants to contextualize what he's saying beyond reiteration of what he claimed in 2021. But he doesn't really discuss things or respond to questions, so we're not likely to get anything better here.
Kartina
THE PROCESS WON
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Maybe I’m just getting influenced by others but i’m starting to think that the next switch will not release with 3d mario, i could see a may or june release with metroid prime 4 at launch and a 3d mario in October, I don’t think that’s going to be a good idea but with so many mario game already releasing I can’t see a 3d mario so soon especially not even a year after mario wonder. Or I guess the next switch will just release in october and they have more remakes for spring and summer, in that case maybe prime 4 could be a 2025 release.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
The only reason I think the process node is interesting from a Nintendo Switch 2 point of view - when I was holding on hard for the idea of 8nm, I just had to believe in bargain basement clocks. Like, well below peak efficiency, because as we'd discussed before marginal gains are still gains.
Once I really started to think about 4N as possible, then it made the device not just seem more possible, but more sensical. If you've got to clock well below peak efficiency to get your battery life where you want it, why not cut SMs, and clock higher? 8SMs at peak efficiency would offer more performance than 12SMs at bargain basement clocks, while also offering comparable battery life, and being a cheaper chip to make!
4NM seemed like an implausible choice at the time, but it started to make various decisions line up - and once I considered 4NM, I could really think about what the range of clock speeds would be, which is where I switched from thinking of a 6x perf leap (the CUDA core numbers) as a max, to thinking of it as a floor
I still try not to get too hyped up by performance numbers, but it is more fun that way
Once I really started to think about 4N as possible, then it made the device not just seem more possible, but more sensical. If you've got to clock well below peak efficiency to get your battery life where you want it, why not cut SMs, and clock higher? 8SMs at peak efficiency would offer more performance than 12SMs at bargain basement clocks, while also offering comparable battery life, and being a cheaper chip to make!
4NM seemed like an implausible choice at the time, but it started to make various decisions line up - and once I considered 4NM, I could really think about what the range of clock speeds would be, which is where I switched from thinking of a 6x perf leap (the CUDA core numbers) as a max, to thinking of it as a floor
I still try not to get too hyped up by performance numbers, but it is more fun that way
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And correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't going with 4N also make more economical sense? Yes, 4N is 2.2x more expensive compared to Samsung 8N, but is 2.7x more denser, which means more bang for the buck.The only reason I think the process node is interesting from a Nintendo Switch 2 point of view - when I was holding on hard for the idea of 8nm, I just had to believe in bargain basement clocks. Like, well below peak efficiency, because as we'd discussed before marginal gains are still gains.
Once I really started to think about 4N as possible, then it made the device not just seem more possible, but more sensical. If you've got to clock well below peak efficiency to get your battery life where you want it, why not cut SMs, and clock higher? 8SMs at peak efficiency would offer more performance than 12SMs at bargain basement clocks, while also offering comparable battery life, and being a cheaper chip to make!
4NM seemed like an implausible choice at the time, but it started to make various decisions line up - and once I considered 4NM, I could really think about what the range of clock speeds would be, which is where I switched from thinking of a 6x perf leap (the CUDA core numbers) as a max, to thinking of it as a floor
I still try not to get too hyped up by performance numbers, but it is more fun that way
People like to claim Nintendo is cheap as the reason for it being likely Nintendo will go with 8N, but by that argument one would think Nintendo would choose 4N instead (assuming they had choice in the matter). We know nvidia have been shipping other chips that went through the 4N manufacturing process.
snorkellingfish
Cappy
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- she
Thoughts on last night's Direct, now that I've managed to get caught up:
The time period of announced games doesn't provide a deadline for the Switch 2. I've learned from the last year not to assume that the end of the announced roadmap must be when the Switch 2 will release. The Direct was billed as focusing on Winter/Summer games (depending on your preferred hemisphere), and did largely as advertised. Nintendo can always pop up with a January Direct to provide an updated roadmap of games through H1 2024 if they need to.
