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Sales Data Updated sales numbers for Switch titles: Pikmin 4 (2.61M), Tears of the Kingdom (19.50M), and more

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Galgavias said:
Because the rate TOTK needs to reach to outsell BOTW isn't realistic. If you take the results from this financial quarter for instance, TOTK only gained 500K on BOTW. If that rate held then it would take TOTK around 7 years to catch up. There will be fluctuations sure - I'd expect TOTK to have a good holiday season this year for instance - but eventually the rate at which TOTK outsells its predecessor will tighten until any gains it makes on BOTW will be negligible. That's before we consider the impact future Zelda's and consoles will have on their legs.

I've said before and I'll say it again, the only chance TOTK has to become the best selling of the two is if we see an updated version released on the next Nintendo console with significant additional content to give the game's sales a shot in the arm.
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It's too early to make definitive statements on any of this. Like others have pointed out, there was extra stock from last quarter it had to sell before shipping more this quarter. Plus, it hasn't even hit its first holiday yet. And like you say, they could very well release an updated version on Switch 2.

...but they could also do that for BotW (or both together). And BotW continues to sell great. So it's tricky. In the end, neither outcome seems crazy. All we know is this new era of Zelda is far and away the most successful.
 
Galgavias said:
Because the rate TOTK needs to reach to outsell BOTW isn't realistic. If you take the results from this financial quarter for instance, TOTK only gained 500K on BOTW. If that rate held then it would take TOTK around 7 years to catch up. There will be fluctuations sure - I'd expect TOTK to have a good holiday season this year for instance - but eventually the rate at which TOTK outsells its predecessor will tighten until any gains it makes on BOTW will be negligible. That's before we consider the impact future Zelda's and consoles will have on their legs.

I've said before and I'll say it again, the only chance TOTK has to become the best selling of the two is if we see an updated version released on the next Nintendo console with significant additional content to give the game's sales a shot in the arm.
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Your math is already way off because your only point of reference (this quarter) is heavily skewed due to unsold inventory.

Luminoth9090 said:
It sold through 15.7 million of those 18.5 million shipped reported last quarter so there was a gap of 2.8 million between shipped and sold through, that is a lot of unsold inventory leftover from last quarter. So even though they only shipped 990k in Q2 they probably sold far more.
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Great numbers all around, though the real fun begins when the Q3 results come out early next year.
 
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Surprised to see some people down on the Pikmin number. I can see how the Japanese sales skewed the perspective a bit, but isn't it already the highest selling Pikmin game after just 2 months?
 
Yeah, those Zelda numbers seem a bit low considering I feel like I saw people expecting it to be at like 25 million at this point. Roughly 20 million is still very good for a straight sequel that’s on the same console.
 
Starphanluke said:
Surprised to see some people down on the Pikmin number. I can see how the Japanese sales skewed the perspective a bit, but isn't it already the highest selling Pikmin game after just 2 months?
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Some people were expecting a bigger breakout but overall yes, it is the best selling game in the series.
 
Starphanluke said:
It's too early to make definitive statements on any of this. Like others have pointed out, there was extra stock from last quarter it had to sell before shipping more this quarter. Plus, it hasn't even hit its first holiday yet. And like you say, they could very well release an updated version on Switch 2.

...but they could also do that for BotW (or both together). And BotW continues to sell great. So it's tricky. In the end, neither outcome seems crazy. All we know is this new era of Zelda is far and away the most successful.
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Kreese said:
Your math is already way off because your only point of reference (this quarter) is heavily skewed due to unsold inventory.
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I was using this quarter's figures as an example, and I straight up said there will be fluctuations in how it sells. But I'm simply pointing out that the rate TOTK has to outsell BOTW to even come close is massive and extremely unlikely to happen. TOTK will be a lot more frontloaded, and eventually the sales difference will tighten as the legs on both games wear out once the new console is released (at which point we'll likely start to see the insane legs for the likes of Mario Kart and Smash finally fall off as new instalments come out to replace them).

