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Sales Data Ampere Analysis forecasts the next Switch for late 2024 ; return on predictions made last year

meatbag said:
For now we'd have to assume that they have the same general plan for 2023 as they do for 2022-- offset the dip in hardware sales with revenue from software and their other ventures. Regardless, if the Switch does 15 million units in its sixth year and 10 million in its seventh, that would be nothing to scoff at.
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It's 15 million during the seventh year and 10 during the eighth, if the launch is planned for Q4 2024. Shifted by 1 quarter, but still closer to 8 years than 7.
 
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meatbag said:
For now we'd have to assume that they have the same general plan for 2023 as they do for 2022-- offset the dip in hardware sales with revenue from software and their other ventures. Regardless, if the Switch does 15 million units in its sixth year and 10 million in its seventh, that would be nothing to scoff at.
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The numbers are fine but the way they would massively affect Nintendo's revenue for those years is something investors would not be happy with.

Of course that doesn't mean Nintendo has to listen to investors but it's something to keep in mind.
 
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efyu_lemonardo said:
It's not a matter of "if" but "how much" will revenue slide. And how much will such a slide affect mindshare. All I'm trying to say, admittedly not accurately enough, is that there could be a trade-off between revenue and mindshare. You could make the case for the latter being more important to launching a new system.
And since this is Nintendo's only hardware for the first time since the 80s, they may have a strong desire to keep it in people's awareness, which they could achieve with price cuts on hardware and software, stronger marketing, or by launching a late-gen killer-app, depending on what happens over the next three years.

Ideally, they probably would have wanted to keep selling switches at a reduced price for a good while after the successor launches, but current manufacturing constraints probably rule out that possibility.
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Ultimately, what the average consumer remembers, and what keeps Nintendo in the forefront of mindshare, is not the hardware, but the software, the games, the IP, and the experiences consumers have alone and with their companions, the hardware is merely a vehicle to get these games in their hands. With over 100 million units of hardware in consumers hands, that job has already been accomplished. Hardware reaching a saturation point is not a sign of diminishing mindshare, it's a sign that mindshare has peaked. Evergreens will continue to sell hand over fist and remain on top of the charts until the Switch successor is released and beyond.
 
Kreese said:
Ultimately, what the average consumer remembers, and what keeps Nintendo in the forefront of mindshare, is not the hardware, but the software, the games, the IP, and the experiences consumers have alone and with their companions, the hardware is merely a vehicle to get these games in their hands. With over 100 million units of hardware in consumers hands, that job has already been accomplished. Hardware reaching a saturation point is not a sign of diminishing mindshare, it's a sign that mindshare has peaked. Evergreens will continue to sell hand over fist and remain on top of the charts until the Switch successor is released and beyond.
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You can keep saying that but obviously at some point, with technology marching on, it stops being true. Three years is an eternity in this industry. It's not 2023 that I'm worried about, it's 2024 and beyond, especially if Switch 2 doesn't knock it out of the park on launch like Switch did.
 
We'll be fixed soon in regard to it launching next FY or not (next month most likely) but from what I'm reading from Chris1964 on Install Base, it looks like Furukawa has got several conversations to investors that indicate they aren't planning to launch a new console next FY.
 
efyu_lemonardo said:
You can keep saying that but obviously at some point, with technology marching on, it stops being true. Three years is an eternity in this industry. It's not 2023 that I'm worried about, it's 2024 and beyond, especially if Switch 2 doesn't knock it out of the park on launch like Switch did.
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I'll eat my shoe if the Switch doesn't have several games still killing it charting in the Top 10, Top 15, Top 25 best selling games in 2024.
 
I just hope software will be ready for its first year. We know first party have to start with a bang, as third party will once again take the "wait and see" approach, although less obvious than with the switch.
 
Herb Alpert said:
I just hope software will be ready for its first year. We know first party have to start with a bang, as third party will once again take the "wait and see" approach, although less obvious than with the switch.
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I think their first and third party support will be very strong out of the gate. I'm not expecting AAA parity with the other platforms, but the best we've seen from them in modern times.
 