Nintendo want to create an impression of a regular cadence of releases, even if they're having to use DLC (Splatoon, Pokemon) or delayed physical releases (Pikmin) to fill in some of the gaps. I'll assume that they'll want to maintain a similar cadence and calibre of releases up to at least the release date of Switch 2, if not through it, otherwise they'd have the option of spreading their ports out more. That doesn't mean that they'll be releasing the Switch 2 at any specific date, though, because we don't know what we don't know about potential unannounced titles.
None of the announced titles preclude a Switch 2 release. They're not major AAA releases. With the exception of Princess Peach Showtime, the schedule consists of ports, which could easily release after the Switch 2 or as cross-gen titles. I know I've been the person arguing that cross-gen titles should be announced for the more powerful console first, but an exception to that is straightforward posts that aren't going to be technical showcases either way. They're all titles that could work as filler to hold us over until the Switch 2 release or as the sort of late releases that we saw on the 3DS after the Switch came out.
There was a lack of new non-port announcements. The only non-ports were Princess Peach Showtime and Warioware which were both shown previously. The big One More Thing was a port (even if it's an anticipated port). Doesn't mean that there's nothing cooking, but it does feel like that late-gen period when all the big new teams have moved on to the next console. I hope that doesn't stretch on indefinitely. (But, like, I've also been through, like, four previous Nintendo home console transitions, so I've seen worse.)
Speaking of Princess Peach Showtime. Nintendo aren't going to schedule their major shiny new console release around a Peach game, but they probably would schedule their Peach game around the new console release. I don't see Princess Peach Showtime as a launch title, when I'd expect Nintendo to have visually impressive Big Launch Title all cooked up and ready, and I don't see Nintendo deliberately scheduling Princess Peach Showtime at the same time as a their Big Launch Title when they could bring it forward or push it back by a couple of weeks to give it more fresh air. To me, that makes 22 March 2024 unlikely as a launch date, and maybe a fortnight either side, but doesn't really show anything about early March or April 2024, since I don't think Princess Peach Showtime is all that big a release. Apart from the Big Launch Title, I'd expect game releases to be slotted around the Switch 2 target date, rather than the other way around.
Metroid Prime 4 is still missing. That doesn't necessarily mean anything, since Nintendo could be holding back a big announcement for a later date, but it's the one announced title that I wouldn't expect to be shown-off with a Switch 1 trailer if it's intended as a cross-gen release. (Although, I still think that it makes more sense as a launch window title than a Big Launch Title, since I do think the Big Launch Title needs to be an exclusive graphical showcase.)
Overall, my Switch 2 prediction is still sitting around "Act 2" 2024 (i.e. the middle 50% - April through September). The optimist in me thinks that May 2024 looks like a nice time for it, but I'm self-aware enough to know that that's based around wishes and hopes rather than any actual evidence.
The time period of announced games doesn't provide a deadline for the Switch 2. I've learned from the last year not to assume that the end of the announced roadmap must be when the Switch 2 will release. The Direct was billed as focusing on Winter/Summer games (depending on your preferred hemisphere), and did largely as advertised. Nintendo can always pop up with a January Direct to provide an updated roadmap of games through H1 2024 if they need to.
Nintendo want to create an impression of a regular cadence of releases, even if they're having to use DLC (Splatoon, Pokemon) or delayed physical releases (Pikmin) to fill in some of the gaps. I'll assume that they'll want to maintain a similar cadence and calibre of releases up to at least the release date of Switch 2, if not through it, otherwise they'd have the option of spreading their ports out more. That doesn't mean that they'll be releasing the Switch 2 at any specific date, though, because we don't know what we don't know about potential unannounced titles.
None of the announced titles preclude a Switch 2 release. They're not major AAA releases. With the exception of Princess Peach Showtime, the schedule consists of ports, which could easily release after the Switch 2 or as cross-gen titles. I know I've been the person arguing that cross-gen titles should be announced for the more powerful console first, but an exception to that is straightforward posts that aren't going to be technical showcases either way. They're all titles that could work as filler to hold us over until the Switch 2 release or as the sort of late releases that we saw on the 3DS after the Switch came out.