There are two other factors at play. Firstly, BOTW has had seven years of being one of the games people bought with a Switch. You can argue it still is, looking at today's figures. TOTK would basically have to replace BOTW as being the Zelda people buy when they purchase a Switch, and honestly, do you think most people would go for the direct sequel in that instance? Secondly, people aren't accounting for the number of people who did buy BOTW but didn't return for TOTK, be it because they had their fill the first time around or have other games they want to play, or maybe they just straight up disliked it. There's going to be a significant drop off between the two games on that front which TOTK needs to make up for with brand new players, which links back to point one.

Ultimately the conundrum is this: will TOTK attract enough brand new players to supplant BOTW as being the defacto Zelda choice when buying a Switch to replace those players who decided not to return for the sequel, and will it have enough time to do so before a new console and Zelda comes out to steal the spotlight from both games and cause their sales to drop significantly? My answer to that question is a pretty firm no, in my own humble opinion.
 
We should be celebrating Pikmin 4 selling well rather than focusing on TOTK, Splatoon 3, and Engage having no legs IMHO.
 
I think TOTK shoved BOTW chances to surpass Smash. It was crawling slowly to it.

Kreese said:
There are a lot of variables but both titles will just keep on selling. Two evergreens. I just expect TOTK to have the lions share of all sales moving forward as it's the newer and more desirable instalment. The same will hold true next quarter and likely all quarters thereafter. It should eventually pass BOTW as we are years into next gen.
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Imo Totk still needs to prove itself to be an evergreen. It won't be an evergreen just because Botw was and even if it's confirmed as an evergreen it needs to be one as strong as Botw.

My impression is that it seems to be dropping on worldwide physical rankings faster than BOTW, and is already selling less than MK8, which sold 1.5 this quarter.
 
Do you all work for Square? 19+ million isn’t a failure, and it really isn’t that crazy for a direct sequel to have less legs than its predecessor on the same console.

Anyways, Pikmin!
 
balgajo said:
My impression is that it seems to be dropping on worldwide physical rankings faster than BOTW, and is already selling less than MK8, which sold 1.5 this quarter
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I’ll just reiterate, it’s better to wait for the holiday quarter before we talk about TotK legs. It was overshipped last quarter, so there were comparatively fewer units shipped this Q2.

ngpdrew said:
Do you all work for Square? 19+ million isn’t a failure, and it really isn’t that crazy for a direct sequel to have less legs than its predecessor on the same console.
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Expectations for sales of Nintendo games have been overinflated lol.
 
balgajo said:
Imo Totk still needs to prove itself to be an evergreen. It won't be an evergreen just because Botw was and even if it's confirmed as an evergreen it needs to be one as strong as Botw.

My impression is that it seems to be dropping on worldwide physical rankings faster than BOTW, and is already selling less than MK8, which sold 1.5 this quarter.
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There should be no doubt it will be an evergreen even divorced from BOTW. You are correct that it remains to be seen how strong of one but we’ll probably need to go into the new FY before we can see how those are doing.
 
Book_Maker said:
Legs remain to be seen, but Pikmin really is Japan’s Metroid sales wise isn’t it?
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I don’t know, metroid would kill to sell in japan what pikmin 4 has sold in the us. Pikmin 4 is also en route to easily outsell the best selling metroid game next quarter.
 
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Both hardware and software were higher than i expected. Pikmin 4 was a bit short though, it was heavily Japan-centric for it's sales. I was expecting Japan to account for 40% of Pikmin 4's sales but it was 52% (1.36m / 2.61m).

7gUtRtp.jpg
 
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balgajo said:
Imo Totk still needs to prove itself to be an evergreen. It won't be an evergreen just because Botw was and even if it's confirmed as an evergreen it needs to be one as strong as Botw.

My impression is that it seems to be dropping on worldwide physical rankings faster than BOTW, and is already selling less than MK8, which sold 1.5 this quarter.
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I think you can partially blame that on just how many games have released this year, in addition to less "word of mouth" compared to Breath of the Wild. BotW was, in my opinion, a success because of the Switch and the Switch was a success because of BotW. They both helped eachother into selling a lot, with most people whom bought a Switch during the first two years buying it for BotW. TotK isn't that kind of game, and thus needed to be a standout that year. The problem is that 99% of big releases are also up to snuff.

