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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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DDark said:
Oh nice. Over here we call that “Wisconsin.”
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🍻

As a fellow Wisconsinite, I shall drink to that!
 
D36 said:
If we're done making each other feel old, I have a question. How many of us think that summer is a viable time to release the Switch 2, compared to other times of the year? I remember last year, summer wasn't too popular of a pick in regards to a potential release date. Have stances change since then? I'm just curious what some of you think.
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If it were Summer, I can humor a September launch at the earliest. Any sooner and you'd potentially face too little of a marketing cycle for the console. I definitely think it'll launch before November. They'll want the opportunity to have sorted supply for the holiday period.
 
If there is one plus to having a summer release, it's that there's a chance it could launch on my birthday, which is on a Friday this year.
 
RailWays said:
If it were Summer, I can humor a September launch at the earliest. Any sooner and you'd potentially face too little of a marketing cycle for the console.
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If it's being revealed in March, I'd say that that's ample time to advertise it, even if it launches in June.
 
RailWays said:
If it were Summer, I can humor a September launch at the earliest. Any sooner and you'd potentially face too little of a marketing cycle for the console. I definitely think it'll launch before November. They'll want the opportunity to have sorted supply for the holiday period.
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Hasn't this already been discussed? The Nintendo Switch got 2 months of real marketing, while revisions and versions like Series S, New 3DS, etc. got one or two months.

September is also not "Early Summer", which is the information we're going off, as far as I know nobody has reported summer without the qualifier "early". I've really only seen "earlier if possible" and "early summer"
 
Concernt said:
May especially, get the kids a big new handheld for the back of the car during the summer holidays? Or a reward for their report card? Or people spending their tax return? June works too, of course, but May has most of the benefits I've argued for March while also giving them more time to prepare.
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Speaking of this, if y'all wanna feel old, I got DSi as a reward for an elementary school report card.
 
Concernt said:
Hasn't this already been discussed? The Nintendo Switch got 2 months of real marketing, while revisions and versions like Series S, New 3DS, etc. got one or two months.

September is also not "Early Summer", which is the information we're going off, as far as I know nobody has reported summer without the qualifier "early". I've really only seen "earlier if possible" and "early summer"
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this early summer semantics garbage is getting old lol.
 
chocolate_supra said:
That's how I got my SNES 🤣
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I got my SNES when the all stars bundle came out.

It was iirc 180 or 150 CAD at Zellers with like a 20 dollar rebate. I bought it with my own money for Xmas that year. Walked it all the way home from the store (a 50 minute walk)

To this day I have my SNES box with a cut out where the upc code was for the rebate.
 
Concernt said:
Hasn't this already been discussed? The Nintendo Switch got 2 months of real marketing, while revisions and versions like Series S, New 3DS, etc. got one or two months.

September is also not "Early Summer", which is the information we're going off, as far as I know nobody has reported summer without the qualifier "early". I've really only seen "earlier if possible" and "early summer"
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By "early" I meant the earliest time I'd think it'd launch in the summer window. Point taken about the Switch's quick reveal to launch cycle though. Considering they aren't coming off a console like the WiiU I could potentially see them opting to take more time.
 
VagrantValmar said:
Imagine being from a Caribbean country where we don't even have seasons.
All this seasons talk is literally incomprehensible to me. I hate it when companies use it as release windows instead of just saying Q3 or whatever
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Oh that's a good point, I think maybe Q2 would be the right thing to say for my view.
 
RailWays said:
By "early" I meant the earliest time I'd think it'd launch in the summer window. Point taken about the Switch's quick reveal to launch cycle though. Considering they aren't coming off a console like the WiiU I could potentially see them opting to take more time.
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I'm of the opposite opinion on this. The Wii U had a huge wind up to a wet fart, and the Switch proved success with a short cycle, even revisions with 2 month marketing periods sold out day one. They don't need to prove anything this time, they've proven a short cycle works, why mess with success?
 
I just don’t feel an early summer launch (July? August?) guys sorry.

But if we are really getting a partner showcase and last Switch 1 games (before Switch 2 launch) are Paper Mario and LM2 remasters for like may and june (+ a metroid prime 2/3 remasters shadowdropped in April)

+ Switch 1 marketing cycle from its first teaser to launch was 4 months and half. Announcement at mid March and launch late July - early August is also 4/5 months. It can be a pre Obon for japanese markets and have a soft launch month but with important third party titles ready like Madden (for US market lol).

Well then maybe….

But my brain still thinks of late September/early October period like previous Switch 1 revisions.
 
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Concernt said:
I'm of the opposite opinion on this. The Wii U had a huge wind up to a wet fart, and the Switch proved success with a short cycle, even revisions with 2 month marketing periods sold out day one. They don't need to prove anything this time, they've proven a short cycle works, why mess with success?
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I guess the main question is how far along the manufacturing of the console is. Was the reveal trailer in October 2016 the start of full manufacturing for the Switch, or was it after the January event ahead of the March launch?
 
