StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[AshenMortality]

I know a lot of people were expecting Mario Kart 9/10 to be a launch title for the Switch 2.....and today it was revealed that MK8 is getting 6 massive DLC expansions until 2023.

It's an interesting and unexpected development, and I'm wondering what this means for Mario Kart 9/10 and the next Switch. A new MK now seems like it's a long ways off, and may not even be in development yet. And what that would mean for a Switch 2 given that Nintendo would probably want a new MK game to accompany the launch....I'm not sure.

Yes mentioning 2023 made me feel the same. I guess it means no switch 2 until 2023 the minimum?

 

[YolkFolk]

Mario Kart DLC coming until late 2023 made me think Switch 2 is way way off at the moment.

Feels like the current Switch is gonna have a huge second wind of software over the next couple of years.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

Mario Kart DLC coming until late 2023 made me think Switch 2 is way way off at the moment.

Feels like the current Switch is gonna have a huge second wind of software over the next couple of years.

Exact same thought.

Nintendo wants more users signed up on NSO account before it launches the next console, and the DLC is one way to get there. Same playbook as with animal crossing.

Next console looks a lot more likely in 2023 and 2022.

 

[Sol]

Yes mentioning 2023 made me feel the same. I guess it means no switch 2 until 2023 the minimum?

Mario Kart DLC coming until late 2023 made me think Switch 2 is way way off at the moment.

Feels like the current Switch is gonna have a huge second wind of software over the next couple of years.

That's what I'm thinking. I can't see Mario Kart 9/10 even being developed at this point - because if it were, why not just take all these courses being remastered for MK8 and include them in Mario Kart 9/10? 6 DLC packs with 8 tracks each, so 3 this year and 3 in 2023, with the last one I'm assuming being released in fall of 2023. Does a new MK release just a year or less after that? I don't see it.

They're putting all these remastered tracks in MK8, which tells me that the next Mario Kart game may not even in development at this point.

Which then may mean the Switch is is much farther off than we realize.

 

[MP!]

nah
It just means the next mario kart is farther off than people realize

 

[Dakhil]

I don't think Mario Kart 9(?) is necessarily really contingent on when the DLSS model* launches, considering Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was released more than a month after the Nintendo Switch was launched.

I suppose the only way to know if Nintendo plans to launch the DLSS model* during holiday 2022 or not is if there are news of Dane being taped out at probably May 2022 at the absolute latest.

 

[karmitt]

I know, confirmation bias and whatnot, but I saw this Direct and it only affirmed how well a late 2022 revision/pro fits. Even as early as September to be honest.

Mario Kart 8 DX is now setup to release new content until end of 2023. I don't see them trying to cut off sales of the title for another few years following that. And Switch Sports is an attempt to further recapture more casual audiences, and they'll probably want to give it plenty of time to do so. It's extremely polished looking, built for the current hardware, and absolutely intended to be a new evergreen.

The Switch doesn't feel like it has 4-5 years of life left among the core audience. They'll of course still buy up major first party entries, but the enthusiasm towards the device itself is going to dwindle.

nah
It just means the next mario kart is farther off than people realize

yeah MK9 is absolutely a 2026+ title and I don't even mind. I'll be picking up a digital copy of 8DX as soon as I see a sale (gave my physical to my nephew some time ago).

Edit: I do wish I could turn off blue turtle shells in single player. that's probably the only thing that prevented me from going hard at unlocking everything on Wii U

 

[MP!]

yeah MK9 is absolutely a 2026+ title and I don't even mind. I'll be picking up a digital copy of 8DX as soon as I see a sale (gave my physical to my nephew some time ago).

I think it's smart move
That's one title that will absolutely move new hardware it never made sense to launch a new one without it
Ironically the free DLC for Online subs is probably going to get me to buy 8Deluxe haha

 

[oracion]

I am now convinced that Dane will be released as a Pro model sometime this year or next.

 

[Alovon11]

I don't think Mario Kart 9(?) is necessarily really contingent on when the DLSS model* launches, considering Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was released more than a month after the Nintendo Switch was launched.

I suppose the only way to know if Nintendo plans to launch the DLSS model* during holiday 2022 or not is if there are news of Dane being tapped out at probably May 2022 at the absolute latest.

Yeah, and anyway all the evidence still leans towards a 2022/ Early 2023 launch with BOTW2 and Odyssey 2 coming in that window which both are assured, system sellers.

I know, confirmation bias and whatnot, but I saw this Direct and it only affirmed how well a late 2022 revision/pro fits. Even as early as September to be honest.

Mario Kart 8 DX is now setup to release new content until end of 2023. I don't see them trying to cut off sales of the title for another few years following that. And Switch Sports is an attempt to further recapture more casual audiences, and they'll probably want to give it plenty of time to do so. It's extremely polished looking, built for the current hardware, and absolutely intended to be a new evergreen.

The Switch doesn't feel like it has 4-5 years of life left among the core audience. They'll of course still buy up major first party entries, but the enthusiasm towards the device itself is going to dwindle.


yeah MK9 is absolutely a 2026+ title and I don't even mind. I'll be picking up a digital copy of 8DX as soon as I see a sale (gave my physical to my nephew some time ago).

Edit: I do wish I could turn off blue turtle shells in single player. that's probably the only thing that prevented me from going hard at unlocking everything on Wii U

Same, It's just the major system-selling launches for a Swtich 2 dry up after 1H 2023 more or less.

BOTW2, Easy Launch title, BOTW1 and Link's Awakening helped make the OG Switch and Switch Lite sell like gangbusters

Odyssey 2/Mario Movie Tie-in: It's a 3D Mario game post-Odyssey, fueled by the hype of the movie it will likely sell a lot too.

Xenoblade 3: Out in September, likely will sell best of the franchise as every entry has sold better than the previous one

MK9: 2025 title at absolute earliest and by then Switch interest would've dipped down to new lows sales-wise.

