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Discussion As the Switch 2 release date keeps going further and further into the future; does the risk of commercial failure increase?

As the Switch 2 release date keeps going further and further into the future; does the risk of comme

  • Yeah, it could have a negative effect

    Votes: 80 33.9%

  • No, it largely does not matter

    Votes: 156 66.1%
  • Total voters
    236
isaacmaltes

isaacmaltes

Octorok
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any
I know I can’t say anything for certain since we were not promised a 2024 release date either way; but do you worry that a Switch 2; being repetitively pushed into the future, may have a chance at flopping like the Wii U?
 
No, but it probably isn't smart too wait too long if you want to appease third parties. Otherwise the Switch 2 will be fine.
 
I'm assuming this thread is being made in response to the recent NoA news, but like... I don't think it's a confirmation of being delayed again. Idk why people are thinking this.

Anyway, the Wii U's big issues came down to marketing and also lighting the candle too far away from release. When the Wii U was announced in 2011, it was a full year and a bit before the console released with a piss-poor announcement. The release had poor software, terrible marketing and a lack of incentive to buy it. I don't think Nintendo biding their time is too big of a problem because the Switch is still doing well for the time being. It's only going to be an issue when the Switch's momentum disappears for good.
 
It really depends on how late it releases. A potential delay from Fall 2024 to March 2025 (before the fiscal year ends) is not a big deal, but if the system slips into later 2025 and misses the next fiscal year, we will officially be in "seriously what the hell are you doing?" territory and some leadership positions need to be questioned.
 
If it's only a few months then no lol

You'd have to be pushing several years to see any impact. Let's not overreact
 
I feel like the vast majority of the public doesn't care about that. If they have proper marketing, a decent "hook" and at least one killer app they could release it in 2026* and they would be perfectly fine.

*Just in case, I'm not saying they should do it, God forbid.
 
The Wii U had many different reasons for it flopping. The Switch 2 becoming a 'Wii U level' flop is a possibility repeated very often, with no real thought behind it.
 
isaacmaltes said:
I know I can’t say anything for certain since we were not promised a 2024 release date either way; but do you worry that a Switch 2; being repetitively pushed into the future, may have a chance at flopping like the Wii U?
Click to expand...
WiiU’s problems were widespread and are well-documented, and not just down to a delay of a few months. The whole product concept, software pipeline and marketing were all flawed, but all problems the Switch solved. There’s being pessimistic and then there’s catastrophising.
 
I wouldn't say delaying to early 2025 would increase its chances of being a failure, a few months won't make a huge difference. The biggest risk would be Nintendo doing something crazy and trying to re-invent the wheel again but not succeeding at it. A few unique new features would be great, but honestly, they mainly need to iterate on the Switch and keep the same formula going.
 
If the delay is happening because of software then yes

Generally speaking them pushing it back might be indicative of them having trouble with software development

On the other hand if the delay is more precautionary and they want to ensure they have ample releases throughout, then it will be fine during its launch window
 
Where did “further and further” come from? As far as we know this was only delayed internally once.

Switch 1 also was delayed internally from Summer 2016 to March 2017.
 
N 2 Deep said:
If the delay is happening because of software then yes

Generally speaking them pushing it back might be indicative of them having trouble with software development

On the other hand if the delay is more precautionary and they want to ensure they have ample releases throughout, then it will be fine during its launch window
Click to expand...

I do expect software to take longer for Nintendo with Switch 2, just a natural thing we have seen in the industry. Hope they continue to build partnerships with close studios and some 3rd parties to fill out the lineups if that is the case.
 
I think there's an outside possibility they could try to keep the Switch going a bit too long and they lose most of their momentum before the successor comes out, but I don't think a difference of "late 2024" to "early-mid 2025" is gonna be a difference maker there, esp. so long as they can keep people engaged with sufficiently interesting software in the interim
 
The Switch has been doing great still in Japan, but it really does feel like it's losing some momentum in NA/EU. I think having something by the end of this year (or even like, right around now) would have been the best play to drive excitement. I feel like you don't want the sentiment to be a bunch of people who at that point likely haven't touched their Switch in over a year (let's be real there are a ton of people whose last Switch game was probably TOTK and it may very well stay TOTK until the Switch 2) now looking at it and being like "ehhh is this worth it?"
 
isaacmaltes said:
I know I can’t say anything for certain since we were not promised a 2024 release date either way; but do you worry that a Switch 2; being repetitively pushed into the future, may have a chance at flopping like the Wii U?
Click to expand...
it hasn’t been repetitively pushed into the future

not once

we operate on speculation and rumors and none of those things are announcements, and never have been

only fervent speculators feel like they have been dragged along. the wider world is not waiting for something that isn’t real to them yet. if it had been announced and then delayed, maybe?

but it still probably wouldn’t matter

Nintendo, other than their own internal timeline, is probably operating on data that we have no way of possibly knowing. I am certain they are working with a strategy, and time will show whether or not that strategy pays off.