Doesn't help that the Switch is no longer in it's prime. Releasing 7 years into a system's life really damages a game's sales, even if it's a very good game, especially when it's 10 bucks more expensive than other Switch releases.

However, considering it sold 19 million copies within 4 months, I'd still say that's huge despite those factors. People saying it "flopped" are off their rocker. Game did well.
 
Galgavias said:
Because the rate TOTK needs to reach to outsell BOTW isn't realistic. If you take the results from this financial quarter for instance, TOTK only gained 500K on BOTW. If that rate held then it would take TOTK around 7 years to catch up. There will be fluctuations sure - I'd expect TOTK to have a good holiday season this year for instance - but eventually the rate at which TOTK outsells its predecessor will tighten until any gains it makes on BOTW will be negligible. That's before we consider the impact future Zelda's and consoles will have on their legs.

I've said before and I'll say it again, the only chance TOTK has to become the best selling of the two is if we see an updated version released on the next Nintendo console with significant additional content to give the game's sales a shot in the arm.
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Nintendo not doing DLC for Tears of The Kingdom severaly impacted it sales potencial, if Tears of the Kingdom has DLC, it would be at 20/22 milions units now
 
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ngpdrew said:
Do you all work for Square? 19+ million isn’t a failure, and it really isn’t that crazy for a direct sequel to have less legs than its predecessor on the same console.

Anyways, Pikmin!
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Did you not hear, in 6 months you either make it or break it.

Shoutout to the millions of fallen comrades 🫡 Would not be surprise it if reaches 5 mil. Plus there is a "combo" pack coming soon.
 
This whole discussion about whether the very successful sequel will get in front its the very successful prequel

34be3ad445154665d8dfbf8cbaf9a8cc.jpg


More BOTW owners means more people who will pick up the its direct sequel and TOTK being a major seller means more people will want to pick up BOTW to see what all the hype around the series is about. They each boost the other up. TOTK hasn't even been through its first holiday season yet. It's gonna be featured in Nintendo's holiday ads and it will get some "free" marketing come award season.

An interesting thing about first party software in general is that more titles are becoming evergreen. Nintendo titles maintain their relevance meaning the games don't become obsolete once another title in the series releases. Sales of other Mario games aren't going to collapse because Wonder is out. A kid getting a Switch and Wonder over the holiday will go back to play titles like Mario Odyssey, 3D World, and yes, New Super Mario Bros. U. Think of all the choices a relatively new Switch owner has. They got 5 or 6 Mario platformers. 4 Zelda titles. 3 Kirby games. 5 Pokemon RPGs. People still play Smash Bros. Ultimate and there's a ton of content for a new buyer to experience. 5000 tracks in Mario Kart 8. Then there's the rest of Nintendo catalogue. Even just being a Nintendo fan in general means years of content to get through so games will keep selling well beyond their initial launch.
 
MondoMega said:
We don't embed spreadsheets anymore for whatever reason so you're all gonna need to click this time; not as convenient I know, but I believe in you!

docs.google.com

Nintendo Million Sellers

Software Title,Units sold (m),Developer,Platform,Last Updated Wii Sports,82.90,Nintendo,Wii,2021/09 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe,61.97,Nintendo,NS,2024/03 Animal Crossing: New Horizons,45.36,Nintendo,NS,2024/03 Super Mario Bros.,40.24,Nintendo,FC,2014/12 Mario Kart Wii,37.38,Nintendo,Wii,2021/09 Super Sm...
docs.google.com docs.google.com
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This is like my quarterly gift. Always anticipate this when it’s fiscal season or white paper time :)
 
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Pikmin 4 is giving me those same feelings that Metroid Dread did when we got its first sales report. Glad it’s doing well, it’s outpacing the rest of it’s series… but with the combination of the marketing push it got, the huge install base of the Switch, and the very positive word of mouth, I can’t say I wasn’t expecting just a bit more, even if that isn’t entirely rational lol.

