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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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10k said:
You are not getting a 1536 Cuda core GPU and 8 core CPU with a battery, OLED screen and likely 12GB of RAM on a 5nm process for $399. The break even price for that with inflation is likely already $450+.

They are also not going to launch their next gen console to only be $100 more than their OLED model.
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I don’t expect an OLED screen, and isn’t 256GB of UFS 3.1 pretty cheap right now?
Also I’d argue the price of the Switch OLED is totally irrelevant, they’re not going to make Drake more expensive just because they can’t drop the Switch OLED’s price more. The more expensive the Switch 2 is the less appealing it is.
 
Don't they save on costs if multiple components are from Samsung, and if they reuse the screens from the OLED which is already in production ?
 
Serif said:
It was.

The only Switch exclusive content was some extra items via the Switch news app.
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This thread is giving me mixed messages!

ArchedThunder said:
I don’t expect an OLED screen, and isn’t 256GB of UFS 3.1 pretty cheap right now?
Also I’d argue the price of the Switch OLED is totally irrelevant, they’re not going to make Drake more expensive just because they can’t drop the Switch OLED’s price more. The more expensive the Switch 2 is the less appealing it is.
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Why wouldn't you expect an oled screen? Shit is cheap now because there are so many providers now.
 
Serif said:
TOSE ported BotW to Switch starting in Spring 2016 as the Wii U version was still being finished. These are not the best circumstances for an optimized port in the first place, and they admitted as much.

BotW already implements a lot of LoD and loading tricks (there is actually no vertical loading in the game) designed around the 1-2 GB of RAM available to it on the Wii U. On the Switch, at minimum it has 50% more RAM, at most triple. Not to mention the other spec bumps.

This has had one of their best first party dev teams working on it for six years on an already solid game engine. I do not expect it to perform worse, at worst the same.
Click to expand...

I'm wondering, how did you find out about TOSE porting BOTW? Was it from an interview?

It's pretty neat reading about this sort of information. Do you have any other interesting information about the development?
 
Bullying is a serious accusation. Please don’t make it lightly. - Red Monster, PixelKnight, Irene, Derachi
Vash said:
lol the smiley face doesn't make this a nice statement
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My original message was very harmless and merely stating an opinion, but there's a little clique of wannabe bullies who have decided to dissect every message I'll post here to find bad intentions on my side. I think that smileys are an appropriate answer.
 
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So according to MZ, Samsung's OLED panels were sent to assemblers to have SWOLED mass manufacturing start in July of 2021.
Samsung Display Co. will start mass production of 7-inch, 720p-resolution OLED panels as early as June with an initial monthly target of just under a million units, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing internal matters. The displays are slated for shipment to assemblers around July, the people said.
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Nintendo Co. plans to begin assembly of its new Switch as soon as July and release the upgraded replacement for its four-year-old game console in September or October, people familiar with the matter said.
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So that's about a 3 month lead time for a model with more differences, especially to internals, than the lite model. So, personally, I'm giving another month (until mid-Feb) before I put a Zelda launch to rest.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
After BOTW got patched I found its performance to be mostly fine. It still dipped but it never felt crazy. We'll have to see when it drops. There hasn't been enough footage for me to get a good grasp on how much they improved the technology. I would hope they use an upscaling solution similar to XC3 since that imrpoves output resolution while reducing rendering load.

I am not expecting a massive jump but something that looks noticeably better while running more consistently. If other games throughout the Switch generation have been able to improve their feature set I would think Zelda should be able to as well.
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Oh, i replayed it a couple of times. except for a handful moments (mainly the korok forest) it runs pretty much smooth and loads way faster then on release.
Thats also one of the reasons i think people are missing the mark:
it did release on launch, but got fixes and improvements during the the years after its launch. v 1.5 was launched after the second DLC 10 months after the game, and update 1.6 was 2 years after the release. While those did go out with actual changes (DLC, additional languages, Toy Con support)
it also improved stability a lot.

It is possible that the game does look better, and the trailers just did not shot it well... but then again, wouldn't they want to show aspects that look better?
Also, people mention that Wii U and Switch versions where the same but the wii u had less ram... yeah, it had, but the switch did use uncompressed audio (or far less compressed) and had a higher resolution with a stable framerate, so some of that increased power was used by the game.

Well see. i really hope that it improves, i just don't expect a big jump.
 