Kano said:
We'll be fixed soon in regard to it launching next FY or not (next month most likely) but from what I'm reading from Chris1964 on Install Base, it looks like Furukawa has got several conversations to investors that indicate they aren't planning to launch a new console next FY.
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All he seems to be referring to is expectations and forecasts for Switch hardware. If a new model is also counted as a Switch then his conclusion is flawed.
 
Kreese said:
I'll eat my shoe if the Switch doesn't have several games still killing it charting in the Top 10, Top 15, Top 25 best selling games in 2024.
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I really do understand your enthusiasm, it's not like I wish for Nintendo to not succeed.

But the transition from Wii+DS to Wii U+3DS proves that even the biggest money trains have their limits, and present success doesn't guarantee future success. It's wise to be cautious when attempting to predict so many years ahead.
 
Skittzo said:
All he seems to be referring to is expectations and forecasts for Switch hardware. If a new model is also counted as a Switch then his conclusion is flawed.
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It's not just that. It looks like Furukawa has given more indications on what kind of upgrade it'd be and the next FY forecast doesnt look like it's going to allow for a big new system. But we'll see soon.
 
efyu_lemonardo said:
I really do understand your enthusiasm, it's not like I wish for Nintendo to not succeed.

But the transition from Wii+DS to Wii U+3DS proves that even the biggest money trains have their limits, and present success doesn't guarantee future success. It's wise to be cautious when attempting to predict so many years ahead.
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True. I'm not basing my opinion on enthusiasm though, just the simple fact that logically speaking, the Switch is selling off the back of a much more stable market than either the DS or the Wii, which were the beneficiaries of a fleeting group on non-gamers. Not to mention the fact that the Switch is now Nintendo's lone consolidated platform and they're not spreading themselves too thin between two devices. They don't need to chase gimmicks at this point as they've found their footing. It's never out of the realm of possibility that they'll do something completely idiotic and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but it seems very unlikely this time out.
 
Kano said:
We'll be fixed soon in regard to it launching next FY or not (next month most likely) but from what I'm reading from Chris1964 on Install Base, it looks like Furukawa has got several conversations to investors that indicate they aren't planning to launch a new console next FY.
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In 2020 and 2021 Furukawa made comments at the 9 month briefing in late January/early February which indicated Nintendo's hardware plans for the year, so yeah we might even have a significant clue in about 4 weeks' time. If not, it'll be May and the new FY forecast to wait for.
 
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I can see a scenario in which BOTW2, Splatoon 3 and a new 3D Mario join the list of Nintendo evergreens and keep selling big numbers until a new console releases, which will alleviate some of the lost revenue as the Switch winds down. These peppered with new instalments in some of their more front loaded, lesser selling series like Fire Emblem/Xenoblade/Donkey Kong should help keep software healthy as well. If the next two years sees games like these release then sales should still be healthy enough, but 2024 is the absolute latest they can get away with it I feel.

And people will always take potshots at Nintendo graphics because it's the lowest hanging fruit to reconcile their grumpiness at how their consoles continue to sell. It fits the same narrative as 'Cross gen games hold graphics back'. They perform mental gymnastics to come to the conclusion Nintendo are somehow 'placing handbrakes on the industry' to justify the fact they straight up just don't like the company.
 
Kano said:
It's not just that. It looks like Furukawa has given more indications on what kind of upgrade it'd be and the next FY forecast doesnt look like it's going to allow for a big new system. But we'll see soon.
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That's not the sense I got from Chris's post, but who knows.

To me it sounds like he's hearing about their expectations for Switch hardware this year and heard some indication on the level of upgrade planned, but doesn't know when that upgrade is planned. He seems to be basing the "November 2022 never being planned" based on 1) the forecast given to retailers for this year, which again only works if you assume this new model isn't being counted as a Switch and 2) the idea that it would be a Switch Pro with a successor coming not too long later, which only works if you discount the possibility that a new model can serve as both a pro and a new gen, which I've been saying for like 3 years now.
 
It would be weird for Nintendo to be 7/8 years behind its competitors with respect to 4K/HDR gaming.

Nintendo titles are screaming out for better performance, and I’m personally having trouble adjusting to switch games after the Series X / PS5. It’s honestly a night and day difference, and don’t get me started on switch owners still only having black/white themes.

I feel like 2024 is leaving it too late, but with global chip shortages continuing, perhaps it’s best to plan with caution.
 
