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Discussion As the Switch 2 release date keeps going further and further into the future; does the risk of commercial failure increase?

As the Switch 2 release date keeps going further and further into the future; does the risk of comme

  • Yeah, it could have a negative effect

    Votes: 80 33.9%

  • No, it largely does not matter

    Votes: 156 66.1%
  • Total voters
    236
Scrawnton said:
It really depends on how late it releases. A potential delay from Fall 2024 to March 2025 (before the fiscal year ends) is not a big deal, but if the system slips into later 2025 and misses the next fiscal year, we will officially be in "seriously what the hell are you doing?" territory and some leadership positions need to be questioned.
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Honest question: is this really the case when the Switch and its new games are still selling quite well? Obviously the sales are not what they were years ago, but it is still selling fairly well especially considering its age. Maybe Nintendo wants to draw this continued success out as long as possible before they take a risk with a new platform? They're probably quite anxious after the failure of Wii U and want to let Switch go as long as it can before they replace it.
 
I'm still not really sure how we got from "Switch 2 might be internally delayed out of 2024 into 2025" and "one out of hundred testers that doesn't work for Nintendo of America anymore claims to not have seen the Switch 2 yet" to "Switch 2 release date keeps going further and further into the future"
 
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0
The lineup of 1st year games is the most important thing. As switch 1 is still selling, they have the time to cook and improve the games. That’s the most important thing for Nintendo.
 
No, in fact it's the other way around. The more they wait, the more Switch 2 will seem like an appealing new product. No "you don't need a new Switch Timmy, we already got one at home".

If I were Nintendo I'd be seriously considering a holiday 2025 launch as long as there's enough games to support Switch during 2024-2025, even if they are more low profile releaes.
 
Hard for me to worry about the release date getting pushed back when there was never an officially announced release date to begin with. I think it'll be fine.
 
Its a long take for sure. I mean, im sure that japan has also a qa deparment. It make more sense that switch 2 games will be tested there. Maybe they used the NOA for switch 1 games. Also, we are still a year away from its release (based on the rumors)


Anyway lets say that the release date would be pushed back. The only concern i have is that the hw is already finished.
 
0
It could have a negative effect but not right now. If Switch had died like Wii did before U came out, it would be a problem yes. Switch is going strong. Switch 2 will arrive in time!
JorgenRaft said:
If the Switch 2 doesn't release in 2025, then the Switch 2's sales in 2025 are going to be horrible, yes.
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Yeah probably this
 
0
The longer you wait, the more time you give switch kids to psychologically associate Switch with childhood. You want to sell them a new one while they still want it, before they become surly teens who think switch is for babies and want a PS5 for FIFA EA Sports FC
 
beej said:
one thing for sure, the more they delay the switch 2, the tech will start becoming really outdated at launch
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Respectfully disagree (within reason). The tech is dated sure but not outdated.

A78 is a cpu from 2020. But does the newer stuff runs circles around it in gaming? No. Even Qualcom still uses it in some of their gaming focused socs.

Ampere is from 2020. But it's still a better fit for gaming than the latest architecture of most if not all of the competing companies. 1556 cuda cores is quite awesome, and if Nintendo doesn't downclock the hell out of it it's going to pack a punch compared to anything in 2025.
 
0
I voted no, but there's just no way of knowing.

Personally, I just don't expect a hard cut between generations this time around. The larger part of Nintendo's internal releases will still be playable on all OG Switch models for the foreseeable future, at lower frame rates and resolution. Sony kinda did this with the jump from PS4 to PS5, Microsoft did it with the jump from Xbox One to Xbox Series and I expect Nintendo to follow suit.

With the exception of software that's isn't going to sell to that wider audience of parents buying their kids something for Christmas (think Metroid Prime 4, Xenoblade or Bayonetta), I feel everything in development at Nintendo right now is going to at least be running in some capacity on 2017 Switch. New 3D Mario, new Pokémon, new Mario Kart, new Smash, new Animal Crossing, new Splatoon, new Luigi's Mansion; I fully except all of those playable on original hardware. Nintendo's going to be banking on third party support, coupled with one or two exclusives within the famed release window, plus the promise that all their other games will look better and run stable, to sell Switch 2 to that initial audience of 45 to 60 million.