There was a lack of new non-port announcements. The only non-ports were Princess Peach Showtime and Warioware which were both shown previously. The big One More Thing was a port (even if it's an anticipated port). Doesn't mean that there's nothing cooking, but it does feel like that late-gen period when all the big new teams have moved on to the next console. I hope that doesn't stretch on indefinitely. (But, like, I've also been through, like, four previous Nintendo home console transitions, so I've seen worse.)
Speaking of Princess Peach Showtime. Nintendo aren't going to schedule their major shiny new console release around a Peach game, but they probably would schedule their Peach game around the new console release. I don't see Princess Peach Showtime as a launch title, when I'd expect Nintendo to have visually impressive Big Launch Title all cooked up and ready, and I don't see Nintendo deliberately scheduling Princess Peach Showtime at the same time as a their Big Launch Title when they could bring it forward or push it back by a couple of weeks to give it more fresh air. To me, that makes 22 March 2024 unlikely as a launch date, and maybe a fortnight either side, but doesn't really show anything about early March or April 2024, since I don't think Princess Peach Showtime is all that big a release. Apart from the Big Launch Title, I'd expect game releases to be slotted around the Switch 2 target date, rather than the other way around.
Metroid Prime 4 is still missing. That doesn't necessarily mean anything, since Nintendo could be holding back a big announcement for a later date, but it's the one announced title that I wouldn't expect to be shown-off with a Switch 1 trailer if it's intended as a cross-gen release. (Although, I still think that it makes more sense as a launch window title than a Big Launch Title, since I do think the Big Launch Title needs to be an exclusive graphical showcase.)
Overall, my Switch 2 prediction is still sitting around "Act 2" 2024 (i.e. the middle 50% - April through September). The optimist in me thinks that May 2024 looks like a nice time for it, but I'm self-aware enough to know that that's based around wishes and hopes rather than any actual evidence.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
"Thinking he heard something..." the hell is this?
The mention of March was repeated numerous time and it wasn't in passing. March was stated, specifically, and a talking point at Gamescom. It came up in all conversations around the successor. The only unknown was to which it was referring -- be it launch, an announcement, a reveal, or a deadline for games to target.
GrandDemand
Cappy
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I was looking at the original Kepler_L2 tweet where he referenced this https://github.com/NVIDIA/open-gpu-...f20fa2be4825bd72ee/classes/3d/README.txt#L100, and which kopite responded to with his Samsung 8N claim.
I went through the Github and compared some of the classes. They're denoting different architectures with different 3D graphics/CUDA version capabilities.
Take MAXWELL_A vs. MAXWELL_B. They're both on 28nm (with a big caveat I'll mention later). The difference is that A is Maxwell and B is Maxwell 2.0. Using Techpowerup's GPU database to compare GM107 (Maxwell 1.0) and GM204 (Maxwell 2.0) we find that:
Maxwell 1.0
The big caveat here is GM20B, which is the GPU found in the Tegra X1 in the Switch. This is also using Maxwell 2.0, however it is tabbed on TSMC 20nm (for the original, Mariko) and not 28nm like the rest of Maxwell 2.0 (and Maxwell 1.0, and Kepler 1.0/2.0).
Essentially, this Github file is separating classes by architecture and their associated 3D/compute capabilities and NOT by node. And of course, we know that GA10F in T239 is using Ampere, but to assume that because it is in the same class as the other desktop Ampere GPUs (AMPERE_B) it is using the same node (Samsung 8N) is entirely illogical.
I went through the Github and compared some of the classes. They're denoting different architectures with different 3D graphics/CUDA version capabilities.
Take MAXWELL_A vs. MAXWELL_B. They're both on 28nm (with a big caveat I'll mention later). The difference is that A is Maxwell and B is Maxwell 2.0. Using Techpowerup's GPU database to compare GM107 (Maxwell 1.0) and GM204 (Maxwell 2.0) we find that:
Maxwell 1.0
- 64KB L1 cache per SMM
- CUDA 5.0
- NVENC 4th Gen
- 48KB L1 per SMM
- CUDA 5.2
- NVENC 5th Gen
The big caveat here is GM20B, which is the GPU found in the Tegra X1 in the Switch. This is also using Maxwell 2.0, however it is tabbed on TSMC 20nm (for the original, Mariko) and not 28nm like the rest of Maxwell 2.0 (and Maxwell 1.0, and Kepler 1.0/2.0).