What else to release there?
Splat 3 is already out in 2022
We won't get another 3D Mario or Mainline Zelda until 2027 at the earliest.

The window for release is too big

 

[Skittzo]

Yeah this Direct signals to me that Dane is not going to be a new gen, and a true new gen isn't coming until like 2026-2027 at the earliest. For two reasons:

One, Mario Kart as discussed already.

Two, the lack of anything Zelda tells me they're extremely confident that BOTW2 is launching this year, and I do believe that they still absolutely want to launch the Dane Switch with that if possible.

 

[Hosermess]

What else to release there?

Uh, a couple of #4's

Yeah this Direct signals to me that Dane is not going to be a new gen, and a true new gen isn't coming until like 2026-2027 at the earliest. For two reasons:

One, Mario Kart as discussed already.

Two, the lack of anything Zelda tells me they're extremely confident that BOTW2 is launching this year, and I do believe that they still absolutely want to launch the Dane Switch with that if possible.

Was surprised how many people were expecting anything about BotW2.

 

[Alovon11]

Yeah this Direct signals to me that Dane is not going to be a new gen, and a true new gen isn't coming until like 2026-2027 at the earliest. For two reasons:

One, Mario Kart as discussed already.

Two, the lack of anything Zelda tells me they're extremely confident that BOTW2 is launching this year, and I do believe that they still absolutely want to launch the Dane Switch with that if possible.

yeah hardware wise it is the same, but it leaning towards an iterative cycle for Dane's console (iPhone)/Game Boy color has increased.

A proper "Pro" is unlikely as that indicates that every game would be on both which isn't the case based on exclusives rumours for Dane.

 

[Skittzo]

Was surprised how many people were expecting anything about BotW2.

I don't just mean there was no BOTW2, there were no other Zelda games either. It's been rumored that they're basically sitting on WWHD and TPHD but they wouldn't want to launch them this year if BOTW2 is indeed launching this year.

yeah hardware wise it is the same, but it leaning towards either an iterative cycle for Dane's console (iPhone)/Game Boy color has increased.

A proper "Pro" is unlikely as that indicates that every game would be on both which isn't the case based on exclusives rumours for Dane.

Right, obviously I agree it's looking like an iterative upgrade a la GBC or XSX to the Switch's XSS.

 

[karmitt]

I think it's smart move
That's one title that will absolutely move new hardware it never made sense to launch a new one without it
Ironically the free DLC for Online subs is probably going to get me to buy 8Deluxe haha

won't lie, it's working on convincing me to both buy MK8 DX, and keep subbed to NSO+.

I said when they announced the new NSO tier that more free first party DLC would be a great way to go for this service, so I'm super happy to see that's actually happening

 

[SNP]

What do you guys think about this?

 

[Skittzo]

What do you guys think about this?

All the more reason why they won't up and delay the new hardware by years because it may not be possible to secure new contracts for components in a year or two.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

All the more reason why they won't up and delay the new hardware by years because it may not be possible to secure new contracts for components in a year or two.

It’s mostly likely bullshit. I’ve seen so many different estimate for the chip supply chain, but I will take the WAY under for 2026.

This is typically double ordering - and customers will cancel when capacity utilization loosens up.

 

[Sol]

Yeah this Direct signals to me that Dane is not going to be a new gen, and a true new gen isn't coming until like 2026-2027 at the earliest. For two reasons:

One, Mario Kart as discussed already.

Two, the lack of anything Zelda tells me they're extremely confident that BOTW2 is launching this year, and I do believe that they still absolutely want to launch the Dane Switch with that if possible.

10 year life cycle for the Switch....wow. Like, yeah, the Pro will be there for those of us that want to play the games in a higher quality, but the Switch being used as a base for development until 2027 is depressing as hell.

That would be like PS5 and Series X not coming out until Holiday 2023.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

10 year life cycle for the Switch....wow. Like, yeah, the Pro will be there for those of us that want to play the games in a higher quality, but the Switch being used as a base for development until 2027 is depressing as hell.

That would be like PS5 and Series X not coming out until Holiday 2023.

They will hit the saturation point for the Switch way before 2027 unless you believe that the gamer pool is bigger than ever even tho it didn’t really grow for the last 20+ years.

But if I’m wrong - Dane will be old as fuck when it launches in 2027

 

[Thraktor]

Hey, I used to read your post back on resetera. And I came across one of your prior arguments that 8 nm could be older than 20 nm was when the original switch launched.
Could you share how your perspective/forecast on the hardware of the next switch has changed over the last 12 months or so?

I wouldn't say my expectations for the hardware have changed very much, more that the context of those expectations have perhaps changed a bit. On the SoC side, I'm still expecting an 8nm chip with either 4 A78 CPU cores for games and 2 or 4 A55s, or 6 A78 cores total with one reserved for the OS, and a 4 SM GPU (maybe 6 SM at a stretch) with the same basic Ampere architecture as Orin (ie double-rate tensor cores). Then we're probably looking at 8GB LPDDR5 and 128GB of flash. I feel that's a pretty hefty upgrade for a "pro" model, between the architectural upgrades of the A78 cores and obviously DLSS on the GPU side.

The tricky bit is whether it's a new generation, or a pro model, or something in between. When Switch first released, I thought they may take a more iterative approach to hardware, with a new Switch model perhaps every 3 years, coming in at $299 to replace the old one, keeping the price point the same, with gradually improving hardware. The thing is, Nintendo have managed to keep the price point the same for 5 years and counting now with no hardware changes, so clearly they didn't need my advice! I had then assumed, given most of what we've heard about this new device using Dane, that it's effectively a "pro" model, designed to run mostly the same software as the base Switch, at a higher resolution and with some otherwise improved graphics. Dakhil keeps a very helpful running log of rumours on the first page of this thread, and the rumours from NateDrake and Bloomberg in particular, seem consistent with a pro model.