Hermii said:
If anyone has actually been saying that, it's nice if you quote them.

There's no doubt this Zelda will be much better optimized than the last one.
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Maybe botw with better lighting, shadows and Lol. If it visually looks better detail wise while maintaining the same resolution, framerate and draw distance than botw, I'll be happy. I'd rather have that than 1080p 30fps, but that's because I'm selfish and want it even prettier on Drake.
 
Kevin said:
I believe the leak because it lines up with everything I've been seeing in terms of movement. I'm guessing an early 2024 launch though I'm hoping for sooner then that. Personally I'm really surprised they don't just release Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom as a crossgen title again. Really I feel that made a lot of sense.
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Maybe Nintendo wanted to stop the assumption/association New Zelda Game = New Console

Hence releasing Zelda Tears of the Kingdom in May, no matter what, and not as a cross gen title.

Plus they already originally delayed BOTW. Delaying TotK for Switch 2 might upset a lot of people and it is the most anticipated game for 2023.
 
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ArchedThunder said:
I don’t expect an OLED screen, and isn’t 256GB of UFS 3.1 pretty cheap right now?
Also I’d argue the price of the Switch OLED is totally irrelevant, they’re not going to make Drake more expensive just because they can’t drop the Switch OLED’s price more. The more expensive the Switch 2 is the less appealing it is.
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Switch 2 is going to be marketed as a premium product and early adopters are always the ones you can get away with charging high prices on. PS5, Series X and Steamdeck has taught us that people are willing to pay for premium devices, even during inflation.

Switch 2 is almost certainly going to reuse the same panels the OLED model uses for cost saving measures as Serif mentioned. 720p also drains less money in portable mode than 1080p.

If you add all the components together and the two joy-cons (which may have some new feature) I don't see this thing being anywhere near $399 (maybe a model with no dock and minimal storage, like 64GB?)
Serif said:
Don't they save on costs if multiple components are from Samsung, and if they reuse the screens from the OLED which is already in production ?
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Yes.
 
BOTW ran fine. Even very fine after the patches. The only places where I remember noticing some frame drops were the forest and the village; and neither places had gameplay necessitating a good frame rate anyway.
 
10k said:
You are not getting a 1536 Cuda core GPU and 8 core CPU with a battery, OLED screen and likely 12GB of RAM on a 5nm process for $399. The break even price for that with inflation is likely already $450+.

They are also not going to launch their next gen console to only be $100 more than their OLED model.
Click to expand...
To be fair, we don't know what the chip that nvidia is providing will cost Nintendo per unit, if it ends up being a similar size to the original tx1 I don't imagine it being vastly more expensive when price adjusted for inflation. If Razer can produce the edge for $400 with its specs, Nintendo with its infinitely higher buying power can surely do similar, so I expect 256gb UFS 3.1, 12GB RAM and an OLED screen for £400.

As for release timing, for me it has to be 2023 with the information we have as I have previously explained, but when looking at a May vs Holiday release its hard to call.

Reasons for May release:
Launch with Zelda to mimic original switch release.
Mario movie in April would be good as part of the marketing cycle.
Silicon in some form has existed for over a year.
Longer manufacturing ramp up to meet holiday demand.
Some factory uncles hint toward a manufacturing ramp up in January.

Reasons for Holiday release:
Release alongside big holiday title would also provide a strong launch.
Using same launch time line as original switch engineering samples appeared 18 months before release so October is 18 months after the evidence we have regarding drake.
Some tx1 chips present within the launch batch of original launch consoles were a year old, if final silicon existed in August for drake this also lines up.

These are the big points for me, I'm inclined to lean towards holiday 2023 given what we know of tx1 but it was an existing chip and as such a completely different scenario. I also would like to think nvidia has improved their design to release time frame given new ai tools aiding them in chip design.

But honestly, I cannot pick between the two, one thing I am pretty sure on is that the evidence for 2024 is lacking.
 
ArchedThunder said:
It’s still more expensive, is it not? And it drains more battery than a basic LCD doesn’t it?
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Price-wise they should be near parity. And when you're selling a premium product, there's no reason to go with lcd.