Essentially, this Github file is separating classes by architecture and their associated 3D/compute capabilities and NOT by node. And of course, we know that GA10F in T239 is using Ampere, but to assume that because it is in the same class as the other desktop Ampere GPUs (AMPERE_B) it is using the same node (Samsung 8N) is entirely illogical.
Meelow
Koopa
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I'd ignore that comment Nate. I wonder if someone will come out and verify what March 2024 is.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
I'm sure that game is pretty much done or close to me finished. I think they're spacing it out so they don't have droughts. I also think there's a decent chance LM2 could be used as an example for RT. Of course, we don't know when Switch 2 will come out.
Can we have this bet thread marked?
eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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- He/Him
Any revelations on this?
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Still an area of uncertainty.
No an area of uncertainty is how I’m gonna make it to your place, I owe you corn muffins from that final reveal from the direct today
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Did you master the art of teleportation?
Hopefully that’s the feature of the next gen hardware.
Dekuman
Gerudo
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- He/Him/His
This uncertainty got me thinking. Are your sources / or the people your sources talked to just being coy with this date? Usually dates are attached to an event and it's a bit odd to heard a date but not know what it's about.
it's more logical (i would think) to hear about a potential event without a date.
What's your hunch on this? And its ok if you don't feel like spelling iut out, but i just find it odd we have March 2024 but not know what its for.
eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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Unfortunate, let's hope TGS clears these grey skies just a bit.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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I think he gave his thoughts on the podcast. March release sounds exciting but it being an announcment date makes far more sense. It also lines up better with his informed speculation I believe
GamerJM
Chain Chomp
I'm genuinely sorry, I misremembered. I think in my memory I mistook the vagueness of what the date was referring to with the vagueness of it being stated at all.
LiC
Member
Right, the A/B/C are "GPU classes" which basically mean a certain configuration of hardware that has to be controlled a certain way by the driver. For example, the "clc797.h" file contains the register mapping for sending signals to control GPUs in that class and make them do 3D rendering stuff. It has nothing to do with the node.
Was Kepler_L2 saying that? I think he thinks it's a big reveal that it's part of Ampere as if we haven't all known that for literal years, and he seems to be making a lot of stupid posts about it. Not sure it was being used as evidence of the node, though.
GrandDemand
Cappy
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No Kepler wasn't saying that. Was mostly posting for some additional context about that Github file and for some comments I saw elsewhere (mostly Reddit) concluding that this somehow provides additional support to the 8N claims.
Edit: Thank you as well for explaining what the class files are specifically for, you provided a lot better detail than I did!
Look over there
Bob-omb
I wonder if the conversation goes like:
"So, what's this March 2024 thing about"
"March 2024"
"That...doesn't answer the question. What is that date for?"
"...... March 2024"
"equivalent to throwing hands up in the air"
"March 2024*
"So, what's this March 2024 thing about"
"March 2024"
"That...doesn't answer the question. What is that date for?"
"...... March 2024"
"equivalent to throwing hands up in the air"
"March 2024
*
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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- He
What if the "switch 2" was big and unwieldy at first kind of like how the Gameboy advance was and then it will be a slimmer form factor maybe closer to the OG switch like how the SP was to the advance
when the process node gets a shrink/refresh in the future
when the process node gets a shrink/refresh in the future
Exactly. Like, is the vagueness really due to Nintendo literally just saying, "Hey guys, stuff is happening related to Switch 2 in March 2024"? That seems pretty unlikely. Why would Nintendo tell devs a date without saying what it's for?I wonder if the conversation goes like:
"So, what's this March 2024 thing about"
"March 2024"
"That...doesn't answer the question. What is that date for?"
"...... March 2024"
"equivalent to throwing hands up in the air"
"March 2024
Maybe it was more like "be sure to have your Switch 2 game builds ready by March 2024"? Which could be interpreted as "ready to show to the public via trailers" or "ready to be submitted for lot check"?
Or is it that devs know what it is, but just don't wanna stick their necks out too far and only feel safe revealing that something is happening in March 2024?