Switch first trailer: 20 October 2016
Switch release: 3 March 2017
4 months and a half

Switch Lite trailer: 10 July 2019
Switch Lite release: 20 September 2019
2 months

Switch OLED trailer: 6 July 2021
Switch OLED release: 8 October 2021
3 months

I think they can totally do a quick rollout if we are to follow all Switch models. If Nate heard rumblings about March back in last summer, it was most likely partners needing to have their games ready to be shown at a March blowout. I don't think people were already whispering back then that Nintendo was going to drop a twit in March. If many people heard something it's because there were many actors involved, as in a big presentation. This time around they don't really need to explain what a Switch is, they only need to underline that this is a new thing and show games that obviously couldn't be played in the OG Switch.
 
RailWays said:
I guess the main question is how far along the manufacturing of the console is. Was the reveal trailer in October 2016 the start of full manufacturing for the Switch, or was it after the January event?
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Manufacturing started in October 2016.

But to add some context, SWOLED only had 3 months worth of mass production (announced July 2021, around the same time mass production began, released October 2021)
 
My original spider-sense prediction hasn’t changed despite comments from some quarters.

Reveal - March-June

Games blowout - June

Direct/pre launch show - September

Release - September-November

Obviously I’d like to own Switch Zwei even sooner but I just don’t see any stars aligning in such a way as it stands today.
 
Concernt said:
why mess with success?
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Because sometimes you get Nintendo DS?

For the record, I agree with you. Given that Nintendo has had success with short cycles, it’d be prudent to do so again. At the same time, Nintendo has zagged enough times especially into it’s (currently) best selling hardware ever, it’s hard to tell what it’ll do.
 
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maniacmaison said:
Switch first trailer: 20 October 2016
Switch release: 3 March 2017
4 months and a half

Switch Lite trailer: 10 July 2019
Switch Lite release: 20 September 2019
2 months

Switch OLED trailer: 6 July 2021
Switch OLED release: 8 October 2021
3 months

I think they can totally do a quick rollout if we are to follow all Switch models. If Nate heard rumblings about March back in last summer, it was most likely partners needing to have their games ready to be shown at a March blowout. I don't think people were already whispering back then that Nintendo was going to drop a twit in March. If many people heard something it's because there were many actors involved, as in a big presentation. This time around they don't really need to explain what a Switch is, they only need to underline that this is a new thing and show games that obviously couldn't be played in the OG Switch.
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The next system isn’t another Switch model to my understanding and is a completely new next generation system which might require a huge marketing push for the system and software over a longer period of time.

Switch 1 was a different situation where Nintendo needed a new system out asap after the Wii U failure so a shorter turn around was always expected.
 
RailWays said:
I guess the main question is how far along the manufacturing of the console is. Was the reveal trailer in October 2016 the start of full manufacturing for the Switch, or was it after the January event ahead of the March launch?
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Soon after the October reveal, but nowadays they have multiple examples of going from reveal to release for revisions (New 3DS, Lite and OLED), including tight manufacturing timelines. They also almost certainly have far MORE factory lines this time than they did in 2016, while we can't ignore that they could have already started or be about to begin, which would give them some time to built up stock ahead of launch.
 
YolkFolk said:
The next system isn’t another Switch model to my understanding and is a completely new next generation system which might require a huge marketing push for the system and software over a longer period of time.
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Like... Nintendo's Switch's January and February 2017?

It's simply not true to suggest they were actively marketing in late 2016, it got all of two bits in 2016, so, it was two months of marketing as well.
 
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YolkFolk said:
The next system isn’t another Switch model to my understanding and is a completely new next generation system which might require a huge marketing push for the system and software over a longer period of time.

Switch 1 was a different situation where Nintendo needed a new system out asap after the Wii U failure so a shorter turn around was always expected.
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Well, according to your theory the new generation would need a longer marketing cycle than the original model, which was a revolutionary new concept thas has created a new niche in the market. My theory is that the marketing cycle will be as long as the original one (4 months and a half) or even shorter. The Switch has so much momentum that people are just buying whatever they put out. This is not a Wii to Wii U or Wii U to Switch situation, where there was 0 momentum. They can just announce the new model and people will switch to buying that one, and a big marketing push will make sure in the following months that consumers understand what this is. The first batch of buyers, the early adopters, don't need much explaining. It's the people buying from Black Friday to Christmas that need guidance.

And I mean, if they just call it the Switch 2 and the box looks different, it's going to be a very easy marketing campaign.
 
Concernt said:
Like... Nintendo's Switch's January and February 2016?