As for battery, oled draws less battery when not displaying all white screens. Part of it is due to the lower overall brightness. Which is why white screens draw more power than lcd at equal brightness, since you gotta pump more juice through it
 
arsen said:
The opposite.
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Everything I can find online says OLED drains more power, is there something somewhere that shows the opposite at smaller sizes? I can only find data going as low as 32 inches.
10k said:
Switch 2 is going to be marketed as a premium product and early adopters are always the ones you can get away with charging high prices on. PS5, Series X and Steamdeck has taught us that people are willing to pay for premium devices, even during inflation.

Switch 2 is almost certainly going to reuse the same panels the OLED model uses for cost saving measures as Serif mentioned. 720p also drains less money in portable mode than 1080p.

If you add all the components together and the two joy-cons (which may have some new feature) I don't see this thing being anywhere near $399 (maybe a model with no dock and minimal storage, like 64GB?)

Yes.
Click to expand...
Steam Deck is a low volume product, and Xbox and PS are targeting people who want the best console graphics and performance. I feel like the more you go over $400 the worse the value proposition is, especially since you can get a PS5 for $400. Pricing high for early adopters isn’t a long term strategy you can rely on any more since prices don’t drop like they used to, that’s the whole reason the Xbox series S exists.
I think you’re over estimating how much Nintendo would have to pay.
 
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Layalseif said:
I'm wondering, how did you find out about TOSE porting BOTW? Was it from an interview?

It's pretty neat reading about this sort of information. Do you have any other interesting information about the development?
Click to expand...

They're listed in the credits under Nintendo SDK development team and they're usually known for ports, and they don't seem to have worked on any other Zelda game, so I put two and two together. Also, on Tose's website they mention games that they helped develop (Splatoon 2) but they seem not to include ports they've worked on. BotW isn't there, so I don't think they codeveloped it like MonolithSoft, but instead the port was outsourced to them while the main Nintendo teams finished development. Sorry I don't have a more definitive answer.

Here's the source for the port having been started in Spring 2016.

Here's a GDC talk they gave about the process.



Here's the source for no vertical loading, and here's a video about LoD tricks.

 
Serif said:
They're listed in the credits under Nintendo SDK development team and they're usually known for ports, and they don't seem to have worked on any other Zelda game, so I put two and two together. Also, on Tose's website they mention games that they helped develop (Splatoon 2) but they seem not to include ports they've worked on. BotW isn't there, so I don't think they codeveloped it like MonolithSoft, but instead the port was outsourced to them while the main Nintendo teams finished development. Sorry I don't have a more definitive answer.

Here's the source for the port having been started in Spring 2016.

Here's a GDC talk they gave about the process.



Here's the source for no vertical loading, and here's a video about LoD tricks.

Click to expand...

Thanks for posting all that information!! And replying. Now to go watch those videos.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
To be fair, we don't know what the chip that nvidia is providing will cost Nintendo per unit, if it ends up being a similar size to the original tx1 I don't imagine it being vastly more expensive when price adjusted for inflation. If Razer can produce the edge for $400 with its specs, Nintendo with its infinitely higher buying power can surely do similar, so I expect 256gb UFS 3.1, 12GB RAM and an OLED screen for £400.

As for release timing, for me it has to be 2023 with the information we have as I have previously explained, but when looking at a May vs Holiday release its hard to call.

Reasons for May release:
Launch with Zelda to mimic original switch release.
Mario movie in April would be good as part of the marketing cycle.
Silicon in some form has existed for over a year.
Longer manufacturing ramp up to meet holiday demand.
Some factory uncles hint toward a manufacturing ramp up in January.

Reasons for Holiday release:
Release alongside big holiday title would also provide a strong launch.
Using same launch time line as original switch engineering samples appeared 18 months before release so October is 18 months after the evidence we have regarding drake.
Some tx1 chips present within the launch batch of original launch consoles were a year old, if final silicon existed in August for drake this also lines up.

These are the big points for me, I'm inclined to lean towards holiday 2023 given what we know of tx1 but it was an existing chip and as such a completely different scenario. I also would like to think nvidia has improved their design to release time frame given new ai tools aiding them in chip design.

But honestly, I cannot pick between the two, one thing I am pretty sure on is that the evidence for 2024 is lacking.
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That Razer device is a big reason I don’t doubt Nintendo can do $399 with 256GB. That Razer device is going to be an incredibly low production volume, is using an off the shelf GPU and has to make all its money off of its hardware sales. Switch 2 is going to be a huge volume product, Nintendo is closely partnered with the maker of the custom GPU and they make their money on software and subscriptions.
Maybe it’d be a very thin profit margin, but I don’t think it’d be a loss.
Hermii said:
Looks real enough to me.
Click to expand...
The back doesn’t really look real to me.
 
