StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[fwd-bwd]

New article from Bloomberg about investors and analysts believing stock is overvalued for Nintendo and Switch 2 won't be able to keep up with Switch success no matter what. Also Mochi mentions on Twitter that he has no clue about Switch 2 as of now.

Interested to hear @Shareholder Chad 's opinion on this. (I tend to agree with it personally.)

Nintendo’s Record Gain Tested in Wait for ‘Switch 2’: Tech Watch

Nintendo Co.’s recent climb to a record high is looking increasingly stretched as investors wait for news on the successor to its aging Switch game console.

www.bloomberg.com

I won’t give anyone investment advices, so this is purely a personal opinion: Pay little to no heed to these “predictions” or “forecasts” of stock valuation. Their main objective is to stimulate price movements either upward (pumping) or downward (fear-mongering) so that the professionals can profit by front-running retail investors. Otherwise, how do they make money when a company’s financial fundamentals largely remain stable YOY (flat stock price = no profit)? Case in point, any purportedly analyses of recent Nintendo (7974.TYO) stock performance without at least partially attributing it to the New NISA (introduced in 2024) is better not to be taken seriously.

 

[Raccoon]

Going from TeamSameSize to TeamFuckinHuge, huh? All or nothing? Gonna leave me alone down here, I guess.

Seriously though, yeah context matters! If you're buying a handheld it aughta have a certain smallness and portability to it, but if you're buying Nintendo Laptop™ that's a whole other set of expectations and is actually a neater idea imo than Switch-but-more-bigger.

You may be on to something here.

yeah I'm staying in a hotel right now with nothing packed due to sudden circumstances, and I've been thinking about having my switch oled with me vs the switch 2 vs something totally new

I really can't deny that the switch isn't a great handheld. for as much as I've argued for portability, what we have now is too big to really use on a park bench or whatever. it's really for trains, planes, hotel rooms, uni libraries, etc. and with that in mind I think I'd most like something more similar in size to a modern tablet but with a stand like the OLED model. there's no need to masquerade something of the switch's size as a handheld imo

even a tablet that goes in a laptop pocket with a loose pro controller (maybe with stick protectors included?) that goes... somewhere would be better in my mind than an 8+ inch diagonal handheld

 

[Toad King]

Most likely 6.
They'll probably use the BCM4375 (Wi-Fi 6 / BT5.0) from Boradcom as it seems an updated version of the one they are currently using on Switch (BCM4356). Or they could maybe use the BCM4389 (Wi-Fi 6E / BT5.2?) but I doubt it as it seems just extra cost for no real reason* (plus it's newer so less time to test it?).

BCM4375

The BCM4375 simultaneously implements two streams of 802

www.broadcom.com

BCM4389

Wi-Fi 6E and Bluetooth 5.0 combo chip designed for ultra-low power mobile device applications

www.broadcom.com

Edit: * aside from potentially better battery life

One advantage the newer chip would have is BT 5.2 brings LE Audio support.

 

[Deleted member 645]

Has no clue about the Switch 2.
Yeah it's not gonna do well.

People shouldn't be surprised. Can't believe people view them as credible.

 

[Apenknul]

Idk guys I just don't see the vision lol I think gamers like holding their games in the palm of there hands, some tangible they can pass around to friends or show off to people. Plus this vision goes against Nintendo bringing family together. VR is very isolating

Eh, they did make Labo VR, which I believe couldn't show the gameplay to other people aswell. Besides, wasn't it with PSVR that it streamed the gameplay both to the headset and TV? And if its a third optional way to play that you hold to you're own, and you have 2 other options to let people watch, would that be such a big let down. And with the first edition of the 3DS, no bystander could've watch your gameplay properly if you had the 3D effect on.

To each to their own off course, but I wouldn't burn the idea down

 

[Kintah]

One advantage the newer chip would have is BT 5.2 brings LE Audio support.

If it is BT5.2, that was my assumption hence the "?", for some reason they list it as 5 on the website but elsewhere online device that are reported to use it list BT 5.2


Edit: Both are 5.something. I don't understand why on broadcom's website they don't specify the .x
From the Bluetooth database:
BCM4375, reported as 5.3: https://launchstudio.bluetooth.com/ListingDetails/138187
BCM4389, reported as 5.2:

Launch Studio - Listing Details

Seeing as 4389 is newer I suspect they support the same stuff as far as Bluetooth. I wonder how you get the cert, if it its just licences or firmware/software and not actual hardware features. Super confusing.