(but don’t mind me, just feeling unimaginable pain from those FE Engage numbers 😭)
 
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The quarterly updates is a good reminder how the success of the Switch has made people have unreasonable expectations. Some games are selling millions and blowing out franchise records and people are still disappointed.

I also think a lot of this disappointment is intentional. The goal for many is to be disappointed on the internet so they'll move the goal to whatever gets them there.
 
TOTK's hype has really died down post-launch once people played the game and realized how similar it was to BOTW. Not surprised sales slow down as a result, most post-launch discourse has been critical.

It's not going to have the evergreen legs of BOTW. And if the next mainline Zelda follows in the formula, expect a large dropoff in sales.
 
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Great numbers for Pikmin 4 will be interesting to see where it lands post holiday season, hoping for ~3-3.5 million lifetime. Wish Xenoblade 3 had already hit 2 million, but it should finally cross 2 million by the end of this FY though.
 
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Octavian said:
TOTK's hype has really died down post-launch once people played the game and realized how similar it was to BOTW. Not surprised sales slow down as a result.
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It shipped a million units in a weaker quarter where it already had to sell through 3M of unsold inventory from its massive Q1 shipment, and it hasn't even had its first holiday season. I don't think anyone needs to worry about anecdotal metrics like hype with numbers and circumstances like those.
 
HockeyBird said:
This whole discussion about whether the very successful sequel will get in front its the very successful prequel

34be3ad445154665d8dfbf8cbaf9a8cc.jpg


More BOTW owners means more people who will pick up the its direct sequel and TOTK being a major seller means more people will want to pick up BOTW to see what all the hype around the series is about. They each boost the other up. TOTK hasn't even been through its first holiday season yet. It's gonna be featured in Nintendo's holiday ads and it will get some "free" marketing come award season.
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If anything it seems that Totk is cannibalizing Botw sales. If my memory is not failing me BOTW was usually outselling other evergreen but now it was outselled by Smash, Odyssey, Animal Crossing and New Super Mario Bros U.
 
FamiBoards hype really has died down post-launch once people started polluting sales threads with absolutely inane takes based on a bare minimum of data.
 
Octavian said:
TOTK's hype has really died down post-launch once people played the game and realized how similar it was to BOTW. Not surprised sales slow down as a result, most post-launch discourse has been critical.

It's not going to have the evergreen legs of BOTW. And if the next mainline Zelda follows in the formula, expect a large dropoff in sales.
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That's laughably not true, but whatever to fit your own narrative I guess
 
Serebii said:
Main Series Pokémon sales

F-T76soXcAASNTO
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Pokemon SV also gonna surpass RB in Japan later


Top 20 NSW Games ( japan)
  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing New Horizons - 10.94m (++230k)
  2. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet/Violet 7.64m (++290k)
  3. NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 7.62m (+250k)
  4. [NSW] Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 7.24m (++280k)
  5. [NSW] Splatoon 3 - 6.54m (N/A)
  6. [NSW] Pokémon Sword/Shield - 6.03m (N/A)
  7. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 5.26m
  8. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise - 4.50m *** (Estimate)
  9. [NSW] Minecraft - 4.50m *** (Estimate)
  10. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 4.09m
  11. [NSW] Momotaro - 4.00m
  12. [NSW] Pokemon Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl - 3.87m
  13. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 3.79m (++260k)
  14. [NSW] Pokemon Legends Arceus - 3.64m
  15. [NSW] Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 3.51m (+250k)
  16. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 3.19m (++120k)
  17. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 2.91m
  18. [NSW] Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee 2.20m
  19. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 - 2.00m
  20. [NSW] Mario Party: Superstars - 1.95m (++180k)
 
balgajo said:
If anything it seems that Totk is cannibalizing Botw sales. If my memory is not failing me BOTW was usually outselling other evergreen but now it was outselled by Smash, Odyssey, Animal Crossing and New Super Mario Bros U.
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They're pretty much comparable to the sales from the some quarters last year; Smash, AC, MK and various other titles managed to outdo BOTW sometimes too then as well. I can't immediately see the numbers on the forum for the same quarter last year, but Q1 last year was like this:

famiboards.com

Updated sales numbers for Switch titles: Nintendo Switch Sports (4.84M), Mario Strikers: Battle League (1.91M), and more