This would prevent your typical Nintendo hardware end-of-life software draught and open up the possibilty of a price drop of the original hardware to keep sales momentum going for the entire ecosystem, freeing up the premium price point for the new model in the process.

If (most of) this turns out correct, a 'delay' of the launch out of the holiday period and into the first half of 2025 makes perfect sense and might actually benefit momentum of Switch's ecosystem and the release of a Switch 2. But if it doesn't and the second half of 2024 turns out to be a barren wasteland with releases few and far between and Nintendo keeps the pricepoint for the original hardware what it is, than yes, the 'delay' will be harmful.
 
0
i don't think a 2025 release delay is anywhere close to a death sentence for the console or anything, but it's still a pretty big fumble imo; nintendo's whole competition is pretty much in a complete rut atm with empty first party offerings and lackluster unit sales and a 2024 holiday release would've been the perfect opportunity to strike that iron while it's still hot.
 
This is an actually very complex topic, but in marketing it's brought down to four factors: product, price, place, promotion.
In a nutshell it means in these four areas you need to be successful to make it; the product itself needs a strong USP and cater to an audience, the price needs to work in a market environment (this also factors in competition, economic climate, margin), place is the means of distribution (eg the retail landscape and opportunities to sell the hardware and games) and promotion is the campaign itself, which again can be broken down into many things. What is the actual sales objective? What is the best window to stand out? When are consumers spending? What is the right value proposition? What markets and timings provide the best ROI and cheapest return on ad spend?
Overall it's a huge jigsaw puzzle. Timing plays a crucial role but it's not just about a the period people need to wait. A delay can make a lot of sense if the product proposition can be stronger then, if the market opportunity looks better (again, combination of buying power and media/marketing cost).
I can assure even if things seem random from the outside, Nintendo will consider all of this and then make an internal decision if delaying but having a better proposal or pushing a release with some issues makes more sense from an economic standpoint.
But with their brand heritage and coming from Switch, a delay from late 2024 to any point in 2025 won't really hurt them, the "product" has to be their most important consideration.
 
What really matters for the launch of a new console is its first year launch lineup, the pricetag and its marketing. If Nintendo nail those three then Switch 2 will be a success regardless of when it releases
 
it is a difficult topic:

- on one side surely waiting too long would negatively impact, not because old hardware per sé, but because of hardwrae saturation and obviosu software possible draught

- on the other side the global economics are terrible, also in terms of videogame spending, so maybe if it has been actually pusehd back to 2025...MAYBE it could be better for it
 
0
Yeah, I believe the right moment was this year and that some gamers bored with Switch will jump to other platforms and stay there a while. So it will hurt the success.

Although I still think a Switch 2 with a good launch line-up and a noticeable improvement over Switch will do great next year.
 
0
In theory, the switch 2 could be announced tomorrow, released next week, not have enough games, and be a failure. But at least, if the hardware comes out now it will be less obsolete than if it comes out later. Yaaay.
 
The demand is there and if anything it's growing so they'll be fine either way. I just find it absolutely baffling they weren't ready to release it in 2024 as the Switch is now desperately underpowered.
 
JB2448 said:
The Switch 2 release date can’t slip into the future if it hasn’t even been announced.
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This.

Either way, there are benefits as well as drawbacks if the date has indeed slipped internally.

The tech is probably going to be cheaper to manufacture, has had additional time for refinement, and the software will benefit from extra cooking time.

On the flip side, the perceived 'outdated' nature of the hardware will always be a sticking point with the core (it will be comparatively outdated compared to Switch at launch), but that shouldn't really be a sticking point for Nintendo.

At the end of the day, regardless of what it is called, it will all come down to the reveal, communication, and marketing. After the past decade, one would think that they have learned a thing or two about what works and what doesn't.
 
0
Depends on how the Switch mind share and buzz is when the console drops.

The Wii had a serious issue of a lot of the user base having shelved it before its actual life was even over, so the WiiU had to content but only with being mistaken for an accessory, but also being an accessory for a console no one had played in ages.