I'm currently unsure about what it is, but one of the reasons I was changing my tune a bit is the fact that we're very late in the generation for a pro model. We're looking at 5 and a half years at the very earliest, whereas if you look at the DSi, n3DS, PS4 Pro and Xbox One X, they all released within 3 to 4 years after the launch of the base console. Logically, it doesn't make sense to spend a lot of R&D on both hardware and software for a new device if it's only going to be on the market for a year or two before the next generation shows up. Therefore, either Nintendo aren't releasing the next gen until perhaps 2025, or the Dane model is Switch 2. And while an 8nm Ampere SoC is a very nice upgrade for a pro model, if we're looking at a Switch 2, I think it's too conservative. Pro consoles can get away with decent hardware margins because they only have to sell to a niche (and a less price-sensitive one at that), but for a new generation I feel it's important to keep margins low to maximise perceived value and get as much demand out of the gate as possible to build up momentum.

Of course even since you posted your question I'm still changing my mind after watching the Nintendo Direct! It would be unusual to launch Switch 2 while Nintendo are in the middle of a two-year run of DLC for Mario Kart 8 on the original Switch. Not impossible, as it would be backwards compatible, and MK8 would likely be patched to run at increased resolution, but still quite unusual. And given what we've heard, it would seem very unlikely to me that the Dane powered model will launch any later than the end of 2023, so maybe that rules out the Dane model being Switch 2? Or maybe I'm just reading too much into Nintendo trying to get better return on all the assets built out for Mario Kart Tour?

I am starting to wonder if Nintendo are genuinely going to try to squeeze 8+ years out of Switch before releasing a successor. The sales of the console are obviously in a very good position going into its sixth year on the market, and Nintendo clearly have the capability to keep putting out successful software on it. I'm reminded of one of the quotes from the recent investor Q&A:

Looking ahead, it will be important to maintain and grow the (current) number of nearly 100 million "annual players", which will also be important when considering the next hardware rollout.

This is machine translated, so we probably shouldn't read too much into the specific wording, but I do wonder if both the Mario Kart 8 DLC, being spread out over two years, as well as a pro-style model featuring Dane, are both part of a transition into a focus on maintaining an active player base as hardware sales slow down. The Mario Kart DLC specifically, but also the NSO Expansion Pack in general does seem to be designed around increasing engagement among owners, and having a relatively low-cost subscription service which provides regular new DLC for extremely popular games is a great way to keep people engaged. Pro style consoles also, I would expect, sell in large part to people who have already bought the base console. Rather than being a way to extend the user-base, they're more about re-engaging players who may have bought the original console while it was the hot new thing, but spend less time on it now.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

That's what I'm thinking. I can't see Mario Kart 9/10 even being developed at this point - because if it were, why not just take all these courses being remastered for MK8 and include them in Mario Kart 9/10?

It seems like this will be largely recycling content from MK Tour. Not fully new creations, and would be far below "Switch 2" standard without being reremade.

 

[Skittzo]

They will hit the saturation point for the Switch way before 2027 unless you believe that the gamer pool is bigger than ever even tho it didn’t really grow for the last 20+ years.

But if I’m wrong - Dane will be old as fuck when it launches in 2027

Yeah 2027 might be a bit of an exaggeration but at this stage I don't see any new discrete generation happening before 2025 at the very earliest.

 

[Dakhil]

What do you guys think about this?

Speaking of more semiconductors news that could negatively impact Nintendo since Nintendo has used Kioxia for the Nintendo Switch's internal flash storage.

---

Anyway, I wonder if Nvidia Lightspeed Studios has any plans to release a patch for Portal and Portal 2 that adds support for DLSS and perhaps ray tracing when played on the DLSS model* since Nvidia Lightspeed Studios is porting Portal and Portal 2 to the Nintendo Switch after all.

 

[ILikeFeet]

What do you guys think about this?

if Dane Switch is to release in teh 1-2 years, Nintendo would have already obtained their allocation

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

I wouldn't say my expectations for the hardware have changed very much, more that the context of those expectations have perhaps changed a bit. On the SoC side, I'm still expecting an 8nm chip with either 4 A78 CPU cores for games and 2 or 4 A55s, or 6 A78 cores total with one reserved for the OS, and a 4 SM GPU (maybe 6 SM at a stretch) with the same basic Ampere architecture as Orin (ie double-rate tensor cores). Then we're probably looking at 8GB LPDDR5 and 128GB of flash. I feel that's a pretty hefty upgrade for a "pro" model, between the architectural upgrades of the A78 cores and obviously DLSS on the GPU side.

The tricky bit is whether it's a new generation, or a pro model, or something in between. When Switch first released, I thought they may take a more iterative approach to hardware, with a new Switch model perhaps every 3 years, coming in at $299 to replace the old one, keeping the price point the same, with gradually improving hardware. The thing is, Nintendo have managed to keep the price point the same for 5 years and counting now with no hardware changes, so clearly they didn't need my advice! I had then assumed, given most of what we've heard about this new device using Dane, that it's effectively a "pro" model, designed to run mostly the same software as the base Switch, at a higher resolution and with some otherwise improved graphics. Dakhil keeps a very helpful running log of rumours on the first page of this thread, and the rumours from NateDrake and Bloomberg in particular, seem consistent with a pro model.

I'm currently unsure about what it is, but one of the reasons I was changing my tune a bit is the fact that we're very late in the generation for a pro model. We're looking at 5 and a half years at the very earliest, whereas if you look at the DSi, n3DS, PS4 Pro and Xbox One X, they all released within 3 to 4 years after the launch of the base console. Logically, it doesn't make sense to spend a lot of R&D on both hardware and software for a new device if it's only going to be on the market for a year or two before the next generation shows up. Therefore, either Nintendo aren't releasing the next gen until perhaps 2025, or the Dane model is Switch 2. And while an 8nm Ampere SoC is a very nice upgrade for a pro model, if we're looking at a Switch 2, I think it's too conservative. Pro consoles can get away with decent hardware margins because they only have to sell to a niche (and a less price-sensitive one at that), but for a new generation I feel it's important to keep margins low to maximise perceived value and get as much demand out of the gate as possible to build up momentum.

