StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Ghostsonplanets]

Metroid Prime as part of a launch line-up is fine. But as the standout launch title? Not at all. Unless Prime 4 significantly changes Prime formula and goes towards something more popular, marketable, modern and accessible (Like Open-World), Metroid isn't the software you want to launch a console with. It's far too niche for that.

Like, I think everyone would agree with me that Nintendo shouldn't launch Switch 2 with Fire Emblem or Xenoblade or Yoshi or Pikmin. They're all good games and are additive to a console library, but aren't the titles to push a console. They might be used to push certain fans of certain genres towards the console, like Xeno 2 was used for to bring JRPG fans (And thus guarantee Switch as a good platform for JRPGs). But they aren't going to move consoles and give the new console the critical early momentum. Metroid is in similar ballpark as these series, with the only difference being that it carry some level of prestige.

I think Nintendo either needs to release the console with a standout 3D Mario, which is a massive, very prestigious, easily marketable and coming off a very sucessful movie, hardware seller game that can give the platform the critical early momentum. Or, if Nintendo doesn't has that 3D Mario option available and ready, they could push the new platform with standout Third-Party games that would make a huge splash towards the early hardcore evangelists consumers. Titles like Elden Ring, CyberP, Resident Evil, Baldur's Gate, etc as part of the launch line-up. And it's in this situation, where it's part of broader launch line-up, that a bog standard Metroid Prime 4 could fit.

 

[darthdiablo]

Wii Sports is a game that became a cultural phenomenon that managed to attract people to the system in droves. People who had never even touched a video game system before. It became a heavy hitter on the level of Mario/Zelda, which only supports the fact that you need to launch a system with a game that will capture the public zeitgeist, not detracts from it.

Mario has proven to have done that. Zelda has proven to have done that. Wii Sports did that.
Metroid on the other hand, has not even reached near the levels on systems, even with dedicated install bases.
If Nintendo cant convince people to buy Metroid on systems they already own, how do you expect them to drop $350-400 on a system for it?

Wii Sports is a perfect example of why Nintendo doesn't necessarily have to launch consoles with a new Mario and/or Zelda title.

Any "new" games in the IP franchise (Pikmin, Bayonetta, etc) has a potential to surpass the previous records. BOTW's total sales numbers exceeded the sum of MOST of prevoius LoZ titles.

Metroid Dread became the best selling Metroid game ever. There's no reason to believe MP4 might exceed Metroid Dread's numbers (after all, it's still supposedly a Switch 1 game too).

All I'm saying is the logic that Nintendo has to launch consoles with either a new Mario or Zelda title is faulty/flawed.

 

[Concernt]

In this day and age a Mario sized heavy hitter at launch just seems like a bad idea. We live in a world where Xbox's best launch had no exclusives day one, and didn't even have new first party titles, and where PlayStation launched with a non-exclusive expansion and a remake and still sold out like mad.

The gaming maket is big, especially Nintendo's, but supply lines are limited by physics and economics. Demand for a new console at launch, especially a new Switch, is going to be extremely high regardless of software, as we saw with OLED Model not even bringing performance improvements.

Launching with a major cross gen hardcore game, then releasing a heavy hitter later in the year, alongside healthy third party support (like the majority of current gen third party games in 2024, I expect to hit NG Switch), that's just a far healthier situation to be in.

I'll say it again. You don't want a scenario where come April, or July, or September, little Timmy is crying because he can't play the new Mario game because sweaty scalpers and jolly hardcore fans like ourselves have bought the entire stock.

They don't need a blockbuster to sell out day one... Like... At all. In fact it could be detrimental to said blockbuster to release on a platform with very limited supply, versus a few months later when supply chains have more slack, there's more in the wild, and it's had time to get a good footing.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

If the main launch title of Switch 2 is Prime 4 (cross-gen or not), they might as well not launch the console at all in Japan.

A cross-gen Prime 4 makes perfect sense as a launch window game some months after (or before) Switch 2, targeting the Western hardcore audience.

This is also a important point. Metroid is already a somewhat niche series (By Nintendo standards, of course), but in Japan it's basically a non-existence. Specially the First-Person variant of Metroid series. Given Japan is Nintendo second biggest market, I'm sure they're keen to release the hardware with a series that is popular worldwide and can push hardware sales.

 

[darthdiablo]

What... NSMBU is a sequel to NSMBW, they're all different games with different levels. They're not "deluxe" versions of one another. They're completely different games that share a style.

Huh, interesting. I guess that was a bad marketing move then. I skipped over NSMBU because I literally thought it was just NSMBW, but with additional content.

 

[SirArthur]

Nintendo hardware is in Nintendo's words, "integrated" with its software. The focus here when talking about software is usually how that integrates with the hardware. Tears of the Kingdom and scrolling shoulder buttons, Metroid Prime 4 and the software and design required to enable smooth cross-gen. Pure chatter about software isn't really what this place is for, but as long as that software is relevant to the hardware, it's usually fine. (I.E., people saying "3D Mario on NG Switch is a lock." isn't very relevant, while saying "I wonder how RT will be used in the next 3D Mario" would be relevant.)