I don't think mind share for the Switch has even begun to drop, even if sales are slowing down. Of course, maybe in a year things will be different, but I don't think it would be that noticeable. It would take a couple more years for that to happen.
 
browneyes84 said:
What's the current rumoured Switch 2 release date? Last I heard it was Early 2025?
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It's still that, according to Bloomberg it could be pushed further.

We don't know if they're just saying that to be on the safe side, or they have a source on it.
 
0
I like how the Wii U burned people so badly that it's as if 7 years of colossal success with the Switch never happened and Nintendo is on the thinnest possible layer of ice before another Wii U-scale disaster.
 
In the vast field of possibilities, anything along these lines is possible, now will it actually harm it? I don't know, it depends on many other (more important) factors.
 
0
Depends on their launch games.

If it's a 4k port of BOTW running on a slightly better HW, It's not gonna be a fun time.
 
0
If anything I think it’s a positive impact that it’s taking so long. I am seeing more and more people who aren't chronically online gaming forums show hunger and curiosity for Nintendo’s next console. They can’t wait forever, but I think the wider public interest and appetite for it to exist hasn‘t peaked yet.
 
0
It’s… not getting pushed “further and further into the future.” It’s rumored to be delayed out of this year, and that’s it.

Are you guys okay Fami? I think the lack of Switch 2 news is making some of you lose it.
 
Despite being a little overblown in retrospect, the intense pessimism leading up to the Switch 1's release at least made sense considering we were coming out of a really bad phase for Nintendo. The console had a lot to prove and there were genuine concerns that, if Nintendo didn't deliver, they could be done for.

Having this level of worry for the Switch 2 doesn't really make much sense to me. I mean, anything's possible, but to act like we are just one slight misstep away from disaster is kind of confusing considering the Switch is Nintendo's second-best-selling platform ever.
 
Anyone voting yes will still be begrudgingly buying a Switch 2 even if it released in 2026.

The only people affected by these unannounced internal delays are us, the insular forum dwelling folks of a Nintendo-enthusiast board. I agree patience is wearing thin and it's increasingly frustrating that Nintendo is playing dumb as if we don't know it's coming, but at the same time all we can hope for is that there will be plenty of stock available at launch, it has a couple killer games to knock it out of the park, and that it won't be overpriced.
 
Well, we don’t actually know for a fact what Nintendo‘s plans were before this supposed “delay” as they haven’t announced anything official.

I think it stands to reason that Nintendo is merely waiting to release the new device and software after the yen has rebounded in strength somewhere toward the end of 2024.

All of this conjecture about “delays” and the supposed reasons for it are truly all conjecture. It’s only delayed if Nintendo announced it and then changed plans after the fact.
 
boodream said:
In theory, the switch 2 could be announced tomorrow, released next week, not have enough games, and be a failure. But at least, if the hardware comes out now it will be less obsolete than if it comes out later. Yaaay.
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If it was backwards compatible it would have lots of games.
 
Ab said:
If it was backwards compatible it would have lots of games.
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Backward compatibility will be a necessary quality but absolutely not sufficient in my opinion. People need games that motivate them to buy a new console. I love Mario, probably more than Zelda if I’m honest. But I don’t know if a new Mario game, even if it is absolutely exceptional and even if I wait for it with a huge desire and a huge impatience, will be able to do what breath of the wild has accomplished for the switch.

It is a game that has brought a new audience to the franchise and brought many players back to Nintendo.

A new Zelda will be missing at the launch of the next console in my opinion, but the next console will have Metroid Prime 4, the first new Mario kart for 10 years, a Pokémon from the first year what was not the case initially for the switch 1, and obviously 3D Mario which in my opinion will be the launch game and which will be extraordinarily important for the future.
 
lexony said:
At some point it will be harder to use the synergy of current Switch for the next console. If it would release after early 2025, they would basically need either bigger games to keep Switch alive or then have a strong new approach to get back their audience.

At least for now it‘s not too late that they can win over most of the Switch Userbase, though I feel like it lost a quite a bit of relevancy in the past few months for many.