Of course even since you posted your question I'm still changing my mind after watching the Nintendo Direct! It would be unusual to launch Switch 2 while Nintendo are in the middle of a two-year run of DLC for Mario Kart 8 on the original Switch. Not impossible, as it would be backwards compatible, and MK8 would likely be patched to run at increased resolution, but still quite unusual. And given what we've heard, it would seem very unlikely to me that the Dane powered model will launch any later than the end of 2023, so maybe that rules out the Dane model being Switch 2? Or maybe I'm just reading too much into Nintendo trying to get better return on all the assets built out for Mario Kart Tour?

I am starting to wonder if Nintendo are genuinely going to try to squeeze 8+ years out of Switch before releasing a successor. The sales of the console are obviously in a very good position going into its sixth year on the market, and Nintendo clearly have the capability to keep putting out successful software on it. I'm reminded of one of the quotes from the recent investor Q&A:



This is machine translated, so we probably shouldn't read too much into the specific wording, but I do wonder if both the Mario Kart 8 DLC, being spread out over two years, as well as a pro-style model featuring Dane, are both part of a transition into a focus on maintaining an active player base as hardware sales slow down. The Mario Kart DLC specifically, but also the NSO Expansion Pack in general does seem to be designed around increasing engagement among owners, and having a relatively low-cost subscription service which provides regular new DLC for extremely popular games is a great way to keep people engaged. Pro style consoles also, I would expect, sell in large part to people who have already bought the base console. Rather than being a way to extend the user-base, they're more about re-engaging players who may have bought the original console while it was the hot new thing, but spend less time on it now.

You bring up some things I’ve been noodling on. Below is my first post regarding this topic, and I initially argued that Nintendo will pursue a Pro strategy to extend the lifecycle of the Switch. My vision for the Pro probably translated to something you envisioned - 4SMs. More details below.

Hey all, new to this forum but I used to post on ResetEra (mostly the Nintendo tech thread and sales thread). It’s good to see many familiar faces/avatars.

I’m not a tech guy, I’m an investment analysts and Nintendo falls into my coverage.

I’ve been trying to figure out what Nintendo wants to do, and not what consumers want or techies dream of.

I think there are two scenarios here.

1. We get no new, higher performant hardware and Nintendo rides out the Mariko chip until it’s ready to launch the next gen. I don’t think we are getting next gen until holiday 2023 (the earliest). I also think everyone who believes in an iterative model (I.e., like the iPhone is wrong).

2. I have a new Nintendo Switch hardware theory. It’s sorta evil which makes me want to believe it’s real.

A 2022 Switch Pro based on Dane/Ampere but it will be just barely worth it. About 4x performance w/DLSS - enough to take games like BotW to 1440p docked and existing 1080p games to 4k. It will support more next gen/more demanding games but only at like 540p-720p docked.

I think they can sell 20m-40m units over 2- 3-years and then launch next gen in 2024-2025 on Nvidia 5nm.

The pros of this include:
-$400 price point; Gets consumers used to more expensive Nintendo hardware.
- Leaves plenty of room to market improved performance between Pro and Switch 2.
-Helps them resell more evergreen software and recoup any work they need to port/transfer games to the new hardware.

A little later I changed my mind. My perspective changed because I don’t see a way for the software schedule to offset the likely hardware decline. So my new theory was that Nintendo needed to launch new hardware and I started noodling on the idea of a successor based on @avol vision for Dane. After today’s direct, I’m re-calibrating again.

I wanted to add an addendum to this post.

In scenario #1 I said no new hardware until holiday 2023 at the earliest - but now I think that’s the latest it will occur.

I spend another day looking at my Nintendo model and I don’t think they can sell enough software to offset the decline in hardware that they are likely to see in this upcoming fiscal year and the one after that. They need a new piece of hardware.

Waiting until holiday 2023 would mean the console is ~7-years past launch and supporting it another 2-3 would mean a ~10-year life. That’s probably as good as it gets for hardware. The PS3 didn’t hit 10-years and PS4 will limp into year 10.

I’m still a little skeptical Dane will come out holiday 2022 as hardware should remain in the 20m-ish range and they should be able to match this fiscal years ~230m software units.

Nintendo is coming out swinging this year. I think they can sell another 20m-25m units but the strong selling rate just eats the remaining TAM faster.

I also think that the MK8 DLC signal they are starting to ramp up their succession plan. The DLC will drive more users to NSO and that’s step 1.

 

[Dekuman]

I know a lot of people were expecting Mario Kart 9/10 to be a launch title for the Switch 2.....and today it was revealed that MK8 is getting 6 massive DLC expansions until 2023.

It's an interesting and unexpected development, and I'm wondering what this means for Mario Kart 9/10 and the next Switch. A new MK now seems like it's a long ways off, and may not even be in development yet. And what that would mean for a Switch 2 given that Nintendo would probably want a new MK game to accompany the launch....I'm not sure.

MK9 seems like a lock for Switch 2, it's been my argument for a while.
The DLC ending in 2023 may not mean much as i assume there will be overlap between Switch/Switch2, that said, in a reverse of last year's direct, this year's direct so far being exclusively 2022 stuff tells us they may be saving Mario 3D platformer and MK9 guns for new hardware

 

[Sol]

MK9 seems like a lock for Switch 2, it's been my argument for a while.
The DLC ending in 2023 may not mean much as i assume there will be overlap between Switch/Switch2, that said, in a reverse of last year's direct, this year's direct so far being exclusively 2022 stuff tells us they may be saving Mario 3D platformer and MK9 guns for new hardware

It seems like Dane may indeed be a Pro and that the Switch 2 may be farther off than we would have though.