I simply don’t believe that distance from the launch of the original Switch will have a meaningful impact on it, especially not with what is in the grand scheme of things a relatively small differential of suspected years
 
Doing a bit worse maybe. Flopping no. Unless the market changes an absolute tonne very quickly, or all the extra time had been optimising for an expensive gimmick few people end up liking.
 
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SoldierDelta said:
I'm assuming this thread is being made in response to the recent NoA news, but like... I don't think it's a confirmation of being delayed again. Idk why people are thinking this.

Anyway, the Wii U's big issues came down to marketing and also lighting the candle too far away from release. When the Wii U was announced in 2011, it was a full year and a bit before the console released with a piss-poor announcement. The release had poor software, terrible marketing and a lack of incentive to buy it. I don't think Nintendo biding their time is too big of a problem because the Switch is still doing well for the time being. It's only going to be an issue when the Switch's momentum disappears for good.
Click to expand...
What recent NOA news?
 
I think the further it gets, the harder that launch window has to hit.

I do think Nintendo are riding higher than they were at the end of the Wii's lifecycle. Because aside from the low power, Switch is still a system people do like to play on. The Wii kinda had that one trick pony feeling you had (With Wii Sports being a lot of people's only game) that just got exacerbated more at the end of it's life.

The software really has to hit though. No launching with New Super Mario Bros U, and a Switch 2 tech demo and leaving it like that for a year.
 
It depends. If it's the same hardware and the same software, releasing earlier would help. If either the hardware or the lineup sucks, I think a delay to address is absolutely for the better.

Wii U didn't come too late. The hardware sucked and the marketing was horrible. They would have WAY been better canceling it and releasing something different a few years later. And even if we go with "you can't change the hardware", I'd say they should have delayed it 2 years, so that they could have given the 3DS a better first year and also have some system sellers in the 12 months between NSMBU and 3D World.

We have many cases were little/no momentum led to huge success NES, PS, GB, Wii, PSP and Switch) and also have horrible starts following a very strong momentum (PS3 and 3DS Valve: "The problem is obviously that cursed number" ).
 
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isaacmaltes said:
I know I can’t say anything for certain since we were not promised a 2024 release date either way; but do you worry that a Switch 2; being repetitively pushed into the future, may have a chance at flopping like the Wii U?
Click to expand...
if Nintendo take too long to launch Switch sucessor, it might negatively impact it sales potencial, they need to launch Switch sucessor, when theres still a stronger sales momentum for Nintendo Switch, launch too late and you risk having a underperforming console, launch at the right timing and you have a sale phenomenon
 
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As long as the Nintendo brand remains popular, a delay with the Switch 2 should have negligible effects at the end of the day.
 
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isaacmaltes said:
I know I can’t say anything for certain since we were not promised a 2024 release date either way; but do you worry that a Switch 2; being repetitively pushed into the future, may have a chance at flopping like the Wii U?
Click to expand...
It seems that your post answers the question itself. A delay compared to what? What was announced, can we postpone something that was never officially planned?

For the rest, it’s very simple: all Nintendo consoles that have been industrial disasters had problems with the game library at the time of their launch. I prefer fans to be impatient and shareholders upset if it avoids the problems of the gamecube or Wii U.
 
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I really think we need to remember how much of a bubble we operate in here. Like, your regular ma and pa aren't sitting there staring at third party releases running at sub-30 FPS thinking that a new Switch has got to come soon. It's still selling. Yeah, the hardware sales are declining, but they can't go up forever like the bean counters want and expect.

If the new Switch launches late next year with a new Mario Kart or 3D Mario or Metroid (lol) it will be fine. And if it isn't fine, it isn't because they waited too long.
 
There's going to be some point (which we can't exactly identify) that will have been the most effective time to launch, and launching in 2117 would definitely be too late. The further along that timeline we go, the worse.
 