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Layalseif said:
Speaking of that Chinese forum, has anyone seen the TotK box art that has been posted on there?

I'm leaning towards fake or promo box art.

Link to post
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Click to expand...
Elaborate enough to have the inside cover, but something about the positioning of Link and almost too much empty real estate on the front and back make me question its authenticity
 
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ArchedThunder said:
Everything I can find online says OLED drains more power, is there something somewhere that shows the opposite at smaller sizes? I can only find data going as low as 32 inches.
Click to expand...
Not an area of expertise, but considering they give the same battery life estimates for the systems with the 6.2" LCD screen and the 7" OLED, whatever difference in power must be pretty minimal.
 
Layalseif said:
Speaking of that Chinese forum, has anyone seen the TotK box art that has been posted on there?

I'm leaning towards fake or promo box art.

Link to post
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Click to expand...
no chance. a) no new material, seems to specific and old... but what really is the reason that its fake:
its way to early to prepare the cases. printing and shipping of those can happen way closer to release, and doing it now means they have to store them that way for way to long.

Essentially someone wanted it to look more valid by having multiple, so it looks like production instead of one printed sleeve put into a random switch case.
 
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The promo art makes for a good cover. I’ve had it in a similar position for my lock screen for a while.

Agreed that using no new images is strange. The existing images I assumed were carefully chosen to limit what they reveal in marketing - will they continue with those same ones all the way until launch?
 
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Serif said:
This site's just showing blank spaces for me no matter which browser, would someone be able to post the image in hide tags here? Even if fake I'm just that thirsty :'(
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It won't let me link the image :( Sorry Serif. Someone else more knowledgeable will have to do it.
 
Layalseif said:
Speaking of that Chinese forum, has anyone seen the TotK box art that has been posted on there?

I'm leaning towards fake or promo box art.

Link to post
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Click to expand...
ToTK boxart was already revealed tho

edit: yeah, it's fake. There is no way they are not using the new screenshots.
 
.
oldpuck said:
For some context for folks

@supmo is sort of our liason to some chinese fan forums. We were translating their stuff, supmo was translating ours, finally we just started talking. In general, they lurk here, and are usually pretty good at filtering obvious crap or folks with zero record, but they're not themselves a source, and that still puts it on us to do our due diligence

Since I believe supmo also helps those forums read some our speculation and discovery, use that as sort of your benchmark for the possible origins of this stuff. We've surfaced and discussed plenty of bullshit here, and even if someone were bringing the Choicest Bits from this thread to a chinese forum, some of it would be horse manure.

@LiC is also right about, even if this person is 100% who they claim to be and all their info is accurate, they're just guessing at the production calendar based on their narrow view of it.
Click to expand...

Missed this. Grain of salt and all, but any rumours maintaining a 2023 date are sustenance
 
Serif said:
This site's just showing blank spaces for me no matter which browser, would someone be able to post the image in hide tags here? Even if fake I'm just that thirsty :'(
Click to expand...

Here's the link to the image - it doesn't work if I post it as an image so it's just the link:

Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
 
Rogue Agent said:
Here's the link to the image - it doesn't work if I post it as an image so it's just the link:

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Click to expand...
This doesn't load either. :( It may need to be saved and reuploaded to an image hosting site for some of us. Maybe my ISP doesn't like Baidu or something lol.
 
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Aether said:
Oh, i replayed it a couple of times. except for a handful moments (mainly the korok forest) it runs pretty much smooth and loads way faster then on release.
Thats also one of the reasons i think people are missing the mark:
it did release on launch, but got fixes and improvements during the the years after its launch. v 1.5 was launched after the second DLC 10 months after the game, and update 1.6 was 2 years after the release. While those did go out with actual changes (DLC, additional languages, Toy Con support)
it also improved stability a lot.

It is possible that the game does look better, and the trailers just did not shot it well... but then again, wouldn't they want to show aspects that look better?
Also, people mention that Wii U and Switch versions where the same but the wii u had less ram... yeah, it had, but the switch did use uncompressed audio (or far less compressed) and had a higher resolution with a stable framerate, so some of that increased power was used by the game.