I agree that MK9 is likely as a Switch 2 launch title, but echoing some of the other comments here, it now seems that may be around 2026-2027.

This year we're getting Splatoon 3 and BOTW2, and by next summer we'll probably have a new 3D Mario as well. Those are Nintendo's big heavy hitters all coming out in late 2022/early 2023. Given today's MK news, and the fact that it would be another 4-5 years for those aforementioned major titles to see a new entry, 2026-2027 looks about right for a successor.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Such a peculiar density, unless they went hard with the bus width and end up with like 192-bit.
I'm still a bit skeptical of SK Hynix's '18 GB' LPDDR5, as the announcement press release cites them supplying 18 GB LPDDR5 for the ASUS ROG 5, but the highest config for that phone is 16 GB from what I can see.

But I'm more surprised by the '+4 GB'. The article says that's 'part of the new trendy feature' using some storage as memory.
...Page/swap files are a new trend for smartphones?

Phones historically tend to just kill processes when RAM runs low.

I know a lot of people were expecting Mario Kart 9/10 to be a launch title for the Switch 2.....and today it was revealed that MK8 is getting 6 massive DLC expansions until 2023.

It's an interesting and unexpected development, and I'm wondering what this means for Mario Kart 9/10 and the next Switch. A new MK now seems like it's a long ways off, and may not even be in development yet. And what that would mean for a Switch 2 given that Nintendo would probably want a new MK game to accompany the launch....I'm not sure.

Mario Kart isn't really a typical launch title, so the lack of a new one doesn't really say much.

All the Direct really says is that Switch 1 isn't ending anytime soon. When Switch 2 begins is another matter entirely.

 

[Dekuman]

It seems like Dane may indeed be a Pro and that the Switch 2 may be farther off than we would have though.

I agree that MK9 is likely as a Switch 2 launch title, but echoing some of the other comments here, it now seems that may be around 2026-2027.

This year we're getting Splatoon 3 and BOTW2, and by next summer we'll probably have a new 3D Mario as well. Those are Nintendo's big heavy hitters all coming out in late 2022/early 2023. Given today's MK news, and the fact that it would be another 4-5 years for those aforementioned major titles to see a new entry, 2026-2027 looks about right for a successor.

i think that's just branding at this point. The 48 courses wouldn't take the entire MK team years to build and. If anything they are just building up to MK9 basically building ontop of 8, perhaps carrying over all MK8 courses.

I still think MK9 is coming in the next few years. This is just DLC to squeeze extra money out of existing MK8 owners.

 

[Skittzo]

i think that's just branding at this point. The 48 courses wouldn't take the entire MK team years to build and. If anything they are just building up to MK9 basically building ontop of 8, perhaps carrying over all MK8 courses.

I still think MK9 is coming in the next few years. This is just DLC to squeeze extra money out of existing MK8 owners.

I'd be shocked if they release a new Mario Kart less than 2-3 years after they finish selling DLC for the previous one. Not necessarily because of the team being busy with the DLC, though that's probably a part of it, but mainly because that erodes consumer trust. Why would you buy DLC for the old game if they were just planning to release a new one a year later?

That may work for annual or semi-annual releases but for games that usually release every 5 or so years (if not more) that's a bad look.

 

[Dekuman]

I'd be shocked if they release a new Mario Kart less than 2-3 years after they finish selling DLC for the previous one. Not necessarily because of the team being busy with the DLC, though that's probably a part of it, but mainly because that erodes consumer trust. Why would you buy DLC for the old game if they were just planning to release a new one a year later?

That may work for annual or semi-annual releases but for games that usually release every 5 or so years (if not more) that's a bad look.

They team worked on Animal Crossing last right? That one's DLC is done as well, they certainly would have had enough time to build 9 for a few years now. I'm just not convinced 8 having DLC means 9 isn't coming anytime soon. I still think 9 is for the next Switch. My thinking is, Switch is pretty much tapped out , they will push 9 on new hardware with a new gimmick or just advertise it as 4K 60FPS to show off the hardware.

 

[Skittzo]

They team worked on Animal Crossing last right? That one's DLC is done as well, they certainly would have had enough time to build 9 for a few years now. I'm just not convinced 8 having DLC means 9 isn't coming anytime soon. I still think 9 is for the next Switch. My thinking is, Switch is pretty much tapped out , they will push 9 on new hardware with a new gimmick or just advertise it as 4K 60FPS to show off the hardware.

Animal Crossing is EPD5, with Splatoon. Mario Kart is EPD9.

Like I said I don't think it has nearly as much to do with the availability of the development team as it does the positioning of the DLC in terms of consumer perception and trust.


As for new hardware that doesn't mean new gen, this direct has convinced me even more that Dane will be an iterative upgrade and not a new gen successor.

 

[Dekuman]

Animal Crossing is EPD5, with Splatoon. Mario Kart is EPD9.

Like I said I don't think it has nearly as much to do with the availability of the development team as it does the positioning of the DLC in terms of consumer perception and trust.


As for new hardware that doesn't mean new gen, this direct has convinced me even more that Dane will be an iterative upgrade and not a new gen successor.

I think you put too much stock in DLCs, MK8 has been out for 5 years this year, it will be 6-7 by time MK9 is released on the next Switch.
If the MK team's last game was ARMS, then that's stronger evidence they've been working on 9 since at least 2018. The DLC is absolutely to monetize the massive MK8 userbase, not a secret delay of 9. I just don't read it that way.

Nintendo knows they can absolutely sell MK9 with new hardware and need it for new hardware, whatever you call it (pro/2/etc), MK8 with DLCs won't do the job

 

[NineTailSage]

Qualcomm's 8 nm** SoCs aren't exactly comparable to the Exynos 9820 since all of the Qualcomm's 8 nm** SoCs are mid-range SoCs, and use only two performance CPU cores (here, here, here, and here). And the Exynos 9820 is a flagship SoC with two M4 cores and two Cortex-A75 cores used as performance cores.