Due to how deeply integrated hardware and software are, both from a business and technology perspective, it's difficult, and I'd say impossible, to extracate one from the other.

I'm not the arbiter on these things of course, these are just what I've seen over the last year or what have you of being here.

For an immediate example, I was just talking about how Prime 4 will be impacted by their cross-gen initiative, which is very much relevant to the technology, especially system software. Thanks to datamines, we can see that there's some degree of cross-gen capabilities in the OS, with new memory management, a new patch type, and the ability to address different sizes of memory all being added in updates, despite none of these seeming to be relevant to the Gen1 Switch.

It seems my post was misinterpreted. Obviously software and hardware integration is coupled topic, especially from the examples given. What I was referring to is the talk about the more marketing/public perception of lets say, "what if Nintendo launch the next console with Call of Duty" or what is ideal for a successful launch etc. That is what the other thread was made for, its on the first page.

 

[RedSpring]

I get what you’re saying, though it doesn’t have to be 8, or 20 slots. Could be ten slots for the most used weapons, and in the menu they can be swapped out on the fly.

In the case of GTAV, it also has 8 weapon slots, but has 18 radio stations using the same type of wheel.

This is more a matter of opinion, but wheels would be more intuitive than a single file line like what we got in BOTW/TOTK. You could still organize them as before, have the relevant information inside the wheel such as damage, plus would be nice to add a durability gauge. Why Nintendo never bothered to include that is beyond me.

That all said, there would be limitations with more than 18-30 items as another user jokingly posted when he quoted me. That I can see not working well for a wheel, and what we got is probably the overall best option.

But for a limited amount of weapons, bows, and shields, wheel would’ve been better.

I don't disagree with with the wheel being more intuitive or faster at all. Just that Nintendo didn't went with the scroll instead for the sake of being different. There's a good reason to not do the wheel once you're at 20 items and up and honestly, I could do with even more weapon slots.

 

[Gingerbread Man]

In this day and age a Mario sized heavy hitter at launch just seems like a bad idea. We live in a world where Xbox's best launch had no exclusives day one, and didn't even have new first party titles, and where PlayStation launched with a non-exclusive expansion and a remake and still sold out like mad.

The gaming maket is big, especially Nintendo's, but supply lines are limited by physics and economics. Demand for a new console at launch, especially a new Switch, is going to be extremely high regardless of software, as we saw with OLED Model not even bringing performance improvements.

Launching with a major cross gen hardcore game, then releasing a heavy hitter later in the year, alongside healthy third party support (like the majority of current gen third party games in 2024, I expect to hit NG Switch), that's just a far healthier situation to be in.

I'll say it again. You don't want a scenario where come April, or July, or September, little Timmy is crying because he can't play the new Mario game because sweaty scalpers and jolly hardcore fans like ourselves have bought the entire stock.

They don't need a blockbuster to sell out day one... Like... At all. In fact it could be detrimental to said blockbuster to release on a platform with very limited supply, versus a few months later when supply chains have more slack, there's more in the wild, and it's had time to get a good footing.

PlayStation and Xbox have chased power for decades and trained their audience to be interested in the new top-of-the-class graphic powerhouse. Nintendo, on the other hand, took the opposite approach, and to this day, they have not even officially released Switch specs.

I don't think many Switch players (outside the message board bubble) would be interested in a Switch 2 without exclusive games.

That said, I agree that Switch 2 doesn't need a Mario or a Zelda (even though I do think 3D Mario will be the launch title -- it just fits EPD Tokyo pipeline). If they have a genuinely innovative and appealing title, like Wii Sports, the console could be fine. I even think that BotW would also be a great success and an appealing title, even without the "Zelda" brand.

However, this title cannot be Prime 4, unless the game is really, really different from what we expected -- the series is appreciated but niche in the West (the definition of a cult series), and literally non-existent in Nintendo's domestic market. Prime 4 will still play a great role in Switch 2 launch year -- @Ghostsonplanets' Xenoblade 2 analogy is very on point.

 

[Discostew]

Would Nintendo skimp on the A78C L3 cache even if it meant that having 8MB would alleviate some of the low bandwidth on the RAM?

As others have said, there's factors in terms of space required for it, energy usage, and whatnot. But, given how Nintendo doesn't generally skimp on RAM capacity, it's kind of up in the air if the same could be said about cache.

 

[Discostew]

So a Switch Lite owner recently sent their device in for repairs because of dead pixels. Nintendo notified them that he would need a replacement. Unfortunately, they "ran out of Lites" as the person stated Nintendo telling them, so they were offered an OLED replacement if he was willing to pay the difference.

I know this is second-hand information, but still. Ran out of Lites for replacements? There were ramblings of a possible Switch Mini, though I'm not convinced it exists. Could they simply be discontinuing the Lites in favor of v2 and OLED, since they all share the same chips?