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Kreese said:
True. I'm not basing my opinion on enthusiasm though, just the simple fact that logically speaking, the Switch is selling off the back of a much more stable market than either the DS or the Wii, which were the beneficiaries of a fleeting group on non-gamers. Not to mention the fact that the Switch is now Nintendo's lone consolidated platform and they're not spreading themselves too thin between two devices. They don't need to chase gimmicks at this point as they've found their footing. It's never out of the realm of possibility that they'll do something completely idiotic and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but it seems very unlikely this time out.
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Don't know if I'd call people in lockdown looking for activities to get their minds off of a global pandemic a much more stable market. Those same people may have very different priorities in a few years, once the world opens back up and the full economic impact of all that decreased productivity is more evident in their wallets. Add to that supply constraints and uncertainties which could continue to have significant effects on production pipelines and product prices, and the usual software uncertainties, and I think you can see it's not strictly only up to Nintendo to not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
 
Skipper93653 said:
I hope so, I want them to make Captain Toad 2... the levels they made for DLC look really cool and sounds like they are well made levels so I think they are fit to make a Captain Toad sequel.
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That would be a very good and safe candidate for a first independent project on a bigger scale.
 
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efyu_lemonardo said:
Don't know if I'd call people in lockdown looking for activities to get their minds off of a global pandemic a much more stable market. Those same people may have very different priorities in a few years, once the world opens back up and the full economic impact of all that decreased productivity is more evident in their wallets. Add to that supply constraints and uncertainties which could continue to have significant effects on production pipelines and product prices, and the usual software uncertainties, and I think you can see it's not strictly only up to Nintendo to not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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This sounds more like an argument for why people wouldn’t be buying expensive new consoles. Or an argument for introducing a price cut instead of a successor.
 
meatbag said:
This sounds more like an argument for why people wouldn’t be buying expensive new consoles. Or an argument for introducing a price cut instead of a successor.
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A new console is more geared towards enthusiasts who bought Switch in 2017-2019, not the people who entered the market during the pandemic.
 
Skittzo said:
A new console is more geared towards enthusiasts who bought Switch in 2017-2019, not the people who entered the market during the pandemic.
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Ah, that makes sense. I do agree that anywhere between Nov 2023 to Nov 2024 would be good dates to launch the next Nintendo system on.
 
I don't think Chris1964 will be of any help in this.
Similarly he fought mh switch existence till the bitter end lol, even using forecast against it while in 2020 credible sources had multiplied pointing to it.
Anecdotally it was the same for splatoon 3 and there were a lot less long running rumours to get annoyed by.
 
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Switch could hit 50% of its 2020 sales in 22/23 but if Switch 2 cannot both meet that same 50% of sales AND add additional sales then Nintendo would be silly to launch as they would cut the Switch 1 legs dead (look at PS4). Nintendo has a big 2022 for software, hardware will continue to decline but does not matter if software continues to perform for them.
 
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Analysts predict based on available data and will err on the side of caution. I'd take this with a bag of salt. These yearly predictions are always fun though, they've always got a bit of an Oracle of Delphi character - reading the tea leaves, so to speak.

Besides being pessimistic for the sake of pessimism there's plenty of smoke for a 2022 Switch 4K.

As a side note, the SwOLED is a very nice upgrade from a launch Switch.
 
Kreese said:
I think their first and third party support will be very strong out of the gate. I'm not expecting AAA parity with the other platforms, but the best we've seen from them in modern times.
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The continued absence of GTAVI on the Switch 2 is absolutely mystifying​

 
Timing of the expansion pack subscription is telling, really. One thing which buffers Sony from the risks inherent in a generational transition are significant subscription revenues. Nintendo have fewer subscribers paying less for subscriptions; they have to improve that if they want to buttress their revenue and profit streams as hardware declines. Of course, one advantage they have (versus Sony) are higher first-party software sales and, crucially, they sell vast quantities of software without significant discounting. But a bigger subscription business will be important, whatever the hardware timing Nintendo go with.
 
If this happens I sincerely hope backwards compatible software gets a boost when played on this device. Not looking forward to trying out Xenoblade 3 in 360p 25 fps or whatever in 2023.
 
