• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Furukawa Speaks! We discuss the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Successor and our June Direct Predictions on the new episode of the Famiboards Discussion Club! Check it out here!

Sales Data Ampere Analysis forecasts the next Switch for late 2024 ; return on predictions made last year

Skittzo said:
There must be a reason none of the big three ever plan to launch in Q1 though. You're getting big sales at launch but that's at the expense of sales in the previous quarter. It just doesn't seem like something anyone would intend for.

Can't argue with #4 though.
Click to expand...
Do we know for sure that the 3DS wasn't originally a Q1 launch?
 
This falls in line with my predictions and seems perfectly reasonable given Switch's still exceedingly high hardware and software sales, not to mention they will avoid some of the worst years of the chip shortages.
 
Yeah, 2024 seems like a good bet on when the successor will release. Maybe late 2023. But no sooner.

Really interested to see Nintendo’s fiscal report so we have more vague words to dissect.
 
phyl0x said:
Yep, my prediction: there will be a Gold colored/zelda themed OLED switch this holiday season to go with BOTW2. Thats gonna be the "hardware" this year.
Click to expand...
As someone who has been holding out for a gold-decorated Pro/2/whatevs to launch with Zelda, this would have me feeling torn.

I had a feeling when the OLED launched that its chassis is what will house the succ (and that new chassis/screens being built while Dane is still not taped out might be the reason for the OLED existing at all), and if that's the case then I wonder if the covers, docks, and joycon will be swappable.. 🤔
 
0
They just need to make sure they’re ready when they move on. Wii U came in way too late and it was still nowhere near ready when it finally came. Nintendo doesn’t have the DS line to back them up if they screw up another console release.
 
Skipper93653 said:
Bowser's Fury was an effort mainly done by NST, not EPD8.
Click to expand...
Since when are NST back to making games of Bowser's Fury's caliber? I thought they were a shell of their former selves, at best good for QA and small games like the Mario vs. DK minis series.
 
Scrawnton said:
They just need to make sure they’re ready when they move on. Wii U came in way too late and it was still nowhere near ready when it finally came. Nintendo doesn’t have the DS line to back them up if they screw up another console release.
Click to expand...
By that same token they don't have the DS line sucking up game development resources.
 
0
efyu_lemonardo said:
Since when are NST back to making games of Bowser's Fury's caliber? I thought they were a shell of their former selves, at best good for QA and small games like the Mario vs. DK minis series.
Click to expand...

NST ported SM3DW in its entirety, also worked on the online. NST also helped on BF, we don't know to what extent but they were involved in making it.
 
Hosermess said:
289555.jpg

This is what I picture when I see predictions for a newer Switch that are farther and farther away.
Click to expand...
Also this one:

45127.jpg

THEN WE'LL HAVE THE USUAL CONSOLE SALES LULL, BUT, HEY, WE'RE MAKING ENOUGH MONEY, RIGHT?
 
0
i think its time to move on from the botw2 is a switch pro/2 launch game. really doesnt seem like its gonna be, Nintendo is planning it for this year and there'd be more concrete evidence of a new revision/generation coming if it was this year; we've always known in the beginning of the year that something was coming each time a hardware revision has come out so far (even if the details were wrong). So if botw2 is coming this year and a new hardware refresh isn't....i think that also means its not gonna be spring 2023...or thats an easy call to delay zelda and launch together....so its gotta be further out than Nintendo feels its worth delaying zelda for. fall 2023 or later? thats kinda where im at now. the current one is selling like hotcakes yet...as a money making company they have no need to move on so fast, even if we want them to.
 
I mostly stopped playing my Switch lately. Especially after playing through Monster Hunter Stories 2 in below 720p/20fps on my 65' 4K OLED. I just moved onto PS5/XSX mostly now. Real shame Nintendo is hellbent on keeping their tech so many generations behind. We may be playing PS5 Pro and the Xbox equivalent before we get any new Switch hardware.
 
Honestly I think late 2024 is entirely off the table. Their revenue in CY 2023 and the first half of 2024 would take way too big of a hit. If nothing else they're very consistent about wanting to avoid those big revenue dips that come with console cycles.

I don't think H1 2024 is off the table but again I don't think they have ever actually planned to launch a console in Q1. Why start now?