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ngpdrew said:
I really think we need to remember how much of a bubble we operate in here. Like, your regular ma and pa aren't sitting there staring at third party releases running at sub-30 FPS thinking that a new Switch has got to come soon. It's still selling. Yeah, the hardware sales are declining, but they can't go up forever like the bean counters want and expect.

If the new Switch launches late next year with a new Mario Kart or 3D Mario or Metroid (lol) it will be fine. And if it isn't fine, it isn't because they waited too long.
Click to expand...

This is my mindset really.

Also I'm sure that news mentioning "no new first party titles to work on" was to curb anyone attempting to jump to conclusions.....and well....
 
Not really, but as we get further from say Holiday 2024, we do get closer potentially to other things that could steal attention/customer dollars in a challenging economy where luxuries like new gaming consoles perhaps aren't the priority... GTA VI in particular and how much that could potentially drive hardware sales to play it on (ie: PS5/PS5 Pro, PC, potentially Series S does well as a GTA VI machine).

Now obviously Nintendo are playing their own game largely nowadays, but were it me, I would love to be launching in 2024 where the "competition" have both basically said they got nothing for the year and have a whole Christmas/Black Friday season to myself as the hot hardware - so I feel like yeah, there is a risk, by delaying it beyond March 2024, of running into some competition that wouldn't exist were it to launch sooner - but not to the extent that the Switch 2 will fail because of it as long as they have a strong game line up and the hardware is appealing/not confusing - that's the key thing to get right.
 
Delaying the console is probably for the best in the long run, since Nintendo don't want to pull a Gamecube/Wii U.
If the switch 2 has
  • compelling first party exclusives
  • good marketing
  • doesn't rely much on third party support
  • has a good indie scene
  • And the promise of a consistent output of first party games
Like, every time Nintendo relies on third party game, they either gives up creates some of the most mid games, known to man. Like if Nintendo show's a brand new 3D Mario, that's similar to bowser fury as a launch game and sprinkle in new IPs and some remasters, remakes and ending it with Mario Kart X, then Nintendo has pretty much hit the goldmine.

What makes the Nintendo ecosystem different compare to Sony and Xbox is that we're pretty much willing to play anything Nintendo throws at us and similar to the Switch, we'll see a higher influx of Indie games in it's first year.

Third party support, i'm so iffy, since there's a chance of it being bitching, but also having it stink and compromised. (looking at you mass effect 3 on the Wii U)
 
Jahranimo said:
This is my mindset really.

Also I'm sure that news mentioning "no new first party titles to work on" was to curb anyone attempting to jump to conclusions.....and well....
Click to expand...
Anyway, there are no more games on Nintendo switch since tears of the kingdom.

The situation is serious, we do not realize: Nintendo is so desperate that they were forced to release an obscure little 2D game for the last Christmas period. A very modest game, produced by a perfect stranger since no one has ever heard of takashi tezuka in the video games industry, as we all know.
 
We have zero evidence that it’s being pushed “further and further.” At best we have a single piece on it being delayed from late 2024 to early 2025.

Even if it was bumped to say, mid-late 2025, I’m not sure we could draw any conclusions on how that might impact the platform. We don’t know what it looks like, what games it will have, etc. It’s not like Switch (1) released while Nintendo was in excellent standing. No reason to assume they can’t do well even if their momentum has faltered.
 
Lugia667 said:
...I didn't realize NOA is the only place that does testing
Click to expand...
I think it depend on the game, like Nintendo of Japan are most likely game testing switch 2 games, since Japan is Nintendo HQ and they'll want to have a keen eye of nothing to get leaked.

Plus Retro Studio have their own game testers, since they're always asking for them on their websites. (I think)

Overall it depend on which game they're developing, Like game testing games, that hasn't been announce on a new system is different, compare to something that we know of.
 
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There is one and only ONE thing that will determine the succes of failure of the Switch successor.

Are you ready to hear it OP? The answer will SHOCK you.

What will determine wether or not the Switch 2 will sell is its line-up of games both at launch as well as after launch. That is all that matters.

Timing does not matter here, pricing does not matter even. The only thing that truly matters are the games. Will Nintendo and other parties have good software ready that can sell a new hardware system to the mass market yes or no.
 
boodream said:
Anyway, there are no more games on Nintendo switch since tears of the kingdom.

The situation is serious, we do not realize: Nintendo is so desperate that they were forced to release an obscure little 2D game for the last Christmas period. A very modest game, produced by a perfect stranger since no one has ever heard of takashi tezuka in the video games industry, as we all know.
Click to expand...
Off topic Mario wonder, went hard.
 