Leica said:
If this happens I sincerely hope backwards compatible software gets a boost when played on this device. Not looking forward to trying out Xenoblade 3 in 360p 25 fps or whatever in 2023.
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oh my god I didn't even think about xenoblade, you poor weebs

the switch is in a sorry state honestly, at this point everyone I know has serious framerate problems in animal crossing, age of calamity was a mess in 2020, pikmin 3 deluxe doesn't look better than it did on wii u and in some areas looks worse, fucking bowser's fury couldn't hit native

technical problems and limitations in nintendo games are only going to get worse, and per this analyst we have a long road ahead of us
 
I know the hybrid is the selling point of the Switch. But I’d LOVE to see them do a three pronged approach next gen.

Switch 2 Lite - Smaller and handheld only.
Switch 2 - Hybrid console that plays the games with the same performance on tv as in handheld with a little bit of resolution bump (just like we have now)
Switch 2 TV - a TV only device that plays the same games but at 4k and a higher framerate.

It’ll never happen because people will say a Switch that isn’t handheld is pointless, but I just want some way to enjoy their games at the highest resolution / framerate.
 
Hmmm, 2022 just started. I was hoping for a March 2023 release for their next system as it will be the six year mark. 2024 is like too far :(
 
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efyu_lemonardo said:
Don't know if I'd call people in lockdown looking for activities to get their minds off of a global pandemic a much more stable market. Those same people may have very different priorities in a few years, once the world opens back up and the full economic impact of all that decreased productivity is more evident in their wallets. Add to that supply constraints and uncertainties which could continue to have significant effects on production pipelines and product prices, and the usual software uncertainties, and I think you can see it's not strictly only up to Nintendo to not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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I mean, this is a different argument altogether. I was referring to the consumers buying Switch's being more of the traditional gaming crowd, which was a thing before Covid ever hit.

AngryAlchemist said:

The continued absence of GTAVI on the Switch 2 is absolutely mystifying​

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Right. As Switch's third party support continues to gain traction, we are seeing remasters from every franchise under the sun hitting the platform, and amidst this GTAV's absence remains mystifying.
 
Raccoon said:
oh my god I didn't even think about xenoblade, you poor weebs

the switch is in a sorry state honestly, at this point everyone I know has serious framerate problems in animal crossing, age of calamity was a mess in 2020, pikmin 3 deluxe doesn't look better than it did on wii u and in some areas looks worse, fucking bowser's fury couldn't hit native

technical problems and limitations in nintendo games are only going to get worse, and per this analyst we have a long road ahead of us
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As a gamer, this is what I fear the most. Performance and visual quality, which was never great to begin with, is only going to get worse over the next few years. Ruining my eyes by squinting at a blurry image held up close to my face is not my idea of a good time.

Games like Xenoblade 2 and Yoshi's Crafted World were what got the whole Switch Pro conversation started in the first place. Personally, I just cannot play them in their current state. To say nothing of many 3rd party releases.
 
efyu_lemonardo said:
As a gamer, this is what I fear the most. Performance and visual quality, which was never great to begin with, is only going to get worse over the next few years. Ruining my eyes by squinting at a blurry image held up close to my face is not my idea of a good time.

Games like Xenoblade 2 and Yoshi's Crafted World were what got the whole Switch Pro conversation started in the first place. Personally, I just cannot play them in their current state.
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reading "the switch still has potential in terms of sales" on a gamer forum makes me feel like my brain is melting
 
Good, gives Atlus time to get Shin Megami Tensei VI* ready for launch.

(*Concept trailer)

Raccoon said:
reading "the switch still has potential in terms of sales" on a gamer forum makes me feel like my brain is melting
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Eh its a discussion forum, entertainment. People have fun discussing even business and management aspects of a company they are in some form a supporter (or even critic) of and its all good.
At the end of the day, we are all spit-balling over here about videogames instead of ... playing video games :p (my backlog casts a wistful glance at me)
 
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manfromthedam said:
Analysts predict based on available data and will err on the side of caution. I'd take this with a bag of salt. These yearly predictions are always fun though, they've always got a bit of an Oracle of Delphi character - reading the tea leaves, so to speak.

Besides being pessimistic for the sake of pessimism there's plenty of smoke for a 2022 Switch 4K.