 

[Darknut85]

People shouldn't be surprised. Can't believe people view them as credible.

People who think news outlets in generally are credible (besides some exceptions like DF) are beyond hope. People who believe analysts are credible just lack reading comprehension to look for their track records.

But seriously outside of famiboards there isn‘t really isn’t a place in the internet where people are speculating about Switch 2 on facts instead of fake rumors. The analysts at least have sometimes a more grounded take based on real information (but not often).

 

[Deleted member 645]

People who think news sites in generally are credible (besides some exceptions like Eurogamer) are beyond hope. People who believe analysts are credible just lack reading comprehension to look for their track records.

I wouldn't consider Eurogamer credible either.

 

[NateDrake]

People shouldn't be surprised. Can't believe people view them as credible.

View who as credible? Bloomberg is reporting the thoughts of analysts. This article is no different than those from earlier this month citing Serkan Toto when he gave his thoughts on Switch 2 features and timing.

 

[Darknut85]

I wouldn't consider Eurogamer credible either.

You‘re kinda right, but they‘re at least better than most of the other sites in that regard. And they got some things right on NX.

 

[carbvan]

Well this discussion kind of turned. This aggression towards an article because it isn't 100% positive is just weird. We were all just discussing the Bloomberg screen report a few days and how it was further proof of the 8 inch screen being real, but now that something positive isn't said in a speculation piece they were never credible in the first place?

Edited to remove insulting comparison. It was unnecessary. My bad.

 

[thegodsend]

View who as credible? Bloomberg is reporting the thoughts of analysts. This article is no different than those from earlier this month citing Serkan Toto when he gave his thoughts on Switch 2 features and timing.

On top, even if he got a reporting a bit wrong, he is still one of the most credible tech journalists in Japan - not just gaming.
Most people here don't have clues how reporting and sourcing works and are not interested in it sadly. It's a bit insane how much proper journalism is undervalued sometimes here while every rumor-monger on YT gets lots coverage.

Also no one should expect Mochi to have the understanding and knowledge of people like oldpuck in this thread, because frankly he doesn't have to.

In the end it's another take and a different perspective on Nintendo's plans and worth sharing and discussing and usually that is one of the more refreshing thing here, that we have some people with industry insights, some people with an understanding of the stock market, some people with an understanding of tech, and just a bunch of fans, coming together and trying to figure out and educating each other how some of the decisions in this industry are being made.

If some reports and sources are just bluntly ignored or devalued, it just hurts this discussion in the end.

 

[Darknut85]

Well this discussion kind of turned. Ngl this aggression towards an article because it isn't 100% positive about Nintendo is really coming off as that deluded Nintendo fan stereotype. We were all just discussing the Bloomberg screen report a few days and how it was further proof of the 8 inch screen being real, but now that something positive isn't said in a speculation piece they were never credible in the first place?

On shipping info they may be credible, but they never could, and never‘ll be able to predict the succes of a unannounced console based on stock. Especially since they predicted with more information that the Switch to flop and it turned out to be a huge success. And calling them out for not being credible in that regard isn‘t something I‘d consider „aggressive“. Bloomberg can be used for speculation of course, but you shouldn‘t take them at face value.

 

[NateDrake]

On top, even if he got a reporting a bit wrong, he is still one of the most credible tech journalists in Japan - not just gaming.
Most people here don't have clues how reporting and sourcing works and are not interested in it sadly. It's a bit insane how much proper journalism is undervalued sometimes here while every rumor-monger on YT gets lots coverage.

Also no one should expect Mochi to have the understanding and knowledge of people like oldpuck in this thread, because frankly he doesn't have to.

In the end it's another take and a different perspective on Nintendo's plans and worth sharing and discussing and usually that is one of the more refreshing thing here, that we have some people with industry insights, some people with an understanding of the stock market, some people with an understanding of tech, and just a bunch of fans, coming together and trying to figure out and educating each other how some of the decisions in this industry are being made.