 

[Concernt]

So a Switch Lite owner recently sent their device in for repairs because of dead pixels. Nintendo notified them that he would need a replacement. Unfortunately, they "ran out of Lites" as the person stated Nintendo telling them, so they were offered an OLED replacement if he was willing to pay the difference.

I know this is second-hand information, but still. Ran out of Lites for replacements? There were ramblings of a possible Switch Mini, though I'm not convinced it exists. Could they simply be discontinuing the Lites in favor of v2 and OLED, since they all share the same chips?

Is this a friend of yours, or is there a source like a Reddit post or something? I'm curious because that does sound exceptional.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

So a Switch Lite owner recently sent their device in for repairs because of dead pixels. Nintendo notified them that he would need a replacement. Unfortunately, they "ran out of Lites" as the person stated Nintendo telling them, so they were offered an OLED replacement if he was willing to pay the difference.

I know this is second-hand information, but still. Ran out of Lites for replacements? There were ramblings of a possible Switch Mini, though I'm not convinced it exists. Could they simply be discontinuing the Lites in favor of v2 and OLED, since they all share the same chips?

We're on Holiday Season, peak supply chain and logistics constrained period. They running out of Lite replacements or Lite parts isn't something unusual.

I would be more worried about the deal pixel LCD story. It isn't the first story in recent times that I hear about Lite having a dead pixel flaw. A saw a lot of people complaining that they had to replace their Lite LCD due to dead pixels recently... Which isn't something that should be usual, at all. Specially for a LCD and a Nintendo device

 

[Giancarlo]

They might be, I don't know, but you can't deny that when the 2024 lineup so far is

• Remake (Another Code: Recollection)
• Remake (Mario vs. Donkey Kong)
• Super casual game (Princess Peach: Showtime!)
• Remaster (Luigi's Mansion 2 HD)
• Remake (Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door)

It just screams that they have no heavy hitters left and are saving them all for the next console.

where Metroid Prime 4 fit in this schedule? Switch exclusive or cross-gen?

 

[redmutineer75]

where Metroid Prime 4 fit in this schedule? Switch exclusive or cross-gen?

No one except Retro knows at this point.

 

[Giancarlo]

Metroid Prime as part of a launch line-up is fine. But as the standout launch title? Not at all. Unless Prime 4 significantly changes Prime formula and goes towards something more popular, marketable, modern and accessible (Like Open-World), Metroid isn't the software you want to launch a console with. It's far too niche for that.

Like, I think everyone would agree with me that Nintendo shouldn't launch Switch 2 with Fire Emblem or Xenoblade or Yoshi or Pikmin. They're all good games and are additive to a console library, but aren't the titles to push a console. They might be used to push certain fans of certain genres towards the console, like Xeno 2 was used for to bring JRPG fans (And thus guarantee Switch as a good platform for JRPGs). But they aren't going to move consoles and give the new console the critical early momentum. Metroid is in similar ballpark as these series, with the only difference being that it carry some level of prestige.

I think Nintendo either needs to release the console with a standout 3D Mario, which is a massive, very prestigious, easily marketable and coming off a very sucessful movie, hardware seller game that can give the platform the critical early momentum. Or, if Nintendo doesn't has that 3D Mario option available and ready, they could push the new platform with standout Third-Party games that would make a huge splash towards the early hardcore evangelists consumers. Titles like Elden Ring, CyberP, Resident Evil, Baldur's Gate, etc as part of the launch line-up. And it's in this situation, where it's part of broader launch line-up, that a bog standard Metroid Prime 4 could fit.

ideally for Switch sucessor launch, it should have severals games that cuminate on a bigger release, 3D Mario at launch, and then Metroid Prime 4, and then Monolith Soft new IP, a tactic similar to what Nintendo did for Switch launch, not rely on a single heavy hitter, such as 3D Mario, but severals heavy hitter

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

ideally for Switch sucessor launch, it should have severals games that cuminate on a bigger release, 3D Mario at launch, and then Metroid Prime 4, and then Monolith Soft new IP, a tactic similar to what Nintendo did for Switch launch, not rely on a single heavy hitter, such as 3D Mario, but severals heavy hitter

I agree. But just an addendum: What you're referring at is the launch window or launch year period. By Launch, I was referring to the launch of the console + first month. At the launch, it's critical to have a software that pushes hardware sales and can create early critical momentum or a line-up of 1P and 3P software that can please a lot of different customers.

 

[TLZ]

I'm not directly replying to your post, but here's a pretty good article on how L3 cache impacts gaming (not the same as the previous article I posted).

Does L3 Cache Matter for Gaming? An In-Depth Look - 33rd Square

Hey there! If you‘re building or upgrading your gaming PC, you may be wondering - does L3 cache really matter that much for gaming performance? As a

www.33rdsquare.com

Cache is essentially a small pool of memory right on the CPU die itself, which stores frequently accessed data for rapid access by the processor cores.
When you‘re gaming, the CPU needs to provide a steady stream of data to the GPU to keep those frame rates high. This is where L3 cache comes into play.
The GPU is crunching graphics and physics calculations at insane speeds. It needs to be continuously fed with the latest game data like textures, 3D models, terrain geometry, and more.