Late 2023 seems possible but the lineup is a bit of a question mark. 2023 would be 2 years from the OLED launch and they've consistently had new hardware out every 2 years probably for well over a decade or two.

Early 2023 is also possible but again I don't think they plan to launch early in any year.

Late 2022 I see as the likeliest specifically because every single rumor about it suggests that time frame and it lines up nicely with the software lineup.
 
phyl0x said:
i think its time to move on from the botw2 is a switch pro/2 launch game. really doesnt seem like its gonna be, Nintendo is planning it for this year and there'd be more concrete evidence of a new revision/generation coming if it was this year; we've always known in the beginning of the year that something was coming each time a hardware revision has come out so far (even if the details were wrong). So if botw2 is coming this year and a new hardware refresh isn't....i think that also means its not gonna be spring 2023...or thats an easy call to delay zelda and launch together....so its gotta be further out than Nintendo feels its worth delaying zelda for. fall 2023 or later? thats kinda where im at now. the current one is selling like hotcakes yet...as a money making company they have no need to move on so fast, even if we want them to.
Click to expand...
Just have BOTW2 enhanced with a DLC expansion at the Switch 2 launch with MK9 and some other huge property and it will be sold out for years. BOTW was great to the to sell the Switch concept when it launched but the Switch concept has already been sold. BOTW 2 this holiday please.
 
0
Must be nice to have your word be taken so seriously without ever having to back it up. Nate should be a little jealous I think.

I did search for if he or his company had ever provided reasoning for why they think that, but no luck so far. The earliest reference I could find was this article from July 2021.

www.gamesindustry.biz

Switch OLED vs Steam Deck: The (non) battle of the new handhelds

Hardware announcements are few and far between, yet we've seen two major stories emerge over the course of less than tw…
www.gamesindustry.biz www.gamesindustry.biz

I think Nintendo will wait to introduce more power in its next-generation console which I currently expect to launch at the end of 2024.
Click to expand...
 
If the next Switch was due in less than twelve months there would be much, much more buzz than some rumors. There is no new Switch model this year.

You're just never going to convince me that Nintendo's most successful system in over a decade will have a shorter lifespan than the Wii, an HD console at that. Q4 2023 at the earliest is my stance.
 
Mekanos said:
If the next Switch was due in less than twelve months there would be much, much more buzz than some rumors. There is no new Switch model this year.

You're just never going to convince me that Nintendo's most successful system in over a decade will have a shorter lifespan than the Wii, an HD console at that. Q4 2023 at the earliest is my stance.
Click to expand...
It's been a while, but as I recall, the first big rumors about even just the vendor of Switch's SoC wasn't until like 10 months before launch. And that's with the launch getting delayed a bit and putting out the NX codename super early for strategic reasons.

Also, a console's death and the launch of its successor are two separate events. Especially when that console is a Nintendo handheld.
 
0
Raccoon said:
what kind of buzz would you expect?
Click to expand...
We'd be having a lot more sources and speculation than something from Denmark, I can tell you that.

Speaking somewhat more seriously, I doubt Nintendo would be saying things like "Switch is in its middle phase" back in November if the successor was out in 12 months - and I know how Nintendo PR speak goes, DS being third pillar, etc. but when combined with the general life cycle of HD consoles and how Nintendo literally can't stock enough Switches to sell, Nintendo just having released the OLED model, nothing outside of some byzantine rumors about supply chain tech really actually signals that Santa is delivering a Switch successor this year. Again, we're talking on the shelves before Black Friday, 10 months from now. You can pull up all kinds of rumors and Bloomberg reports but I simply just don't believe it until I see Nintendo announce it themselves. What company in history has ever released a model revision like the OLED only one year before its bonafide successor?

The only reason to seriously entertain the idea is if Nintendo is abandoning traditional console upgrades and going for more of an Apple-like mode of model upgrades being more blurred and less delineated, but I personally don't believe that is going to be happening.
 