If some reports and sources are just bluntly ignored or devalued, it just hurts this discussion in the end.

It's not even a Mochi article...

 

[lexony]

New article from Bloomberg about investors and analysts believing stock is overvalued for Nintendo and Switch 2 won't be able to keep up with Switch success no matter what. Also Mochi mentions on Twitter that he has no clue about Switch 2 as of now.

Interested to hear @Shareholder Chad 's opinion on this. (I tend to agree with it personally.)

Nintendo’s Record Gain Tested in Wait for ‘Switch 2’: Tech Watch

Nintendo Co.’s recent climb to a record high is looking increasingly stretched as investors wait for news on the successor to its aging Switch game console.

www.bloomberg.com

I don‘t think that the next console needs to sell as much as the Switch to be similarly successful. If they manage to sell around 70-80 Million Switch 2 in like 5 years (100 Million life time sales), their audience who now continuously buys new titles on the Switch would return and Nintendo can extend services like NSO, they are save to make similarly stellar profits.

 

[Zedark]

I don‘t think that the next console needs to sell as much as the Switch to be similarly successful. If they manage to sell around 70-80 Million Switch 2 in like 5 years (100 Million life time sales), their audience who now continuously buys new titles on the Switch would return and Nintendo can extend services like NSO, they are save to make similarly stellar profits.

Speaking of stellar profits: I expect Nintendo will bump their base service price in the near future to align closely with the next system launch. Their competitors get away with much higher fees for online play, after all, and it's an easy path for revenue growth.

 

[lexony]

On shipping info they may be credible, but they never could, and never‘ll be able to predict the succes of a unannounced console based on stock. Especially since they predicted with more information that the Switch to flop and it turned out to be a huge success. And calling them out for not being credible in that regard isn‘t something I‘d consider „aggressive“. Bloomberg can be used for speculation of course, but you shouldn‘t take them at face value.

Yes but this is the whole point of Analysts. They can give you their prediction about the future based on the market now. It dosen‘t matter if they are right or not as long as they can give someone who might is interested to buy Nintendo’s stock an outlook for at least this year about how careful they need to be with their asset and when they might want to sell it again. It literally is not the job of Analysts being right of the future, there is no point to judge their credibility at them being right. People need to understand that.

 

[carbvan]

On shipping info they may be credible, but they never could, and never‘ll be able to predict the succes of a unannounced console based on stock. Especially since they predicted with more information that the Switch to flop and it turned out to be a huge success. And calling them out for not being credible in that regard isn‘t something I‘d consider „aggressive“. Bloomberg can be used for speculation of course, but you shouldn‘t take them at face value.

The comments here about the Bloomberg article are not specifically about the market speculation though? People are just taking potshots at Bloomberg and even bringing up Eurogamer too despite both presenting valuable reports in the past. People are just downplaying Bloomberg's general credibility because the speculation article doesn't see Nintendo going to the moon. It comes off as really defensive and even hypocritical because Bloomberg has been used as a trusted source in the past.

 

[Darknut85]

Yes but this is the whole point of Analysts. They can give you their prediction about the future based on the market now. It dosen‘t matter if they are right or not as long as they can give someone who might is interested to buy Nintendo’s stock an outlook for at least this year about how careful they need to be with their asset and when they might want to sell it again. It literally is not the job of Analysts being right of the future, there is no point to judge their credibility at them being right. People need to understand that.

And that’s exactly the reason why we should be careful to use them as basis for speculation. For people who invest their trackrecord may not be important, but most of us are here to speculate on Switch 2 so it‘s important to note that analysts aren‘t the best base for that. Of course sometimes reports can have something of worth (for example the 8“ report recently).

 

[NineTailSage]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[Darknut85]

The comments here about the Bloomberg article are not specifically about the market speculation though? People are just taking potshots at Bloomberg and even bringing up Eurogamer too despite both presenting valuable reports in the past. People are just downplaying Bloomberg's general credibility because the speculation article doesn't see Nintendo going to the moon. It comes off as really defensive and even hypocritical because Bloomberg has been used as a trusted source in the past.