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2022/220803_2e.pdf https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html updated sales numbers as of June 30, 2022 (+sales in the last quarter): Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 46.82M (+1.49M) Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 39.38M (+740K) Super Smash Bros...
famiboards.com famiboards.com

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 46.82M (+1.49M)
  • Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 39.38M (+740K)
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 28.82M (+650K)
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 27.14M (+590K)
  • Pokémon Sword/Shield - 24.50M (+230K)
  • Super Mario Odyssey - 23.93M (+430K)
  • Super Mario Party - 18.06M (+280K)
  • Pokémon Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl - 14.79M (+140K)
  • Pokemon: Let's Go! - 14.66M (+130K)
  • Ring Fit Adventure - 14.54M (+450K)
  • Nintendo Switch Sports - 4.84M
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land - 4.53M (+1.88M)
  • Mario Strikers: Battle League - 1.91M
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Am I the only one who saw the massive 3D World boost and spent way too many hours wondering what the hell happened there? Thought there was a sale or bundle that happened that I didn't hear about, didn't make the connection between all the Mario games selling very well this year as that's par for the course for most of them (think Superstars' boost is also bigger than normal but I must've just glossed over that as I'm not as interested in MP).

And I watched and liked the movie too!
 
Ryunosuke Naruhodo said:
Am I the only one who saw the massive 3D World boost and spent way too many hours wondering what the hell happened there? Thought there was a sale or bundle that happened that I didn't hear about, didn't make the connection between all the Mario games selling very well this year as that's par for the course for most of them (think Superstars' boost is also bigger than normal but I must've just glossed over that as I'm not as interested in MP).

And I watched and liked the movie too!
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Keep in mind that the update for the 3D world is a number over 6 months/2 quarters while everything else above it on the OP list is half that time. ~600k each quarter is in line with the rest of the evergreens.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
That's laughably not true, but whatever to fit your own narrative I guess
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a few examples:



at the very least, the general discourse around the game has been FAR more negative since people have played and digested the game. Compare this to the unabashed positive hype pre-release and the post-release honeymoon period before people beat the game.

I would argue I'm seeing far more negativity around TOTK than BOTW at similar points in their release trajectory. BOTW had more of an impact too due to its originality.
 
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Ryunosuke Naruhodo said:
Am I the only one who saw the massive 3D World boost and spent way too many hours wondering what the hell happened there? Thought there was a sale or bundle that happened that I didn't hear about, didn't make the connection between all the Mario games selling very well this year as that's par for the course for most of them (think Superstars' boost is also bigger than normal but I must've just glossed over that as I'm not as interested in MP).

And I watched and liked the movie too!
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Mario’s its own ecosystem now. The Movie pushed consumers into the brand and will play every game plastered Mario into it.

The Movie has solidified the Evergreen

And this is precisely how Nintendo will manage movies and series: to solidify their software. Don’t think about cinematic universes or crossovers. Nintendo will use media the same way Gamefreak has used rhe Pokemon anime
 
Octavian said:
a few examples:




at the very least, the general discourse around the game has been FAR more negative since people have played and digested the game
Compare this to the unabashed positive hype pre-release and into the post-release honeymoon period.

I would argue I'm seeing.fsr more negativity around TOTK than BOTW at similar points in their release trajectory.
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I think TotK is a better game that BotW on the whole in terms of beat-to-beat gameplay, but I definitely came to the realisation of "I don't think this game is as good as it could've been". Especially the story. Hand-on heart, I think it's the weakest story of the 3d games bar none, even if the highs are very great.

I feel like the slow revelation of it's quality is just leaning back into the Zelda cycle though. When Breath of the Wild 3/Tears of the Kingdom 2 releases, we'll see if people change their views towards TotK.
 
Mekanos said:
I'm a little surprised TOTK didn't cross 20 million, but I think it's clear at this point it won't pass BOTW. Obviously still a great result though, same with P4.