They come dangerously close to the situation where they were 2011-2012 with the Wii. No one really cared for the Wii anymore, because there were not too many new big games, the brand didn‘t really evolve since the launch of the console and it felt ancient to other platforms, while casual audiences moved on to mobile.
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FWIW, Switch's current hardware numbers at ~7 years are pretty comparable to Wii at ~4 years in late 2010, and software still stronger than Wii ever saw, so I think to get as bad a situation as Wii->WiiU would probably take launch being 2026 or later.
 
boodream said:
Backward compatibility will be a necessary quality but absolutely not sufficient in my opinion. People need games that motivate them to buy a new console. I love Mario, probably more than Zelda if I’m honest. But I don’t know if a new Mario game, even if it is absolutely exceptional and even if I wait for it with a huge desire and a huge impatience, will be able to do what breath of the wild has accomplished for the switch.

It is a game that has brought a new audience to the franchise and brought many players back to Nintendo.

A new Zelda will be missing at the launch of the next console in my opinion, but the next console will have Metroid Prime 4, the first new Mario kart for 10 years, a Pokémon from the first year what was not the case initially for the switch 1, and obviously 3D Mario which in my opinion will be the launch game and which will be extraordinarily important for the future.
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I think the expectation are huge for 3D Mario, since Bowser fury showed us a glimpse of the next Mario game. An seamless open world, in which you can go boot up the game and not think of loading screen, like having the thought of Mario having a platforming challenge of climbing a mountain to reach a secret Snow level, just sounds like absolute Cinema. Like the 3D Mario team are in my opinion one of the most impressive developers in the industry.

I'm wondering what the remaining line up might be.

My expectation are pretty low, when it comes to third party, despite the bigger influx of third party games expecting to come for the switch 2.

Like what makes the Switch 2 extremely unique is that this will be the first time in Nintendo history in which we'll see Nintendo handheld and console division being there at the beginning, since the 3ds got support for 3 years and also that the handheld division are more knowledgeable of console hardware.
 
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Whether the Switch 2 comes out in November 2024 or March 2025 will not change anything. The success of the console will be determined solely by the games. One of the most important keys to the success of the Switch was Nintendo's remarkable ability to consistently release numerous first-party games every year. If this trend continues with the Switch 2, then there will be no impediment to the console's success. If there are plenty of games to play, players are happy. 🙂
 
Nathair said:
Whether the Switch 2 comes out in November 2024 or March 2025 will not change anything. The success of the console will be determined solely by the games. One of the most important keys to the success of the Switch was Nintendo's remarkable ability to consistently release numerous first-party games every year. If this trend continues with the Switch 2, then there will be no impediment to the console's success. If there are plenty of games to play, players are happy. 🙂
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If there's a new Donkey Kong game for the switch 2 i'll be set for live
donkey-kong-country-wait.gif
 
Brofield said:
Anyone voting yes will still be begrudgingly buying a Switch 2 even if it released in 2026.

The only people affected by these unannounced internal delays are us, the insular forum dwelling folks of a Nintendo-enthusiast board. I agree patience is wearing thin and it's increasingly frustrating that Nintendo is playing dumb as if we don't know it's coming, but at the same time all we can hope for is that there will be plenty of stock available at launch, it has a couple killer games to knock it out of the park, and that it won't be overpriced.
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My interest in a Switch 2 has already greatly diminished, and I'd be more likely to pick up a SteamDeck 2 (expected 2026) than a Switch 2 if the former is released prior to the latter, barring some tremendously appealing-to-me exclusive launch titles (Metroid + Fire Emblem) or surprisingly low pricing ($199-$250), both of which are unlikely.
 
em said:
My interest in a Switch 2 has already greatly diminished, and I'd be more likely to pick up a SteamDeck 2 (expected 2026) than a Switch 2 if the former is released prior to the latter, barring some tremendously appealing-to-me exclusive launch titles (Metroid + Fire Emblem) or surprisingly low pricing ($199-$250), both of which are unlikely.
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My interest in one unannounced device with no confirmed games is diminished by the existence of another unannounced device with no knowledge of what additional games it'll be able to play.
 
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