Well see. i really hope that it improves, i just don't expect a big jump.
Click to expand...

They did update the game but normally updates don't employ very new technologies since they have the potential to break stuff.

Things I expect or would make sense would be
  • Relatively stable framerate equal to or above BOTW
  • Temporal upsample to improve viewing resolution. Starting at 720p and upsampling to 1080p is a possibility and would save performance vs the 900p dynamic resolution setup they have used in BOTW
  • Improved texture work
  • Better LoDs

I think those things would provide a noticeable upgrade while being within the Switch's capabilities. BOTW is still very much a WiiU game. The Switch has more power and advanced features to play with on top of software advances. I don't anticipate a huge jump because I expect there to be gameplay innovations that are going to need to be considered but I think the visual makeup should see a bold step up.

We really need a long trailer or gameplay slice so stronger analysis can be done or digital foundry can observe. We are only 5 months off which suggest by March we should have a lot more footage.
 
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10k said:
You are not getting a 1536 Cuda core GPU and 8 core CPU with a battery, OLED screen and likely 12GB of RAM on a 5nm process for $399. The break even price for that with inflation is likely already $450+.
Click to expand...
To be fair, while I am one of the 5nm believers (right now, at least) it's not guaranteed, nor is the 12GB of RAM.

10k said:
They are also not going to launch their next gen console to only be $100 more than their OLED model.
Click to expand...
Why not? I'm not convinced that Nintendo is going to treat it as Premium option, instead of just Next Gen, but $150 over the base SKU screams "premium "to me.

The price driver isn't just BOM, but Nintendo's willingness to take a loss. Historically they haven't wanted to, but historically they haven't positioned the successor as a premium option either. Nintendo is sitting on a pile of cash, but also don't have a second handheld console line to fall back on - being in a position of power but with an uncertain future may produce a more forward thinking pricing strategy, running at cost and bet on node maturation and deflation to increase profits while leaving the price constant.

ShaunSwitch said:
To be fair, we don't know what the chip that nvidia is providing will cost Nintendo per unit, if it ends up being a similar size to the original tx1 I don't imagine it being vastly more expensive when price adjusted for inflation. If Razer can produce the edge for $400 with its specs, Nintendo with its infinitely higher buying power can surely do similar, so I expect 256gb UFS 3.1, 12GB RAM and an OLED screen for £400.
Click to expand...
I suspect that the Razer Edge is a bit of a show piece for Qualcomm, who are using it as devkits for their SOC. I suspect the SOC price is as close to profitless for Qualcomm as they felt they could get away with.

Collating various sources, it looks like RAM density and storage density have about doubled at cost, without adjusting for inflation. Similarly, the move from LCD to OLED is probably a rough even cost, as the OLED tech matures and LCD demand has caused manufacturers to back out, though it's unclear to me if 720p screens will remain cost viable, or if it would be smarter to get the platform on 1080p, even if it costs slightly more on launch day.

The original Switch was $299 at launch, and that's $363.15 adjusted for inflation. That leaves Nintendo ~$35 of wiggle room to spend on the SOC or any other upgrades. I don't know the exact price of the TX1 at launch, but the best data I can get suggests it's somewhere in the realm of $80.

8GB of RAM, 64GB of Storage and an OLED screen, plus Drake, probably fits into a $400 SKU, even accounting for inflation, without Nintendo having to take any kind of loss above and beyond what they did for the Switch. If Nintendo is going to spend elsewhere, RAM is going to be most likely. Storage is, I'm afraid, last on the list.

The other consideration is any non-performance updates - new joysticks, cameras, telepathic goo - also have to come out of that $35.

If Nintendo goes with a $450 SKU, then I won't be absolutely shocked, but a $400 SKU, adjusted for inflation, is roughly in keeping with their previous console launch prices, and would give them extra head room for the SOC while bringing the rest of the system up to 2022 par.
 
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One Solace I can take from all this no matter new hardware or not IM GOING TO BE PLAYING TOTK IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS 🤩and also i have faith that the Zelda team will have this game running smoothly
 
Layalseif said:
Speaking of that Chinese forum, has anyone seen the TotK box art that has been posted on there?

I'm leaning towards fake or promo box art.

Link to post
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Click to expand...
This is the image from that post.

Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
Click to expand...
 
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