Also, unlike mobile SoCs, high performance computing (HPC) chips, such as GPUs, generally don't use high density cell libraries.
The Apple A13 Bionic has a transistor density of ~86.312 MTr/mm² ([8.5 billion transistors]/[98.48 mm²]). On the other hand, Navi 21 has a transistor density of ~51.607 MTr/mm² ([26.8 billion transistors]/[519.31 mm²]). As shown, Navi 21 is ~50.33% less dense than the Apple A13 Bionic, or ~55.45% less dense than TSMC's N7P process node's theoretical max transistor density of 91.20 MTr/mm². (The Apple A13 Bionic and Navi 21 (probably) were fabricated using TSMC's N7P process node.)
Considering that GA102 has a transistor density of ~43.614 MTr/mm² ([28 billion transistors]/[~642 mm²]), GA102 being ~33.52% less dense than Samsung's 8LPP process node's theoretical max transistor density of 61.18 MTr/mm² sounds about right and is actually not bad.


I think SK Hynix's referring to the ASUS ROG Phone 5 Ultimate.

I was thinking about this as well, and there are a few data points we can use to estimate the difference between Samsung's 8N process and TSMC's N6. On the transistor density side it's fairly easy to estimate, as we know that all of Nvidia's Ampere parts have come in at around 45MT/mm2, with Orin coming in at 45.6MT/mm2, so it's extremely likely that Dane will have a similar density if and when it's manufactured on 8nm. Meanwhile, I'm not aware of any actual transistor density measurements from N6 chips, but TSMC claim that it offers 18% higher density than their (non-EUV) N7 process. Nvidia manufacture the A100 GPU on the N7 process, and it comes in at 65.6MT/mm2, so we could estimate that a Nvidia chip on N6 would hit around 77.4MT/mm2. This is about 70% higher transistor density than they're getting on Samsung 8N. Of course the density scaling might not be exactly what TSMC claim, and a gaming SoC may not line up exactly in logic density with a HPC GPU, but it's probably a reasonably close estimate.

For power consumption it's a bit trickier. We do have the Mediatek Dimensity 1100 and 1200, and the Qualcomm Snapdragon 778G phone SoCs, which are manufactured on N6 and feature A78 CPU cores, but it's difficult to get precise power measurements for them. I found reviews of phones featuring the Dimensity 1200 and Snapdragon 778G including power measurements during Geekbench runs here and here. However these are full system power measurements, and due to the unclear testing methodology (they don't specify whether it's single-core or multi-core Geekbench) and seeming inconsistencies (eg the lower-clocked 778G based phone seeing much larger power consumption spikes than the higher-clocked Dimensity 1200 based phone), it's not really enough to make any conclusions from, unfortunately.

We still haven't been notified of the full specs on GA107 yet but seeing as how GA102=43Mtr², GA104=44Mtr² and GA106=48Mtr², could they have achieved higher densities on both the GA107 and Orin SoC?

Have we gotten updated recent die size and transistor density for Orin yet besides what was originally projected?

 

[Dakhil]

We still haven't been notified of the full specs on GA107 yet but seeing as how GA102=43Mtr², GA104=44Mtr² and GA106=48Mtr², could they have achieved higher densities on both the GA107 and Orin SoC?

Have we gotten updated recent die size and transistor density for Orin yet besides what was originally projected?

Definitely possible.

No, since Nvidia hasn't made the Jetson AGX Orin devkits available yet. (And the Jetson Orin NX's practically a binned version of the Jetson AGX Orin.)

 

[mariodk18]

MK10 won’t be at launch, as we’ve never had a MK launch title for a system. Switch 2 will sell out at launch regardless due to fans and scalpers anyway. Makes more sense to launch a core title like a Zelda or Mario. I do think it will launch within the first two years though.

 

[ArchedThunder]

if Dane Switch is to release in teh 1-2 years, Nintendo would have already obtained their allocation

I don’t know why people think Nintendo wouldn’t have already made orders.

 

[Vladimir]

Guys, with Xenoblade 3 announced to come out this September, what are the chances of the Dane Switch lunching alongside it? Similar to the OLED releasing with the Metroid Dread last year. The game looks amazing already but I can't stop thinking of how epic it would be to have it be the first title to showcase a stronger piece of hardware.

 

[Alovon11]

Guys, with Xenoblade 3 announced to come out this September, what are the chances of the Dane Switch lunching alongside it? Similar to the OLED releasing with the Metroid Dread last year. The game looks amazing already but I can't stop thinking of how epic it would be to have it be the first title to showcase a stronger piece of hardware.

Honestly I feel the fall release schedule for 2022 strengthens Dane's window there.

XBC3, BOTW2, Potential Mario Game in tandem with the Mario Movie.etc

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

8SM should probably equate to 32 TMU's and 16ROP's




The Van Gogh apu in the Steam Deck has a roughly 162mm2 die size on 7nm, I think an 8 core CPU/8SM Dane on 8nm could come in under that size. Even if the Ampere architecture takes up more die space than RDNA2, ARM cores should balance some of that out between the Zen2 cores in Van Gogh.

They can but I'm not sure if they will. It comes at a leverage of the situations

Granted looking at the steam deck teardown at Gamers Nexus, the chip is absolutely tiny

I believe the structure for all of the GA102, 104, 106 and 107 are 12SM's per GPC and some of those variations are cut down from their full chip.
The TMU's and Tensor core amounts are equal to their respective SM (which both equal 4TMU's and 4Tensor cores per SM).
The math seems to work out for Ampere that there are either 16 or 24ROP's allocated per GPC, GA102 and 106 seems like their ROP's are (16), while GA104 and 107 seem to be (24) per GPC.

considering it is an AI aimed chip, ORIN probably follows a similar format to the GA100 datacenter GPU that is 64TMU+24ROPs. My math for the layout of TMU and ROPs was only dividing the amount by the amount of GPCs which gave me an even number, the other method of doing it by SM gave me a half which I found wrong.