Last edited:
Mekanos said:
The only reason to seriously entertain the idea is if Nintendo is abandoning traditional console upgrades and going for more of an Apple-like mode of model upgrades being more blurred and less delineated, but I personally don't believe that is going to be happening.
Click to expand...
I think is how a lot of people (@Skittzo in particular) reconcile the rumors with reality
 
Kano said:
I think it's also interesting that not even Serkan Toto believes a new model is coming this year, after having predicted a Switch Pro every year since 2019 lol.
Click to expand...
holy fuck lmao

the dream really is dead huh
 
0
Kano said:
I think it's also interesting that not even Serkan Toto believes a new model is coming this year, after having predicted a Switch Pro every year since 2019 lol.
Click to expand...
His streak of wrong predictions on that front will continue!
 
Mekanos said:
We'd be having a lot more sources and speculation than something from Denmark, I can tell you that.

Speaking somewhat more seriously, I doubt Nintendo would be saying things like "Switch is in its middle phase" back in November if the successor was out in 12 months - and I know how Nintendo PR speak goes, DS being third pillar, etc. but when combined with the general life cycle of HD consoles and how Nintendo literally can't stock enough Switches to sell, Nintendo just having released the OLED model, nothing outside of some byzantine rumors about supply chain tech really actually signals that Santa is delivering a Switch successor this year. Again, we're talking on the shelves before Black Friday, 10 months from now. You can pull up all kinds of rumors and Bloomberg reports but I simply just don't believe it until I see Nintendo announce it themselves. What company in history has ever released a model revision like the OLED only one year before its bonafide successor?

The only reason to seriously entertain the idea is if Nintendo is abandoning traditional console upgrades and going for more of an Apple-like mode of model upgrades being more blurred and less delineated, but I personally don't believe that is going to be happening.
Click to expand...
Generations having less of a hard dividing line is kind of a general trend in consoles, and there's no reason to think Nintendo is going to be exempt from that, especially when they've been talking about wanting to try to retain their audience better between systems. This is a same company that didn't stop publishing 3DS games until 2019 and probably would have kept it up longer if sales didn't crater (something which is probably less likely to happen if all the games are also natively playable on the new hardware).
 
0
I'm not yearning for a new Switch anytime soon. There is tons of untapped potential in the system from a sales and games perspective, with plenty of new releases in the upcoming year. I think if a new next-generation Switch was coming out in 2022, some of Nintendo's projects that are currently announced for the Switch probably would have been later releases exclusive to the Switch 2. I mean, there's absolutely some titles that absolutely could have skipped the original system.

Late 2024 seems a ways off, but honestly 2024 always seemed like a fairly likely launch year for a new system, with 2023 kind of acting like the Switch's swansong.
 
Skittzo said:
Honestly I think late 2024 is entirely off the table. Their revenue in CY 2023 and the first half of 2024 would take way too big of a hit. If nothing else they're very consistent about wanting to avoid those big revenue dips that come with console cycles.

I don't think H1 2024 is off the table but again I don't think they have ever actually planned to launch a console in Q1. Why start now?

Late 2023 seems possible but the lineup is a bit of a question mark. 2023 would be 2 years from the OLED launch and they've consistently had new hardware out every 2 years probably for well over a decade or two.

Early 2023 is also possible but again I don't think they plan to launch early in any year.

Late 2022 I see as the likeliest specifically because every single rumor about it suggests that time frame and it lines up nicely with the software lineup.
Click to expand...

?

The Switch launched March 2017
 
candidly I do not want to stick around in the nintendo enthusiast community if this turns out to be the case

if zelda 2 comes out with no switch pro in sight things will get ugly
 
Raccoon said:
candidly I do not want to stick around in the nintendo enthusiast community if this turns out to be the case

if zelda 2 comes out with no switch pro in sight things will get ugly
Click to expand...
Really? I always thought Nintendo's fanbase was generally comprised of a games over graphics mentalitiy... although fair enough if you want both. Nintendo themselves are usually masterful at making the most out their hardware. Dread is a recent example of that. Also keep in mind that BOTW was a cross gen Wii U game and that BOTW 2 should be seeing gains based off the fact alone.

I'm pretty sure BOTW 2 will be coming out without new hardware in sight, and I'm also excited to see an upgraded BOTW2 with the new hardware... particularly if comes with some batshit insane side game content like Bowser's Fury did with Mario 3D World.

That could be absolutely wild and a route I hope they pursue instead of traditional dlc. Maybe some of that scrapped BOTW Alien side content.