TomNookYankees
The Baby
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As someone else has pointed out, March 2024's significance could be something like Third Party NDAs relating to switch 2 expiring in March.
ReyVGM
Game Endings Master
The GBA was "big and unwieldy"?
Are you sure you aren't confusing it with the DS phat?
That's an interesting theory. And that would imply the Switch 2 being announced March or earlier (cause Nintendo would naturally want to talk about Switch 2 before 3rd parties).
Alovon11
Like Like
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- He/Them
Feel that Gold Deadline for Launch Window Marketing or the actual Early end of the Launch Window is more probable than Announcement/Reveal.
Primarily as production-side rumours are leaning heavily towards November being the start date for full-scale production of the system. Which would mean even if they held onto revealing, the latest they could reach is probably January before aknowleding it. And with how expensive costs for storing products like this can get, doubt they'd hold onto units into the Summer (The cost of storage would likely negate their launch-window sales, even if they sold every single unit
So, either a March Launch, or a April/May Launch with March being when launch titles/updates marketed for the reveal have to be ready by (As those who Nintendo sent Devkits to first before the late-wave studios probably already have their games/upgrades they want to show off set for the initial reveal teaser/Switch 2 Presentation equivalent)
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i think they are going to release switch games for a few more years.
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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I guess those weren't the correct words I was looking for but it definitely was on the bigger side of things comparatively to the GBA sp
1UpMango
I'm late to Team 2023
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someone in r/HonkaiStarRail pointed out this asterisk in the PS5 release date trailer for Honkai Star Rail and the comments immediately made me go to this thread
The optimist in me says "Switch 2". The pessimist in me says "Xbox Series". Normally you wouldn't expect to see a game like this on Xbox, but Microsoft has shown a greater willingness to chase after anime games in recent times.
robertman2
Chain Chomp
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someone in r/HonkaiStarRail pointed out this asterisk in the PS5 release date trailer for Honkai Star Rail and the comments immediately made me go to this thread
lol at the people thinking it's for Xbox
Phil threw money at Persona. He could throw money at this.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Well, an announcement, deadline or a reveal would be about the same no? If it’s going to be announced, things should be ready to showcase it. If it’s a deadline, then that means a reveal would be eminent and things should be wrapping up. Reveal is self explanatory, and things should be wrapped up already for that period.
The only one that would be different is Launch, since games should be done way before hand for that.
It’s odd that March was a constant chatter, explains why Eurogamer spoke about it as well.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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BreakAtmo
Bob-omb
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Interesting - I had heard Samsung 8nm was a poor node in terms of overall power efficiency, but I wasn't sure if yields were also poor.
Thank you for the in-depth explanation. This is what I imagined too - 4N gets things so much smaller that 8nm would have to have a ridiculously lower defect rate to actually be better.
Meelow
Koopa
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I was looking at old NeoGAF Switch threads after the announcement to remind myself of it. People expected it to be $249 (some were going as low as $199) and when $299 was confirmed, people were dooming the console so hard. Like the way the reactions went you would of thought Nintendo pulled a Sony E3 2006 and priced it $599 US dollars.
Now we would be lucky for the Switch 2 to be $299 lol.
Now we would be lucky for the Switch 2 to be $299 lol.
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TGA:
A Trailer starts, no Switch Logo at the beginning.
Dark Hallway with blueish light, a person slowly walking down - is that?
Fast paced cuts to different Gameplay scenes and panoramic shots - is it really?, but it looks good, too good.
Then back to the dark hallway. Yes! There she is, it really is Samus!
Cut to the Logo of Metroid Prime 4, Nintendo Logo. Though no mentioning of the Switch. Platform(s): TBA
Discussion until January of what it means.
A Trailer starts, no Switch Logo at the beginning.
Dark Hallway with blueish light, a person slowly walking down - is that?
Fast paced cuts to different Gameplay scenes and panoramic shots - is it really?, but it looks good, too good.
Then back to the dark hallway. Yes! There she is, it really is Samus!
Cut to the Logo of Metroid Prime 4, Nintendo Logo. Though no mentioning of the Switch. Platform(s): TBA
Discussion until January of what it means.
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