L3 cache acts as a data reservoir close to the CPU cores, so this info can be accessed in nanoseconds rather than the 100+ nanosecond trip out to RAM. Those precious fractions of seconds make all the difference for maintaining high FPS.

There are different cache levels:

• L1 cache – Extremely fast but smallest in capacity, embedded per core
• L2 cache – Faster than L3 and shared between cores
• L3 cache – Largest and slowest cache, shared by all cores

L3 sits between L2 and main RAM and acts like a warehouse for data the CPU will likely need again, avoiding slow trips out to system memory. I like to think of it as a short-term data buffer. The larger the L3 cache, the more data can be stored close to the cores for lightning fast access times.

• Prevents bottlenecks – On-die cache feeding the GPU prevents the external memory bus from getting maxed out and causing latency
• Smooths frame rates – By reducing delays in data access, L3 cache helps avoid stuttering and FPS drops during intense gaming sequences
• Copes with complex scenes – Larger caches help keep framerates high in open world games rendering detailed scenery and geometry
• Great for multiplayer – Fast response times from cached data give you split-second advantages in competitive online games

In short – sufficient L3 cache directly translates to higher, more stable framerates in the games you play.

Quantifying the Gaming Performance Impact​

Just how much of a performance boost does extra L3 cache provide? Let‘s look at some revealing examples. Here are gaming benchmarks in Assassin‘s Creed Valhalla for otherwise comparable AMD Ryzen CPUs with differing L3 cache sizes:

CPU	Cores/Threads	L3 Cache	Avg FPS (1080p)
Ryzen 9 5950X	16/32	64MB	106 fps
Ryzen 9 5900X	12/24	64MB	105 fps
Ryzen 7 5800X3D	8/16	96MB	113 fps
Ryzen 7 5800X	8/16	32MB	103 fps

Despite having fewer cores, the Ryzen 7 5800X3D‘s massive 96MB L3 cache pushes it past even the flagship 5950X. That huge cache reduced latency, allowing the 5800X3D to feed data faster to the GPU for extra frames.

Here‘s another example pitting Intel 12th Gen against AMD Ryzen CPUs in Grand Theft Auto V:

CPU	L3 Cache	Avg FPS (1080p Ultra)
Core i9-12900KS	30MB	189 fps
Ryzen 9 5950X	64MB	193 fps
Core i5-12600K	20MB	177 fps

The 5950X‘s sizable 64MB L3 cache advantage allowed it to edge out Intel‘s top mainstream gaming chip. Despite having fewer performance cores overall, its L3 size kept the FPS lead.As you can see, L3 cache can make a tangible impact on your game‘s speed and responsiveness.

Why Bigger Caches Improve Gaming​

You‘re probably getting the picture now that when it comes to L3 cache, bigger is generally better for gaming. There are a few reasons why larger cache sizes pay dividends:

• More data cached – Bigger L3 size means more textures, maps and game physics can be stored locally rather than in slower RAM
• Feeds data faster – Larger cache reduces latency, allowing quicker delivery of data to GPU
• Handles complex scenes – Open world games with large environments especially benefit from capacious L3
• Multicore scaling – With more CPU cores, you need proportionally more L3 cache to feed them all

However, L3 cache does reach a point of diminishing returns. Going above 96-128MB provides little extra boost in most games. The sweet spot for price/performance currently lies in the 16-64MB range when building a gaming rig.

Does L3 Cache Matter for Gaming? An In-Depth Look - 33rd Square

Hey there! If you‘re building or upgrading your gaming PC, you may be wondering - does L3 cache really matter that much for gaming performance? As a

www.33rdsquare.com

We also have to ask ourselves how does L1 and L2 help with games too, and in comparison to current gen consoles. And how much will we have of each.

A78c could give us 32 or 64KB of L1 cache, and 256 or 512KB of L2 cache, and as low as 512kb to 8mb cache of L3 (we don't know the denominations)
https://developer.arm.com/Processors/Cortex-A78C
I know that cache was discussed here before several times, but perhaps it was just based more so on L1 and L2 cache, and not as much on L3..

it's pretty exciting to think of the possibilities of much it could help with Switch 2's RAM bottleneck by helping to increase framerate and stability at least. Truth be told I'm not sure if those AMD and Intel CPU benchmarks are the best example, but it can help no doubt.

it would be interesting to talk about ESRAM and DRAM as well, as they could both help with RAM bottlenecks. ESRAM is more expensive and larger and it's in the Xbone, while the latter is on the Wii U and behaves like L3 cache. ESRAM helped boost xbone's bandwidth quite a bit...

Not expecting them to be on switch 2.

That's a nice and easy explanation. Thanks for this. I always wondered what those Ls are but never bothered looking up.