As a side note, the SwOLED is a very nice upgrade from a launch Switch.
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Analysts err on the side of caution for Switch because Nintendo IS often conservative and cautious. There was "plenty of smoke" for Switch PRO for the last 2-3 years, but it never really ended up materializing. The smoke was actually just dust.

However, it is a fact that global supply chains are struggling, and Nintendo can't magically fix that.
 
KCannon said:
Analysts err on the side of caution for Switch because Nintendo IS often conservative and cautious. There was "plenty of smoke" for Switch PRO for the last 2-3 years, but it never really ended up materializing. The smoke was actually just dust.

However, it is a fact that global supply chains are struggling, and Nintendo can't magically fix that.
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It kinda did materialize as the Mariko Switch, but Nintendo simply didn't use the extra power to make it a pro, they just increased the battery life. It's understandable that leakers and their sources would sometimes interpret a "die shrink with better potential" as the advent of a more powerful Switch, but in the end Nintendo did what they did. This time it's about a completely different SoC, so whenever Nintendo releases a device with it, there is no chance of it being as powerful as the current Switch, but far above it.
 
KCannon said:
There was "plenty of smoke" for Switch PRO for the last 2-3 years, but it never really ended up materializing. The smoke was actually just dust.
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This is extremely reductive and actually partially outright false.

  • 2018: Rumors of a more powerful Switch in development, possibly for 2019
  • 2019: Rumors of that same more powerful Switch releasing that year, turned out to be the Mariko v2 Switch which indeed is a more powerful chip but Nintendo chose not to actually use that power (bafflingly, some might say)
  • 2020: Zero credible rumors about an enhanced Switch until late in the year, at which point 2021-2022 was the discussed time frame for release
  • 2021: pre-march, all rumors pointed to 2022 for a new Switch, from a number of sources. March comes and Bloomberg conflates the OLED model with the new Switch and everyone else defers to their reporting. After OLED model is announced in July all rumors still suggest 2022, with early 2023 now being discussed as a contingency

So if you actually follow the discussions analytically there are only ever two products being discussed- the Mariko Switch which does indeed exist but was not positioned in the way some expected, and the Dane Switch, the status of which is still unknown.
 
Skittzo said:
This is extremely reductive and actually partially outright false.

  • 2018: Rumors of a more powerful Switch in development, possibly for 2019
  • 2019: Rumors of that same more powerful Switch releasing that year, turned out to be the Mariko v2 Switch which indeed is a more powerful chip but Nintendo chose not to actually use that power (bafflingly, some might say)
  • 2020: Zero credible rumors about an enhanced Switch until late in the year, at which point 2021-2022 was the discussed time frame for release
  • 2021: pre-march, all rumors pointed to 2022 for a new Switch, from a number of sources. March comes and Bloomberg conflates the OLED model with the new Switch and everyone else defers to their reporting. After OLED model is announced in July all rumors still suggest 2022, with early 2023 now being discussed as a contingency

So if you actually follow the discussions analytically there are only ever two products being discussed- the Mariko Switch which does indeed exist but was not positioned in the way some expected, and the Dane Switch, the status of which is still unknown.
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But in the end, the best case scenario has never really materialized.

Like, Dane Switch likely exists. That much has enough evidence (just like the Lite or the OLED). But there's no guarantee whatsoever that it's going to happen soon. Nintendo has the option of riding the current waves and release it later. We know they do this (Switch in fact was such a case due to lack of ready launch software).
 
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KCannon said:
But in the end, the best case scenario has never really materialized.

Like, Dane Switch likely exists. That much has enough evidence (just like the Lite or the OLED). But there's no guarantee whatsoever that it's going to happen soon.
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There's no guarantee's it's going to happen at all. Even if it's real, Nintendo has shelved plenty of proposed hardware.
 
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KCannon said:
But in the end, the best case scenario has never really materialized.

Like, Dane Switch likely exists. That much has enough evidence (just like the Lite or the OLED). But there's no guarantee whatsoever that it's going to happen soon.
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We're also only 1 week into 2022 and really shouldn't outright dismiss the possibility that new hardware from Nintendo happens this year.
 
MisterSpo said:
We're also only 1 week into 2022 and really shouldn't outright dismiss the possibility that new hardware from Nintendo happens this year.
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Me dismissing it

ObZQ.gif
 
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