If you think so? I wouldn’t trust their outlook even if they said Switch 2 sells as much or more than Switch. Even through it selling less than Switch is likely and a safe bet. Eurogamer is more reliable than the rest but even they can‘t avoid the pitfalls of fake leaks and rumors. So you always have to check the sources, trackrecord, the facts etc. regardless how trusted a Site is. And calling people defensive and hypocritical just for mentioning their track record for predicting console sales doesn’t seem appropriate to me.

 

[LuigiV]

Don’t worry guys they’ll tell us at the investor meeting that they will give us more details in March… Right?

I'd give that scenario a 10% chance. Not likely but not entirely outside the realm of possibility.

More likely though, Nintendo won't say anything until April or May. Just a gut feeling.

 

[Raccoon]

let's rank mochis

1. black sesame
2. matcha
3. switch pro guy
4. normal
5. peanut

 

[Dakhil]

Since some people were talking about Wi-Fi/Bluetooth chips, is there a reason to believe Nintendo only plans to use a Wi-Fi/Bluetooth chip from only Broadcom for Nintendo's new hardware?

I think there's a possibility Nintendo could consider using a Wi-Fi/Bluetooth chip from companies other than Broadcom (e.g. Mediatek (Asus ROG Ally), Quectel (Steam Deck OLED), etc.) for Nintendo's new hardware.

 

[Mirev]

Keep in mind analysts said that Switch was going to be a failure.

 

[Thombias]

It would be funny if that supposed march reveal of whatever it's gonna be about is just an announcement of an announcement, like:

"The next generation of Nintendo Switch is coming soon! We will share more details in the following weeks/months, so please stay tuned!"

My pessimism says this will happen.

 

[Kintah]

Since some people were talking about Wi-Fi/Bluetooth chips, is there a reason to believe Nintendo only plans to use a Wi-Fi/Bluetooth chip from only Broadcom for Nintendo's new hardware?

I think there's a possibility Nintendo could consider using a Wi-Fi/Bluetooth chip from companies other than Broadcom (e.g. Mediatek (Asus ROG Ally), Quectel (Steam Deck OLED), etc.) for Nintendo's new hardware.

They have a history with Broadcom, at least ever since the Wii:

Broadcom Provides Bluetooth and Wi-Fi for Wii - News

www.nintendoworldreport.com

They worked together on the Wii U gamepad:

"With the wireless Wii U GamePad, Nintendo is able to deliver new experiences that transform the way people think about games, social interaction and entertainment. Broadcom's wireless technologies complement these experiences by providing innovative solutions that meet our unique requirements and deliver the wireless performance we need to make the integration seamless."

From: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...tendos-wii-u-gaming-experience-179936611.html

They made the NFC readers that Nintendo used so far (AFAIK)
The new 3ds uses a Broadcom BCM20791 (based on reverse engineering efforts I found on the nesdev forums) for it's NFC and the Wii U Gamepad a BCM4319XKUBG (according to iFixit).

I'd say it's a safe bet that they will go with Broadcom again. Now that I said this they'll go with Infineon/Cypress (they use them for their accessories like the NSO controllers and the pokeball plus). Both use the same software stack (BCM1200-BTEM)

 

[crazybenjamin]

It would be funny if that supposed march reveal of whatever it's gonna be about is just an announcement of an announcement, like:

"The next generation of Nintendo Switch is coming soon! We will share more details in the following weeks/months, so please stay tuned!"

My pessimism says this will happen.

It'll be an announcement of an announcement, because it'll say "Nintendo Switch 2 is coming! Tune in 1 week from now for a Nintendo Switch 2 Direct with more information!"

 

[topsekret]

let's rank mochis

1. black sesame
2. matcha
3. switch pro guy
4. normal
5. peanut

0. Charlotte Katakuri

 

[Dakhil]

Now that I said this they'll go with Infineon/Cypress (they use them for their accessories like the NSO controllers and the pokeball plus).

IFixIt's Nintendo Switch Lite uses Infineon's Cypress CYW4356X chip for Wi-Fi 5/Bluetooth 5.0.

 

[Darknut85]

It'll be an announcement of an announcement, because it'll say "Nintendo Switch 2 is coming! Tune in 1 week from now for a Nintendo Switch 2 Direct with more information!"