It's simply not true to suggest they were actively marketing in late 2016, it got all of two bits in 2016, so, it was two months of marketing as well.
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2017? A completely different situation.

Nintendo needed the Switch out asap. It had already been delayed once before due to software not being ready - the original plan being an E3 2016 reveal and a Q4 2016 launch.

Nintendo are no longer in a desperate position and will market the Switch 2 over the course of 2024 in my view.

As you know, my predictions over the last months on this subject have been extremely accurate thus far although I’d love to be wrong and have an earlier date for 2024 which would be nice for us all.
 
Danny said:
My thinking is that Furukawa has stated that Nintendo wants a short reveal to release window when it comes to releasing their next gen hardware. That means that Nintendo itself has stated that the window will be short this time around, so that could mean anywhere from 3-6 months depending on your definition of a short release window.
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Somebody mentioned it already, but I believe that tidbit referred to the unusual NX announcement that happened what, 18 months before release? We all now that was because of different circumstances so Furukawa was only stating the obvious.

That being said, I definitely can see 6 months to be honest (March to September) but I have a lot more trouble imagining a 2-3 months timeline when this thing doesn't even have an official code name.

I especially find it hard to believe that you could jump directly to full reveal and basically starting preorders without even announcing the existence and/or the name of this brand new console ever before. There must be lots of valid business and marketing reasons if pretty much every other occasion involve a separate announcement first with at most some teasing before the full-blown detail dump.

I read a lot of "but it's an iterative console! You don't need to explain the concept again" against this line of reasoning, but first, we don't know that, do we? There might be some completely new feature or departure from Switch in there.
But more importantly, this is the last thing Nintendo would want to do when presenting its new generation of console for the next 7 years! This is not a revision, you don't want people to think it's just more of the same, you want to think it's the biggest thing ever and they can't live without it, even if technically it's just a Switch on steroids. PS and XBOX generations are as iterative as it gets but they will still pull all the stops when it comes to marketing them as the next big thing.
 
maniacmaison said:
Well, according to your theory the new generation would need a longer marketing cycle than the original model, which was a revolutionary new concept thas has created a new niche in the market. My theory is that the marketing cycle will be as long as the original one (4 months and a half) or even shorter. The Switch has so much momentum that people are just buying whatever they put out. This is not a Wii to Wii U or Wii U to Switch situation, where there was 0 momentum. They can just announce the new model and people will switch to buying that one, and a big marketing push will make sure in the following months that consumers understand what this is. The first batch of buyers, the early adopters, don't need much explaining. It's the people buying from Black Friday to Christmas that need guidance.
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Mentioned twice previously, including the quoted post, but Switch 1 was a desperate situation where they needed the console out asap. Nintendo are now in a much more controlled position and for that reason I see them rolling the marking out over several events in the months to come.

Reveal > blowout > September Direct

Plus hands on events over the summer.

Ps. I want an earlier launch, I just don’t see it happening.
 
darthdiablo said:
I think it's viable, I'm never been sure why the general consensus has been that summer is a bad time to release consoles. Kids are home from school with all the free time, hello?

Also I know it's not the same industry but the big blockbuster movies tend to be released during summer season. But what do I know.
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Doctre81 has been speculating that November and the months leading up it would be a bad time for release because of the US election. For those outside of the states, our election cycles are a little over a year long. As we get closer to the election day more and more ad slots are bought up by various candidates running for election which means fewer opportunities for a Switch 2 ad. And news media is less focused on other things in pop culture like a new console release.
 
Nintendo is in a good spot and can release SNG pretty much any month that they choose. Even though June-August are typically seen as being off the table, does anyone really believe the system wont sell if it were to release one of those months? I am in the camp that believes manufacturing hasn't began yet but will be very soon. I do think Nintendo wants to have a lot of stock available when they do launch and that is why I believe September is a likely month. I would love for it to launch sooner, but with it seems like production hasnt started yet and I do not believe they want to launch 2-3 months later only to have severe shortages.

As others have stated, the marketing cycle is short these days. It doesn't really start until they start doing commercials on TV, and that typically happens a couple months ahead of a systems release. This was true even when consoles were announced years and advance. Switch is a well known and well understood product and the communication with consumers should be pretty straightforward. Switch OLED was announced and released within a few months and still managed to sell out when it released. People often forget that the Switch OLED was hard to find when it first came out, and that was for a revision model with limited improvements over the base model. Information travels faster than ever, no need to spend big marketing dollars for a product that wont be available for sale for many months.

P.S. I turn 40 on March 7th. I feel privileged to have gotten to see gaming evolve over the years and experience these true generational leaps over the years. Experiencing Mario 64 for the first time was mind blowing and that is a hard thing to replicate.
 