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The Switch 2 will probably not have the crazy success the current Switch has. I do think it will be successful if Nintendo keeps rolling as they do now with their own games, which is in the end, for many the reason to buy a Nintendo console.
 
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I think Nintendo should have revealed the thing by this day and date, they're unnecessarily hiding it for no appealing reason. Everyone knows it's around the corner at this point, why not do the obvious and just announce it? I think they're creating anxiety and uncertainty among their fanbase by keeping it unannounced by now.

I don't think delaying the announcement per se will negatively impact it, unless it's a major Wii U-like fumble, but they could settle down the expectations a bit
 
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The release date largely doesn’t matter. What matters is having good hardware at the right price, good marketing that gets people excited, and a solid first year of games. If they waited until like 2030 then yeah it would matter. But just being “later” isn’t gonna make a difference. What do people who say this stuff think is gonna happen? That people are going to avoid buying it out of spite because it came out “later”?
 
dolpic said:
Is the trauma from the Wii U this deep to warrant a thread like this? Have the wounds not healed 😭
Click to expand...
Honestly, whenever someone wants to peddle some bullshit about Nintendo failing or their sales going down any minute now, the only thing they have to do is to yell out the words "Buh-BUT THE WII U!!!" and instantly people will take the argument seriously.

By now, I'd say it's time to let go of any Wii U like scenario. It happened more then a decade ago, it's like citing the SNES for arguing why the Gamecube will no doubt be incredibly succesfull. In any case, the Nintendo of today is no longer the company it was in 2012. Hell, it's not even the company it was when it launched the Switch. Whatever mistakes it's going to make will be new ones. Not old ones.
 
I find the premise of the thread itself faulty. I don't see how the success of the Switch 2 depends on a release date that hasn't even been officially announced yet.

This hand-wringing over the release date "being pushed back" has only ever been a point of worry in hardcore enthusiast circles. Most people are just... playing games on the Switch that's out right now.
 
At some point it will be harder to use the synergy of current Switch for the next console. If it would release after early 2025, they would basically need either bigger games to keep Switch alive or then have a strong new approach to get back their audience.

At least for now it‘s not too late that they can win over most of the Switch Userbase, though I feel like it lost a quite a bit of relevancy in the past few months for many.

They come dangerously close to the situation where they were 2011-2012 with the Wii. No one really cared for the Wii anymore, because there were not too many new big games, the brand didn‘t really evolve since the launch of the console and it felt ancient to other platforms, while casual audiences moved on to mobile. This made it even harder for the WiiU because it felt more of the same coming way to late.

This could happen to a Switch 2 too, if it comes late, isn‘t that different to the Switch at first glance and at that point might feels a bit underpowered to a potential new console generation including other handhelds (XBOX Handheld?), the hype wouldn‘t be really that big anymore.

Still, I don‘t feel they are there yet, if they announce the next hardware this year I don‘t see them running in this issue at all.
 
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"As the Switch 2 release date keeps going further and further into the future"​



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2024 seemed perfect for me. Blank slate first party calendars for the competition, no major hardware launching (PS5 Pro is rumored to be delayed out of '24), 2023 was an all time great Nintendo year with huge momentum, and 2025 will have the biggest gaming event in over a decade with the launch of GTA VI, a game that'll launch on every console except the one that you're announcing. Launching a console in a year where it won't be the biggest gaming event seems like a bad idea.

Now we're almost 4 months into 2024 with only a partner direct from Nintendo and no games slated for the second half. There's obviously going to be a direct that announces a slew of releases for the remainder of the year, but I do think that the decrease in momentum might hurt them a bit.

Who knows. After all, most times I try to predict anything surrounding Nintendo I end up being completely wrong. Here's to them launching the Switch 2 with Pokemon ZA, 3D Mario, Mario Kart, and Metroid Prime 4 in its first year, making the Switch 2 the fastest selling console ever or something
 
The only way I could see it having any negative effect is Nintendo oriented 3rd parties getting impatient and carving out a substantial consumer base on other platforms instead of waiting for better hardware. That hasn’t happened yet nor do I expect it to happen though.

The Switch is still selling strong, and the lower entry price is a boon in an otherwise ballooning market. It’ll be fine.
 
It's going to depend on how much of a difference whatever switch 2's gimmick makes. If it's largely just another switch then yes, switch 1 is losing momentum and it doesn't seem like it's going to get any major games for its remaining life cycle baring a few cross gen stuff.
 
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