On another note, due to this tweet:


we have proposed that Nintendo will turn the pro into the successor, after sometime, as an iterative platform. However, due to shortages and the capacity being booked for several years, it seems like if they haven't booked it now they haven't booked it for a long while.

Now, while we say that.... what's stopping them from just turning the switch 2 into the switch pro instead? Now, this sounds really simple and doesn't give much detail, but with the software stack for this year seeming to be absolutely stacked in terms of software, makes you wonder what software they would have that would sell the system anytime soon. MK9? that's not coming now. Zelda? lol no, same for Splatoon who goes through console level of development. Animal Crossing? nope, those barely come and the current one is still doing really well. Mario Odyssey 2 could be one but it could be tied to a movie (just a hunch, not a rumor really) and makes more sense to release with the current switch that sits at 100M players, Pokemon? Have they ever been there at the first year? They always come later to stretch the platform out like Animal Crossing. Fire emblem isn't a seller like the others, nor is a Xenoblade who would be on "break" until the next title, Donkey Kong? It's been mostly absent with the switch besides the port, and I'm not sure of its system selling potential. Luigi's Mansion 4 maybe but NLG might have been with Mario Strikers game if they did in fact develop this game, and NLG gives a lot of polish for their titles.

Nintendo would be going through their cycles with development for software that can span 4-5 years between titles, if they are at the release phase of their cycle so something like the next-next Zelda new mainline won't be seen for a while.

Let's propose that Nintendo did have a window for 2023 release or 2024 release, it makes no difference as it just means they are releasing a new device in the future for the sake of conversation. So, they could have, due to the shortages, needed to redo their plans and especially due to the capacity being booked for some semiconductor fabs for years now. So, while the Dane model could have been aligned for a later launch with say.... BOTW2, Prime(????), Mario Odyssey2 or an MK9, Nintendo opted to cut the idea of a 2 now in which they needed to, refocused on boosting the sales of the switch as much as possible to make it as successful as it can be with their first party offerings, to just make the platform have the largest install base, and offset the small install base of dane as it releases with no new noteworthy software. Just the same software as the switch. Them wanting a single platform here.


in essence, there is no switch 2, but these only apply if they did have a chip awaiting a tape out and if the got fab space in like.... 2020 or so? 19? basically ahead of the actual release to secure a spot for years.

and with the "successor", releasing several years later obviously, they will abandon both and push for software for the new platform while maintaining backwards compatibility with the switch and its models, but the "switch 2" offering a different dynamic that sets it apart from he switch like how the 3DS was like the DS but had a different dynamic set for it to differentiate it.

only an idea, nothing indicates that this is what they will do, but a sort of contingency of sorts.

it isn't an iterative strategy, its the same strategy as before, but stretched out really far.

Think GB->GBC who were both succeeded by the GBA which would be different in a way than the predecessor in the case of the switch. So Dane would do and act like the switch/lite/oled in portable mode And like the Switch/Oled in docked but just a smoother experience.

And it uses eMMC.

I need to add, sorry. I say all this as today it has been shown even more clear what was shown before and that is that they have full intentions of supporting the switch and will do so for a while. But the other part of me recognizes that a chip is potentially in the works already and exists, hence a codename we have for it. Now, @Vash_the_Stampede did propose an interesting perspective that it is actually a much more underpowered thing with modern features, but I view it from a different angle with perhaps a similar standing. Vash viewed that it isn't a 2 but a pro and has specs suited for a pro, and that they aren't doing an iterative strategy. I'm coming to the conclusion they perhaps had the full intention of having a successor and had the specifications for the successor, but due to external factors had to "repurpose" it to fit the role of a pro instead of a 2. I am not referring to what Microsoft is doing or Sony is doing with the PS5 and Series consoles, contrary to that actually. What I am implying here is that they are looking to have the pro but will not have the eventual drop of the old platform in favor of the PS5 and Series consoles, but that both will be supported for years to come unlike the PS4 and Xbox One.

 

[Mildudon]

I know a lot of people were expecting Mario Kart 9/10 to be a launch title for the Switch 2.....and today it was revealed that MK8 is getting 6 massive DLC expansions until 2023.

It's an interesting and unexpected development, and I'm wondering what this means for Mario Kart 9/10 and the next Switch. A new MK now seems like it's a long ways off, and may not even be in development yet. And what that would mean for a Switch 2 given that Nintendo would probably want a new MK game to accompany the launch....I'm not sure.

As far as I know no new Mario Kart has launched alongside a console day and date.

 

[Wockio]

MK10 won’t be at launch, as we’ve never had a MK launch title for a system. Switch 2 will sell out at launch regardless due to fans and scalpers anyway. Makes more sense to launch a core title like a Zelda or Mario. I do think it will launch within the first two years though.

As far as I know no new Mario Kart has launched alongside a console day and date.

Every home console launched with mainline Mario until they didn't
Pokemon games usually launch around the holidays, always developed by Game Freak and certainly NEVER in a month like January until they didn't
Nintendo consoles since the Wii come with a pack in title until they didn't

"It won't happen because it's never happened before despite nothing actively preventing it from happening" is shoddy reasoning

 

[Mildudon]

Every home console launched with mainline Mario until they didn't
Pokemon games usually launch around the holidays, always developed by Game Freak and certainly NEVER in a month like January until they didn't
Nintendo consoles since the Wii come with a pack in title until they didn't

"It won't happen because it's never happened before despite nothing actively preventing it from happening" is shoddy reasoning

Never said it would not happen. Those are your words not mine. What i am saying is that there is no precedent for it happing. Nothing more nothing less.