421769-Aliensheader1k.jpg
 
0
Raccoon said:
candidly I do not want to stick around in the nintendo enthusiast community if this turns out to be the case

if zelda 2 comes out with no switch pro in sight things will get ugly
Click to expand...

If it happens I think more realistically in this forum we’ll be very disappointed and then rationalize it and move on.

I may very well rationalize it not happening sooner than later. I like a hype train as much as the next person, but this one is tiring me out.
 
Raccoon said:
candidly I do not want to stick around in the nintendo enthusiast community if this turns out to be the case

if zelda 2 comes out with no switch pro in sight things will get ugly
Click to expand...
if botw2 blowout comes and we have tons of new info about the game and the conversation is STILL dominated by pro stuff speculation and complaints I would be pretty close to giving up on enthusiast forums lol
 
I've been dreaming about a true next gen leap for Nintendo games for years, as soon as the Wii U novelty and seeing their first HD games wore off. Late 2024 feels like torture but hey it would be one hell of a leap. The more you wait, the bigger it'll be presumably.

As for the Switch being long in the tooth, I think I felt it for the first time when the Bayonetta ports came out at 720p, so that was early 2018. The Switch's power can't hurt me anymore.
 
0
Phendrift said:
if botw2 blowout comes and we have tons of new info about the game and the conversation is STILL dominated by pro stuff speculation and complaints I would be pretty close to giving up on enthusiast forums lol
Click to expand...
It gets a pass in threads like this because it's on topic but otherwise it's pretty annoying, especially being a former member at cesspool forums that can't discuss a single Switch game without it being derailed by graphics and performance shit posting... even when the games in question look great like Dread. (At these other forums) I think there is a certain jealousy from fanboys regarding Nintendo's success so they opt for low hanging fruit every time. Even back in 2017 when the Switch was great for mobile hardware it was still getting unfavourably compared to giant box stationary consoles which I found ridiculous. Hell, I even found the lower review scores ridiculous. The Switch version has a lower frame rate and resolution therefore the score is lower... shouldn't points be awarded for the ability to take games on the go or at the very least score games relative to the hardware they're on?

Obviously on this forum most of the posters are real Nintendo fans, and yes... the hardware quality of what is essentially a 2017 handheld can't possibly compete with 2020 $500 Microwave sized boxes, so I can clearly see the reason why people are uptight about new hardware... particularly if they play the games on televisions where the graphical flaws are magnified. Having said all that, I'm personally impressed to see how many Switch games still hold their own graphically which is testament to scalability of relatively modern hardware and diminishing returns.

Personally I find far too much importance is placed on graphics in general, but I guess everyone is different and some are more bothered by things that I'm not. Don't get me wrong, playing games with optimal performance and graphics is great, but for me all of that melts into the background 10 minutes into the game and what keeps me coming back is the gameplay.
 
I'd play all my consoles portably if I could, just saying.

I wouldn't worry much about how the Nintendo community reacts to no Pro this year; by all accounts it's going to be a very stacked slate this year, and for all we know by early 2023 the successor is announced. I think it's just that there's been these carrot stick rumors of a Pro for years and now fans are either sick of feeling led on or sick of hearing about it in general. If it wasn't for that it wouldn't be such a commonly discussed topic.
 
Kano said:
I think it's also interesting that not even Serkan Toto believes a new model is coming this year, after having predicted a Switch Pro every year since 2019 lol.
Click to expand...
So that means it's happening this year for sure
 
0
Hosermess said:
Must be nice to have your word be taken so seriously without ever having to back it up. Nate should be a little jealous I think.

I did search for if he or his company had ever provided reasoning for why they think that, but no luck so far. The earliest reference I could find was this article from July 2021.

www.gamesindustry.biz

Switch OLED vs Steam Deck: The (non) battle of the new handhelds

Hardware announcements are few and far between, yet we've seen two major stories emerge over the course of less than tw…
www.gamesindustry.biz www.gamesindustry.biz
Click to expand...

It's a prediction, they don't have to justify anything.
 
0
The big question is what will Nintendo do during 2023 and 2024 assuming Switch sales slow down significantly over that period? (15 million during 2023 and 10 million during 2024 appear to be reasonable ballpark estimates at this time).

Will they just take the losses or are they expecting to increase their revenue from software and other sources of income (such as parks and films)?