They‘ll never announce a direct one week beforehand. Maybe they‘ll vague hint: „Tune in for more information on games and hardware in the future“ but that‘ll be everything.

 

[Kintah]

IFixIt's Nintendo Switch Lite uses Infineon's Cypress CYW4356X chip for Wi-Fi 5/Bluetooth 5.0.

It's one of those two, they made them with the same specifications (they even reference it in the datasheet). As I said they use the same software.
"Cypress is converting the acquired IoT part numbers from Broadcom to the Cypress part numbering scheme. Due to this conversion,
there is no change in form, fit, or function as a result of offering the device with Cypress part number marking. The table provides
Cypress ordering part number that matches an existing IoT part number."

I think they just manufacture them.

 

[lexony]

Keep in mind analysts said that Switch was going to be a failure.

That‘s not really true. If I remember it correctly, Nintendo predictions were all around mixed to positive. The super pessimistic or outright failure reaction came from some Media and partially the Gaming Community itself after that January Presentation, though the forecast for Nintendo was mostly positive. Surly there were also some failure predictions by analysts, but it really wasn‘t an overall sentiment. After WiiU it was kinda hard to predict Sales Numbers and remember, before Switch launched everyone at the time would have seen a prediction of it selling as much as it actually did as very questionable.

 

[Kintah]

It's one of those two, they made them with the same specifications (they even reference it in the datasheet). As I said they use the same software.
"Cypress is converting the acquired IoT part numbers from Broadcom to the Cypress part numbering scheme. Due to this conversion,
there is no change in form, fit, or function as a result of offering the device with Cypress part number marking. The table provides
Cypress ordering part number that matches an existing IoT part number."

I think they just manufacture them.

Apparently they are all the same company:

"In April 2016, Cypress Semiconductors announced the acquisition of Broadcom’s Wireless Internet of Things Business. The deal was closed in July 2016.

In June 2019, Infineon Technologies announced it would acquire Cypress for $9.4 billion. The deal closed in April 2020, making Infineon one of the world's top 10 semiconductor manufacturers."

From Wikipedia's page on Cypress.

 

[Darknut85]

It seems like one of the analysts is on Team#Innovation:

Goldman’s Munakata does not expect the Switch follow-up to increase Nintendo’s total addressable market, but says that could change if the console “turns out to be new concept hardware rather than a successor along the same lines as the Nintendo Switch.”

 

[Meelow]

It seems like one of the analysts is on Team#Innovation:

I mean, Wii U innovated from Wii, and we know where that went.

PS2 was just a more powerful PS1, and we know where that went.

Innovation doesn't always mean sales.

 

[Individualised]

I've gave this some thought for a while and even if Nintendo were to innovate for their next system in the way they did with the Switch 1, I can't see where they could go next that would corner new markets in the same that Switch 1 did. The only logical next step I can think of is VR and given VR's current popularity status it would be incredibly hard for Nintendo to make VR mainstream. And smaller gimmicks are out of the question for me.

 

[Kintah]

I mean, Wii U innovated from Wii, and we know where that went.

PS2 was just a more powerful PS1, and we know where that went.

Innovation doesn't always mean sales.

Ps2 also had the whole "it's one of the cheaper DVD players" thing going for it.

I'd say the same for the PS3 with blu-rays but we all remember the whole drama about it's price point (still most expensive console I bought, still only Br player I own. Last Sony console I bought, was at least useful as a media player)

 

[gsr]

New article from Bloomberg about investors and analysts believing stock is overvalued for Nintendo and Switch 2 won't be able to keep up with Switch success no matter what. Also Mochi mentions on Twitter that he has no clue about Switch 2 as of now.

Interested to hear @Shareholder Chad 's opinion on this. (I tend to agree with it personally.)

Nintendo’s Record Gain Tested in Wait for ‘Switch 2’: Tech Watch

Nintendo Co.’s recent climb to a record high is looking increasingly stretched as investors wait for news on the successor to its aging Switch game console.

www.bloomberg.com

Agree and disagree with some of the article's points.

1. Yes, currently stock is overvalued IMO. The rally since November seems to be a "buy on rumor sell on news" play on successor announcement (along with the Arabian SWF buying up shares in January as well) rather than anything else. I am still expecting a drop when Nintendo reports their fiscals next week based on weak fiscal Q3 (in line with the last fiscal Q3 that was also weaker than past years). Successor announcement/mention may blunt it, but I don't know whether it's going to happen. To anyone who is considering to buy, wait and see what happens next week.