How expensive are they? Is it costly to have 64-96mb L3? Or simply higher sizes of all Ls?

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

How expensive are they? Is it costly to have 64-96mb L3? Or simply higher sizes of all Ls?

Very expensive. Specially on modern nodes. But they're fundamental for modern high performance cores. So designers need to balance out between cost and performance. For consoles, which are a cost-effective application, you can skimp a bit on it because developers have finer grained ways to control the way their projects interact or hit it. But, of course, the less you have it, the more your performance suffer.

And games are specially latency sensitive, so having a lot of high-performance on-die cache is a great way to improve performance. But again, it's something infeasible for a console.

 

[YolkFolk]

In this day and age a Mario sized heavy hitter at launch just seems like a bad idea. We live in a world where Xbox's best launch had no exclusives day one, and didn't even have new first party titles, and where PlayStation launched with a non-exclusive expansion and a remake and still sold out like mad.

The gaming maket is big, especially Nintendo's, but supply lines are limited by physics and economics. Demand for a new console at launch, especially a new Switch, is going to be extremely high regardless of software, as we saw with OLED Model not even bringing performance improvements.

Launching with a major cross gen hardcore game, then releasing a heavy hitter later in the year, alongside healthy third party support (like the majority of current gen third party games in 2024, I expect to hit NG Switch), that's just a far healthier situation to be in.

I'll say it again. You don't want a scenario where come April, or July, or September, little Timmy is crying because he can't play the new Mario game because sweaty scalpers and jolly hardcore fans like ourselves have bought the entire stock.

They don't need a blockbuster to sell out day one... Like... At all. In fact it could be detrimental to said blockbuster to release on a platform with very limited supply, versus a few months later when supply chains have more slack, there's more in the wild, and it's had time to get a good footing.

Nintendo consoles without a heavy hitter at launch:

Gamecube, Wii U

Nintendo consoles with a heavy hitter at launch:

NES, SNES, N64, Wii, Switch

Nintendo are notorious for struggling to have back to back successes and they need Switch 2 to start with a bang. A big release that shows why Switch 2 is a step above what came before. They’ll know this and therefore it’s 99.9% likely we’ll have that big Nintendo title on day 1. There are zero negatives to this happening.

 

[Meelow]

Gamecube, Wii, WII U launched without a new Mario or Zelda title. You're acting like only Mario and Zelda can be the "heavy hitters" and nothing else can be.

Metroid Prime 4 would be absolutely a fantastic launch title for Swtich particularly if there's a focus on utilizing Switch 2's upgraded hardware for the Switch 2 version of the game whenever it be stand-alone Switch 2 title, or day 1 patch on top of Switch 1 game.

Launch lineup doesn't have to be centered around a single game. As for "launch window" games (games that comes in after launch), we simply don't know what Nintendo has planned. Who's to say a new 3D Mario game isn't planned for "launch window" (within 1st year) of Switch 2 launch?

?

Wii launched with Twilight Princess and Wii U launched with NSMBU.

 

[Joy-Boy]

Nintendo consoles without a heavy hitter at launch:

Gamecube, Wii U

Nintendo consoles with a heavy hitter at launch:

NES, SNES, N64, Wii, Switch

Nintendo are notorious for struggling to have back to back successes and they need Switch 2 to start with a bang. A big release that shows why Switch 2 is a step above what came before. They’ll know this and therefore it’s 99.9% likely we’ll have that big Nintendo title on day 1. There are zero negatives to this happening.

In addition to this, it's very clear they learned from their mistakes with the Wii U, nearly every reason people pointed to for it failing (Marketing, branding, lack of strong launch titles, etc etc) were all answered with the Switch 1.

I feel like too many people think that they're somehow going to magically forget all those lessons they learned and like go with a massive risk instead a guarenteed sucess for the heck of it, when they have pleanty of examples of what and what not to do

 

[Meelow]

In addition to this, it's very clear they learned from their mistakes with the Wii U, nearly every reason people pointed to for it failing (Marketing, branding, lack of strong launch titles, etc etc) were all answered with the Switch 1.

I feel like too many people think that they're somehow going to magically forget all those lessons they learned and like go with a massive risk instead a guarenteed sucess for the heck of it, when they have pleanty of examples of what and what not to do

This.

And that fact that ex Nintendo employees (Kit and Krysta) have said how much the Wii U (and to the lesser extent 3DS) have traumatized Nintendo into making sure they check off all the boxes for launch.

 

[Machrider]

Metroid Prime as part of a launch line-up is fine. But as the standout launch title? Not at all. Unless Prime 4 significantly changes Prime formula and goes towards something more popular, marketable, modern and accessible (Like Open-World), Metroid isn't the software you want to launch a console with. It's far too niche for that.