Do they perhaps have a late-gen killer-app in development, like Pokemon was for the original Gameboy?

As a gamer I'd obviously much rather have an upgraded switch in my hands in Q1 2023 than Q4 2024, but if this is the direction Nintendo have chosen, I'm sure they have a business plan to not fall off the map, in terms of brand awareness and revenue.
 
efyu_lemonardo said:
The big question is what will Nintendo do during 2023 and 2024 assuming Switch sales slow down significantly over that period? (15 million during 2023 and 10 million during 2024 appear to be reasonable ballpark estimates at this time).

Will they just take the losses or are they expecting to increase their revenue from software and other sources of income (such as parks and films)?

Do they perhaps have a late-gen killer-app in development, like Pokemon was for the original Gameboy?

As a gamer I'd obviously much rather have an upgraded switch in my hands in Q1 2023 than Q4 2024, but if this is the direction Nintendo have chosen, I'm sure they have a business plan to not fall off the map, in terms of brand awareness and revenue.
Click to expand...
Who releases a gaming platform and doesn't have revenue slide towards the later years of the platforms life? This has literally never happened before.

They'll still be making money hand over fist when it happens and coming off one of the highest grossing generations in their company history even if they were to extend the next console to 2025.

Profit has always been more important to Nintendo (and most companies) than revenue anyway, and they'll be making a premium on the aging Switch hardware and massive roster of evergreens the Switch has accumulated that never drop in price. They certainly won't fall off the map with such a strong presence in software and mindshare. These games don't stop selling and they're just adding new ones to the armada with nearly every new release.
 
Last edited:
Meelow said:
?

The Switch launched March 2017
Click to expand...
But it was internally delayed from holiday 2016. Just like the 3DS launch was delayed from holiday 2010 to March 2011.

My point isn't that it can't launch in March, just that they have never actually intended for a console to launch in March so there's no reason to expect they'd intend to do so now. It could certainly be delayed to March, just like the Switch and 3DS.
 
0
efyu_lemonardo said:
The big question is what will Nintendo do during 2023 and 2024 assuming Switch sales slow down significantly over that period? (15 million during 2023 and 10 million during 2024 appear to be reasonable ballpark estimates at this time).

Will they just take the losses or are they expecting to increase their revenue from software and other sources of income (such as parks and films)?

Do they perhaps have a late-gen killer-app in development, like Pokemon was for the original Gameboy?

As a gamer I'd obviously much rather have an upgraded switch in my hands in Q1 2023 than Q4 2024, but if this is the direction Nintendo have chosen, I'm sure they have a business plan to not fall off the map, in terms of brand awareness and revenue.
Click to expand...
For now we'd have to assume that they have the same general plan for 2023 as they do for 2022-- offset the dip in hardware sales with revenue from software and their other ventures. Regardless, if the Switch does 15 million units in its sixth year and 10 million in its seventh, that would be nothing to scoff at.
 
Kreese said:
Who releases a gaming platform and doesn't have revenue slide towards the later years of the platforms life? This has literally never happened before.

They'll still be making money hand over fist when it happens and coming off one of the highest grossing generations in their company history even if they were to extend the next console to 2025.

Profit has always been more important to Nintendo (and most companies) than revenue anyway, and they'll be making a premium on the aging Switch hardware and massive roster of evergreens the Switch has accumulated that never drop in price. They certainly won't fall off the map with such a strong presence in software and mindshare. These games don't stop selling and they're just adding new ones to the armada with nearly every new release.
Click to expand...
It's not a matter of "if" but "how much" will revenue slide. And how much will such a slide affect mindshare. All I'm trying to say, admittedly not accurately enough, is that there could be a trade-off between revenue profit and mindshare. You could make the case for the latter being more important to launching a new system.
And since this is Nintendo's only hardware for the first time since the 80s, they may have a strong desire to keep it in people's awareness, which they could achieve with price cuts on hardware and software, stronger marketing, or by launching a late-gen killer-app, depending on what happens over the next three years.

Ideally, they probably would have wanted to keep selling switches at a reduced price for a good while after the successor launches, but current manufacturing constraints probably rule out that possibility.

Edit: changed revenue to profit, an important distinction!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.


Back
Top Bottom