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yusufied said:
Doctre81 has been speculating that November and the months leading up it would be a bad time for release because of the US election. For those outside of the states, our election cycles are a little over a year long. As we get closer to the election day more and more ad slots are bought up by various candidates running for election which means fewer opportunities for a Switch 2 ad. And news media is less focused on other things in pop culture like a new console release.
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That's when the world needs the Switch 2 the most, especially if Trump is winning.

But either way it's probably going to be one bad candidate vs a fucking horrible candidate l.
 
I want the Switch 2’a release date to be announced already so we can finally know what timing strategy Nintendo will use for their consoles. Yes, Lite and OLED had a short reveal-release interval, but we have the uncertainty of whether they’ll use this for a full console.

Remember: the sales projections of a console will never be the same for a revision
 
ziggyrivers said:
I want the Switch 2’a release date to be announced already so we can finally know what timing strategy Nintendo will use for their consoles. Yes, Lite and OLED had a short reveal-release interval, but we have the uncertainty of whether they’ll use this for a full console.

Remember: the sales projections of a console will never be the same for a revision
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January to March 2017. 🥴
 
Goodtwin said:
Nintendo is in a good spot and can release SNG pretty much any month that they choose. Even though June-August are typically seen as being off the table, does anyone really believe the system wont sell if it were to release one of those months? I am in the camp that believes manufacturing hasn't began yet but will be very soon. I do think Nintendo wants to have a lot of stock available when they do launch and that is why I believe September is a likely month. I would love for it to launch sooner, but with it seems like production hasnt started yet and I do not believe they want to launch 2-3 months later only to have severe shortages.

As others have stated, the marketing cycle is short these days. It doesn't really start until they start doing commercials on TV, and that typically happens a couple months ahead of a systems release. This was true even when consoles were announced years and advance. Switch is a well known and well understood product and the communication with consumers should be pretty straightforward. Switch OLED was announced and released within a few months and still managed to sell out when it released. People often forget that the Switch OLED was hard to find when it first came out, and that was for a revision model with limited improvements over the base model. Information travels faster than ever, no need to spend big marketing dollars for a product that wont be available for sale for many months.
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Information travels very fast if it's a HOT product, which is what the Switch is. Wii and Wii U were not hot, there was no momentum. Nintendo benefits from doing a quick rollout rather than extending the marketing cycle and hurting sales of the OG Switch. Once the announcement is made, the decline of the OG sales will become stronger unless they do an aggressive price cut.

If the PS5 sold out almost by default, the Switch 2 will do just fine considering how the Switch has done and is still doing.
 
maniacmaison said:
Information travels very fast if it's a HOT product, which is what the Switch is. Wii and Wii U were not hot, there was no momentum. Nintendo benefits from doing a quick rollout rather than extending the marketing cycle and hurting sales of the OG Switch. Once the announcement is made, the decline of the OG will become stronger unless they do an aggressive price cut.

If the PS5 sold out almost by default, the Switch 2 will do just fine considering how the Switch has done and is still doing.
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I’m trying to find the world where the Wii was not considered a hot product w/no momentum.
 


FEX-EMU's recent version demonstrates MHW:iceborne on an NVIDIA Orin (unknown which one specifically) with a Radeon Pro W7500 (weaker than a RX7600). Seems to run at 60fps, but no indication of frametime (although it's x86_64 to arm translation, so it wouldn't paint an accurate picture) or settings.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
I’m trying to find the world where the Wii was not considered a hot product w/no momentum.
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Look at the sales history of both the Wii and the Switch (up until 2021). Wii sales are known for having fallen off of a cliff after an initial explotion. In just 5 years the Switch sold as many consoles as the Wii, and then it kept on selling at a very healthy rate up until now.

The Wii had a lot of early hype and then it died.
The Switch has been a steady seller and has become a new niche in the market in itself.

24106.jpeg
 
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fantomena said:
Are there any words about the vent/fan? My current launch Switch (the only Switch I have) sounds like a plane taking off regardless what I play or do with it.
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I don’t recall hearing about the Switch 2 fan (though this thread moves so fast I could have missed something). Your OG Switch fan may simply need to get replaced. I have a launch Switch as well, and the fan never gets especially loud.

Have you contacted Nintendo customer service about it? It’s out of warranty, but they should still be able to help you out. You can also try local repair shops.
 
The current announcement rumors would tend to imply a summer release is more likely than not. I can't see them drawing the process out longer than 6 months (which itself is 1.5 months longer than the Switch got).
 
D36 said:
If we're done making each other feel old, I have a question. How many of us think that summer is a viable time to release the Switch 2, compared to other times of the year? I remember last year, summer wasn't too popular of a pick in regards to a potential release date. Have stances change since then? I'm just curious what some of you think.
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Never seen a summer release as a problem. The GBA launched in Summer 2001 and did incredibly well.
 
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