Like, I think everyone would agree with me that Nintendo shouldn't launch Switch 2 with Fire Emblem or Xenoblade or Yoshi or Pikmin. They're all good games and are additive to a console library, but aren't the titles to push a console. They might be used to push certain fans of certain genres towards the console, like Xeno 2 was used for to bring JRPG fans (And thus guarantee Switch as a good platform for JRPGs). But they aren't going to move consoles and give the new console the critical early momentum. Metroid is in similar ballpark as these series, with the only difference being that it carry some level of prestige.

I think Nintendo either needs to release the console with a standout 3D Mario, which is a massive, very prestigious, easily marketable and coming off a very sucessful movie, hardware seller game that can give the platform the critical early momentum. Or, if Nintendo doesn't has that 3D Mario option available and ready, they could push the new platform with standout Third-Party games that would make a huge splash towards the early hardcore evangelists consumers. Titles like Elden Ring, CyberP, Resident Evil, Baldur's Gate, etc as part of the launch line-up. And it's in this situation, where it's part of broader launch line-up, that a bog standard Metroid Prime 4 could fit.

On no planet would Nintendo's Japanese leadership greenlight a launch in this day and age with Metroid Prime as the lead launch title.

Even 3D Mario is probably not enough for them, I can see them going for Mario Kart in the launch window along with a 3D Mario.

As mentioned above the 3DS and Wii U launch debacles have if nothing traumatized Nintendo to the point where they won't be having a soft launch any time soon IMO. Those wounds cut deep, and there are still a lot of people on Nintendo's board of directors that remember very well what happened.

 

[TomNookYankees]

Nintendo consoles without a heavy hitter at launch:

Gamecube, Wii U

Nintendo consoles with a heavy hitter at launch:

NES, SNES, N64, Wii, Switch

Nintendo are notorious for struggling to have back to back successes and they need Switch 2 to start with a bang. A big release that shows why Switch 2 is a step above what came before. They’ll know this and therefore it’s 99.9% likely we’ll have that big Nintendo title on day 1. There are zero negatives to this happening.

Comparisons get more complicated when you include handhelds, especially since both the DS and 3DS lacked heavy hitter launch titles but DS managed to sell well anyway due to relatively cheap cost and because GBA was still getting lots of top tier (for handheld) games the backwards compatibility more directly benefited the DS.

 

[YolkFolk]

Comparisons get more complicated when you include handhelds, especially since both the DS and 3DS lacked heavy hitter launch titles but DS managed to sell well anyway due to relatively cheap cost and because GBA was still getting lots of top tier (for handheld) games the backwards compatibility more directly benefited the DS.

Neither DS or 3DS did spectacular out of the gate. The 3DS serves as the best example of why you can’t rest on your laurels. It lacked key software at launch and had an overly self assured price point. It was the follow up to Nintendo’s greatest success and yet they struggled. It is possible to mess these things up.

Like someone else just said, with the Switch, Nintendo basically corrected every mistake they made with the Wii U. Let’s hope they haven’t forgotten the lessons they learned.

 

[Machrider]

There's just no point if you're Nintendo to having a mediocre or even luke warm launch.

They've learned this lesson the hard way multiple times, why do it again?

A great launch window just makes the rest of the generation so much easier, it's akin to walking the same distance but walking downhill instead of uphill. It's make a massive difference.

The Switch had a strong launch window (that means Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey too, not just a day 1 lineup) ... they should try to repeat something as close to that as possible. The Switch really never had any problems its whole product cycle because the launch window momentum was so good that they basically were on cruise control the rest of the generation. They had a few hiccups (Labo not taking off), but that was about it.

I think for that reason not only is a 3D Mario not enough, Mario Kart should be in the mix early in the product cycle. If you can only launch it with 12-16 new tracks + some retro remixes, fine do that. You can always add more tracks (dozens of them) as time goes on.

 

[Triistan]

NSMBU was the sequel to a game that sold 30 million copies, making it a 'heavy hitter.' The heavy hitter for the Wii wasn't TP, it was Wii Sports. PS5 launched with a remake and a DLC, while Xbox Series X launched with... nothing? Both were sold out for months.

I believe that Mario 3D is almost guaranteed for the Switch 2 launch, however, relying solely on what happened more than 7 years ago isn't always a successful strategy. Markets change, Nintendo has evolved significantly in the past 10 years, and probably they've never been stronger. They will likely create a strong launch window lineup and should fare well.

 

[topsekret]

Wasn't there a rumor of some sort about Fortnite ending on the current Nintendo Switch?

Yeah I remember that. I think it was from around last January or December and supposedly came from an Epic employee? IIRC, it said after Ch. 4, they were shutting down the Switch version cause it was proving too difficult to support with new features. I don't remember if this was part of the original rumor or not, but people naturally assumed this meant the Switch 2 would be available by then and it would have Fortnite at or near launch to maintain availability of the game for Nintendo fans.

Clearly this ended up being false. But it seemed plausible at the time (when a lot of people were team H2 2023). And we saw other devs shutdown the Switch versions of live-service games a few months after that Fortnite rumor went around (off the top of my head, Hi-Rez with Rogue Company and Paladins).