 

[RainTech]

Nintendo really blasting on all cylinders and still push the OG Switch so much, really changes the perspective.

I do still believe "Dane Switch" will come but it won't be as powerful as we now think.

If they treat it as a refresh only, still using the OG hardware as base for their games for a few more years, the HW really dosen't need to be as powerful.

If we get 2x Switch + DLSS + other minor improvements (WIFI, small Joycon adjustments), that would cut it. Yes, we all would like for Nintendo to go as hard as the formfactor allows BUT: The Smaller they can make the chip, the more they can squeeze out of a single wafer. We still are in a chip shortage. So having a more powerful model but it's a "modest upgrade" wich enables them to make more + keeping the OG alive makes more sense instead of having people freak out, trying desperately to get the new one. While the games on the new model will be shinier, they won't be so much better that you can take your time to upgrade or wait even for the real successor.

New games just run higher resolutions on it, added AA and DLSS. Maybe better texture filtering. I think that's about it.

 

[Dakhil]

So Nintendo has officially released the English translation of the Q&A for the financial results for the fiscal year ending on March 2022.

⋮

Q4:
Could you please explain the annual playing users metric in more detail? How does it compare to when you sold 100 million units of the Wii system? Do you see any connection between this metric and software sales trends? Also, what kinds of business decisions make use of this number of annual playing users? If the number of players remains at high levels or even increases, could it lead to a decision to postpone the launch of the next-generation game system?

A4:
Furukawa:
The annual playing users metric counts the number of users, out of all the Nintendo Accounts registered to Nintendo Switch systems, who started up at least one Nintendo Switch game during a given 12-month period. Our consumer base is highly diverse, and consumers vary greatly in how frequently they play games and how many games they purchase. So, looking at the number of playing users over 12 months, which is a long period of time, serves as a metric that helps to better understand our business.

We base our day-to-day business decisions on a variety of indicators including the number of annual playing users, according to the circumstances of the moment.

As for comparisons with the Wii system, Wii and Nintendo Switch have very different feature sets, and the software lineup and the way titles are played on them are also different. Moreover, the game industry and the environment surrounding our company have changed significantly since the time of the Wii launch in 2006. Nintendo Switch has reached the same level of cumulative sales of 100 million units, but we do not make simple comparisons with Wii.

The fact that so many consumers are playing Nintendo Switch creates a greater opportunity for people to pick up new titles when they are released in the future. With Nintendo Switch's user engagement rising to record levels toward the end of last year, we believe the platform is heading into its sixth year with strong momentum.

There are currently nearly 100 million annual playing users, and going forward, it is important to consider how we can maintain and expand on that number. This will also be essential when we consider our plan for the next hardware platform.

Q5:
This is about initiatives related to the metaverse and to NFTs. In one respect, you could say you have already taken the initiative with Animal Crossing: New Horizons, but the metaverse has such large potential, so I'd like to know your views to the extent you can share at this time.

A5:
Furukawa:
The metaverse has captured the attention of many companies around the world, and it has great potential. When the concept of the metaverse is introduced in the media, games like Animal Crossing: New Horizons are sometimes brought up as examples. In that sense, the metaverse is of interest to us.

But at this point in time, there is no easy way to define specifically what kinds of surprises and enjoyment the metaverse can deliver to our consumers. As a company that provides entertainment, our main emphasis is on ways to deliver fresh surprises and fun to our consumers. We might consider something if we can find a way to convey a "Nintendo approach" to the metaverse that many people can readily understand, but we do not think that is the situation at the present time.

⋮

Q7:
I have a question about hardware manufacturing costs. It appears that costs are rising slightly due to the current semiconductor shortage, but what degree of impact does that have on gross profit? Also, going forward, will you increase production volume to secure the required volume of hardware even if costs rise, or do you decide production volume while taking costs into account to a certain degree?

A7:
Furukawa:
Nintendo Switch was launched several years ago, and we have continued to work to reduce costs, but the recent component shortages are leading to increased costs. And even though the rise is gradual, it has been impacting our gross profit. Looking at the full year, we anticipate that impact to be minor this fiscal year, but if costs continue at current levels through next fiscal year as well, then we would expect hardware profitability to decrease correspondingly compared to this fiscal year. In addition, as has already been mentioned, Nintendo Switch – OLED Model has a lower profit margin than Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch Lite. Unless the situation changes dramatically, we do not foresee profitability improving next fiscal year and beyond. That said, these cost increases do not affect our production plans, and we will continue to produce the volume required to meet demand.

⋮

 

[Hermii]

So Nintendo has officially released the English translation of the Q&A for the financial results for the fiscal year ending on March 2022.

You are always so insanely fast!

 

[mariodk18]

Basically what Iwata said when he was referencing the iOS model. Not necessarily the hardware entirely, but the idea of avoiding "hard cut offs" and start overs for ecosystems. The next Switch type hardware that has enhanced hardware will absolutely be BC to a degree.

 

[Hermii]

So Nintendo has officially released the English translation of the Q&A for the financial results for the fiscal year ending on March 2022.

"There are currently nearly 100 million annual playing users, and going forward, it is important to consider how we can maintain and expand on that number. This will also be essential when we consider our plan for the next hardware platform."

Sounds to me, they are in no hurry to abandon the user base. I doubt they are working on Dane exclusives at all, at this point.

 

[Dakhil]

Based on the Q&A, Nintendo seems to be implying quite strongly that the DLSS model* is an iterative successor, considering Nintendo's emphasis on maintaining and expanding the nearly 100 million annual playing users for the next hardware platform.

And considering Nintendo mentioned the OLED model has a lower profit margin than the Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo Switch Lite due to the price of electrical components increasing due to the global chip shortage, I don't think the DLSS model* having a MSRP in the range of $449.99 - $499.99 is completely out of the question.