Loving the 3D World bump.
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BOTW took 6 years and a half years to get where it is today, TOTK does this already in 4 months. Granted, BOTW was basically THE game to get at Switch launch and since the Switch only just launched, it didn't have a big playerbase yet so it's still really impressive but TOTK has years to go still
 
Phendrift said:
Tears didn’t have as big of a jump as I thought, but with the launch sales as astronomical as they were, I think it’ll be hard to establish a baseline of what “good legs” will look like for it.

Like, even knowing BotW’s success I don’t think anyone predicted how big Tears’ launch would be. It’s kinda thrown everything out of whack for me.

Regardless, I’m curious how the holiday will treat it. That should tell us more.
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TotK actually makes a lot of sense to me and is doing about what i expected it to.

you release one of the most anticipated sequels to one of the most acclaimed games in one of the most acclaimed series of all time, it is going to be heavily front-loaded. not to mention, it's near the end of the switch's life. i fully expected this to sell gangbusters in the first month and then drop much lower than BotW in terms of legs. still, obviously overall, amazing sales.

proud of pikmin 4! hoping it'll pass 4 million in the end.
 
SoldierDelta said:
I think TotK is a better game that BotW on the whole in terms of beat-to-beat gameplay, but I definitely came to the realisation of "I don't think this game is as good as it could've been". Especially the story. Hand-on heart, I think it's the weakest story of the 3d games bar none, even if the highs are very great.

I feel like the slow revelation of it's quality is just leaning back into the Zelda cycle though. When Breath of the Wild 3/Tears of the Kingdom 2 releases, we'll see if people change their views towards TotK.
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Zelda cycle is a meme. Discourse generally stayed positive about OOT, TP, and BOTW all throughout the times they were relevant. MM and WW had negative reception before people warmed up to them.

It's only certain entries like SS and TOTK that got overrated at launch and needed critical re-evaluations. (SS has a 92+ MC despite wildly being seen as the weakest 3D Zelda, negative reception that caused even the devs to reevaluate the series!)
 
karmitt said:
Tears isn’t coming close to 30m, at least not without something related to their next console. That’s a steep drop.
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Nah your looking at it wrong. Extra shipment was around 3mil by end of june, This quarter was just mostly sell thru, 1mil shipment while lookJune, but sell thru was easily at or surpassed 2mil
 
Octavian said:
I would argue I'm seeing far more negativity around TOTK than BOTW at similar points in their release trajectory
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Once again:

meatbag said:
I’ll just reiterate, it’s better to wait for the holiday quarter before we talk about TotK legs. It was overshipped last quarter, so there were comparatively fewer units shipped this Q2
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Furthermore, TotK was heavily front-loaded, so this drop-off in shipment numbers was in line with expectations.

Let’s try not to extrapolate too much from a single quarter’s worth of data.
 
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Octavian said:
Zelda cycle is a meme. Discourse generally stayed positive about OOT, TP, and BOTW all throughout the times they were relevant. It's only certain entries like SS and TOTK that got overrated at launch and needed critical re-evaluations. (SS has a 92+ MC despite wildly being seen as the weakest 3D Zelda!)
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I think you need to hold on for that bolded honestly.

I’m no fan of the open air direction. But saying that is kinda being the Zelda cycle meme lol
 
DecoReturns said:
I think you need to hold on for that bolded honestly.

I’m no fan of the open air direction. But saying that is kinda being the Zelda cycle meme lol
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Zelda cycle is outright wrong.

OOT, TP, BOTW people have stayed largely consistently positive about.
MM and WW had negative receptions prior to people warming up to them.
SS and TOTK had massively positive receptions upon launch only to be negatively re-evaluated after.

And that's ignoring the tons of handheld games which has varying reception.

There's no consistent trend, it's a wide variety of general receptions.
 
Octavian said:
Zelda cycle is outright wrong.

OOT, TP, BOTW people have stayed largely consistently positive about.
MM and WW had negative receptions prior to people warming up to them.
SS and TOTK had massively positive receptions upon launch only to be negatively re-evaluated after.

There's no consistent trend, it's a wide variety of reception
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It’s been 5 months.
 
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