2. It's going to be difficult for the successor to do as well as the Nintendo Switch, that is a given. However, so long as Nintendo has compelling software that attracts consumers to the system, they have nothing to worry about as they will have a healthy revenue stream. Nintendo will be a good dividend play if you don't trade on the stock price. With just one system and consolidation of R&D resources, they have reduced the risks of a 3DS/Wii U era significantly. In the past, when Nintendo had handheld and home console divisions, the handheld division essentially propped up the home console division when the consoles weren't doing well (Wii U, GameCube, etc). The handhelds always saved the day, even when they weren't moving crazy numbers (3DS, GBA). The TV-handheld hybrid model, a spiritual successor to the handheld line, significantly reduces this risk.

 

[Darknut85]

I mean, Wii U innovated from Wii, and we know where that went.

PS2 was just a more powerful PS1, and we know where that went.

Innovation doesn't always mean sales.

Iterativeness also doesn‘t always mean sales. The Wii U didn‘t flop because of innovation, and the PS3 didn‘t fail because it was iterative. The thing is that both can lead to good sales numbers, but only with the right execution.

 

[crazybenjamin]

They‘ll never announce a direct one week beforehand. Maybe they‘ll vague hint: „Tune in for more information on games and hardware in the future“ but that‘ll be everything.

Eh, 1 week was more of an example than anything else, I could see it being 3 days instead. My point was more that there's a way to make it an "announcement of an announcement" without us having to wait for such a long time for detailed information.

 

[Darknut85]

Eh, 1 week was more of an example than anything else, I could see it being 3 days instead. My point was more that there's a way to make it an "announcement of an announcement" without us having to wait for such a long time for detailed information.

Agree, I was kinda joking about Nintendo’s habit of announcing directs only 1 or 2 days beforehand in comparison to Sony and Xbox announcing their events 1 or 2 weeks prior.

 

[Bonejack]

Keep in mind analysts said that Switch was going to be a failure.

I'll be totally honest here, i thought that it wouldn't work out any good too. I thought that the tech back then wasn't ready for such a hybrid design.

Not directly a failure, but definitely not a hit on the scale it is right now.

Turns out, what do i even know, huh? ^^

I mean, Wii U innovated from Wii, and we know where that went.

PS2 was just a more powerful PS1, and we know where that went.

Innovation doesn't always mean sales.

They need to find the right balance. And personally i think this time the best balance would be "go easy on gimmicks, and focus on deliver a good successor".

 

[Darknut85]

I'll be totally honest here, i thought that it wouldn't work out any good too. I thought that the tech back then wasn't ready for such a hybrid design.

Not directly a failure, but definitely not a hit on the scale it is right now.

Turns out, what do i even know, huh? ^^



They need to find the right balance. And personally i think this time the best balance would be "go easy on gimmicks, and focus on deliver a good successor".

Agree.

 

[Apenknul]

Since January is out of the dates to be revealed.. I can actually see them announcing it in the next direct?

Like they open the Direct with "Guess what people, Metroid Prime 4!" and end the whole thing with "we have one important thing to show.. the new generation of the Nintendo Switch family: The Nintendo Switch 2."

 

[TheMindOfThomas]

The Switch 2 probably isn’t going to be as successful as Switch 1. It probably won’t be a Wii U level disaster by any means though. Other Nintendo “successor” consoles have sold worse than their predecessor but still been very successful in the grand scheme of things (SNES, GBA, 3DS).

 

[ERezaSwitch]

 

[MusicProposition]

Since January is out of the dates to be revealed.. I can actually see them announcing it in the next direct?

Like they open the Direct with "Guess what people, Metroid Prime 4!" and end the whole thing with "we have one important thing to show.. the new generation of the Nintendo Switch family: The Nintendo Switch 2."

could theoretically happen, but I'm pretty sure they'll want it to be a separate thing. You just have more impact with a trailer drop, be it at a random day in feb/march/april or pre-announced.

 

[pelusilla6]

 

[Individualised]

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