But I wouldn't be surprised if Epic shuts down the Switch version shortly after the Switch 2 launches (whenever that is).

 

[YolkFolk]

NSMBU was the sequel to a game that sold 30 million copies, making it a 'heavy hitter.' The heavy hitter for the Wii wasn't TP, it was Wii Sports. PS5 launched with a remake and a DLC, while Xbox Series X launched with... nothing? Both were sold out for months.

I believe that Mario 3D is almost guaranteed for the Switch 2 launch, however, relying solely on what happened more than 7 years ago isn't always a successful strategy. Markets change, Nintendo has evolved significantly in the past 10 years, and probably they've never been stronger. They will likely create a strong launch window lineup and should fare well.

New Super Mario Bros U wasn’t a heavy hitter for a console launch title.

The series was becoming stale and the previous entry had been released just weeks before to the most jaded reaction ever for a 2D Mario game. Not only that, but to most people, it looked near identical to New Super Mario Bros Wii. The new controller features were no where near enough to convince people they had to go out and buy the new console for this game…..if they even realised it was on a new console.

I think it’s also unfair to say Twilight Princess wasn’t a heavy hitter for Wii. It was the best selling and fastest selling Zelda game of all time and for the hardcore crowd, it was one of the most anticipated games of all time. The new controls actually added to the hype for a lot of people, even if many disliked them over time. Of course, Wii Sports was a heavy hitter for the casual market as well.

 

[BreakAtmo]

Yes. L3 does provide lesser bandwidth contention and saves energy. But it also takes more area. So it will depend on what Nintendo think. Perhaps less L3 cache will strain the memory subsystem more and use more energy, but the amount of money they save by making the chip smaller greatly offset these cons. It's a trade-off and only Nintendo can decide on it. Granted, while more cache would be nice, it's not like it would be the end of the world going with less. Consoles are cost-effective hardware, so cuts are always expected. It's up to developers to adapt to it.

How long before we get mobile ARM chips with 3D cache?

 

[The Competition]

I would personally disagree with the argument "if Nintendo launches Switch 2 with just Prime 4, they might as well not launch in Japan."

I get the logic but I disagree. In the west, Sony is able to release a system and sell it purely off multiplats, they don't need exclusives at all to sell their hardware because people buy it as a key that unlocks the next 6 - 8 years of mainstream games. The exclusives are a bonus and a differentiator against Xbox, but the driving factor for purchasing the conosle is the incoming years worth of multiplats.

In Japan, Nintendo would be able to do the same with Switch 2. They could release the system with a slew of multiplats that were previously only available on PlayStation, and it's possible that an enormous amount of Japanese gamers would buy the system just for them, because for reasons, Japanese gamers have a strong bias towards portable gaming. So there is likely a lot of pent up demand for games like Tekken 8, Street Fighter 6, Final Fantasy, Resident Evil from gamers who will not cave to buying a PlayStation for those games, even though they really want to play them!

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

How long before we get mobile ARM chips with 3D cache?

Hyperbolic answer: Never

Less hyperbolic one: Once we're able to employ new materials, better resolve heat dissipation, heat trapping and self heating, better solve stacked true 3D architectures and, finally, make them cost-effective enough to be used on a low-cost mobile chip. So some long years/ decades from now.

 

[Discostew]

Is this a friend of yours, or is there a source like a Reddit post or something? I'm curious because that does sound exceptional.

Not a friend, just someone on another message board looking for help. They waited because they didn't know how to deal with the Animal Crossing backup situation, and asked about that before they couold send in their system (so they can recover their backup in the case they had to get a full replacement). Got that figured out for them, and so they went and sent in their Lite to Nintendo for repairs, and this situation of them running out of Lites came about.

 

[Concernt]

Not a friend, just someone on another message board looking for help. They waited because they didn't know how to deal with the Animal Crossing backup situation, and asked about that before they couold send in their system (so they can recover their backup in the case they had to get a full replacement). Got that figured out for them, and so they went and sent in their Lite to Nintendo for repairs, and this situation of them running out of Lites came about.

Fascinating. I wonder if from shipping records we could ascertain if existing models of Switch are having production reduced.

 

[Giancarlo]

I agree. But just an addendum: What you're referring at is the launch window or launch year period. By Launch, I was referring to the launch of the console + first month. At the launch, it's critical to have a software that pushes hardware sales and can create early critical momentum or a line-up of 1P and 3P software that can please a lot of different customers.

launch window

 

[Hermii]

Fascinating. I wonder if from shipping records we could ascertain if existing models of Switch are having production reduced.

This is just based on a single instance of someone not getting a lite. I think there are more likely explanations for this.

 

[Lugia667]

NSMBU has sold like 18+ million on Switch, I don't think it's that game's fault for the Wii U's bad launch

 

[NateDrake]

how confident are you that the Next Switch is coming in 2024, the pessimist on twitter and furukawa lack of acknowledgement is starting to get to me lol

Unless something unexpected happens, it'll release in 2024.

 

[Meelow]

Unless something unexpected happens, it'll release in 2024.

Hey! Just wondering if you heard any updates to the March thing?

 

[Neoxon]

I would personally disagree with the argument "if Nintendo launches Switch 2 with just Prime 4, they might as well not launch in Japan."

I get the logic but I disagree. In the west, Sony is able to release a system and sell it purely off multiplats, they don't need exclusives at all to sell their hardware because people buy it as a key that unlocks the next 6 - 8 years of mainstream games. The exclusives are a bonus and a differentiator against Xbox, but the driving factor for purchasing the conosle is the incoming years worth of multiplats.

In Japan, Nintendo would be able to do the same with Switch 2. They could release the system with a slew of multiplats that were previously only available on PlayStation, and it's possible that an enormous amount of Japanese gamers would buy the system just for them, because for reasons, Japanese gamers have a strong bias towards portable gaming. So there is likely a lot of pent up demand for games like Tekken 8, Street Fighter 6, Final Fantasy, Resident Evil from gamers who will not cave to buying a PlayStation for those games, even though they really want to play them!

I’m moving this to the other thread to keep things on-topic here.

 

[NateDrake]

Hey! Just wondering if you heard any updates to the March thing?

Nope. I maintain the belief it's referring to the reveal/announcement window until I get an update.

 

[Hermii]

Reveal H1, release H2 stays winning.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Nope. I maintain the belief it's referring to the reveal/announcement window until I get an update.

Makes the most sense, it will be revealed before late April/early May either way so that's a good guess.

 

[BreakAtmo]

Hyperbolic answer: Never

Less hyperbolic one: Once we're able to employ new materials, better resolve heat dissipation, heat trapping and self heating, better solve stacked true 3D architectures and, finally, make them cost-effective enough to be used on a low-cost mobile chip. So some long years/ decades from now.

Shame. I thought them already being around even in the laptop space would mean the time was close.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Shame. I thought them already being around even in the laptop space would mean the time was close.

The ones being used on laptops are repurposed Desktop dies, which are used on Desktop Replacement laptops. Neither AMD and Intel short and medium-term roadmap have stacked cache as a feature for their truly mobile solutions. And that's on laptops, which employ higher cost parts and are able to cool off a lot of heat. On the cost structure and thermal design of a fanless mobile tablet/phone, that's a very tall order.

 

[boomersooner2000]

Very expensive. Specially on modern nodes. But they're fundamental for modern high performance cores. So designers need to balance out between cost and performance. For consoles, which are a cost-effective application, you can skimp a bit on it because developers have finer grained ways to control the way their projects interact or hit it. But, of course, the less you have it, the more your performance suffer.

And games are specially latency sensitive, so having a lot of high-performance on-die cache is a great way to improve performance. But again, it's something infeasible for a console.

Can the gpu access the l3 cache from the cpu or is that fundamentally not a good design choice and it needs to be separate on the apu?

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Can the gpu access the l3 cache from the cpu or is that fundamentally not a good design choice and it needs to be separate on the apu?

Depend on your design. Intel iGPUs used to be able to access the L3 cache of the CPU cores, with the L3 cache acting as a SLC/LLC for the both CPU and GPU. But they changed it recently with Intel Meteor Lake and Intel Arc integrated graphics. And I believe some past Tegras also used to do the same, but probably has changed to exclusive access.

As I said, it depend on how your iGPU is designed and your SoC design. But most of the time it's not a good design choice because it leads to a lot of resource contention, wasted cycles and increased latency. It also stresses the memory subsystem more. Ideally both CPU and GPU should be able to access their own private pool of cache for hot instructions, with (If necessary), a SLC/LLC, which is a Last-Level Cache or Single Layer Cache, being a common accessible cache for the entire SoC before being forced into the external memory.

 

[Scrawnton]

Year one for Switch 2 needs something for everyone and all the major series need represented in some form.

I am going to assume NSO as is on Switch will be there so they can lean on that for a bit of advertisement.

Regarding the actual games. Within the first year, Switch 2 needs its new mainline 3D Mario, Mario Kart 9 (or 10), and some sort of traditional Zelda representation (a port of an older game counts but a spinoff like hyrule warriors does not) such as TP/WW 4K compilation or the oracle games remade. In addition to these obvious three pillars, they're going to need to introduce someone to push more online subs and I imagine we get a new multiplayer focused IP from Nintendo (but not a fighter like arms or a shooter like splatoon).

 

[Mr.Gamerson]

I thought the reveal presentation for Switch was like a 7/10, luckily Nintendo had BOTW and Mario Kart in the launch window. Games being improved on Switch 2 with BC + Some really great presentations/Directs leading to their first major system seller for Switch 2 should hold Nintendo over for a few months if they decide to launch in the spring or summer without anything guaranteed seller.

 

[Superstarxalien]

apologies in advance for talking about this guy

launch 16 feb 2024
pocket size console
150 euros